Panthers Have Made Contract Offer To Brian Burns
The Panthers and edge rusher Brian Burns commenced extension talks last month. The two sides have reached one significant milestone in those discussions, as Carolina has submitted a contract offer to Burns, according to Darin Gantt of the team’s official website.
The details of that offer are presently unclear, so it is difficult to handicap the likelihood of an agreement coming together before the start of the regular season. Additionally, as Gantt observes, Burns may want to wait until the 49ers’ ongoing negotations with Nick Bosa, another standout pass rusher from the 2019 draft class, are completed before he puts pen to paper on his own contract. While Burns’ next deal will not be as lucrative as Bosa’s, the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, the aphorism “a rising tide lifts all boats” is applicable here.
Regardless of what happens with Bosa, Burns is expected to land a contract that places him among the top-five or top-six highest-paid edge defenders. In the current market, such a deal would include an average annual value upwards of $22MM and practical guarantees of more than $53MM, though it is possible that Burns will top those figures by a comfortable margin.
The Panthers may want to wrap their talks with Burns sooner rather than later in light of the ever-rising price tag for high-end pass rushers, but there is no real urgency from a club control persepctive. Burns is set to play out the 2023 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal — which will pay him just north of $16MM — and the team can hit him with the franchise tag next year if it so chooses. The value of the tag is projected to be in the $24MM-$25MM range, which is roughly what Burns’ AAV on an extension would be anyway.
Burns’ on-field performance has obviously set a high baseline for his second NFL contract. Though Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics suggest that his run defense could still use some work, teams place a higher value on pass rushing ability these days, and Burns has that in spades. He set a career-high with 12.5 sacks in 2022, and since he turned pro in 2019, he has generated 38 sacks, which is the 11th-highest total in the league over that four-year timeframe. He has also earned Pro Bowl acclaim in each of the last two seasons.
Another factor that will help him in negotiations is the fact that the Panthers rebuffed a trade proposal from the Rams prior to last year’s deadline that would have netted Carolina 2024 and 2025 first-round selections and a 2023 second-rounder in exchange for Burns. Obviously, that gives the Florida State alum some extra leverage, and it is certainly possible that the Panthers’ shift to a 3-4 front under new DC Ejiro Evero could improve his all-around performance, which would drive his value even higher.
Matt Corral Likely To Get Majority Of Panthers’ Preseason Snaps
Although new Panthers head coach Frank Reich has yet to officially declare Bryce Young — the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft — his team’s starting quarterback, there is every expectation that Young will be under center when Carolina takes the field against the Falcons in Week 1. The fact that Young began taking full first-team reps towards the end of OTAs only reinforces that belief.
Veteran Andy Dalton, who signed with the club in March, will presumably serve as Young’s backup. At this stage of his career, Dalton has nothing to gain by playing in the Panthers’ preseason slate, and the team has everything to lose by deploying Young in the preseason. That leaves 2022 third-rounder Matt Corral as the most likely candidate to see the bulk of Carolina’s preseason snaps, as Joseph Person of The Athletic writes (subscription required).
Corral, part of a much-maligned draft class of quarterbacks in 2022, may have already missed his best opportunity to show what he can do in meaningful NFL contests. Given the injuries and underwhelming play that plagued the Panthers’ QB depth chart in 2022, Corral almost certainly would have had the opportunity to take regular season snaps if not for a preseason Lisfranc injury that ended his rookie campaign before it started. Now, with his already limited window to become the Panthers’ franchise signal-caller having been closed by the selection of Young, Corral will want to generate as much good film as he can in the upcoming preseason.
There was already trade chatter surrounding Corral this offseason, though the cost to acquire him at this point would obviously be low in light of last year’s developments. Corral is also reportedly content to remain with the Panthers for the time being since Reich, a renowned QB mentor, is now the head coach. Still, the Ole Miss product may welcome a move to a team that offers him at least some semblance of upward mobility, and Carolina GM Scott Fitterer would be happy to recoup some value for his third-round investment. A strong preseason showing for Corral could therefore be beneficial for both player and team, so it stands to reason that he would get plenty of burn in August’s exhibition contests.
Corral suffered the above-referenced Lisfranc injury during the Panthers’ second preseason game in 2022. Over his two preseason appearances, he completed just 10 of 24 passes for 69 yards, though he earned second-team All-SEC honors during his final collegiate season in 2022, having thrown 20 touchdowns against five interceptions while adding another 11 TDs on the ground.
At present, Young, Dalton, and Corral are the only three quarterbacks on Carolina’s roster.
Rams Tried To Trade QB Matthew Stafford Before 2023 League Year
On the third day of the current league year, the Rams picked up Matthew Stafford‘s 2023 option bonus and his 2024 salary, a decision that guaranteed just under $60MM of the veteran quarterback’s contract. Prior to that happening, however, Los Angeles made a concerted effort to trade Stafford, as former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi said on a recent episode of The Pat McAfee Show (Twitter link).
Shortly before the league year opened, Rams GM Les Snead indicated that his club was committed to retaining Stafford. By that point, Snead might have already realized that he was not going to be able to find a trade partner and therefore decided that a public display of faith in the 35-year-old passer was appropriate. Alternatively, he may have been trying to drum up some eleventh-hour trade interest.
In any case, it is not surprising that there were no takers. After all, an acquiring team would have had to make the same financial commitment to Stafford that the Rams made just a few days after Snead’s comments, and Stafford’s 2022 campaign certainly did not warrant such an expenditure, to say nothing of the draft capital — however minimal — that Snead may have been seeking in a trade.
Los Angeles, of course, entered last season as the reigning Super Bowl champions, and while Stafford led the league in interceptions in the 2022 regular season, he also threw 41 touchdown passes and more than justified the trade that brought the longtime Lion to southern California. But the Rams’ title defense was nothing short of a disaster, and Stafford struggled through an injury-plagued year in which he played only nine games and threw 10 TDs against eight interceptions.
After years of aggressive moves to acquire and maintain high-profile talent, Snead & Co. went in a different direction this offseason, jettisoning the likes of Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, Allen Robinson, and Bobby Wagner without making any needle-moving free agent additions (with all due apologies to Demarcus Robinson and Brett Rypien). So it stands to reason that, while Snead has preferred to use the term “remodel” rather than “rebuild” to describe the Rams’ current competitive status, he would have explored ways to get Stafford’s expensive, thru-2026 contract off the books.
Since those efforts were unsuccessful, Stafford — who, along with Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp, was named a “weight-bearing wall” in Snead’s multi-faceted remodel analogy — will seek to recapture his 2021 form and prove that he can be the quarterback to lead the Rams back to contention.
He did, at least, enter the Rams’ offseason program without any medical restrictions, so from a health perspective, it appears that he will be better-positioned for success in 2023 than he was in 2022. With his 2024 cap number checking in at a whopping $49.5MM, the upcoming season will certainly go a long way towards determining Stafford’s long-term future in LA.
The team selected two-time collegiate national champion Stetson Bennett in the fourth round of this year’s draft, though Bennett is not presently viewed as a franchise quarterback. However, he could not have asked for a better landing spot than the Rams, considering the presence of Stafford (a fellow Georgia alum) and head coach Sean McVay. Bennett and Rypien will compete for the backup job behind Stafford in training camp.
Browns RB Demetric Felton On Roster Bubble
This will not come as a surprise in light of the team’s current wide receiver and running back depth charts, but Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reports that Demetric Felton will attempt to make the Browns’ roster as an RB. While Felton has worked with both the backs and receivers in his first two professional seasons, that versatility has not led to a guaranteed spot on the 2023 club.
Mere circumstance has played a significant role in Felton’s uncertain status. As a sixth-round pick in 2021, Felton was naturally facing an uphill climb to playing time to begin with, and the Browns’ skill position groups over the last two years have included high-profile talent like Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Amari Cooper, along with players who were drafted sooner or in a higher round, like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz.
Still, Felton appeared in 16 games as a rookie and posted 18 catches (on 21 targets) for 181 yards and two TDs. He also saw extensive action as a return specialist, handling 32 punts and nine kickoffs. However, his role was dramatically reduced in 2022, as he played in just eight contests and earned four targets, one rushing attempt, and eight total returns. As such, Cabot believes that he is on the roster bubble.
The good news for Felton is that the Browns have parted ways with Hunt and fellow running back D’Ernest Johnson this offseason, so the RB3 job behind Chubb and 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford is very much up for grabs (while the WR room remains loaded). The ability to focus on one position should also benefit Felton.
Ultimately, though his receiving prowess will likely be instrumental in determining his job security, Felton will need to prove that he is a capable ball carrier and blocker. In his junior year of college, the UCLA alum posted a 3.8 yards-per-carry rate on 86 rushing attempts, and as that figure would be poor by NFL standards, it is especially troublesome for a collegian. He did boost his YPC average to a much more respectable 5.1 in his senior year, so he may have the potential to be at least a competent runner at the professional level.
We recently heard that the Browns are likely to add a veteran RB, which would obviously impact Felton’s chances of making the team. One wonders if Cleveland will give Felton meaningful running back reps in training camp before making such an addition.
Contract Details On Recent Patriots Deals
Since the Patriots agreed to a three-year extension with wide receiver DeVante Parker at the end of June, we have seen a number of reports offering details on that deal. Ben Volin of the Boston Globe is the latest to weigh in.
It seems clear that the contract is worth a maximum of $33MM. We heard when the signing was first reported that $14MM of that figure is comprised of guarantees and per-game roster bonuses, and Volin notes that only $9.1MM is actually guaranteed (Twitter link). With an additional $4.59MM available in per-game roster bonuses, the total due between those two contractual components is $13.69MM, so just shy of the number included in the initial report.
The base value of the deal, including guarantees, per-game roster bonuses, and salary, is $17.1MM. That leaves $15.9MM available in incentives, all of which are classified as not likely to be earned for cap purposes and include benchmarks for playing time, receptions, and yardage (this jibes with a recent report from ESPN’s Field Yates, who noted that Parker could earn up to $14.7MM in statistical incentives and $1.2MM in All-Pro incentives).
Volin adds (via Twitter) that Parker’s cap numbers over the three years of the deal are $3.69MM, $6.57MM, and $6.57MM. It is a fairly low-risk transaction from New England’s perspective, and it does not impact the club’s pursuit of free agent wideout DeAndre Hopkins (in fact, because of Parker’s reduced 2023 cap charge, it could actually help the Pats in that regard). We heard earlier today that the Titans have been more aggressive than the Patriots in the Hopkins derby to date, but New England certainly remains in the running.
One day after the Parker re-up, the Patriots finalized a new contract with linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley. Bentley landed a two-year extension, which was tacked onto the end of his previous deal and which keeps him under club control through 2025. Volin reports (via Twitter) that, when viewed as a three-year accord, Bentley’s contract is worth a base amount of $16.15MM and includes $1.7MM in incentives (so the maximum value is about $1MM less than the $18.75MM that was initially reported).
Volin confirmed that Bentley landed $9MM in fully-guaranteed money. Ultimately, Bentley will realize a $4.5MM raise for 2023 and will be well-positioned to remain on the roster for at least the 2024 campaign. Given the tepid market for most off-ball linebackers, Bentley may have been wise in sacrificing the chance to hit the open market next year in exchange for additional security.
Giants, S Xavier McKinney Have Not Commenced Extension Talks
The Giants are not believed to have initiated extension talks with safety Xavier McKinney, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic (subscription required). McKinney, a 2020 second-rounder, has accrued three years of service time and is therefore eligible for an extension. If he and the team do not come to terms on a new deal prior to the 2024 league year, he will become an unrestricted free agent (barring the application of the franchise tag).
In his first year as New York’s general manager in 2022, GM Joe Schoen discussed extensions with impending free agents like Saquon Barkley and Julian Love during the bye week. Neither of those negotiations culminated in a new contract, and Barkley was ultimately hit with the franchise tag while Love defected to the Seahawks in free agency. Still, it could be that Schoen prefers to wait until this year’s bye (Week 13) to begin laying the foundation for a second contract for McKinney.
McKinney may also prefer to wait until later in the 2023 season, or even until the end of the season, to engage in talks. In 2022, the Alabama product suffered a broken hand during a midseason ATV accident, and he played in just nine regular season games as a result. His surface-level production naturally dropped as a result of the missed time — for instance, he recorded five interceptions in 2021 versus just one in 2022 — but the underlying metrics also suggested that he took a step back. After earning a strong 75.4 overall grade from Pro Football Focus in 2021 (which included an even better 78.4 coverage score), McKinney was assigned a subpar 57.8 mark in 2022. He also yielded a 93.6 QB rating on passes thrown in his direction last year, which was up significantly from the 72.2 rating he allowed the year before.
As such, his leverage is relatively low at this point, and he may want to take some time to reestablish his value. On the other hand, Duggan suggests that the soon-to-be 24-year-old, who has earned just under $6.5MM through his first three professional seasons and who is due a modest $1.8MM salary in 2023, may be inclined to sign a team-friendly deal in exchange for some financial security. It is unclear what type of payout McKinney will be seeking, though Duggan sees Jalen Thompson‘s three-year extension with the Cardinals — which is worth up to $40MM and which includes $24.5MM in guarantees — as a potential comp.
McKinney remains a key component of the Giants’ defense, and he will be joined by some combination of Nick McCloud, Bobby McCain, Jason Pinnock, and Dane Belton in the defensive backfield. Earlier this year, we learned that McKinney had retained super-agent David Mulugheta, who represents some of the highest-profile safeties in the game.
RB Notes: Hines, Rodriguez, Cook
Here are a few RB-related items from around the league:
- The Bills have invested heavily at the running back position in recent years, and at present, the club has 2022 second-round pick James Cook and 2023 free agent signee Damien Harris at the top of its depth chart, with newcomer Latavius Murray also in the mix. As quarterback Josh Allen is a significant part of Buffalo’s ground attack, and since the Bills also offer a bevy of quality receiving options, Ryan O’Halloran of the Buffalo News wonders how 2022 trade acquisition Nyheim Hines fits into the equation. As a member of the Colts, Hines proved that he can be a dynamic weapon, but he saw just 66 offensive snaps in nine games with the Bills last year. While O’Halloran expects Hines to continue making an impact as a return specialist, he finds it difficult to envision anything more than a gadget role for the NC State product on offense. On the other hand, RB coach Kelly Skipper suggested that Hines’ limited usage in 2022 was largely due to the complexity of the Bills’ playbook, and that Hines will see meaningful action both as a receiver and rusher this season.
- In a feature on Commanders rookie running back Chris Rodriguez Jr., which will be of particular interest to fans of the team and which details the devastating loss of Rodriguez’s mother in January, Nicki Jhabvala of the Washington Post notes that the Commanders had a third-round grade on the Kentucky product. Washington was able to land Rodriguez in the sixth round, and he is currently penciled in as the third RB on the depth chart, behind Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. As a sixth-rounder, though, he is not guaranteed a spot on the roster, especially if the team’s interest in Kareem Hunt should evolve into something more. As new OC Eric Bieniemy noted, Rodriguez will need to impress on special teams, but if he can do so, he could be well-positioned for a productive tenure in the nation’s capital. Gibson is a free agent at season’s end, and while neither Robinson nor Rodriguez offer Gibson’s upside as a receiver, both players have the type of downhill, between-the-tackles power that the team values, and the duo could form a potent 1-2 punch down the line.
- Free agent RB Dalvin Cook recently suggested that he declined a visit with an unnamed club, and according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, that club was not the Dolphins (Twitter link). As of the time of this writing, the ‘Fins are the only named team that has definite interest in Cook’s services, though the latest reporting suggested that about six teams are in the market and that Cook has received multiple offers. Jackson says that Cook — who has previously expressed enthusiasm for joining his hometown Dolphins — remains interested in playing his home games in South Beach.
Bengals LB Coach James Bettcher Likely Successor To DC Lou Anarumo
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo interviewed for the Giants’ head coaching job in 2022 and was a finalist for the Cardinals’ HC post this year. After a lengthy search process, Arizona chose Jonathan Gannon for the position, so Anarumo will return to Cincinnati for the upcoming campaign. Nonetheless, Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic predicts that the 56-year-old will be a prominent member of next year’s coaching cycle (subscription required).
Should Anarumo leave the Bengals to become a head coach elsewhere in 2024, Dehner believes linebackers coach James Bettcher would most likely step into his shoes as Cincy’s DC. There are a number of reasons why that would be a logical move.
For one, a Bettcher promotion would represent schematic continuity, as he will have two years of experience working on Anarumo’s Bengals staff by the time the 2023 season comes to an end. And he also offers defensive coordinator experience himself, having served in that capacity with the Cardinals and Giants last decade.
During Bettcher’s tenure as Arizona’s DC from 2015-17, the club never finished outside of the top-six in total defense, a performance that earned Bettcher a head coaching interview in the desert following the 2017 season. That job ultimately went to Steve Wilks, and although Wilks reportedly offered Bettcher a chance to stay in his post, Bettcher accepted the Giants’ defensive coordinator position instead (he also received an offer from the Titans).
Bettcher’s time with Big Blue did not go according to plan, as the team finished in the bottom-10 in total defense in both of his seasons at the helm. In fairness, New York was not operating with much defensive talent at the time, particularly in the linebacking corps and secondary, which undermined Bettcher’s aggressive approach to play-calling. When Joe Judge became the Giants’ HC in 2020, he did not retain Bettcher, who sat out that season before taking a job as a senior defensive assistant with the 49ers in 2021.
Now 45, Bettcher joined the Bengals in his current role in 2022, a season that saw starting LBs Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt turn in the best performances of their careers. Cincinnati, of course, has emerged as an AFC heavyweight over the past several seasons, and while the Joe Burrow-led offense deservingly gets most of the credit for that development, the defense has steadily improved since Anarumo’s appointment as defensive coordinator in 2019. Last season, although the Bengals finished in the middle of the pack in terms of total defense, they did allow the sixth-fewest points per game and finished just outside the top-10 in takeaways.
If Anarumo’s unit continues its upward trajectory, or at least sustains its current level of performance, it stands to reason that he would generate more HC interest, and that the Bengals would want to promote a familiar and experienced candidate in Bettcher. Of course, the team would need to comply with Rooney Rule requirements before such a move could be made official.
Vikings Using Josh Metellus As Nickel CB
After finishing as the second-worst team in the league in 2022 in terms of total defense and passing defense, it came as no surprise that the Vikings parted ways with a few of the cornerbacks who played major roles in last year’s secondary. Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan, and Cameron Dantzler all found themselves on other clubs this offseason, while Minnesota added Byron Murphy in free agency and will look for some of its recent draft selections to prove their worth under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Players like Andrew Booth (second round, 2022), Akayleb Evans (fourth round, 2022), Mekhi Blackmon (third round, 2023), and Jay Ward (fourth round, 2023) are all in line for significant CB snaps this season (while Ward was drafted as a safety, he lined up at every position in the defensive backfield during his collegiate career at LSU). Plus, as Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com writes, Josh Metellus could see significant action in the slot, as the coaching staff gave him plenty of reps in that role during spring work and made a concerted effort to keep him on the field.
Metellus, a 2020 sixth-round choice, was used primarily on special teams in his first two years in the NFL. Last season, he saw the most extensive action of his pro career, earning three starts and a 22% defensive snap share. His time on defense, though, was spent mostly as a replacement for stalwart safety Harrison Smith, so the fact that Flores wants to see what Metellus can do as a nickel corner is notable.
Although Murphy is perfectly capable of playing in the slot and should be expected to line up there frequently in 2023, it could be that Flores wants his most experienced corner to spend the bulk of his time outside the numbers. That, along with the fact that Smith and Camryn Bynum will reprise their roles as starting safeties, could explain why Metellus is getting a long look at nickel.
According to Seifert, Metellus appeared comfortable in that spot, and assuming he carries that momentum into training camp, he will be ticketed for the most playing time of his career this season. With 2023 serving as his platform year, the timing is perfect for the Michigan product to maximize his earning power, particularly since slot corners are effectively starting players in today’s pass-heavy league (even if the market has been slow to recognize that).
In his time on defense last season, Metellus allowed a 68.4% completion percentage but generally kept the ball in front of him, as he yielded a modest 83.9 QB rating on the 19 balls thrown in his direction. He also recorded five passes defensed and the first interception of his career, which represents quality ball production in such a small sample.
Latest On Eagles’ RG Competition; Team To Add OT?
Like many players who lined up at offensive tackle in college, Eagles third-round rookie Tyler Steen is, according to Bo Wulf of The Athletic (subscription required), set to play guard at the NFL level, at least in his first professional season. Which certainly makes sense, as Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson are locked into the starting tackle jobs.
However, the decision to deploy Steen on the interior is notable for two reasons. One, it sets up an intriguing position battle at right guard between the rookie and 2022 second-rounder Cam Jurgens. Jurgens, a natural center, was drafted as the eventual replacement for five-time First Team All-Pro pivot Jason Kelce, but Kelce elected to put off retirement for another year and agreed to a new contract with Philadelphia in March. As such, there is only one starting spot available on the club’s O-line, and that is the RG post that was vacated when Isaac Seumalo defected to the Steelers in free agency this offseason.
Although Jurgens appeared in only 34 snaps as a rookie (28 of which came at center), he has the benefit of having spent a year learning the Eagles’ offense and the blocking schemes of OL coach Jeff Stoutland. He also lined up with the first-stringers during OTAs, and while that is obviously not as important as who gets the first-team reps in training camp, one would think that Jurgens has a leg up on Steen at the moment, even if the coaching staff has not tipped its hand one way or another.
The loser of the competition will nonetheless become a key reserve, as the guard depth presently consists of the likes of Sua Opeta, Tyrese Robinson, and Julian Good-Jones. The tackle depth behind Mailata and Johnson is similarly uninspiring, and since Steen is focusing his efforts on guard as opposed to tackle, Wulf expects GM Howie Roseman to add an OT before Week 1.
Of course, the market for quality tackles is largely bare at this point in the offseason, though George Fant remains available and would, in Wulf’s estimation, represent an ideal fit. Fant has extensive experience at both OT spots and could be waiting for a clearer path to a starting job to open up in camp. If such an opportunity does not become available, the Eagles have enough cap space (roughly $14MM as of the time of this writing) to entice him. Wulf names the Cardinals’ Kelvin Beachum as a potential trade target, as the rebuilding Arizona outfit used its top pick in this year’s draft on an elite offensive lineman (Paris Johnson Jr.) and could therefore see the 34-year-old Beachum as surplus to requirements, especially with longtime LT D.J. Humphries healthy again.
Wulf also sees wide receiver, inside linebacker, and pass rush as areas in which the Eagles could seek an upgrade, though he does not envision Roseman making a big splash at any of those spots, unless he can pounce on a pass rusher like Yannick Ngakoue that has lingered on the open market.