PFR Originals News & Rumors

Poll: Which New Head Coach Will Experience Least 2019 Success?

This year, eight NFL teams decided to make a head coaching change. The teams that hire a new head coach are rarely in a position to win – these are not gorgeous new condos, these are fixer-uppers with creaky floorboards and cobweb-filled basements. 

As a quick reminder, these are the NFL’s new head coaches for the 2019 season:

Recently, we asked PFR readers to choose which coach would have the most success in 2019, and Kitchens got the vote of confidence with LaFleur as the runner-up. Now, we want to know which coach you believe will have the least success in 2019.

Kingsbury finished at the bottom of the aforementioned poll, which is understandable given the Cardinals’ last-place finish in 2018 and Kingsbury’s lack of NFL experience. However, one has to think that Flores has his work cut out for him in Miami as well – the Dolphins are clearly rebuilding and are not in a position to win in 2019.

Which of these eight coaches do you think will have the toughest 2019? Click below to cast your vote (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section.

Which new head coach will have the least success in 2019?
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) 24.33% (500 votes)
Brian Flores (Dolphins) 23.11% (475 votes)
Zac Taylor (Bengals) 20.39% (419 votes)
Adam Gase (Jets) 13.58% (279 votes)
Matt LaFleur (Packers) 5.16% (106 votes)
Bruce Arians (Buccaneers) 5.06% (104 votes)
Vic Fangio (Broncos) 4.33% (89 votes)
Freddie Kitchens (Browns) 4.04% (83 votes)
Total Votes: 2,055

This Date In Transactions History: Colts Extend Robert Mathis

The Colts in the 2000s centered their team around their passing attack and pass defense. The least likely member of this cornerstone group became a long-term Colt on this day 13 years ago.

On June 16, 2006, the Colts ensured Robert Mathis, taken with a fifth-round pick out of Alabama A&M three years prior, would play in Indianapolis for many years. They signed the blossoming sack artist to a five-year, $30MM extension (with an $8.1MM signing bonus), which at the time made him one of the top-10 highest-paid defensive ends. That year changed the Colts’ trajectory, and Mathis played a key role in it.

From 2003-05, the Colts deployed Mathis as an off-the-bench defensive end. But he racked up 25.5 sacks (and 17 forced fumbles) in his first three seasons, doing so despite starting only one game. Raheem Brock started as Dwight Freeney‘s counterpart during each of Mathis’ first three seasons, but the Colts moved him to defensive tackle in 2006. Brock remained a Colts fixture up front until 2009, but Freeney and Mathis became the pass rush’s top bastions beginning with Mathis’ ’06 extension.

Interestingly, Mathis received his new deal before Freeney. But the latter’s rookie contract contained more years, and much more money, allowing the Colts to table that extension until 2007. (Freeney signed a six-year, $72MM contract in ’07.) Both players were full-timers for the Colts for the next seven seasons, the first of which doubling as the franchise’s second Super Bowl championship (and first in Indianapolis). In his age-25 season, Mathis led the Super Bowl champion Colts edition in sacks.

Mathis, Freeney, Peyton Manning, Marvin HarrisonReggie Wayne and Jeff Saturday became the linchpins of that Colts era, with the franchise allowing Edgerrin James (franchise-tagged for $8MM in 2005) to walk just prior to the Mathis extension. The Division I-FCS product outlasted all of his peers in Indianapolis.

Although Mathis did not make a Pro Bowl until 2008, the decision to extend him worked out marvelously for the Colts. Mathis went on to play 11 more seasons with the franchise, his 193 games sitting second only to cornerback Eugene Daniel in the Colts’ Indianapolis history. Mathis’ 123 sacks are a Colts record; his 54 forced fumbles are the most of any player in the past 25 years.

PFR Originals: 6/9/19 – 6/16/19

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • PFR’s “This Date in Transactions History” series saw four more chapters added.
    • Zach Links discussed the Dolphins’ 2012 move to bring in Chad Johnson, who was then coming off a season with the 2011 AFC champion Patriots. Unfortunately, a legal issue ended what turned out to be a poor fit, and that year’s Hard Knocks captured the team cutting the cord on the former Pro Bowler.
    • Ten years ago this week, the Falcons concluded the Michael Vick era. Zach recalled the Falcons’ plan trade Vick following his two-year prison term. But no team wanted to take on Vick’s massive contract, and the Falcons ended up cutting him.
    • The first of the Peyton Manning-led Broncos’ Super Bowl teams made a change at running back late in the 2013 offseason, and Zach discussed the team’s jettisoning of Willis McGahee after two years in Denver. Knowshon Moreno went on to have a strong season for the AFC champions, while McGahee ended up in Cleveland for what turned out to be his final season.
    • I discussed another two-plus-year Bronco, revisiting the Josh McDaniels-led team’s decision to bring in Brandon Lloyd in 2009. Lloyd ended up producing a surprisingly strong 2010 season, leading the league in receiving yards while also helping the Broncos assemble part of their Super Bowl rosters.
  • This draft produced some unconventional quarterback choices near the top, and Zach asked the PFR community which of this year’s top-10 picks has the biggest bust potential. Unsurprisingly, the two quarterbacks selected — Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones — lead the way so far.
  • A fourth of the league’s teams replaced their coach in 2019, and Dallas Robinson asked which new leader was in position to oversee the best season. Despite Freddie Kitchens‘ inexperience, PFR readers believe the new Browns HC will finish well. The Packers’ Matt LaFleur garnered strong support as well.
  • With the Texans’ GM search hitting a wall, potentially creating another Patriots rival after the Nick Caserio saga, Rory Parks asked the PFR readership whom they believe the team will end up hiring. Interestingly, many readers believe the Texans will not end up replacing Brian Gaine this year.

Poll: Who Will Texans Hire As Their Next GM?

The NFL news cycle over the past few weeks has been largely dominated by surprise GM vacancies, and while the Jets filled their opening with Joe Douglas, who has quickly generated a great deal of excitement in New York, the Texans are still looking for their next GM.

Of course, the club had zeroed in on Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio, but Houston abandoned its pursuit shortly after New England filed tampering charges against the Texans. Houston may have been successful if it had elected to fight those charges and the provisions in Caserio’s contract with the Patriots that may prohibit him from interviewing with other clubs, but it chose to take the path of least resistance.

So where do the Texans go from here? Aside from Caserio, the only other candidates that Houston has definitely expressed interest in are former Browns GM Ray Farmer and former Lions GM Martin Mayhew, both of whom have already interviewed with the club. However, neither one seems like a home run hire.

Farmer’s two years as Cleveland’s top exec (2014-15) did not do much to inspire confidence, as he generally failed in both free agency and the draft. Some of his draft picks (Joel Bitonio) and free agent signings (Andrew HawkinsJosh McCown) did work out. But he also handed $9MM in guaranteed money to receiver Dwayne Bowe — who had five catches in his first and only year with Cleveland — and used first-round picks on Johnny Manziel and Justin Gilbert.

Mayhew, currently the 49ers’ vice president of player personnel, had his ups and downs in Detroit, but he did construct several playoff rosters — not an easy thing to do for Lions’ GMs — and he remains well-respected in front office circles. If the Texans’ choice ultimately comes down to Farmer and Mayhew, Mayhew would appear to be the superior candidate.

Other names that have been floated as potential targets include Reggie McKenzie and Scott Pioli. McKenzie enjoyed some success as the Raiders’ GM for seven years — including an executive of the year award in 2016 — and he currently serves as a senior personnel executive with the Dolphins. His ouster from Oakland had more to do with the club forcing him to cede most of his authority to head coach Jon Gruden than anything else, and there has been plenty of speculation that he could return to the GM ranks at some point.

Pioli, meanwhile, recently stepped down from his post as Falcons assistant GM, and he said he did so simply to “pursue other opportunities.” At the time, the Jets’ GM job had just come open, though Pioli was never named as a candidate for that position. He served as the Chiefs’ general manager from 2009-12, which was a mostly forgettable stretch of time in Kansas City franchise history, but he does have over 20 years of front office experience.

Although the Texans were interested in Patriots director of college scouting Monti Ossenfort when they were looking for a GM in 2018, New England denied the club’s interview request at that time. Houston did not request an interview with Ossenfort in 2019, and given the Caserio debacle, it would be quite surprising if they reversed course. In fact, the Texans may not hire a GM at all this year.

So how do you think this situation will be resolved? Let us know whom you think the Texans will name as their GM in 2019 (if anyone), and feel free to explain your thoughts in the comment section.

Who will the Texans hire as their next GM?
They will not hire a GM in 2019 39.09% (215 votes)
Scott Pioli 20.36% (112 votes)
Reggie McKenzie 16.55% (91 votes)
Someone else 14.36% (79 votes)
Martin Mayhew 5.09% (28 votes)
Ray Farmer 4.55% (25 votes)
Total Votes: 550

This Date In Transactions History: Broncos Sign Brandon Lloyd

While Josh McDaniels‘ stint in Denver is not remembered fondly, one of the fliers the coach/de facto GM took during his tumultuous tenure turned out to pay big dividends. Ten years ago today, the Broncos signed wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. This led to one of the more randomly great receiving seasons in modern NFL history.

After stays as a starter with the 49ers, Redskins and Bears between 2003-08, Lloyd signed a one-year pact with the Broncos on June 15, 2009. The deal paid him less than $700K. However, the Broncos used the ’09 season as an evaluation period for the former fourth-rounder. Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley resided on the ’09 Broncos, who deactivated Lloyd for 14 games. But their 2010 team relied on him heavily.

McDaniels kept Lloyd in Denver via multiyear deal worth more than $2MM in 2010. Although the Broncos stumbled to one of the worst seasons in franchise history, a 4-12 campaign that included McDaniels’ midseason firing, Lloyd blew up for one of the organization’s greatest receiving showings. After an eight-catch 2009, Lloyd produced 77 receptions, 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns. That yardage total not only led the NFL by a fairly healthy margin, it remains the third-highest single-season figure in Broncos history — trailing only Demaryius Thomas (2014) and Rod Smith (2001). Thomas and Eric Decker took a backseat to Lloyd as rookies.

The then-29-year-old wideout’s showing with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow at that offense’s controls — after the Broncos had parted ways with Marshall and Stokley — earned Pro Bowl acclaim. But less than a year later, the Broncos traded Lloyd to the Rams. A contract dispute, and the team’s Tebow-based shift to one of the more run-centric offenses in recent NFL annals a year later, led to Lloyd’s midseason departure.

Both sides benefited from the exit. Thomas and Decker helped attract Peyton Manning to Denver in 2012, and Lloyd signed a three-year, $12MM deal with the Patriots (who had recently rehired McDaniels) that year. Lloyd, who recorded one 1,000-yard receiving season in 11 NFL campaigns, was the Patriots’ second-leading receiver in 2012 but was released the following offseason.

The conditional pick the Broncos received from the Rams turned into a 2012 fifth-rounder, which became Malik Jackson. The defensive lineman started in both Super Bowl XLVIII and Super Bowl 50 and remains a well-regarded interior presence eight years into his career.

Poll: Which New Head Coach Will Experience Most 2019 Success?

Coaching staff turnover was abundant this offseason, but most of that change occurred at the assistant level: while there were 28 instances of alteration among offensive and defensive coordinators, only eight new head coaches will be leading teams in 2019, a number that fits in nicely with yearly averages. Naturally, most of these eight new HCs are taking over clubs that are in something of a rebuilding phase, as no club that made the postseason in 2018 decided to make a change at the top.

With that in mind, we’d like to ask PFR readers which new head coach will experience the most success during the upcoming campaign? While we aren’t solely asking about record (the Dolphins could win five games and consider that a success, for example), we’re looking mostly at wins and losses.

Here’s a refresher on the NFL’s new head coaches:

In the AFC, Taylor will not only lead an extremely young coaching staff in Cincinnati, but hope bringing the Rams’ offense to the Queen City leads to positive results. Kitchens and the Browns will enter the 2019 season with extremely high expectations, and he has the benefit of experienced coordinators — Todd Monken and Steve Wilks — on each side of the ball. In South Beach, Flores will attempt to change the Dolphins’ culture as the club embarks on a potentially multi-season rebuild. Miami’s prior coach, Gase, is now in New York where he’ll be tasked with developing second-year quarterback Sam Darnold.

Moving to the NFC, Kingsbury is probably the most intriguing NFL head coaching hire in several years, and all eyes will be on the desert as he meshes his Air Raid offense with No. 1 overall selection Kyler Murray. LaFleur comes to Green Bay with only one season of play-calling experience under his belt, but Packers fans won’t be happy with a step back while Aaron Rodgers is still under center. And in Tampa Bay, Arians will add his “no risk it, no biscuit” mantra to an offense that already loved to throw deep in 2018.

So, who do you like? Which of these coaches will post the most successful season in 2018? (Link for app users).

Which new head coach will have the most 2019 success?
Freddie Kitchens (Browns) 32.58% (536 votes)
Matt LaFleur (Packers) 25.35% (417 votes)
Bruce Arians (Buccaneers) 11.43% (188 votes)
Vic Fangio (Broncos) 11.19% (184 votes)
Adam Gase (Jets) 7.48% (123 votes)
Zac Taylor (Bengals) 4.56% (75 votes)
Brian Flores (Dolphins) 3.89% (64 votes)
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) 3.53% (58 votes)
Total Votes: 1,645

This Date In Transactions History: Broncos Release Willis McGahee

In the summer of 2011, the Ravens released Willis McGahee in an effort to save cap space. Days later, the Broncos scooped him up to provide to starter Knowshon Moreno. It proved to be a wise decision, as Moreno went down with an injury in the very first game of the season. 

From there, McGahee took off. He topped 100 rushing yards in the team’s Week 2 win against the Bengals, torched the Packers for 103 yards off of just 15 carries in Week 4, and nearly set a new career high with 163 rushing yards against the Raiders in November. McGahee finished out the year with 1,199 rushing yards with an average of 4.8 yards per tote.

With that, the Broncos seemingly had their new No. 1 running back in 2012, the year of Peyton Manning‘s arrival. Unfortunately, things did not go according to plan for McGahee. After a solid first half to the season, a helmet-to-knee hit from Quentin Jammer in November resulted in a torn MCL and an early end to his campaign.

From there, Moreno regained his spot as the team’s top RB and, on this date in 2013, McGahee was released by the Broncos. Sadly, McGahee was unable to return to his old form after the release. McGahee hooked on with the Browns after they traded Trent Richardson to the Colts, but he averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and ran for 377 yards in his 12 games, both career lows. After that, it was curtains for the former first-round pick and University of Miami star.

McGahee had an up-and-down career in the NFL, but he left the game with two Pro Bowl selections and four seasons with upwards of 1,100 rushing yards.

Poll: Which Top 10 Pick Has The Highest Bust Potential?

The NFL Draft is just barely in the rear view mirror, which means that teams are full of hope for their young rookies. But, of course, the NFL Draft is largely a crapshoot, and not every player will realize their full potential. 

This year’s draft had talent, but lacked a true consensus on the top player. Many evaluators pegged defensive end Nick Bosa as the player with the highest ceiling in the 2019 class, but other saw Alabama’s Quinnen Williams as the “safest bet.” The 49ers pounced on Bosa with the No. 2 pick while the Jets (and former GM Mike Maccagnan) were delighted to land Williams at No. 3 overall.

Leading up to the draft, much of the attention was on Oklahoma quarterback (and one-time MLB hopeful) Kyler Murray. When Murray announced that he would ditch the Oakland A’s, his stock exploded – Murray was considered a borderline first-round prospect in the winter, but wound up as the Cardinals’ choice at No. 1 overall. Murray has the speed that teams crave at the QB position, but questions persist about his size and overall lack of experience as a full-time starter.

The Cardinals’ long flirtation with Murray brought us the expected result, but the Raiders gave us the real first shock of the draft when they tapped Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 overall. Not to be outdone, the Giants snagged Duke’s Daniel Jones at No. 6 overall. Heading into the draft, neither player was thought to be anywhere near Top 10 consideration, but Mike Mayock and Dave Gettleman were unwilling to trade down and risk losing out on their guys.

The domino effect created by those picks allowed the Bucs to grab inside linebacker Devin White (No. 5 overall), the Jaguars to land outside linebacker Josh Allen (No. 6), the Lions to snag top tight end T.J. Hockenson, the Bills to draft defensive tackle Ed Oliver (No. 9 overall), and the Steelers to finish out the Top 10 with linebacker Devin Bush. Most of those picks were warmly received, but nothing is certain in the draft.

Which Top 10 pick do you think has the highest bust potential? Click below to cast your vote (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section.

Which Top 10 Pick Has The Highest Bust Potential?
Daniel Jones 35.89% (1,439 votes)
Kyler Murray 32.92% (1,320 votes)
Clelin Ferrell 9.65% (387 votes)
Nick Bosa 6.08% (244 votes)
T.J. Hockenson 4.14% (166 votes)
Josh Allen 3.64% (146 votes)
Ed Oliver 3.07% (123 votes)
Devin Bush 2.42% (97 votes)
Quinnen Williams 1.42% (57 votes)
Devin White 0.77% (31 votes)
Total Votes: 4,010

This Date In Transactions History: Michael Vick

On this date in 2009, the Falcons moved on from the biggest star in the history of their franchise. After unsuccessful attempts to trade Michael Vick, the Falcons cut finally ties with the quarterback. 

With the ability to run as well as he could throw, Vick was one of the brightest young stars in the NFL. In six seasons, he earned three Pro Bowl nominations and led the Falcons to the NFC championship game twice. The first go-round in 2002 snapped a four-year playoff drought in Atlanta.

The trajectory of Vick’s career and the entire Falcons franchise changed in 2007 when Vick was indicted for his role in the Bad Newz Kennels dog fighting ring. The Falcons pretty much made up their minds on Vick after the quarterback was sentenced to nearly two years in prison, but there were paperwork and cap issues to sort out. The Falcons successfully recovered ~$20MM of Vick’s $37MM signing bonus in ’07, but it wasn’t until the summer of ’09 that they formally terminated his nine-year deal which had the potential to be worth as much as $130MM.

The Falcons were able to move on from the Vick era after selecting Matt Ryan with the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Vick, meanwhile, managed a second act in the NFL after landing with the Eagles. He was signed to be Donovan McNabb‘s backup in 2009, but he wound up as the team’s starting QB in 2010 after McNabb was traded and Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion. Vick went on to take the Eagles to the playoffs and eventually sign a six-year, $100MM extension with Philly.

Vick’s subsequent stints with the Jets and Steelers were less remarkable and he was unable to find an NFL home in 2016. In the summer of 2017 – on the eight-year anniversary of his release from Atlanta – Vick retired after signing a ceremonial contract with the Falcons.

This Date In Transactions History: Dolphins Sign Chad Johnson

In the summer of 2012, the Dolphins were less-than-enamored with their options at wide receiver. The Dolphins had just recently traded Brandon Marshall – fresh off of his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season – to the Bears for a pair of third-round picks. Then, in the draft, they did not select a wide receiver until the sixth round.

‘‘You would like to have some players make it easy and distinguish themselves, maybe make the picture a little bit clearer,’’ head coach Joe Philbin said (via The Boston Globe). ‘‘We have to catch the ball more consistently at every position on offense, because it is not quite where it needs to be.’’

After missing out on the first and second wave of free agent wide receivers, the Dolphins placed a call to Drew Rosenhaus to inquire on Chad Ochocinco (née Chad Johnson). On June 11, 2012, the Dolphins inked the eccentric veteran to a one-year deal.

Ochocinco’s career credentials were as impressive as his touchdown celebrations were inventive. To that point, he had 766 catches for 11,059 yards and 67 touchdowns, six Pro Bowl nods, and two First-Team All-Pro selections.

However, the receiver’s best days were spent with the Bengals and he looked like a shell of his former self with the Patriots in the 2011 season. In his lone campaign with New England, Johnson had just 15 catches for 276 yards and one touchdown and was targeted just 32 times in total. Johnson clearly didn’t mesh with the Patriots’ offense and he didn’t impress in his two intra-divisional games against the Dolphins either. Against Miami, he had just one catch in each of those two games.

Ochocinco – who changed his name back to Johnson shortly after signing with Miami – didn’t mesh with Philbin and the rest of the staff. The melding of personalities turned out to be the least of his issues. In August, Johnson was arrested on domestic battery charges. Johnson proclaimed his innocence, but the Dolphins released him the very next day. Thanks to “Hard Knocks,” we have video of Philbin’s final conversation with Johnson.

Johnson’s deal with the Dolphins up being his final NFL contract. Johnson went on to play for the CFL’s Montreal Alouettes in 2014 and was suspended for the 2015 season when he skipped mandatory practices. He re-emerged in 2017 to play in a single game for the Monterrey Fundidores of the Liga de Fútbol Americano Profesional de México, where he scored on a 41-yard touchdown reception in the Fundidores’ winning effort.