PFR Originals News & Rumors

Top Remaining NFL Free Agents: Offense

Any NFL club aiming to seriously upgrade its roster through free agency in June is clearly not adept at personnel management, but small tweaks can still be made as the summer begins. While headliners such as Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin remain unsigned, it’s often lesser-known players that can make incremental differences once the season gets underway.

Using our master list of 2017 free agents, let’s take a look at the best remaining free agents on the offensive side of the ball:

Quarterback

  1. Colin Kaepernick
  2. Christian Ponder
  3. Shaun Hill
  4. Robert Griffin III
  5. Zach Mettenberger

Based on pure talent, Colin Kaepernick is far and away the best free agent quarterback remaining on the board. But the myriad of explanations — or as may label them, excuses — for his inability to land a contract thus far have been well-documented. Concerns about Kaepernick’s political views, his workout regimen, and even his diet have been used as justifications for his never-ending free agent status, and the only club that’s expressed serious interest thus far is the Seahawks, who ultimately passed on the former 49ers signal-caller in favor of Austin Davis.Colin Kaepernick (vertical)

Christian Ponder‘s place as the No. 2 free agent quarterback speaks volumes about the lack of available passers, as the 29-year-old hasn’t attempted a pass since 2014. Still, he’s a former first-round pick with a more successful track record of playing from the pocket than any other QB on this list. Hill, meanwhile, is now 37 years old, but had a decent showing as the Vikings’ opening day starter last season, and was mildly effective as a seven-game starter in 2014.

While Robert Griffin III may possess the largest upside of any free agent quarterback aside from Kaepernick, he simply hasn’t shown the ability to remain on the field for any substantial amount of time. Signed to a two-year contract by the Browns prior to last season, Griffin managed to play in only five total games was subsequently released. His persistent difficulty with reading defenses and staying in the pocket could limit his opportunities.

Running back

  1. Chris Johnson
  2. Rashad Jennings
  3. DeAngelo Williams
  4. Denard Robinson
  5. Bobby Rainey

Chris Johnson‘s 2016 campaign never got off the ground, as injuries limited him to only four games and 95 rushing yards. But the 32-year-old ran for more than 800 yards the year prior, and teams have reportedly reached out to express interest this offseason. The same can’t be said for Rashad Jennings, who is now touring with Dancing With The Stars, but his ability as a third-down back should help him garner interest if he’s serious about continuing his career.DeAngelo Williams (Vertical)

While DWTS wasn’t in the cards for DeAngelo Williams, he is set to make his pro wrestling debut on July 2. It’s unclear if Williams, now 34, is ready to hang up his cleats, but his yards per carry average dropped a full yard in 2016. Denard Robinson and Bobby Rainey, meanwhile, are back-end roster types who will only earn a roster spot based on their receiving ability and special teams prowess.

Running back, clearly, is a young man’s position, and if teams are interested in more youthful players, there are backs with age on their side. Karlos Williams, George Farmer, Tyler Gaffney, Jonathan Grimes, Ronnie Hillman, and Antonio Andrews are all unsigned and age-27 or younger.

Fullback

  1. Jerome Felton
  2. Marcel Reece
  3. Will Johnson
  4. Zach Line
  5. Paul Lasike

While players such as Kyle Juszczyk and Patrick DiMarco landed healthy contracts this offseason, most NFL clubs aren’t deploying a fullback with regularity, lessening the demand for lead blockers such as Jerome Felton. While he, Zach Line, and Paul Lasike may have to wait for an injury to strike before finding a new home, Marcel Reece‘s excellent receiving ability could allow to ink a contract sooner rather than later.

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Community Tailgate: Derek Carr’s Deal

Derek Carr is now the highest-paid player in the NFL…depending on how you look at it. The “new money” average annual value of Carr’s deal gives him $25MM per year, beginning in 2018 when the contract kicks in. That tops Andrew Luck‘s new money yearly average of $24.769MM, giving Carr the mantle by a slim margin of $271K per season. There’s also the matter of cashflow. Luck’s three-year value ($75MM to $67.6MM) and four-year value ($96.125MM to $87.7MM) tops Carr’s. Any way you slice it, Carr probably won’t be at the top for long anyway since Matthew Stafford is on deck for a new deal and the Lions are not hesitant about making him the highest-paid player in the NFLDerek Carr (vertical)

[RELATED: Derek Carr Discusses Extension]

When asked about his new contract at a press conference earlier this week, Carr explained that he structured the deal with his teammates in mind. The Raiders will soon begin extension talks with right guard Gabe Jackson, linebacker Khalil Mack, and (perhaps a little further down the line) wide receiver Amari Cooper. The way the deal is designed, Carr said, should help the Raiders keep all of those key pillars for years to come.

When looking at the fine print, Carr’s deal isn’t exactly the market-pushing deal that the initial reports would have led us to believe. There was speculation that Carr would push the Raiders for larger-than-usual guarantees or perhaps even a set percentage of the yearly salary cap to account for the team’s ever-increasing revenue. Neither one of those things happened and Carr didn’t exactly shatter the glass ceiling for top quarterbacks.

Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap estimates that the quarterback market should really be around $27-$30MM by now rather than $25MM. Because a few QBs like Tom Brady accepted team-friendly deals, the going rate for elite signal callers has not increased at the same rate as the salary cap. Carr’s deal will help out the Raiders and his teammates, but it doesn’t necessarily blaze a trail for his fellow quarterbacks.

Do you like Carr’s decision to structure his deal in a way that suits Oakland? Or do you think the youngster should have pushed for more? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section.

Poll: Who Will Be The Best Top Ten Pick?

This year’s draft took a number of unexpected twists and turns. The surprises started early and the top part of the draft shook out in a way that few expected. Now, we want to know who you think the best player to come out of the top 10 will be. Here’s a refresher on each pick, followed by a poll. We also encourage you to back up your selection in the comments.

  • Browns – Myles Garrett, DE (Texas A&M, No. 1 overall): Heading into the draft, Garrett seemed to be everyone’s consensus No. 1 talent. Despite some rumblings that the Browns could take a certain quarterback at the top of the draft, Cleveland went with convention and took the Texas A&M star. In three seasons in College Station, Garrett recorded 31 sacks and 47 tackles for loss. He also graded as a top-three edge defender during all three of his collegiate campaigns, per the advanced numbers at Pro Football Focus. Unfortunately, Garrett sprained his left foot during practice and that’s a bit worrisome since he had left ankle trouble last season. The good news is that he has been able to play through the pain before and doctors say he should be ready to go in time for training camp. Myles Garrett Browns
  • Bears – Mitch Trubisky, QB (North Carolina, No. 2 overall): Few people saw this one coming. Not only did the Bears take Trubisky without warning, but they moved up from No. 3 to No. 2 in order to secure him. The pick also took free agent addition Mike Glennon by surprise since his $45MM deal led him to believe that he would be the man in Chicago for at least a couple of years. Some say that Trubisky has the potential to blossom into a star. Others say that Trubisky was merely the best signal caller in a class full of unimpressive QBs.
  • 49ers – Solomon Thomas, DT (Stanford, No. 3 overall): Thomas was among the top-ranked players on the 49ers’ board and they received extra draft compensation for taking him. You can’t argue with the value that San Francisco got in the draft night swap, but you’ll have to overlook the size concerns in order to vote for him as the best player to be drafted in the top 10. “Tweener” talk aside, Thomas had 61 total tackles last season – including 14 tackles for a loss – and 8.5 sacks. He now joins an up-and-coming defensive line in SF and the potential is there for him to do great things.
  • Jaguars – Leonard Fournette, RB (LSU, No. 4 overall): Fournette was widely regarded as the best running back in this year’s class and he silenced doubters at the combine with his faster-than-expected 40-yard-dash time. The 6’1″, 230-pound running back averaged an eye-popping 6.5 yards per carry in his final two seasons on campus, making evaluators around the league salivate at his potential.
  • Titans – Corey Davis, WR (Western Michigan, No. 5 overall): The buzz around Davis grew in the weeks leading up to the draft, but this pick still caught some by surprise. The Titans went with the Western Michigan standout with their top selection, even though he had ankle surgery in February. They believe that the 6’3″, 213-pounder will produce at the next level and it’s not hard to see why they have faith in him. Last year, he finished with personal highs in receptions (97), yards (1,500), and scores (19).
  • Jets – Jamal Adams, S (LSU, No. 6 overall): Early on in draft season, it seemed like a coin flip between Adams and Ohio State’s Malik Hooker for the mantle of best safety in the draft. As late April approaches, more and more people in the football world went into Adams’ camp. The Jets had tons of needs on both sides of the ball, but they used the draft as an opportunity to revamp the safety position. Some say that it doesn’t make sense to take a safety early in the draft, but it seems like analysts everywhere are on board with the Jets’ pick.
  • Chargers – Mike Williams, WR (Clemson, No. 7 overall): The NFL now has another wide receiver named Mike Williams. The Bolts could have gone with a defensive upgrade with guys like Hooker and cornerback Marshon Lattimore still on the board, but they chose instead to get Philip Rivers a big target to throw to on the outside. Williams has all the physical tools to succeed, but there are some concerns about his tendency to drop the occasional ball.
  • Panthers – Christian McCaffrey, RB (Stanford, No. 8 overall): Many saw the Panthers taking Fournette with this pick, but once he was off the board, they went to McCaffrey. McCaffrey battled through injury in his final year and still finished out with 1,639 rushing yards. The running back has the ability to make defenders miss and the field vision to break off big runs, but there are some concerns about whether he’ll be able to be an every-down back given his lack of size.
  • Bengals – John Ross, WR (Washington, No. 9 overall): Speed kills and it also pushes you up draft boards. Many expected Ross to be a first round pick, but his selection within the top 10 caught some by surprise. He can torch just about any defender you put in front of him, but it remains to be seen whether he can stay healthy. Ross has suffered a torn ACL and torn meniscus in the past. He also underwent labrum surgery after the combine. If those kinds of ailments are behind him, however, Ross could be a star as he lines up opposite of A.J. Green.
  • Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes, QB (Texas Tech, No. 10 overall): The Chiefs gave up quite a bit to get the No. 10 pick, so they obviously believe Mahomes can blossom into a top-tier quarterback. The former baseball pitcher has a naturally strong arm and also has the wheels to gain yards on the ground when needed.

When all is said and done, who do you think will be the best player out of this year’s top 10? Vote below and defend your pick in the comment section.

Who Will Be The Best Of The Top Ten Picks?
Leonard Fournette 17.40% (287 votes)
Myles Garrett 16.74% (276 votes)
Christian McCaffrey 12.49% (206 votes)
Jamal Adams 11.95% (197 votes)
Mitch Trubisky 11.52% (190 votes)
Solomon Thomas 10.49% (173 votes)
Patrick Mahomes 6.67% (110 votes)
Corey Davis 6.49% (107 votes)
Mike Williams 3.15% (52 votes)
John Ross 3.09% (51 votes)
Total Votes: 1,649

Photo via Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.

Only 12 NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned

The NFL’s contractual bargaining agreement’s language on draft pick contracts ensures that rookie signings are a breeze, so it’s no surprise that most clubs have already locked up their 2017 class. In fact, only 12 of 253 draft choices (roughly 4.7%) are still without a contract. Here’s a look at those players who remain unsigned:

First Round

Second Round

Third Round

Unsurprisingly, the majority of the unsigned draft picks are first-rounders. Players chosen within the top 32 selections, and especially those selected in the top 10, can often exert more leverage in negotiations in order to extricate more favorable terms. Offset language (or lack thereof) or the timing of signing bonus payment — the issue that held up Joey Bosa‘s talks with the Chargers in 2016 — could be on the table.

Other issues could be holding up negotiations between certain players. The Raiders, for example, haven’t signed any of their top three picks, which could indicate a specific contract sticking point that needs to be worked out. Saints offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, meanwhile, is battling a hip issue, and New Orleans wants him to pass a physical before signing. Cornerbacks Gareon Conley (Raiders) and Jourdan Lewis (Cowboys) are each facing legal situations which could be holding up talks.

Poll: Titans’ Playoff Chances

Little has gone right in recent seasons for the Titans, who are mired in an eight-year playoff drought. But after hitting the nine-win mark for the first time since 2011, scoring more points than they allowed (381 to 378) and narrowly missing out on an AFC South title in 2016, the Titans appear to be trending upward and may enter this season with the best roster in the division.

Eric Decker

General manager Jon Robinson has added several notable contributors to the equation since he took the reins in January 2016, with the latest being former Broncos and Jets wide receiver Eric Decker. The Titans signed the veteran red zone threat Sunday, further bolstering an offense that previously nabbed a few pass catchers early in this year’s draft – receiver Corey Davis at No. 5 overall and two third-rounders, wideout Taywan Taylor and tight end Jonnu Smith.

Decker, Davis, Taylor and Smith are part of a unit loaded with skill, as the Marcus Mariota-led attack came into the offseason with prolific tight end Delanie Walker, receivers Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe, and the enviable running back duo of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry already in the fold. Add that to a line which Pro Football Focus ranked as the league’s best last season, and it appears the Titans’ offense is poised to take another step forward after finishing 2016 ninth in DVOA, 11th in total yards and 14th in scoring.

Defensively, Tennessee wasn’t as well off a year ago, placing 24th in DVOA, 20th in yardage and 16th in points. The Titans were particularly woeful against the pass (26th in DVOA, compared to 10th versus the run), so Robinson used the action-packed portions of the offseason to beef up that area of the ‘D’ and give highly regarded coordinator Dick LeBeau more with which to work.

On the first day of free agency in March, the Titans handed lucrative contracts to two of the premier defenders available – former Jaguars safety Jonathan Cyprien and ex-Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan – and then used their other first-rounder (No. 18) on erstwhile USC corner Adoree’ Jackson in April. Although the Titans lost a noteworthy CB in Jason McCourty, whom they released before the draft, it’s inarguable that their secondary looks better than it did last season. Their defensive front could also improve with the signing of ex-Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams, a four-year veteran who’s coming off his first 16-start season and will replace the released Al Woods.

It’s clear that the Titans have brought in an array of enticing talent on both sides of the ball this offseason. At the same time, they haven’t lost any indispensable cogs – only role players such as McCourty, Woods, Anthony Fasano, Kendall Wright, and Valentino Blake, among a few others. There’s a case to be made, then, that Titans are the favorites to take the AFC South, which has been a weak division lately and doesn’t include any surefire playoff teams like the Patriots in the AFC East and the Steelers in the AFC North.

While Tennessee’s division rivals – the Colts, Jaguars and the two-time defending champion Texans – may have also gotten better since the end of last season, the additions the Titans made to an already decent foundation could push them over the top in 2017. Alternatively, a wild-card spot might end up in play for the Mike Mularkey-coached Titans, though earning one of those required more victories than winning the AFC South in each of the previous two years.

Will the Titans end their playoff drought in 2017?
Yes 77.39% (1,051 votes)
No 22.61% (307 votes)
Total Votes: 1,358

Photo courtesy of Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.

Community Tailgate: Jets’ Long-Term QB Solution?

As Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported several days ago, Jets quarterback Christian Hackenberg exceeded expectations in minicamp and has narrowed the gap between himself and presumptive starter Josh McCown. Gang Green, of course, is in full tank mode, and the team wants to give Hackenberg a chance to show what he can do in 2017, even if McCown ultimately opens the season as the starting signal-caller.

Jun 13, 2017; Florham Park, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Christian Hackenberg (5) throws during mini camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

That does not mean, however, that the Jets are married to their Hack for the long haul. As Cimini wrote this morning, New York’s rebuilding plan is centered around its selecting a quarterback from the allegedly QB-rich 2018 draft. Players like USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, and Wyoming’s Josh Allen are generating the most buzz at the moment, though all are underclassmen and may choose to stay in college in 2018. Nonetheless, assuming (as most do) that the Jets will be bad enough in 2017 to have an early pick in next year’s draft, they could have their choice of elite quarterback prospects.

From a prospect standpoint, Hackenberg does not have the same upside as the above-mentioned collegiate passers, so there is plenty of doubt as to whether he can be a legitimate long-term starter in the league. Further complicating matters, as Brian Costello of the New York Post opines, is that it will be difficult to truly evaluate Hackenberg this year because of the fact that he really has no proven pass catcher to throw the ball to now that the team has cut ties with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Costello, like Cimini, believes Hackenberg showed significant improvement this spring, but if he struggles in 2017, it will be hard to argue that he was given a fair shake.

But now we want you to weigh in on this matter. How do you see the Jets’ long-term quarterback situation shaping up? Do you think Hackenberg will seize control of the job, thereby allowing the team to pursue other options in the 2018 draft (which was mentioned as a distinct possibility several weeks ago)? Or do you think Hackenberg will struggle to produce or just not play well enough to convince the Jets that he is the answer under center?

Or maybe you see an entirely different scenario unfolding. Maybe you see the world through green-and-white glasses and think McCown will keep the team in contention this year, which would be a pleasant surprise for Jets fans but which would not help them in their search for a long-term solution at quarterback. Or do you think Bryce Petty will emerge from the shadows and throw his hat in the ring? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

PFR Originals: 6/4/17 – 6/11/17

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff:

  • Jeremy Maclin being an interesting free agent — a wide receiver in his prime on the market in June after three seasons as a No. 1 target — I asked readers where the 29-year-old wideout will play this season. So far, the Bills are the slight consensus choice to be Maclin’s third team. But readers clearly believe a sleeper team could be out there, with “other” currently leading the Ravens — the other team with which Maclin met this week — for the No. 2 spot so far.
  • Joining Maclin as an available wideout in his prime, and one that also posted a 1,000-yard season as recently as 2015 before injuries intervened last season, Eric Decker is soon to become an ex-New York Jet. PFR’s Rory Parks discussed the 30-year-old pass-catcher’s status in our latest Community Tailgate. Two years remain on Decker’s contract, should the Jets find a trade taker.

Community Tailgate: Where Will Eric Decker Play In 2017?

Two talented wide receivers in Jeremy Maclin and Eric Decker are up for grabs, making receiver-needy clubs around the league smack their lips in anticipation. Given that Maclin is a free agent, has visited two clubs, and has been hypothetically linked to others, it’s a little easier to project where he might wind up, and yesterday, we asked our readers to weigh in on that very topic (which you can still do).

Eric Decker (Vertical)

Decker, though, is still under contract with the Jets, which makes it a little more difficult to guess where he will be playing in 2017. New York and Baltimore have engaged in trade discussions concerning Decker, but it is unclear where the two teams stand at this point. It could be that the Ravens, who are one of the two teams that Maclin has visited, prefer Maclin and are waiting on him to make a decision. If he should choose to sign somewhere other than Baltimore, the Ravens could pursue a Decker swap with a little more urgency (although the Ravens would need to restructure Decker’s contract or release/restructure one of their own players in order to fit Decker under the salary cap).

The Jets, too, are probably waiting on Maclin to make a decision, because when Maclin is off the table, Decker becomes the undisputed top wideout available, thereby increasing New York’s leverage in trade talks (although Rich Cimini of ESPN.com believes the Jets are unlikely to get more than a late-round draft choice for Decker regardless of what happens with Maclin).

Decker, a 2010 third-round pick who broke out in Denver from 2012-13, carried his strong production from the Mile High City to New York in his first two years with the Jets. The 6-3, 206-pounder combined for 154 catches, 1,989 yards and 17 touchdowns (including 12 in 2015) over 28 games during those seasons. And before injuries derailed him last September, Decker again looked on track for a big year, catching nine passes for a whopping 194 yards and two scores.

His physical presence, strong hands, and red-zone capabilities would make him an excellent complement to Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman in an otherwise thin receiving corps in Baltimore, and the Lions were also mentioned as a possible destination for Decker last week (although that was more speculation than anything else). Outside of those two clubs, though, we have not heard who else might be interested in Decker’s services.

So we will put the question to you. Where do you think Decker will wind up this year, and why? Let us know in the comment section below.

Poll: Where Will Jeremy Maclin Sign?

Just two years ago, Jeremy Maclin was a coveted UFA after putting together a dominant 2014 season with the Eagles. After two years as the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver, Maclin is a rare June free agent in his prime with upper-echelon credentials at his position.

He’s made multiple trips to the Eastern Time Zone this week, visiting the Bills and Ravens. Both summits lasted for two days, and each concluded with the wideout still unattached. So, where will Maclin end up? It’s clear he has options, but will the former Pro Bowler have to make a large financial sacrifice since many teams’ wideout plans have formed and funds are lower?

The Chiefs made the strange decision to release him after June 1 despite the ability to designate the 29-year-old pass-catcher as a post-June 1 cut prior to that date. Maclin went through some of Kansas City’s OTAs, and although he did not have a good 2016 season, the wideout posted 1,000-yard slates in both 2014 and ’15 and had three years left on a five-year, $55MM deal. The Chiefs moving on from Maclin depletes their wideout situation, leaving the explosive but raw Tyreek Hill and a host of auxiliary-type players in the defending AFC West champions’ receiving stable.

Maclin is coming off a season where a groin injury prevented him from playing in four games and affected his ability in others. He finished with just 536 receiving yards — by far a career-low mark. His penultimate Eagles season (2013) did not end up occurring due to an offseason ACL tear. And Maclin sprained his ankle in the Chiefs’ wild-card win over the Texans in January 2016. So, injuries are part of the equation.

But several teams figure to be interested in signing him despite the late juncture of the release.

The Bills use the league’s most run-centric attack but don’t have much for long-term wideouts on the books after declining Sammy Watkins‘ fifth-year option and seeing Robert Woods defect to the Rams. Both LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor spoke out about a desire to see Maclin come to western New York, and the Bills being Maclin’s first visit obviously puts them in the race. But this is not an offense that features the kind of receiving opportunities Maclin could conceivably have elsewhere, and Buffalo used a second-round pick on Zay Jones.

Baltimore would seem in dire need of another receiver. Both Steve Smith and Kamar Aiken are no longer in the picture, and the team did not draft a wideout or sign an outside free agent. The Ravens, though, have even less cap space than the Bills do — at $6.9MM compared to Buffalo’s $12.6MM. With Mike Wallace and injury-prone Breshad Perriman fronting the group, the Ravens could use the ninth-year player.

ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter reported the Eagles had interest, and the fit would make some sense given Maclin’s history with Doug Pederson in Philadelphia and Kansas City. But Pederson shot down that rumor to some degree by saying the team has no interest “at this time.” Despite Philly signing Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, the team doesn’t have its receiving corps lined up long-term. Jeffery is due for free agency again in 2018, and Smith’s contract has two option years after 2017. Jordan Matthews is also an ’18 UFA.

Other teams could have openings. The Redskins lost both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon but have Terrelle Pryor and a recovering Josh Doctson. The Lions were connected to Anquan Boldin earlier this offseason but already have two well-paid wideouts on the books, with Marvin Jones making $8MM annually and Golden Tate earning $6.2MM per year. The Browns, Rams and 49ers have needs here, but if Maclin is keen on joining another winning team right away, these aren’t the best fits.

Which team do you think will be Maclin’s third NFL employer? Will the McCoy recruitment pay off and give the Bills another weapon, or will the Ravens’ need at the position force the team to make a play here? Will the Eagles end up backtracking and consider Maclin for what would then become a star-studded 2017 corps? And what sleeper teams are out there? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments.

Where Will Jeremy Maclin Sign?
Bills 34.86% (1,050 votes)
Ravens 27.76% (836 votes)
Other 25.40% (765 votes)
Lions 6.21% (187 votes)
Eagles 5.78% (174 votes)
Total Votes: 3,012

PFR Originals: 5/28/17 – 6/4/17

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff: