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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 20th, 2024 at 10:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

Continuing to zag when it comes to quarterback development and roster construction, the Packers centered their offseason around a Jordan Love commitment. After seeing a promising second half from their Aaron Rodgers successor nearly produce a voyage to the NFC championship game, the Pack are back in the franchise-QB payment business.

Love’s monster extension complements an offense that lost two of its veteran pillars — in Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari — as the team continues to build around lofty investments on the defensive side. But the Packers’ Love decision, which is certainly a different route when it comes to an experience-to-dollars ratio, will define the franchise for the foreseeable future.

Extensions and restructures:

When Rodgers agreed to his first extension during his 2008 starter debut season — a six-year, $63.52MM deal, illustrating where QB contracts have gone — it did not check in as a record-setting payday. It was not particularly close, either. Carson Palmer‘s Bengals extension outflanked Rodgers’ first Packers deal. So did Peyton Manning‘s 2004 Colts payday, along with Tom Brady‘s first Patriots re-up and Ben Roethlisberger‘s initial Steelers extension. That gave the Packers a runway to better learn about Rodgers’ capabilities. The organization was certainly proven right and suddenly had a bargain deal at quarterback until the 2013 offseason.

Today’s skyrocketing QB market changed the equation for Love and the team, which needed to match an NFL-record AAV for a player with 18 regular-season starts. This era of one-upping differs from how a few teams handled QB contracts even following Rodgers’ 2013 extension. No one topped the Packer QB’s $22MM-per-year deal until the 2016 offseason. A host of deals in 2015 (for Roethlisberger, Wilson, Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) settled between $20MM and $21.9MM per year, acknowledging Rodgers’ place in the game. For the most part, these sort of acknowledgments no longer exist.

Love’s deal not coming with a discount keeps the Packers in the high-cost QB business, as 2023 — which featured near-record-tying (pre-Russell Wilson, at least) dead money from the Rodgers trade — did not bring a reprieve. Diving right back into a top-market contract, as Rodgers’ deal came off the books this year, ramps up the pressure for Brian Gutekunst and Co. to be right on the player they traded up for in 2020.

Both parties wanted this deal done by training camp, and Love held in to complete the process. The Packers agreeing to a half-measure extension, rather than pick up a fully guaranteed fifth-year option on a player who entered 2023 with one career start, provided Love leverage. The QB capitalized, joining Tua Tagovailoa in this regard, on his contract-year status. The Packers would have faced a $40MM-plus 2025 cap hold had Love played out this season and brought the threat of a franchise tag. Whereas teams have held more control during this process by extending a first-round quarterback after his third season, Green Bay’s outlier three-year apprenticeship program did not give the team that option. After a promising close to last season, Love was able to exert more control in this process.

Struggling during much of the season’s first half, Love led the NFL in QBR from Weeks 11-18 — a stretch that included 18 TD passes and one INT. The four-year veteran was then tremendous in the Packers’ wild-card upset over the Cowboys, before leading the NFC’s first competitive No. 7 seed to a narrow loss over the eventual NFC champion 49ers. Love obviously made for an atypical extension candidate, but the Packers are all in.

Contract structure was believed to be the final issue for Love’s camp. A team that does not do post-Year 1 guarantees beyond signing bonuses again bent for a quarterback, and Love secured the increasingly popular rolling guarantee structure on this deal.

Love’s 2025 salary is guaranteed at signing, and his 2026 base salary is partially guaranteed already. That 2026 figure will become fully guaranteed in 2025. That structure pertains to Love’s 2027 base salary as well. The team guaranteed $20MM of the QB’s ’27 base ($41.9MM) for injury at signing; that $20MM shifts to a full guarantee a year early. Love did remarkably well on this contract and will be positioned, should his late-season form be indicative of his career trajectory, to cash in again before age 30.

The Packers took care of Clark before his contract year, bringing up an extension earlier this offseason and completing the agreement before training camp. Despite coming into the league in 2016, Clark will not turn 29 until October. The Pack should have more prime years coming from the former first-round pick — one of six first-rounders still on Green Bay’s defense — and they completed a deal without going into the top 10 on a swiftly rising D-tackle market. Clark’s $21.33MM AAV both marked a notable raise and the 11th-highest-paid DT accord.

Keeping with the Pack’s non-QB standard, the only guaranteed money in Clark’s deal comes from his signing bonus. But the eighth-year DT is owed a $7.5MM roster bonus next March. That ups the practical guarantee to $25MM. It would cost the Packers $17MM in dead money to move on from Clark in 2026, due to signing bonus proration. This gives the veteran a good chance of staying on this through-2027 deal for at least three seasons. Clark is due an $11MM roster bonus in 2026.

The UCLA alum ranks seventh in starts (109) by a Packer D-lineman. He can move into first all time on this contract; Dave Hanner (1953-64) holds that mark at 141.

Free agency additions:

Although Hard Knocks primarily focused on the Giants’ Saquon Barkley loss, it also revealed surprise on Giants GM Joe Schoen‘s part upon learning McKinney’s contract.After factoring in a McKinney extension upon letting Julian Love walk in 2023, the Giants did not keep him off the market for the transition tag sum ($13.8MM). That may have been a mistake. The former second-round pick proceeded to score a top-four safety contract, with the Packers paying up to address an issue.

Green Bay moved on from its top three safeties last year (Darnell Savage. Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford) and paid McKinney, who submitted two quality Giants seasons and two injury-plagued years. After a McKinney ATV accident led to him missing much of the 2022 campaign, Pro Football Focus graded him as the No. 4 overall safety last season. McKinney, 26, represents an out-of-character move from the Packers, who are not known for paying safeties or signing off on — even in the Gutekunst era — top-market free agency accords.

McKinney played the Jessie Bates role on this year’s market. As another macro safety evaluation appeared to take place this year — leading to the releases of several prominent veterans and a slew of mid-market payments for unrestricted free agents — McKinney’s price came in nearly $8MM higher (in terms of AAV) than any other UFA safety. After Bates (four years, $64MM) rewarded the Falcons for their high-cost addition, the Packers won a bidding war for McKinney, who has also shown quality ball skills in his career. The Alabama alum intercepted five passes in 2021 and three last season. Referring to himself as the game’s best safety, McKinney will attempt to prove it in Wisconsin.

Perhaps the most notable participant on a historically busy day at the running back position, the Packers said goodbye to a seven-year regular (Aaron Jones) and brought in Jacobs. The five-year Raiders starter is three years younger than Jones, and while the former has not proven as dynamic, the incumbent approaching his 30th birthday undoubtedly played into Green Bay’s thinking here. Jacobs, 26, won the 2022 rushing title but is coming off a far less productive year on the franchise tag. The Packers will bet on more prime years remaining for Jacobs, who was part of last year’s famous RB macro evaluation.

The Raiders, Giants and Cowboys respectively not extending their tagged running backs — after the Packers had given Jones a pay cut and the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) and Vikings (Dalvin Cook) had released longtime starters — prompted a Zoom meeting among key backs about their state of the union. Jacobs, who rampaged for an NFL-high 2,053 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022, accumulated only 1,101 last season — before missing four games due to multiple contusions. After producing the fifth-most rushing yards over expected in 2022 (158), Jacobs finished with the fifth-worst number (minus-86) last year.

Matt LaFleur admitted he was caught off-guard by how the Packers’ running back situation shook out, and Jacobs also indicated he turned down more money elsewhere. More pass-game opportunities should be expected to emerge for Jacobs, who did catch 107 combined passes from 2021-22.

Green Bay’s Jones-to-Jacobs transition is also interesting due to the younger back having more career touches (1,502) compared to Jones (1,449). Jacobs has missed 10 career games; since 2019, Jones has also missed 10. Six of those came last season. While the Packers guaranteed Jacobs just $12.5MM, he is due a $5.93MM signing bonus if on Green Bay’s roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year.

This profiles as a two-year deal before a year-to-year scenario takes shape in 2026. Even if Jacobs’ 2025 roster bonus is included, he still fetched far less in fully guaranteed money than Barkley, who secured $26MM from the Eagles despite a well-documented injury history and a higher touch total.

Re-signings:

Adding slot cornerback to his duties along with return specialist, Nixon scored a solid veteran deal two years after following Rich Bisaccia from Las Vegas. The Raiders nontendered Nixon as an RFA in 2022, leading to Bisaccia’s new team reaching out. Nixon mostly focused on a return-game role in 2022; he blazed to first-team All-Pro status as a kick returner. Nixon repeated that feat in 2023, and the Packers re-signed him just before the NFL radically revamped its kickoff setup. That change stands to make Nixon more valuable.

Of course, Nixon receiving a $6MM-per-year deal was also contingent on him continuing as the team’s slot corner. The Packers abandoned their Rasul Douglas slot experiment during the 2022 season and went into last year with Nixon in that role. He played 937 defensive snaps — by far a career high — and while PFF graded him outside the top 80 and Pro-Football-Reference’s coverage metrics applied higher numbers in terms of completion percentage (77.8%) and passer rating (104.8), the Packers clearly value the former UDFA in a cornerback group that features little certainty beyond Jaire Alexander.

Dillon did not do nearly as well in free agency. On a crowded RB market, the inside grinder settled for a deal that provided next to no guaranteed money. Jones’ powerful complementary option for four seasons, Dillon averaged a career-worst 3.4 yards per carry last year — his first under 4.1 per tote.

The former second-round pick has been effective in the past, and while he said a bit more money may have been out there for him, the Green Bay aficionado — Dillon plans to camp in the city following his NFL career — entered training camp on the roster bubble.

Notable losses:

As Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul ran wild during the 2020 NFC championship game, Bakhtiari’s absence created one of the bigger what-ifs in offensive line history. The Packers saw an ACL tear sustained during a New Year’s Eve practice change their left tackle course, as Bakhtiari — a first-team All-Pro that season and a five-time All-Pro over his career — has been unable to stay healthy since.

The stalwart LT missed all but 27 snaps in 2021, returning to the sideline after debuting in a meaningless Week 18 game, and — after showing promising form in 11 games back in 2022 — missed almost all of last season. This all pointed to a 2024 separation.

Green Bay had restructured Bakhtiari’s deal in 2021 and ’22, immediately seeing the four-year, $92MM extension — only Rodgers and Love have signed more lucrative deals among Packers — become an issue quickly due to the once-dependable LT signing it weeks before his knee injury. Bakhtiari, who has undergone five knee surgeries since that fateful practice, will count $18.15MM in dead money this year. Like Rodgers’ dead cap hit in 2023, Bakhtiari’s contract will be off the team’s books for good after a year. The 11-year veteran, 33 in September, wants to keep playing but has not caught on anywhere.

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Browns

August 20th, 2024 at 10:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

Year 2 of the Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland did not go according to plan for team or player in 2023. A lingering shoulder injury limited the high-priced passer to six games and set off a number of changes made in the lineup at the quarterback position. The Browns managed to post a record of 11-6 while relying on Joe Flacco down the stretch and managing a slew of other ailments on offense.

Nick Chubb is among the key players still on the mend for Cleveland as the team looks to improve on a 2023 wild-card berth. Stability on the sidelines and in the front office should help that effort, and the Browns return one of the league’s top defenses. Once again, however, attention will be placed on Watson’s ability to stay on the field and deliver on his fully guaranteed contract. Three years remain on his monster pact, one which is set to carry a record-breaking cap charge in 2024.

Trades:

Amari Cooper has delivered during his time in Cleveland, racking up over 2,400 yards and 14 touchdowns across the past two years. The five-time Pro Bowler has thus served as a needed No. 1 wideout on his third career team, but finding consistent complementary options has been an organizational priority recently. Elijah Moore was acquired via trade last March, and the same was true of Jeudy one year later.

The latter struggled to live up to expectations in Denver, with his best campaign coming in 2022 (during which he posted a 67-927-6 statline). Jeudy – alongside fellow Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton – was frequently mentioned as a trade candidate near the past two trade deadlines, but no move was made in either case. The Broncos then set a high trade price on Jeudy — a first-round pick — during the 2023 offseason. The first year with Sean Payton at the helm was beneficial for Sutton’s production much more than it was for Jeudy’s. Months later, the team was willing to move on for a much lower return.

The former first-rounder made it known after his Cleveland arrival that he asked to be dealt ahead of the 2023 campaign. Payton rejected that request at first, but Jeudy repeated it after the campaign, one in which his statistical output took a step back. The fact the Alabama product was entering a contract year at the time of the swap helps explain the underwhelming trade terms from Denver’s perspective. Jeudy quickly worked out a multiyear extension with the Browns, however, eliminating the chance of a free agent departure after his fifth-year option season.

That three-year, $52.5MM deal contains $41MM in guarantees. It ensures Jeudy will remain in place through 2027 and represents a rather notable investment in his ability to develop into at least a consistent starting option. Numerous receiver deals have eclipsed the value of Jeudy’s pact in recent months, but Cleveland is clearly banking on solid play from him with or without Cooper leading the way down the road.

A trio of Cooper, Jeudy and Moore should give the Browns their best WR room since the Watson acquisition. Especially if Chubb misses time early in the campaign, an efficient passing game will be key to the Browns’ success on offense. If Jeudy acclimates well in an environment he chose to enter, the former No. 15 overall pick will be a key contributor in that regard.

Harris played out his rookie contract with the Browns, making 40 appearances and four starts. He departed on the open market by taking a one-year Seahawks deal worth $2.51MM and thus earning the chance to compete for a starting role. Seattle recently signed Connor Williams, however, providing the team with a more experienced option in the middle.

The Browns, meanwhile, have run into injury trouble at center. The latest example of that was backup Luke Wypler suffering an ankle injury in the team’s preseason opener which will require surgery. Harris, 25, will thus return to Cleveland in position to serve as a No. 2 option to Ethan Pocic. The trade saw Harris and a seventh-round pick come back in return for a sixth-rounder.

Free agency additions:

Hicks’ arrival will allow him to reunite with defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The pair worked together in Philadelphia at the start of Hicks’ career. The former third-rounder developed into a full-time starter during that span, notching five interceptions in 2016. He turned in a healthy three-year stretch in Arizona before spending the past two seasons with the Vikings.

Hicks was limited to 13 games in 2023, but he still managed a fifth consecutive season with triple-digit tackles. The 32-year-old may not be expected to replicate his production against the pass from his Eagles tenure, but he should handle starting duties with his fourth team. Cleveland’s edge rush and secondary are set to remain strong in 2024. Still, the linebacker position faces questions marks. Hicks should provide dependable first-team play at a reasonable cost.

Bush, by contrast, represents a low-risk, high-reward investment. The former top-10 pick failed to live up to expectations in Pittsburgh, leading to a one-year Seahawks deal last offseason. Bush, 26, played sparingly on defense and was not a key special teams contributor. This season will provide him with another opportunity to carve out a rotational role and thus help his market value, though.

While Joe Flacco expressed interest in a new Browns deal after his surprisingly successful tenure to close out the season, Cleveland explored other backup options. That led to Winston connections quickly developing. The Browns were known to have the former No. 1 pick on their radar ahead of the new league year, although they were joined in that respect by the Titans and Giants.

Winston has continued to express interest in a starting gig despite serving as a Saints backup for most of the past four seasons. The 30-year-old’s last full campaign in a No. 1 role was 2019, when he memorably closed out his Buccaneers tenure with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Watson’s history of missed time with the Browns certainly suggests the door could open to notable playing time for Winston this season. In that event, the latter could help his free agent stock considerably with a strong showing. At a minimum, though, the former No. 1 overall pick should provide the team with a veteran backup capable of handling first-team duties over an extended stretch if needed.

Watson and Winston occupy the top two spots on the QB depth chart, and Huntley is in competition with 2023 fifth-rounder Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the No. 3 gig. After joining the Ravens as a UDFA, Huntley made a total of 10 starts (including one in the playoffs) across four seasons. That experience led to interest from the Steelers and could give him a leg up on Thompson-Robinson (whose struggles as a rookie helped inform the move to Flacco as starter), but limited guarantees make Huntley’s hold on a roster spot a tenuous one.

Jefferson spent five of his first seven NFL seasons in Seattle, but he has not managed to find a long-term home in recent years. The 31-year-old played single campaigns with the Bills (2020), Raiders (2021) and Jets (2023) while remaining a regular contributor at every stop. Jefferson set a new career high in sacks last season with six, and he has posted at least three every year since 2018. While his deal pales in comparison to the one Dalvin Tomlinson landed last offseason, Jefferson should be counted on as a key contributor along the interior for Cleveland.

With Chubb’s health and return timeline a question mark, it came as little surprise the Browns made multiple backfield additions. Hines suffered an ACL tear during an offseason jet ski accident, and he missed the 2023 campaign as a result. The chance to reunite with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey (after working with him in Buffalo) and handle the role of returner appealed to Hines when making his free agent decision. If the former Colts contributor can regain his previous form upon returning to health, he could thrive as a pass-catching specialist and third-phase producer.

Foreman’s path to a roster spot is narrower. The 28-year-old entered training camp in competition with Pierre Strong Jr. for the third spot on the RB depth chart. That role will be in place only until Chubb returns, of course, and neither player has considerable guaranteed money on their contract. Foreman’s 4.2 career yards per carry average could make him an attractive option for outside teams during roster cutdowns if he becomes available, though.

Re-signings:

The Browns did not make any major splashes in terms of adding outside free agents, and Smith was the only player listed amongst PFR’s top 50 options on the open market. The three-time Pro Bowler made his return to the AFC North last offseason by taking a one-year Cleveland pact. A former Ravens draftee, Smith remained productive when healthy during his time with the Packers (2019-21, 26 sacks) and Vikings (2022, 10 sacks). A first-team role awaited him upon arrival with the Browns, but his 5.5 sacks were his fewest in a full campaign since 2017.

Nevertheless, Smith landed a notable deal to remain with the Browns. The former fourth-rounder received a signing bonus of nearly $11MM, and he will collect a $2MM roster bonus early in 2025. Smith should be expected to remain Myles Garrett’s main complement, although Ogbonnia Okoronkwo logged a career-high 53% snap share in his debut Browns campaign. The latter posted 4.5 sacks, and continued development could cut into Smith’s playing time and production moving forward.

While Jefferson will take on a notable workload with Cleveland, Harris should also maintain a key rotational role given the team’s decision to retain him through 2025. The 33-year-old’s snap share in 2023 (42%) was his lowest since 2015, and his statistical output took a step back as a result. Harris has starting experience dating back to his time with the Broncos and Seahawks, however, so he will be capable of handling an uptick in usage if injuries or poor play become an issue for Cleveland’s new arrivals on the D-line.

McLeod was not a full-time starter in 2023, his first season with the Browns. That made this past campaign the first since his rookie year in which he did not start every contest. The 12-year veteran gave thought to retiring after this past season, one in which a biceps injury limited him to 10 games. However, he will carry on for one more year in search of a second Super Bowl ring. McLeod will again offer Cleveland a highly experienced backup behind Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill in 2024.  

Bojorquez has spent the past two seasons with the Browns after his time with the Bills and Packers. The New Mexico alum led the NFL in yards per punt during the 2020 season, and while he has not been able to duplicate that feat in recent years he has remained consistent. Keeping Bojorquez in the fold will allow Cleveland to have multiyear continuity on special teams with kicker Dustin Hopkins and long snapper Charley Hughlett still in place for 2024 and beyond.

Notable losses:

Flacco first joined the Browns in November, and he made his first start in Week 12. The former Super Bowl MVP’s level of play over the next five weeks (4-1 record, 13 touchdown passes, 90.2 passer rating) quickly put to rest questions about who would serve as starter during the playoffs with Watson sidelined. Flacco was rested for Cleveland’s meaningless regular-season finale, but he was not at his best in the wild-card round. A two-interception game (bringing his total in that department to 10 on the year) ended in a 45-14 loss to the Texans.

In the aftermath of that contest, it appeared a mutual interest existed between team and player for their relationship to continue. To that end, the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year was surprised he wound up needing to find a new home in free agency. The Eagles made an offer for what would have been a reunion after Flacco spent part of the 2021 season in Philadelphia. Instead, the team would up trading for Kenny Pickett.

Flacco signed with the Colts to serve as a replacement for Gardner Minshew. Indianapolis will hope to have better health from Anthony Richardson in 2024, something which would keep Flacco in the role of mentor. The 39-year-old has shown, however, that under the right circumstances he can step in on short notice and keep an offense afloat if needed despite his age.

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5 Key Stories: 8/11/24 – 8/18/24

August 18th, 2024 at 5:29pm CST by Adam La Rose

As the preseason rolls on, teams around the league continue to evaluate their rosters as well as their contract situations. A number of finanal decisions were made in recent days, while several other cases are unresolved. In case you missed any of the top stories from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Falcons Trade For Judon, Sign Simmons: The Falcons made a pair of high-profile additions, both of which will help on defense. Atlanta sent a third-round pick to New England for edge rusher Matt Judon. The four-time Pro Bowler expressed frustration with a lack of a Patriots extension, leading to interest on the trade front from outside teams. Notably, though, no multi-year commitment has been made on the Falcons’ part, leaving Judon on track for free agency in March. After hosting Justin Simmons, meanwhile, Atlanta added the Pro Bowl safety on a one-year deal including $7.5MM guaranteed. Simmons, 30, had a lengthy spell in free agency after his Broncos release but still managed to land a lucrative deal. With four second-team All-Pro nods on his resume, he will form an intriguing safety tandem alongside Jessie Bates for the 2024 campaign. Judon and Simmons figure to raise Atlanta’s expectations on defense by a considerable margin as the team eyes a playoff berth.
  • Steelers, 49ers Have Aiyuk Trade In Place: No final decision has been made with respect to Brandon Aiyuk, but the Steelers and 49ers now have a trade agreement worked out. Pittsburgh remains a destination the 26-year-old is highly interested in, but San Francisco still has an offer on the table. The latter team may have a small edge in terms of receiving an Aiyuk commitment with the former representing a fallback option. Both the Patriots and Browns had serious trade talks, but the second-team All-Pro did not want to play in New England or Cleveland. His decision rests on remaining in the Bay Area with a team facing serious cap challenges in the near future or joining the Steelers and a new-look offense which features quarterback questions. With the regular season nearing, an end to this saga should be expected in short order.
  • Jets’ Reddick Submits Trade Request: The Jets acquired Haason Reddick via trade this offseason, but no extension agreement was in place once the swap was final. The Pro Bowl edge rusher has since skipped minicamp and training camp, and the lack of a deal prompted a trade request. To little surprise, New York general manager Joe Douglas quickly confirmed no consideration will be given to moving on from Reddick, who has one year remaining on his pact. The Jets reportedly made at least one offer around the time of the trade, but the team is not willing to negotiate further until the 29-year-old ends his holdout. That effort has resulted in daily fines being accumulated, and Reddick could lose part of his signing bonus as well. With both sides dug in, it will be interesting to see if a resolution of some kind (most likely incentives being added to the contract) is worked out in time for Week 1.
  • McCarthy To Miss Vikings Rookie Season: J.J. McCarthy suffered a meniscus injury which required surgery. It was clear right away an absence of some kind would be in store, but the procedure wound up being a full repair; as such, the first-round rookie will miss the 2024 campaign. McCarthy entered training camp as Minnesota’s backup to Sam Darnold, but he will now not be able to compete for the No. 1 gig or at least continue his development through the fall. The Vikings let Kirk Cousins depart in free agency and signed Darnold to only a one-year deal. McCarthy – one of the 2024 class’ youngest passers and a national champion with Michigan this past season – is firmly in the team’s plans for the long-term future. He will enter 2025 with merely one preseason game of experience, however.
  • Owusu-Koramoah Lands Browns Extension: Known to be on the Browns’ radar for a long-term deal, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah worked out a extension which will keep him in place through 2027. The Pro Bowl linebacker secured $25MM in total guarantees and an AAV of $12.5MM. The latter figure ranks sixth amongst middle linebackers and demonstrates the confidence Cleveland has in his ability to remain a key producer on defense. The 24-year-old totaled 101 tackles, 3.5 sacks and a pair of interceptions last season; replicating that production in the future will prove this investment to be worthwhile. The Browns underwent many changes at the second level this offseason, but Owusu-Koramoah will be a constant for the LB unit now and moving forward.

Offseason In Review: New Orleans Saints

August 17th, 2024 at 9:02pm CST by Sam Robinson

Checking in as a lower-profile team since Drew Brees‘ retirement and Sean Payton‘s exit, the Saints have not deviated too far from their Payton-era M.O. No rebuild has taken place, and GM Mickey Loomis‘ cap gymnastics remain in high gear. But the team’s fight has produced solidly middle-class residency post-Brees. This offseason brought some attempted fixes and the usual avalanche of restructures. Will they be enough to move the Saints out of this unremarkable sector they have populated for the past few years?

Extensions and restructures:

We will go ahead and assume none of our remaining Offseason In Review offerings will feature this level of restructure volume, but the Saints’ perpetual quest to delay a rebuild/cap reset is one of the NFL’s more underrated offseason features. Loomis continues to creatively reach cap compliance — to the point it is almost easier to name the starters whose contracts were not adjusted. More than $80MM over the cap entering the offseason — Loomis has moved under the cap from deeper in the red before — the Saints benefited from the $30.6MM cap spike.

When the Saints signed Carr, they gave him a $70MM practical guarantee. The 11th-year veteran will be due a $10MM roster bonus (already guaranteed) next year and has $10MM of his 2025 base salary ($30MM) guaranteed. More than $40MM in signing bonus money is now on New Orleans’ books from 2025-28, with three void years included in the deal, as this restructure added $4.6MM to each prorated figure.

This rework will tie Carr to the Saints through at least 2025. Before any other restructures (which may well happen, as this is New Orleans), Carr would cost the team more than $28MM to release in 2026.

The Saints did some work at linebacker this offseason, signing off on another Davis deal before giving Warner a midlevel second contract. Thriving in Dennis Allen‘s scheme, Davis he has been one of this NFL period’s best off-ball linebackers. He is 5-for-5 in All-Pro honors (one first team, four second teams) since his age-30 season, continuing as a three-down player who boosts the Saints’ pass rush in addition to his traditional LB responsibilities. Davis has been a revelation in New Orleans, registering 29 sacks since his 2018 arrival. In terms of off-ball LBs, no one else has more than 23 in that span.

Like ex-Davis teammate Chris Harris at his peak, Pro Football Focus views the do-it-all linebacker in rare air. The advanced metrics site has rated the aging defender as a top-eight off-ball LB in each of the past five seasons. The Saints have used the 12-year vet on between 97-100% of their defensive snaps over the past four, and without noticeable slippage at 35, Davis secured more than two thirds of his 2025 salary guaranteed on this deal — his fourth Saints contract. A key part of Allen’s defenses during the Saints’ late-2010s surge, the perennially underrated defender has a decent shot at playing an age-36 season in New Orleans.

While predicting someone to outlast Davis has been unwise, Werner’s contract puts him in position to anchor the team’s defensive second level after the stalwart’s retirement. Though the Saints can escape this contract fairly easily in 2026, Werner is signed through 2027 on a deal that ranks 18th among non-rush ‘backers.

Rather than try his luck in a contract year and hit free agency, the former second-round pick took an offer in line with an expanding LB middle class. The top of this position’s market thinned this offseason, but teams continue to flood the $6-$10MM-per-year range here. Werner became a full-time player in 2023, logging an 88% snap rate. The Saints expect the 25-year-old defender to build on that run in the mid-2020s.

Signed shortly after the 2022 draft, Mathieu has continued a strong career in his hometown. The two-time Super Bowl starter has not commanded a deal in line with his Chiefs pact (three years, $42MM back in 2019) but remains a productive player. The Saints gave Mathieu a second contract this offseason, one that created $6MM-plus in cap space. Mathieu, 31, secured 2024 guarantees that were not previously in place, though the through-2025 deal does not necessarily ensure the Honey Badger will be back next season.

Lastly, the Saints adjusted Lattimore’s contract in a way that would make him easier to trade. Though, time is running out for that to matter in 2024. The team inserted option bonuses into Lattimore’s contract, which has now been thrice restructured. The $2.76MM 2024 bonus does not need to be paid until just before Week 1, but it would still be reasonable for the Saints to pay the bonus and then trade Lattimore in-season — depending on the offers that emerge. For several weeks now, however, the team has expected to retain Lattimore for an eighth season.

The Pro Bowl cornerback missed seven games last season and 10 in 2022. Some within the organization took issue with the pace at which Lattimore recovered from a lacerated kidney (2022) and last year’s ankle injury. The Saints also considered trades in March, with teams showing interest. Several clubs believed the Saints were indeed shopping Lattimore, whose five-year, $97MM extension runs through 2026. For now, the four-time Pro Bowler remains a Saint. But this will be a situation to monitor if New Orleans starts slowly and Lattimore stays healthy. That said, the 28-year-old CB fits in on a defense flooded with veterans.

Next year’s salary cap number will not surface for months, but the Saints are projected to be $36MM higher than any other team. OverTheCap has New Orleans slotted at $95MM-plus over the projected 2025 salary ceiling. This would be another big test for Loomis, who would face more difficult choices if a fourth straight season goes by without a playoff berth.

Free agency additions:

While this free agency period was less eventful than last year’s Carr-centered project, the Saints added some complementary pieces. One is a high-upside play to address a position that has suddenly become vulnerable.

Young joins a Saints team that saw Cam Jordan post just two sacks — admittedly in an injury-plagued season — in 2023. Payton Turner has also failed to take off after being a first-round pick. The Saints relied on former UDFA Carl Granderson to anchor their pass rush last season, and while he delivered 8.5 sacks and 20 QB hits, the team needs more help as Jordan enters his age-35 season. Enter Young, who stood as one of the most high-variance free agents in recent memory.

Looking like a future star during his 2020 rookie year, Young saw a severe knee injury sidetrack his career in 2021. A torn ACL and ruptured patellar tendon kept the former Defensive Rookie of the Year on the shelf for over a year, but last season brought rejuvenation to the point several teams contacted the Commanders about a trade. The 49ers gave up a third-round compensatory choice for Young, who matched his career-high with 7.5 sacks last season and established a new high-water mark with 15 QB hits. These are not eye-popping numbers, but Young played 19 games last season after losing most of his previous two.

Of course, Young needed the full offseason to rehab a separate issue. A neck injury cost Young Week 1 of last season, and although the four-year veteran played through it, the matter affected his trade market. Young, 25, underwent surgery but has since returned to practice. His health history prompted the Saints to build a contract around per-game roster bonuses; those comprise $7.99MM of Young’s outlay.

As Montez Sweat‘s durability (and production while Young was out) keyed a $24.5MM-per-year Bears extension, Young is deep in “prove it” territory. The former No. 2 overall pick will attempt to rebuild his value, and it will probably take a mostly healthy season for a multiyear offer to form. Otherwise, Young may be on a Jadeveon Clowney-like career arc.

While Drue Tranquill fetched a three-year deal worth $19MM to remain a Chief, Gay could only command a $3MM pact in free agency. Gay has made 47 career starts, and the former second-round pick notched nine tackles for loss (88 total) in just 13 games in 2022. Gay only made 58 stops in 16 games last season, however. The two-time Super Bowl starter has never seen a snap rate north of 70%, and given the Saints’ LB composition, that is unlikely to occur in New Orleans. Gay, 26, can hope to use this season to better his 2025 market.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

Jettisoning a complex contract marked an appropriate ending for the Saints and Thomas, as the sides enjoyed a torrid start before an extension soon gave way to the former All-Pro becoming one of the NFL’s most injury-prone players. No team has signed Thomas, who would be going into an age-31 season after having missed 47 games during the 2020s. Last season actually brought Thomas’ highest participation rate (10 games) than any since 2019, but the Saints could not realistically continue to roster the eight-year veteran. It was a bit strange they circled back to Thomas in 2023.

Still holding the NFL’s single-season reception record (149), Thomas earned his five-year, $96.25MM extension ahead of that 2019 season. He posted back-to-back first-team All-Pro slates, becoming a lead cast member during the Saints’ late-2010s resurgence. Thomas joined Alvin Kamara as elite skill players in Brees’ twilight years, but the 2020 season provided an unfortunate harbinger of a freefall.

Multiple injuries, including an ankle malady, sidelined Thomas in 2020. He then missed all of 2021, which featured a dispute with the Saints regarding a recovery timetable. In 2022, Thomas played three games before a toe injury intervened. Despite Thomas’ 2023 contract being framed as a one-year deal — before yet another malady (knee) shut him down — the Saints are paying $11.2MM in 2024 dead money and $9.2MM in 2025. Thomas’ 565 career catches trail only Marques Colston in franchise history. Injuries derailed a potential Hall of Fame career.

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Offseason In Review: Tennessee Titans

August 15th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Barely a year after firing GM Jon Robinson, Amy Adams Strunk pulled the plug on the second high-profile staff extension she authorized back in 2022. Firing Mike Vrabel does not bring a full-on reset for the Titans, but the owner has given GM Ran Carthon the keys. The second-year decision-maker set out to load up his roster around Will Levis‘ rookie contract, leading to some high-priced free agency moves.

As the Titans look to pick up the pieces following a down (and injury-riddled) past two seasons, they also said goodbye to one of the greatest players in team history. With Derrick Henry gone, the Titans — who fired Robinson in December 2022 — have stripped their offense of nearly all the previous GM’s investments. This is Carthon’s show now, and the Titans will attempt to justify their Levis confidence this season.

Coaching/front office:

The Vrabel-Carthon-Adams Strunk partnership soured fast. Although Carthon said he was not in the meeting when Adams Strunk decided to fire Vrabel, the GM benefitted in the form of full roster control. Vrabel had maximized some moderately well-regarded Titans rosters, leading the team to four straight winning seasons and three playoff berths. Tennessee was believed to have a trade chip due to Vrabel’s standing in the game, but in not wanting to see trade talks impede an immediate coaching search, Adams Strunk went through with a much-discussed firing.

Adams Strunk had signed Vrabel and Robinson to extensions shortly after the 2021 season; she will be paying two HCs and two GMs for the foreseeable future. For all of Vrabel’s accomplishments — which includes a Coach of the Year honor, an AFC championship game venture, two division titles and a No. 1 seed — he butted heads with the team’s owner last season.

Carthon’s role became an issue for the coach, who suggested to Adams Strunk she name the ex-49ers exec assistant GM. Vrabel preferred former interim GM Ryan Cowden. This surely did not go over well with Carthon, even though he attempted to distance himself from the firing (however, a report of a rift surfaced late last year). Adams Strunk also considered firing Vrabel after the 2022 season, and she balked at the HC’s request for roster control.

Not exactly pleased with Vrabel’s trip to Foxborough during the Titans’ bye week last season (to be inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame), Adams Strunk took a risk by jettisoning one of the NFL’s most respected leaders. But Vrabel’s inability to land another HC job during this year’s cycle undoubtedly affected his stock. He will join ex-mentor Bill Belichick on the 2025 coaching carousel. At 49, Vrabel may have a better chance of landing another gig.

The Titans’ Pierce effort did not get off the ground, and Callahan — after five seasons as a non-play-calling OC — became the pick soon after. An extension of the Sean McVay coaching tree (due to being a Zac Taylor lieutenant), Callahan played a central role in a Bengals ascent that included back-to-back AFC championship game appearances for the first time in franchise history.

Vrabel operated as a CEO coach; Adams Strunk’s next hire will have more in-game control. The former Joe Burrow mentor will have his first chance to call plays this season, injecting some uncertainty into the Titans’ proceedings. But they have one of the architects of a quality NFL turnaround. Adams Strunk will hope hiring Callahan, 40, will unlock some levels for a scuffling offense. Taylor being able to retain his coordinators (Callahan, Lou Anarumo) for five seasons was interesting given the team’s resurgence, but after being on the interview circuit for a bit, Callahan will get to work on what looks like a more difficult project, with Levis nowhere near the level of prospect Burrow was.

Wilson stands as the team’s top assistant. This gig comes a year after the Eagles passed over their secondary coach for DC, leading him to Baltimore. Mike Macdonald parlayed the Ravens’ No. 1-ranked defense into an HC job; three of his lieutenants — Wilson, Zach Orr and Anthony Weaver — landed DC positions. A DBs coach since 2015, Wilson paid his dues and will have a shot to be the top defensive voice in a team’s building. Meanwhile, Callahan’s play-calling role will limit Holz’s reach.

Wilson, 42, has a history with Carthon; both were in the Rams organization from 2015-16. Wilson then spent time with the Jets and Eagles, the second of his Philadelphia seasons a Super Bowl campaign. He then helmed Kyle Hamilton to an All-Pro season and Geno Stone to a breakout year.

Holz, 40, has traveled a less conventional path. He bounced between the quality control level and assistant wide receivers coach with the Raiders from 2012-21. After a year as UNLV’s OC, Holz reentered the NFL as the Jags’ pass-game coordinator. Not present for Trevor Lawrence‘s late-season surge in 2022, Holz instead rode an uneven Jags 2023 season into this gig. This hire did not garner much attention, but Holz’s lack of experience as an NFL position coach is notable.

Dot-connecting made predicting the next Titans O-line coach rather easy, though it took the Browns letting Bill Callahan out of his contract to make a reunion with his son possible. The Callahans have never coached on the same staff previously. One of the game’s best O-line coaches, Bill Callahan helped turn the Browns’ front into an elite unit and will now take over the development of first-rounders Peter Skoronski and JC Latham. This will mark a pivotal chapter for the former Raiders HC, who is now 68.

Trades:

Several teams checked on Sneed, whom the Chiefs allowed to seek a trade upon franchise-tagging him. Keeping with its Andy Reid-era approach of not extending or re-signing cornerbacks, Kansas City prioritized a Chris Jones windfall over a Sneed re-signing. Despite Sneed enjoying a borderline dominant contract year, the Chiefs were unable to land too much. The prospect of a team then needing to extend the former fourth-round pick at a high rate dented the trade value, though the team did ultimately collect a Day 2 pick for a player it counted on as a starter during both Super Bowl-winning seasons.

The report of the trade being finalized came shortly after a separate assessment indicating the Titans had cooled on Sneed. Tennessee was indeed one of the initial suitors, being aggressive here despite having given Chidobe Awuzie a hefty contract two weeks earlier. The Sneed deal came after the Titans had met with Tre’Davious White, who ended up with the Rams. The Titans’ early-round CB investments under Robinson either left in free agency after inconsistent tenures (Adoree’ Jackson, Kristian Fulton) or have seen injuries harpoon their careers (Caleb Farley). Carthon decided to start fresh, adding two new boundary starters in March.

One of the Chiefs’ run of CB discoveries under Steve Spagnuolo, Sneed allowed just a 51% completion rate as the closest defender (at 4.8 yards per target) and a 56.2 passer rating. The Louisiana Tech alum did not yield a touchdown last season, playing an elite level for a Chiefs team suddenly unable to rely on its star-studded offense. Sneed’s advanced coverage numbers were not as flashy during his 2021 and ’22 starter slates, but he might be the top CB find during the Chiefs’ Reid era.

The Titans rewarded the 27-year-old defender with the highest guarantee at signing among corners. Sneed’s guarantee checks in $7MM north of the next-closest CB, but his AAV ($19.1MM) sits eighth. Sneed did well to secure guarantees into Year 3, which will make it difficult for the Titans to get off this contract — should the versatile DB not pan out in Nashville — until 2027. With experience outside and in the slot, Sneed gives the Titans options. Sneed will probably stick on the boundary considering the season he just put together in that role, with former second-rounder Roger McCreary still in place in the slot.

Free agency additions:

Knowing he had a rookie-scale QB contract to build around, Carthon proceeded to increase the talent level — no matter the cost — by adding the top players at multiple positions. Overpays may well be present among this class, but the Titans had seen many of their starters become unreliable in recent years — due largely to injuries. Although Levis is far from a sure thing, the Titans’ free agency plan is dependent on the rookie making strides and this contract complementing FAs’ guaranteed salaries over the next two years.

Ridley was not the first of the free agents to sign, but his contract generated the most attention. Lurking as a Jaguars-Patriots duel formed for the former first-rounder’s services, the Titans came in with a deal that surprised many. With Mike Evans re-signing with the Buccaneers before free agency and the Colts tagging Michael Pittman Jr., WR-needy teams spent. The Gabe Davis and Darnell Mooney $13MM-per-year contracts illustrate that.

The Titans were determined to pay up for a more proven commodity, though Ridley’s age and inconsistent past somewhat undercuts his two 1,000-yard seasons. That did not end up mattering in this market; Ridley secured the fourth-most guaranteed money at signing among WRs.

Leaving the Falcons for mental health reasons early during the 2021 season, Ridley then incurred a full-season gambling suspension. This drained a chunk of his prime, and although he has only finished four NFL seasons, the 2018 first-rounder will turn 30 this year. The Titans only guaranteed two of Ridley’s base salaries, which will make a 2026 escape doable in the event this is indeed a regrettable overpay.

With DeAndre Hopkins again battling knee trouble, the Titans need Ridley to build on the 1,016-yard showing he delivered last season in Jacksonville. Ridley working out also would provide the Titans a bonus, as it cost the Jags third- and fifth-round picks to secure one season of the veteran wideout. For a Titans team having some experience with bad receiver decisions this decade (Julio Jones, A.J. Brown), this is certainly a gamble. But a case can also be made Ridley has room for growth after posting a 1,000-yard year following effectively two missed seasons.

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

August 12th, 2024 at 9:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Offseason optimism gave way to disappointment for the 2023 Jaguars, and coaching changes commenced. Though, the ’24 offseason turned into one centered on doubling down on the team’s core performers. Jacksonville set a franchise record with its Josh Hines-Allen extension and then broke it weeks later by re-upping Trevor Lawrence. Although the Jags may be at a crossroads, the payments they authorized point to a belief in the current direction.

After a late-season slide moved the Jags from first place in the AFC to 9-8 and watching the Texans now receive the offseason hype driven by a rookie-contract quarterback, Doug Pederson faces pressure in Year 3. While the former Super Bowl-winning HC elevated the team after the Urban Meyer disaster, he will need to restore the momentum the 2022 season’s second half brought.

Extensions and restructures:

The Jags have not won 10 games in a season since 2017. Prior to that, the last such instance came in 2007. As such, they have not assembled a core worthy of extensive extension rumors in a while. That changed this offseason, with a franchise tag coming out for Hines-Allen and Lawrence talks beginning in February. While the Jags did not discuss a Hines-Allen extension until he had played out his fifth-year option season, they followed the recent blueprint for first-round QBs and hammered out a deal with Lawrence before his fourth season. As a result, Lawrence joins Patrick Mahomes as the only NFLers signed into the 2030s.

Hines-Allen’s extension, agreed to in April, held the franchise record for a short time. Lawrence agreed to terms in June with a contract that looks less out of step following the subsequent Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa accords. Like the Packers and Dolphins, the Jaguars received no real discount and are betting Lawrence has more levels to unlock during his extension years.

The former No. 1 overall pick submitted inconsistency on his rookie contract, but flashes have emerged — most brightly during the 2022 stretch run that included a historic wild-card comeback win — to the point the Jags have more certainty in comparison to the Packers. But Lawrence must display notable growth if he is to live up to this record-tying contract.

The Jags matched Joe Burrow‘s $55MM AAV, though Lawrence’s deal checks in third among guarantees at signing ($142MM) and in total guarantees ($200MM). Love and Tagovailoa did not match the Jags QB here, but Jacksonville did better in terms of cost certainty by locking in its starter through 2030. Love and Tua, who were going into contract years, are signed through 2028. Lawrence followed Burrow and Justin Herbert as first-rounders with two years of control remaining to sign five-year extensions. This will allow the Jags a longer runway to defray their passer’s cap hits, making the deal more manageable and allowing for more action this offseason.

This is new territory for the franchise, which has seen a number of QB investments fail. Byron Leftwich never secured an extension, and Blaine Gabbert did not make it far into his rookie contract before being benched. Blake Bortles‘ exploits have been well chronicled here, and although the team authorized an $18MM-per-year deal shortly after the 2017 team’s journey to the AFC championship game, it bailed on the extension a year later to jump into an ill-advised Nick Foles free agency agreement. Lawrence arrived two years later and has yet to put it all together.

In terms of QBR, Lawrence has finished 28th, 17th and 17th from 2021-23. He memorably threw one touchdown pass from Halloween to New Year’s Day during a miserable 2021 rookie season, and the 2022 team started 3-7. The late-season surge that year generated 2023 hype, but Lawrence then sustained a litany of injuries — the last of those causing his first NFL absence — that impacted his play in a 14-interception season. While the Dolphins opted to wait until Tagovailoa’s fifth year for a larger sample size to form, the Jags moved full speed ahead with a pre-Year 4 re-up.

The Jags will bet on health and their new receiver investments boosting the fourth-year QB, whose contract contains three fully guaranteed years and most of the 2027 base salary guaranteed at signing. With Lawrence’s 2028 base salary and option bonus vesting one year early, the Jags are pot-committed for a lengthy period. This contract promises to make Lawrence at least the second-longest-tenured QB1 in team history. The franchise will eventually hope Lawrence surpasses Mark Brunell‘s nine-season tenure; this deal provides the runway.

Hines-Allen, who will separate himself from the Bills quarterback with an offseason name tweak, came through in a contract year with a franchise-record 17.5 sacks. This well-timed surge prompted a franchise tag and a commitment that makes the sixth-year edge rusher the second-highest-paid player at his position. Like Lawrence, the Jags have not seen Hines-Allen perform at a consistently high level; prior to 2023, he had not eclipsed 7.5 sacks in a season since his 2019 rookie year.

Resisting trade interest on the former top-10 pick prior to the 2022 deadline, the Pederson-Trent Baalke regime saw the Tom Coughlin-Dave Caldwell-era draftee spearhead the team’s pass rush last season. With Travon Walker not yet harnessing the skillset the Jags invested in atop the 2022 draft, Hines-Allen took over. He added 17 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles last season. The Jags based Hines-Allen’s extension on the terms the Giants authorized for trade pickup Brian Burns. Hines-Allen, 27, received $500K more guaranteed in total ($88MM) and $500K in additional guarantees at signing ($76.5MM).

It pays to deliver a breakthrough season at a premium position, and the Jags do have the advantage of Walker being tied to a rookie contract through 2025. Their ability to keep him at rookie terms through 2026 via the fifth-year option will be beneficial now that Hines-Allen is on a lucrative second contract.

Jacksonville was not through paying its cornerstone performers just yet. Despite the record-setting payouts to Hines-Allen and Lawrence, the team found the necessary space to pay its top cornerback. Campbell joined the Jags two rounds after Lawrence in 2021. While Meyer’s coaching stint was an unmitigated disaster, the team has made commitments to three of his draftees — counting Travis Etienne‘s fifth-year option. Campbell cashed in during an offseason in which the CB market settled a bit. No record-breaking deals occurred at the position, but Jacksonville’s top cover man followed Jaylon Johnson and L’Jarius Sneed in doing quite well in terms of contract structure.

Not extended after a franchise tag tag like the Bears and Titans corners, Campbell scored the seventh-highest CB contract ($19.13MM per year) to come in ahead of Johnson and Sneed. Campbell, 24, did receive slightly less guaranteed in total ($53.4MM) than the two tagged defenders, but he is in good position to earn every dollar. The team also agreed on a rolling guarantee structure with Campbell, who will see a 2026 option bonus become fully guaranteed in 2025 and more than half his 2027 base salary shift to a full guarantee by March 2026. This will provide security for the Georgia alum, who will see some new blood working alongside him this coming season.

Going into the final season of a three-year, $45MM deal, Oluokun took a pay cut — in terms of AAV — in exchange for security. The Jags gave the seventh-year tackling machine an additional $21.5MM fully guaranteed to drop his salary to $10MM per year. As the Jags cut three of the free agent defenders they signed under Baalke (Folorunso Fatukasi, Rayshawn Jenkins, Darious Williams), they prioritized the linebacker from the 2022 FA class.

Considering the production the 29-year-old defender has delivered (a staggering 549 tackles over the past three seasons), it was a bit odd he agreed to a reduction on his third contract. While the Jags had what turned out to be a momentous offseason on the contract front, they locked in the former Falcons starter at a favorable rate through 2027. This flew under the radar, and while the ILB market has taken a hit, the NFL’s 2021 and ’22 tackles leader passed on hitting free agency ahead of his age-30 season in 2025 to cash in with the Jags once again.

Free agency additions:

At wide receiver, this Jags offseason featured some moving parts. The team signed Davis when plans were in place to retain Calvin Ridley; the Davis deal also occurred with Zay Jones still on the roster. With both the 2023 regulars gone, the four-year Bills Stefon Diggs sidekick is now in place to try and expand the Jags’ long-range game. This had become a station-to-station offense, and the team’s free agency and draft efforts set out to adjust that.

Hyping up his own market, Davis (or a member of his camp) noted the former fourth-round pick paced the NFL in first-down rate, touchdown rate and average depth of target since 2020. Davis’ effort may have helped, as he secured a nice guarantee and AAV. The former fourth-round pick indeed excelled as a downfield option in Buffalo, though he undoubtedly benefited from defenses’ attention to Diggs and the talents of his quarterback. Josh Allen did find Davis consistently for scores, running that number to 27 in four seasons; that does not count the four-TD showing the 25-year-old weapon posted against the Chiefs in the 2021 divisional-round classic.

The Davis deal also emerged after the team showed interest in Mike Evans, but the career-long Buccaneer opted to stay in Tampa rather than test free agency. The player the Jags ended up with profiles as a boom-or-bust addition, but Davis should at least assist in spreading the field for underneath targets Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.

Not many players from Baalke’s 49ers teams remain in the NFL; Armstead, however, played a central role for a set of high-end San Francisco defenses during the ensuing Kyle Shanahan era. Offered a substantial pay cut by the 49ers, Armstead balked and found a healthy market. The Bills showed interest, and Texans HC DeMeco Ryans sought a reunion. Instead, Armstead opted to reunite with the GM who drafted him back in 2015.

Teaming with Nick Bosa to form perennially imposing 49ers defensive lines, Armstead started in two Super Bowls and four NFC championship games. He posted 10 sacks in 2019, DeForest Buckner‘s final San Francisco slate, and registered six in 2021. Over the past two seasons, however, injuries have hounded the stalwart D-lineman. Armstead is coming off offseason knee surgery, which still has him on the Jags’ active/PUP list. He hurt the same knee before the 2022 season, a campaign that featured eight missed games and a subsequent foot malady. Baalke’s big guarantee suggests a strong market formed, but the Jags winning these sweepstakes sets up a buyer-beware situation ahead of Armstead’s age-31 season.

Moving on from Williams and Jenkins, the Jags brought in replacements at midlevel prices. Although Darby debuted three years before Williams, he is a year younger (at 30). The CB’s health history adds to the uncertainty of this Baalke FA group.

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PFR Originals: Texans, Broncos, Ravens

August 11th, 2024 at 10:12pm CST by Ely Allen

Here is a rundown of the latest original content from PFR:

  • In the last two weeks, we’ve seen a few of the latest issues from our Offseason in Review series. Sam Robinson started us off with an in-depth look at the Texans‘ offseason activities. Bolstered by the belief that they have found their franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, Houston decided it was time to go all in, trading for weapons like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon and amending both players’ contracts. They also extended wide receiver Nico Collins, further securing their arsenal of weapons. Their gains in the offseason seem to have outweighed their losses, but they’ll have some larger-than-life expectations to live up to in 2024.
  • A couple of days later, Sam followed that up with a look at the Broncos‘ Offseason in Review edition. It started to look a bit like a rebuild with Denver letting Russell Wilson and Jerry Jeudy leave. Drafting rookie Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and trading for former Jets passer Zach Wilson, along with some contract restructures, showed the direction that head coach Sean Payton and company seem to be headed in Year 2 on the job.
  • Finally, Adam La Rose contributed another issue, diving into the offseason activities of the Ravens. As we tend to see with successful teams, there was a mass exodus from Baltimore this offseason as coaches and players became coveted after the team’s 13-4 campaign. The offseason saw four staffers earn promotions to general manager, head coach, and defensive coordinator. The team also lost several key contributors on both sides of the ball like Odell Beckham Jr., Gus Edwards, Patrick Queen, and Jadeveon Clowney. With the only big addition being that of running back Derrick Henry, most of the team’s offseason was focused on retaining top talent and filling the newly vacated roles with players already on the roster.

5 Key Stories: 8/4/24 – 8/11/24

August 11th, 2024 at 4:52pm CST by Adam La Rose

With exhibition contests underway around the league, the 2024 regular season is nearing. Plenty of key developments continue to take place in the NFL as teams sort out a number of unsettled contract matters. In case you missed any of the past week’s top stories, here is a quick recap:

  • 49ers Extension, Steelers Trade Remain Options For Aiyuk: The past few days have produced a new round of updates on Brandon Aiyuk’s future. The second team All-Pro was reported to be the subject of trade agreements with the Browns and Patriots, although New England is now out of the running. Cleveland’s package to San Francisco would have included Amari Cooper and a pair of draft picks, but Aiyuk is not interested in a Browns extension. That is the case for the Steelers, though, and Pittsburgh has re-engaged in talks. To date, no agreement has been reached in terms of a trade with the 49ers or a long-term deal, one which would pay the 26-year-old roughly $30MM per year. As San Francisco continues to entertain offers (and seek a receiver in return from any trade partner), the team is also still attempting to work out an extension which will keep Aiyuk in the Bay Area for the long-term future. A deal on that front, or a trade sending him to Pittsburgh, remain the likeliest outcomes in this fluid situation.
  • Werner Lands Saints Extension: A number of veterans are set to again hold key roles on the Saints’ defense in 2024, but linebacker Pete Werner is among the ascending talents also in line for first-team duties. The 25-year-old inked a three-year extension worth a base value of $22.5MM, keeping him in the fold through 2027. Werner saw notable playing time as a rookie and has served as a full-time starter over the past two years. He set a new career high in tackles (90) last season, and expectations will remain high moving forward. The former second-rounder received a practical guarantee of roughly $17.5MM on his new deal, and he will join free agent addition Willie Gay as a central figure on the Saints’ defense this year.
  • Patriots Release Smith-Schuster: The Patriots’ 2023 investment in JuJu Smith-Schuster did not pay off, and it resulted in a separation. New England released the veteran wideout, incurring a dead money charge of $7MM in the process. 2023 saw him produce only 260 yards and one touchdown while struggling to remain healthy. Smith-Schuster, 27, is in better shape from a health perspective now but he was already known to be on the roster bubble. The Patriots added at the WR spot via free agency (K.J. Osborn) and the draft (Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker) this offseason, the first of the Eliot Wolf-Jerod Mayo regime. Efforts to land Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk were unsuccessful, but Smith-Schuster will nevertheless need to find a new team in the coming weeks. The latter’s next contract will no doubt be less valuable than the $25.5MM one he signed last offseason.
  • Prescott Seeking Historic AAV; Cowboys Making Progress On Lamb Talks? Speculation continues to swirl regarding how the Cowboys will sort out extension talks with quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver CeeDee Lamb. The former is reportedly attached to an asking price above $55MM per season; that would make his next deal the most lucrative one in league history in terms of AAV. Prescott cannot be franchise tagged next year, holds a no-trade clause and is set to carry major cap hits in 2024 and ’25. While no deal on that front appears imminent, the Cowboys may be closer to inking Lamb. Jerry Jones does not feel a sense of urgency in getting a deal done with the All-Pro, one which will reach or at least approach the top of the receiver market ($35MM per year). A Micah Parsons mega-extension looms next year, but at least one major pact could be on the books by that point.
  • Chiefs Extend Butker: A number of extension priorities remain in the waning weeks of the summer for the Chiefs, but one has been taken care of. Kansas City worked out a four-year, $25.6MM deal with kicker Harrison Butker. He is now the league’s highest-paid kicker in terms of annual compensation ($6.4MM) and guarantees ($17.75MM). The 29-year-old has proven to be a highly consistent contributor during his career, one in which he has posted a field goal accuracy rate of at least 88.9% five times in six years. Butker (who was set to enter a walk year) has proven to have one of the strongest legs in the league, and he will be counted on to remain a key contributor for the defending champions for years to come.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

August 5th, 2024 at 9:31pm CST by Adam La Rose

With Lamar Jackson’s extension taken care of, the Ravens entered the 2023 season with renewed expectations. For the second time since Jackson took over as a full-time starter, Baltimore earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the superstar quarterback took home the MVP award. The team’s run came to an underwhelming end with a home loss to the Chiefs in the AFC title game, however.

In the months following that defeat, the Ravens have endured a number of notable departures at all levels of the organization. Changes on the field, along the sidelines and in the front office will leave Baltimore depending on several new faces in 2024. Many members of the team’s core remain in place, though, and as such the Ravens can be counted as a contender in the AFC North and beyond.

Trades:

Moses entered the offseason as a cut candidate, so it comes as little surprise he will not be back for 2024. Baltimore was able to add draft capital by sending him back to New York. The 33-year-old served as the Jets’ right tackle starter for 2021, a role he is set to reprise upon his return. The deal cleared $5.5MM in salary for the Ravens, though the team’s setup at the RT spot is one of several questions up front during training camp.

Moses has remained durable throughout his career; the three games he missed in 2023 were the most he was sidelined for since his rookie campaign (2014). The former third-rounder drew strong Pro Football Focus reviews for the fourth consecutive year last season, and he will be expected to provide consistent play in his second Jets stint. His ability to do so will determine his market in free agency next March on a New York re-up or a pact allowing him to join another new team.

Free agency additions:

General manager Eric DeCosta made it abundantly clear during the offseason running back additions would be a priority, and the 2024 free agent crop presented him with several options to choose from. Baltimore emerged as one of several suitors for Saquon Barkley, but it came as no surprise inside or outside the organization Henry was the team’s ultimate acquisition. In terms of pedigree, the latter comfortably represents the most notable new face brought in this offseason.

In the time since Jackson’s rookie campaign (2018), the league’s preeminent dual-threat quarterback ranks ninth in the league in rushing yards. Across that same span, Henry leads the NFL in production on the ground – by a margin of over 1,750 yards. The longtime Titan was named as a target of trade interest for the Ravens ahead of the 2023 deadline. An agreement was reportedly reached, with Tennessee’s ownership vetoing the trade.

Titans GM Ran Carthon has offered a denial on that point, but mutual interest existed between Henry and the Ravens in the build-up to free agency. The two-time rushing champion was also linked to the Cowboys, but Dallas’ decision to allow Tony Pollard to depart was not followed up by a Henry offer. The team was not active on the veteran market until a reunion with Ezekiel Elliott after the draft.

While Henry was surprised to not be on the Cowboys’ radar, he echoed the interest he had dating back to 2023 when reflecting on his Baltimore free agent process. The 30-year-old will receive all but $1MM of his guaranteed money this season, a sign of hesitancy on the Ravens’ part to make a long-term commitment. Henry has led the NFL in carries during each of his last four healthy campaigns, and he is positioned for a heavy workload once again in his new home.

Expectations will nevertheless be high for team and player with Baltimore having made by far the most high-profile backfield addition of the Jackson era. Henry’s acclimation to his new environment will be a critical factor in the Ravens’ ability to remain among the league’s most productive offenses.

As he foreshadowed, Eddie Jackson hit free agency after being let go by the Bears. He needed to wait until just before the start of training camp to find a deal, joining a number of veteran safeties in spending a long time on the open market. Another one – Jamal Adams – visited the Ravens, but he ultimately signed in Tennessee before Jackson was added.

The latter has started each of his 100 career games, but he will be competing for the No. 3 safety role in Baltimore. The Ravens used three-safety looks a number of times last year, and the departure of Geno Stone created a vacancy for the role behind Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton on the depth chart. Jackson, 30, struggled in coverage last season but former Bears teammate Roquan Smith endorsed his arrival in Baltimore. He will aim to parlay a change of scenery into a return to his previous form.

Board and Harty suffered a similar fate with their former teams this offseason, with both having been released in cost-cutting moves. The Patriots’ new regime does not value special teams as much as the previous one, and that stance paved the way for Board, 29, to return to the Ravens. A starting linebacker spot is not in play for Board, but he can reprise the integral third phase role he previously held with the team. Harty – a Baltimore native – earned All-Pro acclaim for his work in the return game during his rookie year (2019), and he is positioned to serve as the Ravens’ top returner.

Re-signings:

The Ravens have avoided big-money free agent additions along the edge during DeCosta’s tenure at the helm. Jadeveon Clowney joined Van Noy as a veteran brought in on a low-cost deal last offseason. The former matched his career high in sacks with the Ravens in 2023, while the latter set a new personal mark (nine) in only 14 games played and while logging just a 52% defensive snap share. Retaining at least one was a key 2024 priority.

Van Noy has remained consistent wherever he has played recently, totaling at least five sacks in each of the past five seasons (a stretch including three teams). The 33-year-old will have some stability during the latter stages of his career as he looks to replicate his success from 2023. Young options along the edge will face high expectations for Baltimore moving forward, but Van Noy will have a key role to play as well.

Agholor joined the Ravens on a one-year deal last offseason, but the presence of void years made an extension necessary for him to be retained through 2024 without dead money charges accruing. The former first-rounder operated as a complementary option in the receiving corps (one which, per usual, was not a unit built on a high-volume passing attack). Agholor’s 77.8% catch percentage in 2023 was by far the best of his career, and he should remain in a rotational capacity behind Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman on the WR depth chart for at least one more year.

Josh Johnson has had multiple stints with the Ravens as part of his whirlwind tour around several levels of pro football. The 38-year-old will occupy the backup role in 2024, positioning him for regular season game action in the event Jackson misses time. Johnson has made six appearances since 2021, with his lone start in that span coming during his most recent Ravens tenure.

Not unlike Van Noy, Maulet established himself as a veteran exceling in his role to a greater degree than expected during his debut Baltimore campaign. The former UDFA matched his career highs in pass deflections (five) and sacks (two) last year despite missing three games and logging a higher snap share on special teams than on defense. The Ravens have a number of other cornerback options on the perimeter and in the slot, but Maulet should manage to remain a regular contributor in the latter capacity for at least the short-term future.

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5 Key Stories: 7/28/24 – 8/4/24

August 4th, 2024 at 4:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

As training camps continue around the league, a number of big-ticket contracts have been worked out recently. More are likely on tap, but several notable pacts have ended speculation about players’ short- and long-term futures with their respective teams. In case you missed any of the top developments from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Buccaneers Extend Wirfs: The Buccaneers’ final major piece of financial business was taken care of with left tackle Tristan Wirfs agreeing to an extension. The All-Pro worked out a five-year, $140.6MM deal, making him the league’s top earner at both tackle positions. Wirfs has exceled on the right and left in his brief but decorated career, leading many to expect he would move to the top of the pecking order. The 25-year-old secured just over $88MM in guarantees, and he is positioned to remain Tampa Bay’s anchor up front for the foreseeable future. Wirfs attended training camp but did not participate in padded practices until the deal was in place, something he and the team expressed confidence in working out. Now that the contract has been finalized, the Bucs can turn their attention to other matters. Thanks to the fifth-year option, Wirfs is on the books through 2029.
  • Dolphins, Hill Agree To Restructure: Tyreek Hill’s desire for a new Dolphins pact resulted in a restructure agreement. The 2023 receiving leader landed $90MM over the next three years, including $65MM in guarantees. No new years were added to the pact, making this deal a unique resolution to Hill’s situation. No guaranteed salary previously existed after the 2024 campaign, leading to the five-time All-Pro’s attempts at securing a raise. His $30MM-per-year pact has been surpassed as the receiver benchmark this offseason, but the restructure ensures he will remain amongst the league’s highest-paid wideouts. Hill’s prior goal of topping the market was a factor in his trade out of Kansas City, but he made it clear he wanted to remain in Miami while adding financial security for the coming seasons. That goal has been met, and the Dolphins now have Hill, fellow receiver Jaylen Waddle and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa attached to big-money deals.  
  • Moore Signs Bears Extension: Keeping in line with a number of other receivers, D.J. Moore inked a long-term deal representing a raise. The Bears signed him to a four-year, $110MM extension which will keep him on the books through 2029. The 27-year-old enjoyed a career year during his debut Chicago campaign, and instead of playing out the last two seasons of his previous pact (which did not include guaranteed salaries) he secured over $82MM in locked in compensation. Moore will be joined at the WR spot by trade acquisition Keenan Allen and first-round rookie Rome Odunze, so his role in the passing game with quarterback Caleb Williams will be worth watching. Still, the ex-Panther should remain a focal point on offense after Chicago allowed him to jump the line in terms of other in-house extension priorities.
  • Decker Becomes Latest Lions Extension Recipient: The Lions have been busy working out monster extensions on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, and that effort continued with Taylor Decker. Detroit’s longtime left tackle signed a three-year, $60MM extension which will keep him in place through 2027 and includes just under $32MM guaranteed. The 29-year-old has spent his entire career in the Motor City, and he will join right tackle Penei Sewell in retaining his position for the foreseeable future. The latter is the league’s highest-paid right tackle, whereas Decker’s new deal moves him into seventh in AAV for blindside blockers. The Lions’ offensive line will once again face high expectations in 2024 as the team looks to build off the success of last season.
  • Godchaux Land Patriots Extension; Judon Resolution Nearing? Questions were raised at the start of training camp with respect to how the Patriots would proceed with defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and edge rusher Matt Judon. The former has joined the long list of in-house players who signed new deals this offseason, inking a two-year extension worth up to $21MM. Godchaux, 29, has been with New England for the past three years and has served as a full-time starter. His pass rush production has remained minimal, but his play against the run earned him a new deal two years after his previous extension. Judon, meanwhile, has returned to practice after a brief absence related to his lack of an extension. The situation between the four-time Pro Bowler and the Patriots appears to have improved, although Judon remains tied to $7.5MM in compensation for 2024, the final year of his pact. Whether or not the latest turn of events is quickly followed by an agreement will be worth watching closely.
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