PFR Originals News & Rumors

Release Candidate: Ravens RB Kenneth Dixon

Could a running back with a career average of 4.8 yards per carry really be on the roster bubble? That’s the case with Ravens tailback Kenneth Dixon, who finds himself on a crowded depth chart at the position. 

[RELATED: Ravens WR Marquise Brown May Not Be Ready For Training Camp]

Its been a rocky road for Dixon, who entered the league as a fourth-round pick in 2016. He made a splash early on, averaging 4.3 yards per carry as a rookie, but lost his 2017 season to a torn meniscus. Before the surgery, Dixon was slapped with a four-game suspension for PEDs, which already hurt his standing in the organization.

Last year, Dixon was primed to serve as the Ravens’ leading rusher, but a knee injury midway through the season opener sent him to IR. When he was brought back in December, he showed serious promise in a limited sample. Dixon ran for 289 yards off of 47 carries, giving him a 5.5 yards per tote average on the year.

In short bursts, Dixon has looked the part of a starter. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old hasn’t been able to find sustained success and he now finds himself behind free agent pickup Mark IngramGus Edwards, and possibly fourth-round rookie Justice Hill.

If the Ravens carry only three running backs on the Week 1 roster, it seems unlikely that Dixon will make the cut. He has a shot at staying with the flock if they carry four, but team history suggests that they’ll roll with just a trio of RBs when the season begins.

A Dixon release would result in just $87K in dead money against $720K in cap savings.

Largest 2019 NFL Cap Hits By Position: Quarterbacks

The largest free agent contracts of 2019 featured some massive numbers, but, due to the way new contracts are structured, many of those big free agent contracts won’t rank among this year’s top cap hits. While guaranteed money is typically frontloaded on the first couple years of new agreements, teams can structure contracts to ensure that larger cap hits come later on in the life of the deal, and often those cap charges will be reduced or eliminated altogether when the guaranteed money runs out.

We’ll tackle other key positions later, but for now, here are the top 10 QB cap hits for 2019, with a few notes and observations accompanying the figures:

Quarterbacks:

  1. Matthew Stafford (Lions): $29.5MM
  2. Kirk Cousins (Vikings): $29MM
  3. Andrew Luck (Colts): $27.5MM
  4. Tom Brady (Patriots): $27MM
  5. Aaron Rodgers (Packers): $26.5MM
  6. Russell Wilson (Seahawks): $26.3MM
  7. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers): $26.2MM
  8. Eli Manning (Giants): $23.2MM
  9. Cam Newton (Panthers): $23.2MM
  10. Philip Rivers (Chargers): $23MM
  • Quarterbacks who recently signed big-money extensions, such as Carson Wentz, may find their way onto this list in future seasons, but for now, their cap numbers are relatively modest.
  • Alex Smith‘s $20.4MM cap figure may be an issue for the Redskins, but the quarterback market has advanced to the point where his charge ranks only as the 15th highest at the position. In 2020, Smith’s 2020 base salary is fully guaranteed, meaning that the Redskins are on the hook for $16MM. He’s scheduled to carry a $21.4MM cap charge in that season and releasing him would result in a $32.2MM cap hit. The Redskins, realistically, can only escape Smith’s contract in 2021 when his release would result in a more palatable $10.8MM dead money hit.
  • Other players notably absent from this list include Drew Brees ($22.7MM, 11th among QBs), Jameis Winston ($20.9MM, T-QB13), Marcus Mariota ($20.9MM, T-QB13), Jimmy Garoppolo ($19.35MM, T-QB16), and Matt Ryan ($15.8MM, QB19).
  • Next year, several teams will start to feel the implications of big money QB deals. The cap hits for Roethlisberger and Ryan will jump to $33.5MM, tying them atop the chart for 2020. Meanwhile, Rodgers, Stafford, Cousins, and Wilson are all scheduled to carry cap hits of at least $31MM.

PFR’s NFL Glossary: Supplemental Draft

The supplemental draft allows NFL teams to select players who, for one reason or another, were barred from entering the regular draft in the spring. When a team selects a player in the supplemental draft, they forfeit the corresponding pick in the regular draft next year. For example, if a team selects a player in the sixth round of the supplemental draft this year, they will have to give up their 2020 sixth round selection. 

There were no players taken in the supplemental draft in 2016 or 2017, but the Giants snapped the cold streak when they selected Western Michigan cornerback Sam Beal in the third round of last year’s draft. Then, the sixth round, the Redskins tapped Virginia Tech cornerback Adonis Alexander.

In the past, teams have found gems in the supplemental draft. In 2011, the Raiders selected Ohio State quarterback and future standout NFL receiver Terrelle Pryor. In 2012, the Browns used a second round pick to take the talented and troubled Josh Gordon. Other supplemental draft alums include quarterback Bernie Kosar (Browns, 1985), wide receiver Cris Carter (Eagles, 1987), running back Bobby Humphrey (Broncos, 1989), wide receiver Rob Moore (Jets, 1990), nose tackle Jamal Williams (Chargers, 1998), and linebacker Ahmad Brooks (Bengals, 2006).

The date has not been set for this year’s supplemental draft, but it’s likely to take place in the second week of July. On Thursday, West Virginia wide receiver Marcus Simms became the first known entrant.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. 

Release Candidate: Tavon Austin

In 2013, the Rams were blown away by the blazing speed of Tavon Austin and used the No. 8 overall pick draft to secure him. In 2016, the Rams inked him a four-year, $42MM extension, making him the 12th highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL at the time. Today, Austin finds himself on the Cowboys’ roster bubble. 

Austin still possesses game-changing speed, but injuries continue to hold him back. Last year, a groin pull limited him to just seven games in which he caught eight passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns, which more or less sums up his career to date – Austin put up a DeSean Jackson-type yards per catch average, but couldn’t stay on the field.

Austin also holds appeal for his ability to play out of the backfield and serve as a slippery returner, but both roles seem to have been filled in Dallas. The Cowboys tapped Memphis product Tony Pollard in the draft to play as the change-of-pace back behind star Ezekiel Elliott and return kicks. Meanwhile, newcomer Randall Cobb is slated to be the Cowboys’ main slot receiver.

Wide receivers Amari CooperMichael Gallup, and Cobb are locks for the roster and Allen Hurns isn’t far behind in the pecking order. That leaves one, or possibly two, WR spots on the 53-man roster, and Noah Brown and Jon’Vea Johnson both seem to have a leg up on Austin, who was limited in OTAs and minicamp.

The Cowboys re-upped Austin on a one-year deal in the spring, but the pact includes just $500K guaranteed. Unless Austin can quickly prove that he is healthy and ready to make an impact, he’ll likely be released in the coming weeks.

Only 16 Draft Picks Remain Unsigned

Roughly 7% of this year’s draft picks have yet to sign their rookie contracts, as shown in PFR’s tracker. So far, 238 of this year’s 254 selections have inked their deals.

Here’s the complete breakdown, sorted by round:

First Round (6)

Second Round (3)

Third Round (5)

Sixth Round (1)

Seventh Round (1)

Unsurprisingly, the first round (6) and third round (5) still lead the way in stragglers. First-round picks tend to have the most leverage, which means agents will often haggle on issues such as offset language. Third-round negotiations also tend to drag since there is wiggle room when it comes to their base salaries.

As an unsigned seventh-round pick, Cutting’s situation is an unusual one. The Air Force product has signed an “injury protection agreement” instead of his rookie contract, giving the academy time to render a final decision on whether he can play in 2019. Depending on how things shake out, Cutting may have to leave the team for two years to fulfill his service requirements.

Poll: Who Is Pats’ Top 2019 AFC Challenger?

Another summer featuring the Patriots preparing a title defense will bring PFR’s third version of this poll. The Patriots are only the third team to book Super Bowl berths in three straight years, joining the Dolphins from 1971-73 and Bills from 1990-93, and again Las Vegas tabs Bill Belichick‘s team as the favorite to win a championship.

In the past two AFC title games, the Pats skated to Super Bowls by razor-thin margins. Their 2019 passing attack features more questions than it has in maybe 13 years, dating back to the days before the arrivals of Randy Moss and later Rob Gronkowski. But until they are defeated, this century’s premier team will be the favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowls.

The top candidate to dethrone them last year may again fill that role, but the Chiefs have gone through a rather complex offseason. After another dismal defensive season, the Chiefs overhauled their pass rush. They ditched anchors Justin Houston and Dee Ford, along with DC Bob Sutton, in moving to Steve Spagnuolo‘s 4-3 defense. But Frank Clark (35 sacks in four seasons), on a $20.8MM-per-year contract in a deal that cost the Chiefs their first-round pick, is Kansas City’s new edge bastion. It is not certain who will fill the role of K.C.’s No. 2 edge rusher, and high-end interior presence Chris Jones skipped minicamp.

This figures to be Patrick Mahomesfinal season on his rookie contract, amplifying the importance of 2019 for the Chiefs. A major AFC variable: the status of the reigning MVP’s top receiver. Tyreek Hill is facing a near-certain suspension, or possibly a Chiefs departure, depending on where the NFL’s investigation goes. So the three-time defending AFC West champions’ status is a bit murky at the moment.

Despite the 2018 Chargers winding up on the wrong end of a divisional-round rout in New England, they still possess one of the NFL’s best rosters. As such, the Bolts were relatively quiet in free agency — beyond their Thomas Davis signing. The Chargers still employ the key players responsible for 2018 top-10 rankings on offense and defense and are in line to have Joey Bosa and Hunter Henry healthy in Week 1. The Bolts still lack a comparable home-field advantage compared to their contender peers but compensated last year by going 8-0 outside of Los Angeles.

In returning nearly every starter from last season, the Colts (who have the fourth-best AFC title odds) carry a similar profile to the Bolts. Chris Ballard again resisted major free agency spending, despite his team holding more than $100MM in cap space entering March. Indianapolis did re-sign multiple starters and have a new T.Y. Hilton supporting cast in Devin Funchess, third-rounder Parris Campbell and 2018 draftee Deon Cain, who missed his rookie season. The Colts were No. 2 in weighted DVOA entering their second-round loss last season.

They of one winning season in the past 16, the Browns loaded up this year and hold Bovada’s third-best odds to win the AFC. Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson and Kareem Hunt stand to play pivotal roles in Cleveland’s pursuit of its first playoff berth since 2002, and John Dorsey‘s two-offseason overhaul has this roster in much better shape. The Browns do have some questions on their offensive line, and new HC Freddie Kitchens brings only a half-season’s worth of coordinator experience. But this certainly profiles as one of the most fascinating contenders in years.

Vegas predicts the Texans and Ravens will take steps back, after each underwent sweeping 2019 changes. And for the first time in several years, the Steelers (sixth-best odds in the AFC) hover off the top tier. Are oddsmakers sleeping on the perennial contenders? The Steelers made multiple moves (in adding Devin Bush, Steven Nelson and Mark Barron) to patch up their defense but lost arguably this era’s top receiver, whose $21.12MM dead-money number limited them this offseason.

Lastly, what surprise team will emerge? Will the Raiders’ spending spree translate to 2019 success? Will Nick Foles stabilize the Jaguars’ offense enough? Will the collectively rebuilding AFC East prevent another five- or six-win Patriots divisional stroll (and the likelihood of the Pats earning a bye in every season this decade)?

Click below to vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your AFC thoughts in the comments section.

Who will be the Patriots' top 2019 AFC challenger?
Kansas City Chiefs 31.78% (1,309 votes)
Los Angeles Chargers 17.46% (719 votes)
Cleveland Browns 14.69% (605 votes)
Indianapolis Colts 14.35% (591 votes)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.61% (437 votes)
Another team (specify in comments) 4.42% (182 votes)
Baltimore Ravens 4.39% (181 votes)
Houston Texans 2.31% (95 votes)
Total Votes: 4,119

PFR’s NFL Glossary: Restructuring Contracts

When an NFL team finds itself short on cap flexibility and in need of some space, one of the most effective short-term fixes is to restructure a player’s long-term contract. While cutting or trading players can often be solutions as well, a contract restructure allows the team to keep its roster intact while also providing immediate cap relief.

The base salaries of NFL contracts typically aren’t guaranteed, but players can receive guaranteed money in the form of signing bonuses. While those bonuses are considered to be up-front payments, for cap purposes they can be spread out over up to five years of the contract. For instance, if a player were to sign a four-year deal with a $12MM signing bonus, that figure would prorate equally over the four years of the contract, amounting to a $3MM cap hit per year. If a team were to release that player one season into the deal, the club could avoid paying most of the player’s annual base salaries, but would still be on the hook for the remaining bonus money, along with the cap total for that money.

As such, the most common form of contract restructuring involves converting a portion of a player’s base salary for a given year into a new signing bonus. That bonus can then be spread out over several years, moving it away from the current season.

This is exactly the sort of agreement the Vikings and linebacker Eric Kendricks reached this offseason. In 2018, the Vikings signed Kendricks to a five-year, $50MM deal. This year, the Vikes moved some of that cash around to give themselves breathing room under the cap. Minnesota converted $2.15MM of Kendricks’ $4.15MM salary for 2019 into a salary bonus, which created about $1.72MM in space.

Restructuring a contract by converting base salary to a signing bonus creates immediate relief, but also creates problems in future years. A year from now, the Ravens may have to make another move with Kendricks, which will likely mean restructuring his deal once again, to reduce a larger cap number for 2019.

There are ways a player can remain under contract with a team while also helping to create or maintain both short-term and long-term cap flexibility. A player agreeing to take a pay cut, for instance, could allow a team to reduce his current cap number without necessarily moving that money further down the line in the contract. However, that generally happens in situations in which the team’s leverage outweighs the player’s leverage.

In most cases then, a restructured contract that sees base salary converted into bonus money is the simplest short-term fix for a club. The bill will come due eventually, but restructuring a deal allows a team to put off a more significant decision for at least one more year.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Joel Corry and Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.

This Date In Transactions History: Bengals Cut Terrelle Pryor

On this date in 2015, the Bengals released quarterback Terrelle Pryor. After four unremarkable years in the NFL, the move didn’t mean much at the time. However, the release changed the trajectory of the former Ohio State star’s career.

The late Al Davis brought Pryor into the league after selecting him in the third round of the 2011 supplemental draft. Pryor didn’t play much in his first two seasons and struggled on the whole in 2013, although there were some impressive moments. Pryor was traded to the Seahawks in 2014, but was cut prior to Week 1 and wound up sitting out of football altogether that year. In January of 2015, the Chiefs signed Pryor, but released him in May. The Bengals scooped him up, but cut him from the roster five weeks later on June 18, 2015.

Clearly, Pryor’s athleticism could not carry him at the quarterback position in the NFL, but he was reluctant to give up on his lifelong dream. Prior to signing with the Bengals, Pryor declared, “If I can’t play quarterback, I can’t play football.” But, after his release from the Bengals, agent Drew Rosenhaus informed teams that Pryor was willing to line up as a wide receiver.

Ohio’s other team – the Browns – moved quickly to claim Pryor off of waivers. Pryor didn’t see much time on the field in that season, but things changed when the Browns shifted him to wide receiver prior to the 2016 offseason. The Browns were optimistic about what the 6’4″, 228-pound athlete could do at his new position, but few expected him to finish the season with 77 catches for 1,007 yards and four touchdowns.

Pryor parlayed his huge season into a one-year, $6MM free agent deal with the Redskins, but he was held back by an ankle injury and did little in D.C. He tried to regain his footing with the Jets last year, but injuries got the best of him once again. After his midseason release, his deal with the Bills amounted to nothing more than a cup of coffee.

Pryor resurfaced again in May when he signed a veteran’s minimum contract with the Jaguars. The former quarterback could have an opportunity to stand out in Jacksonville’s lackluster WR group, if he’s healthy.

Extension Candidate: Julio Jones

After skipping voluntary OTAs, Falcons star Julio Jones reported for the team’s mandatory minicamp earlier this month. There’s clear mutual interest in a new deal, but Jones’ situation is trickier than most. 

Jones is one of the league’s most accomplished wide receivers, but figuring out a multi-year extension for a 30-year-old skill player is never easy. He’s topped 1,400 receiving yards in each of the last five seasons, but it’s hard to bank on his speed holding up across multiple seasons.

Still, Jones led the league with 1,677 receiving yards in 2018 and continues to draw double coverage from overwhelmed defenses on a regular basis. And, while his contract has two more years to go, the Falcons cannot risk a rift – or a holdout – with their most potent offensive weapon.

A fresh deal for Jones would likely take him through the end of his career, but what would such an add-on look like? Currently, Jones’ salary has him ranked just 12th among wide receivers with an average annual value of $14.25MM. Making Jones No. 1 in AAV would mean vaulting him ahead of Antonio Brown‘s $19.8MM/year and Odell Beckham Jr.’s $18MM/year, which should be doable for the Falcons. However, Jones is unlikely to match the length of OBJ’s contract or, more importantly, the guarantees.

Beckham’s five-year, $90MM extension granted him $65MM in total guarantees and a whopping $41MM guaranteed at signing. Jones, who is already under contract through his age 32 season, is probably looking at no more than an additional three years. From there, you can expect a hefty signing bonus, and a decent sum scheduled for Year One of the new deal, but it’s unrealistic to expect the Falcons to ensure $41MM to the aging superstar.

So, how can the two sides reach an accord that is satisfactory for everyone? Recently, Joel Corry of CBSSports.com suggested the following:

  • Length: Three years
  • New money total: $60MM (Bringing total remaining value to $81MM over five years)
  • Signing bonus: $25MM
  • Guaranteed money: $50.526MM
  • Fully guaranteed at signing: $37.526MM

Ultimately, that amounts to a $20MM average annual value, allowing Jones to edge Brown and OBJ in that category. Meanwhile, the Falcons preserve some flexibility, as Jones’ total guarantees would be $14.475MM shy of OBJ’s.

A new deal for Jones and the Falcons seems like an inevitability, but it will be interesting to see when they get it done, how they get it done, and what the cashflow of the extension looks like.

Contract Guarantees

Unlike in the NBA or MLB, players’ contracts in the NFL aren’t guaranteed by default. Typically, an NFL player will receive at least some guaranteed money when he signs a deal, but that money often comes in the form of contract bonuses, and in particular signing bonuses. While a player’s base salary, or P5 salary, will occasionally be guaranteed for a season or two, more often than not future seasons in that contract are fully non-guaranteed, allowing the team to escape the contract without much of a cap hit, particularly if the player’s bonus money was limited. 

Take Vontaze Burfict for example. The linebacker inked a three-year, $33MM extension with the Bengals in 2017 with just $3.3MM in total guarantees. Rather than carrying Burfict at a $7.3MM cap figure in 2018, the Bengals released him in March, leaving just $1.8MM in dead money against $5.5MM in savings. At the time of signing, Burfict was ticketed to be the highest-paid 4-3 outside linebacker in the game on a per-year basis, but the Bengals were able to pull the plug and pay out only a portion of that commitment.

Signing bonuses, which are generally paid in one or two lump sums, are fairly straightforward forms of guaranteed money, but not all guaranteed money is created equal. We saw a prime example of that when Colin Kaepernick inked a long-term extension with the 49ers in 2014. When word of the agreement first broke, Kaepernick’s guaranteed money was reported to exceed $60MM+. However, upon learning the full details of the contract, we found that only about $13MM of that total was fully guaranteed, whereas another $48MM+ was guaranteed for injury only.

An injury-only guarantee is one of three types of guarantees that a team can write into a player’s contract that apply to his base salary in a given season. These guarantees are as follows:

  • Guaranteed for injury: If a player suffers a football injury and cannot pass a physical administered by the team doctor, he would still be entitled to his full salary if the team were to release him. For a player like Kaepernick who has several future seasons guaranteed for injury only, it would take a career-ending injury for the Niners to be on the hook for all those future injury-only guaranteed salaries.
  • Guaranteed for skill: The most subjective of the three, a player whose talents have significantly declined and is released for skill-related reasons (ie. another player beats him out for a roster spot) would still be entitled to his full salary if that salary is guaranteed for skill.
  • Guaranteed for cap purposes: This form of guarantee ensures that a player who is released due to his team’s need to create cap room will still be entitled to his full salary.

A team can use a combination of these forms of guarantees, making a player’s salary guaranteed for injury and skill, for example. In the event that a player’s salary is guaranteed for injury, skill, and cap purposes, we’d refer to that salary as fully guaranteed, since the player would be eligible for his full salary regardless of the reason for his release.

As is the case with prorated bonuses, all future guaranteed salary owed to a player by a team is considered “dead money” and would accelerate onto the club’s current cap in the event of his release (over one or two years, depending on whether the cut happens after June 1). For the most part though, beyond the first year or two of a deal, that prorated signing bonus money is the only guaranteed figure remaining on the contract, which is why teams often don’t have qualms about releasing a player in the later years of his deal.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post. This post was modified from an early entry by editor emeritus Luke Adams.