“Real Competition” Expected For Bears’ RB1 Role
The Bears made an effort to retain longtime starting running back David Montgomery this offseason, but Montgomery eschewed the club’s offer and elected to join the division-rival Lions. Chicago then added D’Onta Foreman to the RB room in free agency and selected Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of this year’s draft. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune believes that there will be a “real competition” for the RB1 role, with incumbent Khalil Herbert, Foreman, and Johnson all having a legitimate shot to land the gig.
Herbert, a 2021 sixth-round choice, has flashed plenty of promise during his first two professional seasons, mostly working as a complement to Montgomery. Over 30 games (three starts), Herbert has accumulated 1,164 rushing yards on 232 totes, which represents a sparkling 5.0 yards-per-carry average. He has added 23 catches for 153 yards and has scored seven total touchdowns.
Foreman, meanwhile, has taken a little longer to realize his potential. A third-round pick of the Texans in 2017, Foreman had a decent showing in his first year in the NFL (78 carries for 327 yards and two TDs), but a torn Achilles cut his rookie season short and forced him to miss most of 2018. He was waived in advance of the 2019 season, with poor work habits reportedly accelerating his departure from Houston.
After sitting out all of 2019, Foreman caught on with the Titans’ practice squad in September 2020 and ultimately appeared in six games for Tennessee that year. In 2021, he got his first extended opportunity to shine since he was a rookie, as he carried the ball 133 times for 566 yards (4.3 YPC) as an injury replacement for Derrick Henry.
Foreman signed with the Panthers last March, and following the Christian McCaffrey trade in October, Foreman became Carolina’s feature back. He ended the 2022 season with 203 carries for 914 yards (4.5 YPC) and five touchdowns and was rumored to be a hot commodity should he and the Panthers fail to agree to a new contract before free agency opened this year.
Of course, Foreman and Carolina did not come to terms on a new deal, so the Texas product became a free agent once again. While the suppressed running back market and his lack of receiving prowess limited him to a one-year, $2MM contract with the Bears, he is well-positioned to have a sizable role in Chicago’s offense, even if he is not the official starter.
Johnson, another Texas alumnus, enjoyed a 5.6 YPC average over his four years with the Longhorns. It stands to reason that he would start his career behind Herbert and Foreman on the depth chart, though Biggs believes Johnson’s draft status puts him firmly in the mix to receive the lion’s share of the carries right out of the gate.
The Bears’ heavy investment into their running attack this offseason did not stop at Foreman and Johnson. Chicago also added Travis Homer in free agency, and the club is still rostering 2022 sixth-rounder Trestan Ebner. While Ebner, who carried the ball 24 times for 54 yards last year, would be hard-pressed to earn many rushing attempts if the Herbert/Foreman/Johnson/Homer quartet remains healthy, Biggs believes the second-year pro could nonetheless retain a roster spot due to his receiving and special teams abilities.
Matt Hennessy Favorite To Start At LG For Falcons?
Four-fifths of the Falcons’ starting offensive line is set, with Jake Matthews at left tackle, Drew Dalman at center, Chris Lindstrom at right guard, and Kaleb McGary at right tackle. That leaves an open spot at left guard, with Matt Hennessy and Matthew Bergeron vying for the role.
Atlanta clearly thinks highly of Bergeron, having traded up six spots in the second round of this year’s draft to select the Syracuse blocker. However, according to Tori McElhaney of the Falcons’ official website, Hennessy took all of the first-team reps at left guard throughout OTAs. McElhaney cautions that there is no reason to think that Bergeron is anything less than advertised, and that the team merely wants to ease him into action at the professional level.
After all, 2021 third-rounder Jalen Mayfield — who had never played on the interior of the line during his collegiate career — struggled mightily during his 16-game audition at left guard in his rookie season. He lost the starting job to journeyman Elijah Wilkinson during last year’s training camp and ultimately spent the entirety of the 2022 campaign on IR.
Bergeron, like Mayfield, lined up exclusively at tackle in college, so a measured approach to his development makes sense, especially in light of the cautionary tale that Mayfield presented. And it’s not as if Hennessy is an incapable player. A third-round pick in 2020, Hennessy became the Falcons’ full-time center in his second pro season and graded out as one of the league’s best pivots that year in the eyes of Pro Football Focus’ metrics (though his stellar run-blocking grade of 88.1 compensated for a rather poor pass-blocking mark of 50.5).
However, just as Mayfield lost his job to Wilkinson, Hennessy ceded his starting role to Dalman last summer, and between that development and a knee injury, the Temple product appeared in just 157 snaps in 2022. All of that work came at left guard, and while that is obviously a small sample size, his 75.4 PFF grade — including an improved 69.2 pass-block assessment — would have made him a top-10 guard if he had enough snaps to qualify.
As he enters his contract year, Hennessy will certainly be motivated to fend off his younger competition. McElhaney, who did not notice any glaring issues with Hennessy’s performance in spring work, indicates that he stands a good chance of entering Week 1 as the starting LG. Training camp, of course, will bring more clarity in that regard.
Raiders Notes: Hobbs, Pass Rush, Jacobs
Let’s round up a few notes on the NFL’s Sin City franchise:
- Raiders cornerback Nate Hobbs, a fifth-round pick in 2021, earned nine starts in his first professional season and started all 11 contests he appeared in last year (he missed six games with a broken hand). Working primarily as a boundary corner, the Illinois product regressed a bit from his strong rookie campaign, when he spent most of his time in the slot. Per Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed of The Athletic (subscription required), Hobbs would like to return to nickelback, where he apparently feels more comfortable. However, Tyler Hall, who played in seven games (three starts) for Las Vegas in 2022 after joining the club’s taxi squad in October, is expected to push Hobbs for that role.
- During this year’s predraft process, we learned that the Raiders were eyeing Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson and believed that Wilson (or a similar player) could ease some of the burden on Chandler Jones, thereby making Jones more productive after the veteran underwhelmed during his first season in Vegas. Of course, the club ended up selecting Wilson with the No. 7 overall pick, and as Albert Breer of SI.com writes, the Raiders hope that Wilson’s presence will allow both the 33-year-old Jones and soon-to-be 26-year-old Maxx Crosby to see less time on the field. The coaching staff envisions a rotation among the three players to keep everyone fresh, healthy, and productive. Indeed, Wilson himself saw his final college season cut short due to a Lisfranc injury, though he is expected to be cleared in time for training camp.
- The Raiders also want to create more of a rotation for their running backs. Assuming franchise-tagged RB Josh Jacobs does not hold out — both he and the club are reportedly motivated to strike an accord on a multiyear deal prior to the July 17 deadline — he will obviously be the feature back. But as Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal writes, the team wants to expand the roles of 2022 draftees Zamir White and Brittain Brown in an effort to ease Jacobs’ workload and, perhaps, to begin preparing for a Jacobs departure in 2024.
Lions CBs Emmanuel Moseley, Jerry Jacobs To Compete For Starting Role
Despite narrowly missing the playoff field in 2022, the Lions finished last in the league in total defense and in the bottom-five in scoring defense. Part of GM Brad Holmes‘ efforts to improve upon that performance included a secondary overhaul this offseason.
Holmes traded Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2020 draft who failed to live up to the expectations that Detroit’s Bob Quinn/Matt Patricia regime had for him, to the Falcons. He also allowed Mike Hughes to depart in free agency while adding Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the defensive backfield.
Of that trio of free agent newcomers, only Sutton landed a multiyear deal, and he is expected to occupy one of the starting boundary corner spots while Gardner-Johnson operates as the Lions’ primary nickel. As Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press notes, Moseley will likely start opposite Sutton as an outside-the-numbers CB, though he will be competing with Jerry Jacobs for the gig. He will also need to get healthy.
Per Birkett, Moseley — who sustained an ACL tear in October as a member of the 49ers — sat out OTAs and mandatory minicamp as he continues to rehab his injury. He did take some first-string walk-through reps, and he impressed the coaching staff by staying with the team for the final week of OTAs after head coach Dan Campbell had excused most of his players.
Moseley, a 2018 UDFA, broke through as a key player for the 49ers during the 2019 season and landed a two-year, $10.1MM contract in March 2021. Unfortunately, a knee injury and an ankle malady forced him to miss six games during the 2021 regular season — though he did return to play every snap of the team’s three-game playoff run — and his October ACL tear dampened his market during his first foray into unrestricted free agency, which forced him to accept a one-year deal from the Lions worth up to $6MM (according to OverTheCap.com, Moseley’s $2MM signing bonus accounts for his only guaranteed money, and his contract also includes a $3MM base salary and up to $1MM in per-game roster bonuses).
When he has been on the field, the Tennessee product has generally played well. He earned a solid 68.7 overall grade from Pro Football Focus in 2021 and a 70.9 mark for his limited work in 2022, and PFF thought highly of his coverage abilities in both years. Underscoring those metrics are the miniscule 65.6 and 66.9 quarterback ratings that he has yielded over the past two seasons, and he also has the ability to line up in the slot should DC Aaron Glenn want to move Gardner-Johnson around the formation.
Jacobs, though, will represent worthy competition, and he will be highly-motivated to retain a significant role on the Lions’ defense as he enters a platform year. The 2021 UDFA has played in 25 games (17 starts) for Detroit over the past two seasons, and while PFF assigned him a poor 55.8 overall grade in 2022, he earned a 65.8 score in his rookie campaign. Quarterbacks throwing in his direction last year had a meager passer rating of 70.0.
Birkett did not offer any insight as to Moseley’s Week 1 availability, but it does not sound as if he will miss too much regular season time, if any.
“He’s anxious man,” new cornerbacks coach Dre Bly said of Moseley. “He was a pretty daggoone good player out there in San Fran. He’s from North Carolina, went to Tennessee, played with [Sutton], so those guys are kind of wired the same and so just to see his fire to get back on the field, his commitment to working and rehabbing, it tells you about the man. When most guys are traveling and vacationing, he’s here working to make sure he’s ready when we come back to camp. So I’m excited to have a chance to work with him. I think he brings a tremendous amount of leadership and experience to our room and can’t wait to see what comes from that.”
Bills WR Stefon Diggs Reportedly Frustrated By Role In Offense, Input In Play-Calling
While Bills quarterback Josh Allen recently classified the source of wide receiver Stefon Diggs‘ discontent with the team as “not football related,” Ben Volin of the Boston Globe has heard otherwise. Volin, citing a source “close to the Bills’ locker room,” says that Diggs is frustrated with his role in the club’s offense and his input in play-calling.
Diggs did not participate in April workouts, but since those sessions were voluntary, there was no real reason to think much of his absence, despite plenty of speculation that he was unhappy. Alarm bells did go off in earnest on the first day of mandatory minicamp on Tuesday, when Bills head coach Sean McDermott told the media that Diggs was not in attendance and that he was “very concerned” as a result.
Shortly thereafter, Diggs’ agent, Adisa Bakari, pointed out that his client had met with McDermott and GM Brandon Beane over the prior two days, and on Wednesday — when Diggs participated in practice but not in team drills — McDermott definitively declared the matter resolved and said Diggs’ Tuesday absence was excused.
McDermott’s sudden about-face did not do much to quell the rumblings about Diggs’ frustration, especially since we still have not heard from the player himself. Volin’s report, which was published today, has added a little context, but there is still plenty of uncertainty.
Indeed, as Volin notes, Diggs was ranked in the top-five in targets (154), receptions (108), yards (1,429), and touchdowns (11) in 2022. Since coming to Buffalo via trade prior to the 2020 season, Diggs’ 484 targets are second only to Raiders wideout Davante Adams. As such, it is difficult to see how the Bills could increase his role in the offense, though Volin also observes that, over the final six contests of the 2022 campaign (including playoffs), Diggs averaged only 63 yards per game and caught just one TD pass. After the team’s divisional-round loss to the Bengals in January — a game in which he recorded four catches for 35 yards — Diggs stormed out of the locker room before some coaches had arrived and needed to be brought back.
As for Diggs’ reported discontent with his voice in Buffalo’s offensive play-calling, Volin simply said that the Maryland product may not have “connected as well” with OC Ken Dorsey as he had with Brian Daboll, who left the Bills to take the Giants’ HC job last year. Still, even if the Bills were inclined to part ways with their star receiver — which the Super Bowl-ready club is certainly not — it would be difficult to imagine Diggs finding a better situation for himself.
McDermott ultimately cancelled the third and final day of mandatory minicamp on Thursday, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter (via Twitter). Therefore, we will likely need to wait until sometime in training camp to hear Diggs’ take on the situation and where he currently stands.
Browns Likely To Acquire Running Back
Free agent running back Kareem Hunt, who spent the last four years as Nick Chubb‘s backup and occasional 1-B option in Cleveland, finally generated some interest several days ago, when it was reported that the Commanders had made “preliminary inquiries” into his services. The Browns, meanwhile, decided several months ago that they would allow Hunt to seek opportunities elsewhere and would move 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford into Hunt’s place on the depth chart.
That does not mean, however, that GM Andrew Berry is averse to adding more talent to the RB room. Berry did not select a running back in this year’s draft and has not yet acquired a veteran in free agency, but Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com believes he will ultimately do just that. She does caution that high-profile players like Ezekiel Elliott and the recently-released Dalvin Cook are not likely targets, and that the Browns will seek a player that could be had on a more modest deal. Speculatively, a back like Justin Jackson, James Robinson, or Kenyan Drake could fit the bill.
Chubb, who has earned Pro Bowl acclaim in each of the past four seasons, will obviously continue to serve as the focal point of Cleveland’s running game. Ford tallied a meager eight carries for 12 yards in his rookie campaign, but his efforts as the club’s primary kick returner (30 returns for 723 yards) suggest that he could be a useful complementary piece and Hunt-esque receiver out of the backfield. Indeed, as Cabot notes in a separate article (subscription required), Chubb has lauded Ford’s pass-catching ability, and the Browns’ coaching staff and front office clearly have a great deal of faith in his ability to take on an expanded role.
Still, another experienced option couldn’t hurt, as the Browns lost D’Ernest Johnson — who impressed in limited opportunities over the first four years of his career in Cleveland — to the Jaguars in free agency. At present, 2021 sixth-rounder Demetric Felton (eight career carries) is penciled in as the RB3.
Chubb, by virtue of the three-year, $36MM extension he signed in 2021, is under club control for the next two seasons.
Latest On Negotiations Between Dolphins, DT Christian Wilkins
It does not sound as if the Dolphins and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins have made much progress on an extension. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald says that while both sides remain motivated to get a deal done, an agreement remains elusive.
Notably, Jackson does not suggest that player and team are any closer to an accord now than they were when negotiations commenced several months ago. Jackson has noted previously that guaranteed money could prove to be a sticking point in contract talks, which is often the case when the player in question plays a highly-compensated position.
If the ‘Fins were to allow Wilkins to play out the 2023 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal — which will pay him $10.7MM — they could simply hit him with the franchise tag in 2024. Jackson writes that Wilkins, predictably, would be unhappy with that course of action, though the tag for DTs is estimated to be worth $20.8MM. A second tag in 2025 would check in at roughly $25MM, so Wilkins may be targeting guaranteed money at least equal to the sum of those two figures, or $45.8MM (though that is just my speculation).
To date, nine interior defenders are playing on contracts featuring $45MM in guarantees, and six of those players enjoy AAVs over $20MM. Spotrac suggests that Wilkins — whose importance to Miami’s defense was underscored by his career-high 84% snap share and his stellar 82.2 overall grade from Pro Football Focus in 2022 — merits a four-year deal with an annual average just shy of $20MM.
Whether the Dolphins are willing to go to those lengths to retain Wilkins, who does not offer as much in the pass rush department as some of his peers, remains to be seen. Further complicating the matter is the fact that Wilkins’ defensive line bookend, Zach Sieler, is also pushing for a new deal as he enters his platform year.
Sieler’s next contract will not be as valuable as Wilkins’, but he could still be in line for an eight-figure yearly average. GM Chris Grier will therefore need to decide how much he wants to invest in his D-line, which he did not supplement with any free agent signings or draft picks this year. He also has to contend with a less-than-rosy financial outlook, as the Dolphins are projected to be $31.7MM over the 2024 cap as of the time of this writing.
Both Wilkins and Sieler are Drew Rosenhaus clients, and as Jackson points out, the ‘Fins generally take care of talent that the super-agent represents. Rosenhaus recently said that he would not be making any public comments on the contractual situations of either player.
Panthers Likely To Add Pass Rusher?
Earlier this month, we heard that the Panthers were presently disinclined to authorize a notable contract for a free agent pass rusher, and that fourth-year pro Yetur Gross-Matos would have a chance to retain his starting job opposite Brian Burns. We did note that GM Scott Fitterer would continue to monitor the edge defender market, and Joseph Person of The Athletic says he does, in fact, expect Carolina to add a pass rusher before the regular season opener (subscription required).
Person does not hazard a guess as to a specific player that Fitterer might target. Of course, there will always be cuts from other clubs that will quickly find a new home, but a top-flight pass rusher is highly unlikely to hit the market in the summer. And the existing market has thinned in the last several weeks, as Leonard Floyd (Bills) and Frank Clark (Broncos) have come off the board.
That still leaves plenty of worthwhile defenders available, including players like Yannick Ngakoue, Jadeveon Clowney, Robert Quinn, and Melvin Ingram. While some of those talents may be too rich for Fitterer’s liking — Ngakoue, for instance, was targeting a contract paying him $8MM-$10MM per year as of May — the Panthers will almost certainly be able to add an experienced edge player for an affordable price at some point in the next couple of months.
In the meantime, Gross-Matos, Marquis Haynes, and third-round rookie D.J. Johnson will continue to make their case for a starter’s role. According to Person, Haynes was particularly impressive during Carolina’s three-day mandatory minicamp last week, frequently getting into the offensive backfield and in the face of rookie quarterback Bryce Young.
Haynes, who has been used in a rotational capacity since the Panthers selected him in the fourth round of the 2018 draft, did see a career-high 41% snap share in 2022, and he produced five sacks (also a career best). Neither he nor Gross-Matos fared well in the eyes of Pro Football Focus’ metrics, but it is at least notable that he doubled Gross-Matos’ sack production and had three more QB hits while playing nearly 400 fewer snaps.
Person says that Haynes, who is entering a platform year and who is due just $1.4MM in 2023, may be better-suited to a stand-up OLB role in DC Ejiro Evero‘s 3-4 scheme than he was to a 4-3 look. He has certainly caught Young’s attention.
“He’s been great,” Young said. “There’s a lot of great competition here, so you see him in the backfield. It’s good on good. It’s elite guys going up against each other. It’s tough when you have to go up against him every day in practice. But on Sundays, it’s great knowing that you have a guy like that out there.”
Vikings Eyeing Extension For T.J. Hockenson
The Vikings have several talented pass catchers in line for lucrative extensions. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson is understandably dominating the headlines in that regard, and according to ESPN’s Kevin Seifert, the Jefferson negotiations are occupying the bulk of Minnesota’s attention at the moment (subscription required). Nonetheless, Seifert says that GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah plans to address tight end T.J. Hockenson‘s deal as well, even if that does not happen until later in the summer.
The Vikes acquired Hockenson via an intra-divisional swap with the Lions in advance of the 2022 trade deadline. In 10 regular season games in Minnesota, Hockenson posted 60 catches for 519 yards and three scores. His 8.7 yards per reception rate was somewhat disappointing in light of the 11.1 YPR average he enjoyed over 3+ years in Detroit, but that could be a result of small sample size noise and could improve with a full offseason of work in the Vikings’ offense. Hockenson demonstrated how explosive he can be in the club’s wildcard round loss to the Giants, racking up 10 catches (on 11 targets) for 129 yards.
Hockenson, who will turn 26 next month, is under club control through 2023 since Detroit exercised the fifth-year option of his rookie deal last April. He is due to earn $9.4MM for the upcoming season, which would represent something of a bargain given the current state of the TE market.
At present, 11 TEs are averaging $10MM or more per season, though that list includes Saints’ all-purpose weapon Taysom Hill. Spotrac estimates that Hockenson could score a contract with a $14.4MM AAV on the open market, a figure that would place him behind only the Giants’ Darren Waller and the 49ers’ George Kittle. Waller’s Raiders-constructed deal is comparatively light on guarantees, however, and Hockenson will likely be shooting for between $30MM-$40MM in guaranteed money (Kittle, the Ravens’ Mark Andrews, the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert, and the Bills’ Dawson Knox are the tight ends on non-rookie deals that feature guarantees in that range).
Pro Football Focus’ metrics considered Hockenson the 10th-best tight end in the league in 2022 despite subpar blocking grades. The Vikings did give Josh Oliver a notable free agent deal in March, and he offers plenty of blocking acumen. Plus, as Seifert writes, head coach Kevin O’Connell believes that pairing Hockenson and Oliver will allow his offense to live up to its full potential, and it does not appear that the Oliver signing impacts Hockenson’s future with the club in any way.
In related news, Craig Peters of the Vikings’ official website reports that recently-retired tight end Ben Ellefson will join the team’s staff in a hybrid role that will allow the Minnesota native to “explore coaching, scouting and player development opportunities.”
Broncos Unlikely To Sign Dalvin Cook
The Broncos’ running back depth chart is presently topped by Javonte Williams, who tore his ACL in October, and career second fiddle Samaje Perine. Given that, and given GM George Paton‘s Vikings ties, Denver has been considered a logical landing spot for four-time Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook, who was released by Minnesota several days ago.
Mike Klis of 9News.com has thrown some cold water on those rumors, reporting that the Broncos “do not appear to be in on” Cook. Before Cook’s release became official, Klis reported that Denver was highly unlikely to swing an eleventh-hour trade for him, and financial considerations certainly played a part in that decision. Had the Broncos acquired Cook via trade, they would have been on the hook for his $10.4MM salary in 2023, as Cook had no desire to work out a restructure as part of a trade. And the Vikings, who clearly cut Cook for cap reasons, may not have been inclined to eat much salary to facilitate a swap.
Even though Cook is now on the free agent market, money remains a key issue. Per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter), Cook still wants to make close to the $10.4MM salary he was due to earn with the Vikings, and multiple reporters (including Jackson) have suggested that he is willing to be patient in his efforts to secure that payout. At present, the Broncos only have about $6MM of cap space.
Of course, Denver could create the necessary salary cap room if it really wanted to, but on-field factors are also influencing the club’s decision to stay away from Cook. Williams participated in OTAs, and though he has yet to take part in 11-on-11 drills, Klis estimates that the third-year pro has a better than 50-50 chance to start the regular season opener. Williams clearly has RB1 ability, and even if he is not fully healthy for the start of the 2023 campaign, it does not make sense to sign Cook to a lucrative contract and not have a spot for Williams when he is ready to return to the field.
Klis does believe that the Broncos could seek to add another player with starting experience to its running back room, as the options behind Williams and Perine — Tony Jones, Jr., Tyler Badie, and UDFA rookie Jaleel McLaughlin — are either uninspiring or unproven. Such an addition, though, would be considerably less expensive than Cook.
If Cook’s market does not materialize in the way that he hopes, or if the current reports on Williams’ prognosis prove overly optimistic, it is possible that the Broncos could circle back to Cook (after all, they have reportedly monitored the Florida State product for some time). Until then, however, it appears that the Dolphins will remain the frontrunners for his services.