AFC North Notes: Steelers, Bell, Bengals
Here’s a look at the AFC North:
- Given the market for the running back position, Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell has reason to get a deal done rather than play the year out, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap writes. In the case of quarterback Kirk Cousins, he knows that a better offer will be coming his way next year. For Bell, however, the risk of an injury is so big that he probably has to consider any deal that gives him more than $9MM per year on average, Fitzgerald feels. There hasn’t been a ton of progress between the Steelers and Bell lately, but the Steelers have a track record for treating their players properly. If the two sides can’t come to terms, then Bell will play out the year on a one-year deal worth just over $12MM.
- In the event of an injury, the Steelers might regret not doing more at the running back position behind Bell, Ray Fittpaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. The Steelers are 11-5 (playoffs included) without Bell over the last two seasons. This time around, however, they are without the safety net of DeAngelo Williams. Williams remains on the open market and hopes that a return might be in the cards. For now, however, the Steelers have Fitzgerald Toussaint, third-round pick James Conner, and former Chiefs tailback Knile Davis behind Bell.
- Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is on the hottest seat of any coach in the AFC North, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com opines. In all of his years at the helm, the Bengals have not managed to win a single playoff game, and that’s a bigger headline than the team’s five consecutive playoff berths from 2011-2015. With a shaky offensive line, there’s no guarantee that the Bengals will be able to snap the streak this year. If the Bengals cannot take a step forward in 2017, this could be Lewis’ last year in Cincinnati.
DeAngelo Williams Rules Out Four Teams
Earlier this month, DeAngelo Williams told ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter that he wanted to continue playing in 2017. However, he said that there were four mystery teams he refused to play for. The running back has now revealed the identity of those teams (audio link). 
[RELATED: Finding A Fit For RB DeAngelo Williams]
Surprisingly, the Panthers are one of the teams that Williams says he will not sign with. The 34-year-old spent the first nine seasons of his career in Carolina, but he left there with a bad taste in his mouth because of the way his departure played out. He also said that he would not sign with the Cowboys, because he grew up a 49ers fan. The Browns and Jaguars, Williams says, are also not in consideration, because of their losing seasons. Williams was not exactly delicate as he broke down his reasons for crossing off each club.
“They don’t ever show up during the playoffs,” Williams said of the Cowboys. “They always disappear in the playoffs.”
In theory, that leaves 28 teams for Williams to possibly join this summer. However, his age and odometer are clearly working against him as we have heard little chatter around the veteran tailback. They say that beggars can’t be choosers, and Williams is being a chooser in the most unorthodox way by ruling out four teams that he could possibly join.
As of this writing, all four of the teams listed by Williams seem pretty well set at running back. However, if one of those clubs loses an RB to injury this summer, he may regret his words.
Checking In On Le’Veon Bell
The deadline for franchise tendered players to sign extensions with their respective clubs is six days away. If the Steelers and Le’Veon Bell cannot agree to a long-term deal by Monday, then they will not be able to discuss a multi-year deal again until next offseason. In that event, Bell would play out the 2017 season on a one-year, $12.12MM deal. 
The Steelers would like to lock up Bell for years to come since he is a cornerstone of their offense and one of the league’s very best running backs. At the same time, Bell’s camp is likely looking to push the market for the position and the Steelers only want to go so far.
Currently, LeSean McCoy leads the way for NFL running backs when it comes to total value thanks to the five-year, $40MM+ deal he signed with the Bills in 2015. His average annual value ($8MM+) is also the highest of any running back on a multi-year contract and the full guarantee of $18.25MM at signing stands as the watermark for tailbacks.
One can’t blame Bell for looking to top those totals. One also can’t blame the Steelers for being a bit hesitant, particularly when considering Bell’s spotty off-the-field track record and the typically short shelf life of running backs. To borrow an analogy from the late Patrice O’Neal – running backs get old like bread, not like wine. If a multi-year deal comes together, it will probably include an escape hatch to allow the Steelers to break away after three years with minimal penalties.
Bell would certainly like the security of a long-term deal, but he also has plenty of incentive to bet on himself. If he turns in the kind of outstanding campaign that we’re all expecting, he’ll be looking at either a reprise of the franchise tag next year with a 20% bump, or he’ll be the most talented running back to hit the free agent market in recent memory. For Bell to forego that opportunity, he’ll need cashflow upwards of $26MM (the value of the two consecutive franchise tags) between 2017 and 2018. At least 75% of that sum will also need to be fully guaranteed at signing.
Turning down the Steelers’ best offer before the Monday deadline does come with some risk, but it’s a gamble with a high floor. Even if Bell were to never earn another NFL dollar beyond the 2017 season, the $12MM+ payout could theoretically have him and his family taken care of for the rest of his life.
The Steelers want to keep Bell for the long haul and Bell wants to remain with the Steelers. Still, a lot will have to change in the next six days for the two sides to hammer something out.
Steelers Notes: Bell, Shazier, Williams
Don’t be surprised if the Steelers and running back Le’Veon Bell need the full seven days between now and the deadline to reach terms on an extension, Ray Fittpaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opines. Bell would like the security of a long-term deal and the Steelers would like some cost certainty, but finding middle ground could be a challenge.
If Bell is willing to bet on himself and his health, he is pretty much looking at a $26MM worst-case scenario by playing on two consecutive franchise tags between this year ($12.12MM) and next ($~14MM). Or, alternatively, the Steelers could allow him to test the open market next year where he would almost certainly top the $18.25MM guaranteed at signing in LeSean McCoy‘s contract. If Bell’s team is pushing for something around $31MM in cash flow between 2017 and 2018, and that’s a number the Steelers are probably uncomfortable with. As the deadline draws near, however, each side could bend a bit to find a compromise.
Here’s more from Pittsburgh:
- Steelers Ryan Shazier is entering a potential contract year, but he says that’s far from his only motivation to perform. “I just want to have a full year in general just for myself,” said Shazier (via ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler). “I feel like I have the capability of being one of the best players in the NFL. People can’t really see what I can do when I’m not on the field. Your best ability is availability.” The Steelers exercised the linebacker’s fifth-year option for 2018, but that is guaranteed for injury only. Shazier has turned in back-to-back seasons of 87 tackles and 3.5 sacks for Pittsburgh. For his work last year, Pro Football Focus ranked Shazier as the 32nd best linebacker in the NFL last year, tying him with Mark Barron of the Rams and Danny Trevathan of the Bears. There’s no question that he has been a quality player, but he is looking to take a big leap in 2017. If he takes his game to the next level this year, there will be little question about whether the Steelers will trigger his one-year, $8.718MM option.
- Former Steelers running back DeAngelo Williams made his pro wrestling debut earlier this month, but he says he still wants to continue playing in the NFL. He’s also not ruling out a return to Pittsburgh, but the Steelers’ current level of interest is unknown.
- Will the Steelers be among the 2016 division winners to miss out on the postseason this year? Click here to cast your vote.
Bud Dupree Primed For Breakout Season
- Steelers LB Bud Dupree was drafted with the thought that he could become the next great Pittsburgh pass rusher, and given the way he performed down the stretch in 2016, the team believes the third-year pro is ready to make the leap. As Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review points out, Dupree did not start his first game in 2016 until Week 14 — he began the year on injured reserve and was slowly eased back into action — but in that Week 14 matchup, Dupree played all but one snap and racked up 2.5 sacks (he ended the regular season with 4.5 sacks). He also recorded a half-sack in the playoffs while playing all but three snaps, so he appears primed for a breakout in 2017.
DeAngelo Williams Wants To Keep Playing
Yes,DeAngelo Williams is 34 years old. And, yes, he made his pro wrestling debut last weekend. But the running back is not ready to leave the game of football just yet. 
[RELATED: Williams Among Five Best Running Backs Left In Free Agency]
“Oh I’m definitely playing football,” Williams told ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter (link). “I’m just, I guess you could say I’m waiting on the phone call. I guess you could say that. I mean, not guess, you can say that. I’m waiting on the phone call with a GM or head coach or whoever decided I need my services I’ll be ready.”
Williams’ largely successful debut in the squared circle will not lead to a new career just yet, because he feels that he still has unfinished business to take care of on the gridiron. It’s easy to understand why he feels he has a lot left in the tank. Williams is only two years removed from a season in which he had 907 yards on the ground (4.5 yards per carry), 11 rushing touchdowns, and 40 catches for 367 receiving yards. Last year, he was held back by November knee surgery, but based on the way he looked in his tag team match, he appears to be all healed up.
Back in March, the Steelers indicated that the door was still cracked open for Williams to return, but we haven’t heard anything else on that front in the last three months. Right now, the Steelers appear set at running back with Fitzgerald Toussaint, third round pick James Conner, and free agent pickup Knile Davis behind star Le’Veon Bell. There hasn’t been word of any other teams having interest in Williams this offseason, but that can always change with an injury in training camp.
Poll: Which 2016 Division Winners Will Miss Playoffs?
A year ago at this time, the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals were popular picks to rank among the NFL’s elite teams in 2016. Denver was the reigning Super Bowl champion, after all, while Carolina was coming off a 15-1, conference-winning campaign and Arizona was second to the Panthers in the NFC. Each of those teams won their divisions two years ago, and not only were they unable to repeat that feat in 2016, but all three watched the playoffs from home last winter. They were among a whopping six division-winning clubs from 2015 that failed to qualify for the playoffs last season, joining the Bengals, Redskins and Vikings.
If the volatility from 2015 to ’16 is any indication, some of the league’s eight division champions from last year are in trouble as the upcoming season approaches. Once again, both Super Bowl representatives won their divisions in 2016, with the Patriots coasting in the AFC East and the Falcons knocking the Panthers from the NFC South throne. Like the Pats and the Falcons, the Chiefs, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Seahawks and Packers are aiming to repeat atop their divisions this season.
Of those teams, the Patriots look as though they’re in the best position to secure their division again. The Bill Belichick– and Tom Brady-led outfit has ruled the AFC East eight consecutive times, and during New England’s latest Lombardi Trophy-winning season, the club was a 14-2 juggernaut that easily led the league in point differential. While Brady’s a year older, set to enter his age-40 season, he hasn’t shown any signs of mortality, and even if he suffers an injury or falls off dramatically in 2017, the Patriots may have a starting-caliber quarterback behind him in Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, there’s also plenty of talent on hand elsewhere on the Pats’ roster, including new additions in wide receiver Brandin Cooks, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, defensive lineman Kony Ealy, linebacker David Harris, tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Mike Gillislee.
There might not be any shoo-ins to repeat among the league’s seven other returning division winners, but it’s hard to bet against clubs with franchise quarterbacks. In the cases of the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Seahawks (Russell Wilson) and Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger), there’s little reason to expect anything other than excellence from under center, which makes potential playoff berths more realistic for each. The Cowboys also seem to have an outstanding signal-caller in sophomore Dak Prescott, who was so stunningly great as a fourth-round rookie that he took Tony Romo‘s job and essentially forced the four-time Pro Bowler into retirement.
Kansas City (Alex Smith) and Houston (Tom Savage) aren’t as well off under center, though the Chiefs have done plenty of winning in the regular season since turning to Smith in 2013. But if he and the untested Savage disappoint this year, they have first-rounders behind them in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, respectively. Poor performances or injuries could force either Mahomes or Watson into action, perhaps paving the way for the emergence of a Prescott-like rookie this year in KC or Houston and making another postseason appearance more likely.
While some of these teams look to be in enviable shape at QB, the game’s most important position, things could still go awry. The Panthers had the reigning MVP 12 months ago in Cam Newton, but his play took massive steps backward, as did the team’s, en route to a 6-10 season and a last-place NFC South finish. The likelihood is that some of last year’s division winners will end up in similar situations in 2017, going from playoff teams to bitter disappointments overnight.
Could Phazahn Odom Make Roster?
- Tight end Phazahn Odom and linebacker Matt Galambos were the only two prospects to receive a contract from the Steelers after Pittsburgh’s tryout camp in May, and while their odds of cracking the roster may be slim, Jerry DiPaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review makes the case for Odom. After all, the Steelers’ TE depth chart is pretty thin after the team cut Ladarius Green earlier this year, and while Jesse James will serve as the starter, his backups, Xavier Grimble and David Johnson, are hardly world-beaters. As such, the door might be open just a hair for Odom, who is an intimidating physical presence at 6-8, 251 pounds, but who is still a bit raw.
Le'Veon Bell Recovered From Groin Surgery
Le’Veon Bell has recovered from offseason groin surgery. The Steelers running back has been playing pickup basketball in Los Angeles while his representatives discuss what would be a landmark extension, one that almost certainly would make Bell the NFL’s highest-paid running back. The fifth-year runner didn’t elaborate much on the process, though.
Attached to a $12.1MM franchise tag, Bell is the only player given the tag who did not sign his tender or agree to a long-term extension this offseason. Adam Schefter of ESPN.com noted this week the proposition of a Bell/Steelers pact “could go either way.” LeSean McCoy‘s $8MM-per-year salary is the current running back ceiling, but the 25-year-old Bell’s likely aiming to exceed that by quite a bit.
- One of Bell’s Steelers teammates did not have a good end to the work week. Miami Beach police arrested Artie Burns for driving with a suspended license Thursday night, Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald reports. Burns was unable to provide a driver’s license and had back tickets totaling approximately $1,000, Fowler reports (Facebook link). The cornerback was released from custody on Friday. The Steelers have not commented on the incident.
Arthur Moats, Anthony Chickillo On Roster Bubble?
- One of Arthur Moats or Anthony Chickillo could be in jeopardy of losing his roster spot with the Steelers, writes Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. With those two, T.J. Watt, James Harrison, Bud Dupree and seventh-rounder Keion Adams, the Steelers will enter training camp with six outside linebackers and only four or five spots. Watt, Harrison and Dupree are shoo-ins to make the roster, and whether both Moats and Chickillo will join them will come down to if the Steelers decide to deploy a five-OLB rotation. Meanwhile, Adams will likely head to the practice squad. Moats and Chickillo were both somewhat prominent members of Pittsburgh’s defense last year. Moats played 396 snaps, started in five of 16 appearances and picked up 3.5 sacks, while Chickillo amassed 316 snaps and 2.5 sacks in 15 games (seven starts).