Browns Likely To Acquire Running Back
Free agent running back Kareem Hunt, who spent the last four years as Nick Chubb‘s backup and occasional 1-B option in Cleveland, finally generated some interest several days ago, when it was reported that the Commanders had made “preliminary inquiries” into his services. The Browns, meanwhile, decided several months ago that they would allow Hunt to seek opportunities elsewhere and would move 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford into Hunt’s place on the depth chart.
That does not mean, however, that GM Andrew Berry is averse to adding more talent to the RB room. Berry did not select a running back in this year’s draft and has not yet acquired a veteran in free agency, but Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com believes he will ultimately do just that. She does caution that high-profile players like Ezekiel Elliott and the recently-released Dalvin Cook are not likely targets, and that the Browns will seek a player that could be had on a more modest deal. Speculatively, a back like Justin Jackson, James Robinson, or Kenyan Drake could fit the bill.
Chubb, who has earned Pro Bowl acclaim in each of the past four seasons, will obviously continue to serve as the focal point of Cleveland’s running game. Ford tallied a meager eight carries for 12 yards in his rookie campaign, but his efforts as the club’s primary kick returner (30 returns for 723 yards) suggest that he could be a useful complementary piece and Hunt-esque receiver out of the backfield. Indeed, as Cabot notes in a separate article (subscription required), Chubb has lauded Ford’s pass-catching ability, and the Browns’ coaching staff and front office clearly have a great deal of faith in his ability to take on an expanded role.
Still, another experienced option couldn’t hurt, as the Browns lost D’Ernest Johnson — who impressed in limited opportunities over the first four years of his career in Cleveland — to the Jaguars in free agency. At present, 2021 sixth-rounder Demetric Felton (eight career carries) is penciled in as the RB3.
Chubb, by virtue of the three-year, $36MM extension he signed in 2021, is under club control for the next two seasons.
Latest On Negotiations Between Dolphins, DT Christian Wilkins
It does not sound as if the Dolphins and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins have made much progress on an extension. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald says that while both sides remain motivated to get a deal done, an agreement remains elusive.
Notably, Jackson does not suggest that player and team are any closer to an accord now than they were when negotiations commenced several months ago. Jackson has noted previously that guaranteed money could prove to be a sticking point in contract talks, which is often the case when the player in question plays a highly-compensated position.
If the ‘Fins were to allow Wilkins to play out the 2023 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal — which will pay him $10.7MM — they could simply hit him with the franchise tag in 2024. Jackson writes that Wilkins, predictably, would be unhappy with that course of action, though the tag for DTs is estimated to be worth $20.8MM. A second tag in 2025 would check in at roughly $25MM, so Wilkins may be targeting guaranteed money at least equal to the sum of those two figures, or $45.8MM (though that is just my speculation).
To date, nine interior defenders are playing on contracts featuring $45MM in guarantees, and six of those players enjoy AAVs over $20MM. Spotrac suggests that Wilkins — whose importance to Miami’s defense was underscored by his career-high 84% snap share and his stellar 82.2 overall grade from Pro Football Focus in 2022 — merits a four-year deal with an annual average just shy of $20MM.
Whether the Dolphins are willing to go to those lengths to retain Wilkins, who does not offer as much in the pass rush department as some of his peers, remains to be seen. Further complicating the matter is the fact that Wilkins’ defensive line bookend, Zach Sieler, is also pushing for a new deal as he enters his platform year.
Sieler’s next contract will not be as valuable as Wilkins’, but he could still be in line for an eight-figure yearly average. GM Chris Grier will therefore need to decide how much he wants to invest in his D-line, which he did not supplement with any free agent signings or draft picks this year. He also has to contend with a less-than-rosy financial outlook, as the Dolphins are projected to be $31.7MM over the 2024 cap as of the time of this writing.
Both Wilkins and Sieler are Drew Rosenhaus clients, and as Jackson points out, the ‘Fins generally take care of talent that the super-agent represents. Rosenhaus recently said that he would not be making any public comments on the contractual situations of either player.
Panthers Likely To Add Pass Rusher?
Earlier this month, we heard that the Panthers were presently disinclined to authorize a notable contract for a free agent pass rusher, and that fourth-year pro Yetur Gross-Matos would have a chance to retain his starting job opposite Brian Burns. We did note that GM Scott Fitterer would continue to monitor the edge defender market, and Joseph Person of The Athletic says he does, in fact, expect Carolina to add a pass rusher before the regular season opener (subscription required).
Person does not hazard a guess as to a specific player that Fitterer might target. Of course, there will always be cuts from other clubs that will quickly find a new home, but a top-flight pass rusher is highly unlikely to hit the market in the summer. And the existing market has thinned in the last several weeks, as Leonard Floyd (Bills) and Frank Clark (Broncos) have come off the board.
That still leaves plenty of worthwhile defenders available, including players like Yannick Ngakoue, Jadeveon Clowney, Robert Quinn, and Melvin Ingram. While some of those talents may be too rich for Fitterer’s liking — Ngakoue, for instance, was targeting a contract paying him $8MM-$10MM per year as of May — the Panthers will almost certainly be able to add an experienced edge player for an affordable price at some point in the next couple of months.
In the meantime, Gross-Matos, Marquis Haynes, and third-round rookie D.J. Johnson will continue to make their case for a starter’s role. According to Person, Haynes was particularly impressive during Carolina’s three-day mandatory minicamp last week, frequently getting into the offensive backfield and in the face of rookie quarterback Bryce Young.
Haynes, who has been used in a rotational capacity since the Panthers selected him in the fourth round of the 2018 draft, did see a career-high 41% snap share in 2022, and he produced five sacks (also a career best). Neither he nor Gross-Matos fared well in the eyes of Pro Football Focus’ metrics, but it is at least notable that he doubled Gross-Matos’ sack production and had three more QB hits while playing nearly 400 fewer snaps.
Person says that Haynes, who is entering a platform year and who is due just $1.4MM in 2023, may be better-suited to a stand-up OLB role in DC Ejiro Evero‘s 3-4 scheme than he was to a 4-3 look. He has certainly caught Young’s attention.
“He’s been great,” Young said. “There’s a lot of great competition here, so you see him in the backfield. It’s good on good. It’s elite guys going up against each other. It’s tough when you have to go up against him every day in practice. But on Sundays, it’s great knowing that you have a guy like that out there.”
Vikings Eyeing Extension For T.J. Hockenson
The Vikings have several talented pass catchers in line for lucrative extensions. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson is understandably dominating the headlines in that regard, and according to ESPN’s Kevin Seifert, the Jefferson negotiations are occupying the bulk of Minnesota’s attention at the moment (subscription required). Nonetheless, Seifert says that GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah plans to address tight end T.J. Hockenson‘s deal as well, even if that does not happen until later in the summer.
The Vikes acquired Hockenson via an intra-divisional swap with the Lions in advance of the 2022 trade deadline. In 10 regular season games in Minnesota, Hockenson posted 60 catches for 519 yards and three scores. His 8.7 yards per reception rate was somewhat disappointing in light of the 11.1 YPR average he enjoyed over 3+ years in Detroit, but that could be a result of small sample size noise and could improve with a full offseason of work in the Vikings’ offense. Hockenson demonstrated how explosive he can be in the club’s wildcard round loss to the Giants, racking up 10 catches (on 11 targets) for 129 yards.
Hockenson, who will turn 26 next month, is under club control through 2023 since Detroit exercised the fifth-year option of his rookie deal last April. He is due to earn $9.4MM for the upcoming season, which would represent something of a bargain given the current state of the TE market.
At present, 11 TEs are averaging $10MM or more per season, though that list includes Saints’ all-purpose weapon Taysom Hill. Spotrac estimates that Hockenson could score a contract with a $14.4MM AAV on the open market, a figure that would place him behind only the Giants’ Darren Waller and the 49ers’ George Kittle. Waller’s Raiders-constructed deal is comparatively light on guarantees, however, and Hockenson will likely be shooting for between $30MM-$40MM in guaranteed money (Kittle, the Ravens’ Mark Andrews, the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert, and the Bills’ Dawson Knox are the tight ends on non-rookie deals that feature guarantees in that range).
Pro Football Focus’ metrics considered Hockenson the 10th-best tight end in the league in 2022 despite subpar blocking grades. The Vikings did give Josh Oliver a notable free agent deal in March, and he offers plenty of blocking acumen. Plus, as Seifert writes, head coach Kevin O’Connell believes that pairing Hockenson and Oliver will allow his offense to live up to its full potential, and it does not appear that the Oliver signing impacts Hockenson’s future with the club in any way.
In related news, Craig Peters of the Vikings’ official website reports that recently-retired tight end Ben Ellefson will join the team’s staff in a hybrid role that will allow the Minnesota native to “explore coaching, scouting and player development opportunities.”
Broncos Unlikely To Sign Dalvin Cook
The Broncos’ running back depth chart is presently topped by Javonte Williams, who tore his ACL in October, and career second fiddle Samaje Perine. Given that, and given GM George Paton‘s Vikings ties, Denver has been considered a logical landing spot for four-time Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook, who was released by Minnesota several days ago.
Mike Klis of 9News.com has thrown some cold water on those rumors, reporting that the Broncos “do not appear to be in on” Cook. Before Cook’s release became official, Klis reported that Denver was highly unlikely to swing an eleventh-hour trade for him, and financial considerations certainly played a part in that decision. Had the Broncos acquired Cook via trade, they would have been on the hook for his $10.4MM salary in 2023, as Cook had no desire to work out a restructure as part of a trade. And the Vikings, who clearly cut Cook for cap reasons, may not have been inclined to eat much salary to facilitate a swap.
Even though Cook is now on the free agent market, money remains a key issue. Per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter), Cook still wants to make close to the $10.4MM salary he was due to earn with the Vikings, and multiple reporters (including Jackson) have suggested that he is willing to be patient in his efforts to secure that payout. At present, the Broncos only have about $6MM of cap space.
Of course, Denver could create the necessary salary cap room if it really wanted to, but on-field factors are also influencing the club’s decision to stay away from Cook. Williams participated in OTAs, and though he has yet to take part in 11-on-11 drills, Klis estimates that the third-year pro has a better than 50-50 chance to start the regular season opener. Williams clearly has RB1 ability, and even if he is not fully healthy for the start of the 2023 campaign, it does not make sense to sign Cook to a lucrative contract and not have a spot for Williams when he is ready to return to the field.
Klis does believe that the Broncos could seek to add another player with starting experience to its running back room, as the options behind Williams and Perine — Tony Jones, Jr., Tyler Badie, and UDFA rookie Jaleel McLaughlin — are either uninspiring or unproven. Such an addition, though, would be considerably less expensive than Cook.
If Cook’s market does not materialize in the way that he hopes, or if the current reports on Williams’ prognosis prove overly optimistic, it is possible that the Broncos could circle back to Cook (after all, they have reportedly monitored the Florida State product for some time). Until then, however, it appears that the Dolphins will remain the frontrunners for his services.
Cards LT D.J. Humphries Returns To Practice
Cardinals left tackle D.J. Humphries returned to the practice field for voluntary OTAs last week, per Darren Urban of the team’s official website. Humphries missed the second half of the 2022 season due to a back injury.
Humphries, a 2021 Pro Bowler, acknowledged that he “had to roll the dice a little bit” in electing to forego back surgery in favor of rehab. As of the time of this writing, he is not quite back to full strength, but he remains on track to suit up for Week 1 of the regular season.
Humphries’ shortened season was one of many difficulties that the Cardinals faced in 2022, and it was a disappointing setback for a player who dealt with significant injury issues in the early stages of his career but who had missed only one contest — a COVID-related absence — from 2019-21.
That newfound durability, along with generally solid play as Arizona’s blindside blocker, allowed Humphries to land multiple three-year contracts from the Cards. His current deal, which he signed last August and which was restructured in March, keeps him under club control through 2025.
Arizona did select Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr. with the No. 6 pick of this year’s draft, and it is still rostering 2020 third-rounder Josh Jones, who played well at left tackle in Humphries’ absence last season. Nonetheless, Urban expects Humphries to reclaim the starting LT job, with Johnson beginning his professional career on the right side.
Even a rebuilding outfit like Arizona benefits from a quality left tackle, and assuming he can stay healthy, Humphries is exactly that. He also comes at a reasonable price, as he is due under $16MM per season over the 2024-25 seasons. Thanks to the above-referenced restructure, Humphries is earning just $5.5MM in base salary in 2023, though that is because a chunk of his salary was converted to a signing bonus for cap purposes.
Unless they were to make him a post-June 1 cut or trade next year, the Cardinals cannot now feasibly extricate themselves from Humphries’ contract until the end of the 2024 season. That suggests that the club, like the player himself, did not worry that the back injury would be a career-threatening one, and that Humphries could remain on the roster for the foreseeable future.
Arizona’s three-day mandatory minicamp begins on Tuesday, at which point we may have more clarity on the team’s plans with respect to Humphries and Johnson.
Lions DE Charles Harris Agreed To Pay Cut
Lions defensive end Charles Harris agreed to a pay cut this offseason, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports (subscription required). Due to make $6MM in base pay in the second year of the two-year, $14MM contract he signed in March 2022, Harris agreed to a reduction to $3MM.
Harris, selected by the Dolphins in the first round of the 2017 draft, failed to live up to his draft status in Miami and was traded to the Falcons in exchange for a seventh-round pick in May 2020. The 2020 campaign was another nondescript one for Harris, who played in just 1/3 of Atlanta’s defensive snaps (though he did record three sacks, which was then a career-high).
The Lions took a low-cost flier on Harris in March 2021, and that move paid off in a big way, as the Missouri product led the team with 7.5 sacks and earned an excellent 78.7 pass rush grade from Pro Football Focus. Detroit rewarded Harris with the above-referenced two-year deal, but 2022 was mostly a lost year for the 28-year-old defender.
Harris recorded just one sack during the first four games of the season and suffered a groin injury near the end of a Week 4 loss to the Seahawks. He played in just two more games before landing on IR in November, and he spent this spring rehabbing from the surgery that followed his IR placement.
As such, he likely had no choice but to accept the reduction in pay. As Birkett notes, however, Harris did take first-team reps at outside linebacker during the Lions’ mandatory minicamp, and he will compete with the likes of James Houston and Julian Okwara as he seeks to reclaim a starting job.
Head coach Dan Campbell believes Harris is ready to do exactly that.
“Charles has picked up where he left off from before the injury,” Campbell said. “He has an injury. Well, he doesn’t miss a beat. He’s back at it, he’s working and to him it’s like, ‘I’m at the bottom again. I’m on my way back up.’ That’s his approach. And I mean, to last in this league and be a good player in this league and produce, like, you have to have that mindset and he’s got it.”
If Harris replicates his 2021 performance in 2023, he should be in line for another lucrative, multiyear contract next offseason.
Giants Unlikely To Address Leonard Williams’ Contract?
Giants defensive lineman Leonard Williams is attached to a $32.3MM cap figure for 2023, which is the third-highest mark in the league and which places Williams behind only Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Tannehill. Nonetheless, Big Blue seems prepared to carry that number on its ledger.
Per Dan Duggan of The Athletic (subscription required), the Giants have shown “no interest” in extending Williams, who will be eligible for free agency after the season, or restructuring his contract. Either maneuver, of course, would push more money onto future caps, so it stands to reason that GM Joe Schoen would be hesitant to go down that road for a player whose sack totals have declined sharply over the past two years and who missed significant game action due to injury for the first time in his career in 2022.
Duggan himself reported back in March that Schoen planned to sit down with Williams to discuss a reduction of the player’s cap charge. Based on Duggan’s most recent report, however, it seems as if those talks may have been designed to gauge Williams’ interest in a pay cut and may not have included much conversation about an extension or restructure. Williams suggested in January that he may be amenable to a reduction in pay, but his current stance on the matter is unclear.
Despite Williams’ declining surface-level production — 11.5 sacks in 2020, 6.5 in 2021, and 2.5 in 2022 — he continues to perform well in the eyes of the advanced metrics. Pro Football Focus assigned him a 74.2 overall grade last year, which placed him 19th out of 127 qualified interior linemen, and he was viewed as an above-average run defender and pass rusher. Plus, although Schoen did bolster his DL rotation with free agent acquisitions of A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches, the playoff-hopeful Giants are clearly better with Williams than without him, so a release seems unlikely.
Indeed, the Robinson and Nunez-Roches signings may even enhance Williams’ performance by reducing the number of snaps he has to play, which was a priority for Schoen when the offseason began. As Duggan notes, Schoen could theoretically wait until closer to the start of the regular season to demand that Williams agree to a reduction of his $18MM salary, because at that point there will likely be no team that would be willing or able to absorb a contract worth anything close to that figure. Of course, that would represent a hardnosed negotiation tactic that would be sure to anger Williams and his teammates, so Schoen is unlikely to go that route.
For now, it appears that Williams will get his $18MM salary and that the Giants will have to live with his massive cap charge, secure in the knowledge that even if Williams falters in 2023, they will be free from his contract in 2024, when they will only be on the hook for a ~$6MM cap hit stemming from a September restructure.
Bills DE Greg Rousseau Changes Agents
Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau is entering the all-important third season of his NFL career, and he has made a change in representation. Per Mike Garafolo of the NFL Network (Twitter link), Rousseau, who was previously represented by Drew Rosenhaus, has hired Ness Mugrabi and David Canter of GSE Worldwide.
Once a player accrues three years of service time, he becomes extension-eligible. So while Rousseau obviously needs to complete the 2023 season before he and his new agents can enter into negotiations with Buffalo brass, Mugrabi and Canter will at least have plenty of time to get familiar with their client and prepare for those discussions.
Rousseau, the No. 30 overall pick in the 2021 draft, took a step forward in his second professional campaign in 2022, despite missing time with an ankle injury. The Miami (FL) product posted eight sacks last season after recording four sacks in his rookie year, and he earned a stellar 80.9 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, which placed him 20th out of 119 qualified edge defenders. PFF thought especially highly of his pass rushing ability, which is the most critical trait for his future earning power.
That said, Rousseau accumulated four of his eight sacks in the first four games of the season, so the Bills will be looking for more consistent production if they are going to authorize a contract that will put him anywhere near the top tier of edge players, who are among the biggest earners in the NFL. Indeed, unless he forces the team’s hand with a Pro Bowl-worthy year, Buffalo may be content to play the waiting game, as Rousseau will still be on his rookie deal through 2024 and can be retained via the fifth-year option in 2025 (and via the franchise tag beyond that).
A review of GSE’s NFL clientele suggests that the agency does not represent many high-end pass rushers, with the Cowboys’ DeMarcus Lawrence a notable exception. No reason was given for Rousseau’s decision to part ways with Rosenhaus.
Giants Notes: Flott, McCloud, Cowden
Although they still have a need at wide receiver, we learned yesterday that the Giants are not presently expected to acquire free agent DeAndre Hopkins. With Hopkins eyeing a $15MM/year contract, and with New York boasting less than $4MM in cap room, much would have to change for the club’s interest in Hopkins to go beyond the exploratory stage.
Here are a few more Giants-related items:
- As Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post (subscription required) writes, the Giants believe that second-year pro Cor’Dale Flott — who was drafted as a slot corner — is better-suited to man the boundaries. That could mean that Darnay Holmes will reprise his role as the club’s primary slot defender, but the team could also gain much-needed cap space (about $2.5MM) by cutting Holmes. If Flott shows improvement as an inside option, or if UDFA Leonard Johnson should impress, Holmes may become a release/pay cut candidate.
- The Giants lost safety Julian Love to the Seahawks in free agency this offseason, and as Dunleavy writes in a separate piece, Big Blue is shifting 2022 waiver claim Nick McCloud to safety on a full-time basis. Per Dunleavy, McCloud will compete with free agent signee Bobby McCain and incumbents Jason Pinnock and Dane Belton for the starting safety job alongside Xavier McKinney. McCloud, like Love, offers positional versatility and started eight games at corner in 2022, so even if he works primarily at safety, DC Wink Martindale may still use him elsewhere in the defensive backfield.
- According to Dunleavy, first-round rookie Deonte Banks is now lining up as a starting boundary corner opposite Adoree’ Jackson after working with the second-team defense during the first week of OTAs.
- The Giants recently added Ryan Cowden to their front office, and per the team’s official website, Cowden’s title will be executive advisor to the general manager. Cowden, who actually interviewed for New York’s GM job last year — a job that ultimately went to Joe Schoen — ended the 2022 campaign as the Titans’ interim GM, but Tennessee elected to hire Ran Carthon for the permanent gig. Cowden and Schoen worked together in the Panthers’ front office from 2000-07, so Schoen is adding a familiar and experienced sounding board to his personnel department.
- Last week, we heard that the Giants and franchise-tagged running back Saquon Barkley are no closer to coming to terms on a long-term contract than they have ever been. It appears that guaranteed money is the biggest sticking point, though it is unclear what the Giants have offered in that regard, nor the degree to which those offers fall short of what Barkley might be seeking.