Sunday Roundup: Brees, Bucs, Revis
Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that he expects the Saints to draft a quarterback in the early rounds of the 2015 draft as they begin to prepare for life after Drew Brees. On top of Brees’ struggles this season, Rapoport adds (via Twitter) that the Saints have watched the 35-year-old’s arm strength wane and therefore must be “prepared for the end.” Former agent Joel Corry, perhaps wondering if New Orleans would go so far as to release Brees after this season, tweets that the All-Pro carries a $26.4MM cap number for 2015 and the Saints have a league-high $161MM in 2015 cap commitments.
However, Rapoport notes (via Twitter) that releasing Brees after 2014 would create $15MM of dead money, a figure that becomes much more palatable if he were to be released following the 2015 season. As such, Rapoport believes it would be better for the Saints to simply draft Brees’ heir apparent and allow him to learn from Brees for at least one season.
Others, though, are more skeptical of Brees’ demise and of the Saints’ ability to draft a suitable replacement in short order. In a pair of tweets, Mike Triplett of ESPN.com writes that the Saints may well draft a quarterback this season, but the team does not feel as though Brees is in a steep decline, that a rookie would have to wait at least two years to be ready to lead the New Orleans offense, and that Brees has never relied on a big arm to be successful, so reports of diminished arm strength are not especially relevant. Former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, meanwhile, tweets that the Saints will be hard-pressed to find their future quarterback in this year’s draft.
Now for a few more links from around the league:
- Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune says it is not too soon to accept that the Buccaneers made a mistake with their offseason signings of Anthony Collins and Michael Johnson, whose futures in Tampa Bay are now very much in doubt. Although the Bucs have a little more flexibility with Collins than with Johnson, who would be owed a $4MM roster bonus on March 1 in addition to a $5MM base salary in 2015 (of which $3MM is guaranteed), Tampa Bay could realistically cut both players outright. Regardless of what the Bucs do, they will likely seek upgrades at offensive tackle and defensive end via the draft rather than dive once more into the free agency pool.
- Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald believes the Patriots should retain star cornerback Darrelle Revis, who has been a central figure of the team’s successful 2014 campaign, at all costs.
- Tony Boselli, the former Jaguars great who was drafted by current Giants head coach Tom Coughlin when Coughlin was with Jacksonville, says that the Jaguars’ firing of Coughlin was a “huge mistake,” writes Conor Orr of NFL.com. Boselli believes the Giants would be similarly misguided if they were to fire Coughlin without allowing him to coach through the end of his contract, which expires after the 2015 season.
- Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that Washington has not spoken with Robert Griffin III regarding his fifth-year option. Although a decision does not have to be made on that option until May, it does not appear as though the team will exercise it at this point.
- Rand Getlin of Yahoo! Sports tweets that 49ers DB Perrish Cox, who is in a contract year, has signed with agent David Mulugheta.
- Though we heard earlier today from ESPN’s Adam Schefter that the Jets and Raiders were interested in pursuing 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh via trade after the season, Schefter does note that some in the organization believe the team could still work out an extension with Harbaugh.
- Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Rams have improved under Jeff Fisher and appear to be on the cusp of being a competitive club, but the histories of Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer suggest that St. Louis, which has primarily utilized a conservative ball control offense, will not take the next step unless it somehow lands an elite quarterback.
Poll: Which Team Will Draft First In 2015?
This afternoon, our Rob DiRe took an early look at some of the teams that will have picks near the top of the 2015 draft, noting which of those clubs may be interested in snagging a quarterback. Before we can comfortably project where top college signal-callers like Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston might land though, we’ll need to figure out exactly how the 2015 draft order will look.
The 2014 season still features a number of teams in the hunt for division titles or Wild Card spots, with a chance that a club in each conference could win 10 games and still not make the postseason. Conversely, with plenty of teams piling up wins, there are several cellar-dwellers racking up loss after loss this year. Of course, by NFL rules, the teams with the worst records pick first in the following year’s draft, with strength of schedule breaking ties — the team that faced the easier schedule receives the higher pick.
After knocking off the Chiefs earlier this month, the Raiders head into Week 13 with a 1-10 record, matching the 1-10 Jaguars for the league’s worst mark. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap lays out, Oakland has faced a much trickier schedule than Jacksonville, meaning the Jags currently project to land the first overall pick.
Still, the Jags have a handful of winnable games left on their schedule, including two contests against Houston and home games against the Giants and Titans. The Raiders face a tougher slate, but have been playing better ball recently, and should be competitive in games against the Rams and Bills — Week 17’s contest in Denver could also get a lot easier if the Broncos aren’t playing for postseason seeding at that point.
Of course, the race for the first overall pick includes more teams than just Oakland and Jacksonville. The Buccaneers, Jets, and Titans are all 2-9, and with games still remaining against the Jets and Jags, the Titans’ performance down the stretch could go a long way to determining the draft’s top five. The Buccaneers, with a .469 overall strength of schedule (per OTC), are also in position to sneak into that No. 1 overall spot if they struggle down the stretch — of Tampa Bay’s five remaining games, three are against legit playoff contenders (Bengals, Lions, Packers), while two are against clubs still hoping to win the NFC South (Panthers, Saints). If the Bucs don’t win another game, and the Raiders and Jags do, it would almost certainly give Tampa Bay the first overall pick next spring.
So what do you think? Which of these also-rans will finish in the NFL’s basement and get the first shot at top college talent in the 2015 draft? Which team will land the No. 1 overall pick?
Minor Moves: Saturday
Here are today’s minor moves, with the most recent transactions added to the top of the list:
- The Buccaneers have promoted rookie offensive lineman Josh Allen from their practice squad, cutting cornerback C.J. Wilson to accommodate the addition, writes Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times. Allen will provide insurance in case center Evan Dietrich-Smith, who has been sidelined with flu symptoms, can’t play tomorrow.
Earlier updates:
- The Patriots have promoted linebacker Darius Fleming off their practice squad, reports Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston (via Twitter).
- The Bears signed veteran safety Anthony Walters to the active roster, reports Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). The team also brought defensive end Jamil Merrell onto its practice squad (via Twitter).
- The Chargers have promoted offensive lineman Jeremiah Sirles to their active roster, reports Michael Gehlken of the U-T San Diego. Sirles has spent most of the season on the team’s practice squad. The Chargers have announced that safety Adrian Phillips was released in a corresponding move that would open up space on the roster for the utility lineman.
- For the second time this month, the Panthers have waived running back Chris Ogbonnaya, the team announced (via Twitter). Defensive tackle Micanor Regis has been promoted from the practice squad to take the open roster spot. Ogbonnaya was waived in early November, but he rejoined the squad only two days later. The 28-year-old has compiled 50 yards on 14 carries this season, but he hasn’t played since the team’s loss to the Saints in late October.
Jets Among Teams Interested In Drafting A QB
Most teams have five games left on their schedule (unless they are one of the six that played on Thanksgiving), and as teams are jockeying for playoff position, fan bases of those already out of contention cannot help but look ahead to the 2015 NFL draft.
The best way to find a franchise quarterback is by drafting as high as possible, and the best way to ensure a high draft pick is with poor quarterback play. For that reason, one win can be the difference between having a chance to draft an elite prospective signal-caller or missing out on a passer entirely.
Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk put together a prospective list of the teams likely to be drafting in the top 10 and their quarterback needs. The draft order he uses is comprised of all the teams 4-7 or worse, except for the Falcons and Saints, who are still embarrassingly battling it out for the NFC South division crown.
The Raiders and Jaguars, the two clubs with only one win, look like good bets to be drafting right at the top of the first round. Of course, both teams took quarterbacks in the first two rounds of last year’s draft, and shouldn’t be in the market for replacing them this offseason. The next group is far more interesting, with the Jets, Buccaneers, and Titans all sitting on two wins and tremendous need at the position.
Unfortunately for one of those teams, there may only be two quarterbacks worth such a valuable draft selection. Marcus Mariota of Oregon and Jameis Winston of Florida State are both vying to be the first quarterback taken. With no third option, one of those three teams will come up empty in terms of fixing their quarterback situations.
The New York media is already calling for the Jets to chase one of these college stars, with Kevin Kernan of the New York Post openly calling for the team to draft Winston.
Of course, a lot can happen in the last five games, and wins and losses still to come can shake up the order, as can an offseason trade or signing that suddenly changes the need at the position. If any of the three teams do manage to win a game or two down the stretch, Washington and St. Louis could crawl up to a higher selection, and each could consider a quarterback according to Smith.
An even more volatile situation is among the college quarterbacks. Both Mariota and Winston still have time to fall out of favor with NFL teams, and both could decide to remain in college another year, pushing back the draft process one more year. Or maybe one of the two impresses so much it convinces another team to trade its future to move up into the top two to take their coveted quarterback.
Lance Briggs Will Test Free Agency
Lance Briggs‘ season is over after the Bears placed him on injured reserve with a groin injury yesterday. With his contract up in March, many pundits have suggested that this will call to a close his career in Chicago, where he spent 12 years with the team.
Although it seems like a foregone conclusion that he will not be returning to the Bears in 2015, that does not mean the end of the road for Briggs altogether. Briggs has no plans to retire, and will test free agency this offseason, reports Dan Wiederer of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter).
Briggs’ 12 seasons with the Bears have placed him among the franchises all-time great defensive players. He missed only four games in his first ten years with the team, earning seven trips to the Pro Bowl during that time. He was also named All-Pro three times, in 2005, 2006, and 2009.
His 170 starts as a Bear puts him among the top five in franchise history, alongside such names as Walter Payton, Mike Singletary, Olin Kreutz, and Brian Urlacher. He and Urlacher anchored a defense that was frequently among the best in the NFL.
Still, his play declined in his final years with the team, struggling with performance and with injuries after head coach Lovie Smith left town. He played in only eight games in 2013 and will finish 2014 only appearing in nine games.
Additionally, Briggs will turn 35 in 2015, and given his recent injury history, he may not be a hot commodity as a free agent. He also plays a non-premium position as a 4-3 outside linebacker, and those spots are often filled with younger talents and mid-round draft picks.
One obvious fit would be a reunion with his old coach Smith in Tampa Bay, where he could join a young defense headlined by stars Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy. Under Smith, there has been upheaval on the defense as the coach attempts to bring in his own talent, and it can be seen most notably as the secondary has roster turnover. Briggs could be a key in Smith implementing his scheme to the younger players.
Outside of the Buccaneers though, desire for the former Pro Bowl linebacker will most likely be limited, and he may be forced to sign for the veteran’s minimum if he is intent on continuing his NFL career.
Bears To Place Lance Briggs On IR
The Bears are placing long-time linebacker Lance Briggs on injured reserve with a groin injury, ending his season, reports Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter).
Briggs has spent 12 seasons in Chicago, making the Pro Bowl seven times in his career with the team. He is one of five Bears to start 170 games for the team, along with Walter Payton, Olin Kreutz, Brian Urlacher, and Mike Singletary, according to Brad Biggs (via Twitter).
Briggs was one of former coach Lovie Smith’s favorites, making a career as a weakside linebacker on some great 4-3 cover-two defenses. His performance since Smith was fired had declined precipitously, and the new regime had made an effort to move on from the team’s defensive stalwarts.
If Briggs decides to continue his career, he will likely have to find somewhere else to play other than Chicago. The Bears are unlikely to bring Briggs back next season, reports David Haugh (via Twitter).
One likely landing spot for Briggs if he pursues another team would be the Buccaneers, where he and Smith could reunite, writes Vaughn McClure of ESPN (via Twitter). If his level of play returns to what it was under Smith, he will add to a run defense highlighted by Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David.
NFC Links: Cardinals, Bears, Bucs
Following his brief retirement, James Harrison rejoined the Steelers, and the 36-year-old linebacker has been among the league’s biggest surprises this season. However, his resurgence almost didn’t happen in Pittsburgh, as the veteran was close to signing with the Cardinals. Via Peter King of MMQB.com…
“I had a deal in Arizona,” Harrison said. “I could have gone to Arizona for $2 million guaranteed. I kept asking for more money, and I could tell they wanted me to sign. But at the end of it, I didn’t want to play anymore … if I had to be away from my kids. I was already away from my family for a year in Cincinnati, and I wasn’t going to do that to them again.
“Then the Steelers had that injury. At, like, 4:03 a.m. [Monday], Brett Keisel texted me: ‘Come back.’ Coach [Mike] Tomlin called me. But I wasn’t going to come back if it wasn’t okay with my boys. So I asked them, and they both said yes. And I signed.”
Let’s take a look at some other notes from the NFC…
- By his standards, Brandon Marshall has had an underwhelming 2014 season so far, prompting Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune to look back at the extension the wideout signed earlier this year and wonder if the Bears would’ve been better off waiting to lock him up.
- Some Bears reporters believe change is inevitable, especially if the team continues on their current course. Jon Greenberg of ESPNChicago.com says changes will be made for next season, but the specifics may be a result of the team’s performance down the stretch. Meanwhile, Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Sun-Times believes the team has “anesthetized everyone into surrender,” adding that ownership will not make any significant changes.
- If the Buccaneers decide to draft a quarterback in next year’s draft, the team will likely have to choose between Josh McCown or Mike Glennon. Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times believes Glennon could have some trade value, while McCown could be a good mentor for a young player.
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Teams Facing Offseason Quarterback Decisions
No position in the NFL – or, arguably, in any of North America’s major sports leagues – is more crucial to a team’s success than quarterback. And by our count, half the teams in the league shouldn’t have to worry about the position this offseason at all.
Many of these 16 clubs have an established veteran who remains under contract for multiple seasons, like the Packers with Aaron Rodgers or the Patriots with Tom Brady. Others don’t necessarily have an elite veteran quarterback, but have recently committed a high draft pick to a young signal-caller who is still expected to be the long-term answer — think Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota or Blake Bortles with the Jaguars.
However, the other half of the league’s teams have some uncertainty at the position. In some instances, a team will actively pursue a starting quarterback in the draft of free agency. For other teams, it’s simply a matter of ensuring that the current QB gets locked up for a few more years beyond next season.
Here’s an early look at those teams that should need to address the quarterback situation in one way or another during the offseason:
Teams with no clear-cut starter for 2015:
- Buffalo Bills: Both players who have started at quarterback this year for the Bills could theoretically be back for the 2015 season — Kyle Orton has a second-year option on his deal, while E.J. Manuel‘s rookie contract runs through 2016. Neither player has asserted himself as a real answer for the club this season, but without a first-round pick, the Bills will be hard-pressed to find a long-term solution in the offseason.
- Cleveland Browns: Unlike many of the teams in this group, the Browns actually may have two plausible options at quarterback, rather than none. The question GM Ray Farmer and his staff must answer is whether the team will hitch its wagon to Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel, or whether both players will return for 2015. Hoyer is eligible for free agency in March, so Cleveland could simply let him walk if the team believes Manziel will be ready to take over.
- Houston Texans: Even if the Texans had seen enough from Ryan Mallett to think he was their future starter, he’s a free agent at season’s end, so there’s no guarantee he returns. Perhaps Houston views Tom Savage as its future starter, but I’d be surprised if the team doesn’t seek out alternatives this winter.
- New York Jets: Like the Bills, the Jets haven’t had any success with their young quarterback (Geno Smith) or their veteran stopgap (Michael Vick). Smith could get one more chance in 2015 depending on how he finishes this season and who is coaching the team next year, but there are certainly no guarantees for the former second-round pick.
- St. Louis Rams: Coming off another season-ending knee injury and owed a base salary of nearly $13MM in 2015, Sam Bradford is a strong candidate to become a cap casualty in the offseason. Austin Davis likely isn’t the Rams’ long-term signal-caller of choice, so St. Louis looks like a team that could target a QB in the draft. The Rams are currently projected to select 12th overall.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Glennon received a vote of confidence as the Buccaneers’ “quarterback of the future” in the offseason from head coach Lovie Smith, but with Glennon currently backing up ineffective veteran Josh McCown, it’s not clear if the Bucs continue to stand by that stance. Glennon and McCown are both under contract for next season, so maybe Tampa Bay will try again with the duo and hope for better results, but with a potential top-five – or at least top-10 – pick on the way, the club will have to at least consider drafting a QB.
- Tennessee Titans: Former first-rounder Jake Locker is on an expiring contract and appears to be on his way out of Tennessee. That could leave Zach Mettenberger as 2015’s starter, but the LSU product was a sixth-rounder and will have only a half-season of experience heading into next year. Presumably, like the Bucs, the Titans would have to take a long look at quarterbacks with their potential top-10 draft pick.
- Washington: Amazingly, it was only two and a half years ago that Washington was giving up the farm in order to land Robert Griffin III. Now, it’s looks like there’s a reasonable chance that RGIII’s time in D.C. is coming to an end. Head coach Jay Gruden doesn’t seem any more enamored with Kirk Cousins than he is with Griffin, and Colt McCoy isn’t a long-term solution, so Washington is another team that could target a quarterback near the top of 2015’s draft. If they don’t go that route, Griffin could ultimately get the nod for at least one more year.
Teams facing decisions on options or extensions:
- Carolina Panthers: As the first overall pick in 2011, Cam Newton remains under contract for one more season because the Panthers exercised his fifth-year option for 2015. Still, it seems unlikely that the team would let him play Week 1 without a new deal. In all likelihood, it’ll be a matter of when – not if – Newton and the Panthers reach a long-term agreement, which could provide a notable benchmark for the quarterbacks from the 2012 draft.
- Indianapolis Colts: One of those 2012 quarterbacks is Andrew Luck, and again, it’s a matter of when – not if – he signs a new long-term contract with his current team. He becomes eligible for an extension this winter, but the Colts could choose to simply pick up his 2016 option and put off long-term negotiations another year.
- Miami Dolphins: Unlike Luck, Ryan Tannehill isn’t a lock to have his fifth-year option exercised. Still, despite Tannehill’s ups and downs over the years, and despite an expected price tag of about $15MM on that 2016 option, I’d expect the Dolphins to exercise it. It’s not immediately fully guaranteed, and even if it were, Tannehill has done enough this year that he’s worth keeping around for an extra year at that price, if not locking up to a full-fledged, multiyear deal.
- New York Giants: Eli Manning and the Giants have both expressed interest in continuing the relationship, and I anticipate that’ll be exactly what happens. Manning’s current pact expires after the 2015 season, so the two sides should get serious about an extension this winter.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Perhaps the Eagles should be included in the section above, since we can’t say with 100% certainty that Nick Foles will reclaim his starting role in 2015, given how shaky he was early this season. Still, I’d be pretty surprised if Philadelphia went another direction. Because he wasn’t a first-round pick in 2012, Foles doesn’t have a fifth-year option, meaning his deal will expire after 2015, and the Eagles will have to make a decision on him soon. In my view, Foles could start the ’15 season without a new deal and – if the Eagles like what they see – he could sign an in-season extension like Carson Palmer did with the Cardinals this year.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Another instance where it’s only a matter of time until a new deal gets done — the Steelers will likely sign Ben Roethlisberger to a contract this offseason that locks him up beyond 2015. The team has already indicated that negotiations will resume at season’s end.
- San Diego Chargers: Another veteran who should remain with his current team, Philip Rivers is expected to re-open extension discussions with the Chargers after the season. His current deal expires after 2015.
- Seattle Seahawks: Like Foles, Russell Wilson is a third-round pick whose rookie contract doesn’t feature a fifth-year option. As such, the Seahawks may be more aggressive about working out a multiyear extension sooner rather than later with their franchise quarterback, whose deal runs through the 2015 season.
South Notes: Texans, Panthers, Workouts
The South is the only divisional region not represented in this week’s Thanksgiving action, but that doesn’t mean there’s not news coming out of the divisions. Here’s the latest from around the AFC and NFC South:
- With Ryan Mallett out for the year, the Texans didn’t get much of an opportunity to see if he might be the team’s quarterback of the future. As such, the club is unlikely to count on him for 2015, and may be back to the drawing board when it comes to finding a QB. Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report examines the Texans’ “quarterback purgatory,” while John McClain of the Houston Chronicle writes that finding a big-time signal-caller should be atop the team’s offseason to-do list.
- The Panthers lost multiple offensive linemen during the offseason and have seen even more fall to injuries since the season got underway. As the team assesses its options for the rest of this year, a team source tells Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer that addressing the tackle positions in either free agency or the draft will be a top priority this coming offseason.
- In addition to working out Terrance Parks, whom they signed to their practice squad, the Texans also auditioned safeties M.D. Jennings and DeJon Gomes, says Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter).
- According to Wilson (via Twitter), the Colts auditioned several pass-catchers this week, including tight end Michael Flacco and wideouts Jace Davis and Nick Williams. The club also brought in offensive lineman Kitt O’Brien for a tryout.
- The Buccaneers signed a pair of tight ends earlier this week, and took a look at at least one more before making their decision, per Wilson, who tweets that the team worked out veteran free agent Tom Crabtree.
Robert Griffin III Notes: Wednesday
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who first reported last night that Washington would be making a quarterback change, head coach Jay Gruden informed his team this morning that Colt McCoy will start this Sunday instead of Robert Griffin III (Twitter link). In his initial report, Schefter suggested that the former second overall pick remains a “significant” part of Washington’s long-term plan, but it’s hard to imagine things turning around for RGIII and the club at this point. Here are today’s updates on Griffin:
- Jason Reid of the Washington Post (Twitter link) calls any talk of Griffin being part of the team’s long-term plans “nonsense,” suggesting that club sources are merely trying to boost the signal-caller’s trade value.
- The consensus among decision-makers who spoke to Albert Breer about RGIII’s trade value is that he’d be worth a mid-round pick — something like a third-rounder, plus change. One AFC executive told Breer that Washington would perhaps ask for a second-rounder and settle for a third or maybe a fourth. Another GM offered the following analogy: “He’s a car that’s been driven off the lot. Also, the dynamics of his contract drive price down at this stage” (all Twitter links).
- Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap and Bill Barnwell of Grantland each explore what’s next for Griffin, with Barnwell suggesting 10 potential suitors for the 24-year-old if and when Washington shops him in trade discussions. The 10 clubs identified by Barnwell are the Rams, Bills, Eagles, Buccaneers, Jets, Raiders, 49ers, Cardinals, Texans, and Titans.
- While some Washington players feel bad for RGIII and others agree it was time for a change, the most common comment around the locker room is “this is a circus,” says Dianna Marie Russini of NBC Washington (Twitter link).
- Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com takes a look at how Washington’s cap would be affected if the team keeps, trades, or cuts the third-year quarterback.