Only 10 NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned
Rookie contracts are no longer a negotiation nightmare for general managers, but some deals take longer than others to come together. When PFR’s Dallas Robinson checked in on unsigned rookies in June, there were a dozen stragglers. Weeks later, we still have ten players without deals, including some very notable names: 
First Round
- 1-2: Mitch Trubisky, QB (Bears)
- 1-3: Solomon Thomas, DL (49ers)
- 1-5: Corey Davis, WR (Titans)
- 1-6: Jamal Adams, S (Jets)
- 1-10: Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs)
- 1-24: Gareon Conley, CB (Raiders)
- 1-25: Jabrill Peppers, S (Browns)
Second Round
- 2-56: Obi Melifonwu, S (Raiders)
Third Round
- 3-88: Eddie Vanderdoes, DT (Raiders)
- 3-93: Montravius Adams, DT (Packers)
Nearly 22% of this year’s first round picks are still without contracts and the likely culprit is offset language. No one wants to be this year’s Joey Bosa, but teams don’t want to risk having a holdout situation in training camp either. For what it’s worth, Trubisky says that he’ll be practicing with the Bears no matter what. The 49ers’ situation with Thomas, on the other hand, has the potential to get complicated. The Niners already made a big concession when they agreed to give No. 31 overall pick Reuben Foster guarantees that extend into his fourth year, so they could have a hard time standing their ground with Thomas on something like offset language. Last year, it took the Niners and Joshua Garnett until July 29th to agree to terms. They might have to play the waiting game again with this year’s first round pick from Stanford.
Besides the glut of unsigned first round picks, the list also has one other common thread: the Raiders. Although the Raiders have agreed to terms with six of their draft picks, their top three rookies remain unsigned. The extended talks for Conley, Mlifonwu, and Vanderdoes could be a sign that the Raiders are holding firm on the same issue, but they could also be for entirely different reasons.
In the case of Conley, his legal situation could be holding things up, in addition to the typical offset language issues with first round picks. Vanderdoes is only one of two third round stragglers this year, but as we saw in 2016, negotiations with third rounders can be complicated. That’s because base salaries are usually maxed out for all first- and second-round picks while picks in rounds 4-7 receive the minimum. However, there is no set number for third round picks, which means that there is extra wiggle room.
Photo via Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.
Offset Language
Since the NFL’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has made rookie contracts fairly regimented, negotiations between teams and draft picks have become smoother than ever, with few – if any – players expected to be unsigned by the time training camp gets underway. Still, ten players have yet to ink their rookie deals, including several first-rounders:
- 1-2: Mitch Trubisky, QB (Bears)
- 1-3: Solomon Thomas, DL (49ers)
- 1-5: Corey Davis, WR (Titans)
- 1-6: Jamal Adams, S (Jets)
- 1-10: Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs)
- 1-24: Gareon Conley, CB (Raiders)
- 1-25: Jabrill Peppers, S (Browns)
Although we don’t know the inner workings of each negotiation, one factor that continues to play a role in contracts for first-round picks relates to offset language. Over the last several years, only a handful of players in each year have managed to avoid having offsets language written into their deals. In 2015, Marcus Mariota‘s camp haggled with the Titans until the two sides finally reached an accord with partial offset language, a compromise that was not consummated until late July. Last year, Joey Bosa’s holdout dominated headlines until the linebacker inked his deal on August 29th. In most cases, a lack of offsets for a player simply relies on which team drafted him — clubs like the Rams and Jaguars traditionally haven’t pushed to include offsets in contracts for their top picks, even in an era where most other teams around the league do.
Offset language relates to what happens to a player’s salary if he’s cut during the first four years of his career, while he’s still playing on his rookie contract. For the top 15 to 20 picks in the draft, those four-year salaries will be fully guaranteed, even if a player is waived at some point during those four seasons. For example, if a player has $4MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract and is cut, he’ll still be owed that $4MM.
However, if a team has written offset language into the contract, that club can save some money if and when the player signs with a new team. For example, if that player who had $4MM in guaranteed money left on his contract signs with a new club on a $1MM deal, his old team would only be on the hook for $3MM, with the new team making up the difference. If there’s no offset language on that first deal, the old team would continue to be on the hook for the full $4MM, and the player would simply earn an additional $1MM from his new club.
Although the negotiation of offset language might potentially delay a rookie’s signing, the offsets rarely come into play, since few top picks flame out badly enough that they’re released during their first four seasons. And even in those rare instances, if a player has performed poorly enough to be cut in his first few years, he likely won’t sign a lucrative deal elsewhere, so offset language wouldn’t help his old club recover more than perhaps the league minimum.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier post by PFR editor emeritus Luke Adams. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.
Poll: Will The Bucs Make The Playoffs?
In 2007, the Jon Gruden-led Buccaneers won the NFC South with a 9-7 record, but quarterback Jeff Garcia could not get his squad past the Giants in the Wild Card round. In the nine years since, the Bucs have not returned to the postseason. Yup, its been a while since the Bucs have been in the playoffs. 
This year, the Buccaneers are hoping to snap their skid after making a handful of key roster upgrades. The biggest splash was the addition of DeSean Jackson and the speedy veteran should give Jameis Winston a steady deep ball threat to work with. Last year, Winston pretty much had to make do without Vincent Jackson, so the presence of DJax should represent a major boost for the offense. They say speed doesn’t age well, but the 30-year-old hasn’t really lost a step. In 2016, Jackson led the NFL in yards per reception for the second time in his career as he totaled 56 receptions for 1,005 yards and four touchdowns.
Cameron Brate was a revelation for the Bucs last season. This season, opposing defenses may find themselves in double trouble as rookie O.J. Howard comes into the picture. The Alabama star was widely projected as a top 10 pick coming into the draft, so GM Jason Licht was doing cartwheels when he had the opportunity to snag him at No. 19 overall. At 6’6″, Howard has the size to win almost any jump ball and also has the speed to beat most linebackers across the middle of the field. In a two tight end set with Howard and the 6’5″ Brate, Dirk Koetter‘s Bucs could create one of the league’s biggest matchup nightmares.
On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers have retooled their safety group with the additions of second round pick Justin Evans and former Cowboy J.J. Wilcox. Those two plus the returning Chris Conte should help turn one of the team’s former weaknesses into a strength. It also helps that the Bucs safeties will be sandwiched between standout corners Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes.
Will the Bucs’ offseason moves be enough to propel them to the playoffs in 2017? Cast your vote and back up your decision in the comment section.
The Ravens Need To Sign TE Gary Barnidge
Perhaps no position group has taken as many hits as the Ravens’ tight ends over the past month, as Dennis Pitta suffered another devastating hip injury in early June (which ultimately led to his release and will likely end his career) while athletic backup Darren Waller was hit with a one-year PED suspension last week. With Pitta and Waller out of the picture for 2017, Baltimore is left with five tight ends on its roster: Ben Watson, Maxx Williams, Crockett Gillmore, Nick Boyle, and Ryan Malleck, all of whom come with significant risk.
Watson is entering his age-36 campaign coming off a torn Achilles, but he’s likely to make the Ravens’ roster after accepting a pay reduction earlier this year. Having missed 15 games over the past two seasons, and dealing with back and leg injuries, Gillmore is no bet to be available next year. The same goes for Williams, a former second-round pick who may begin the 2017 campaign on the PUP list, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Boyle, meanwhile, has already been banned twice for PEDs (a third positive test would net him a yearlong suspension, à la Waller), while Malleck is a 2016 undrafted free agent with no game experience.
Given the amount of question marks among their tight ends, the Ravens need to consider scouring the free agent market for reinforcements. While other players such as Ladarius Green or Jacob Tamme could be on Baltimore’s radar, the most reliable veteran who still remains unsigned is former Brown Gary Barnidge, whom Zrebiec notes (Twitter link) would make for a sensible Ravens target. I didn’t originally list Baltimore as a potential destination for Barnidge when I ran down landing spots for him in May, but given the events of the past month, the Ravens should give Barnidge a call.
While Barnidge could simply serve as insurance for the Ravens, he might also represent improvement over the club’s tight end production from a year ago. While Pitta finished first among tight ends in receptions, and seventh in yards, various advanced metrics indicate he wasn’t all that successful on a rate basis in 2016. Among 46 qualified tight ends, Pitta finished 45th in DYAR and 40th in DVOA (both are metrics from Football Outsiders which measure a receiver’s value). Pro Football Focus was also critical of Pitta’s 2016 play, ranking him 47th among 63 tight ends.
Barnidge, on the other hand, ranked higher than Pitta in all three metrics (15th in DYAR, 13th in DVOA, 25th in PFF’s grades). On a yards per reception basis, Barnidge finished with 11.13 YPR while Pitta managed only 8.48 YPR, second-to-last among tight ends with at least 25 receptions. The 31-year-old Barnidge has also done well on deep passes, long a staple of Baltimore’s offense. On passes that travel more than 20 yards in the air, Barnidge ranked third and 15th in yardage among tight ends in 2015 and 2016, respectively, according to Mark Chichester of Pro Football Focus.
Of course, a tight end is responsible for not only receiving, but blocking, and after losing right tackle Ricky Wagner to free agency, the Ravens can use all the edge blocking help they can get. PFF ranked Baltimore’s offensive line 23rd heading into the 2017 season, specifically noting question marks at right tackle, where James Hurst is now projected to start. Barnidge can aid in that capacity, as PFF graded him as the No. 1 pass-blocking tight end in the league in 2016.
Barnidge could also benefit from staying in the AFC North, as none of the clubs in the division besides Baltimore are above-average at defending the tight end. Cleveland, Barnidge’s former team, ranked dead last in DVOA against tight ends last season, allowing an average of 7.2 receptions and 63.4 yards per game (30.2% worse than the NFL mean). Neither the Steelers (13) nor the Bengals (15) could crack the top-10 in DVOA against opposing tight ends, either.
In terms of salary, it’s difficult to believe Barnidge will be able to command much more than a incentive-laden minimum deal, especially given that he hasn’t been signed yet. Even so, adding Barnidge could be difficult for the Ravens, who rank third-to-last in the NFL with only $5.833MM in cap space, per Over the Cap. Baltimore could potentially restructure the contracts of veterans such as Jimmy Smith, Marshal Yanda, or Eric Weddle to create a bit of breathing room if it wants to bring in Barnidge.
Poll: Who Should Browns Start At Quarterback?
Hue Jackson identified the goal to name a starting quarterback by the Browns’ preseason opener. While that might be ambitious given that the team again brought in multiple new pieces to vie for this job, that date is approaching fast. And Cleveland boasts one of the more NFL’s more interesting quarterback competitions.
The Cody Kessler-vs.-DeShone Kizer-vs.-Brock Osweiler battle brings disparate profiles. While the Browns aren’t exactly in position to challenge for a playoff spot now, they spent an offseason loading up on long-term deals for when they are. So, establishing a quarterback now will be important.
Kessler entered the Browns’ offseason program as the man to beat here. The former USC passer and 2016 third-rounder was thrust into action midway through last season after injuries befell both players in front of him.
Although he obviously did not win any games, going 0-8 as a starter, the 6-foot-1 Kessler fared decently for a player viewed as more of a developmental project. He completed 66 percent of his passes and threw six touchdown passes compared to two interceptions despite the Browns not having much in the way of skill-position depth.
Kizer, though, closed the gap during OTAs and minicamp. The Browns having made a second-round investment in the former Notre Dame signal-caller positions him well in the quarterback-of-the-future discussion. The team is not interested in the 6-4 player sitting just to sit this season, with Jackson saying he will play if he’s ready.
Viewed as relatively raw and coming with the kind of questions his 2017 rookie-QB peers also had, the 21-year-old Kizer may benefit from observing for a bit. But he’s not exactly blocked by a proven player, so Jackson may want to get him reps soon. Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot saw Kizer show superior physical skills during OTAs compared to the other quarterbacks, and QBs coach David Lee said the rookie has a bright NFL future.
The obvious wild card here after arriving in one of the weirdest trades in NFL history, Osweiler has impressed thus far. He brings the most experience, even if no action of consequence occurred until his fourth season, but is a polarizing presence after the way the Texans season unfolded.
Osweiler is being paid $16MM this year as part of the agreement with the Texans, and he helped the 2015 Broncos secure home-field advantage en route to their Super Bowl title. But after his Denver audition had peaks and valleys, the 26-year-old passer bombed in Houston, throwing 16 interceptions and limiting the Texans’ offense. Lee is working on refining the 6-7 quarterback’s three-quarters delivery, and Cabot notes he is a viable threat to start in Week 1.
Kessler probably has the best handle on Jackson’s system, with Kizer having a higher upside as of now. One anonymous exec still thinks the Browns will find a way to trade Osweiler before the season. The team tried to do so after acquiring him, making Osweiler’s chances at securing the job interesting. But he also isn’t facing the kind of steep odds most backup-type passers are around the league. Kevin Hogan is also on the team, and Jackson said he would receive first-team reps, but the 2016 fifth-rounder is not likely to be a serious candidate come camp.
So, who will win this job? Did Kessler show enough on a 1-15 team last season to earn another opportunity? Or will Jackson throw Kizer into the fire despite his age and seeming need for development? How much of a chance do you give Osweiler here? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
PFR Originals: 6/25/17 – 7/2/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- The Chiefs are the latest team to mount a GM search well into the offseason. PFR’s Zach Links compiled a list of the candidates Kansas City is considering to replace John Dorsey. Some familiar names from past 2017 searches popped up, and the Chiefs have contacted multiple internal candidates to replace Dorsey. The recently fired GM held this title since the beginning of the 2013 offseason.
- Nick Fairley was dealt a brutal blow recently, and the heart condition the Saints defensive tackle encountered will cost him at least the 2017 season — and maybe the rest of his NFL career. As for the Saints, who re-signed Fairley in March after a productive 2016, PFR’s Dallas Robinson looked at a variety of ways the team can attempt to replace the ailing interior defender. From trades for players like the Jets’ Sheldon Richardson or the Browns’ Desmond Bryant, to the free agent market — where the likes of Jared Odrick and Vince Wilfork still reside — many assistance avenues are mentioned.
- The Patriots are as of now a runaway favorite to repeat as AFC champions, but after that, a glut of contenders are on roughly the same level. I asked readers who they thought would be the chief challenger to New England this season. As of Sunday afternoon, the Raiders are the clear leader. The Steelers and “other” are in second and third, respectively, with many fans evidently seeing some sleepers I left off as more viable threats than the Chiefs or Texans.
- Thanks to the fifth-year option, players like Odell Beckham Jr. and Aaron Donald are under team control for two more years at salaries far below market value. I took a look at how this issue is affecting them and other players, such as the Raiders’ Khalil Mack, around the league in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate piece. Weigh in with your thoughts about how these fourth-year players should proceed as training camp nears.
- The Vikings have a player who is closer to his contract year than the aforementioned superstars, and PFR’s Rory Parks took a look at how an extension for Xavier Rhodes would play out. The 2013 first-round pick is set to play 2017 on a fifth-year option as of now. The Falcons’ recent Desmond Trufant re-up looks to provide reasonable parameters for Minnesota’s talks with Trufant.
Extension Candidate: Xavier Rhodes
The Vikings’ defense finished 2016 ninth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), third in yards allowed per game, and sixth in points allowed per game. In short, Minnesota boasted a pretty strong defense, and there is a lot of credit to go around for that performance.
Cornerback Xavier Rhodes deserves a great deal of that credit. Rhodes, whom the Vikings selected in the first round of the 2013 draft, turned in the best season of his career in 2016, which earned him his first Pro Bowl nod. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics were fairly kind to his overall effort, as Rhodes graded out as the 29th-best corner in the league out of 111 qualified players, but PFF really loved his performance against the run, where he graded as the top CB in football. Whatever issues he had in coverage he helped to make up for with his five interceptions, one of which he returned 100 yards for a score.
Minnesota picked up Rhodes’ fifth-year option last year, so he is currently under contract through 2017, and he is set to earn a tidy $8.026MM this season. But that doesn’t mean Rhodes wouldn’t be open to a long-term deal, and the Vikings do have a history of signing key players to extensions during contract years. Indeed, we heard back in February that the team was expected to begin negotiating a new contract with Rhodes, and while there have been no public reports of such negotiations, it does not appear that either side has put a deadline on contract talks. As such, it could be that a deal gets hammered out at some point during the season.
Former NFL agent Joel Corry says Desmond Trufant‘s recent extension with the Falcons could serve as a barometer for Rhodes’ negotiations with Minnesota. Trufant, whose total contract value is currently the third-highest in the league among cornerbacks — and who was drafted three picks ahead of Rhodes — pulled down a five-year, $68.75MM deal from Atlanta, including $41.53MM in guaranteed money. In addition to being just about the same age, Trufant and Rhodes are similarly talented players, both solid in coverage and stout against the run, so it would not be a surprise to see Rhodes land a contract that matches or exceeds Trufant’s pact.
Since he became a full-time starter in 2014, Rhodes has also been pretty durable. He started all 16 regular-season contests in 2014 and 2015, and after missing the first two weeks of 2016 with a knee injury, he started and finished the remaining 14 games. The Vikings have about $13.5MM in cap space at the moment (under the Rule of 51), so theoretically they could even front-load a Rhodes extension to give themselves some wiggle room down the road. In any event, expect to see Rhodes and fellow Pro Bowler Harrison Smith sharing Minnesota’s defensive backfield for the next few years.
Community Tailgate: Fifth-Year Options
A few of the NFL’s best players find themselves in contract predicaments due largely to the CBA, and their courses of action could become major issues for their respective teams.
Thanks to the fifth-year option, Odell Beckham Jr., Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack — and many others from a talented 2014 first-round contingent — are tied to the franchises that drafted them for two more seasons as part of their rookie contracts. Despite several of these players having outperformed their deals, none more than the aforementioned trio, these performers are all attached to 2017 salaries far below their market values.
Beckham did not show for Giants OTAs before reporting in advance of minicamp, and although the superstar wideout has downplayed concerns about his contract going into his fourth season, John Mara categorized this extension as a lower-priority matter right now. That likely wouldn’t be the case if Beckham had been a second-round pick.
Donald gave a non-answer regarding a potential training camp holdout. Though he’s been in talks with the team on a new deal, that situation appears to be dragging. The two-time All-Pro has become the league’s top defensive tackle, but his situation doesn’t leave him the kind of leverage then-UFA Ndamukong Suh had when he set the bar at six years and $114MM.
Despite being the defensive player of the year, Mack looks like he will have to wait until 2018 to secure a long-term commitment from the Raiders. While Reggie McKenzie said Mack will be re-signed — likely for more money than any defender has made — the fact that the player who is probably the Raiders’ best has to wait behind other standouts from his draft class simply because Derek Carr and Gabe Jackson‘s deals didn’t include fifth-year options is a loophole. It affects top talents annually.
Other players like Mike Evans, Anthony Barr and Jadeveon Clowney are part of the above group. But in the case of Beckham, Mack and Donald, these are three elite NFL talents who are tied to modest amounts while lesser players from the ’14 draft are prioritized because they are entering their contract years. Von Miller and Muhammad Wilkerson had to wait five years for their extensions, with teams also having the more lucrative franchise tag to apply as a stall tactic. It worked out for those stalwart defenders, but this system creates drama consistently.
Teddy Bridgewater can be used as an example of it backfiring, although the timing was different. The Vikings declined Bridgewater’s fifth-year option months after his knee injury put his career in jeopardy. While Bridgewater was not eligible for an extension at the time he was hurt, the Vikings almost certainly would have picked up his option in March to keep him around on an $11MM-plus salary in 2018. Now, the quarterback’s camp could be preparing for a battle since a PUP list stay could cause the fourth-year passer’s contract to toll, thus tying him to his Year 4 salary ($2.18MM) for another season. That would be quite the fall after being in line for a possible extension down the road.
Attached to respective salaries of $3.23MM, $3.31MM and $5.94MM, Donald, Beckham and Mack don’t have many courses of action. They could hold out, however, to apply pressure to their teams.
The Giants and Raiders wouldn’t be the same without their superstar 2014 draftees, and while the Rams haven’t made the playoffs with Donald around and are in more of a rebuilding phase now, they would certainly be weakened without Donald’s services. But the players could incur $30K fines per day by doing this. That’s not exactly a harsh deterrent to someone who stands to sign for more than $100MM at some point, but given that such money isn’t assured yet, these penalties would be more severe.
These options have turned out to be quite team-friendly, despite the pay increases that come in Year 5. They also delay a first-rounders’ prospective free agencies as peers chosen in later rounds venture onto the open market, forcing teams to pay for another prime year of service. Robert Griffin III and D.J. Fluker found out how unfriendly the options can be to players after their teams rescinded them free of charge over the past two offseasons.
But this setup is the law until a new CBA emerges. For the time being, fourth- or fifth-year players who feel they’ve outperformed their deals will be thrust into uncertainty the way some of their peers drafted later aren’t.
So, should talents like Beckham and Donald follow through with holdouts to ratchet up the pressure? Or would showing goodwill toward their teams by working until an extension comes be a better course of action? Should teams display more expediency regarding these deals to avoid these situations, in an effort to show future players they are valued? Or are the pay bumps that come in Year 5 enough to justify the delays? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
Poll: Who Is Patriots’ Top AFC Challenger?
An offseason that saw the Patriots trade several draft picks for immediate help leaves the defending Super Bowl champions as the favorite to at least defend their AFC title. Las Vegas is inclined to agree, with top sites showing a sizable odds gap between the Patriots and the AFC’s other contenders.
But if there’s a line of demarcation between the Pats and their competition, there doesn’t appear to be much of one separating the challenger tier. Several teams can make cases they are in the best position to push the Pats.
This conference hasn’t featured much parity this century, with only the 2012 Ravens infiltrating the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Ben Roethlisberger rotation on the Lamar Hunt Trophy since the 2002 season. The Steelers are certainly in this conversation, but what about a team not steeped in modern excellence?
Certainly, you’d first look to the AFC West as the division housing the most viable threats. The Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos reside among Vegas’ top challenging prospects, but none is without issue going into training camp.
The defending division champions just cut the player most figured would be their No. 1 wide receiver and fired their GM three weeks later. While the departures of Jeremy Maclin and John Dorsey aren’t necessarily deal-breakers for the Chiefs’ effort, they also did not do much to help their cause in free agency and used their top draft choices on players who might not see the field much in 2017. While Kansas City went 6-0 against its divisional brethren in 2016 en route to its first playoff bye since 2003, the Chiefs have not reached an AFC championship game in more than 20 years and have lost narrow divisional-round contests to more proven playoff franchises in the past two.
The Raiders are receiving more preseason hype and used June to lock in pieces of their core long-term in extending Derek Carr and Gabe Jackson. The team now has a mixture of hired guns and homegrown cogs to make a legitimate push after a long time away from the spotlight. Already possessing an ascending franchise quarterback and a top-flight offensive line, Oakland bolstered its offense with additions of Jared Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson and Marshawn Lynch. The Silver and Black, though, have not established much defensive success — Khalil Mack‘s dominance notwithstanding — and still have uncertainty on that unit.
Denver’s enjoyed the most success in stopping New England runs in recent years, but the Broncos’ run of playoff berths stalled at five last season. The defensive nucleus that spearheaded the Super Bowl 50 title remains, but the Broncos now have a new coach and new coordinators. They also have yet to establish a quarterback plan, and their offensive line has notable questions after a rough year. They did spend quite a bit to upgrade up front, however, and showed two years ago they don’t need a great offense to win a title.
While the Steelers have proven they can win in January, they didn’t fare well in Foxboro. Although they weren’t exactly a healthy operation by the AFC title game, the Steelers did not account themselves well that night. They might be the No. 1 AFC contender based on Roethlisberger and host of skill-position threats, but while the Patriots added several new pieces this offseason, the Steelers continued their cautious strategy when it comes to outside talent procurement. But the defending AFC North champions do return a strong outfit capable of making an AFC charge.
The AFC South houses the team that ranked No. 1 defensively last season, doing so without J.J. Watt for the most part, but the Texans also are without an immediate quarterback answer. Deshaun Watson could prove to be that in due time, but for the purposes of 2017, this query will follow Houston despite its defense’s potential. The Titans made a big jump last season and added some weaponry in 2017. They figure to make matters tougher on another Texans division crown. The Dolphins also ended their playoff drought and have an intriguing skill-position corps. Ryan Tannehill remains a question mark, though, as far as January viability goes, and Miami’s defense struggled in 2016.
So, who will be the top threat to stop the Patriots from repeating in the AFC? Who did we leave off that has a legitimate opportunity this season? Take PFR’s latest poll and drop your sleeper picks in the comments section.
How The Saints Can Replace Nick Fairley
The Saints officially placed defensive tackle Nick Fairley on the non-football injury list on Monday, ending Fairley’s 2017 season before it began and casting doubt on the future of his career. New Orleans already added one potential reinforcement earlier this month, agreeing to terms with veteran Tony McDaniel, but the club could still pursue more help on the interior.
Let’s take a look at the possible solutions for the Saints, beginning with players that could potentially be acquired via trade:
Trade options
Arik Armstead, 49ers — Now that the 49ers have made several additions to their defensive line, Armstead — the 17th overall selection just two years ago — could become expendable. Free agent signee Earl Mitchell is projected to start at defensive tackle alongside 2016 first-rounder DeForest Buckner, but a trade of Armstead could allow Buckner to see more snaps on the edge opposite Solomon Thomas. Dealing Armstead could also allow San Francisco to get Aaron Lynch more playing time at end. At 6’7″, 292 pounds, Armstead has the size to play the interior in the Saints’ 4-3 scheme.
Desmond Bryant, Browns — Bryant doesn’t fit in with a Browns team that is going young, and he’s entering the final year of his contract. He’s eminently affordable (he’d cost the Saints just $3MM), and, like others on this list, has the ability to play on the edge and inside. Bryant’s health is a question mark, as he missed the entire 2016 campaign with a torn pectoral, but he returned to Cleveland’s practice field last month. It’s possible the Browns release Bryant later this summer, so New Orleans wouldn’t even have to sacrifice a pick.
Vinny Curry, Eagles — Curry may be the unlikeliest trade candidate listed here, especially given that he just signed a five-year, $46.25MM extension last February. But the Eagles haven’t been afraid to deal recently-signed players in the past (see: Sam Bradford), and trading Curry would allow Philadelphia to part with his $7MM guaranteed base salary. Listed as a defensive end, Curry is an excellent pass rusher from the interior, but the snaps haven’t been there with the Eagles (43% in 2016). With Chris Long now in tow, Curry could struggle to find consistent playing time again next season.
Carl Davis, Ravens — Heading into the 2015 draft, Davis was considered a potential first- or second-round selection, but the Ravens ended up picking him up in the third round. After struggling through 239 defensive snaps during his rookie campaign, Davis missed all of 2016 with an ankle injury. He’s now third on the depth chart at nose tackle behind Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce, meaning he could be superfluous. Only 25 years old, Davis is signed through 2018 at palatable rates.
Steve McLendon, Jets — Gang Green has already unloaded several notable veterans this offseason, and a rebuilding club like the Jets doesn’t particularly need to employ a run-stuffing defensive tackle earning nearly $3MM like McLendon. The 31-year-old McLendon played on roughly a third of New York’s defensive snaps a year ago, and that’s the type of reserve role he’d likely play for the Saints. A player-for-player trade could be a possibility here, as the Jets were the free agent runners-up for running back Travaris Cadet, whom New Orleans is now shopping.
Sheldon Richardson, Jets — I’ve banged the drum for a Richardson-to-New Orleans trade in the past, but had previously considered the former first-round pick as an ideal complement to Cameron Jordan at defensive end. The Saints didn’t do much to address their edge rushing problem, with free agent Alex Okafor and third-round selection Trey Hendrickson comprising most of the team’s attempted improvement. Richardson, then, would make a perfect candidate to play end in base packages before becoming an interior rusher on passing downs.
Free agents
Arthur Jones — Jones, who will turn 31 years old later this week, managed to appear in only 17 games through three seasons after signing a five-year deal with the Colts prior to the 2014 season. While he’s typically served as a two-gapping, 3-4 defensive end throughout his career, Jones has the size (6’3″, 315 pounds) to play tackle for the Saints. Clearly, Jones has question marks, including severe health issues and a 2016 PED suspension, but those factors should make him come cheap.
Jared Odrick — While a number of clubs have expressed interest in Odrick this offseason, he hadn’t been on the Saints’ radar as of yet. That could change now that Fairley is lost for 2017, and Odrick offers a recent track record of success. Although his Jaguars tenure was not successful, Odrick was a high-caliber player for the Dolphins as recently as 2014. Additionally, Odrick still has youth on his side, as he’s entering just his age-29 season.
Vince Wilfork — As of earlier this month, Wilfork still hasn’t decided whether he wants to hang up his cleats, as he claims he’s “50-50” on the idea of retirement. At age-35, Wilfork wasn’t very effective last season, but the Texans may have been asking too much of him, as he played on roughly half the club’s defensive snaps. Perhaps he could still play a role for New Orleans if his workload was reduced, although Wilfork may wait to sign in order to avoid another training camp.
Dan Williams — Among available free agents, Williams earned the highest 2016 marks from Pro Football Focus, as he graded as the No. 44 interior lineman among 127 qualifiers. Although the 6’3″, 330 pound Williams is viewed as a massive space-eater, PFF actually assigned him much higher marks for his pass rushing acumen than his run defense. As such, Williams could possibly push the pocket a bit, but his main goal would still be to clog the middle.
I recently ran down the best available players at each defensive position. Other free agents of interest could include: Tyson Jackson, Tony Jerod-Eddie, Sen’Derrick Marks, Roy Miller, Devon Still, and Vance Walker.