HEADLINES

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Chiefs

March 2nd, 2015 at 9:42am CST by Sam Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Alex Smith, QB: $15,600,000
  2. Dwayne Bowe, WR: $14,000,000
  3. Tamba Hali, OLB: $11,964,706
  4. Eric Berry, S: $8,357,700
  5. Jamaal Charles, RB: $7,970,835
  6. Sean Smith, CB: $7,750,000
  7. Eric Fisher, T: $6,051,954
  8. Mike DeVito, DL: $5,400,000
  9. Derrick Johnson, LB: $5,250,000
  10. Chase Daniel, QB: $4,800,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 18 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

After riding significant upgrades at the head coach and quarterback positions one of the most notable turnaround campaigns in NFL history, the Chiefs took a slight step back in 2014. The franchise that hasn’t made consecutive playoff appearances since the 1995 season saw key defensive injuries/illnesses and historically unproductive wide receiver play submarine its effort to return to the postseason. Although none of Kansas City’s wideouts scored a touchdown, making the Chiefs the first such team to accomplish that feat in 50 years, the Chiefs were in position to make the playoffs as late as the third quarter of their Week 17 win against the Chargers. Ultimately, the Chiefs winning nine games — including home triumphs over both Super Bowl participants — with their anemic WR corps, a spotty offensive line and the unavailability of Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito (both lost for the season in Week 1) and Eric Berry can be considered a success in the right light.

Largely behind the work of former two-time All-Pro Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs ranked 12th in offensive DVOA. Running behiDwayne Bowend an offensive line that saw just one player, free agent center Rodney Hudson, receive a positive grade from Pro Football Focus, Charles continued his pursuit of the all-time yards-per-carry mark. While not flirting with the 6.4 yards he averaged in 2010, Charles gained 5.0 per tote for the second straight year. But the elusive runner only received 206 carries, which were his fewest since becoming a full-time starter in 2010. That figure’s not surprising considering Andy Reid‘s penchant for short passes but one that probably needs to rise as the 28-year-old Charles’ prime winds down. Without a downfield complement, Smith helped unearth a much-needed contributor in Travis Kelce. Fresh off microfracture surgery, the second-year tight end enjoyed a breakout slate that helped the offense immensely. But the Chiefs’ offensive grit in snaring wins despite glaring issues can’t be something they count on; reinforcements are desperately needed to push Kansas City back into contention.

2014 continued a superstar ascent from outside linebacker Justin Houston, who ripped off a 22-sack season and booked himself either a sizable one-year renewal — which the Chiefs did Monday to delay his free agency — or an eventual megadeal that extends his stay in the Midwest for the rest of the decade. Apart from Houston, the Chiefs’ defense couldn’t counter the losses of three quality starters and slunk to 19th in defensive DVOA — 10 spots down from their 2013 mark. Josh Mauga and Allen Bailey both finished with negative Pro Football Focus grades as understudies-turned-starters, with Mauga doing an especially poor Johnson impression, charting as the league’s seventh-worst inside linebacker. Although Tamba Hali, a nine-year Chiefs edge-rusher, was still a strong player last year, he was clearly the complement to Houston and could be on his way out after the Chiefs used a first-round pick to grab Dee Ford to bolster arguably their strongest position. Hali’s cap situation ($11.9MM number with just $2.9MM in dead money, according to OverTheCap, if released) makes his position in Kansas City less certain than the less-reliable Bowe ($14MM number but $9MM in dead money). But the argument can be made that releasing both KC bastions (combined 17 years of Chiefs service) and using the savings to add younger, more cost-effective players at receiver and on the offensive front is the best move rather than continuing to have these performers clog the cap.

Key free agents:

A third-round pick from Georgia during the Scott Pioli regime, Houston fell in the draft due to drug-related concerns but turned in one of the best seasons in the 55-year history of the franchise in surpassing Derrick Thomas‘ team standard of 20 sacks set in 1990. The Chiefs’ predicament now is similar to the one they faced during Thomas’ heyday with two top-tier pass-rushers due high prices. The Carl Peterson-managed Chiefs opted to do what GM John Dorsey‘s Chiefs likely will: keep the A-side rusher. Peterson allowed Neil Smith to depart as a free agent in 1997, breaking up the most notorious pass-rush tandem in team history. The Houston-Hali duo isn’t quite on that level since it’s only had three full seasons together, but the overall talent is similar. Hali accrued seasons of 14 1/2 and 12 1/2 sacks in 2010 and 2011, respectively, before becoming a full-time tandem with Houston — the Thomas in this scenario. He will take priority over Hali, who is 31. Hali also never accumulated three straight seasons with 10+ sacks as Houston’s done in his three years as a full-time starter.

To keep Houston long-term, though, the Chiefs will have to pay him more than any outside linebacker. Clay Matthews‘ $13MM-per-year deal is the standard right now, and Hali’s $11.5MM is second in the league, according to OverTheCap. Houston and Von Miller are likely to raise that ceiling as 26-year-old pass-rushers.

Houston’s franchise tag will cost Kansas City about $13.1MM this year. There will be more players axed in the near future to make this work, and the chances Hudson stays in KC don’t make financial sense. Like Houston, Hudson came from the 2011 draft, but the second-round center took a bit longer to blossom. After sustaining a broken leg just three games into his second season, Hudson bounced back just as the Chiefs did and was a mid-level center in 2013. But last season, Hudson shined by ranking as PFF’s third-best snapper (subscription required) as an above-average run- and pass-blocker despite the injuries and ineptitude flanking him. But as the best available center, Hudson will see his price tag reside outside of the Chiefs’ payable range — likely in the $6MM-$8MM per-year strata. This will be a swift blow to an already-deficient offensive line.

The Chiefs’ No. 3 free agent is probably Ron Parker, who showcased versatility in playing nearly three quarters of the season at free safety. That may lead him to an adequate payday elsewhere. Cut eight times by three different teams, Parker spent two seasons as a nomadic corner and his third as a backup in Kansas City. Parker began his fourth season as a starting corner after beating out Marcus Cooper in training camp but became a key utility man once Berry went down with an ankle injury two months before receiving a diagnosis of Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After making 18 career tackles — all in 2013 — Parker notched 84 as a full-timer. Even though PFF didn’t think too highly of his run-defense skills (subscription required), Parker’s ability to vacillate between roles and be a productive cover man will help drive his price up. Like Hudson, Parker will probably find another team willing to pay more.

A veteran who started for four straight years on zone- and man-based fronts with the Broncos, Ryan Harris stepped in after being relegated to backup duty the past two seasons. He was probably the Chiefs’ second-best lineman despite being thrust into the lineup when third-year starter Jeff Allen joined the season-ending injury brigade in Week 1. Entering his age-30 season, Harris could be seen as a second-tier option for teams in need of a right tackle — a position Harris has played almost exclusively in his eight-year career. The Chiefs may opt to bring him back if his price tag is low enough.

Positions of need:

Reid managed to steer the Eagles to three straight NFC championship games with James Thrash serving as the de facto No. 1 receiver. The early-2000s Eagles proved that a No. 1 wideout isn’t required for sustained success; starters Thrash and Todd Pinkston combined for just three TDs in 2003. That sort of balance showed some in the Chiefs’ passing game last season with the usage of several wideouts with none standing out much in a west coast offense. But the Chiefs rode this workmanlike formula beyond its limits. With an already-cautious passer having no standout threat to beat defenses deep, the offense’s margin for error was slim, and that lack of diversity showed down the stretch. The first team since the 1964 Giants not to have a receiver score serves as an ignominious attachment that will likely stay with the franchise for a while, considering the era adjustments (just two receivers accrued 1,000+ yards in 1964 compared to 23 last season). And it will result in an offseason infusion, through free agency and the draft.

Without their second-round pick in each of Reid’s drafts due to the Smith trade, the Chiefs bypassed college wideout help in both. Last year in what turned out to be a reservoir of receiving help, the Chiefs selected Ford and cornerback Phillip Gaines in the first and third rounds, respectively. Out of necessity, they’ll have to take one this year. But the franchise hasn’t done well in tabbing receivers in the draft or free agency throughout the past three regimes. Since taking Bowe at No. 23 in 2007, the Chiefs selected six wideouts — two in the first two rounds — and just one managed to stick in their rotation: Dexter McCluster. This left a void alongside Bowe for years with a revolving door of sub-par No. 2 receivers signed as free agents, from Chris Chambers to Steve Breaston to Donnie Avery, creating the need for the Chiefs to overpay Bowe in 2013 to ensure some semblance of production outside. Now, they face a future that may not include any proven receivers with a tight cap.

The Jeremy Maclin-to-KC link makes sense due to familiarity, but not much financially. With Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant off the market via franchise tag, Maclin and Randall Cobb, should the Eagles and Packers not tag them, will battle for top billing. The Chiefs do not have the resources to go after him and are not typically big spenders or a sought-after destination. Players like Cecil Shorts, Eddie Royal, or even Kenny Britt make more sense, Royal in particular with his flashes as a catch-and-run threat. Shorts with a quarterback upgrade would help, but should either Cobb or Maclin go off the market via tag or long-term deal, Britt’s price tag may exceed buy-low territory. But much like the offensive line losing Hudson, imagining this current corps sans-Bowe is ugly, with undrafted free agent Albert Wilson as the next-best guy. While Amari Cooper, Kevin White and Devante Parker are probably gone by the top KC picks at No. 18, Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong, Michigan’s Devin Funchess or Dorial Green-Beckham, who would be a risky boom-or-bust pick after his Missouri exit, will likely be available.

With Allen returning and Fisher showing scant promise as a former No. 1 overall selection, the Chiefs’ primary focus up front will be on the interior, where they started one of the worst guard pairings in the league. Zach Fulton struggled as a rookie but should have a chance to compete at right guard again, however, free agent Mike McGlynn will not be back at his left guard post. PFF takes no pleasure in watching McGlynn work. The 29-year-old, who manned left guard after signing a one-year deal in Kansas City in August due to Donald Stephenson‘s suspension, graded as the site’s worst guard for the second time in three years (subscription required). Fisher’s improvement upon switching from right to left tackle wasn’t anything substantial, and this will mark a pivotal season for the scrutinized protector. While not overly talented, Allen at least gives the Chiefs versatility in how they approach the offseason with experience at guard (his first two seasons) and tackle (last year pre-injury).

The Chiefs could take LSU tackle La’el Collins and slide Allen back to guard to maximize the value of their No. 18 pick should this be their preferred option instead of receiver. Inside, Brian De La Puente, who’s played at both center and guard, would be a much cheaper option after serving as a backup with the Bears last year. If the Chiefs view this as a must-upgrade area that is too critical to count on a second-day draft pick to fix, Clint Boling would be a reasonable target at guard. Although getting 2012 draftees Allen and Stephenson back full-time will buoy this operation, Kansas City will address the line through both of the primary player-procurement avenues this offseason.

Berry’s unfortunate diagnosis keeps the secondary in flux. The former first-round pick has one year remaining on the massive rookie contract he signed in the last year of the old CBA, but his career may be over. A landing on the non-football injury list this year could save the Chiefs $5.5MM, according to CBSSports.com’s Joel Corry, and would go over better than simply releasing the popular safety. Complement Husain Abdullah played well in spots in his first season as a starter, and he’ll be counted on to provide more substance with Berry’s future in doubt. Parker’s departure would mean a void here, and considering the Chiefs’ bigger issues up front and out wide, they’re in no position to splurge on a safety. Undrafted free agents Daniel Sorensen and Kelcie McCray are the in-house options, an area from which Abdullah emerged last offseason. The Chiefs need a few of these stories next season since they’ll be unable to plug all of these holes from outside the organization. On his third team in three seasons, McCray was the second-best special-teamer in the NFL last season, per PFF.

DeVito may join Hali and Bowe on the open market as the Chiefs attempt to fix their biggest issues. Despite a strong debut campaign in Kansas City in 2013, DeVito tore his Achilles in Week 1 and is entering his age-31 season. Kansas City can save $4MM by cutting the veteran, and he’s reportedly comfortable with betting on himself elsewhere as opposed to slashing his salary. After spending a first-round pick on Poe and signing Bailey to a $25MM extension last year, the Chiefs could turn to under-the-radar free agent signee Vance Walker to fill DeVito’s spot. A former defensive tackle, Walker showed promise as the season waned as a 3-4 end. Of the Chiefs’ top eight salaries, only four players — Alex Smith, Charles, Sean Smith and Fisher — are locks to return.

Extension Candidates:

One of the Chiefs’ non-issue spots comes thanks to Pioli’s final first-round pick, Poe — the leader in defensive tackle snaps the past two years. Poe finished with a career-high six sacks last season and booked a second straight Pro Bowl trip. The agile 346-pounder has morphed into one of the better 3-4 noses in the game, and as a former first-rounder, Poe’s fifth-year option must be picked up to keep him off the free agent market in 2016. The Chiefs have until May 3 to do so. It would be wise to exercise this with Poe’s strength/agility combination, which resulted in the Conference USA product’s selection at No. 11 overall in 2012, not found in many at his position. Should the Chiefs pick up this option, Poe would earn a 2016 salary that averages the wages of the third- to 25th-highest-paid DTs — approximately $5.7MM based on the current contract values at the position. That figure more than doubles Poe’s $2.8MM 2015 salary, one that didn’t need to be factored into this unique mathematical equation.

Poe’s issue is more pressing due to the deadline residing two months from now, but Sean Smith emerged from the doghouse last season to become the top defensive back on the league’s second-best pass defense. Cited for DUI last summer, Smith worked behind Parker and Cooper at corner during training camp. But the 2013 free agent acquisition shook off that issue and enjoyed his finest season, finishing as PFF’s fifth-best corner. The analytics site also graded the rangy corner as the Chiefs’ second-best defender behind Houston. Smith signed a reasonable three-year deal that gives him $5.5MM per season, but he will receive a third contract before he’s 30. The Chiefs do not have another No. 1 corner option at present, as Cooper regressed and Gaines doesn’t have enough of a sample size yet. They do have a lot of prior commitments, but nothing significant beyond this year in the secondary. KC has more than $69MM (near the league’s middle) of 2016 cap space with players Hali, Berry and Johnson off the books. Since Smith played at a level above where he’s been during most of his career, the Chiefs probably need to see if he can come close to replicating his standout slate before determining an offer value.

Overall outlook:

Alex Smith proved in 2011 he can take a team to the precipice, but he needs plenty of help. Reid’s proven he can extract above-average play from a quarterback once labeled a bust. However, the Chiefs do not have the ancillary parts to complete this equation. The black hole at wideout cannot exist if the Chiefs want Smith to take them back to the playoffs, and the offensive front needs help to go along with improvements from thus-far-underwhelming holdovers. The coaching staff’s helped guide this team to back-to-back explosive starts and infused some stability into what was a fluid, tense situation. But more talent will be required to keep the Chiefs in contention.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Lions Won’t Franchise Ndamukong Suh

March 2nd, 2015 at 8:40am CST by Luke Adams

With today’s deadline for franchise tags looming, the reporter for the Lions’ official site, Tim Twentyman, tweets that Detroit won’t be using its tag on star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. That means that, unless Suh and the Lions reach a long-term agreement within the next eight days, he’ll hit the open market when the free agent period begins next Tuesday.Ndamukong Suh

Suh’s case was the most interesting one to watch as today’s deadline for franchise and transition tags approached. As a consensus top-five free agent, Suh would normally be right there alongside Justin Houston, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant as someone expecting to be tagged today. However, because Suh is coming off a season in which his cap number was $22MM+, his franchise salary for 2015 projected to be nearly $26.9MM, about twice as much as the tag for those other players.

As I pointed out back in December when I took a closer look for the Lions’ options with Suh, his $22.4MM cap hit in 2014 was the league’s highest, so a 20% raise on top of that looked somewhat unpalatable for the Lions, even with the cap on the rise.

General manager Martin Mayhew and the Lions have insisted throughout the process that they’re optimistic about the likelihood of Suh returning to Detroit for the 2015 season and beyond. However, with the 28-year-old now just eight days from reaching free agency, and no franchise tag in play, it seems likely that Suh and agent Jimmy Sexton will test the market. Suh said back in December that he intended to let Sexton choose his next time, suggesting that the highest bidder may win out.

Regardless of whether or not Suh returns to the Lions, Detroit will carry a $9.7MM cap hit for him in 2015. That’s the amount of dead money on the team’s books, the cost of restructuring his deal, which voided after this year’s Super Bowl.

If Suh does reach the open market, bidding for his services figures to be competitive, considering plenty of teams have the cap room necessary to make a monster offer, and there isn’t a team in the NFL that couldn’t use his presence in the middle of the defensive line. In 2014, Suh graded as the league’s third-best defensive tackle, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), excelling both as a pass rusher (57 quarterback pressures) and against the run.

By all accounts, Suh will be looking to become the highest-paid defensive player in football, exceeding the six-year, $100MM extension J.J. Watt signed with the Texans last year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 NFL Free Agent Market By Position

March 2nd, 2015 at 8:27am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with this year’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ve been taking a closer look at the free agent market for each position over the last few weeks.

Since we started by examining 2015’s free agent quarterbacks in mid-February, the list of free agents has changed a little. Teams have cut players, adding intriguing new names like running back Reggie Bush, wide receiver Brian Hartline, guard Justin Blalock, and defensive lineman Darnell Dockett to the open market. Some players, like quarterback Josh McCown and defensive lineman Ricky Jean-Francois, were cut and have since signed new contracts since we examined the markets for their respective positions.

Still, for the most part, with franchise and transition tags not due until tomorrow, and free agency still more than a week away for players with expiring contracts, the lists below reflect this year’s market. For each position, we broken down players into unrestricted and restricted free agents, identifying the top-tier UFAs at each spot.

Here’s the full list of our breakdowns of the 2015 free agent market by position:

Offense:

Defense:

Special teams:

Franchise, Transition Tags Due Monday

March 2nd, 2015 at 7:46am CST by Luke Adams

NFL teams have until 3:00pm central time today to assign the franchise or transition tag to pending free agents, assuring that those players won’t reach the open market next week as unrestricted free agents. Using an exclusive franchise tag on a player ensures that he can’t negotiate with any other suitors, while opting for the non-exclusive franchise tag or the transition tag limits the ability of that player to sign elsewhere, essentially making him a restricted free agent.

Our glossary entry on the subject goes into greater detail on how franchise and transition tags work, but for now, we’re primarily focused on today’s deadline, and determining which players will be tagged by their respective teams. So far, we’ve heard that the following teams are reportedly prepared to use the tag:

  • Broncos: As expected, the Broncos will use their non-exclusive franchise tag on wideout Demaryius Thomas in advance of today’s deadline, assuming the two sides don’t unexpectedly reach a long-term deal at the last minute.
  • Cowboys: Executive VP Stephen Jones informed Dez Bryant‘s camp over the weekend that Dallas intends to use its franchise tag on the star receiver today.
  • Giants: Multiple reports since the franchise tag period opened last month have indicated that New York expects to franchise defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul if no long-term deal has been reached. The non-exclusive tag is expected to be used.

Thomas, Bryant, and Pierre-Paul were three players are identified as very viable candidates to be tagged when I looked into the issue last month. Here are a few more to keep an eye on today as the 3:00pm deadline nears:

While those aren’t the only players who could be tagged this afternoon, the other candidates – including Pernell McPhee, Jason Worilds, and a handful of others – are probably long shots.

NFC Notes: Bucs, Peterson, FAs

March 1st, 2015 at 10:28pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Buccaneers‘ path from 2-14 back to respectability may not be that far away, writes ESPN’s Mike Sando in an insider piece (subscription required). Citing the likely arrival of Jameis Winston and the potential upgrade from Mike Glennon/Josh McCown at sports’ premier position along with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter potentially being the best coordinator hire in the league, the Bucs’ re-emergence may not be that far away. One anonymous source is certain Winston is a better player than Marcus Mariota, once thought as the pick here.

“[Mariota] is very similar to Colin Kaepernick but probably has a little better arm because Kaep is so low with his release all the time,” a veteran NFL offensive coach told Sando. “[Mariota] has more arm angles but always throws it flat. Winston will throw it perfectly with enough arc and zip to get it up and down before the safety arrives. He has a real natural feel. He is the guy who can pick up any ball and play any sport and beat you.”

In other matters …

  • Vikings GM Rick Spielman offered praise for Adrian Peterson despite the trouble that could mark his exit from Minnesota, the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Sid Hartman reported. The soon-to-be 30-year-old runner recently returned to the commissioner’s exempt list after this week’s ruling to overturn his suspension.”Everybody talks about the 30-year-old back, but he didn’t have any hits on his body last year and he is different,” Spielman said of the 2012 MVP. “Just very unique from a physical stature standpoint and just he has unique traits that you don’t see very often come through the NFL. I suspect Adrian is going to have a great year next year.”
  • NFC West free agent departures could include Mike Iupati, Frank Gore, Dan Williams and Byron Maxwell, and USA Today’s Nate Davis examines each team’s scenario. Among the takeaways, the 49ers allowing both Iupati and Michael Crabtree to leave are advised, as is the Cardinals finding a way to keep improving nose tackle Dan Williams.
  • Dallas Morning News columnist Rick Gosselin charts running backs’ career swoons — as well as the long-term deals that gave the Cowboys cap trouble in recent years — around age 29 to illustrate why the Cowboys need to separate from DeMarco Murray despite his monstrous contract-year campaign. Murray will be 27 next season and is the top running back on the market.

Extra Points: Jackson, Raiders, NFL Rosters

March 1st, 2015 at 8:35pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Earlier today, we learned that the Buccaneers would keep receiver Vincent Jackson on their 2015 roster without asking him to accept a pay cut or a contract restructure. After speaking to an executive with another NFL team, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reports that those around the league believe Tampa’s decision could lead to a “market reset” for receivers. In essence, players like Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, or Percy Harvin, all of whom could be asked to accept a pay reduction in the near future, could refuse, citing Jackson as an example. The 32-year-old Jackson had a down season in 2014, but he’ll still earn $9.7MM in base salary next year.

Elsewhere around the league …

  • The league is considering expanding roster sizes from 53 to 55 players, a source informed Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio. Fifty-three-man rosters (45 active players on game days) have been the standard in the NFL since 1993, when rosters ballooned from 47 to 53 in the first year of modern free agency. Although this will mean a bit more money to allocate to players, 10 NFL teams are below the salary floor of 89 percent that must be used from the 2013-16 seasons and haven’t had to spend as much on rookies in recent years. Practice squads went in this direction last year, expanding from eight to 10 players.
  • Speaking of that salary floor, some of this decade’s doormats will use that initiative to splurge on top free agents, ESPN’s John Clayton writes in his mailbag. The Jaguars and Raiders have over $120MM of salary cap space between them, and some of that cash needs to be spent this season to fall in line with the CBA’s four-year floor, which both teams are well under at 80 percent spending (Jaguars) and 82 percent (Raiders). Dallas and Washington also appear on the list of off-the-pace spenders. That comes not via the thriftiness of Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder, but from those owners’ free spending — and subsequent cap penalties — in the uncapped 2010.
  • The Jets are also in that insufficient-spending bracket and are in strong cap position ($51MM+ over) with only free agent starter, David Harris. Explaining why the Jets should retain the longtime starting linebacker while allowing exits of Michael Vick, Dawan Landry and their other top free agents, the New York Daily News’ Seth Walder takes a look at Gang Green’s offseason approach.

Sam Robinson contributed to this report

 

 

NFC Links: Lynch, Eagles, Packers

March 1st, 2015 at 8:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Marshawn Lynch offered fans a rare glimpse into his thought process, and it contradicts his post-Super Bowl assessment.

The Seahawks running back decided to use a Turkish television station, although CSNNE’s Phil Perry breaks down the interview, to express his stance on not receiving a goal-line carry to potentially lift Seattle to a second straight championship.

“To be honest with you, I would be lying if I didn’t tell you that I was expecting the ball,” Lynch told the Turkish station. “Yes, I was expecting the ball. But in life, these things happen. Like I told a reporter after the game, it’s a team sport.”

This surprising insight comes exactly a month after Lynch told ESPN’s Jim Trotter he wasn’t dismayed by not getting a carry on a play that instead resulted in Malcolm Butler‘s game-sealing interception. Currently in Turkey, Lynch also gave weight to the notion, albeit in a roundabout manner, that Pete Carroll didn’t want him to win the MVP award.

“I mean, you know . . . I think it was more of a . . . how do I say this? When you look at me, and you let me run that ball in . . . I am the face of the nation. You know, MVP of the Super Bowl . . . that’s pretty much the face of the nation at that point of time,” Lynch said.

Lynch remains under contract with the Seahawks for one more season, although the mercurial runner has yet to accepted a reported extension offer, which clouds his future.

In other news …

AFC Notes: Fins, Broncos, FA Targets, Ravens

March 1st, 2015 at 6:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Always among the biggest players in free agency, the Dolphins will look to fill several holes when the new league year begins next week. Corner, defensive tackle, and linebacker are among the positions that could use upgrades in South Beach, and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald offers several names that could be of interest to the Fins. Per Jackson, the Dolphins have internally discussed both Kareem Jackson and Brandon Flowers at corner, and the club also wants to re-sign Jimmy Wilson.

Along the defensive line, Miami is interested in Tom Johnson, Corey Peters, and Terrance Knighton, the latter of whom, as Jackson adds, will be the most expensive. Kenrick Ellis is viewed as a “backup option,” while Haloti Ngata will be on the Dolphins’ radar if he’s released by the Ravens. At linebacker, Jackson has previously reported that Miami is intrigued by David Harris, Mason Foster, and Dan Skuta.

Here’s more from the AFC:

  • Like the Dolphins, the Broncos are expected to be heavily involved in free agency, as they have been for the duration of GM John Elway’s reign. According to Mike Klis of the Denver Post, the Broncos will target a variety of positions next week, with offensive line, safety, tight end, and defensive end among them. Center Rodney Hudson, edge defender Pernell McPhee, and and tight end Charles Clay all figure to spark Denver’s interest, per Klis, who adds that center is the one position where the Broncos will surely add a high-profile free agent.
  • Ravens cornerback Victor Hampton was arrested for DWI last night, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Hampton was signed to a futures deal in January, and given Baltimore’s low-tolerance for off-the-field incidents at the moment, Aaron Wilson of the Sun (via Twitter) doesn’t see Hampton ever setting foot on a field for the Ravens.
  • The Raiders haven’t officially released safety Tyvon Branch, leading Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap to believe (Twitter link) that Branch will be designated a post-June 1 cut. Such releases can’t be formalized until the new league year begins next week.
  • In a full-length piece, Fitzgerald takes a look at the Colts’ cap situation as they head into free agency. Check out PFR’s Connor Byrne’s Indianapolis outlook here.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Cardinals

March 1st, 2015 at 5:22pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Patrick Peterson, CB: $14,791,200
  2. Calais Campbell, DL: $14,750,000
  3. Carson Palmer, QB: $14,500,000
  4. Larry Fitzgerald, WR: $10,850,000
  5. Jared Veldheer, T: $8,500,000
  6. Daryl Washington, ILB: $6,500,000
  7. Jerraud Powers, CB: $5,350,000
  8. Lyle Sendlein, C: $4,275,000
  9. Jonathan Cooper, G: $3,967,909
  10. Drew Stanton, QB: $3,866,668

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 24 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

For the second straight season, Bruce Arians and the Cardinals were surprise contenders, but unlike the 2013 season, when Arizona won 10 games only to finish outside the playoff picture, the Cardinals managed 11 wins, earning a posLarry Fitzgeraldtseason berth via a wild card spot. Arians won Coach of the Year (for the second time in three years), and both he and general manager Steve Keim inked contract extensions that will keep the pair in in Phoenix through 2019.

Of course, Arizona didn’t win that aforementioned playoff game, losing to the Panthers largely due to the absence of a viable quarterback. Just two days after signing a three-year extension, Carson Palmer tore his ACL, leaving backup Drew Stanton to take over in the middle of Week 10. After Stanton then went down in Week 15, journeyman Ryan Lindley was forced to take over, and Arizona never recovered.

The Cardinals thrived on the other side of the ball, where despite numerous injuries and a yearlong suspension of linebacker Daryl Washington, the defense finished seventh in DVOA under coordinator Todd Bowles, who has since taken a head coaching position with the Jets.

Key Free Agents

Most of Arizona’s top free agents reside on defense, where Keim has made a habit of adding low-cost veterans to supplement a talented core. One such addition was cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who signed a one-year, $4MM pact with Arizona after being released by the Jets. The 30-year-old played more than 1,000 snaps in the desert in 2014, and he looks to be line for a multi-year deal. Keim indicated that the club would like to-resign Cromartie, but allowed that he’s likely to hit free agency. A reunion with Bowles and the Jets is certainly on the table, especially if New York loses out on Darrelle Revis.

At 27, Dan Williams will hit free agency at a younger age than Cromartie, and he’s coming off a better season, having finished No. 14 among 81 qualified defensive tackles per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Williams is part of a loaded interior defensive line class, which also boasts Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, and Nick Fairley, among others. But aside from Knighton, who’s spent his career in a 4-3 defense, and B.J. Raji, who seems likely to return to the Packers, Williams is the only true nose tackle available on the open market. He should find many offers once free agency begins, and it’s possible he’ll price himself out of Arizona’s range.

Tommy Kelly is seven years older than Williams, but his 2014 production showed no hint of an advanced age. After being released by the Patriots at cutdowns, Kelly signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals that netted him less than $1MM. The veteran defensive lineman ended up playing more than 700 snaps, and performed well. But given his age, he shouldn’t command too much of a market, meaning Arizona could have a chance to bring him back.

Two linebackers — Sam Acho and John Abraham — hit free agency at very different points in their respective careers. The 27-year-old Acho played nearly 500 snaps and held up well, especially against the run, and could be a nice find for a LB-needy club in free agency; the link between he and Bowles is obvious, but Acho would make sense for the Jets. Abraham, meanwhile, was placed on injured reserve in September after doctors told him to sit out a year following a concussion. He’ll be 37 in May, and it appears as though retirement is the best option for him given his head injuries.

On offense, the Cardinals have just one pending free agent — guard Paul Fanaika — who played more than 400 snaps. He was underwhelming in 2014, placing No. 71 among 78 guard qualifiers per PFF. The free agent guard class recently saw some newcomers, as Todd Herremans, Justin Blalock, and Charlie Johnson were all released in recent days, so Arizona can probably find an upgrade if they’d like. It’s probably time to give 2013 first-round pick Jonathan Cooper a chance to start, so Fanaika shouldn’t return regardless.

Tight end Rob Housler saw limited duty as the backup to John Carlson, and wasn’t overly effective when he did play. The Cardinals spent a second-rounder on Troy Niklas in 2014, so I’d expect them to bid farewell to Housler, especially given they’ve been linked to free agent James Casey.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Cardinals have already been among the most active teams in advance of the new league year, releasing both Darnell Dockett and Ted Ginn Jr., and agreeing to a new deal with Larry Fitzgerald that will keep the veteran receiver in Arizona for the next two years. Still, the club has only about $14.3MM in cap space, so further moves could be coming.

Center Lyle Sendlein was possibly the worst player on the Cardinals’ offense, as he finished the year with a -31.3 PFF grade. Soon to be 31, Sendlein is scheduled to count $4.275MM in 2015, the final year of his deal. Releasing Sendlein would save Arizona $3.15MM, and although the free agent center market isn’t strong, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team seek out an upgrade on the open market or via the draft.

Stanton could also be on the chopping block, as he’s due to count more than $3.8MM next season — Arizona would save $3.2MM by cutting him. But given the uncertainty regarding Palmer and his recovery, and the team’s utter lack of QB options elsewhere on the roster, Stanton will probably be safe.

Carlson, entering the final season of a two-year contract, was especially ineffective in 2014, struggling in nearly every aspect of the game — he was PFF’s third-worst TE, and his run-blocking was particularly sub-par. The Cardinals could clear nearly his entire cap figure by releasing him, and given their cap situation, having another $1.6MM to work with could be appetizing.

Positions Of Need

Without question, the Cardinals are a team set up to win now. With a 36-year-old quarterback, and an aging receiver locked in for two seasons, Arizona has a short window to remain a contender, so free agency decisions will need to focus on the short-term. Keim & Co. have done a wonderful job with under-the-radar signings in the past, and with less than $15MM to work with, the club will have to hope it can do the same again.

Offensive line should be the key area of concern heading into the new league year. Arizona added left tackle Jared Veldheer on a five-year deal last offseason, and he was certainly a stabilizing presence on the blind side. However, he was the only effective player along the Cards’ front five, as every other position was filled by a below-average lineman. If Sendlein isn’t retained, center could a priority, but as mentioned, there aren’t a ton of options at the position. Instead, the Cardinals could focus on guard — one spot could be handed to Cooper, with the other being filled by a free agent. The likes of Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin are too expensive, but someone like Blalock could be a nice addition on a short-term deal.

At running back, Andre Ellington is a talented receiving option, but he might not be cut out to be a featured back. Luckily, RB is a position flush with free agent possibilities. If the Cardinals can’t land a big name like DeMarco Murray or (if he’s released/traded) Adrian Peterson, they can look at some lower-tier options, instead. Ryan Mathews would make a solid pairing with Ellington, although both share injury concerns. Mark Ingram could make sense for Arizona, or the club could take a chance on Stevan Ridley on a one-year, “prove-it” deal. In the draft, the Cardinals could look at either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon in the first round, or wait until later rounds to find a capable back.

If Cromartie leaves via free agency, the Cardinals could also have a hole to fill at CB. If the club wants to add another veteran to team with Patrick Peterson, someone like Chris Culliver or Brandon Flowers could be an option (although the latter might be a tad too expensive). Arizona could choose to invest in a younger player such as Davon House or Buster Skrine, but I’d guess that they’ll take the same approach they did with Cromartie, and wait for a veteran to fall into their lap. That could be Flowers if his market fails to develop, but 32-year-old Tramon Williams seems like the ideal target for the win-now Cardinals.

That strategy — waiting out the market — is how I expect Arizona to approach free agency as whole. The club has a history of stretching a dollar, especially on defense, and though Bowles is no longer around to develop talent, the Cardinals simply don’t have the cap space to target top-tier free agents. Adding complementary players to fill out an already strong core seems like the best avenue for Arizona.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Cardinals already made a move to lower Fitzgerald’s 2015 cap hit, and they could do the same with other players in the hopes of clearing out cap space. Palmer, for example, has a $9.5MM roster bonus due in March which could be converted into a signing bonus, lowering the QB’s cap charge. Calais Campbell and Veldheer could be candidates for a similar restructuring.

Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Michael Floyd is a candidate to have his fifth-year option picked up. The 25-year-old is coming off a down year in which he caught just 47 passes for 841 yards, but he finished with over 1,000 yards in 2013. He’s always shown flashes of talent, and given that Fitzgerald won’t be around for the long haul, I’d expect the Cardinals to exercise the option.

Washington’s contract status is unclear — some of his contract guarantees probably will void due to his suspension, but it’s hard to speculate what the Cardinals might do with him given that we don’t know the specifics of his deal. Speaking at the combine, Arians said he doesn’t “even think about” Washington. We’ll probably see some sort of resolution with Washington in the near future.

Overall Outlook

The Cardinals could be viewed as a litmus test used to separate optimists from pessimists. The glass half-full perspective: Arizona has won 21 games during the past two years, has a solid head coach and front office in place, and has a record of succeeding in player acquisition. Glass half-empty? The Cardinals are counting on an aging quarterback coming off a second torn ACL, have limited cap space, reside in a tough division, and lost perhaps their best tactician (Bowles) to another job. The 2015 offseason will go long way in determining how that pendulum swings.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Cornerbacks

March 1st, 2015 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with this year’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ve been taking a closer look at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to cornerbacks. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Maxwell is widely considered to be the top option on the cornerback market, and looks like a good bet to land the biggest contract of the group this month. However, suitors should approach with some caution when considering the Seattle corner, despite the fact that he played a key role for the league’s best secondary. It’s worth noting that the Seahawks locked up all the other starting defensive backs to extensions, but seem willing to let Maxwell walk. Additionally, while Pro Football Focus grades aren’t the be-all, end-all for player evaluation, Maxwell earned just a -0.2 mark in 2014 (subscription required). Besides Tillman, who missed the season with a triceps injury, only Skrine’s PFF grade was lower than that, among this group.

Of those players who graded above Maxwell in 2014, Culliver and Jackson are a couple worth watching. Both corners are entering their age-27 seasons, and ranked in PFF’s top 15 at the position in ’14. Quarterbacks completed just 50.7% of their passes when throwing into Culliver’s coverage, and Jackson limited opposing signal-callers to a passer rating of 74.2 — for comparison’s sake, players like Geno Smith and Brian Hoyer had better overall marks.

Teams targeting cornerbacks in free agency will have to strongly consider how those players will fit in their systems. The 5’9″ Flowers struggled mightily in 2013 while playing for a Chiefs defense that required him to match up in press-man coverage with bigger, more physical receivers, but had a nice bounce-back season in 2014 playing a different style of defense in San Diego.

There are also a couple instances in this group where multiple corners from one team are eligible for free agency, and the Packers and 49ers will have to decide which of their guys they want to retain. Having already invested heavily in Sam Shields, Green Bay seems unlikely to bring back both House and Williams, and the same can be said for the 49ers, who may not have the flexibility to re-sign Culliver and Cox.

Other unrestricted options:

There’s certainly a drop-off from the first tier to most of these players, but for a team looking for some value in a depth signing, there are a few options worth considering.

When Thurmond made the move from the Seahawks to the Giants a year ago, he looked poised to take a larger role, but a torn pectoral prematurely ended his season. He’ll come at a discount this season, and could be a solid No. 3 or 4 corner. Jimmy Wilson took on a greater role in Miami last season, starting 13 games and playing both cornerback and safety. Although he struggled a little at corner, his versatility is appealing.

The results weren’t always pretty, but Fletcher, Newman, Wright, and Tarell Brown all logged more than 800 defensive snaps for their respective clubs in 2014, and with the exception of Brown’s Raiders, all those teams finished above .500. That doesn’t mean they should necessarily be relied upon as starters again, but if they start out in a reduced role and are forced to take on more snaps, at least they have the experience.

Restricted FAs:

Moore is the standout name in this group, and the only player who saw action in more than half of his team’s defensive snaps. The Cowboys obviously have a few more noteworthy free-agents-to-be to deal with, but I don’t expect them to overlook Moore. He’s the best – and perhaps the only – candidate in this group to receive a one-year RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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