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Finding A Fit For RB DeAngelo Williams

July 5th, 2017 at 6:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Two years ago, at the age of 32, DeAngelo Williams started 10 games for the Steelers and produced 11 rushing touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry, and 40 receptions through the air while filling in for Le’Veon Bell, who had been suspended and subsequently injured. In 2016, sidelined for seven games by his own health questions, Williams managed only 3.5 yards per touch on 98 attempts.DeAngelo Williams (Vertical)

Thus far, Williams hasn’t been linked directly linked to any clubs, but he made clear earlier today that he intends to play during the 2017 campaign. It’s possible that he’ll have to wait for an injury to occur before receiving a call, something to which Williams alluded to today. I recently ranked Williams as the third-best free agent back available, behind fellow veterans Chris Johnson and Rashad Jennings.

Williams said today there are four teams he won’t play for, but wouldn’t identify those clubs, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. With the hope that we’re not listing one of those squads, let’s take a look at six teams that could use Williams immediately:

Detroit Lions

Detroit’s 2016 rushing offense was, by almost any measure, putrid. On an NFL-low 350 rushing attempts, the Lions finished 27th in yards per carry, 25th in DVOA, and 31st in adjusted line yards, the latter a measure of a club’s offensive line strength. Detroit attempted to rectify its front five this offseason, swapping out Larry Warford and Riley Reiff for T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner, but the team’s crop of backs has essentially remained stagnant. Getting former second-round pick Ameer Abdullah back from a Lisfranc injury should help matters, and the Lions have praised reserve Dwayne Washington, but the club’s only free agent addition or draft choice in the backfield was former Viking Matt Asiata, who plodded to a 3.3 yards per carry average a season ago. Williams, then, could offer Detroit a bit more dynamic safety net behind its younger runners.

Los Angeles Chargers

Among the 19 running backs that managed at least 200 carries in 2016, Melvin Gordon finished 13th with only 3.93 yards per rush. So although he scored 10 touchdowns on the ground, it stands to reason the former first-round pick could use a breather from time to time. Kenneth Farrow, who served as Gordon’s primary backup last season, posted only 3.2 yards per carry on 60 attempts, while Branden Oliver (who hasn’t seen the field since October 2015), Andre Williams, and Kenjon Barner aren’t exactly an inspiring crop. With Danny Woodhead having left via free agency, the Chargers have a need for a back like Williams, who can succeed in the passing game.

Los Angeles Rams

Like Gordon, Todd Gurley struggled from a lack of team running back depth, as he finished 19th out of 19 on the list linked above with just 3.18 yards per attempt. The Rams offense was a disaster as a whole, ranking 32nd in both pass and rushing DVOA. Los Angeles has seemingly found a fix at left tackle, upgrading from Greg Robinson to Andrew Whitworth, and are now 18th in Pro Football Focus‘ offseason offensive line rankings. Still, when the “running back” with the most carries behind Gurley is Tavon Austin with 28, backups are an issue. The Rams already signed former Cowboy Lance Dunbar to handle third-down work, but Williams would offer a more prototypical skill-set as a reserve.

Miami Dolphins

Jay Ajayi was excellent during his second NFL season, rushing for more than 1,200 yards while ranking seventh in DYAR and finishing third in PFF’s running back grades. But there are certainly reasons to be concerned about Ajayi, and chief among them is the knee issues that led to his draft slide in 2015. Severe knee injuries scared off teams that year, and Ajayi has put a lot of work in during the past four seasons. Between Boise State and Miami, Ajayi has managed 249 carries in three of the past four seasons (including a whopping 347 attempts during his final collegiate campaign). Personally, I’m a fan of backup of Damien Williams, but his lack of production during his three-year NFL tenure may leave the Dolphins looking for an experienced reserve such as DeAngelo Williams.

New York Giants

The Giants regard second-year runner Paul Perkins as a three-down back, but they haven’t added much insurance in the event Perkins doesn’t perform (or gets injured) in 2016. Shaun Draughn and Orleans Darkwa haven’t done much in their limited NFL action, Shane Vereen has proven himself to be a passing game specialist, while fourth-round rookie Wayne Gallman was labeled an impatient runner and compared to journeyman Khiry Robinson in Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com predraft profile. Big Blue’s rushing attack ranked 26th in DVOA a season ago, and doesn’t figure to improve if Perkins doesn’t grow into a No. 1 role. Still, the Giants are the least likely club on this list to bring in Williams or any other veteran.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Williams was an excellent investment for the Steelers, as he provided stability in the club’s backfield (especially in 2015) while earning only $4MM over the life of a two-year contract. He could conceivably play a similar role for Pittsburgh in 2017, but the Steelers have added other factors behind Le’Veon Bell. In addition to signing free agent Knile Davis, Pittsburgh also spent a third-round choice on local product James Conner. Fitzgerald Toussaint is also in the discussion for backup carries after posting 4.1 yards per attempt in 58 touches last year. General manager Kevin Colbert said in March the Steelers weren’t yet closing the door on Williams, but that statement was made before Pittsburgh draft Conner. Williams himself said today he wasn’t ruling out a return to the Steelers.

Extension Candidate: Akiem Hicks

July 4th, 2017 at 8:03pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

As a quality player entering a contract year, Bears lineman Akiem Hicks has a realistic chance of ending up as one of the richest defenders in next winter’s free agent class. While there’s no indication that the Bears have prioritized an extension for Hicks, it’s fair to suggest that an ideal scenario for general manager Ryan Pace would include keeping the five-year veteran in the fold for the long haul.

Akiem Hicks

In March 2016, Hicks’ first trip to free agency, Pace lured him from New England on a two-year, $10MM deal. Hicks entered the NFL in 2012 as a third-round pick of the Saints, who employed Pace at the time. Three years later, New Orleans deemed Hicks expendable, sending him to the Patriots for tight end Michael Hoomanawanui. That proved to be yet another shrewd move by the Pats, with whom Hicks fared well across 13 games in 2015 before departing for a richer payday.

Pace made an astute decision of his own when he signed Hicks, as the 318-pounder thrived last year while taking on more responsibility than he had in either New Orleans or New England. Hicks tied a career high with 16 starts and established new personal bests in snaps (930, which led all Bears defensive linemen), tackles (54), sacks (seven) and forced fumbles (two). Those are impressive traditional numbers, and Hicks also fared well in terms of advanced metrics, as Pro Football Focus ranked his performance a stellar 15th among 127 qualified interior D-linemen last season.

Now, eight months from potentially becoming a free agent again, Hicks is in the market for a new representative, and he seems cognizant that he’s on the verge of a raise.

“I am a free agent that is almost a free agent,” Hicks said last month. “You get it?”

Preventing an unsigned Hicks from leaving Chicago via the franchise tag next winter would cost the club a lofty amount, somewhere in the $17MM neighborhood. With that in mind, when the defensive end hires an agent, it would behoove Pace to reach out to his representative regarding an extension. The question is: What would be a fair offer for the 27-year-old Hicks, who went from a solid lineman from 2012-15, when he combined for 33 starts and 9.5 sacks, to a borderline excellent one last season? Among PFF’s other top 15 interior linemen from last year, several have recently landed contracts, including Calais Campbell (No. 2), Kawann Short (No. 3), Fletcher Cox (No. 5), Damon Harrison (No. 7), Mike Daniels (No. 9) and Malik Jackson (No. 12). Here’s a quick rundown of those deals:

  • Campbell: Four years, $60MM, including $30MM guaranteed (March 2017)
  • Short: Five years, $80MM, including $35MM guaranteed (April 2017)
  • Cox: Six years, $103MM, including $63MM guaranteed (June 2016)
  • Harrison: Five years, $46.25MM, including $24MM guaranteed (March 2016)
  • Daniels: Four years, $42MM, including $12MM guaranteed (December 2015)
  • Jackson: Six years, $90MM, including $42MM guaranteed (March 2016)

At around $10MM per year over a handful of seasons, the Harrison and Daniels contracts look like more reasonable benchmarks than the others for Hicks, though the guaranteed money would likely have to approach Harrison’s total. It’s important to note that the salary cap has risen since those two signed, and it’s only going to continue going up. Both the NFL’s ever-increasing cap and another terrific season would enable Hicks to further make his case for something closer to the pact Campbell landed earlier this offseason. So, having already received one decent-sized payday in his career, it’s possible Hicks will bet on himself this year, go without an extension and try to play his way to Campbell-type money (if not more) by next winter.

Poll: Which 2016 Division Winners Will Miss Playoffs?

July 4th, 2017 at 5:19pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

A year ago at this time, the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals were popular picks to rank among the NFL’s elite teams in 2016. Denver was the reigning Super Bowl champion, after all, while Carolina was coming off a 15-1, conference-winning campaign and Arizona was second to the Panthers in the NFC. Each of those teams won their divisions two years ago, and not only were they unable to repeat that feat in 2016, but all three watched the playoffs from home last winter. They were among a whopping six division-winning clubs from 2015 that failed to qualify for the playoffs last season, joining the Bengals, Redskins and Vikings.

Tom Brady

If the volatility from 2015 to ’16 is any indication, some of the league’s eight division champions from last year are in trouble as the upcoming season approaches. Once again, both Super Bowl representatives won their divisions in 2016, with the Patriots coasting in the AFC East and the Falcons knocking the Panthers from the NFC South throne. Like the Pats and the Falcons, the Chiefs, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Seahawks and Packers are aiming to repeat atop their divisions this season.

Of those teams, the Patriots look as though they’re in the best position to secure their division again. The Bill Belichick– and Tom Brady-led outfit has ruled the AFC East eight consecutive times, and during New England’s latest Lombardi Trophy-winning season, the club was a 14-2 juggernaut that easily led the league in point differential. While Brady’s a year older, set to enter his age-40 season, he hasn’t shown any signs of mortality, and even if he suffers an injury or falls off dramatically in 2017, the Patriots may have a starting-caliber quarterback behind him in Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, there’s also plenty of talent on hand elsewhere on the Pats’ roster, including new additions in wide receiver Brandin Cooks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, defensive lineman Kony Ealy, linebacker David Harris, tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Mike Gillislee.

There might not be any shoo-ins to repeat among the league’s seven other returning division winners, but it’s hard to bet against clubs with franchise quarterbacks. In the cases of the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Seahawks (Russell Wilson) and Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger), there’s little reason to expect anything other than excellence from under center, which makes potential playoff berths more realistic for each. The Cowboys also seem to have an outstanding signal-caller in sophomore Dak Prescott, who was so stunningly great as a fourth-round rookie that he took Tony Romo‘s job and essentially forced the four-time Pro Bowler into retirement.

Kansas City (Alex Smith) and Houston (Tom Savage) aren’t as well off under center, though the Chiefs have done plenty of winning in the regular season since turning to Smith in 2013. But if he and the untested Savage disappoint this year, they have first-rounders behind them in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, respectively. Poor performances or injuries could force either Mahomes or Watson into action, perhaps paving the way for the emergence of a Prescott-like rookie this year in KC or Houston and making another postseason appearance more likely.

While some of these teams look to be in enviable shape at QB, the game’s most important position, things could still go awry. The Panthers had the reigning MVP 12 months ago in Cam Newton, but his play took massive steps backward, as did the team’s, en route to a 6-10 season and a last-place NFC South finish. The likelihood is that some of last year’s division winners will end up in similar situations in 2017, going from playoff teams to bitter disappointments overnight.

Which of last year's division winners will miss the playoffs this season?
Texans 36.19% (2,560 votes)
Chiefs 22.65% (1,602 votes)
Cowboys 13.81% (977 votes)
Falcons 8.12% (574 votes)
Seahawks 7.15% (506 votes)
Steelers 5.17% (366 votes)
Packers 4.41% (312 votes)
Patriots 2.49% (176 votes)
Total Votes: 7,073

Only 10 NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned

July 4th, 2017 at 11:15am CST by Zachary Links

Rookie contracts are no longer a negotiation nightmare for general managers, but some deals take longer than others to come together. When PFR’s Dallas Robinson checked in on unsigned rookies in June, there were a dozen stragglers. Weeks later, we still have ten players without deals, including some very notable names: Mitch Trubisky (Vertical)

First Round

Second Round

Third Round

Nearly 22% of this year’s first round picks are still without contracts and the likely culprit is offset language. No one wants to be this year’s Joey Bosa, but teams don’t want to risk having a holdout situation in training camp either. For what it’s worth, Trubisky says that he’ll be practicing with the Bears no matter what. The 49ers’ situation with Thomas, on the other hand, has the potential to get complicated. The Niners already made a big concession when they agreed to give No. 31 overall pick Reuben Foster guarantees that extend into his fourth year, so they could have a hard time standing their ground with Thomas on something like offset language. Last year, it took the Niners and Joshua Garnett until July 29th to agree to terms. They might have to play the waiting game again with this year’s first round pick from Stanford.

Besides the glut of unsigned first round picks, the list also has one other common thread: the Raiders. Although the Raiders have agreed to terms with six of their draft picks, their top three rookies remain unsigned. The extended talks for Conley, Mlifonwu, and Vanderdoes could be a sign that the Raiders are holding firm on the same issue, but they could also be for entirely different reasons.

In the case of Conley, his legal situation could be holding things up, in addition to the typical offset language issues with first round picks. Vanderdoes is only one of two third round stragglers this year, but as we saw in 2016, negotiations with third rounders can be complicated. That’s because base salaries are usually maxed out for all first- and second-round picks while picks in rounds 4-7 receive the minimum. However, there is no set number for third round picks, which means that there is extra wiggle room.

Photo via Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.

Offset Language

July 4th, 2017 at 10:26am CST by Zachary Links

Since the NFL’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has made rookie contracts fairly regimented, negotiations between teams and draft picks have become smoother than ever, with few – if any – players expected to be unsigned by the time training camp gets underway. Still, ten players have yet to ink their rookie deals, including several first-rounders:

Although we don’t know the inner workings of each negotiation, one factor that continues to play a role in contracts for first-round picks relates to offset language. Over the last several years, only a handful of players in each year have managed to avoid having offsets language written into their deals. In 2015, Marcus Mariota‘s camp haggled with the Titans until the two sides finally reached an accord with partial offset language, a compromise that was not consummated until late July. Last year, Joey Bosa’s holdout dominated headlines until the linebacker inked his deal on August 29th. In most cases, a lack of offsets for a player simply relies on which team drafted him — clubs like the Rams and Jaguars traditionally haven’t pushed to include offsets in contracts for their top picks, even in an era where most other teams around the league do.

Offset language relates to what happens to a player’s salary if he’s cut during the first four years of his career, while he’s still playing on his rookie contract. For the top 15 to 20 picks in the draft, those four-year salaries will be fully guaranteed, even if a player is waived at some point during those four seasons. For example, if a player has $4MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract and is cut, he’ll still be owed that $4MM.

However, if a team has written offset language into the contract, that club can save some money if and when the player signs with a new team. For example, if that player who had $4MM in guaranteed money left on his contract signs with a new club on a $1MM deal, his old team would only be on the hook for $3MM, with the new team making up the difference. If there’s no offset language on that first deal, the old team would continue to be on the hook for the full $4MM, and the player would simply earn an additional $1MM from his new club.

Although the negotiation of offset language might potentially delay a rookie’s signing, the offsets rarely come into play, since few top picks flame out badly enough that they’re released during their first four seasons. And even in those rare instances, if a player has performed poorly enough to be cut in his first few years, he likely won’t sign a lucrative deal elsewhere, so offset language wouldn’t help his old club recover more than perhaps the league minimum.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier post by PFR editor emeritus Luke Adams. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post. 

Poll: Will The Bucs Make The Playoffs?

July 4th, 2017 at 9:09am CST by Zachary Links

In 2007, the Jon Gruden-led Buccaneers won the NFC South with a 9-7 record, but quarterback Jeff Garcia could not get his squad past the Giants in the Wild Card round. In the nine years since, the Bucs have not returned to the postseason. Yup, its been a while since the Bucs have been in the playoffs. DeSean Jackson

This year, the Buccaneers are hoping to snap their skid after making a handful of key roster upgrades. The biggest splash was the addition of DeSean Jackson and the speedy veteran should give Jameis Winston a steady deep ball threat to work with. Last year, Winston pretty much had to make do without Vincent Jackson, so the presence of DJax should represent a major boost for the offense. They say speed doesn’t age well, but the 30-year-old hasn’t really lost a step. In 2016, Jackson led the NFL in yards per reception for the second time in his career as he totaled 56 receptions for 1,005 yards and four touchdowns.

Cameron Brate was a revelation for the Bucs last season. This season, opposing defenses may find themselves in double trouble as rookie O.J. Howard comes into the picture. The Alabama star was widely projected as a top 10 pick coming into the draft, so GM Jason Licht was doing cartwheels when he had the opportunity to snag him at No. 19 overall. At 6’6″, Howard has the size to win almost any jump ball and also has the speed to beat most linebackers across the middle of the field. In a two tight end set with Howard and the 6’5″ Brate, Dirk Koetter‘s Bucs could create one of the league’s biggest matchup nightmares.

On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers have retooled their safety group with the additions of second round pick Justin Evans and former Cowboy J.J. Wilcox. Those two plus the returning Chris Conte should help turn one of the team’s former weaknesses into a strength. It also helps that the Bucs safeties will be sandwiched between standout corners Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes.

Will the Bucs’ offseason moves be enough to propel them to the playoffs in 2017? Cast your vote and back up your decision in the comment section.

Will The Bucs Make The Playoffs This Year?
Yes 63.86% (585 votes)
No 36.14% (331 votes)
Total Votes: 916

The Ravens Need To Sign TE Gary Barnidge

July 3rd, 2017 at 6:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Perhaps no position group has taken as many hits as the Ravens’ tight ends over the past month, as Dennis Pitta suffered another devastating hip injury in early June (which ultimately led to his release and will likely end his career) while athletic backup Darren Waller was hit with a one-year PED suspension last week. With Pitta and Waller out of the picture for 2017, Baltimore is left with five tight ends on its roster: Ben Watson, Maxx Williams, Crockett Gillmore, Nick Boyle, and Ryan Malleck, all of whom come with significant risk.

Watson is entering his age-36 campaign coming off a torn Achilles, but he’s likely to make the Ravens’ roster after accepting a pay reduction earlier this year. Having missed 15 games over the past two seasons, and dealing with back and leg injuries, Gillmore is no bet to be available next year. The same goes for Williams, a former second-round pick who may begin the 2017 campaign on the PUP list, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Boyle, meanwhile, has already been banned twice for PEDs (a third positive test would net him a yearlong suspension, à la Waller), while Malleck is a 2016 undrafted free agent with no game experience.Gary Barnidge (vertical)

Given the amount of question marks among their tight ends, the Ravens need to consider scouring the free agent market for reinforcements. While other players such as Ladarius Green or Jacob Tamme could be on Baltimore’s radar, the most reliable veteran who still remains unsigned is former Brown Gary Barnidge, whom Zrebiec notes (Twitter link) would make for a sensible Ravens target. I didn’t originally list Baltimore as a potential destination for Barnidge when I ran down landing spots for him in May, but given the events of the past month, the Ravens should give Barnidge a call.

While Barnidge could simply serve as insurance for the Ravens, he might also represent improvement over the club’s tight end production from a year ago. While Pitta finished first among tight ends in receptions, and seventh in yards, various advanced metrics indicate he wasn’t all that successful on a rate basis in 2016. Among 46 qualified tight ends, Pitta finished 45th in DYAR and 40th in DVOA (both are metrics from Football Outsiders which measure a receiver’s value). Pro Football Focus was also critical of Pitta’s 2016 play, ranking him 47th among 63 tight ends.

Barnidge, on the other hand, ranked higher than Pitta in all three metrics (15th in DYAR, 13th in DVOA, 25th in PFF’s grades). On a yards per reception basis, Barnidge finished with 11.13 YPR while Pitta managed only 8.48 YPR, second-to-last among tight ends with at least 25 receptions. The 31-year-old Barnidge has also done well on deep passes, long a staple of Baltimore’s offense. On passes that travel more than 20 yards in the air, Barnidge ranked third and 15th in yardage among tight ends in 2015 and 2016, respectively, according to Mark Chichester of Pro Football Focus.

Of course, a tight end is responsible for not only receiving, but blocking, and after losing right tackle Ricky Wagner to free agency, the Ravens can use all the edge blocking help they can get. PFF ranked Baltimore’s offensive line 23rd heading into the 2017 season, specifically noting question marks at right tackle, where James Hurst is now projected to start. Barnidge can aid in that capacity, as PFF graded him as the No. 1 pass-blocking tight end in the league in 2016.Gary Barnidge (Vertical)

Barnidge could also benefit from staying in the AFC North, as none of the clubs in the division besides Baltimore are above-average at defending the tight end. Cleveland, Barnidge’s former team, ranked dead last in DVOA against tight ends last season, allowing an average of 7.2 receptions and 63.4 yards per game (30.2% worse than the NFL mean). Neither the Steelers (13) nor the Bengals (15) could crack the top-10 in DVOA against opposing tight ends, either.

In terms of salary, it’s difficult to believe Barnidge will be able to command much more than a incentive-laden minimum deal, especially given that he hasn’t been signed yet. Even so, adding Barnidge could be difficult for the Ravens, who rank third-to-last in the NFL with only $5.833MM in cap space, per Over the Cap. Baltimore could potentially restructure the contracts of veterans such as Jimmy Smith, Marshal Yanda, or Eric Weddle to create a bit of breathing room if it wants to bring in Barnidge.

Poll: Who Should Browns Start At Quarterback?

July 2nd, 2017 at 7:23pm CST by Sam Robinson

Hue Jackson identified the goal to name a starting quarterback by the Browns’ preseason opener. While that might be ambitious given that the team again brought in multiple new pieces to vie for this job, that date is approaching fast. And Cleveland boasts one of the more NFL’s more interesting quarterback competitions.

The Cody Kessler-vs.-DeShone Kizer-vs.-Brock Osweiler battle brings disparate profiles. While the Browns aren’t exactly in position to challenge for a playoff spot now, they spent an offseason loading up on long-term deals for when they are. So, establishing a quarterback now will be important.

"<strongKessler entered the Browns’ offseason program as the man to beat here. The former USC passer and 2016 third-rounder was thrust into action midway through last season after injuries befell both players in front of him.

Although he obviously did not win any games, going 0-8 as a starter, the 6-foot-1 Kessler fared decently for a player viewed as more of a developmental project. He completed 66 percent of his passes and threw six touchdown passes compared to two interceptions despite the Browns not having much in the way of skill-position depth.

Kizer, though, closed the gap during OTAs and minicamp. The Browns having made a second-round investment in the former Notre Dame signal-caller positions him well in the quarterback-of-the-future discussion. The team is not interested in the 6-4 player sitting just to sit this season, with Jackson saying he will play if he’s ready.

Viewed as relatively raw and coming with the kind of questions his 2017 rookie-QB peers also had, the 21-year-old Kizer may benefit from observing for a bit. But he’s not exactly blocked by a proven player, so Jackson may want to get him reps soon. Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot saw Kizer show superior physical skills during OTAs compared to the other quarterbacks, and QBs coach David Lee said the rookie has a bright NFL future.

"<strongThe obvious wild card here after arriving in one of the weirdest trades in NFL history, Osweiler has impressed thus far. He brings the most experience, even if no action of consequence occurred until his fourth season, but is a polarizing presence after the way the Texans season unfolded.

Osweiler is being paid $16MM this year as part of the agreement with the Texans, and he helped the 2015 Broncos secure home-field advantage en route to their Super Bowl title. But after his Denver audition had peaks and valleys, the 26-year-old passer bombed in Houston, throwing 16 interceptions and limiting the Texans’ offense. Lee is working on refining the 6-7 quarterback’s three-quarters delivery, and Cabot notes he is a viable threat to start in Week 1.

Kessler probably has the best handle on Jackson’s system, with Kizer having a higher upside as of now. One anonymous exec still thinks the Browns will find a way to trade Osweiler before the season. The team tried to do so after acquiring him, making Osweiler’s chances at securing the job interesting. But he also isn’t facing the kind of steep odds most backup-type passers are around the league. Kevin Hogan is also on the team, and Jackson said he would receive first-team reps, but the 2016 fifth-rounder is not likely to be a serious candidate come camp.

So, who will win this job? Did Kessler show enough on a 1-15 team last season to earn another opportunity? Or will Jackson throw Kizer into the fire despite his age and seeming need for development? How much of a chance do you give Osweiler here? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Who will be the Browns' starting quarterback?
Brock Osweiler 46.40% (1,127 votes)
Cody Kessler 30.18% (733 votes)
DeShone Kizer 19.88% (483 votes)
Kevin Hogan 3.54% (86 votes)
Total Votes: 2,429

PFR Originals: 6/25/17 – 7/2/17

July 2nd, 2017 at 3:42pm CST by Sam Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • The Chiefs are the latest team to mount a GM search well into the offseason. PFR’s Zach Links compiled a list of the candidates Kansas City is considering to replace John Dorsey. Some familiar names from past 2017 searches popped up, and the Chiefs have contacted multiple internal candidates to replace Dorsey. The recently fired GM held this title since the beginning of the 2013 offseason.
  • Nick Fairley was dealt a brutal blow recently, and the heart condition the Saints defensive tackle encountered will cost him at least the 2017 season — and maybe the rest of his NFL career. As for the Saints, who re-signed Fairley in March after a productive 2016, PFR’s Dallas Robinson looked at a variety of ways the team can attempt to replace the ailing interior defender. From trades for players like the Jets’ Sheldon Richardson or the Browns’ Desmond Bryant, to the free agent market — where the likes of Jared Odrick and Vince Wilfork still reside — many assistance avenues are mentioned.
  • The Patriots are as of now a runaway favorite to repeat as AFC champions, but after that, a glut of contenders are on roughly the same level. I asked readers who they thought would be the chief challenger to New England this season. As of Sunday afternoon, the Raiders are the clear leader. The Steelers and “other” are in second and third, respectively, with many fans evidently seeing some sleepers I left off as more viable threats than the Chiefs or Texans.
  • Thanks to the fifth-year option, players like Odell Beckham Jr. and Aaron Donald are under team control for two more years at salaries far below market value. I took a look at how this issue is affecting them and other players, such as the Raiders’ Khalil Mack, around the league in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate piece. Weigh in with your thoughts about how these fourth-year players should proceed as training camp nears.
  • The Vikings have a player who is closer to his contract year than the aforementioned superstars, and PFR’s Rory Parks took a look at how an extension for Xavier Rhodes would play out. The 2013 first-round pick is set to play 2017 on a fifth-year option as of now. The Falcons’ recent Desmond Trufant re-up looks to provide reasonable parameters for Minnesota’s talks with Trufant.

Extension Candidate: Xavier Rhodes

July 2nd, 2017 at 9:46am CST by Rory Parks

The Vikings’ defense finished 2016 ninth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), third in yards allowed per game, and sixth in points allowed per game. In short, Minnesota boasted a pretty strong defense, and there is a lot of credit to go around for that performance.

Dec 1, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes (29) during a game at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Cowboys defeated the Vikings 17-15. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Cornerback Xavier Rhodes deserves a great deal of that credit. Rhodes, whom the Vikings selected in the first round of the 2013 draft, turned in the best season of his career in 2016, which earned him his first Pro Bowl nod. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics were fairly kind to his overall effort, as Rhodes graded out as the 29th-best corner in the league out of 111 qualified players, but PFF really loved his performance against the run, where he graded as the top CB in football. Whatever issues he had in coverage he helped to make up for with his five interceptions, one of which he returned 100 yards for a score.

Minnesota picked up Rhodes’ fifth-year option last year, so he is currently under contract through 2017, and he is set to earn a tidy $8.026MM this season. But that doesn’t mean Rhodes wouldn’t be open to a long-term deal, and the Vikings do have a history of signing key players to extensions during contract years. Indeed, we heard back in February that the team was expected to begin negotiating a new contract with Rhodes, and while there have been no public reports of such negotiations, it does not appear that either side has put a deadline on contract talks. As such, it could be that a deal gets hammered out at some point during the season.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry says Desmond Trufant‘s recent extension with the Falcons could serve as a barometer for Rhodes’ negotiations with Minnesota. Trufant, whose total contract value is currently the third-highest in the league among cornerbacks — and who was drafted three picks ahead of Rhodes — pulled down a five-year, $68.75MM deal from Atlanta, including $41.53MM in guaranteed money. In addition to being just about the same age, Trufant and Rhodes are similarly talented players, both solid in coverage and stout against the run, so it would not be a surprise to see Rhodes land a contract that matches or exceeds Trufant’s pact.

Since he became a full-time starter in 2014, Rhodes has also been pretty durable. He started all 16 regular-season contests in 2014 and 2015, and after missing the first two weeks of 2016 with a knee injury, he started and finished the remaining 14 games. The Vikings have about $13.5MM in cap space at the moment (under the Rule of 51), so theoretically they could even front-load a Rhodes extension to give themselves some wiggle room down the road. In any event, expect to see Rhodes and fellow Pro Bowler Harrison Smith sharing Minnesota’s defensive backfield for the next few years.

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