Make-Or-Break Year: Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill may be working with the most talented offensive weapons he’s ever had at his disposal in 2017, and if he wants to remain under center for the Dolphins for the long haul, he will have to make the most of those weapons. Yesterday, we looked at a discussion among ESPN’s AFC East contingent as to whether Miami should stick with Tannehill or start looking for his replacement, and while the consensus is that Tannehill is a solid quarterback whose contract looks more and more like a bargain with each passing year, the ESPN scribes do not appear to have much faith that Tannehill can bring a title to South Beach. Indeed, ESPN’s Bills reporter, Mike Rodak, believes the Dolphins need to begin preparing for their next quarterback now.
And it’s hard to blame him. It took Tannehill five seasons to post a winning record, and his skill-set and statistical output to this point in his career reasonably invoke the old adage that is trotted out for quarterbacks like Jay Cutler and Alex Smith: just good enough to lose.
Of course, Tannehill is not solely responsible for the Dolphins’ mediocre record during his tenure. After all, it’s not as though the team has been stocked with talent that was held back by substandard quarterback play. Rather, the roster has been average at best and Tannehill, whose performance has been average to a little above-average, has not been able to enhance it. But as the talent surrounding him slowly improves, it is fair to question whether Tannehill has enough ability to turn his team into a true championship contender.
What makes a conversation about Tannehill’s long-term future with Miami particularly interesting now is the way his contract is structured. After 2017, the only guaranteed money on Tannehill’s deal is $5.525MM of his 2018 salary that is currently guaranteed for injury and becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2018 league year. That means that, if they really want to, the Dolphins could part ways with Tannehill after this season and the dead cap hit would be fairly minimal while the savings would be significant.
The problem is that Miami does not have a young quarterback on the roster that is pushing for playing time, and free agency is almost never an answer when it comes to quarterbacks. The 2018 rookie class may boast a fair amount of quarterback talent, so if Tannehill struggles in 2017, it would behoove the team to draft a signal-caller in the early rounds of next year’s draft and groom him behind Tannehill for a year or so (Tannehill is under club control through 2020).
So while it would be a surprise to see Tannehill somewhere other than Miami in 2018, the 2017 season will go a long way towards determining his future prospects with the Dolphins.
Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals
In 2016, the Bengals missed the postseason for the first time in the Andy Dalton/A.J. Green era, posting a 6-9-1 record after earning playoff berths each season from 2011-15. Now, Cincinnati could be gunning for one more trip to the postseason under Marvin Lewis, who is entering the 2017 campaign as a lame duck head coach. Armed with a top-10 draft pick for the first time since 2011, the Bengals had offseason work to do on both sides of the ball.
Notable signings:
- Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: Five years, $52.5MM. $12MM guaranteed.
- Brandon LaFell, WR: Two years, $9MM. $3.3MM guaranteed.
- Kevin Minter, LB: One year, $4.25MM. $2.1MM guaranteed.
- Andre Smith, G: One year, $3.25MM. $1.55MM guaranteed.
- Wallace Gilberry, DE: One year, $1.4MM. $300K guaranteed.
- Cedric Peerman, RB: One year, $1.15MM. $100K guaranteed.
- Eric Winston, T: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
- Bene Benwikere, CB: One year, $690K.
Although the Bengals have drafted two more first-round cornerbacks since selecting Dre Kirkpatrick with the 17th overall pick in 2012, their lack of options in the secondary meant Cincinnati still needed to open up their checkbook to retain the Alabama product. Darqueze Dennard has barely played since entering the league in 2014, while William Jackson III missed his entire rookie campaign after tearing a pectoral. With a legal issue hanging over veteran Adam Jones, the Bengals couldn’t afford to let Kirkpatrick — the team’s most reliable option at corner — leave via free agency.
It’s easy to call the Kirkpatrick contract an overpay, as he’s never resembled a true No. 1 corner during his five-year NFL tenure. In 2016, Pro Football Focus graded Kirkpatrick as just the 52nd-best corner among 111 qualifiers, while he’s provided the 20th-most approximate value (Pro Football Reference’s catch-all metric) among cornerbacks since becoming a full-time starter in 2015. Despite that spotty record, Kirkpatrick’s new $10.5MM annual average ranks 11th among corners.
However, as with most Bengals contracts, the deal is more team-friendly than it initially appears. Kirkpatrick received only $12MM in full guarantees, which ranks 25th among cornerbacks, while his guarantee per year ($2.4MM) is only 24th among non-rookie corner accords. Conceivably, Cincinnati could remove itself from Kirkpatrick’s contract as soon as next spring — before he’s due a $3.25MM roster bonus — if he tanks during the 2017 campaign, and the dead money that would accelerate onto the Bengals’ cap following a release in either 2018 or 2019 isn’t ominous. Those scenarios are unlikely, of course, as most Cincinnati extendees play out their pacts.
While Kirkpatrick represented the majority of the Bengals’ free agent outlay, the club also made a value signing on defense with the addition of former Cardinals linebacker Kevin Minter. Only 26 years old, Minter played on at least 85% of Arizona’s defensive snaps in each of the past two seasons, and figures to slot in next to Vontaze Burfict in Cincinnati’s starting lineup. The Bengals made a smart contractual decision with Minter, using a $1.1MM workout bonus — which doesn’t count against the compensatory average per year formula — in order to lower his overall contract value. As Nick Korte of Over the Cap explained earlier this year (Twitter links), that strategy could end up bumping the Bengals’ projected seventh-round compensatory selection to a sixth-rounder, a marginal (but important) win.
On the other side of the ball, Andre Smith is back in a Bengals uniform after a brief one-season layover in Minnesota. Smith, whom Cincinnati originally drafted sixth overall in 2009, won’t be lining up at his usual right tackle position, however, as the Bengals signed him to play guard. We’ll discuss Cincinnati’s offensive line issues a bit later, but the decision to bring in Smith is a risky one on two fronts. First, he’s never played guard in his NFL career, and second, he only managed to appear in four games in 2016 before going down with injury. The Bengals don’t have much high-quality interior depth, so relying on Smith as a starter at an all-new position seems perilous.
Elsewhere on offense, Cincinnati continued to opt for familiarity, re-signing wide receiver Brandon LaFell, running back Cedric Peerman, and offensive tackle Eric Winston to play reserve roles. LaFell, notably, led Bengals pass-catchers in snaps a season ago, but despite the fact that he’ll earn $5MM in 2017, his playtime percentage will almost certainly decrease. First-round rookie John Ross figures to start opposite A.J. Green with Tyler Boyd in the slot, meaning LaFell will be a well-paid fourth receiver at best.
Make-Or-Break Year: Blake Bortles
Quarterback Blake Bortles is under Jaguars control for the next two years, but it’s reasonable to suggest he’s entering the quintessential make-or-break season. The Jaguars decided in May to pick up Bortles’ fifth-year option for 2018, which will cost them upward of $19MM if he plays the season under it, though that’s guaranteed for injury only. That means they’ll be able to end the Bortles experiment next offseason if he struggles through 2017 but emerges with his health intact.
Staying on the field hasn’t been an issue to this point for Bortles, who has appeared in no fewer than 14 games in any of his three seasons and played full slates in each of the previous two years. While Bortles has shown durability, his run-of-the-mill output leaves questions as to whether he’ll end up as Jacksonville’s long-term solution under center. Bortles starred at Central Florida from 2012-13, leading the quarterback-starved Jaguars to use the third overall pick on him in 2014, but he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot in the pros.
At his best, Bortles showed real promise in 2015, his second season, when he fired the NFL’s second-most touchdowns (35, one behind Tom Brady) and amassed the league’s seventh-most passing yards (4,428, on 7.3 yards per attempt). He also averaged an outstanding 6.0 yards per carry and added two more scores on 52 rushes. Bortles’ performance that year came with negatives, namely the league’s fifth-worst completion rate (58.6 percent) and highest interception total (18), but it still looked as if the Jaguars had a legitimate building block on their hands.
The Jags went just 5-11 in 2015, but thanks to Bortles’ progress and an action-packed offseason, the club went into last year as a somewhat popular pick to push for a playoff spot. Instead, both the team and Bortles flopped en route to a 3-13 mark, and the QB was among the main reasons for its awful season. Even though Bortles took a career-low 34 sacks – down from 55 as a rookie and 51 in 2015 – and was once again a threat on the ground (6.2 YPC, three TDs on 58 carries), there was a notable decline in his production as a passer. The 6-foot-5, 232-pounder threw for 23 scores, 12 fewer than he tossed as a sophomore, against 16 INTs, saw his YPA drop over a yard (6.2), and completed under 59 percent of attempts for the third straight year.
Toward the end of their nightmarish 2016, the Jaguars fired head coach Gus Bradley. At the time, general manager Dave Caldwell suggested that Bradley’s successor could pick a different quarterback. But the Jags then tabbed ex-Bradley assistant Doug Marrone as his replacement, and both Marrone and Caldwell’s new superior, executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin, quickly showed confidence in Bortles.
The Coughlin-led Jaguars went to work in the offseason to ensure Bortles would have more at his disposal in his age-25 year than he did in any of his first three campaigns. Jacksonville used its first-round pick (No. 4 overall) on former LSU running back Leonard Fournette, who should add another dimension to an offense that finished a below-average 17th in yards per carry and a far worse 29th in rushing DVOA last season. The Jaguars also reinforced their offensive line, adding veteran bookend Branden Albert and second-round tackle Cam Robinson to a group that already had capable starters in center Brandon Linder, guards Patrick Omameh and A.J. Cann, and right tackle Jermey Parnell.
With Fournette, improved personnel along the line and the established wide receiver trio of Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns returning, it should be harder than ever for Bortles to fail. If he does, the Jaguars would be within reason to cut the cord and go back to the drawing board at the game’s foremost position next offseason. At that point, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith could be among the league’s free agents and the likes of USC’s Sam Darnold, Wyoming’s Josh Allen and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson may offer enticing options in the draft.
Offseason In Review: Tennessee Titans
Even though the Titans extended their playoff drought to eight years in 2016, the team made noticeable progress for the first time in a while. The Titans matched the Texans at 9-7, only finishing behind the AFC South champions because of a tiebreaker, and ranked a division-best 13th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. After his club nearly broke through last year, Titans general manager Jon Robinson spent the offseason making meaningful upgrades on both sides of the ball.
Notable signings:
- Logan Ryan, CB: Three years, $30MM. $12MM guaranteed.
- Sylvester Williams, DT: Three years, $16.5MM. $7.25MM guaranteed.
- Jonathan Cyprien, S: Four years, $25MM. $7MM guaranteed.
- Brynden Trawick, S: Two years, $4.75MM. $3MM guaranteed.
- Eric Decker, WR: One year, $4MM. $2.5MM guaranteed. $1.5MM available via incentives.
- Daren Bates, LB: Three years, $6MM. $1MM guaranteed.
- Karl Klug, DL: Two years, $5MM. $1MM guaranteed. $800K available via incentives.
- Phillip Supernaw, TE: Two years, $3MM. $600K guaranteed.
- Matt Cassel, QB: Two years, $5.25MM. $500K guaranteed.
- Nate Palmer, LB: Two years, $2.3MM. $350K guaranteed.
- Eric Weems, WR: Two years, $2.6MM. $275K guaranteed.
- Tim Lelito, OL: One year, $1MM. $100K guaranteed.
- Demontre Hurst, S: One year, $690K.
Robinson’s most recent splash came last month with the signing of wide receiver Eric Decker, who unexpectedly fell into the Titans’ laps after the rebuilding Jets released him. A shoulder injury limited Decker to three games last season and kept him out of the Jets’ lineup for the final three months of the campaign, but there’s no indication that it’ll hamper him going forward. That means a Tennessee offense which finished 2016 atop the league in red zone touchdown percentage should continue to be a force inside the opposition’s 20-yard line.
The 6-foot-3, 206-pound Decker has been a major threat near the goal line throughout his career, and he’s second only to ex-Jets teammate Brandon Marshall in red zone TD receptions since 2012 (33). The 30-year-old figures to mesh beautifully with Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, who dominated in the red zone with 18 TD passes and no interceptions during his initial two years in the league.
When he signed with the Titans, Decker became the fourth potentially significant passing game weapon Robinson picked up for Mariota this offseason. The executive struck three times in the draft, using high selections on two wideouts – first-rounder Corey Davis and third-rounder Taywan Taylor – and another on tight end Jonnu Smith (Round 3). Of course, the headliner is Davis, who went fifth overall after surpassing 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns in each of the past three seasons at Western Michigan. Interestingly, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com likens Davis to Decker, calling the 6-2, 205-pound rookie a “touchdown juggernaut.”
With Decker, Davis, Rishard Matthews and Taylor serving as the top four in their receiving corps and Smith joining the prolific Delanie Walker at tight end, Mariota has an enviable supply of aerial options on hand. Plus, the dual-threat signal-caller should again be a key contributor to a top-tier rushing attack. DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry and Mariota ran behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive line and led a ground game that finished third in the league in rushing and fourth in yards per carry in 2016. Murray and Henry remain in the fold, as does the Titans’ starting O-line from last year, which is an unfortunate reality for opposing defenses.
Offseason In Review: Arizona Cardinals
Last year, things didn’t exactly go according to plan for the Cardinals as they finished out 7-8-1, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2013. With little salary cap room to work with, it’s not exactly clear if the Cardinals have put themselves in position for a big turnaround.
Notable signings:
- Chandler Jones, LB: Five years, $82.5MM. $21MM guaranteed. Had been assigned franchise tag.
- Jermaine Gresham, TE: Four years, $28MM. $13MM guaranteed.
- Antoine Bethea, S: Three years, $12.75MM. $2MM guaranteed.
- Phil Dawson, K: Two years, $6MM. $1.5MM guaranteed.
- Jarvis Jones, LB: One year, $2.25MM. $1MM guaranteed.
- Karlos Dansby, LB: One year, $2MM. $750K guaranteed.
- A.Q. Shipley, C: Two years, $3.5MM. $725K guaranteed.
- Frostee Rucker, DL: One year, $1.08MM. $80K guaranteed.
- Andre Ellington, RB: One year, $905K. $80K guaranteed.
- Tony Bergstrom, C: One year, minimum salary benefit.
- Blaine Gabbert, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
- Jeremy Ross, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit.
- Aaron Dobson, WR: One year, $615K.
- Jumal Rolle, CB: One year, $615K.
The Cardinals knew they’d have to pony up a massive deal when they acquired Chandler Jones via trade from the Patriots. This year, they applied the franchise tag to Jones but the two sides shook hands on a massive extension just days later. Jones’ new deal makes him the third-highest paid 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL, trailing only Von Miller and Justin Houston in terms of yearly average. When it comes to average guarantees per year, he’s in second place with $6.2MM, ahead of Houston. It wasn’t cheap to lock up Jones, but he is one of the league’s very best edge defenders and the market is only growing for those players. If Jones continues on this trajectory, it will all be worth it for Arizona. 
Considering the Cardinals’ cap situation, their four-year, $28MM deal for tight end Jermaine Gresham was a bit perplexing. Before the free agent market officially opened, I had Gresham ranked as the ninth-best option available. The 28-year-old (29 in June) had 37 catches for 391 yards last year, but he doesn’t offer much in the way of blocking. The good news is that the 29-year-old will only carry a $3.75MM cap number in 2017, but his contract doesn’t look so great after that. In 2018, the Cardinals are saddled with a $7.25MM cap number and releasing him ($9.25MM) isn’t really a viable option. In 2019, they’ll be stuck with $3.5MM if they release Gresham.
Free agent addition Antoine Bethea projects as the Cardinals’ starting strong safety, but he may have to duke it out with the team’s second round pick (more on him later). The soon-to-be 33-year-old did well for himself on this deal and the Cardinals are hoping that he will continue to be an above-average playmaker in the secondary. Bethea has started all 162 games he’s played since entering the league and he has 19 career interceptions to his name.
The Cardinals added two notable free agents to the linebacking group in Karlos Dansby and Jarvis Jones. Dansby returns to the Cardinals after spending the first six years of his career with them, plus the 2013 season. Dansby night not be a top 15 type like he was in 2013 and 2014, but he’s still quite productive even at his advanced age. The linebacker, 36 in November, had upwards of 100 tackles last year and finished out as Pro Football Focus’ 46th best linebacker out of 87 qualified players.
Jones, a former first round pick, has only posted six sacks in four NFL seasons. He recorded a career-high 43 tackles in 2016, however, and started nine games for the Steelers. He has not lived up to his draft status, but he is still a solid run defender and he could still have some untapped potential. With talented veterans in front of him, the Cardinals will only be using Jones on a limited basis, a role that might suit him well.
Not long ago, Andre Ellington was the main rusher in Arizona. Now, the emergence of David Johnson has pushed him down the pecking order. The Cardinals were exploring the idea of moving Ellington to wide receiver this year, but they abandoned that midway through the offseason. It’s still a good bet that Ellington will make the 53-man cut as a reserve behind Johnson.
Poll: Will Darrelle Revis Play In 2017?
Darrelle Revis is currently working out in south Florida with an eye on playing this season. Trouble is, the $6MM owed to him by the Jets comes with offset language, meaning that he’ll effectively be playing for free if he signs for a penny less than $6MM. 
At one point in time, Revis was one of the league’s very best cornerbacks. Unfortunately, that changed during his second stint with the Jets in 2015. In ’15, Revis was solid but unspectacular. The version of Revis that we saw in 2016 could not be counted upon as a regular starter. Throughout the season, there were rumblings that Revis was dogging it and the film seemed to back it up. There were a number of plays where Revis wasn’t going all out to make the tackle and he was routinely getting torched on routes that he should have been able to keep pace with.
Needless to say, no one wants to pay Revis more than $6MM for the 2017 season. Even if a contending team were to lose a starting corner to injury in training camp, it would be hard to see anyone offering more than a few million for the veteran’s services. So, what now? It’s possible that Revis, who has already made a boatload of money in the NFL, will cave and agree to play for free.
Alternatively, he could use a creative workaround to get on the field while still cashing his Jets check. As suggested yesterday by Mike Florio of PFT, Revis could sit out the 2017 regular season and sign with an NFL club just before the start of the playoffs. This way, Revis can earn his $6MM, have a chance at capturing another Super Bowl championship, and audition for his next contract. Revis would also have the added benefit of taking the field in January with fresh legs.
One way or another, do you see Darrelle Revis playing in the NFL in the 2017 season? Click below to cast your vote and back up your position in the comment section.
Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Rams
You only get to make one first impression and the Rams’ Los Angeles debut was less than impressive. The Rams got uneven performances out of rookie quarterback Jared Goff (to put it mildly), finished 4-12, and wound up sacking coach Jeff Fisher before the season was through. Now, the Rams are sharing the L.A. market with another team and they hope to set themselves apart with a better showing in 2017.
Notable signings:
- Trumaine Johnson, CB: One year, $16.742MM. Fully guaranteed. Signed franchise tag.
- Andrew Whitworth, T: Three years, $33.75MM. $15MM guaranteed.
- Robert Woods, WR: Five years, $34MM. $10MM guaranteed.
- Kayvon Webster, CB: Two years, $8MM. $4.25MM guaranteed. $4MM available via incentives.
- Greg Zuerlein, K: Three years, $6.75MM. $2.375MM guaranteed.
- Lance Dunbar, RB: One year, $1.5MM. $1.375MM guaranteed. $1.5MM available via incentives.
- John Sullivan, C: One year, $1MM. $100K guaranteed.
- Nickell Robey-Coleman, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
- Connor Barwin, LB: One year, $3.5MM. $3MM available via incentives.
- Dominique Easley, DT: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
- Ethan Westbrooks, DE: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Last year, the Rams had two standout cornerbacks set to hit the open market and only one franchise tag to use. They opted to retain Trumaine Johnson while allowing Janoris Jenkins to test free agency. The Rams were apparently close to keeping Jenkins, but he ultimately left to sign a big money deal with the Giants. After watching the 2016 season play out, the decision to roll with Johnson over Jenkins doesn’t look so great. Determined to not lose a star cornerback two years in a row, the Rams used the tag on Johnson for the second year in a row, resulting in a hefty one-year, $16.742MM tender. 
Now, the two sides have until July 17th (not July 15th) to hammer out an extension. Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like we will see a new deal struck in the coming days. Unless things change, Johnson will play out the year with the highest yearly salary of any cornerback in the NFL. Johnson graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th-best cornerback last season, indicating that he is starting caliber, but far from elite. Los Angeles would like to tamp down that bloated cap number and lock Johnson up through his prime years, but he seems willing to bet on himself.
The Rams landed this year’s most talented free agent tackle when they signed veteran Andrew Whitworth. A three-year deal with strong cash flow in the first two years may not seem ideal for a 35-year-old, but that’s the cost of doing business when trying to add top offensive tackles. In 2016, PFF rated him as the second-best tackle in the entire NFL and he’s been a Top 5/Top 10 guy for the last five years in a row. The Rams are hoping that the addition of Whitworth will help to give Goff extra time in the pocket, allowing him to make better throws when he’s not under duress. Last year, the Rams finished out with the sixth-worst offensive line in the NFL, according to PFF’s metrics.
Goff will have some new mouths to feed this year, including free agent Robert Woods. Woods made a name for himself in Buffalo as a solid stand-in for Sammy Watkins when he dealt with injury. Now, he’s being counted upon as the WR1 in Los Angeles. Even though he signed a five-year deal, it should be noted that he won’t be long for Los Angeles if he can’t handle his new responsibilities. Woods is due $5MM on the third day of the 2018 league year and nothing is guaranteed for the former Bills complementary target past Year 2.
Finding A Fit For RB DeAngelo Williams
Two years ago, at the age of 32, DeAngelo Williams started 10 games for the Steelers and produced 11 rushing touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry, and 40 receptions through the air while filling in for Le’Veon Bell, who had been suspended and subsequently injured. In 2016, sidelined for seven games by his own health questions, Williams managed only 3.5 yards per touch on 98 attempts.
Thus far, Williams hasn’t been linked directly linked to any clubs, but he made clear earlier today that he intends to play during the 2017 campaign. It’s possible that he’ll have to wait for an injury to occur before receiving a call, something to which Williams alluded to today. I recently ranked Williams as the third-best free agent back available, behind fellow veterans Chris Johnson and Rashad Jennings.
Williams said today there are four teams he won’t play for, but wouldn’t identify those clubs, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. With the hope that we’re not listing one of those squads, let’s take a look at six teams that could use Williams immediately:
Detroit Lions
Detroit’s 2016 rushing offense was, by almost any measure, putrid. On an NFL-low 350 rushing attempts, the Lions finished 27th in yards per carry, 25th in DVOA, and 31st in adjusted line yards, the latter a measure of a club’s offensive line strength. Detroit attempted to rectify its front five this offseason, swapping out Larry Warford and Riley Reiff for T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner, but the team’s crop of backs has essentially remained stagnant. Getting former second-round pick Ameer Abdullah back from a Lisfranc injury should help matters, and the Lions have praised reserve Dwayne Washington, but the club’s only free agent addition or draft choice in the backfield was former Viking Matt Asiata, who plodded to a 3.3 yards per carry average a season ago. Williams, then, could offer Detroit a bit more dynamic safety net behind its younger runners.
Los Angeles Chargers
Among the 19 running backs that managed at least 200 carries in 2016, Melvin Gordon finished 13th with only 3.93 yards per rush. So although he scored 10 touchdowns on the ground, it stands to reason the former first-round pick could use a breather from time to time. Kenneth Farrow, who served as Gordon’s primary backup last season, posted only 3.2 yards per carry on 60 attempts, while Branden Oliver (who hasn’t seen the field since October 2015), Andre Williams, and Kenjon Barner aren’t exactly an inspiring crop. With Danny Woodhead having left via free agency, the Chargers have a need for a back like Williams, who can succeed in the passing game.
Los Angeles Rams
Like Gordon, Todd Gurley struggled from a lack of team running back depth, as he finished 19th out of 19 on the list linked above with just 3.18 yards per attempt. The Rams offense was a disaster as a whole, ranking 32nd in both pass and rushing DVOA. Los Angeles has seemingly found a fix at left tackle, upgrading from Greg Robinson to Andrew Whitworth, and are now 18th in Pro Football Focus‘ offseason offensive line rankings. Still, when the “running back” with the most carries behind Gurley is Tavon Austin with 28, backups are an issue. The Rams already signed former Cowboy Lance Dunbar to handle third-down work, but Williams would offer a more prototypical skill-set as a reserve.
Miami Dolphins
Jay Ajayi was excellent during his second NFL season, rushing for more than 1,200 yards while ranking seventh in DYAR and finishing third in PFF’s running back grades. But there are certainly reasons to be concerned about Ajayi, and chief among them is the knee issues that led to his draft slide in 2015. Severe knee injuries scared off teams that year, and Ajayi has put a lot of work in during the past four seasons. Between Boise State and Miami, Ajayi has managed 249 carries in three of the past four seasons (including a whopping 347 attempts during his final collegiate campaign). Personally, I’m a fan of backup of Damien Williams, but his lack of production during his three-year NFL tenure may leave the Dolphins looking for an experienced reserve such as DeAngelo Williams.
New York Giants
The Giants regard second-year runner Paul Perkins as a three-down back, but they haven’t added much insurance in the event Perkins doesn’t perform (or gets injured) in 2016. Shaun Draughn and Orleans Darkwa haven’t done much in their limited NFL action, Shane Vereen has proven himself to be a passing game specialist, while fourth-round rookie Wayne Gallman was labeled an impatient runner and compared to journeyman Khiry Robinson in Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com predraft profile. Big Blue’s rushing attack ranked 26th in DVOA a season ago, and doesn’t figure to improve if Perkins doesn’t grow into a No. 1 role. Still, the Giants are the least likely club on this list to bring in Williams or any other veteran.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Williams was an excellent investment for the Steelers, as he provided stability in the club’s backfield (especially in 2015) while earning only $4MM over the life of a two-year contract. He could conceivably play a similar role for Pittsburgh in 2017, but the Steelers have added other factors behind Le’Veon Bell. In addition to signing free agent Knile Davis, Pittsburgh also spent a third-round choice on local product James Conner. Fitzgerald Toussaint is also in the discussion for backup carries after posting 4.1 yards per attempt in 58 touches last year. General manager Kevin Colbert said in March the Steelers weren’t yet closing the door on Williams, but that statement was made before Pittsburgh draft Conner. Williams himself said today he wasn’t ruling out a return to the Steelers.
Extension Candidate: Akiem Hicks
As a quality player entering a contract year, Bears lineman Akiem Hicks has a realistic chance of ending up as one of the richest defenders in next winter’s free agent class. While there’s no indication that the Bears have prioritized an extension for Hicks, it’s fair to suggest that an ideal scenario for general manager Ryan Pace would include keeping the five-year veteran in the fold for the long haul.
In March 2016, Hicks’ first trip to free agency, Pace lured him from New England on a two-year, $10MM deal. Hicks entered the NFL in 2012 as a third-round pick of the Saints, who employed Pace at the time. Three years later, New Orleans deemed Hicks expendable, sending him to the Patriots for tight end Michael Hoomanawanui. That proved to be yet another shrewd move by the Pats, with whom Hicks fared well across 13 games in 2015 before departing for a richer payday.
Pace made an astute decision of his own when he signed Hicks, as the 318-pounder thrived last year while taking on more responsibility than he had in either New Orleans or New England. Hicks tied a career high with 16 starts and established new personal bests in snaps (930, which led all Bears defensive linemen), tackles (54), sacks (seven) and forced fumbles (two). Those are impressive traditional numbers, and Hicks also fared well in terms of advanced metrics, as Pro Football Focus ranked his performance a stellar 15th among 127 qualified interior D-linemen last season.
Now, eight months from potentially becoming a free agent again, Hicks is in the market for a new representative, and he seems cognizant that he’s on the verge of a raise.
“I am a free agent that is almost a free agent,” Hicks said last month. “You get it?”
Preventing an unsigned Hicks from leaving Chicago via the franchise tag next winter would cost the club a lofty amount, somewhere in the $17MM neighborhood. With that in mind, when the defensive end hires an agent, it would behoove Pace to reach out to his representative regarding an extension. The question is: What would be a fair offer for the 27-year-old Hicks, who went from a solid lineman from 2012-15, when he combined for 33 starts and 9.5 sacks, to a borderline excellent one last season? Among PFF’s other top 15 interior linemen from last year, several have recently landed contracts, including Calais Campbell (No. 2), Kawann Short (No. 3), Fletcher Cox (No. 5), Damon Harrison (No. 7), Mike Daniels (No. 9) and Malik Jackson (No. 12). Here’s a quick rundown of those deals:
- Campbell: Four years, $60MM, including $30MM guaranteed (March 2017)
- Short: Five years, $80MM, including $35MM guaranteed (April 2017)
- Cox: Six years, $103MM, including $63MM guaranteed (June 2016)
- Harrison: Five years, $46.25MM, including $24MM guaranteed (March 2016)
- Daniels: Four years, $42MM, including $12MM guaranteed (December 2015)
- Jackson: Six years, $90MM, including $42MM guaranteed (March 2016)
At around $10MM per year over a handful of seasons, the Harrison and Daniels contracts look like more reasonable benchmarks than the others for Hicks, though the guaranteed money would likely have to approach Harrison’s total. It’s important to note that the salary cap has risen since those two signed, and it’s only going to continue going up. Both the NFL’s ever-increasing cap and another terrific season would enable Hicks to further make his case for something closer to the pact Campbell landed earlier this offseason. So, having already received one decent-sized payday in his career, it’s possible Hicks will bet on himself this year, go without an extension and try to play his way to Campbell-type money (if not more) by next winter.
Poll: Which 2016 Division Winners Will Miss Playoffs?
A year ago at this time, the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals were popular picks to rank among the NFL’s elite teams in 2016. Denver was the reigning Super Bowl champion, after all, while Carolina was coming off a 15-1, conference-winning campaign and Arizona was second to the Panthers in the NFC. Each of those teams won their divisions two years ago, and not only were they unable to repeat that feat in 2016, but all three watched the playoffs from home last winter. They were among a whopping six division-winning clubs from 2015 that failed to qualify for the playoffs last season, joining the Bengals, Redskins and Vikings.
If the volatility from 2015 to ’16 is any indication, some of the league’s eight division champions from last year are in trouble as the upcoming season approaches. Once again, both Super Bowl representatives won their divisions in 2016, with the Patriots coasting in the AFC East and the Falcons knocking the Panthers from the NFC South throne. Like the Pats and the Falcons, the Chiefs, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Seahawks and Packers are aiming to repeat atop their divisions this season.
Of those teams, the Patriots look as though they’re in the best position to secure their division again. The Bill Belichick– and Tom Brady-led outfit has ruled the AFC East eight consecutive times, and during New England’s latest Lombardi Trophy-winning season, the club was a 14-2 juggernaut that easily led the league in point differential. While Brady’s a year older, set to enter his age-40 season, he hasn’t shown any signs of mortality, and even if he suffers an injury or falls off dramatically in 2017, the Patriots may have a starting-caliber quarterback behind him in Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, there’s also plenty of talent on hand elsewhere on the Pats’ roster, including new additions in wide receiver Brandin Cooks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, defensive lineman Kony Ealy, linebacker David Harris, tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Mike Gillislee.
There might not be any shoo-ins to repeat among the league’s seven other returning division winners, but it’s hard to bet against clubs with franchise quarterbacks. In the cases of the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Seahawks (Russell Wilson) and Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger), there’s little reason to expect anything other than excellence from under center, which makes potential playoff berths more realistic for each. The Cowboys also seem to have an outstanding signal-caller in sophomore Dak Prescott, who was so stunningly great as a fourth-round rookie that he took Tony Romo‘s job and essentially forced the four-time Pro Bowler into retirement.
Kansas City (Alex Smith) and Houston (Tom Savage) aren’t as well off under center, though the Chiefs have done plenty of winning in the regular season since turning to Smith in 2013. But if he and the untested Savage disappoint this year, they have first-rounders behind them in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, respectively. Poor performances or injuries could force either Mahomes or Watson into action, perhaps paving the way for the emergence of a Prescott-like rookie this year in KC or Houston and making another postseason appearance more likely.
While some of these teams look to be in enviable shape at QB, the game’s most important position, things could still go awry. The Panthers had the reigning MVP 12 months ago in Cam Newton, but his play took massive steps backward, as did the team’s, en route to a 6-10 season and a last-place NFC South finish. The likelihood is that some of last year’s division winners will end up in similar situations in 2017, going from playoff teams to bitter disappointments overnight.