5 Key NFL Stories: 11/25/18 – 12/2/18
Chiefs cut Kareem Hunt. Video released on Friday showed Hunt shoving and kicking a woman during a February incident, and led the NFL to place the second-year pro on the commissioner’s exempt list. Shortly after the league’s decision, Kansas City announced that it had waived Hunt. Both the club and the NFL claimed they’d not previously seen the video. The Chiefs are expecting a six-game suspension for Hunt, and it’s unclear if any team will claim him off waivers. He’s actually being investigated for two separate incidents: the episode referenced here, plus a separate matter in which he allegedly punched a man in the face in June.
Redskins shocking claim Reuben Foster. Foster was arrested last Sunday on domestic violence charges, and the 49ers — who’d been exhibiting a zero-tolerance policy with Foster given his previous arrests — immediately waived him. Given his history of off-field issues, Foster wasn’t a likely candidate to be claimed, but the Redskins did indeed bring in the 2017 first-rounder. Washington has dealt with serious backlash to its decision, but the club has argued Foster will never play for the Redskins if the allegations prove true. Like Hunt, Foster is now on the commissioner’s exempt list.
Jaguars change OC, QB. It’s difficult to believe the Jaguars were just a few plays away from the Super Bowl earlier this year. Last week, Jacksonville announced that it had fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, replacing him with quarterbacks coach Scott Milanovich. And the changes didn’t stop there, as the Jags also moved away from starting quarterback Blake Bortles, turning instead to backup Cody Kessler. Even with those alterations — plus the loss of Leonard Fournette (suspension) and Andrew Norwell (IR) — the Jaguars still defeated the Colts on Sunday
Andy Dalton done for the season. If the Bengals weren’t already toast after losing to the Browns in Week 12, their season essentially ended in the following days, when Cincinnati announced it was placing Dalton on injured reserve with a thumb injury. Dalton posted one of his best seasons in 2018, but injuries on both sides of the ball doomed the Bengals’ campaign. Cincinnati will move forward with Jeff Driskel at quarterback: against the Broncos on Sunday, Driskel completed 25-of-38 attempts for 236 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Broncos lose Chris Harris Jr. The Broncos are still in the hunt after defeating the Bengals in Week 13, but they’ll have to make their playoff push without their best cornerback. Harris suffered a fractured fibula on Sunday and is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. However, Harris believes he’ll be able to return if Denver slides into the postseason as the No. 6 seed.
NFL Practice Squad Updates: 12/2/18
Today’s practice squad updates:
Cleveland Browns
- Signed: OL Jake Eldrenkamp
Panthers TE Greg Olsen Done For Season
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is expected to miss the rest of the season after rupturing the plantar fascia on his right foot, according to David Newton of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
Olsen, 33, already missed three games earlier this season after suffering a fracture in his right foot. That foot has been a serious issue for Olsen over the past two seasons, as an injury to that extremity also cost him nine games in 2017. He came back incredibly quickly this year, but it’s unclear if that accelerated return contributed to Olsen re-injuring his foot today.
Olsen will finish the 2018 campaign having appeared in eight games, managing 26 receptions for 278 yards and four touchdowns during that time. While he’s been among the league’s best tight ends since joining the Panthers via trade in 2011, Olsen isn’t necessarily a lock to return next season, especially given his injuries. Carolina, which could be making changes to its decision-making structure, would save $3.4MM by making Olsen a post-June 1 cut in 2019.
The Panthers, now on the outside looking in as far as the playoff picture goes, will turn to Chris Manhertz and Ian Thomas at tight end for the rest of the season. If Olsen is placed on injured reserve, Carolina could promote Jason Vander Laan from its practice squad.
Broncos CB Chris Harris Jr. Suffers Fractured Fibula
Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. suffered a fractured fibula in today’s game against the Bengals, according to Mike Klis of 9News (Twitter link). Following the contest, Harris said he won’t require surgery and could return if Denver makes the playoffs, tweets Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic. 
The Broncos wouldn’t be in line for a postseason berth if the 2018 campaign ended today, but they are in the hunt. Per the New York Times, Denver has a 21% of making the playoffs after defeating Cincinnati today. But the task of getting into the tournament will become all the more difficult without Harris, who is far-and-away the Broncos’ best defensive back.
Harris, 29, has played nearly every defensive snap (98.3%) for the Broncos this season, lining up on the outside in Denver’s base defense and moving to the slot in nickel and dime packages. For his efforts, Pro Football Focus ranks Harris as the NFL’s fifth-best cornerback, behind only Stephon Gilmore, Kareem Jackson, Desmond King, and Byron Jones. Harris also ranks eighth league-wide in yards per pass allowed, per Football Outsiders’ charting data.
Harris was loosely mentioned in trade rumors earlier this year, although there was never any indication Denver was serious about moving him. Instead, it appeared other NFL clubs were simply curious as to whether Harris was available. Signed to an incredibly affordable contract, Harris’ $8.5MM annual salary ranks just 21st among cornerbacks. He’s signed through 2019, and will make a base salary of $7.8MM next year.
Given that they released veteran Adam Jones last month, the Broncos don’t have a ton of depth at cornerback. Tramaine Brock will be in line to start opposite Bradley Roby, while Isaac Yiadom and Brendan Langley could also see more time. Theoretically, Denver could express interest in re-signing Jones, although he displayed a steep drop in performance before being cut.
Rams Have Contacted Kliff Kingsbury
The Rams have reached out to former Kliff Kinsgbury to gauge his interest in joining Los Angeles as an offensive assistant/consultant for the remainder of the season, according to Peter Schrager of NFL.com (Twitter link). 
Kingsbury has already been generating interest from around the NFL, but it wasn’t clear if he’d attempt to latch on with a club before the 2018 campaign expired, or instead wait for next season. The Rams, admittedly, probably aren’t a long-term fit for Kingsbury. Head coach Sean McVay calls the offensive plays in Los Angeles and isn’t likely to relinquish those duties any time soon.
But Kingsbury could presumably assist in other capacities with the Rams, and he’s certainly respected around both the collegiate and pro game for his offensive ingenuity and creativity. While Los Angeles wouldn’t immediately start running Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense if he were to be hired, his presence on the team’s staff could only help the Rams over the course of the regular season and into the playoffs.
Kingsbury, 39, was fired after five-plus years of lackluster results at Texas Tech, during which he posted a 35-40 overall record. While he’s never coached in the NFL, he did play professionally with the Patriots, Jets, and Saints from 2003-05.
NFL Workout Updates: 12/2/18
Today’s workout updates, all courtesy of veteran NFL reporter Howard Balzer (on Twitter):
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
- G Will House
Seattle Seahawks
- FB Daniel Marx
PFR Originals: 11/25/18 – 12/2/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Last Wednesday, I asked PFR readers which team will emerge victorious in the NFC East. The Cowboys are viewed as the favorite both by statistical models and by our voters, and their position got even stronger following a surprising victory over the Saints on Thursday night. The Redskins and Eagles aren’t completely out of the divisional race, however, and they’ll face each other in a critical Monday night matchup.
- Using ESPN’s playoff probability leverage, I asked PFR readers which Week 13 game was the most important. ESPN’s metric pointed to Redskins/Eagles as Week 13’s most important contest, and our respondents agreed, although Chargers/Steelers finished in a very close second.
- Zach Links looked at the free agent case of Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers, who is projected to hit the open market next spring. Flowers be part of a stacked edge defender class that also includes Jadeveon Clowney, Frank Clark, Dee Ford and Demarcus Lawrence. New England head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t typically pay up front seven defenders, but the Pats could make an exception for Flowers.
- While the AFC playoffs are largely set aside from the No. 6 seed, there is still jockeying to be done at the top of standings. With that in mind, Sam Robinson asked PFR readers which club should be considered the favorite for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The Chiefs took the top spot with roughly 44% of the vote, while the Patriots came in second at 36%.
Minor NFL Transactions: 12/2/18
Today’s minor moves:
Arizona Cardinals
- Promoted from practice squad: LB Thurston Armbrister
Los Angeles Rams
- Waived: WR Nick Williams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Promoted from practice squad: WR Bobo Wilson
- Waived: RB Dare Ogunbowale
East Notes: Patriots, Eagles, Redskins, Fins
While the Patriots haven’t historically paid up for free agent defensive lineman, Trey Flowers could be a special case, as Jeff Howe of The Athletic tweets. For one, Flowers is highly respected within the New England locker room — Howe deems Flowers a “model human being” with zero off-field issues. Second, Flowers and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick share the same agent (Neil Conrich), which could theoretically help push negotiations along. Flowers, 25, is part of stacked 2019 free agent edge rusher class that also includes Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Frank Clark, and DeMarcus Lawrence. While he’s posted only 3.5 sacks, Flowers ranks sixth in the NFL with 31 quarterback pressures.
Here’s more from the NFL’s two East divisions:
- The Eagles were the lone NFL team to contact the Tampa Police Department for more details on linebacker Reuben Foster‘s recent domestic violence arrest, according to A.J. Perez of USA Today. Foster’s arrest — his third of the year — led to his immediate release from the 49ers. Most observers didn’t expect Foster to get claimed off waivers given his track record and the seriousness of his most recent episode, but the Redskins did place a claim for the troubled linebacker (and were the only club to do so). Washington has been slammed for taking on Foster, leading team executive Doug Williams to push against the backlash in an interview with Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post. “The high risk was the beat-up that we’re going to take from PR,” said Williams. “We understood that from a PR standpoint, and we’re taking it. The most important thing is, we’re hoping that things come out and it wasn’t the way that everything has been perceived. We don’t know that. We have to wait and see.”
- Dolphins vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum has been “raving” about Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, per Tony Pauline of DraftAnalyst.net (Twitter link). Clearly, it’s a bit early to be linking NFL teams to collegiate prospects, and Herbert may not even enter the 2019 draft. But Miami’s possible interest in Herbert only underscores the Dolphins as a potential destination for a first-round quarterback next season. As Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald indicated on Wednesday, incumbent starter Ryan Tannehill‘s 2019 fate with the Dolphins is up in the air, so Miami could certainly be in the market for a young quarterback next spring.
- In case you missed it, Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson would prefer not to play out the 2019 campaign under a restricted free agent tender and is instead pushing for a contract extension.
Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 13?
We’re just five weeks away from the 2018 NFL postseason, and Week 10 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?
For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams, Patriots, Saints, and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 1% playoff leverage). The Lions, Buccaneers, Giants, 49ers, Cardinals, Bills, Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.
But for other clubs, Week 10 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:
- Washington Redskins (38%) at Philadelphia Eagles (16%) = 54%
- Baltimore Ravens (32%) at Atlanta Falcons (4%) = 36%
- Indianapolis Colts (30%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1%) = 31%
- San Francisco 49ers (0%) at Seattle Seahawks (31%) = 31%
- Minnesota Vikings (26%) at New England Patriots (1%) = 27%
- Carolina Panthers (24%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1%) = 25%
- Denver Broncos (15%) at Cincinnati Bengals (5%) = 20%
- Los Angeles Chargers (7%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7%) = 14%
Week 13 is a strange week in terms of playoff leverage, as nearly every matchup with a combined leverage of at least 20% is extremely one-sided. In other words, a lot of the games this week are critical for one team involved, and nearly irrelevant for the other club. In fact, there are only three contests in which both teams face leverage of at least five percent: Redskins/Eagles, Broncos/Bengals, and Chargers/Steelers. In the latter case, neither Los Angeles nor Pittsburgh is in danger of missing the postseason, but their showdown could be important for playoff seeding.
It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Cowboys — who face a 23% PPL — lose to the Saints on Thursday, they’ll still have a greater than 55% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Eagles, while facing a similar PPL to the Cowboys (24%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Buccaneers. If Philadelphia wins, that number rises to about 35%.
So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Redskins/Eagles the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Broncos/Bengals mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section! (Link for app users).