Raiders To Make Sweeping Changes?
The Raiders are preparing to make sweeping changes, changes that involve current GM Reggie McKenzie, according to a tweet from ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Schefter, citing league sources, added that owner Mark Davis is “getting ready to spend.”
Of course, McKenzie has been on the hot seat for some time, and the Raiders have been connected in numerous reports to current 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh. They have also been reportedly interested in relocating to Los Angeles or even San Antonio. Furthermore, according to OverTheCap.com, Oakland is expected to have the most salary cap space of any team in the league this offseason, so Davis certainly will have money to spend.
As such, Schefter’s tweet probably does not come as much of a surprise to anyone, as the Raiders have been at least contemplating “sweeping changes” for a long time. It does indicate, however, that team officials have fully embraced the possibility of yet another major shakeup in Oakland (or Los Angeles, or somewhere else entirely).
AFC East Notes: Dolphins’ D, McCourty, Idzik
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, noting that the Dolphins defense is not the consistently stout force that defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle claims, took a look at the immediate future of each position in Coyle’s unit this morning. For instance, Jackson writes that defensive tackle Randy Starks is unlikely to return on his current contract, which creates a $6MM cap hit if Starks is on the team, and a $1MM hit if he is not.
Jackson adds that is is “highly questionable” if Miami will pay Jared Odrick what he could make on the open market, and the departures of both Odrick and Starks would force the team to go shopping for a run-stuffer like Dan Williams or Terrance Knighton in free agency. While the defensive end position is more or less set for 2015, Jackson notes that linebacker Dannell Ellerbe will either need to accept a pay cut or be released, and he points out that there is a strong class of free agent corners for the team to pursue as it seeks a reliable starter opposite Brent Grimes.
Now for a few more notes from the AFC East:
- Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald tweets that there is “nothing happening” on an extension between the Patriots and Devin McCourty, and that New England is expected to use the franchise tag as major leverage.
- Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com writes that one reason the Patriots might have agreed to a recent extension with Marcus Cannon is that it helps to thaw the team’s relationship with Cannon’s agent, David Dunn, a relationship that soured during the Wes Welker negotiations several seasons ago. Dunn, one of the game’s most successful agents, also represents Nate Solder, who will be a free agent in 2016, and Shane Vereen, who hits free agency after this season.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes that Jets GM John Idzik has been involved in the early stages of the team’s head coaching search, and La Canfora wonders if that might be a sign that Idzik’s job is safe. Although owner Woody Johnson could still parts ways with Idzik, particularly if the team lands a big-ticket head coach who wants a different general manager, Idzik’s early involvement and his ties to potential head coaching candidates are positive signs for him.
- Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com takes a look at the Jets’ bad fortune in recent years, noting that the team’s worst seasons tend to coincide with fairly weak drafts or drafts with no elite quarterback prospects.
- In the same piece, Cimini writes that nose tackle Damon Harrison, who has been one of the few bright spots for the Jets this season, is likely to receive the max tender (which is expected to be higher than 2014’s $3.1MM figure) as he hits restricted free agency.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul
In 2011, just his second year in the league, Jason Pierre-Paul displayed in grand fashion just what made him so appealing to the Giants, who selected him with the 15th overall pick of the 2010 draft. Using a rare and dynamic blend of size, speed, and athleticism, the man affectionately known as “JPP” racked up 16.5 sacks and was ranked by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) as the league’s sixth best 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible players. Pierre-Paul also led his position in total tackles, and he earned first-team All-Pro honors in recognition of his efforts as the most dangerous defensive player on the eventual Super Bowl champions.
It would have been difficult to top his outstanding 2011 campaign, but there seems to be a general belief, probably driven in large part by his lower sack totals, that Pierre-Paul has not even come close to replicating his performance from that season. Although he did amass only 6.5 sacks in 2012, PFF (subscription required) ranked him third among 62 qualified 4-3 defensive ends that year, and after an injury-shortened 2013, JPP is up to his old tricks this season, ranking as the fourth-best player at his position among 54 eligible players (subscription required). Although the Giants’ defense as a whole has been fairly pedestrian over the course of Pierre-Paul’s career (according to Football Outsiders’ metrics), Pierre-Paul seems to be holding up his end of the bargain.
Nonetheless, the two sides appear headed for a parting of the ways after 2014. As PFR’s Rob DiRe wrote last month, Pierre-Paul appeared ambivalent about returning to the club in 2015, stating, “Hey, if I’m here, I’m here, if I’m not, I’m not.” JPP did deliver the usual platitudes while discussing how much he has enjoyed his time as a Giant, but for a struggling team that has a bevy of potentially franchise-altering questions to answer this offseason, a mega-deal for Pierre-Paul might not be the wisest investment, no matter how much cap room New York might have.
So what will a new contract look like for a player in the prime of his career who plays a premium position and who may hit double-digit sack totals for the second time in four full seasons in the league? Robert Quinn, a 4-3 defensive end who was drafted one year later than Pierre-Paul and who has put together three consecutive seasons of 10.5 or more sacks (including a whopping 19 in 2013), signed a four-year extension with St. Louis in September, a deal worth about $67MM.
That contract seems to be a fair benchmark for JPP, although he stands to make more on the open market than he would if he were to sign an extension with New York. Another reasonable comparison might be Justin Houston, a premier pass rusher from the outside linebacker position who expects to land a contract valued somewhere between Quinn’s deal and the extension recently signed by J.J. Watt, a six-year pact worth as much as $100MM (with $51.8MM guaranteed). A five-year deal worth $80MM would seem like a fair price for both Houston and JPP, and that is about what I would expect both players to make on the free agent market.
Of course, the franchise tag remains an option, but as Paul Schwartz of the New York Post pointed out in October, the nearly $15MM projected cost of the tag “is impractical and probably impossible for the Giants to handle.” Schwartz also notes that Pierre-Paul, who was just 21 when he was drafted, is hitting free agency at a younger age than most players, and his willingness and ability to stop the run is not only an underrated part of his game, but also an attribute often difficult to find among so-called pass-rush specialists.
The knocks on JPP, of course, are his injury history—he struggled with back and shoulder injuries in 2012 and 2013—his relatively modest sack total after 2011, and the fact that much of his success is based on his athleticism rather than his technique, which is still raw in many ways. But, as Schwartz wrote, and as Pro Football Focus evaluations indicate, the sack totals are not indicative of Pierre-Paul’s abilities, and if he can complete 2014 in good health, the injury concerns may begin to fade. So while JPP’s next contract will probably not match Watt’s, he could get surprisingly close—especially in this era of the ever-increasing salary cap—and his departure would leave a very big hole in Big Blue. The Giants will have to decide if mending that hole is worth the price.
Sammie Hill Accused Of Sexual Assault
Titans defensive tackle Sammie Hill has been accused of sexual assault and the claim is being investigated by the Atlanta Police Department, according to Jordan Buie of the Tennessean. As Buie writes, a 37-year-old woman in Houston contacted Houston police last Wednesday and reported that she was assaulted by Hill in a hotel room in Atlanta.
Hill, who has two sacks and 25 total tackles this season, has discussed the matter with the Titans, who released the following statement:
“We will let the police investigate the allegation and we will provide any assistance they need. We have discussed the matter with Sammie and we will continue to gather facts.”
We will pass along more information as it becomes available.
Monday Roundup: QB Dilemmas, Pitta, Lewis
After predictably non-committal responses in his post-game press conference yesterday, Browns head coach Mike Pettine said today that “it’s natural to lean the other way” when considering who his starting quarterback should be moving forward (per ESPN.com’s Pat McManamon) The “other way” in this case is, of course, Johnny Manziel, whom Dennis Manoloff of the Cleveland Plain Dealer believes will get the nod over the struggling Brian Hoyer in next week’s matchup against Cincinnati.
Now for some more links from around the league:
- Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com writes that the Ravens expect Dennis Pitta to return in 2015 and that his second major hip injury will not force him into retirement.
- Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall supports quarterback Jay Cutler, but Marshall agrees with reports that the team is probably experiencing buyer’s remorse for Cutler’s contract, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPN.com.
- The Jets will work out cornerback Keith Lewis tomorrow, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun (writing for the National Football Post).
- Rick Stroud of the Tampa Times writes that Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith will re-evaluate whether Josh McCown or Mike Glennon should be the bridge to the franchise quarterback that many believe the team will select with its first pick in next year’s draft. Stroud notes that Glennon, at least, could show enough in the season’s final three weeks to generate some trade interest, and an Associated Press report suggests that Tampa Bay could indeed turn to Glennon down the stretch.
- The Eagles‘ poor offensive showing against Seattle naturally generated a great deal of conversation regarding the team’s quarterback situation, especially with Nick Foles‘ return nearing, writes Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. However, head coach Chip Kelly said simply, “I have no updates on Nick.”
- Like its division rivals, Washington has a quarterback dilemma on its hands, but Gary Mihoces of USA Today writes that head coach Jay Gruden will wait for an update on Colt McCoy‘s neck sprain before naming a starter for Week 15.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com looks at the players who saw their stock drop in Week 14, including, of course, Hoyer.
Sunday Roundup: Big Ben, Cobb, 49ers
The Steelers plan to begin contract talks with Ben Roethlisberger, who is under contract through 2015, after this season, according to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports. Pittsburgh realizes that Roethlisberger, despite his age and the number of hits he has taken over the course of his career, will command at least $20MM a year, but that will not prevent the club from making its two-time Super Bowl champion its top offseason priority.
La Canfora adds that he would not be surprised if the Steelers and Roethlisberger were able to work out an extension prior to the beginning of the free agency period in March, which would allow them to know exactly how much cap flexibility they would have to acquire players from other organizations and to retain their own free agents. Last season’s rumors that Roethlisberger once considered asking for a trade were apparently untrue, La Canfora writes, and now all interested parties agree that a third contract with the team is inevitable.
Now for some more links from around the league as Week 14 kicks off in full force:
- ESPN’s Adam Caplan tweets that the Steelers will have an important decision to make regarding cornerback Cortez Allen this offseason, as Allen is owed a $3MM roster bonus on the fifth day of free agency.
- Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes that Randall Cobb is the Packers‘ top free agent priority and that the team is working to work out a long-term extension with him.
- Although a possible 49ers trade of head coach Jim Harbaugh following the 2014 season has been widely discussed, the machinations of such a deal are a little less clear. As Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets, Harbaugh would pick his new team, the 49ers would agree to trade terms with that team, the 49ers would release Harbaugh from his contract, and Harbaugh would sign a new deal with the other club.
- Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com writes that Vernon Davis‘ disappointing 2014 season has created a great deal of uncertainty for the 49ers moving forward, as Davis is owed just shy of $5MM in 2015, the last year of his current contract.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports tweets that highly-coveted CFL prospect Duron Carter will hold a Pro Day in Florida in early January and then will begin visiting teams. Almost half of the league has expressed some form of interest in Carter to date.
- Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that Mike Singletary could be a surprise head coaching candidate in 2015. According to Rapoport, several “high-ranking people” believe Singletary will get another crack at the top job next season.
East Notes: Revis, Briles, Cowboys
The Patriots will have a big decision to make regarding the future of star cornerback Darrelle Revis this offseason, and Tom Curran and Mike Giardi of CSNNewEngland.com discuss in a video piece what that decision will entail. Although Revis has stated that he does not need to be the highest paid cornerback in the league to be happy, Curran and Giardi note that Revis is a shrewd businessman and that it will take a fair (read: highly-lucrative) offer to get a deal done.
Let’s take a look at a few more items from the league’s east divisions:
- In the same piece, Curran and Giardi examine how the Patriots might negotiate with injured linebacker Jerod Mayo. They note that New England may approach Mayo with an incentive-laden offer based upon health, which was the team’s strategy when negotiating with Vince Wilfork.
- Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com writes that losing Aaron Dobson for the season serves as yet another reminder of how difficult it has been for the Patriots to draft and develop quality receiving talent under Bill Belichick (though Belichick has usually done more than enough to compensate for that deficiency in other ways).
- In a piece that will probably surprise no one, ESPN’s Adam Schefter writes that Jets GM John Idzik has alienated members of his coaching staff and front office, further fueling the belief that the team’s administration will undergo a complete overhaul in the offseason.
- Jason Cole of Bleacher Report notes (via Twitter) that if Washington fires first-year head coach Jay Gruden after the 2014 season (as PFR’s Rob DiRe discussed last night), the team should pursue current Baylor University head coach Art Briles, whose offense would mesh well with Robert Griffin III‘s skillset. Albert Breer of the NFL Network, however, tweets that it would be a “shocker” if Briles were to leave Texas.
- Todd Archer of ESPNDallas.com describes how the Cowboys might go about manipulating their salary cap in order to create enough room to retain Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, and Rolando McClain, but he notes that the player Dallas should really focus on is right tackle Doug Free.
More On Brian Hoyer’s Immediate Future
NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport writes that the Browns will continue to start Brian Hoyer at quarterback as long as the team is in the playoff hunt. However, Cleveland faces a daunting task against the Colts today, and a loss would thrust head coach Mike Pettine right back into a quarterback quandary next week. If that happens, Rapoport believes that Pettine would ride with rookie Johnny Manziel.
As PFR’s Zach Links wrote a few days ago, ESPN’s Adam Schefter believes that Hoyer will leave Cleveland in the offseason, possibly to reunite with Bill O’Brien in Houston. Schefter reiterated that point (via Twitter) this morning, noting that if the Browns fail to make the playoffs this hear, Hoyer will not be re-signed.
Rapoport On Bears’ Future
Ian Rapoport of NFL.com examined the respective futures of some of the key figures within the Bears organization this morning, and the most notable item he passed along (via Twitter) is that, barring significant improvement, the team plans to fire defensive coordinator Mel Tucker after the 2014 season.
As for head coach Marc Trestman, whose job is in serious jeopardy, Rapoport tweets that he is not convinced Trestman will be replaced. This is in line with reports that PFR’s Ben Levine passed along yesterday, and there is something to be said for having some sort of consistency at the head coaching position and for giving a coach the chance to work through adversity early in his tenure with a club.
The elephant in the room, of course, is quarterback Jay Cutler, whom the team considered benching during its matchup with Tampa Bay several weeks ago (per a tweet from Rapoport). Rapoport adds (via Twitter) that the Bears have serious buyer’s remorse over Cutler’s contract, and that there is doubt within the front office that the team can consistently win with Cutler under center. Rapoport also tweets that the team could save $12.5MM against the salary cap if they could somehow trade Cutler in the offseason, and Jason Fitzergald of OverTheCap.com adds (via Twitter) that a trade would save the club $30MM of guaranteed salary over the next several years . Needless to say, it would be difficult to find a team willing to trade for Cutler at this point, but such a move would give the team and (possibly) Trestman the chance to start anew with a little financial flexibility to boot.
Updating Jim Harbaugh’s Market
Although the 49ers remain in the NFC playoff picture, speculation as to where current head coach Jim Harbaugh will land in 2015 has been swirling for some time. Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports provides an updated look at the teams that have been linked most closely with Harbaugh and their chances of landing the coveted sideline general:
- The Raiders, of course, are currently seen as the most likely contender for Harbaugh’s services. La Canfora points out that while the 49ers would prefer to keep Harbaugh out of the same media market, trading him out of the NFC is a bigger priority, and Oakland could offer the best return. It is also worth noting that the Raiders were involved in the league’s last head coaching trade, when they sent Jon Gruden to Tampa Bay (incidentally, Gruden, who has been linked to Oakland’s impending head coaching vacancy, is expected to remain an ESPN commentator for the foreseeable future).
- The Dolphins are in the think of the AFC playoff race, but owner Stephen Ross‘ desire to have Harbaugh on his team’s sidelines has long been public knowledge. La Canfora notes that Ross is desperate “for a face-of-the-franchise to attract fan support” and “for a coach he can sell and try to add value to his franchise as he seeks a move to Los Angeles.” Citing unnamed sources, La Canfora writes that Ross’ desire for Harbaugh “cannot be understated.”
- We learned last week that the Jets could be in the mix for Harbaugh, and while such a move would necessarily entail GM Jon Idzik‘s departure, Idzik looks to be on the outs in New York anyway.
- Although Harbaugh is a logical candidate for the University of Michigan head coaching position, Harbaugh is reportedly not interested in that job. La Canfora writes that Harbaugh’s family has ties with outgoing Wolverines coach Brady Hoke and that Harbaugh is more interested in NFL opportunities.