The Patriots’ three remaining games are expected to double as the final three contests of the Bill Belichick era in New England. Robert Kraft is believed to have made a decision to move on from the legendary HC. The process may soon become complicated.
With the Patriots holding Belichick’s rights through 2024, via the contract extension he agreed to earlier this year, they will hope to trade the 24-year HC and pick up an asset. Should the Pats travel down that road, the timeline could become an issue for both the team and Belichick.
As it stands now, however, Belichick is not seeking a divorce. The six-time Super Bowl-winning HC wants to stay in New England, according to the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin. Belichick-Kraft tension has simmered for years, dating back to the end of the Tom Brady era, and it would not exactly be surprising to see the parties’ working relationship end badly.
Belichick, 71, does not intend to resign, Volin adds, which will put some pressure on Kraft to find a trade partner. Kraft’s attempt at an amicable solution could drag well into the offseason, which would hamstring Belichick. If the process stalls, teams will move to other candidates during the frenzied winter hiring period. Each of the five teams seeking HCs this year had hires in place a day after Super Bowl LVII. The Patriots not finding a taker early also would limit their search for a Belichick replacement, though potential heir apparent Jerod Mayo‘s presence provides some protection for the team.
Going into the season, the Pats had hoped Belichick would return in 2024 before a potential baton pass to Mayo could take place. The Pats’ struggles look to have changed the plan, and a Belichick exit has been assumed for weeks. That said, the moving parts here could potentially force Kraft to fire Belichick in what would likely be labeled as a mutual parting. That would give the storied sideline presence free rein to pursue another job, and Volin reiterates the NFL’s second-winningest coach does not intend to retire after this season.
The Patriots have hit a wall with Belichick in place as their HC and de facto GM. While the historically successful defensive tactician has propped up the Patriots on that side of the ball, despite Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez‘s early-season injuries, New England’s offense is once again wallowing near the NFL’s basement. The team benched Mac Jones for 2022 fourth-rounder Bailey Zappe, whose camp struggles had led to him being waived in August. The Pats’ JuJu Smith-Schuster signing has not produced much of consequence, with the team outfitting Jones and Zappe with a bottom-tier skill-position corps. If Belichick is to stay, there would likely be changes to the team’s power structure — one that has lost key personnel bastions Nick Caserio and Dave Ziegler over the past three years. Would Kraft sign off on another Belichick-run offseason?
It will be interesting to see if Kraft would be amenable to Belichick staying and becoming the rare lame-duck coach, as his contract is believed to expire after the 2024 season. The deal, per Volin, is believed to be worth at least $25MM, which is at or near the top of the HC ranks. No trade coming to pass would leave the Pats on the hook for that payout, though offset language from a Belichick contract elsewhere would help New England here. Kraft effectively issued a playoff mandate this offseason. For Belichick to fall well short of that goal and be retained would surprise, especially given the rumors that have emerged this season.
While a first-rounder was floated as possible Belichick compensation, Volin classifies that as highly unlikely. In addition to Belichick not wanting his new team to send the Patriots a valuable asset for his services, he is coming off back-to-back unremarkable years and is much older than anyone who has ever been hired as a head coach throughout NFL history. The Buccaneers made Bruce Arians the oldest HC hired; he was 66 at the time. Belichick will turn 72 in April.
Belichick’s extensive past with personnel power might also interfere with a team’s plans; that arrangement, should he still want such control, may be an issue for the Chargers. The Commanders are also not expected to hand over full control to their next HC, Albert Breer of SI.com notes. Ron Rivera and Martin Mayhew are expected to be fired at season’s end, and while Washington has not employed a particularly successful coach since Joe Gibbs‘ second stint, new owner Josh Harris is not planning to appeal to Belichick by offering full personnel control.
The easiest way for the Patriots to close this chapter would be a mutual parting (firing) at season’s end. If no suitable trade offer for Belichick emerges, that may be where this ends. For now, the Kraft-Belichick era persists. How much longer will it last?
