5 Key Stories: 11/6/16 – 11/13/16
High price tag on Richardson. The Jets reportedly spoke with both the Cowboys and Broncos about the possibility of dealing pass rusher Sheldon Richardson before the trade deadline, but Gang Green was aiming to recoup expensive compensation. The cost for Richardson was apparently a first-round pick, and neither Dallas nor Denver was willing to acquiesce. Subsequent reports have indicated that Richardson, as well as fellow defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson, have been repeatedly late for meetings and walkthroughs. The Jets control Richardson through the 2017 season thanks to his fifth-year option.
Stars returning to the field. Both the Chiefs and the Patriots will get key players back on the field in the near future, as the clubs have activated linebacker Justin Houston and running back Dion Lewis from the PUP list, respectively. Though he’s returned to the 53-man roster, Houston didn’t play today against the Panthers (though he did not suffer a setback). It’s unclear whether Lewis will be active tonight when New England faces Seattle, but if he is, he’ll add another dimension to an offense that’s already among the league’s best.
No. 1 pick could become No. 1 QB. Although one report has indicated that Rams rookie Jared Goff won’t start for Los Angeles until the team is officially eliminated from playoff contention, Adam Schefter of ESPN.com today reported that Goff could become the club’s starting quarterback as soon as next week. The Rams are currently locked in a defensive struggle with the Jets, and starter Case Keenum hasn’t led Los Angeles on a touchdown-scoring drive yet today. If he takes the reigns next week, Goff would see his first NFL action against the Dolphins at home.
Suspensions hit contenders. Cowboys pass rusher Randy Gregory failed yet another drug test last week, and is now facing a possible one-year ban. Gregory was supposed to return later this season after serving two concurrent bans, but that now seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Saints safety Kenny Vaccaro is facing a four-game suspension for using Adderall, though Vaccaro has vowed to fight the discipline. New Orleans and Vaccaro are now awaiting the results of a second sample.
Chargers likely in San Diego through next year. Though an initiave to fund a new stadium in San Diego failed on election day, the Chargers are still probably staying in San Diego through the 2017 season, as the club will delay a decision to move to Los Angeles until 2018. Owner Dean Spanos confirmed as much, saying he’ll put the issue of relocating his team on the backburner until next year.
PFR Originals: 11/6/16 – 11/13/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- In the first installment of PFR’s 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings, we analyzed the best players who will hit the open market next spring. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the list, followed by Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones and Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The ranking will be updated regularly as 2017 free agency approaches.
- Prior to last week’s Broncos/Raiders matchup, I asked PFR readers to weigh in on which club would emerge with the AFC West title. Both Denver and Oakland still have a solid chance to take the crown, while Kansas City is also in the running. The Chargers, currently in fourth place in the division, still have an opportunity to earn a postseason berth, as well. The Raiders are the favorites, according to PFR readers, edging out the other teams with more than 51% of the vote.
- Week 10 offers an exciting slate of games, so I asked PFR readers which contest was the most important. Using Brian Burke of ESPN’s playoff probability leverage, I ranked the most critical games based on the chances that the result would affect playoff odds. Bengals/Giants (on Monday night) narrowly edged out Vikings/Redskins as the most crucial game.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
Extra Points: Cowboys, Jaguars, Jets, Packers
Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones yesterday called Tony Romo the “consummate team player,” indicating that the veteran quarterback would handle a demotion to No. 2 with grace. But does the possibility exist that Dallas could use both Romo and Dak Prescott, depending on game situation? That question was posed to Jones by Mike Florio on Pro Football Talk Live.
“We obviously feel good about what our team’s doing right now but at the same time when you got a great player like Tony, if you feel like he could infuse some energy and pull something out for you that maybe things aren’t going your way then certainly that’s a coaching decision that can be made by Jason [Garrett] and Scott [Linehan],” said Jones. “Right now, we’re focused on being positive and looking not past Pittsburgh at this point and we’ll just kinda take each day one day at a time.”
Here’s more from around the league as Week 10 looms:
- Heading into Sunday’s game with a 2-6 record, the Jaguars don’t appear to have a shot at the playoffs, but the club can still use the rest of 2016 to evaluate itself, as Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com writes. The primary goal for the remainder of the year should be to determine the root cause of quarterback Blake Bortles‘ struggles, opines DiRocco, but Jacksonville also needs to look at its offensive line. Specifically, the Jaguars must decide if they want to exercise left tackle Kelvin Beachum‘s option bonus, which would kick in four more years on his contract.
- While the Jets reportedly wanted a first-round pick in order to part with pass-rusher Sheldon Richardson at the trade deadline, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com (Twitter link) believes New York is more likely to acquire a second- or third-rounder for its mercurial defensive lineman. The Cowboys and Broncos both apparently checked in with Gang Green and inquired on Richardson, but neither club was able to pull off a deal.
- The Packers have relied on continuity in the front office, on the coaching staff, and at the quarterback position for years, but Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com examines what happens — and who takes the blame — when the team struggles. General manager Ted Thompson is famously silent, and doesn’t respond to media inquiries except during the summer when he’s obligated by league rules to do so. Thompson also avoids free agent additions, leaving head coach Mike McCarthy to figure out what to do when injuries strike.
Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 10?
The Week 10 slate of NFL games might be the best lineup of the entire season, as multiple contests feature contending clubs vying for postseason berths. With so much on the line, which matchup is the most important?
For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Patriots and Cowboys are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Browns, Jaguars, Bears, and others will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.
But for other clubs, Week 10 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:
- Cincinnati Bengals (18.1%) at New York Giants (24.9%), 43% total
- Minnesota Vikings (21%) at Washington Redskins (18.3%), 39.3% total
- Denver Broncos (16.4%) at New Orleans Saints (19.7%), 36.1% total
- Atlanta Falcons (12.3%) at Philadelphia Eagles (23.3%), 35.6% total
- Miami Dolphins (15.2%) at San Diego Chargers (18.3%), 33.5% total
- Green Bay Packers (19.5%) at Tennessee Titans (12%), 31.5% total
- Kansas City Chiefs (15.2%) at Carolina Panthers (9.3%), 24.5% total
Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. While Cowboys/Steelers and Seahawks/Patriots figure to be exciting contests, they won’t impact the playoff chances of at least one team involved. Similarly, Texans-Jaguars and 49ers-Cardinals only affect the odds for one club, and project to be one-sided games.
It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Falcons — who face a 12.3% PPL — lose to the Eagles on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 80% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Bengals, while facing a similar PPL to the Falcons (18.1%), will have less than a one-in-five chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Giants. If Cincinnati wins, that number rises to about 35%.
So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Bengals/Giants the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Broncos/Saints, mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!
Patriots Activate Dion Lewis From PUP List
SATURDAY, 3:16pm: Lewis now appears on New England’s 53-man roster, with ESPN.com’s Field Yates tweeting the team has activated its preferred passing-down back in advance of the Seahawks-Pats Sunday-night tilt.
THURSDAY, 8:37pm: The Patriots will activate running back Dion Lewis from the physically unable to perform list, tweets Jim McBride of the Boston Globe. While that move doesn’t necessarily mean that Lewis will be ready to go this weekend, Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald reports that Lewis is “on track” to play against the Seahawks on Sunday night.
[RELATED: New England Patriots Depth Chart]
Lewis, 26, will slot back into a New England rushing attack that ranks only 21st in DVOA despite LeGarrette Blount‘s thunderous activities on the ground. Blount leads the league with nine rushing touchdowns, but is only averaging 3.8 yards per attempt — as a team, the Patriots are 23rd in yards per carry. While James White has excelled as the club’s passing down back, New England hasn’t gotten much from the rest of its RB corps, a unit that includes special teams-first players such as D.J. Foster and Brandon Bolden.
Lewis will likely eat more into White’s role than Blount’s — in seven games last season, Lewis saw 50 targets from Tom Brady, and hauled in 36 of them for 388 yards and two touchdowns. On the ground, Lewis managed only 49 attempts, but averaged nearly five yards per carry. He’s signed through the 2017 campaign after agreeing to a multi-year extension last October.
On the mend from a torn ACL, Lewis was forced to miss at least the first six games of the season after landing on the PUP list. He’ll need to be added to the roster by 3pm CT Saturday in order to play the following day. The Patriots have already cleared a roster spot by waiving fellow RB Tyler Gaffney earlier today.
Latest On NFL’s Marijuana Policy
As of Tuesday’s elections, 28 states now allow some sort of medicinal marijuana use, but that doesn’t mean the NFL and the players’ union will come together on any near-term alterations to the league’s drug policy, according to Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com. However, the NFLPA will continue to convene a “pain management committee” that will evaluate the effects of marijuana on health.
Privately, at least three owners have stated support for medical marijuana, especially in contrast to other medication — such as painkillers — that are often abused, reports Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link). Officially, however, the NFL doesn’t sound ready to make any changes to its current stance.
“We continue to follow the advice of leading experts on treatment, pain management and other symptoms associated with concussions and other injuries,” league spokesman Brian McCarthy said. “However, medical experts have not recommended making a change or revisiting our collectively-bargained policy and approach related to marijuana, and our position on its use remains consistent with federal law and workplace policies across the country. If these advisers determine a change would be in the best interest of our players, we would discuss it.”
As Seifert notes, a recent ESPN survey found that nearly two-thirds of current NFL players believe that lessening the penalties associated with marijuana use — or perhaps, eliminating discipline for the drug altogether — could help reduce excessive painkiller usage.
Robert Griffin III To Have Shoulder Scan Soon
Browns quarterback Robert Griffin III will have his shoulder scanned “in the next couple of weeks,” reports Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com (Twitter link), who adds that the examination will determine if RG3 will be able to play again in 2016. Griffin hasn’t played since suffering the shoulder injury during Week 1.
[RELATED: Browns Want To Extend Pryor Or Collins Soon]
Cleveland placed Griffin on injured reserve eight weeks ago, so if healthy, he technically could have played against the Ravens tonight if the Browns had opted to designate him as their player to return from IR. Clearly, however, RG3 isn’t yet ready to return, although a recent report did indicate that he won’t have to undergo surgery on his ailing left shoulder. Cleveland has a few other candidates that could return from IR — namely defensive back Jordan Poyer and linebacker Nate Orchard — so the club would have to weigh the pros and cons of bringing Griffin back.
With the Browns winless and seemingly attempting to develop rookie quarterback Cody Kessler, there may not be much incentive to have Griffin return. RG3 is signed through the 2017 campaign at an affordable rate, so if Cleveland still believes he could be a part of their future efforts, getting him low-pressure snaps at the end of the year could be viable.
DeAngelo Williams Undergoes Knee Surgery
Steelers running back DeAngelo Williams underwent knee surgery today, according to Mark Kaboly of DKPittsburghSports.com. Williams, Pittsburgh’s backup to Le’Veon Bell, could miss anywhere from two weeks to a month while recovering, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com and Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links).
[RELATED: Bud Dupree To Return From IR]
Bell, clearly, will continue to carry the majority of the load for the Steelers, but new No. 2 back Fitzgerald Toussaint figures to assume many of Williams’ duties as the club’s reserve runner. And if Pittsburgh wants to promote a player from its practice squad, the team will have two interesting options. One is Daryl Richardson, the former Rams RB who spent the early portion of the season on the Steelers’ active roster. The other is Karlos Williams, the second-year back who recently signed on with Pittsburgh after a tumultuous offseason with the Bills.
Williams, 33, was highly effective during his two-games stint as the Steelers’ starter earlier this year, rushing for 237 yards and scoring twice while adding 10 receptions (and another touchdown) through the air. His contract with Pittsburgh is up after this year. If he misses a full month, Williams will be sidelined for the Steelers’ contests against the Cowboys, Colts, Browns, and Giants.
Chiefs Activate Justin Houston
Linebacker Justin Houston has been activated from the PUP list, as ESPN’s Field Yates tweets. However, Houston’s status for this Sunday’s game against the Panthers is still uncertain.
[POLL: Who Will Win The AFC West?]
“We’ll see how he does this week,” Reid said on Monday. “He’ll let me know on that, how he feels. He’s obviously been cleared to play, but there is more to it than that. You have to make sure that you’re right and you have opportunities to practice and get yourself back. We’re not in a hurry there. We just want to make sure he’s safe going out there and playing.”
Houston, who has missed the duration of the 2016 campaign while recovering from an ACL injury, was cleared to practice in mid-October. Under the rules of the physically unable to perform list, a player must be activated within three weeks of starting practice again, or else be kept on reserve PUP (essentially injured reserve) for the remainder of the year. Houston, therefore, will take up a roster spot regardless of whether he plays this weekend, and Kansas City already cleared a place by waiving cornerback Terrance Mitchell earlier today.
One of the league’s top pass rushers, Houston inked a six-year, $101MM extension with the Chiefs last summer, but was hampered by injuries in the first year of his new deal. After leading the NFL with 22 sacks in 2014, Houston still played very well in 2015, but totaled just 7.5 sacks in 11 games. The outside linebacker also showed some versatility by grabbing a pair of interceptions, including one for a touchdown.
Giants OL Justin Pugh To Miss Time
Giants coach Ben McAdoo admitted today that guard Justin Pugh will “miss a little time” with a knee sprain, according to Ralph Vacchiano of SNY (Twitter link), who adds that a source says Pugh could miss two-to-four weeks.
[RELATED: Giants Considering Extension For Justin Pugh]
New York’s offensive line has produced disparate results this season depending on the situation — while the unit ranks third in adjusted sack rate, the Giants’ front five places just 28th in adjusted line yards, Football Outsiders‘ run-blocking metric. Big Blue did inquire on potential reinforcements heading into last week’s trade deadline, going as far as to express interest in Browns left tackle Joe Thomas. Ultimately, though, the club stood pat and will likely look to internal options to replace Pugh at left guard for the time being.
Filling in for Pugh is no easy task, however, given that Pro Football Focus ranks him as the single best guard in the NFL thus far in 2016. Bobby Hart, who had been playing right tackle while Marshall Newhouse was sidelined, will slide to the interior to cover for Pugh’s absence. New York currently has three offensive lineman — Adam Gettis, Laurence Gibson, and Jon Halapio — on its practice squad, and one of that trio figures to get a call up in the near future.