PFR Originals News & Rumors

Poll: Titans’ Playoff Chances

Little has gone right in recent seasons for the Titans, who are mired in an eight-year playoff drought. But after hitting the nine-win mark for the first time since 2011, scoring more points than they allowed (381 to 378) and narrowly missing out on an AFC South title in 2016, the Titans appear to be trending upward and may enter this season with the best roster in the division.

Eric Decker

General manager Jon Robinson has added several notable contributors to the equation since he took the reins in January 2016, with the latest being former Broncos and Jets wide receiver Eric Decker. The Titans signed the veteran red zone threat Sunday, further bolstering an offense that previously nabbed a few pass catchers early in this year’s draft – receiver Corey Davis at No. 5 overall and two third-rounders, wideout Taywan Taylor and tight end Jonnu Smith.

Decker, Davis, Taylor and Smith are part of a unit loaded with skill, as the Marcus Mariota-led attack came into the offseason with prolific tight end Delanie Walker, receivers Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe, and the enviable running back duo of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry already in the fold. Add that to a line which Pro Football Focus ranked as the league’s best last season, and it appears the Titans’ offense is poised to take another step forward after finishing 2016 ninth in DVOA, 11th in total yards and 14th in scoring.

Defensively, Tennessee wasn’t as well off a year ago, placing 24th in DVOA, 20th in yardage and 16th in points. The Titans were particularly woeful against the pass (26th in DVOA, compared to 10th versus the run), so Robinson used the action-packed portions of the offseason to beef up that area of the ‘D’ and give highly regarded coordinator Dick LeBeau more with which to work.

On the first day of free agency in March, the Titans handed lucrative contracts to two of the premier defenders available – former Jaguars safety Jonathan Cyprien and ex-Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan – and then used their other first-rounder (No. 18) on erstwhile USC corner Adoree’ Jackson in April. Although the Titans lost a noteworthy CB in Jason McCourty, whom they released before the draft, it’s inarguable that their secondary looks better than it did last season. Their defensive front could also improve with the signing of ex-Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams, a four-year veteran who’s coming off his first 16-start season and will replace the released Al Woods.

It’s clear that the Titans have brought in an array of enticing talent on both sides of the ball this offseason. At the same time, they haven’t lost any indispensable cogs – only role players such as McCourty, Woods, Anthony Fasano, Kendall Wright, and Valentino Blake, among a few others. There’s a case to be made, then, that Titans are the favorites to take the AFC South, which has been a weak division lately and doesn’t include any surefire playoff teams like the Patriots in the AFC East and the Steelers in the AFC North.

While Tennessee’s division rivals – the Colts, Jaguars and the two-time defending champion Texans – may have also gotten better since the end of last season, the additions the Titans made to an already decent foundation could push them over the top in 2017. Alternatively, a wild-card spot might end up in play for the Mike Mularkey-coached Titans, though earning one of those required more victories than winning the AFC South in each of the previous two years.

Will the Titans end their playoff drought in 2017?
Yes 77.39% (1,051 votes)
No 22.61% (307 votes)
Total Votes: 1,358

Photo courtesy of Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.

Community Tailgate: Jets’ Long-Term QB Solution?

As Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reported several days ago, Jets quarterback Christian Hackenberg exceeded expectations in minicamp and has narrowed the gap between himself and presumptive starter Josh McCown. Gang Green, of course, is in full tank mode, and the team wants to give Hackenberg a chance to show what he can do in 2017, even if McCown ultimately opens the season as the starting signal-caller.

Jun 13, 2017; Florham Park, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Christian Hackenberg (5) throws during mini camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

That does not mean, however, that the Jets are married to their Hack for the long haul. As Cimini wrote this morning, New York’s rebuilding plan is centered around its selecting a quarterback from the allegedly QB-rich 2018 draft. Players like USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, and Wyoming’s Josh Allen are generating the most buzz at the moment, though all are underclassmen and may choose to stay in college in 2018. Nonetheless, assuming (as most do) that the Jets will be bad enough in 2017 to have an early pick in next year’s draft, they could have their choice of elite quarterback prospects.

From a prospect standpoint, Hackenberg does not have the same upside as the above-mentioned collegiate passers, so there is plenty of doubt as to whether he can be a legitimate long-term starter in the league. Further complicating matters, as Brian Costello of the New York Post opines, is that it will be difficult to truly evaluate Hackenberg this year because of the fact that he really has no proven pass catcher to throw the ball to now that the team has cut ties with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Costello, like Cimini, believes Hackenberg showed significant improvement this spring, but if he struggles in 2017, it will be hard to argue that he was given a fair shake.

But now we want you to weigh in on this matter. How do you see the Jets’ long-term quarterback situation shaping up? Do you think Hackenberg will seize control of the job, thereby allowing the team to pursue other options in the 2018 draft (which was mentioned as a distinct possibility several weeks ago)? Or do you think Hackenberg will struggle to produce or just not play well enough to convince the Jets that he is the answer under center?

Or maybe you see an entirely different scenario unfolding. Maybe you see the world through green-and-white glasses and think McCown will keep the team in contention this year, which would be a pleasant surprise for Jets fans but which would not help them in their search for a long-term solution at quarterback. Or do you think Bryce Petty will emerge from the shadows and throw his hat in the ring? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

PFR Originals: 6/4/17 – 6/11/17

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff:

  • Jeremy Maclin being an interesting free agent — a wide receiver in his prime on the market in June after three seasons as a No. 1 target — I asked readers where the 29-year-old wideout will play this season. So far, the Bills are the slight consensus choice to be Maclin’s third team. But readers clearly believe a sleeper team could be out there, with “other” currently leading the Ravens — the other team with which Maclin met this week — for the No. 2 spot so far.
  • Joining Maclin as an available wideout in his prime, and one that also posted a 1,000-yard season as recently as 2015 before injuries intervened last season, Eric Decker is soon to become an ex-New York Jet. PFR’s Rory Parks discussed the 30-year-old pass-catcher’s status in our latest Community Tailgate. Two years remain on Decker’s contract, should the Jets find a trade taker.

Community Tailgate: Where Will Eric Decker Play In 2017?

Two talented wide receivers in Jeremy Maclin and Eric Decker are up for grabs, making receiver-needy clubs around the league smack their lips in anticipation. Given that Maclin is a free agent, has visited two clubs, and has been hypothetically linked to others, it’s a little easier to project where he might wind up, and yesterday, we asked our readers to weigh in on that very topic (which you can still do).

Eric Decker (Vertical)

Decker, though, is still under contract with the Jets, which makes it a little more difficult to guess where he will be playing in 2017. New York and Baltimore have engaged in trade discussions concerning Decker, but it is unclear where the two teams stand at this point. It could be that the Ravens, who are one of the two teams that Maclin has visited, prefer Maclin and are waiting on him to make a decision. If he should choose to sign somewhere other than Baltimore, the Ravens could pursue a Decker swap with a little more urgency (although the Ravens would need to restructure Decker’s contract or release/restructure one of their own players in order to fit Decker under the salary cap).

The Jets, too, are probably waiting on Maclin to make a decision, because when Maclin is off the table, Decker becomes the undisputed top wideout available, thereby increasing New York’s leverage in trade talks (although Rich Cimini of ESPN.com believes the Jets are unlikely to get more than a late-round draft choice for Decker regardless of what happens with Maclin).

Decker, a 2010 third-round pick who broke out in Denver from 2012-13, carried his strong production from the Mile High City to New York in his first two years with the Jets. The 6-3, 206-pounder combined for 154 catches, 1,989 yards and 17 touchdowns (including 12 in 2015) over 28 games during those seasons. And before injuries derailed him last September, Decker again looked on track for a big year, catching nine passes for a whopping 194 yards and two scores.

His physical presence, strong hands, and red-zone capabilities would make him an excellent complement to Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman in an otherwise thin receiving corps in Baltimore, and the Lions were also mentioned as a possible destination for Decker last week (although that was more speculation than anything else). Outside of those two clubs, though, we have not heard who else might be interested in Decker’s services.

So we will put the question to you. Where do you think Decker will wind up this year, and why? Let us know in the comment section below.

Poll: Where Will Jeremy Maclin Sign?

Just two years ago, Jeremy Maclin was a coveted UFA after putting together a dominant 2014 season with the Eagles. After two years as the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver, Maclin is a rare June free agent in his prime with upper-echelon credentials at his position.

He’s made multiple trips to the Eastern Time Zone this week, visiting the Bills and Ravens. Both summits lasted for two days, and each concluded with the wideout still unattached. So, where will Maclin end up? It’s clear he has options, but will the former Pro Bowler have to make a large financial sacrifice since many teams’ wideout plans have formed and funds are lower?

The Chiefs made the strange decision to release him after June 1 despite the ability to designate the 29-year-old pass-catcher as a post-June 1 cut prior to that date. Maclin went through some of Kansas City’s OTAs, and although he did not have a good 2016 season, the wideout posted 1,000-yard slates in both 2014 and ’15 and had three years left on a five-year, $55MM deal. The Chiefs moving on from Maclin depletes their wideout situation, leaving the explosive but raw Tyreek Hill and a host of auxiliary-type players in the defending AFC West champions’ receiving stable.

Maclin is coming off a season where a groin injury prevented him from playing in four games and affected his ability in others. He finished with just 536 receiving yards — by far a career-low mark. His penultimate Eagles season (2013) did not end up occurring due to an offseason ACL tear. And Maclin sprained his ankle in the Chiefs’ wild-card win over the Texans in January 2016. So, injuries are part of the equation.

But several teams figure to be interested in signing him despite the late juncture of the release.

The Bills use the league’s most run-centric attack but don’t have much for long-term wideouts on the books after declining Sammy Watkins‘ fifth-year option and seeing Robert Woods defect to the Rams. Both LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor spoke out about a desire to see Maclin come to western New York, and the Bills being Maclin’s first visit obviously puts them in the race. But this is not an offense that features the kind of receiving opportunities Maclin could conceivably have elsewhere, and Buffalo used a second-round pick on Zay Jones.

Baltimore would seem in dire need of another receiver. Both Steve Smith and Kamar Aiken are no longer in the picture, and the team did not draft a wideout or sign an outside free agent. The Ravens, though, have even less cap space than the Bills do — at $6.9MM compared to Buffalo’s $12.6MM. With Mike Wallace and injury-prone Breshad Perriman fronting the group, the Ravens could use the ninth-year player.

ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter reported the Eagles had interest, and the fit would make some sense given Maclin’s history with Doug Pederson in Philadelphia and Kansas City. But Pederson shot down that rumor to some degree by saying the team has no interest “at this time.” Despite Philly signing Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, the team doesn’t have its receiving corps lined up long-term. Jeffery is due for free agency again in 2018, and Smith’s contract has two option years after 2017. Jordan Matthews is also an ’18 UFA.

Other teams could have openings. The Redskins lost both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon but have Terrelle Pryor and a recovering Josh Doctson. The Lions were connected to Anquan Boldin earlier this offseason but already have two well-paid wideouts on the books, with Marvin Jones making $8MM annually and Golden Tate earning $6.2MM per year. The Browns, Rams and 49ers have needs here, but if Maclin is keen on joining another winning team right away, these aren’t the best fits.

Which team do you think will be Maclin’s third NFL employer? Will the McCoy recruitment pay off and give the Bills another weapon, or will the Ravens’ need at the position force the team to make a play here? Will the Eagles end up backtracking and consider Maclin for what would then become a star-studded 2017 corps? And what sleeper teams are out there? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments.

Where Will Jeremy Maclin Sign?
Bills 34.86% (1,050 votes)
Ravens 27.76% (836 votes)
Other 25.40% (765 votes)
Lions 6.21% (187 votes)
Eagles 5.78% (174 votes)
Total Votes: 3,012

PFR Originals: 5/28/17 – 6/4/17

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff:

Extension Candidate: Kam Chancellor

Major changes could soon be on the way for Seattle’s star-studded secondary, a staple during the team’s run of five straight double-digit win seasons and an integral part of its 13-3, Super Bowl-winning 2013 campaign.

Cornerback Richard Sherman and the safety tandem of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor have consistently been the best players in Seattle’s famed Legion of Boom defensive backfield throughout the club’s half-decade of excellence, but the futures of each have either come into question recently or will over the next year. Sherman has been the subject of trade rumors of late and is reportedly at the center of a rift with key members of the organization; Thomas considered retirement after a broken tibia ended his season last December; and Chancellor is scheduled to become a free agent in a little under 10 months.

Kam Chancellor

With both Sherman and Thomas signed through 2018, determining what to do with Chancellor will be general manager John Schneider‘s most pressing matter leading up to next offseason. The strong safety is set to wrap up a four-year, $28MM contract – a deal that led to earlier disharmony between him and the Seahawks. Chancellor, seeking a raise back in 2015, held out through the summer and didn’t return to the team until Week 3 of the season. That came after the Seahawks refused to upgrade Chancellor’s contract and even went so far as to dock him upward of $1MM for the time he missed.

Whatever ill will may have existed between the two sides faded, though, as Chancellor actually expressed happiness with his situation last June. Chancellor then went on to rack up 85 tackles and two interceptions over 12 games in an injury-shortened season, and though he went without a Pro Bowl nod for the first time since 2012, he did rank as Pro Football Focus’ third-best safety among 90 qualifiers. Since then, head coach Pete Carroll has suggested that the Seahawks would like to extend Chancellor, and Schneider seemed to imply the same in an interview with KJR-AM in Seattle earlier this month.

“We have several guys that we will get to,” said Schneider (via the Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta). “We want to be able to take care of our team and he’s obviously a huge part of that.”

If the two sides do discuss an extension, the four-time Pro Bowler and two-time second-team All-Pro will seek elite money relative to his position. Chancellor, who already paces all strong safeties in cap hit (~$8.04MM) and base salary ($6.8MM), saw a similarly aged star at his position – the Dolphins’ Reshad Jones – cash in earlier this offseason. Jones, despite having missed 10 games in 2016, landed a four-year, $48MM extension with just under $20MM fully guaranteed in March.

Both Chancellor and Jones were fifth-round picks in the 2010 draft, and they’ve turned into top-caliber defensive backs with similar traditional numbers since becoming starters as NFL sophomores. Dating back to 2011, Chancellor has started in all 84 appearances, averaged 6.87 tackles per game, and totaled 12 interceptions and seven forced fumbles. Jones has started in all 78 outings over the same span, piling up fewer tackles (5.54 per game) but notching more picks (15) and returning three for touchdowns. The Dolphin also has a clear edge in sacks (eight to one), but he has forced five fewer fumbles (three).

Whether Chancellor is better than Jones is up for debate. It’s inarguable, though, that Chancellor is a premier safety who has a case for a Jones-type payday. However, forking over that type of cash to a player on the cusp of his 30s – one who hasn’t played a full season since 2013 – might give the Seahawks pause. With Sherman and Thomas also nearing their 30s and potentially their own trips to the open market, Schneider is going to have to decide soon which (if any) to commit to for the long haul. It seems unrealistic to expect all three to remain in Seattle on huge contracts as they continue to age, which means the clock is likely ticking on the team’s iconic secondary.

Poll: Highest-Impact Rookie Quarterback?

Of the 15 quarterbacks selected in last year’s draft, seven ended up starting at least one regular-season game in 2016. The Rams’ Jared Goff and the Eagles’ Carson Wentz comprised the top two picks of the draft, but it was Cowboys fourth-round signal-caller Dak Prescott, the 135th overall choice, who ultimately emerged as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and the face of a 13-3 team.

When the Cowboys drafted Prescott, there was little expectation he’d garner significant playing time right away, let alone thrive from the get-go, with Tony Romo on the roster. But debilitating summer injuries to Romo and backup Kellen Moore opened the door for Prescott, who’s now firmly entrenched under center in Dallas. Romo, realizing he wasn’t going to start again for the Cowboys, is now working for CBS.

Deshaun Watson Texans (vertical)

While it’s hard to imagine any rookie quarterback from this year’s 10-man class bursting on the scene in Prescott-like fashion, it stands to reason at least some will get opportunities to do so. Like last year, three passers went in the first round of the 2017 draft, though immediate playing time isn’t a guarantee for any. For now, Mitch Trubisky (No. 2 overall, Bears), Patrick Mahomes (No. 10, Chiefs) and Deshaun Watson (No. 12, Texans) are in understudy roles.

Trubisky, a one-year starter at North Carolina for whom Chicago somewhat controversially traded up a spot to select, reportedly won’t see the field as a rookie unless free agent investment Mike Glennon flops. Considering Glennon previously held a starting job in Tampa Bay but didn’t do enough to keep it, he very well could struggle enough for Trubisky to grab the reins in 2017.

Watson might also take the helm sooner than later, as the ex-Clemson national championship winner whom the Texans traded up 13 spots to draft is behind a veteran, Tom Savage, who’s almost completely untested. Given that the Texans have sullied quality rosters with subpar quarterbacks in recent seasons, it could behoove them to plug in Watson if Savage, he of two career starts and zero touchdown passes, looks like another Brock Osweiler this year.

DeShone Kizer

An early path to playing time appears less clear for Mahomes, even though Kansas City paid a high price to go up 17 places to secure him. At the moment, the ex-Texas Tech gunslinger looks like a good bet to red shirt 2017 behind Alex Smith as the Chiefs take at least one more kick at the Super Bowl can with the steady (albeit non-elite) veteran at the helm.

Perhaps more than any other QB in this year’s class, Browns second-rounder DeShone Kizer stands out as someone who looks destined to amass playing time as a rookie. The 52nd pick and former Notre Dame dual threat has impressed in the very early going in Cleveland. Moreover, his main competitors for the Browns’ open starting job, Osweiler and Cody Kessler, aren’t exactly Otto Graham and Bernie Kosar.

As Prescott and 2012 third-rounder Russell Wilson have shown in the past half-decade, a quarterback doesn’t necessarily have to come off the board at the top of the draft to star right away. That’s surely heartening to the Giants’ Davis Webb (third round, No. 87), the 49ers’ C.J. Beathard (third round, No. 104), the Steelers’ Joshua Dobbs (fourth round, No. 135), the Bills’ Nathan Peterman (fifth round, No. 171), the Lions’ Brad Kaaya (sixth round, No. 215) and the Broncos’ Chad Kelly (seventh round, No. 253). Barring injuries, though, Webb, Dobbs and Kaaya have virtually no chance to earn starting roles at any point in 2017, as each is behind an established veteran. On the other hand, there’s no Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger or Matthew Stafford on any of the rosters of the 49ers, Bills and Broncos, which could give Beathard, Peterman and Kelly a glimmer of hope. Still, for various reasons, all three look like major long shots to break out as rookies. Then again, the same could’ve been said about Prescott 12 months ago.

Which rookie QB will make biggest impact?
Deshaun Watson 43.94% (1,478 votes)
DeShone Kizer 17.27% (581 votes)
Mitch Trubisky 10.43% (351 votes)
Patrick Mahomes 6.06% (204 votes)
Nathan Peterman 5.41% (182 votes)
C.J. Beathard 5.08% (171 votes)
Chad Kelly 4.40% (148 votes)
Joshua Dobbs 3.27% (110 votes)
Davis Webb 2.08% (70 votes)
Brad Kaaya 2.05% (69 votes)
Total Votes: 3,364

Photos via USA Today Sports Images and Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.

PFR Originals: 5/21/17 – 5/28/17

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Checking In On Top FAs Still Available

Last week, we checked in on the top cornerbacks still available and discussed the latest news as to each of those players. Today, we’ll check in on three more big-name free agents who are still without a 2017 employer (Darrelle Revis would be included in this post, but in addition to last week’s cornerback article, we also discussed Revis’ market in two separate posts this past week).

Perry Riley (vertical)

We start with Perry Riley, who quietly put together a very nice season with the Raiders in 2016, ranking as the 15th-best linebacker in the league according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics. In 11 games for Oakland — he did not sign with the club until October — he posted 48 total tackles, two forced fumbles, and one pass deflection. Riley spent the first six years of his career with the Redskins, and he was a solid starter for much of that time. Now 29, it is a bit surprising that we have not heard more reports on Riley, as only the Raiders have expressed any public interest in his services. We heard prior to free agency that the Raiders were trying to get a new deal done with Riley, and just last week we learned that negotiations between the two sides progressed reasonably well. However, Riley and the Raiders could not come to terms, and while the team is still in the market for a middle linebacker, it sounds as if it is prepared to move on. The guess here, though, is that Riley will ultimately return to the Raiders, as the club’s middle linebacker position is arguably its weakest. The Raiders signed Jelani Jenkins this offseason, and they also drafted Wake Forest’s Marquel Lee in the fifth round of this year’s draft, but they can hardly expect either of them to be difference-makers (Jenkins, in fact, graded out as the worst full-time linebacker in the league last season per PFF and will likely only appear in sub-packages). As such, a reunion with Riley just makes too much sense.

Outside of Riley, Ryan Clady is the only member of our 2017 list of top 50 free agents to remain unsigned, and like Riley, Clady has not generated a great deal of interest on the open market. The Seahawks are the only team to have publicly reached out to Clady, and while the 30-year-old tackle (31 in September) visited Seattle in March, he left town without a contract. At his peak, Clady was one of the premier left tackles in the game, but injuries have derailed the career of the four-time Pro Bowler, as he has appeared in just 27 of a possible 64 regular-season games since 2013. He spent the first seven years of his career with the Broncos before signing with the Jets last season, but he played in only nine games (eight starts) for Gang Green before suffering a season-ending rotator cuff injury, and the club ultimately decided not to exercise his 2017 option. While no one can rely on him to serve as a starting-caliber left tackle for a full season at this point, it’s hard to imagine his not getting a chance to crack another tackle rotation this summer. Outside of the Seahawks, the Ravens may be a potential landing spot, as Baltimore lost starting right tackle Ricky Wagner this offseason and may prefer to keep guards Alex Lewis and Marshal Yanda on the interior of the line.

Nick Mangold (Vertical)

Speaking of the Ravens, Baltimore has been connected to another former Jet, Nick Mangold, this offseason. In addition to a potential right tackle vacancy, the Ravens also have a hole at center, and Mangold could represent a quality stopgap solution in that regard. The two sides met early last month, and the Ravens — unlike some other teams, who believe Mangold’s health makes him better-suited to a guard spot at this stage of his career — are comfortable with Mangold’s medicals, but compensation appears to be the obstacle at this point. Assuming Mangold is healthy, he would be a perfect fit in Baltimore. The team is apparently comfortable playing Lewis at right tackle, but signing Mangold would allow John Urschel, Ryan Jensen, and rookie Nico Siragusa to compete for the starting left guard spot and create solid depth throughout the rest of the rotation. Should the Ravens fail to sign a right tackle and/or a center, three of their starting offensive linemen would be mid-round draft choices with little to no track record at the professional level. Mangold has also drawn interest from the Giants, but with Weston Richburg entrenched at center, and with Justin Pugh and John Jerry on either side of him, it’s unclear how Mangold would fit in with Big Blue.