Release Candidate: Alec Ogletree
Giants GM Dave Gettleman is entering a make-or-break offseason. While plenty of fans were clamoring for his ouster at the conclusion of the 2019 campaign, team ownership elected to give him another shot to right the ship, but if Big Blue should disappoint again in 2020, Gettleman will almost certainly be gone.
So he needs to tread carefully when navigating free agency and the draft and in determining which players to jettison from the roster. LB Alec Ogletree, whom Gettleman acquired via trade with the Rams in 2018, presents an interesting case study in that regard.
Ogletree, a former first-round pick of the then-St. Louis Rams in 2013, has never been an advanced metrics darling. But he has been a full-time starter throughout his first seven years in the league, and he has even been something of a playmaker, accumulating 12 interceptions and four pick-sixes in his career. He typically plays all or almost all of his team’s defensive snaps, and in the years in which he has played a full 16-game slate, he has recorded well over 100 tackles.
On the other hand, the only Ogletree team that has qualified for the postseason was the 2017 Rams, so perhaps Ogletree’s playing time and the raw numbers that go along with that are attributable at least in part to the fact that he hasn’t played on particularly good clubs. He has never made the Pro Bowl and has not quite lived up to his status as a first-round pick, which suggests that the Giants could part ways with him this offseason and save $8.25MM against the cap in the process.
That savings must look tempting to Gettleman, but keeping the Georgia product also has its merits. Although the Giants do not lead the league in cap space, their $61MM of estimated room is nothing to sneeze at, so the financial benefits of releasing Ogletree are not as critical as they might otherwise be. And the team’s defense is young and will be learning a new scheme under DC Patrick Graham, so Ogletree’s experience and leadership could be a boon to Graham’s unit. Plus, Gettleman has never been one to put much stock in advanced metrics, so the fact that Ogletree doesn’t score highly in that department probably doesn’t bother him too much (though he did dangle Ogletree in trade talks in advance of the 2019 deadline).
Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv recently suggested that a pay cut may be in the cards, and it’s easy to see why. Ogletree is certainly not worth the $10MM he is due to make in base salary in 2020, and he would not fetch that much on the open market. A reduction, though, may still pay him more than he would earn as a free agent, it would give him a shot at staying with the Giants in 2021 and earning the $9MM that he is due for that season, and the Giants would get a little more cap flexibility.
That sounds like a win-win for both sides, but if Ogletree doesn’t agree to a pay cut, either on principle or because he might want an opportunity to catch on with a team that gives him a better chance at a title, he could be playing elsewhere in 2020.
Shaq Barrett Willing To Give Bucs Hometown Discount?
If he were to hit the open market, Buccaneers pass rusher Shaq Barrett would be one of the most sought-after players in the league. However, Tampa head coach Bruce Arians recently indicated the team would not let Barrett get away, and Barrett himself expressed his desire to remain with the Bucs.
In fact, Barrett may be willing to give Tampa a hometown discount in order to facilitate a deal. In a recent interview with SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio (via Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk), Barrett said, “If [other teams] offer me more than Tampa…I’m going to look at what their taxes is compared to Tampa’s. Because I ain’t going to live in L.A. and get taxed crazy. I’m not going to take drastically less but I am open to doing what I think is best for my career, and I think that would be staying in Tampa.”
Barrett understandably likes the fact that Florida does not have a state income tax, and he talked about how much he dislikes moving, which could also play a role in his decision. And though the Bucs have enough cap space to accommodate him while addressing other areas of need, they surely wouldn’t complain if Barrett gives them a discount.
Obviously, Tampa would like to get something done before other teams get a chance to whisper sweet nothings in Barrett’s ear. His 2019 effort with the Bucs was a stunning improvement over his output during his five years in Denver, but he did show enough flashes with the Broncos to suggest that his performance last season was not a fluke, so he stands to get paid like a premium pass rusher.
Last season, which culminated with Barrett’s first Pro Bowl bid, the 27-year-old posted a league-leading 19.5 sacks to go along with an interception and six forced fumbles.
East Notes: Rivers, Jets, Ogletree
The Patriots drafted edge rusher Derek Rivers in the third round of the 2017 draft, but the Youngstown State product has played in just six regular season games over his first three years in the pros. His entire rookie campaign was wiped out due to a torn ACL, he had a limited workload in 2018, and he sustained a knee injury during a preseason game in August that landed him on IR for all of 2019.
But as Mike Reiss of ESPN.com writes, Rivers still features heavily in New England’s plans. Reiss says Rivers remains a constant presence at the team’s facility, and if the team cannot retain free agent Kyle Van Noy — which is quite possible, given the amount of cap space that will need to be devoted to the offensive side of the ball, including the quarterback position — Rivers will need to step up.
Now for more from the league’s east divisions:
- Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv takes a look at a few Jets who could be cap casualties this offseason. Most of them — like CB Trumaine Johnson, whom we recently discussed as a release candidate — are obvious choices, but players like Jonotthan Harrison and Avery Williamson are more difficult calls. Vacchiano believes the club would be wise to retain Harrison at least as a depth option, and he suggests Williamson could be back on a reworked contract.
- In a separate piece, Vacchiano names a few players the Jets should target in free agency, assuming their current teams don’t retain them. Unsurprisingly, he believes Gang Green should target the top of the O-line (Brandon Scherff, Jack Conklin) and WR (Amari Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders) markets.
- Vacchiano undergoes the same exercises for the Giants that he did for the Jets. For Big Blue, he names LB Alec Ogletree as the most likely player to be cut on his list of seven names, and he also believes Conklin would be a perfect fit for the G-Men.
- Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic summarizes the changes to the coaching staff that the Eagles recently made official. We had previously passed along most of those names, though Kapadia’s list also includes Andrew Breiner (hired as pass game analyst) and Dino Vasso (promoted to assistant defensive coordinator). He also offers his take on the changes, including his observation that the offensive staff now includes coaches who have very different schematic backgrounds, which suggests that Philadelphia will try to incorporate a wide variety of looks in 2020.
49ers’ Dee Ford Will Not Need Surgery
The 49ers acquired edge rusher Dee Ford from the Chiefs last offseason via tag-and-trade and then signed him to a five-year, $85MM contract. When healthy, Ford played reasonably well in 2019, but injuries limited him during his first season in the Bay Area.
The 28-year-old (29 in March) dealt with knee, quad, and hamstring injuries throughout the year, and he ultimately played in just 11 regular season contests. Even when he did suit up, San Francisco sometimes kept him on a pitch count, and he ultimately played in just 22% of the team’s defensive snaps.
Luckily, the 49ers had a great deal of depth along their defensive front, so they could withstand Ford’s absence. But the team doesn’t have a ton of cap space and needs to address the contract situations of defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead, as well as tight end George Kittle. Armstead is reportedly open to playing out the 2020 season under the franchise tag, but San Francisco may need to cut ties with him, and if that happens, Ford will become much more important to the club’s pass rush.
And despite the list of ailments that Ford suffered through, he is not expected to need surgery this offseason, according to GM John Lynch (via Chris Biderman of the Sacramento Bee). “Not as we know right now,” Lynch said. “We’ll have those conversations. But, I think Dee is in good health right now.”
That could go a long way towards helping Lynch sort out his offseason priorities. If he can reasonably rely on a healthy offseason from Ford, that may allow him to save money on Armstead while addressing arguably more important free agents, like WR Emmanuel Sanders.
Poll: Who Will Tom Brady Play For In 2020?
As expected, Tom Brady‘s name has become a mainstay in NFL headlines as we creep closer to the opening of free agency in March. Even as the 2019 season was in progress, his future in the league was often discussed, and several teams were rumored as potential landing spots if he should continue his playing career and elect to leave the Patriots.
And while Brady put an end to any retirement drama immediately after New England’s ouster from the playoffs by saying he would return to the field in 2020, the question of where he will play is still very much unsettled.
The Chargers, long rumored as a possible fit, were definitively linked to Brady just last week, when Ian Rapoport of NFL.com confirmed that the Bolts would make a push for the six-time Super Bowl champ. Given the talent that LA boasts at the skill positions and the fact that the club could incorporate Brady’s TB12 workout facility into its brand new stadium — not to mention Brady’s connections to SoCal — a Chargers-Brady partnership is a logical one.
But LA’s division rival, the Raiders, are also planning to pursue the future Hall of Famer. Adding Brady at this point in his career would not necessarily represent a slam-dunk upgrade over Derek Carr, but it would make a ton of sense from a marketing perspective for the Las Vegas-bound outfit and for Brady, and if the Raiders improve their receiving corps — which they are fully expected to do — they could compete for a wildcard berth in 2020.
The Colts and Titans have been more speculative fits than anything else, but the Colts hung around the playoff picture for much of the 2019 season, the AFC South looks like it will be up for grabs again in 2020, and Brady could be the boost that gets Indianapolis back to the postseason. The Colts are also flush with cap space, so they could afford to sign Brady while also providing him with a couple of additional weapons, though they already have a few talented pieces at the skill positions.
Of course, the Titans were the team that ended the Patriots’ 2019 playoff run, and they advanced to the AFC Championship game behind a dominant running game and good defense. Ryan Tannehill was more of a game manager in the playoffs than he was in his regular season renaissance, and recent reports have suggested that Tennessee may not be as committed to him as was once believed. If Brady is interested, the Titans may be, too.
And then there’s the Patriots, who became one of the all-time great dynasties in sports with Brady under center. Owner Robert Kraft has made it clear that he wants Brady back, but some around the league believe the 42-year-old will leave Foxborough, leaving the Pats without a definitive answer at QB for the first time in 20 years.
So what do you think? Will Brady remain with the only team he has ever known, or will he play out the remainder of his career trying to bring glory to another franchise? Vote in the poll below and show your work in the comments.
Who will Tom Brady play for in 2020?
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Patriots 58% (2,147)
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Raiders 13% (480)
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Chargers 12% (448)
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Another team 9% (327)
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Colts 4% (137)
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Titans 4% (135)
Total votes: 3,674
Latest On 49ers WR Trent Taylor
Despite Deebo Samuel‘s strong rookie season and the acquisition of veteran Emmanuel Sanders at the trade deadline, the 49ers have some question marks at wide receiver heading into next season. For instance, Sanders is ticketed for free agency, and while San Francisco will surely attempt to re-sign him, the club does have other key players with contract issues that need to be resolved and not a ton of cap space.
Plus, 2018 second-rounder Dante Pettis has failed to impress in his first two seasons in the league, 2019 third-rounder Jalen Hurd spent his entire rookie campaign on IR, and Marquise Goodwin will almost certainly be cut. So, in short, there is still an opportunity for Trent Taylor to have an impact on the team moving forward.
The Niners selected Taylor in the fifth round of the 2017 draft, HC Kyle Shanahan‘s and GM John Lynch‘s first in San Francisco. He showed promise as a receiver and as a punt returner in his rookie season, but he underwent back surgery prior to the 2018 campaign and said he never felt fully healthy that year.
He then missed all of 2019 due to a broken foot, so he is entering a critical moment in his career. He obviously needs to prove he can stay healthy and prove he can perform on the field, and that is especially important given that he will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2021.
Last week, Taylor underwent five different procedures on his foot, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He is currently in a walking boot, and while he is expected to be out of the boot soon, there is no set timetable on his return. At this point, we don’t know if he will be fully recovered in time for offseason workouts.
As such, the Niners can’t afford to rely on Taylor in 2020. If he should perform well, that will be an added bonus, but the team needs to retain Sanders and may add a receiver or two in a WR-rich draft.
49ers Sign DL Willie Henry, Four Others To Futures Deals
After passing along the names of seven players that signed futures deals with the 49ers yesterday, including CB Teez Tabor, we have five more to report today. One of those players is DL Willie Henry, a former fourth-round pick of the Ravens.
Baltimore selected Henry, a Michigan product, in the 2016 draft. After sitting out his entire rookie campaign, he was a key piece of the club’s D-line rotation in 2017, appearing in 14 games (three starts) and compiling 33 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and five passes defensed. But an umbilical hernia limited him to just three games in 2018, and the Ravens cut him prior to the 2019 season.
His past performance made him a very popular man on the workout circuit in 2019, but he did not sign with anyone. Perhaps he can carve out a role for himself as a member of the 49ers’ stout defensive front.
Here are the other players who signed futures deals with San Francisco today:
Panthers Re-Sign DB Cole Luke
The Panthers have re-signed exclusive rights free agent CB Cole Luke to a one-year deal, the team announced. Luke finally got his first taste of regular season action last year, appearing in eight games for Carolina.
Luke, a Notre Dame product, hooked on with the Panthers as a UDFA in 2017. He spent most of his rookie season on IR with an ankle injury, and he was on he club’s practice squad for the entire 2018 campaign.
He got bumped up from the taxi squad halfway through the 2019 season, though most of his work came on special teams. He played just 15 defensive snaps against 117 special teams snaps, and he recorded two total tackles.
Still, the Panthers are in something of a transition period, and corners James Bradberry, Ross Cockrell, and Javien Elliott are all eligible for unrestricted free agency. While Carolina will almost certainly bring back Bradberry, there could be an opportunity for Luke to climb the depth chart in 2020.
AFC North Notes: Burrow, Stefanski, Ravens
The Bengals are widely expected to take LSU QB Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, but there may be a bit of intrigue in that regard, per Albert Breer of SI.com. Burrow will work with former Bengal Jordan Palmer, the little brother of franchise icon Carson Palmer, for his pre-draft training. And the elder Palmer recently had some critical comments for Cincinnati, saying that the club was never really dedicated to chasing a Super Bowl.
Burrow subsequently said the following: “[y]ou want to go No. 1. But you also want to go to a great organization that is committed to winning. Committed to winning Super Bowls.” That may just be a coincidence, and Burrow’s father recently downplayed any notion that Burrow doesn’t want to be picked by the Bengals (Twitter link via Jeremy Rauch of FOX 19), but Breer believes Bengals Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin may need to sell Burrow on the team just a bit.
Now for more from the AFC North:
- As expected, the Bengals have promoted Dan Pitcher to quarterbacks coach after Alex Van Pelt left for Cleveland’s OC job, the team announced. Pitcher will have a significant role in Burrow’s development, assuming Cincy selects the LSU signal-caller.
- We passed along some remarks from new Browns GM Andrew Berry earlier today, and new Cleveland HC Kevin Stefanski also took to the podium. Scott Patsko of Cleveland.com passes along the entire transcript, which is worth a read for Browns fans, but much of it was fairly non-committal coach-speak, which Stefanski has already mastered. Stefanski, though, made it a point to note that he will be heavily involved in making personnel decisions with Berry, and he said he does not know who will be calling offensive plays this year.
- Though the Ravens have more cap flexibility this year than in past seasons, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic does not expect a spending spree. He predicts perhaps one big-ticket item and a few modest signings, and much will depend on what the club decides to do with pass rusher Matt Judon — a situation that is still fluid — and whether RG Marshal Yanda retires. He also names OL James Hurst as a potential release candidate.
- Steelers president Art Rooney II indicated his club may target a RB and/or WR in free agency, per Teresa Varley of Steelers.com, though Rooney said Pittsburgh is content with the quarterback situation as it is. Behind Ben Roethlisberger, the club will roll with some combination of Mason Rudolph, Duck Hodges, and Paxton Lynch.
Latest On 49ers, Jimmie Ward
The 49ers have a number of critical decisions to make this offseason, and one of them concerns safety Jimmie Ward, a pending free agent. San Francisco selected Ward in the first round of the 2014 draft, and he has spent his entire six-year career with the club.
He was also eligible for unrestricted free agency last offseason, but he had to settle for a fairly modest one-year pact, largely as a result of his injury history and his relatively uneven tenure with the Niners to that point. But he turned in his best season to date in 2019, starting all 13 regular season games in which he appeared (plus three more in the playoffs), and he finally settled in at the free safety position after playing various roles in the defensive backfield in previous years.
Advanced metrics were fond of his work, and he was a key component of San Francisco’s suffocating secondary, which was No. 2 in the league in defensive DVOA. As such, he could be in for a lucrative multiyear pact, and he hopes he gets one from the 49ers. “This is where I would like to be,” Ward said (via Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area). “I like to continue playing for this great organization.”
Ward acknowledges that the club has a number of other players it needs to take care of, so he does not know if he fits into the long-term plans. That is especially true given that the Niners are near the bottom of the league in projected cap space in 2020. “The 49ers have the upper hand right now,” Ward said.
But regardless of where he signs, Ward wants to stay at safety. “Yes, it’s amazing I can do other things, too,” he said. “But leave me at safety. That’s what I love to do. That’s what I’m most passionate about. Basically, if it don’t work out with the 49ers, I’m going to look at any possibilities with teams that want me to play safety.”