Broncos Rumors: Miller, Elway, Schofield
In an offseason where Andrew Luck looms as an expiring contract, not much has emerged on that front. Instead, Von Miller‘s Broncos negotiation has seized command of the NFL financial news cycle.
In the past two weeks, Miller’s situation with the Broncos transformed from pleasant to contentious, with the fearsome edge defender turning down a six-year, $114.5MM offer and threatening to hold out. There was also the deep-cutting Instagram cropping out of John Elway from a White House photo taken earlier this month.
The Miller camp being fine with the total value of the deal pushes guaranteed money to the forefront of negotiations that figure to pick up again as the July 15 deadline looms. The Broncos, though, could have several reasons for offering Miller less than $40MM in fully guaranteed money, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk points out.
The team fearing a Miller tailspin either in the form of a return of the substance-abuse issues that plagued him in 2013 — his only non-Pro Bowl season, one that included a six-game suspension — or in the form of an immense dip in production a la Albert Haynesworth with the 2009 Redskins. The latter seems particularly unlikely given Miller’s five-year sample size for the team with which he’s negotiating.
Florio also writes that Miller is not seeking to dwarf Ndamukong Suh‘s $59.5MM in full guarantees at signing, but rather to have as much as $70MM in guarantees to vest by March 2017 instead of March 2018. Denver would then be required to fund the remaining guaranteed money that didn’t come as fully guaranteed dollars upon signing by then. The Eagles gave Fletcher Cox $63MM in guarantees, with $55MM+ of that amount becoming fully guaranteed by March of 2017. With Cox making one Pro Bowl and no All-Pro first teams compared to Miller’s four and two such achievements, Florio notes a $70MM guarantee vesting by next March is a plausible request for the 27-year-old pass-rusher.
Here’s more on the Broncos and the AFC West.
- Elway’s been able to deftly navigate delicate situations during his Broncos GM tenure, from cutting Peyton Manning‘s pay to jettisoning Elvis Dumervil after a fax machine foul-up and trading Tim Tebow. But Miller’s status in the game after his Super Bowl MVP performance and five-sack playoffs could loom as a bigger hurdle than both given how important Elway’s first Broncos draft pick is to the team’s success, Mark Kizsla of the Denver Post writes.
- The fourth option to start at tackle for the Broncos in 2015 but a player who ended up being the Super Bowl champions’ primary right tackle as a result of injuries to Ryan Clady and Ty Sambrailo, Michael Schofield did not put together consistent film in his second season as a pro. The Broncos brought in Donald Stephenson to take his spot despite Stephenson delivering unspectacular production with the Chiefs, but Schofield’s added weight in the offseason to help his cause, Mike Klis of 9News reports. He’s up to close to 310 pounds now after playing at under 300 in 2015. Out of 77 tackles assigned grades as full-time performers in 2015 by Pro Football Focus, the 2014 third-round pick ranked 66th. Although Schofield lined up exclusively at left tackle in minicamp due to Russell Okung‘s absence, he’ll likely return to his role of swing backup given Denver’s three-year, $14MM commitment to Stephenson — who actually rated 69th on PFF’s list last season. Denver, though, believes the 2012 third-round Chiefs pick will be better as a zone-blocker than he was in Kansas City’s power-blocking scheme.
- After Brandon Marshall became the first non-rush linebacker to sign an extension in Denver since Joe Mays in 2012, we also heard Emmanuel Sanders will be the next Denver cog extended.
Broncos’ Von Miller Threatens Holdout
Von Miller is doubling down on his threat to hold out for the 2016 season if he does not get the multi-year contract he is seeking. Moments ago, Miller posted the following to Instagram (sic): 
“I love my Teammates, Coaches, and My Fans but there is “No Chance” I play the 2016 season under the Franchise tag,” Miller wrote.
[RELATED: Broncos Sign Brandon Marshall To Four-Year Extension]
If Miller opts to sit out the 2016 season, the Broncos will only be able to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on him and will not have the exclusive franchise tag at their disposal. Typically, a team that is able to pry a player away on the non-exclusive tag would have to forfeit two first-round picks to the former team. Furthermore, if Miller were to sit out, the compensation price would drop from two first-round picks to a first and a third. At least a few teams would consider forfeiting two first-round choices to land Miller but that field will expand further if the price drops to a first- and third-round choice. Of course, signing Miller in this scenario would still require the forfeiture of valuable picks on top of giving him a $100MM+ deal with significant guarantees.
Earlier this month, word leaked out that Miller turned down a proposed six-year, $114.5MM deal from the Broncos. Of course, when it comes to NFL contracts, it’s the true guarantees and cash flow in the first three years that matter more than anything. While the deal would seem to be more valuable that the one given to Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, the reality is that the contract is not as appealing as it may sound at first.
Of course, Miller gained more ammunition for his cause this week when Fletcher Cox inked a fresh six-year, $103MM deal with the Eagles. The deal carries a hefty average annual value and it also gives him $36.299MM fully guaranteed. On top of that, because of the way the contract is structured, he’s unlikely to see anything less than $55.549MM in total when all is said and done.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Sources: Extension Coming For Emmanuel Sanders
- Given the high-paying extensions awarded to Fletcher Cox, Keenan Allen and Brandon Marshall within the last week, Conor Orr of NFL.com highlighted other notable players who could cash in this summer. Up next might be the Broncos’ Emmanuel Sanders, whom multiple league sources expect to become the next wideout to land an extension, per Orr.
Broncos Notes: Miller, QBs
- First-round rookie Paxton Lynch is on the outside looking in when it comes to the Broncos’ three-man quarterback derby, according to head coach Gary Kubiak. Both Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian are well ahead of the ex-Memphis standout as of now. “I think they’re looking each in the eye throughout the course of the offseason,” Kubiak said of Sanchez and Siemian (via Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com). “Who’s ahead? Who’s [No.] 1? I think those two guys are right there with each other; it’s a very competitive situation. They’re obviously ahead of the young guy. … Those two guys have been very close.”
Latest On Aqib Talib
More than a week after Aqib Talib was shot in Dallas, the specifics of the incident are still shrouded in mystery. The Dallas Police Department is still struggling to gain intel into what happened on the morning of June 6th and few people, if anyone, are talking, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reports (Twitter links). As of this writing, police have not recovered the weapon used the night Talib was shot and there are few or no witnesses. Furthermore, the club where Talib was supposedly frequenting hasn’t confirmed that he was there. 
The five Ws of the ordeal (what/who/where/when/why, for those of you who pursued better majors in college) of the situation are still up in the air, but what we do know is that Talib emerged relatively unscathed. The bullet entered and exited Talib’s leg without hitting any arteries or tearing any ligaments and the cornerback has reported back to the Broncos. Talib is not participating in this week’s minicamp, but if all goes well he may be able to suit up for the start of training camp later this summer.
Details of what transpired could impact Talib and the Broncos in 2016. Needless to say, commissioner Roger Goodell is not crazy about players being linked to gunplay and Talib has a history of running afoul of league policy. Specifically, Talib has a history with weapons and it would appear that Talib was intoxicated on the night/early morning in question. The lax gun laws in Texas probably mean that Talib will not face criminal charges even if the nature of the event was of the Plaxico Burress variety. However, the league office could still take action against the 30-year-old.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Broncos Sign Brandon Marshall To Four-Year Extension
The Broncos have announced the signing of linebacker Brandon Marshall to a four-year, $32MM contract extension that includes $20MM in guarantees and $10MM at signing. Denver now has Marshall under its control through the 2020 season.
[RELATED: Broncos Formally Sign Rookie Paxton Lynch]
The Broncos and Marshall had spent a large chunk of the offseason working on an extension. Prior to today’s accord, Marshall was slated to play out the season on a one-year, $2.533MM restricted free agent tender before hitting the open market. He’ll still earn that salary in 2016 before his extension kicks in the following season.
Marshall finished last season with 102 tackles and made it clear to team management that he was a must-keep player. Last month, PFR’s Sam Robinson analyzed Marshall as an extension candidate and accurately predicted that he would approach, but not top, DeAndre Levy’s four-year, $33.7MM pact with the Lions. The Broncos opted to let Danny Trevathan – last year’s team leader in tackles – leave in free agency for a four-year, $24.5MM deal with Chicago, but they clearly hold Marshall in higher esteem.
With Marshall’s extension in the books, the Broncos will now turn their attention to new deals for fellow stars Von Miller and Emmanuel Sanders. Recently, Broncos GM John Elway confirmed that he is gunning to get contracts hammered out for all three players in the coming weeks.
“The ideal thing would be to get all three of them done (by mid-July). That’s the goal. That would be nice if we could do that,” Elway said.
While things are getting a little bit chippy between Miller and the Broncos, the feeling has been that a new deal for Marshall was only a matter of time. The veteran has always spoken highly of the team and made it known that he wants to play out his career at high altitude.
“I love it here. I love it here, man,” Marshall said recently. “Ever since I got here, in 2013, they’ve treated me like family, even when I was on the practice squad. It just shows, I’m really all about ball, getting better and being with the team. … To stay away, that’s not me. I feel comfortable being here.”
Mike Klis of 9News first reported the deal. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
How Fletcher Cox's Extension Affects Von Miller, Broncos
- The Cox deal is yet another Eagles-inflicted blow to the Broncos, details Mike Klis of 9News. The Eagles hurt the Broncos’ chances to re-sign quarterback Brock Osweiler earlier this offseason when they inked Sam Bradford to a $17.5MM-per-year extension. Now Cox’s contract isn’t doing Denver any favors in its attempt to lock up star pass-rushing linebacker Von Miller, the Super Bowl 50 MVP who has amassed 60 sacks in 72 career regular-season games. The Broncos have until July 15 to sign Miller to a long-term deal. Otherwise, best-case scenario for the club: Miller will play out 2016 under the exclusive franchise tag. There have been rumblings that Miller could sit out the season if the reigning champions don’t meet his long-term demands, however. To this point, the Broncos haven’t been willing to give Miller a non-injury-guaranteed total approaching $60MM for the first three years of the six-year, $114.5MM extension they’ve offered him. The Broncos have instead offered to guarantee nearly $40MM over the first two years, and non-injury guarantees for the third year wouldn’t actually kick in until then. Cox, meanwhile, got $55.2MM in new money in the opening three years of his deal.
How Will Fletcher Cox Deal Affect Von Miller?
- Cox did tremendously well when it comes to the guarantee and bonus structure, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap writes. The Eagles paid a hefty price to extend the defensive tackle and Fitzgerald says the Eagles would have been better off extending him a year ago when the price tag wouldn’t have been as high. Meanwhile, in terms of year-by-year cash, he doesn’t see this deal moving the market for Broncos star Von Miller.
- Mike Florio of PFT believes that Cox’s contract with help Miller in his case with the Broncos. The Broncos were previously able to chalk up deals for Ndamukong Suh and Olivier Vernon to free agency inflation. However, Cox has shown that a defensive lineman can score a similar contract without hitting the open market.
Florio: Von Miller Could Benefit From Sitting Out
- It might be in Von Miller‘s best interest to sit out the majority of next season, writes Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com. The reigning Super Bowl MVP would earn $5.81MM if he sits out until Week 10, and the Broncos would presumably pass on slapping Miller with the franchise tag next offseason. If they did, Miller could sit out again, earning $6.98MM for another seven-game season. In this scenario, Miller would be in line for a 44-percent raise or the quarterback franchise tender for 2018. When all is said and done, the 27-year-old could end up making at least $36MM for 30 games over three seasons.
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Miller Wants $60MM Guaranteed At Signing; Broncos LB Crops Elway Out Of Photo
- Although Von Miller‘s proposed six-year, $114.5MM deal would bring $58.5MM by Year 3 should the Broncos pick up his third-season option a few days after the 2018 league year begins, the All-Pro pass-rusher’s stance remains firm: he wants $60MM fully guaranteed at signing, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports. This protects Miller in the same way Ndamukong Suh‘s $59.5MM in full guarantees did. Denver offered $38.5MM, with an additional $1.3MM in workout bonuses, to its franchise-tagged performer at signing. That falls well short of Suh’s total, although every NFL contract has done so, with Aaron Rodgers‘ failing to exceed $45MM in at-signing guarantees. The Broncos’ offer seems to follow the blueprint the Chiefs laid out with Justin Houston last summer, with the tagged edge defender receiving $32.5MM guaranteed up front, with the carrot of $52.5MM in the first three seasons if the Chiefs trigger his Year 3 option on the third day of the 2017 league year.
- Some of these developments — like the Broncos leaking his turning down the offer — have been viewed as personal affronts for 27-year-old reigning Super Bowl MVP, Renck writes. Look no further than Miller cropping GM John Elway out of an Instagram photo (via Adam Schefter of ESPN.com, on Twitter) that previously featured Miller, Elway DeMarcus Ware, Peyton Manning and Gary Kubiak at the White House. Renck suggests Miller remove himself from the proceedings to avoid further embitterment toward the franchise he will almost certainly still play for in 2016. The sides have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term deal before Miller is forced to play for $14.26MM this season.