5 Key Stories: 7/2/17 – 7/9/17
Veterans hope to continue careers. With the regular season fast approaching, three well-known players are vying to keep their NFL tenures active. Running backs DeAngelo Williams (link) and Rashad Jennings (link), plus cornerback Darrelle Revis, are all intent on playing in 2017 despite the fact that they all remain unsigned. At this point, it’s hard to imagine any of that trio earning much more than a minimum salary, but each of the three can still contribute in the right role.
Jeff Fisher not ready to give up coaching. Like the three veteran players listed above, Fisher also wants to keep his NFL career alive. Fisher, 59, is tied for the most losses in NFL coaching history with 165, and owns a lifetime winning percentage of .512. He’s never won a Super Bowl, and hasn’t guided a team to a postseason appearance in nearly a decade.
Sam Darnold could wait until 2019. Darnold, considered one of the top quarterback prospects in the country and a contender for the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, could potentially hold off declaring for the draft until 2019. The USC product tossed 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions a year ago, and teams eyeing a quarterback upgrade surely hope he’ll enter the league in 2018.
Chiefs GM search ongoing. While Kansas City has yet to find a new general manager after firing John Dorsey two weeks ago, incumbent co-director of player personnel Brett Veach is increasingly viewed as the favorite for the position. In fact, Veach could be promoted to GM before the start of training camp. While Veach has a working relationship with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Reid reportedly isn’t involved in KC’s GM hunt.
Dorial Green-Beckham clears waivers. After being waived by the Eagles last week, Green-Beckham cleared waivers, meaning every NFL team declined the chance to pick him up. Any club that claimed DGB would have been on the hook for a base salary under $1MM, but even a cheap contract wasn’t enough to entice teams. Green-Beckham is now a free agent and can sign at any time.
Star Lotulelei Likely To Play Out 2017
The Panthers are expected to allow defensive tackle Star Lotulelei to play out the 2017 season before deciding whether to negotiate a long-term extension, reprots Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer.
Lotulelei, 27, hasn’t been very effective over the past two campaigns, at least according to Pro Football Focus‘ grades — last year, Lotulelei ranked as just the No. 74 interior defender among 127 qualifiers. He’s been extremely durable, however, as he’s missed only four games during four NFL seasons (and played all 16 contests in 2016).
While Lotulelei is expected to return as a starter in 2017, his playing time could be reduced as 2016 first-round pick Vernon Butler sees more action. Lotulelei played on roughly two-thirds of Carolina’s defensive snaps last season, while Butler hovered around 20%. As Person details, Butler’s development will play a key role in how the Panthers move forward with Lotulelei.
A former first-round pick, Lotulelei is under contract in 2017 via the fifth-year option, which will pay him $6.757MM. The Panthers have already financially committed to fellow defensive tackle Kawann Short, who landed a five-year, $80.5MM extension in April, so it’s unclear if the club wants to commit even more cap space to the interior of its defensive line.
Rashad Jennings Expects To Land Contract
Free agent running back Rashad Jennings expects to sign with an NFL team before the start of the 2017 campaign, as he explains to Damien Sordelett of the News and Advocate.
“I’m in the best shape of my life,” Jennings said. “I’m always going to be in shape. That’s what I’m known for across the league. A team knows they’re going to have a player that’s going to be in the best shape of their life.
“Free agency right now, I’m going into year nine. I understand free agency and how it works. I feel like I’ll be landing with a team in the next two months, but right now I feel I’m in such a peaceful place in my life, though, from transitioning to another team, transitioning to other things outside of football, doing all the philanthropic work that I do.”
Released by the Giants in February, Jennings won Dancing With The Stars and is now touring with the production. While Jennings believes the show allowed him to become more balanced and have “more awareness in space,” per Sordelett, some within the NFL believe Jennings is being “blackballed” for participating in the dancing competition.
In his age-31 season, Jennings managed only 3.3 yards per carry on 181 rushes, but did add 35 receptions through the air. Indeed, his ability in the passing game figures to attract clubs, as he graded as one of the league’s best running back pass blockers, according to Pro Football Focus. PFR ranks Jennings as the second-best free agent running back available, just behind Chris Johnson.
PFR Originals: 7/2/17 – 7/9/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- With the 2017 regular season only two months away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered four teams this week:
- PFR published several polls last week, taking the temperature on several noteworthy NFL news items:
- The Browns brought in two quarterbacks — Brock Osweiler and DeShone Kizer — to compete with incumbent Cody Kessler this season, but it’s still unclear whom the team plans to start in Week 1. Sam Robinson asked PFR readers to voice their opinion, and most respondents pulled the lever for Osweiler.
- The Buccaneers haven’t earned a postseason berth since 2007, but after adding pieces such as DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard, and Chris Baker, could Tampa Bay make it back to the tournament this year? Zach Links asked, and you answered: 61% of voters think the Bucs will be in the 2017 playoffs.
- Though they may appear strong at the moment, a few 2016 playoff teams inevitably will fail to make it back to the postseason next season. Connor Byrne wanted to know which clubs are most likely to fall off in 2017, and PFR readers voted the Texans and Chiefs as the most probable teams to be at home come January.
- Darrelle Revis posted a down year in 2016, but he’s still one of the best cornerbacks available on the free agent market. Money is an obstacle, as Revis is still earning $6MM from the Jets, but Zach asked whether the future Hall of Fame defensive back will play in 2017.
- The 2017 campaign could present a final straw for several young players with a lot — in terms of team success, roster status, and financial gains — on the line. In our Make Or Break Year series, Connor look at Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, while Rory Parks tackled Dolphins signal-caller Ryan Tannehill.
- The Ravens released veteran Dennis Pitta and saw Darren Waller land a yearlong suspension, meaning Baltimore is now short on tight ends. With that in mind, I made the case that the Ravens should sign former Brown Gary Barnidge.
- While he may not be a household name, Bears defensive lineman Akiem Hicks posted excellent results a season ago, grading as Pro Football Focus’ No. 15 interior defender on 930 snaps. He’s entering a contract year, and Connor examined what a potential long-term extension between Hicks and Chicago could look like.
- Former Steelers and Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams reiterated his desire to continue his career last week, so I took a look at several destinations that could make sense for the veteran runner. A return to Pittsburgh could be ideal, but teams like the Lions and Chargers could also use another back.
- Only eight 2017 draft picks remained unsigned, and as Zach noted, seven of those choices are first-rounders (the only second-round pick without a contract is the Radiers’ Obi Melifonwu). One issue in negotiations could be offset language, which Zach posted a refresher on last week.
Seahawks CB DeShawn Shead Likely To Begin Season On PUP
Seahawks cornerback DeShawn Shead is likely to begin the 2017 campaign on the physically unable to perform list as he continues to recover from a torn ACL, according to Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
A 15-game starter a season ago, Shead played more than 1,000 defensive snaps and graded as the league’s No. 37 corner, per Pro Football Focus. Originally non-tendered as a restricted free agent, Shead re-signed with Seattle on a one-year, $1.5MM deal that includes $1MM guaranteed. If he does hit the PUP list, the 28-year-old Shead will be forced to miss the first six games of the year.
Although John Boyle of Seahawks.com suggests the club’s second cornerback job is “up for grabs,” Condotta indicates the most likely scenario involves Jeremy Lane taking over opposite Richard Sherman. In sub packages, Lane would probably slide into the slot, allowing veteran Neiko Thorpe or rookie Shaquill Griffin to play outside.
The news that Shead may not be ready for the season opener doesn’t come as a shock to the Seahawks, as head coach Pete Carroll said in March he’d be “really surprised” if Shead was able to suit up for Week 1.
Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals
In 2016, the Bengals missed the postseason for the first time in the Andy Dalton/A.J. Green era, posting a 6-9-1 record after earning playoff berths each season from 2011-15. Now, Cincinnati could be gunning for one more trip to the postseason under Marvin Lewis, who is entering the 2017 campaign as a lame duck head coach. Armed with a top-10 draft pick for the first time since 2011, the Bengals had offseason work to do on both sides of the ball.
Notable signings:
- Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: Five years, $52.5MM. $12MM guaranteed.
- Brandon LaFell, WR: Two years, $9MM. $3.3MM guaranteed.
- Kevin Minter, LB: One year, $4.25MM. $2.1MM guaranteed.
- Andre Smith, G: One year, $3.25MM. $1.55MM guaranteed.
- Wallace Gilberry, DE: One year, $1.4MM. $300K guaranteed.
- Cedric Peerman, RB: One year, $1.15MM. $100K guaranteed.
- Eric Winston, T: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
- Bene Benwikere, CB: One year, $690K.
Although the Bengals have drafted two more first-round cornerbacks since selecting Dre Kirkpatrick with the 17th overall pick in 2012, their lack of options in the secondary meant Cincinnati still needed to open up their checkbook to retain the Alabama product. Darqueze Dennard has barely played since entering the league in 2014, while William Jackson III missed his entire rookie campaign after tearing a pectoral. With a legal issue hanging over veteran Adam Jones, the Bengals couldn’t afford to let Kirkpatrick — the team’s most reliable option at corner — leave via free agency.
It’s easy to call the Kirkpatrick contract an overpay, as he’s never resembled a true No. 1 corner during his five-year NFL tenure. In 2016, Pro Football Focus graded Kirkpatrick as just the 52nd-best corner among 111 qualifiers, while he’s provided the 20th-most approximate value (Pro Football Reference’s catch-all metric) among cornerbacks since becoming a full-time starter in 2015. Despite that spotty record, Kirkpatrick’s new $10.5MM annual average ranks 11th among corners.
However, as with most Bengals contracts, the deal is more team-friendly than it initially appears. Kirkpatrick received only $12MM in full guarantees, which ranks 25th among cornerbacks, while his guarantee per year ($2.4MM) is only 24th among non-rookie corner accords. Conceivably, Cincinnati could remove itself from Kirkpatrick’s contract as soon as next spring — before he’s due a $3.25MM roster bonus — if he tanks during the 2017 campaign, and the dead money that would accelerate onto the Bengals’ cap following a release in either 2018 or 2019 isn’t ominous. Those scenarios are unlikely, of course, as most Cincinnati extendees play out their pacts.
While Kirkpatrick represented the majority of the Bengals’ free agent outlay, the club also made a value signing on defense with the addition of former Cardinals linebacker Kevin Minter. Only 26 years old, Minter played on at least 85% of Arizona’s defensive snaps in each of the past two seasons, and figures to slot in next to Vontaze Burfict in Cincinnati’s starting lineup. The Bengals made a smart contractual decision with Minter, using a $1.1MM workout bonus — which doesn’t count against the compensatory average per year formula — in order to lower his overall contract value. As Nick Korte of Over the Cap explained earlier this year (Twitter links), that strategy could end up bumping the Bengals’ projected seventh-round compensatory selection to a sixth-rounder, a marginal (but important) win.
On the other side of the ball, Andre Smith is back in a Bengals uniform after a brief one-season layover in Minnesota. Smith, whom Cincinnati originally drafted sixth overall in 2009, won’t be lining up at his usual right tackle position, however, as the Bengals signed him to play guard. We’ll discuss Cincinnati’s offensive line issues a bit later, but the decision to bring in Smith is a risky one on two fronts. First, he’s never played guard in his NFL career, and second, he only managed to appear in four games in 2016 before going down with injury. The Bengals don’t have much high-quality interior depth, so relying on Smith as a starter at an all-new position seems perilous.
Elsewhere on offense, Cincinnati continued to opt for familiarity, re-signing wide receiver Brandon LaFell, running back Cedric Peerman, and offensive tackle Eric Winston to play reserve roles. LaFell, notably, led Bengals pass-catchers in snaps a season ago, but despite the fact that he’ll earn $5MM in 2017, his playtime percentage will almost certainly decrease. First-round rookie John Ross figures to start opposite A.J. Green with Tyler Boyd in the slot, meaning LaFell will be a well-paid fourth receiver at best.
Andy Reid Not Involved In Chiefs GM Search
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has played “little to no role” in the club’s general manager interview process, according to Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com (Twitter link), who reports owner Clark Hunt and president Mark Donovan are leading Kansas City’s search.
As La Canfora notes, Reid’s lack of presence in the Chiefs’ GM quest further confirms previous reports that it was Hunt — not Reid — who was responsible for firing general manager John Dorsey. Indeed, sources told Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star last month that Dorsey’s ouster was prompted by Hunt’s concern about Dorsey’s lack of internal communication and casual management style.
“[Dorsey]’s not a big disciplinarian or big on chain of command,” one source said, “so people did what they wanted.”
Although Reid is not overly involved in the Chiefs’ GM search, and reportedly won’t take on a larger personnel role, that doesn’t mean his fingerprints aren’t on the club’s hunt. Kansas City co-director of player personnel Brett Veach and ESPN commentator Louis Riddick, considered the top candidates for the Chiefs vacancy, both have professional ties to Reid. Earlier today, La Canfora indicated Veach could be promoted LINK to general manager before the start of training camp.
Broncos C Matt Paradis Medically Cleared
After undergoing hip surgery last December, Broncos center Matt Paradis has been medically cleared and should be able to take part in training camp, reports Mike Klis of 9News.
“I never was that worried,’’ said Paradis. “I might have been worried about quality. And that’s something we’re still going to have to work out. But man, they’re feeling great. I guess I never realized how much pain I was in previously and now it’s like, “You mean I’m not supposed to be in pain all day, every day?’’
Paradis dealt with pain all season and didn’t practice at all over the last ten weeks of the year, according to Klis, but he still managed to start all 16 games for the second consecutive campaign while grading as the league’s No. 1 center, per Pro Football Focus. The 27-year-old Paradis earned a 90.7 overall mark, a score that included a league-high 90.6 run-blocking grade.
A former sixth-round pick, Paradis will earn $615K during the upcoming season before becoming a restricted free agent in 2018.
Raiders Sign Rookie DT Eddie Vanderdoes
The Raiders have signed third-round defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, the club announced today.
Vanderdoes, the 88th overall selection, spent four seasons with UCLA but only saw action in three of those campaigns, as he tore his ACL in the 2015 season opener and was granted a medical redshirt. In 2016, the 6’3″, 305-pound Vanderdoes appeared in 11 games, managing 27 total tackles and 1.5 sacks. Prior to the draft, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compared Vanderdoes to current Seahawks interior defender Ahtyba Rubin, while Pro Football Focus lauded Vanderdoes’ quick hands and low pad level.
The Raiders released veteran defensive tackle Dan Williams this offseason, so Vanderdoes will certainly have an opportunity to pick up some of Williams’ 366 defensive snaps. At present, Oakland is projected to start Jihad Ward and Justin Ellis at defensive tackle, with Darius Latham, Vanderdoes, and fellow rookie Treyvon Hester in reserve.
With Vanderdoes, only eight 2017 draft picks remain unsigned, and that list that includes two other Raiders: first-round cornerback Gareon Conley and second-round safety Obi Melifonwu.
Finding A Fit For RB DeAngelo Williams
Two years ago, at the age of 32, DeAngelo Williams started 10 games for the Steelers and produced 11 rushing touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry, and 40 receptions through the air while filling in for Le’Veon Bell, who had been suspended and subsequently injured. In 2016, sidelined for seven games by his own health questions, Williams managed only 3.5 yards per touch on 98 attempts.
Thus far, Williams hasn’t been linked directly linked to any clubs, but he made clear earlier today that he intends to play during the 2017 campaign. It’s possible that he’ll have to wait for an injury to occur before receiving a call, something to which Williams alluded to today. I recently ranked Williams as the third-best free agent back available, behind fellow veterans Chris Johnson and Rashad Jennings.
Williams said today there are four teams he won’t play for, but wouldn’t identify those clubs, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. With the hope that we’re not listing one of those squads, let’s take a look at six teams that could use Williams immediately:
Detroit Lions
Detroit’s 2016 rushing offense was, by almost any measure, putrid. On an NFL-low 350 rushing attempts, the Lions finished 27th in yards per carry, 25th in DVOA, and 31st in adjusted line yards, the latter a measure of a club’s offensive line strength. Detroit attempted to rectify its front five this offseason, swapping out Larry Warford and Riley Reiff for T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner, but the team’s crop of backs has essentially remained stagnant. Getting former second-round pick Ameer Abdullah back from a Lisfranc injury should help matters, and the Lions have praised reserve Dwayne Washington, but the club’s only free agent addition or draft choice in the backfield was former Viking Matt Asiata, who plodded to a 3.3 yards per carry average a season ago. Williams, then, could offer Detroit a bit more dynamic safety net behind its younger runners.
Los Angeles Chargers
Among the 19 running backs that managed at least 200 carries in 2016, Melvin Gordon finished 13th with only 3.93 yards per rush. So although he scored 10 touchdowns on the ground, it stands to reason the former first-round pick could use a breather from time to time. Kenneth Farrow, who served as Gordon’s primary backup last season, posted only 3.2 yards per carry on 60 attempts, while Branden Oliver (who hasn’t seen the field since October 2015), Andre Williams, and Kenjon Barner aren’t exactly an inspiring crop. With Danny Woodhead having left via free agency, the Chargers have a need for a back like Williams, who can succeed in the passing game.
Los Angeles Rams
Like Gordon, Todd Gurley struggled from a lack of team running back depth, as he finished 19th out of 19 on the list linked above with just 3.18 yards per attempt. The Rams offense was a disaster as a whole, ranking 32nd in both pass and rushing DVOA. Los Angeles has seemingly found a fix at left tackle, upgrading from Greg Robinson to Andrew Whitworth, and are now 18th in Pro Football Focus‘ offseason offensive line rankings. Still, when the “running back” with the most carries behind Gurley is Tavon Austin with 28, backups are an issue. The Rams already signed former Cowboy Lance Dunbar to handle third-down work, but Williams would offer a more prototypical skill-set as a reserve.
Miami Dolphins
Jay Ajayi was excellent during his second NFL season, rushing for more than 1,200 yards while ranking seventh in DYAR and finishing third in PFF’s running back grades. But there are certainly reasons to be concerned about Ajayi, and chief among them is the knee issues that led to his draft slide in 2015. Severe knee injuries scared off teams that year, and Ajayi has put a lot of work in during the past four seasons. Between Boise State and Miami, Ajayi has managed 249 carries in three of the past four seasons (including a whopping 347 attempts during his final collegiate campaign). Personally, I’m a fan of backup of Damien Williams, but his lack of production during his three-year NFL tenure may leave the Dolphins looking for an experienced reserve such as DeAngelo Williams.
New York Giants
The Giants regard second-year runner Paul Perkins as a three-down back, but they haven’t added much insurance in the event Perkins doesn’t perform (or gets injured) in 2016. Shaun Draughn and Orleans Darkwa haven’t done much in their limited NFL action, Shane Vereen has proven himself to be a passing game specialist, while fourth-round rookie Wayne Gallman was labeled an impatient runner and compared to journeyman Khiry Robinson in Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com predraft profile. Big Blue’s rushing attack ranked 26th in DVOA a season ago, and doesn’t figure to improve if Perkins doesn’t grow into a No. 1 role. Still, the Giants are the least likely club on this list to bring in Williams or any other veteran.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Williams was an excellent investment for the Steelers, as he provided stability in the club’s backfield (especially in 2015) while earning only $4MM over the life of a two-year contract. He could conceivably play a similar role for Pittsburgh in 2017, but the Steelers have added other factors behind Le’Veon Bell. In addition to signing free agent Knile Davis, Pittsburgh also spent a third-round choice on local product James Conner. Fitzgerald Toussaint is also in the discussion for backup carries after posting 4.1 yards per attempt in 58 touches last year. General manager Kevin Colbert said in March the Steelers weren’t yet closing the door on Williams, but that statement was made before Pittsburgh draft Conner. Williams himself said today he wasn’t ruling out a return to the Steelers.