PFR Originals: 6/16/19 – 6/23/19
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- PFR’s ‘This Date in Transactions History’ series saw five more chapters added.
- Ben Levine took a look at the Patriots’ signing of David Harris. Harris was a ten-year veteran of the Jets who had spent his entire career in New York, so his decision to go to their AFC East rival was a big deal. Harris ended up only spending one year with New England before retiring.
- Sam Robinson discussed the Dolphins extending Sam Madison, which at the time was the largest contract in team history. Overall the contract worked out pretty well for both sides, as Madison kept up his stellar play. Eventually the Dolphins cut him after the 2005 season, and Madison went on to win Super Bowl XLII with the Giants.
- Zach Links reflected on the Bengals cutting Terrelle Pryor back in 2015. At the time Pryor was still a quarterback, and his release from Cincinnati would end up greatly altering his career path. Pryor had previously insisted he wouldn’t play any other position, but after the Bengals cut him he changed his mind. He agreed to line up at receiver, and ended up having a breakout 1,007 yard 2016 season.
- Zach also took a look at the Panthers’ unwise decision to extend offensive tackle Michael Oher in 2016. They signed Oher to a three-year deal with $21.6MM in new money, but Oher never played a snap under the new contract. Oher missed most of the 2016 due to concussion issues, and then was released with a failed physical designation following a few bizarre offseason incidents.
- Sam broke down the extension Robert Mathis got from the Colts in 2006. Mathis had only started one game his first three years in the league, but had shown a ton of promise coming off the bench. Indianapolis showed a lot of confidence in him, making him one of the league’s highest-paid pass-rushers despite his inexperience. The move paid off, as Mathis would go on to play another 11 years with the team and rack up a franchise-record 123 sacks.
- As part of our offseason glossary refreshers, Zach broke down what each of the following terms entail. The glossary terms explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement
- Zach also took a look at two potential release candidates this summer
- Kenneth Dixon. Dixon looked like the Ravens’ running back of the future for a while, but now finds himself squarely on the roster bubble. He’s put up pretty good numbers when on the field, but he’s been plagued by injuries and was also slapped with a four-game suspension for PEDs. The Ravens signed Mark Ingram this offseason, making Dixon expendable, and it appears as of right now that he’s on the outside looking in.
- Tavon Austin. When the Cowboys traded for Austin during the draft last year, they initially insisted they had big plans for him. But a groin injury ended up limiting Austin to just seven games, and Dallas barely used him even when he was on the field. Austin only has $500K guaranteed for this season, and the Cowboys now have Randall Cobb in the slot and rookie Tony Pollard as a returner/change of pace back behind Ezekiel Elliott. Austin is going to face an uphill battle to crack Dallas’ 53.
- Zach looked at the quarterbacks with the biggest cap hits for 2019.
- Zach broke down the remaining draft picks that have yet to sign their rookie deals, and as of June 19th there were only 16 picks left unsigned.
- The Patriots have dominated the AFC for many years, and Sam asked readers in a poll who their biggest threat in the conference is in 2019. The Chiefs were the overwhelming winners, getting over 33 percent of the vote.
- As part of our ‘Extension Candidate’ series, Zach examined where things stand between Julio Jones and the Falcons. Jones still has two years left on his deal, so it’ll be tricky. As Zach points out, former NFL agent and current CBS Sports analyst Joel Corry recently suggested adding on three new years with $60MM in new money. The two sides have been inching closer to a deal, and something should get done at some point.
- Being an NFL head coach is one of the toughest jobs in all of sports, and inevitably some of the new head coaches hired this cycle won’t pan out. Last year, Steve Wilks was canned by the Cardinals after just one season. With that in mind, Zach asked readers in a poll which new head coach will have the least successful 2019 season. It was a close three-way race between Kliff Kingsbury with the Cardinals, Brian Flores with the Dolphins, and Zac Taylor with the Bengals, but Kingsbury ended up ‘winning’ with just over 24 percent of the vote.
This Date In Transactions History: David Harris Joins Patriots
Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have a penchant for adding veterans on the downside of their careers. The organization also seems to enjoy poaching talent from their division rivals, especially the Jets. The Patriots have added a number of former Jets players since Belichick joined the Patriots (from the Jets, no less) in 2000, including the high-profile (Darrelle Revis) and low-profile (Danny Woodhead). Therefore, it wasn’t much of a surprise when the Patriots added a long-time Jets linebacker two years ago today.
The Jets selected David Harris in the second-round of the 2007 draft, and the linebacker quickly established himself as one of the most dependable members of their defense. From 2009 through 2015, Harris didn’t miss a single regular season game, and he earned an All-Pro nod in 2009 after posting 127 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles. The linebacker is also top-10 in a number of Jets’ records, including tackles (fourth-708), sacks (eighth-35), and forced fumbles (eighth-10).
However, Harris and the organization hit a bit of a crossroad in 2017. The team was eyeing a rebuild, and they wanted their veteran to take a pay cut. The 33-year-old wouldn’t budge, so the Jets made the “abrupt” move of releasing their long-time player in early June. Then, two weeks later, Harris signed with the Jets’ division rivals on a two-year, $5MM ($1.5MM guaranteed) deal. The move was made official on June 22nd, 2017.
How did it work for the Patriots? Probably about as expected, if not a bit underwhelming. Harris did provide New England with some much-needed depth up the gut, and the veteran ended up compiling 22 tackles and 1.5 sacks in 10 games (six starts). However, Harris sat out three of the Patriots’ final four regular season games (including their season-finale against the Jets), and he didn’t appear in any of the team’s three playoff games. Harris ended up retiring following the 2017 season, and the Jets were probably on to something when they let him go the previous year.
During his tenure in New York, Harris clearly did enough to establish himself as one of the best defenders in Jets history. However, at least among Jets fan, his resume will always hold one tiny blemish.
PFR’s NFL Glossary: The Fifth-Year Option
This summer, we’ve seen a handful of notable players from the 2015 NFL Draft receive, or push for, brand new deals. The standard rookie deal runs for four years, but first-round picks such as Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, Redskins guard Brandon Scherff, and Falcons edge rusher Vic Beasley are under contract through the 2019 season thanks to the fifth-year option. 
So what exactly is the fifth-year option in the NFL? Essentially, it’s a way to extend a player’s rookie contract by an extra year, at the club’s discretion. Players don’t have any say in whether or not these options are picked up, though players and teams are still free to negotiate longer-term contracts that would render the fifth-year option unnecessary. Otherwise though, the decision is in the hands of the team, and must be made by May 3 in the player’s fourth season.
Last year, 20 players (out of a possible 32) had their fifth-year options picked up for the 2019 season. As a top-10 pick, Beasley’s fifth-year salary was equivalent to the transition tender at his position during his fourth season, which came out to $14.2MM.
For first-rounders picked outside the top 10, like Chargers running back Melvin Gordon and 49ers defensive end Arik Armstead, the calculation was a bit more complicated. Their fifth-year option was determined by the average of the third through 25th top salaries at that position. That’s why Gordon is in line for just $5.605MM this season and Armstead is slated to earn just $9.046MM.
Fifth-year options are guaranteed for injury only between May 3 and the start of the following league year. As such, they’re not entirely risk-free, but as long as the player remains healthy, a team could exercise his fifth-year option, then cut him before his option year gets underway without being on the hook for his salary. When the league year begins, the player’s fifth-year salary becomes guaranteed for skill and cap purposes, as well as injury.
With a new CBA on the horizon, it’s conceivable that the fifth-year option will be amended to allow first-round picks to test free agency sooner. Then again, the NFLPA might not want to make the concessions needed in order to do away with the fifth-year option, even though it would help to accelerate the market at every position.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. This post was modified from an early entry by editor emeritus Luke Adams.
Release Candidate: Ravens RB Kenneth Dixon
Could a running back with a career average of 4.8 yards per carry really be on the roster bubble? That’s the case with Ravens tailback Kenneth Dixon, who finds himself on a crowded depth chart at the position. 
[RELATED: Ravens WR Marquise Brown May Not Be Ready For Training Camp]
Its been a rocky road for Dixon, who entered the league as a fourth-round pick in 2016. He made a splash early on, averaging 4.3 yards per carry as a rookie, but lost his 2017 season to a torn meniscus. Before the surgery, Dixon was slapped with a four-game suspension for PEDs, which already hurt his standing in the organization.
Last year, Dixon was primed to serve as the Ravens’ leading rusher, but a knee injury midway through the season opener sent him to IR. When he was brought back in December, he showed serious promise in a limited sample. Dixon ran for 289 yards off of 47 carries, giving him a 5.5 yards per tote average on the year.
In short bursts, Dixon has looked the part of a starter. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old hasn’t been able to find sustained success and he now finds himself behind free agent pickup Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and possibly fourth-round rookie Justice Hill.
If the Ravens carry only three running backs on the Week 1 roster, it seems unlikely that Dixon will make the cut. He has a shot at staying with the flock if they carry four, but team history suggests that they’ll roll with just a trio of RBs when the season begins.
A Dixon release would result in just $87K in dead money against $720K in cap savings.
Largest 2019 NFL Cap Hits By Position: Quarterbacks
The largest free agent contracts of 2019 featured some massive numbers, but, due to the way new contracts are structured, many of those big free agent contracts won’t rank among this year’s top cap hits. While guaranteed money is typically frontloaded on the first couple years of new agreements, teams can structure contracts to ensure that larger cap hits come later on in the life of the deal, and often those cap charges will be reduced or eliminated altogether when the guaranteed money runs out.
We’ll tackle other key positions later, but for now, here are the top 10 QB cap hits for 2019, with a few notes and observations accompanying the figures:
Quarterbacks:
- Matthew Stafford (Lions): $29.5MM
- Kirk Cousins (Vikings): $29MM
- Andrew Luck (Colts): $27.5MM
- Tom Brady (Patriots): $27MM
- Aaron Rodgers (Packers): $26.5MM
- Russell Wilson (Seahawks): $26.3MM
- Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers): $26.2MM
- Eli Manning (Giants): $23.2MM
- Cam Newton (Panthers): $23.2MM
- Philip Rivers (Chargers): $23MM
- Quarterbacks who recently signed big-money extensions, such as Carson Wentz, may find their way onto this list in future seasons, but for now, their cap numbers are relatively modest.
- Alex Smith‘s $20.4MM cap figure may be an issue for the Redskins, but the quarterback market has advanced to the point where his charge ranks only as the 15th highest at the position. In 2020, Smith’s 2020 base salary is fully guaranteed, meaning that the Redskins are on the hook for $16MM. He’s scheduled to carry a $21.4MM cap charge in that season and releasing him would result in a $32.2MM cap hit. The Redskins, realistically, can only escape Smith’s contract in 2021 when his release would result in a more palatable $10.8MM dead money hit.
- Other players notably absent from this list include Drew Brees ($22.7MM, 11th among QBs), Jameis Winston ($20.9MM, T-QB13), Marcus Mariota ($20.9MM, T-QB13), Jimmy Garoppolo ($19.35MM, T-QB16), and Matt Ryan ($15.8MM, QB19).
- Next year, several teams will start to feel the implications of big money QB deals. The cap hits for Roethlisberger and Ryan will jump to $33.5MM, tying them atop the chart for 2020. Meanwhile, Rodgers, Stafford, Cousins, and Wilson are all scheduled to carry cap hits of at least $31MM.
PFR’s NFL Glossary: Supplemental Draft
The supplemental draft allows NFL teams to select players who, for one reason or another, were barred from entering the regular draft in the spring. When a team selects a player in the supplemental draft, they forfeit the corresponding pick in the regular draft next year. For example, if a team selects a player in the sixth round of the supplemental draft this year, they will have to give up their 2020 sixth round selection. 
There were no players taken in the supplemental draft in 2016 or 2017, but the Giants snapped the cold streak when they selected Western Michigan cornerback Sam Beal in the third round of last year’s draft. Then, the sixth round, the Redskins tapped Virginia Tech cornerback Adonis Alexander.
In the past, teams have found gems in the supplemental draft. In 2011, the Raiders selected Ohio State quarterback and future standout NFL receiver Terrelle Pryor. In 2012, the Browns used a second round pick to take the talented and troubled Josh Gordon. Other supplemental draft alums include quarterback Bernie Kosar (Browns, 1985), wide receiver Cris Carter (Eagles, 1987), running back Bobby Humphrey (Broncos, 1989), wide receiver Rob Moore (Jets, 1990), nose tackle Jamal Williams (Chargers, 1998), and linebacker Ahmad Brooks (Bengals, 2006).
The date has not been set for this year’s supplemental draft, but it’s likely to take place in the second week of July. On Thursday, West Virginia wide receiver Marcus Simms became the first known entrant.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Release Candidate: Tavon Austin
In 2013, the Rams were blown away by the blazing speed of Tavon Austin and used the No. 8 overall pick draft to secure him. In 2016, the Rams inked him a four-year, $42MM extension, making him the 12th highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL at the time. Today, Austin finds himself on the Cowboys’ roster bubble. 
Austin still possesses game-changing speed, but injuries continue to hold him back. Last year, a groin pull limited him to just seven games in which he caught eight passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns, which more or less sums up his career to date – Austin put up a DeSean Jackson-type yards per catch average, but couldn’t stay on the field.
Austin also holds appeal for his ability to play out of the backfield and serve as a slippery returner, but both roles seem to have been filled in Dallas. The Cowboys tapped Memphis product Tony Pollard in the draft to play as the change-of-pace back behind star Ezekiel Elliott and return kicks. Meanwhile, newcomer Randall Cobb is slated to be the Cowboys’ main slot receiver.
Wide receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cobb are locks for the roster and Allen Hurns isn’t far behind in the pecking order. That leaves one, or possibly two, WR spots on the 53-man roster, and Noah Brown and Jon’Vea Johnson both seem to have a leg up on Austin, who was limited in OTAs and minicamp.
The Cowboys re-upped Austin on a one-year deal in the spring, but the pact includes just $500K guaranteed. Unless Austin can quickly prove that he is healthy and ready to make an impact, he’ll likely be released in the coming weeks.
Only 16 Draft Picks Remain Unsigned
Roughly 7% of this year’s draft picks have yet to sign their rookie contracts, as shown in PFR’s tracker. So far, 238 of this year’s 254 selections have inked their deals.
Here’s the complete breakdown, sorted by round:
First Round (6)
- 49ers, 1-2: Nick Bosa, DE (Ohio State)
- Jets, 1-3: Quinnen Williams, DT (Alabama)
- Buccaneers, 1-5: Devin White, LB (LSU)
- Giants, 1-6: Daniel Jones, QB (Duke)
- Panthers, 1-16: Brian Burns, DE (Florida State)
- Raiders, 1-24: Josh Jacobs, RB (Alabama)
Second Round (3)
- 49ers, 2-36: Deebo Samuel, WR (South Carolina)
- Broncos, 2-41: Dalton Risner, T (Kansas State)
- Broncos, 2-42: Drew Lock, QB (Missouri)
Third Round (5)
- Bengals, 3-72: Germaine Pratt, LB (North Carolina State)
- Jets, 3-92: Chuma Edoga, T (USC)
- Ravens, 3-93: Miles Boykin, WR (Notre Dame)
- Buccaneers, 3-94: Jamel Dean, CB (Auburn)
- Giants, 3-95: Oshane Ximines, LB (Old Dominion)
Sixth Round (1)
- Bears, 6-205: Duke Shelley, CB (Kansas State)
Seventh Round (1)
- Vikings, 7-250: Austin Cutting, LS (Air Force)
Unsurprisingly, the first round (6) and third round (5) still lead the way in stragglers. First-round picks tend to have the most leverage, which means agents will often haggle on issues such as offset language. Third-round negotiations also tend to drag since there is wiggle room when it comes to their base salaries.
As an unsigned seventh-round pick, Cutting’s situation is an unusual one. The Air Force product has signed an “injury protection agreement” instead of his rookie contract, giving the academy time to render a final decision on whether he can play in 2019. Depending on how things shake out, Cutting may have to leave the team for two years to fulfill his service requirements.
Poll: Who Is Pats’ Top 2019 AFC Challenger?
Another summer featuring the Patriots preparing a title defense will bring PFR’s third version of this poll. The Patriots are only the third team to book Super Bowl berths in three straight years, joining the Dolphins from 1971-73 and Bills from 1990-93, and again Las Vegas tabs Bill Belichick‘s team as the favorite to win a championship.
In the past two AFC title games, the Pats skated to Super Bowls by razor-thin margins. Their 2019 passing attack features more questions than it has in maybe 13 years, dating back to the days before the arrivals of Randy Moss and later Rob Gronkowski. But until they are defeated, this century’s premier team will be the favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowls.
The top candidate to dethrone them last year may again fill that role, but the Chiefs have gone through a rather complex offseason. After another dismal defensive season, the Chiefs overhauled their pass rush. They ditched anchors Justin Houston and Dee Ford, along with DC Bob Sutton, in moving to Steve Spagnuolo‘s 4-3 defense. But Frank Clark (35 sacks in four seasons), on a $20.8MM-per-year contract in a deal that cost the Chiefs their first-round pick, is Kansas City’s new edge bastion. It is not certain who will fill the role of K.C.’s No. 2 edge rusher, and high-end interior presence Chris Jones skipped minicamp.
This figures to be Patrick Mahomes‘ final season on his rookie contract, amplifying the importance of 2019 for the Chiefs. A major AFC variable: the status of the reigning MVP’s top receiver. Tyreek Hill is facing a near-certain suspension, or possibly a Chiefs departure, depending on where the NFL’s investigation goes. So the three-time defending AFC West champions’ status is a bit murky at the moment.
Despite the 2018 Chargers winding up on the wrong end of a divisional-round rout in New England, they still possess one of the NFL’s best rosters. As such, the Bolts were relatively quiet in free agency — beyond their Thomas Davis signing. The Chargers still employ the key players responsible for 2018 top-10 rankings on offense and defense and are in line to have Joey Bosa and Hunter Henry healthy in Week 1. The Bolts still lack a comparable home-field advantage compared to their contender peers but compensated last year by going 8-0 outside of Los Angeles.
In returning nearly every starter from last season, the Colts (who have the fourth-best AFC title odds) carry a similar profile to the Bolts. Chris Ballard again resisted major free agency spending, despite his team holding more than $100MM in cap space entering March. Indianapolis did re-sign multiple starters and have a new T.Y. Hilton supporting cast in Devin Funchess, third-rounder Parris Campbell and 2018 draftee Deon Cain, who missed his rookie season. The Colts were No. 2 in weighted DVOA entering their second-round loss last season.
They of one winning season in the past 16, the Browns loaded up this year and hold Bovada’s third-best odds to win the AFC. Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson and Kareem Hunt stand to play pivotal roles in Cleveland’s pursuit of its first playoff berth since 2002, and John Dorsey‘s two-offseason overhaul has this roster in much better shape. The Browns do have some questions on their offensive line, and new HC Freddie Kitchens brings only a half-season’s worth of coordinator experience. But this certainly profiles as one of the most fascinating contenders in years.
Vegas predicts the Texans and Ravens will take steps back, after each underwent sweeping 2019 changes. And for the first time in several years, the Steelers (sixth-best odds in the AFC) hover off the top tier. Are oddsmakers sleeping on the perennial contenders? The Steelers made multiple moves (in adding Devin Bush, Steven Nelson and Mark Barron) to patch up their defense but lost arguably this era’s top receiver, whose $21.12MM dead-money number limited them this offseason.
Lastly, what surprise team will emerge? Will the Raiders’ spending spree translate to 2019 success? Will Nick Foles stabilize the Jaguars’ offense enough? Will the collectively rebuilding AFC East prevent another five- or six-win Patriots divisional stroll (and the likelihood of the Pats earning a bye in every season this decade)?
Click below to vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your AFC thoughts in the comments section.
PFR’s NFL Glossary: Restructuring Contracts
When an NFL team finds itself short on cap flexibility and in need of some space, one of the most effective short-term fixes is to restructure a player’s long-term contract. While cutting or trading players can often be solutions as well, a contract restructure allows the team to keep its roster intact while also providing immediate cap relief.
The base salaries of NFL contracts typically aren’t guaranteed, but players can receive guaranteed money in the form of signing bonuses. While those bonuses are considered to be up-front payments, for cap purposes they can be spread out over up to five years of the contract. For instance, if a player were to sign a four-year deal with a $12MM signing bonus, that figure would prorate equally over the four years of the contract, amounting to a $3MM cap hit per year. If a team were to release that player one season into the deal, the club could avoid paying most of the player’s annual base salaries, but would still be on the hook for the remaining bonus money, along with the cap total for that money.
As such, the most common form of contract restructuring involves converting a portion of a player’s base salary for a given year into a new signing bonus. That bonus can then be spread out over several years, moving it away from the current season.
This is exactly the sort of agreement the Vikings and linebacker Eric Kendricks reached this offseason. In 2018, the Vikings signed Kendricks to a five-year, $50MM deal. This year, the Vikes moved some of that cash around to give themselves breathing room under the cap. Minnesota converted $2.15MM of Kendricks’ $4.15MM salary for 2019 into a salary bonus, which created about $1.72MM in space.
Restructuring a contract by converting base salary to a signing bonus creates immediate relief, but also creates problems in future years. A year from now, the Ravens may have to make another move with Kendricks, which will likely mean restructuring his deal once again, to reduce a larger cap number for 2019.
There are ways a player can remain under contract with a team while also helping to create or maintain both short-term and long-term cap flexibility. A player agreeing to take a pay cut, for instance, could allow a team to reduce his current cap number without necessarily moving that money further down the line in the contract. However, that generally happens in situations in which the team’s leverage outweighs the player’s leverage.
In most cases then, a restructured contract that sees base salary converted into bonus money is the simplest short-term fix for a club. The bill will come due eventually, but restructuring a deal allows a team to put off a more significant decision for at least one more year.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Joel Corry and Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.