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Poll: Who Will Win The NFC East?

November 28th, 2018 at 7:35pm CST by Dallas Robinson

From a divisional perspective, the NFL playoff race isn’t all that exciting in 2018. While there is certainly intrigue regarding the No. 6 seed in the AFC, and the NFC wild card race still needs to shake out, there is only one divisional race that is truly up for grabs. The NFC East is still wide open at the moment, with three clubs still realistically in the hunt to take the division crown.

Let’s take a closer look at each contending team in the NFC East, along with their odds of winning the division via the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight.com, and Football Outsiders:

Dallas Cowboys

  • NYT: 52%
  • 538: 60%
  • FO: 49.4%

Two weeks ago, I asked PFR readers which team that wasn’t at first place at the time still had a shot of winning its division. The Cowboys had roughly a 10% chance of taking the NFC East, and only nine percent of PFR readers believed Dallas was the most likely non-first place club to end up as division champions. Oh, how things have changed. The Cowboys have won two consecutive games since (bringing their current win streak to three), first defeating the Falcons before winning a critical matchup over the Redskins on Thanksgiving. Dallas has topped 130 yards rushing in each of its last three contests, while Dak Prescott has remained interception-free during the same period.

Washington Redskins

  • NYT: 31%
  • 538: 39%
  • FO: 29.9%

The Redskins looked to be in the NFC East driver’s seat as recently as two weeks ago, but they’ve since lost two straight games and their starting quarterback. Alex Smith was certainly limited as a passer, but Colt McCoy is perhaps even more restricted under center. Additionally, the interior of Washington’s offensive line has been absolutely decimated, which could present even more problems for the 6’2″ McCoy. The Redskins will face the easiest remaining schedule of the three NFC East contenders (indeed, the third-easiest remaining slate in the league, per FO), but they’ll go up against the Eagles in two tough matchups, the first of which comes this Monday night.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • NYT: 16%
  • 538: 24%
  • FO: 20.5%

Back in August, PFR readers deemed the Eagles as the least likeliest 2017 division winner to miss the postseason in 2018. But if the season ended today, they’d be one of only two 2017 division champions (along with the Jaguars) to not make the playoffs this year. Philadelphia’s fate certainly isn’t sealed — they’ll get to play Washington twice more, and face a pivotal Week 14 game against Dallas. But the Eagles’ other two contests are against the Rams and Texans, two clubs who can certainly take advantage of Philadelphia’s secondary woes. The Eagles can likely only afford one more loss over the remainder of the season.

So what do you think? Which one of these teams is going to win the NFC East crown? Vote below, and leave your additional thoughts in the comments section.

Who will win the NFC East?
Dallas Cowboys 54.36% (661 votes)
Philadelphia Eagles 31.09% (378 votes)
Washington Redskins 14.56% (177 votes)
Total Votes: 1,216

5 Key Stories: 11/18/18 – 11/25/18

November 25th, 2018 at 9:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

Latest arrest ends Reuben Foster‘s 49ers tenure: The 49ers cut the cord on Foster after his third arrest of 2018. Foster was arrested for first-degree domestic violence battery Saturday night in south Florida. The alleged victim is Foster’s ex-girlfriend, who admitted to making false allegations that led to the linebacker’s arrest earlier this year. Foster avoided a conviction (but not an NFL suspension) on the previous charges — for marijuana possession and domestic violence — but GM John Lynch and ownership agreed on the decision to waive Foster. He will be on the waiver wire but would obviously be a controversial claim. The 2017 first-round pick has shown flashes of dominance and may well receive another chance. But for now, he saw his repeated off-field issues lead the 49ers to move on from him.

Texans owner Bob McNair dies: The Texans’ owner since their inception, McNair died on Friday at the age of 81. He was battling multiple types of cancer. He purchased an expansion team in 1999, three years before the Texans debuted, and oversaw three AFC South championships. McNair previously pursued ownership opportunities with the Dolphins and Rams but ended up bringing football back to Houston, doing so six years after the Oilers’ departure.

Jadeveon Clowney unlikely to hit market: The Texans are planning to apply their 2019 franchise tag to Clowney, who is in the final season of his five-year rookie contract. This will be an interesting process, since Clowney’s primary role is to rush quarterbacks. He’s listed as a defensive end/linebacker on Houston’s roster. Clowney’s camp will surely argue he should earn the defensive end tag (roughly $17MM), but he could also be tagged as a linebacker (roughly $15MM). The 2014 No. 1 overall pick would be in line for a $20MM-plus-AAV deal were he to hit the market.

Alex Smith recovery timeline illuminated: Suffering a Joe Theismann-esque injury in 2018 will give the current Redskins quarterback a chance at continuing his career, which Washington’s Super Bowl-winning signal-caller did not receive in 1985. Smith’s recovery process from his broken leg is expected to take between six and eight months. This would put training camp as a potential goal for the former No. 1 overall pick. The 34-year-old passer signed a four-year extension that runs through the 2022 season. Washington will go with Colt McCoy for the time being and signed Mark Sanchez to be the longtime backup’s new backup.

Browns’ coaching search heating up: Gregg Williams led the Browns to another victory on Sunday, but the team is expected to conduct a thorough search to replace Hue Jackson. Despite his rough stint in Denver and recent decision to spurn the Colts, Josh McDaniels has been connected to the Cleveland opening. The Cleveland-area native isn’t the only big name that may be involved. The Bruce Arians-Browns rumors continue to swirl, and the team is also expected to contact another Cleveland-area native: Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell. Meanwhile, Jackson’s futility in northeast Ohio may not dissuade the Bengals from naming him as Marvin Lewis‘ successor. That was once the rumored plan and may be again.

PFR Originals: 11/18/18 – 11/25/18

November 25th, 2018 at 3:25pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • As part of our ‘This Date In NFL Transactions History’ series, our Ben Levine took a look back at the suspension of Panthers defensive end Frank Alexander. Alexander was a very promising young player who saw his career cut extremely short by off-field troubles. The suspension he earned in 2015 was his third for violating the league’s substance abuse policy in just a couple of years in the NFL, and ultimately ended his career.
  • Around this time of year, people start paying more and more attention to potential draft order. Many teams are having abysmal seasons, and there’s a crowded field of teams all in position to pick very early in the draft. Our Zach Links asked readers in a poll which team was most likely to wind up with the first overall pick, and laid out the case for each side. The Raiders won the poll, garnering 49.2% of the votes with the Cardinals coming in second place.

 

This Date In NFL Transactions History: Frank Alexander

November 24th, 2018 at 10:50am CST by Ben Levine

On this day in 2015, Panthers defensive end Frank Alexander earned his third and final suspension from the NFL. Now, this shouldn’t be confused for a good thing. Rather, the punishment ultimately spelled the end of the player’s NFL career.

The Panthers used a fourth-round selection (No. 104) on the Oklahoma product during the 2012 draft, and it looked the organization may have found a diamond in the rough. The 6-foot-4, 270-pound lineman looked productive during his rookie campaign, compiling a modest 18 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and three passes defended in 16 games (three starts). While his counting stats took a step back in 2013, Alexander was just as productive on the field. He finished his sophomore season with 15 tackles, one sack, and two passes defended.

While Alexander was still backing up Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson heading into the 2014 season, he was expected to take on a bigger role on the defensive line. However, during the 2014 offseason, he was handed a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. He was slapped with another 10-game suspension before the aforementioned suspension ended, and he ended up appearing in a single game during the 2014 season. Presumably no one would have guessed that that’d end up being his final NFL regular season appearance.

Alexander tore his Achilles during the 2015 preseason, and after being waived/injured by the Panthers, he landed on the team’s injured reserve. Then, three years ago today, the defensive end was slapped with a one-year suspension for his third marijuana violation. He was actually one of three Panthers players to be handed a suspension in a two-game span, as defensive end Wes Horton and wide receiver Stephen Hill were punished the day before.

The Panthers didn’t necessarily miss Alexander during that season, as they ended up reaching the Super Bowl. As for Alexander, he was unable to garner much interest from NFL teams, and he ended up catching on with the BC Lions of Canadian Football League. The 28-year-old still hasn’t appeared in a game with his new organization, and it appears that his professional football career has likely come to an end.

Poll: Who Will Pick First In The 2019 NFL Draft?

November 21st, 2018 at 10:06am CST by Zachary Links

With just five weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. And, of course, the race to the bottom is gaining clarity as well.

With some help from the Football Outsiders’ DVOA On the Clock report, let’s run down some of the candidates for the top pick in the 2019 NFL Draft:

Arizona Cardinals (30.8% chance of No. 1 pick, 88.8% chance of top-five pick)

Sunday’s contest between the Cardinals and Raiders was not exactly must-watch television, but it did carry serious NFL Draft implications. By losing 23-21 to Jon Gruden‘s squad, the Cardinals became the most likely team to net the top pick in the spring. Ideally, the Cardinals would like to end the season on a higher note, but their fans aren’t necessarily of the same mind. The Cardinals’ final six games come against the Chargers, Packers, Lions, Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks, which is not exactly a cupcake schedule.

Oakland Raiders (28.6% chance of No. 1 pick, 90.6% chance of top-five pick)

Sunday’s win was a slight blow to the Raiders’ chances of picking first, but don’t tell that to Gruden & Co. Things haven’t gone as planned this year, so they’ll take positives wherever they can get them, even if it’s a W in a meaningless November game. The Raiders’ secondary stepped up in a big way against Arizona, but the pass rush is clearly missing the game-changing talent of Khalil Mack. From here on out, wins could be harder to come by with two games against the Chiefs (twice), Steelers, and Bengals.

San Francisco 49ers (27.6% chance of No. 1 pick, 83.9% chance of top-five pick)

The Niners’ Week 10 loss to the Giants was bad for morale, but it greatly increased their chances of hitting the podium first. After their bye, the Niners will return to face the Buccaneers, which is either a good or bad matchup depending on which way you want the team to go as a San Francisco fan. The 49ers’ offense has not looked the same without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and running back Jerick McKinnon, but they still have some firepower thanks to the emergence of tight end George Kittle. They’re effectively in a three-horse race for the top choice, but they might not be the smart pick in this poll thanks to a relatively easy schedule down the stretch.

New York Jets (4.7% chance of No. 1 pick, 50.5% chance of top-five pick)

This offseason will be one of tremendous change for the Jets. Head coach Todd Bowles seems likely to get the pink slip and GM Mike Maccagnan will have upwards of $100MM to spend on the open market. Will they also be armed with the No. 1 overall pick? The Jets have been putrid, for the most part, and their last outing against the Bills may have been the low point of the season. But with three wins at this stage of the season and a few winnable games ahead, the Jets are not the odds-on favorites to pick first.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.5% chance of No. 1 pick, 41.7% chance of top-five pick)

The Buccaneers have flip-flopped between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick throughout the year with mixed results. Unfortunately, their problems have extended beyond the quarterback position and injuries have not helped matters either. One important thing to note is that both Winston and head coach Dirk Koetter are playing for their respective futures in Tampa. There will be no tanking here.

Outside of those clubs, the Bills (1.8% chance of No. 1 pick, 31.5% chance of top-five pick), Giants (1.3% chance of No. 1 pick, 27.4% chance of top-five pick), and other cellar-dwellers are in the mix for the top selection.

So, who will it be? Click below to cast your vote (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section.

Who Will Pick First?
Raiders 49.01% (544 votes)
Cardinals 31.80% (353 votes)
49ers 8.47% (94 votes)
Jets 4.68% (52 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 3.33% (37 votes)
Buccaneers 2.70% (30 votes)
Total Votes: 1,110

PFR Originals: 11/11/18 – 11/18/18

November 18th, 2018 at 4:13pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Poll: Which Non-First Place Team Could Still Win Its Division?

November 15th, 2018 at 5:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With 10 weeks of NFL action in the books, the playoff picture is beginning to crystallize, but there are certainly still divisions up for grabs. There are eight non-first place teams which still have at least a 10% chance to win their respective division, per FiveThirtyEight.com. That cutoff will leave out clubs like the Packers (9%) and the Colts (7%) who still theoretically could take their division, but I think it’s a good glance at where things stand.

Let’s take an overview of each club:

Tennessee Titans (49% chance to win AFC South)

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Titans actually have better odds at taking the AFC South than the Texans, who currently sit in first place in the division. It’s not a huge difference between the two clubs, as Houston has a 43% chance to win the South, but the odds are slightly in Tennessee’s favor. The Titans have looked like an entirely different team over the past three weeks: after averaging only 262 yards of offense from Weeks 1-6, Tennessee has averaged 371 yards per game over their last three contests.

Minnesota Vikings (40% chance to win NFC North)

The Vikings still have to play the division-leading Bears twice, and one of those games will come this Sunday night in a contest that could certainly help decide the NFC North winner. Minnesota could be facing an uphill battle for the rest of the year, however. While the Vikings have faced the NFL’s third-easiest schedule to this point, they’ll go against the league’s fourth-most difficult slate from here on out (per Football Outsiders).

Philadelphia Eagles (26% chance to win NFC East)

Rewind to early August when I posed the following question to PFR readers: Which 2017 first place team is likeliest to miss the postseason in 2018? The Eagles received only 3.2% of the vote, last among the eight 2017 division winners, but they now have only a one-in-four chance of taking the NFC East. It’s easy to dismiss the Redskins’ low-octane offense, but their two-game lead on Philadelphia can’t be ignored. The two teams face each twice over the rest of the season, including a regular season finale that could decide the division.

Dallas Cowboys (20% chance to win NFC East)

Like the Eagles, the Cowboys are also two games behind the Redskins, but Dallas doesn’t have the advantage of playing Washington twice more this year (having already lost to the Redskins in Week 7). The Cowboys are the second-lowest variance team in terms of DVOA through 10 weeks, but they might need some spiked weeks — especially on the offensive side of the ball — if they want to overtake the Redskins and Eagles. The wisdom of sending a first-round pick to the Raiders in exchange for Amari Cooper can be debated, but he’s certainly performed well (11 receptions, 133 yards, one touchdown) through two games in Dallas.

Carolina Panthers (15% chance to win NFC South)

The Saints look like Super Bowl favorites after taking out the previously undefeated Rams in Week 9 before demolishing the Bengals in Week 10, and they very well may be. But the Panthers are only two games behind New Orleans in the standings and still get to face the Saints twice. All that adds up to only a 15% chance of winning the NFC South, but it’s not nothing, especially if Cam Newton continues to play at something close to his 2015 MVP level.

Los Angeles Chargers (13% chance to win AFC West)

Like the Panthers, the Chargers are second in their division to a team (the Chiefs) that’s gotten a ton of publicity…but the Chargers are also one of the of the NFL’s best teams. They rank third overall in DVOA, and they’re one of only two teams — along with the Bears — that boast a top-10 DVOA unit on both sides of the ball. Melvin Gordon is on pace to post 1,840 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns, and Philip Rivers is arguably posting the best season of his career, at least according to passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.

Cincinnati Bengals (11% chance to win AFC North)

The Bengals are reeling following a 51-14 loss to the Saints in Week 10, and they responded by making changes to their coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was fired, clearing the way for head coach Marvin Lewis to take over defensive play-calling, while old friend and ex-Browns head coach Hue Jackson is now in the building, as well. Whether those changes will help fix a defense that’s on pace to allow more yards than any in NFL history is anyone’s guess, but Cincinnati will also have to make hay without star wideout A.J. Green for at least one more game.

So what do you think? Will one of these teams claim their division? Or does a team not listed here — Packers? Colts? Ravens? — have a chance to take home a crown? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comment section! (Link for app users).

Which non-first place team could still win its division?
Minnesota Vikings 34.35% (495 votes)
Tennessee Titans 16.52% (238 votes)
Philadelphia Eagles 15.27% (220 votes)
Los Angeles Chargers 9.51% (137 votes)
Dallas Cowboys 9.30% (134 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 8.33% (120 votes)
Cincinnati Bengals 3.47% (50 votes)
Carolina Panthers 3.26% (47 votes)
Total Votes: 1,441

Poll: Who Will Browns Hire As Head Coach?

November 15th, 2018 at 11:06am CST by Zachary Links

After firing Hue Jackson, the Browns installed defensive coordinator Gregg Williams as the team’s interim head coach. This week, GM John Dorsey confirmed that Williams will be considered for the full-time post, but no matter how well the team does down the stretch, Dorsey will do his due diligence and speak with a number of candidates.

By the end of this season, the Browns will have gone through 16 straight seasons without a playoff berth and patience is obviously running thin in Cleveland. The club has a lot of confidence in Williams, who is regarded as one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, but there are a number of interesting candidates for the Browns to consider this offseason. Here’s a quick glance at the field and some speculative candidates for the post:

Lincoln Riley – The Oklahoma Sooners head coach was quickly connected to the Browns thanks to his previous partnership with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Riley is still only 35 years old and in his second year as a head coach, but NFL executives seem to love his energy and passion for the game. If the Browns want Riley, they may have to compete with the Cowboys and other clubs to get him.

Josh McDaniels – Would NFL teams consider the Patriots’ offensive coordinator just one year after he left the Colts at the altar? The short answer is yes. Despite all of the hand-wringing over Tom Brady‘s age and possible discord in the Pats’ locker room, McDaniels’ offense has been clicking all season, save for a few blips such as last week’s loss to the Titans. McDaniels flopped as a young 30-something head coach with the Broncos and his flip-flop turned off a lot of people, but the Browns have to be at least a bit curious about what he could bring to the table.

Matt Campbell – Like Riley, Campbell is another coach from the college ranks who has been connected to the Browns gig. The Iowa State head coach lacks NFL experience, but Albert Breer of SI.com hears that those connected to Dorsey are big fans of his. He’s also a relative youngster, but it may make sense for the second-youngest team in the NFL to employ a 30-something head coach. His strong Ohio ties may work in his favor as well.

Jim Schwartz – The Eagles’ defensive coordinator was a hot candidate for head coaching vacancies last year and it stands to reason that he’ll draw attention again this year. Schwartz’s run as the Lions’ head coach from 2009 to 2013 did not go as planned, but the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory revitalized his career and his desire to run his own show again is evident.

Dave Toub – Ex-head coaches, offensive coordinators, and defensive coordinators usually draw the most attention, but what about a special teams coordinator? Toub has been an NFL special teams coach since 2001 and this year, the Chiefs added the title of Assistant Head Coach to his nameplate. The Chiefs’ offensive unit is understandably getting all of the headlines, but it’s possible that Toub could build off of 2017’s interviews with the Broncos and Chargers to get into the mix with Cleveland.

Matt LaFleur – LaFleur made a name for himself in Atlanta when he helped guide Matt Ryan to an MVP campaign. After that, he hooked on with the Rams and got results out of Jared Goff. He didn’t call plays as Sean McVay‘s OC, but he took the wheel this year with the Titans. The Titans’ offense has looked pretty sharp with a healthy Marcus Mariota under center and LaFleur could be considered by the Browns and other clubs with HC openings.

David Shaw – Shaw, the head coach of the Stanford Cardinals, has been connected to several NFL head coaching jobs in recent years, though he did not interview for any in the last cycle. Shaw could conceivably draw consideration here, but it wouldn’t be the sexiest pick.

George Edwards – The Vikings had the top defense in the NFL last year under Edwards’ command, allowing just 275.9 yards per game and 15.8 points per contest. Edwards obviously deserves credit for the Vikings’ success, but he’s a DC that doesn’t call the plays, and that may hurt him in his candidacy with the Browns and other teams.

John DeFilippo – The Cardinals and Bears both considered DeFilippo after his tutelage of Carson Wentz and backup-turned-hero Nick Foles. When he fell short, he jumped ship to become the offensive coordinator of the Vikings.

Zac Taylor – The Rams are living up to their lofty expectations and Goff is looking better than ever, so the Rams’ quarterbacks coach could be a candidate for the Browns. Ditto for passing game coordinator Shane Waldron. Both coaches have popped up on the lists of gambling oddsmakers and they have the endorsement of McVay. “Man, I love these guys. I don’t want to lose them though,” McVay said recently. “They’re great coaches. But I think, the one thing that you look back on is just getting an opportunity to work with these guys. What great coaches they really are. They’re great communicators, great teachers, great leaders – that’s pretty consistent throughout our staff.”

Mike McCarthy – Could Dorsey’s head coaching search lead him to an old friend? The Packers are just 4-4-1 through nine games and McCarthy is believed to be on the hot seat. As Dorsey looks to change the culture in Cleveland, he could do a lot worse than to hire someone like McCarthy, who has taken the Packers to the playoffs on nine occasions, including a Super Bowl victory after the 2010 season.

Other – There will probably be a dozen more names connected to the Browns’ opening in the coming weeks, including a few coaches who will be laid off at the end of the season. If you have another candidate in mind, choose “Other” in the poll and let us know about your pick in the comment section.

Click below to cast your vote (link for app users):

Who Will Be The Browns' Next Head Coach?
Mike McCarthy 21.65% (643 votes)
Lincoln Riley 16.30% (484 votes)
Gregg Williams 15.79% (469 votes)
John DeFilippo 9.83% (292 votes)
Josh McDaniels 8.65% (257 votes)
Matt Campbell 6.33% (188 votes)
Other (specify choice in comments) 5.56% (165 votes)
Dave Toub 4.61% (137 votes)
Matt LaFleur 4.55% (135 votes)
Jim Schwartz 3.97% (118 votes)
David Shaw 1.28% (38 votes)
Zac Taylor 1.14% (34 votes)
George Edwards 0.24% (7 votes)
Shane Waldron 0.10% (3 votes)
Total Votes: 2,970

PFR Originals: 11/4/18 – 11/11/18

November 11th, 2018 at 3:08pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Poll: Will Le’Veon Bell Play This Season?

November 8th, 2018 at 2:20pm CST by Zachary Links

The Le’Veon Bell watch continues. For months, it was expected that the Steelers star running back would report for work by Nov. 13, the deadline for him to sign his franchise tag and play in 2018. However, Bell’s camp only recently confirmed that the running back does not have to show up for work by Tuesday in order to solidify his status as a free agent for next season, which means that Bell could theoretically stay home for the entire season. 

Originally, it was believed the Steelers would have the right to franchise tag Bell again for the same rate as this season if he did not ink his tender by the deadline on Tuesday. As it turns out, the price of the third tag would actually jump to the quarterback level, which would cost upwards of $25MM. The transition tag would technically be in play, but the Steelers are very unlikely to match any offer and such a move would saddle the team with an unnecessary cap hold.

All of this means that Bell can stay at home and preserve his health for free agency, though it would mean losing out on approximately $6MM in salary after already having forfeited $7.7M in game checks. Some say that Bell should get back on the field to prove his commitment to football and reassert himself as one of the game’s best running backs, but the 26-year-old firmly believes that he’ll find a strong market for his services no matter what.

Do you expect Bell to show up by Tuesday to face the Jaguars on Nov. 18? Or do you think Bell will extend his holdout through the end of the season? Click below to cast your vote (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section.

Will Le'Veon Bell Report By Tuesday?
No 73.63% (1,402 votes)
Yes 26.37% (502 votes)
Total Votes: 1,904
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