Poll: Who Will Be No. 2 Overall Pick?
Barring something unexpected, Myles Garrett can begin researching the ins and outs of Cleveland. The Texas A&M standout looks destined to head to the Browns, who are not planning to unload the No. 1 pick for a quarterback.
The No. 2 choice, though, doesn’t appear nearly as certain. A number of talents could hear their names called when the 49ers or another team turns in the draft’s second player card.
San Francisco will be open to trading the No. 2 overall selection, which the Browns did last year in acquiring draft picks to send Carson Wentz to Philadelphia. The 49ers have needs at many positions after going 2-14 last season and having parted ways with their coach following the past three campaigns. They have been monitoring the quarterbacks in this class. They worked out Mitch Trubisky, and John Lynch attended Patrick Mahomes‘ pro day. The 49ers also visited with Garrett and Reuben Foster.
The team has short- and long-term questions at quarterback. The 49ers signed the 2016 Bears’ Nos. 2 and 3 quarterbacks in Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley, and Hoyer would probably be the starter as of now. But the team has also been connected to Kirk Cousins, and with a Redskins extension for the signal-caller not gaining any steam, might San Francisco be content to start Hoyer in this rebuilding season and either take the second-best player in the draft or add picks from another team? With ex-Redskins OC Kyle Shanahan now at the controls, the 49ers would seemingly be a top destination for Cousins in 2018. A third Washington franchise tag in ’18 is untenable, so no extension by July 15 could trigger a unique modern bidding war next year.
Players like Foster, edge man Solomon Thomas and interior defender Jonathan Allen have also been connected to the 49ers, who have used first-round picks fortifying their defensive interior — in Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner — the past two years. They are also switching to a 4-3 scheme after many years in base 3-4 looks. Their defense plummeted to No. 32 in the league last season, with just two players registering more than three sacks. Defensive backs Jamal Adams (LSU) and Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State) have been generating top-five buzz after the Combine, and the 49ers are thin in the secondary as well. Beyond quarterback, mock drafts are leaning to a potential impact defender going to San Francisco.
But would the 49ers, whose offense ranked 31st in 2016, be better unloading this coveted selection and gathering potential starters with the returns of a trade?
The Panthers are interested in acquiring the 49ers’ pick, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report notes, with the purpose of said swap being Thomas or Leonard Fournette. Other teams could also be pondering that move as well. It would almost certainly cost the Panthers their second-round pick (No. 40) and possibly their third-rounder as well, with certain value models requiring Carolina to surrender more assets to complete that deal. But Fournette probably isn’t going to go to the 49ers if they keep the pick.
Wentz was not believed to be a No. 2 overall-level talent until the Eagles pulled the trigger on their seminal trade. A quarterback-needy team could still be looking at a trade centered around taking Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer or even Mahomes — the quartet’s enduring scrutiny notwithstanding — and shake up the draft like the Titans, Browns, Rams and Eagles did last year. But these quarterbacks have not received the praise Jared Goff (and eventually Wentz) did, further complicating this draft.
So, where would the 49ers go with their selection? Should they take a quarterback and bypass a potential Cousins pursuit? Should they go with one of the impact front-seven Alabama stalwarts in Allen or Foster? Or after bolstering their defensive interior the past two years, is an edge threat like Thomas in the cards? Would another team make a deal to land one of the quarterbacks or Fournette? Take PFR’s latest poll to weigh in on this unique draft.
PFR Originals: 3/26/17 – 4/2/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- With rumors swirling that the Panthers would like to acquire the No. 2 overall pick from the 49ers, I examined what Carolina would have to sacrifice to move up to the top of Round 1. Using Chase Stuart of Football Perspective’s draft value chart, I worked out a trade that would see Carolina send the eighth selection, a second-rounder, and a fifth-rounder to San Francisco in exchange for No. 2, a fourth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder. The classic, Jimmy Johnson-devised value chart, however, would force the Panthers to ship much more to the Niners.
- An Indoor Football League team declined to sign Greg Hardy following a fan vote, leading Zach Links to ask if an NFL club should consider inking the controversial defensive end. Hardy, still only 28 years old, is an exceptionally talented player, but no team wants to touch him after his history of domestic violence (and his lack of accountability). Thus far, PFR readers agree with devotees of the Salt Lake City Screamers — more than 80% of respondents don’t think Hardy should land a contract.
How The Panthers Can Move To No. 2 Overall
The latest rumor buzzing around the draft world involves the Panthers considering a trade up to acquire the second overall pick from the 49ers, as Matt Miller of Bleacher Report indicated yesterday. Carolina would reportedly move up with the intention of selecting either Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas or LSU running back Leonard Fournette.
But what would such a trade look like? San Francisco, in the midst of a full rebuild, would likely aim to secure more draft wealth, while the Panthers — presumably in win-now mode — are probably willing to part with draft assets. As Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote earlier this week, Carolina has amassed the league’s seventh-most draft capital this offseason , so the club certainly has resources to utilize if it wants to make an upward leap.
According to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective‘s draft value chart, the Panthers wouldn’t have to sacrifice all that much to move from No. 8 to No. 2. Per Stuart, the gap in the two picks is just 8.8 points of draft value, meaning Carolina’s 40th overall pick (worth 11.1 points) would be more than enough to get a deal done. The No. 64 pick — acquired from the Patriots in the Kony Ealy trade– is worth 8.1 points, meaning that it would almost be enough to entice the 49ers.
Let’s take a look at a few potential trades in chart form, using Stuart’s values:
That final trade listed involves the 49ers sending the No. 2 overall pick, an early fourth-rounder, and an early seventh-rounder to the Panthers in exchange for No. 8, No. 40, and an early fifth-round pick. The difference in draft value comes out to 0.0, meaning it’s a perfectly fair deal for both sides — at least on paper.
The classic, Jimmy Johnson-devised trade chart, however, assigns a much greater valuation to early first-round picks, so the Panthers would have to trade much more in order to secure the No. 2 selection. In Johnson’s table, the gap between the second and eighth selections is large enough that a combination of the No. 40 and the No. 64 picks (in addition to No. 8) wouldn’t be enough to convince San Francisco to swap choices. Instead, the Panthers would probably have to give up a 2018 first-rounder in order to complete the trade.
A Thomas acquisition, specifically, would be the latest signal that Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman values the defensive line above all else, as Carolina has already spent early picks on Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short, and Vernon Butler, and has re-signed Mario Addison, Charles Johnson, and Wes Horton this offseason. Thomas for his part, ranks as the fourth overall player on Todd McShay of ESPN.com‘s big board.
Fournette, meanwhile, is considered the top running back of the 2017 class, and Panthers head coach Ron Rivera recently said no draft slot is “too high” to take a runner. Carolina inked incumbent back Jonathan Stewart to a one-year extension last week, but Gettleman said that deal won’t preclude the club from selecting a running back early in this year’s draft.
Poll: Should An NFL Team Sign Greg Hardy?
Greg Hardy‘s stock is lower than we ever could have expected. An Indoor Football League team flirted with the idea of signing the defensive end, but opted against it after he did not pass a fan referendum. No one wants to go near the former Pro Bowler because of his unsettling history with domestic violence and perceived lack of accountability for said violence. Even when the Cowboys gave him a second chance in 2015, he was moody, lazy, and late to practice. It’s easy to understand why the NFL wants nothing to do with him and one can even understand the IFL’s hesitation in getting involved with him. 
Still, when he’s on the field, Hardy is a game-changing talent. Between 2011 and 2013, the former sixth-round pick averaged 56 tackles and 10 sacks per season season. Even in a down year with Dallas in 2015, he ranked as the league’s 28th-best edge defender out of 110 qualified players, according to Pro Football Focus. At his worst, Hardy is a starting caliber defensive end and he won’t turn 29 until this summer.
Today, we borrow a page from the Salt Lake Screaming Eagles’ book and ask this of PFR readers: Would you want your favorite team to sign Hardy? Vote below and, if you want, explain your choice in the comments.
PFR Originals: 3/19/17 – 3/26/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- More than 40 restricted free agents were offered tenders earlier this month, and rival clubs now have until April 21 to sign those RFAs to offer sheets. Center Ryan Groy already inked an offer sheet that was subsequently matched by the Bills, while the Saints are trying to land Patriots RFA Malcolm Butler.
- The Spring League will feature some notable names such as Greg Hardy, Ben Tate, and Kellen Winslow when it kicks off next month, and Pro Football Rumors reported that an additional 30 players are scheduled to join the four-team league before its inaugural campaign.
- Prior to the Jets signing Josh McCown, Sam Robinson asked PFR readers to rank their favorites for the New York starting quarterback job in 2017. At last check, Jay Cutler held the plurality of votes over McCown, Bryce Petty, and Trevor Siemian, but now that he’s officially under contract, McCown sill likely be under center come Week 1.
- Zach Links answered questions from readers in our latest PFR Live Chat.
Updates On 2017’s Restricted Free Agents
The deadline for NFL restricted free agents to sign offer sheets with rival clubs is April 21, so RFAs have just under a month to discuss deals with other teams. So far, only one RFA — interior offensive lineman Ryan Groy — has inked an offer sheet, but the Bills matched the terms of the pact, meaning he’ll head back to Buffalo.
Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler, tendered at the first-round level, is reportedly negotiating a contract with the Saints, although most observers don’t expect New Orleans to sacrifice the No. 11 overall pick in order to sign Butler, with a trade involving a later selection viewed as far more likely. Elsewhere, Browns running back Isaiah Crowell is also drawing interest, although clubs would need to give up a second-round pick in order to sign him.
In total, more than 40 restricted free agents have been tendered this offseason. Let’s take a look at where things stand with those RFAs:
Signed to offer sheet:
- Ryan Groy, OL: Signed two-year, $5MM offer sheet with Rams. Matched by Bills.
First-round tender ($3.91MM):
- Malcolm Butler, CB (Patriots)
Second-round tender ($2.746MM):
- Trey Burton, TE (Eagles)
- Isaiah Crowell, RB (Browns)
- Todd Davis, LB (Broncos)
- Taylor Gabriel, WR (Falcons)
- Dontrelle Inman, WR (Chargers)
- Wesley Johnson, C (Jets)
- Brandon McManus, K (Broncos)
- Andrew Norwell, G (Panthers)
- Chris Thompson, RB (Redskins)
- Marcus Williams, CB (Jets)
Original round / right of first refusal tender ($1.797MM):
- Denico Autry, DE (Raiders)
- Marcus Burley, CB (Browns)
- Michael Campanaro, WR (Ravens)
- Ross Cockrell, CB (Steelers)
- Will Compton, LB (Redskins)
- Dominique Easley, DT (Rams)
- Cameron Fleming, T (Patriots)
- Garry Gilliam, T (Seahawks)
- Mike Gillislee, RB (Bills)
- Ryan Griffin, QB (Buccaneers)
- Chris Hubbard, T (Steelers)
- James Hurst, T (Ravens)
- Ryan Jensen, OL (Ravens)
- Cornelius Lucas, T (Lions)
- Cairo Santos, K (Chiefs)
- Jacquies Smith, DE (Buccaneers)
- Michael Thomas, S (Dolphins)
- Korey Toomer, LB (Chargers)
- Terrance West, RB (Ravens)
- Ethan Westbrooks, DE (Rams)
- Damien Williams, RB (Dolphins)
- Albert Wilson, WR (Chiefs)
- Kerry Wynn, DE (Giants)
Tendered, then extended:
- Kiko Alonso, LB (Dolphins): Tendered at first-round level before signing three-year deal.
- T.J. Johnson, OL (Bengals): Tendered at original round level before signing two-year deal
- Daniel Sorensen, S (Chiefs): Tendered at second-round level before signing four-year deal.
- Adam Thielen, WR (Vikings): Tendered at second-round level before signing three-year deal
Tendered, then withdrawn:
- Marqueston Huff, S (Ravens)
- Jumal Rolle, CB (Ravens)
PFR Live Chat With Zach Links
Kellen Winslow, Ben Tate Join Spring League
The Spring League kicks off in April and it will feature some notable names looking to resurrect their football careers. Defensive end Greg Hardy, tight end Kellen Winslow Jr., cornerback Brandon Browner, and running back Ben Tate are among the players who have been confirmed as participants, according to a press release. 
Winslow has not played in an NFL game since the 2013 season and we haven’t heard much from him since he worked out for the Packers last August. Tate, a former second-round pick, showed lots of promise in Houston but could not capitalize on a starting opportunity with the Browns in 2014. Hardy and Browner first committed to the league in early March.
The Spring League consists of four teams comprised of veteran free agents. The league will conduct practices and play six games from April 5 through April 26. Players who are currently on NFL rosters will not be eligible to participate.
The league has secured five quarterbacks thus far, including Chiefs 2011 fifth-round pick Ricky Stanzi and NFL practice squad journeyman McLeod Bethel-Thompson. At wide receiver, there’s former Ram Brandon Gibson, Jets 2014 fourth-round pick Jalen Saunders, and one-time Bills WR2 David Nelson. Former Jets defensive back Ellis Lankster and Texans 2013 third-round defensive tackle Sam Montgomery will also be suiting up for The Spring League next month.
The full list of players can be found below. In addition to those listed here, Pro Football Rumors has learned that another 30 players are expected to join prior to the start of training camp.
Quarterbacks
- Hutson Mason
- Ricky Stanzi
- McLeod Bethel-Thompson
- Zach Kline
- Jeremy Cannon
Running backs
- Zachery Bauman
- Kelsey Young
- Josh Robinson
- Ben Tate
- Noel Devine
- Adam Cox (FB)
Wide receivers
- Jalen Saunders
- David Nelson
- Kenzel Doe
- Brandon Gibson
- Daje’ Johnson
- Gavin Lutman
- Tyler McDonald
- J.D. Woods
- Sed Cunningham
- Lawrence Smith
- Terrance Lewis
- Rashon Ceaser
- Kendrick Wiggins
Poll: Who Will Be Jets’ Starting Quarterback?
Currently saddled with one of the thinnest quarterback depth charts in the league, the Jets reportedly aren’t rushing their decision on which veteran they decide to bring in to presumably deploy as their latest stopgap option after Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s exit.
They brought in Josh McCown for a visit this weekend and reached out to Jay Cutler earlier this week. That interest being mutual, it’s reasonable to expect Cutler to make a trip to meet with the Jets soon. Despite being linked to the polarizing passer via trade last year, Gang Green has reportedly closed the door on a Colin Kaepernick union to further limit their options.
However, it’s clear the Jets intend to sign at least one veteran to serve as a bridge player while they continue to evaluate Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg. It’s not expected New York will draft a quarterback with its first-round pick, having taken Hackenberg in Round 2 last year. Although, if the Jets don’t see what they like out of the current market, it’s conceivable the rebuilding outfit could turn the reins over to Petty to continue an audition that an injury interrupted in 2016. However, the team is not believed to have much faith in either incumbent at this time.
Cutler is a higher-end talent than McCown but is coming off a rough 2016, which turned out to be a contract year since the Bears made him a first-time free agent. Once traded for two first-round picks, Cutler is probably the best quarterback available on the UFA market. He will turn 34 next month, but McCown will be 38 by the time Week 1 begins in September. McCown also served as Cutler’s backup for three seasons in Chicago. As recently as 2015, Cutler finished with a career-best 92.3 quarterback rating. He threw 21 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions during his one season in Adam Gase‘s offense. A 2008 Pro Bowler, Cutler threw for 28 touchdown passes in 2014. Only two Jets passers — Fitzpatrick and Vinny Testaverde — have matched such a showing in a season. But the 12th-year player carries considerable baggage at this point.
McCown played reasonably well with the 2015 Browns, completing 63.7 percent of his passes for a team devoid of much talent. But he missed most of last season due to injury and struggled for the 2014 Buccaneers. Since being given additional opportunities by multiple teams after a solid small success sample on the 2013 Bears, McCown has a 2-20 record as a starter over the past three seasons. He would be an upgrade over Petty and Hackenberg in the short-term but might not make a ton of sense for a team that just axed several veterans and doesn’t have much in the way of pass-catching talent presently, especially with Eric Decker‘s status uncertain. McCown, though, wouldn’t command the kind of per-year salary Cutler likely would.
Gang Green could pursue other options like Chase Daniel or Case Keenum, but the talent pool is thin at this juncture. The Jets bowed out of the Mike Glennon race due to his $15MM-per-year price tag and saw Geno Smith — considered a fallback option as a starter — sign with the Giants. Robert Griffin III wants to play for the Jets, but the team might not have the same interest it did last year after RG3’s uninspiring Browns season continued a steady descent.
For a team that is not likely to contend in 2017, throwing Petty or Hackenberg into the fire would make sense if the Jets believe either can be a medium- or long-term answer. But that doesn’t appear the case.
Tony Romo‘s eventual decision (or the Cowboys’, in the event of a trade) could open the door to a possible Trevor Siemian/Jets setup. The team would be interested in acquiring the Broncos’ 2016 starter via trade if Romo ends up in Denver, but conflicting reports have emerged on whether or not the Broncos would unload him. Siemian has two years remaining on a seventh-round rookie deal.
So how will the Jets proceed here? Will it be a caretaker like McCown, or will they roll the dice with Cutler? Will Gang Green’s search delve deeper into the UFA market and look at a career backup in Daniel? Or will the Jets decide to invest their No. 6 pick in one of the scrutinized rookies? Take PFR’s latest poll.
PFR Originals: 3/12/17 – 3/19/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- The first wave of free agency is in the books, but there are still plenty of high-quality players left on the board. Zach Links took a look at the best players remaining on the offensive side of the ball, a list that includes Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles, while I examined the unsigned players on defense, including Johnathan Hankins, Dwight Freeney, and Zach Brown.
- The Saints are reportedly working on contract terms for Patriots restricted free agent corner Malcolm Butler, leading Zach to outline all the scenarios that could come into play between the two teams. As Zach details, it seems unlikely New Orleans would sacrifice their No. 11 overall pick by signing Butler to an offer sheet, so a less-costly trade is probably the preferable way of getting Butler to the Saints.
- Coaching staff alterations are often forgotten by the time free agency rolls around, but those move shouldn’t be overlooked. As such, I put together a list of 2017’s major coaching changes which tracks all head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator adjustments.