5 Key Stories: 6/25/17 – 7/2/17

Raiders continue to lock up core players: The Raiders now have two players from their excellent 2014 draft class signed long-term after the team and Gabe Jackson agreed on a five-year, $56MM contract. This makes Jackson the sixth member of the $10MM-AAV club for guards, and he joins fellow Raider blocker Kelechi Osemele in that group. The Raiders already have Rodney Hudson signed to a top-market center contract and Donald Penn on the books for $7.15MM in 2017. But Reggie McKenzie said the team wanted to extend Jackson despite Derek Carr (and almost certainly Khalil Mack) set to take up a sizable percentage of future Raiders caps, and the parties completed a deal that keeps Oakland’s interior line together. Carr left money on the table to help the Raiders sign Jackson.

But Mack will have to wait: Despite being the most accomplished of the Raiders’ three standout 2014 picks, with two first-team All-Pro distinctions and the 2016 defensive player of the year honor, Mack will have to wait until 2018 to receive his landmark extension. This could end up costing the Raiders in the long run due to the annual cap spikes, and it’s likely Mack will be in line to surpass Von Miller‘s six-year, $114MM deal and set a new benchmark for defenders. Mack not having a fifth-year option would make him a higher priority, but with the dominant defensive end signed through ’18, his extension may be delayed by a numbers game.

Zach Orr to unretire; several teams inquire: From a volume standpoint, Orr became the week’s centerpiece news item. The former Ravens linebacker announced he was considering unretiring after receiving more positive medical news on his congenital spine condition that initially forced him to retire. Then, the Lions, Colts and Jets each set up visits. Orr’s agent also said about half the league’s teams contacted him about the 2016 Baltimore tackles leader. The Ravens are divided on whether to renew interest in Orr, whom they did not tender as an RFA. However, the process is moving slowly. The Colts visit was more of an exploratory session, and the team has concerns about Orr’s condition. For his part, Orr said he’s feeling better than ever. Teams will obviously be careful in this pursuit, though.

Nick Fairley to miss 2017 season: After speaking with at least three doctors, the Saints defensive tackle will not play in 2017. The team placed the seventh-year veteran on the NFI list due to his heart condition, and Adam Schefter of ESPN.com reports Fairley’s career may be over. The 29-year-old defender played well for the Saints in 2016 and signed a four-year, $28MM deal to stay in New Orleans after agreeing to one-year pacts in both 2015 and ’16.

Franchise tag drama persists: Three tagged performers remain unsigned, and this week brought updates on each’s status with his respective team. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins don’t appear to be much closer to a deal, with Schefter reporting an extension by July 17 looms as a long shot. However, he adds that the tone of the talks improved, even if progress hasn’t accompanied it. ESPN’s Diana Russini noted later that the sides aren’t particularly enamored with one another but realize they need to work together. Meanwhile, Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers are likely going down to the wire. Schefter estimates this could go either way. The fifth-year running back is recovered from his groin surgery and didn’t seem stressed by the tag deadline being two weeks away. Trumaine Johnson, however, doesn’t look to be set to sign a Rams extension. The odds are now incredibly slim the cornerback and his team will agree on a contract before the deadline, meaning Johnson would again play a season on the tag.

PFR Originals: 6/25/17 – 7/2/17

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • The Chiefs are the latest team to mount a GM search well into the offseason. PFR’s Zach Links compiled a list of the candidates Kansas City is considering to replace John Dorsey. Some familiar names from past 2017 searches popped up, and the Chiefs have contacted multiple internal candidates to replace Dorsey. The recently fired GM held this title since the beginning of the 2013 offseason.
  • Nick Fairley was dealt a brutal blow recently, and the heart condition the Saints defensive tackle encountered will cost him at least the 2017 season — and maybe the rest of his NFL career. As for the Saints, who re-signed Fairley in March after a productive 2016, PFR’s Dallas Robinson looked at a variety of ways the team can attempt to replace the ailing interior defender. From trades for players like the Jets’ Sheldon Richardson or the Browns’ Desmond Bryant, to the free agent market — where the likes of Jared Odrick and Vince Wilfork still reside — many assistance avenues are mentioned.
  • The Patriots are as of now a runaway favorite to repeat as AFC champions, but after that, a glut of contenders are on roughly the same level. I asked readers who they thought would be the chief challenger to New England this season. As of Sunday afternoon, the Raiders are the clear leader. The Steelers and “other” are in second and third, respectively, with many fans evidently seeing some sleepers I left off as more viable threats than the Chiefs or Texans.
  • Thanks to the fifth-year option, players like Odell Beckham Jr. and Aaron Donald are under team control for two more years at salaries far below market value. I took a look at how this issue is affecting them and other players, such as the Raiders’ Khalil Mack, around the league in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate piece. Weigh in with your thoughts about how these fourth-year players should proceed as training camp nears.
  • The Vikings have a player who is closer to his contract year than the aforementioned superstars, and PFR’s Rory Parks took a look at how an extension for Xavier Rhodes would play out. The 2013 first-round pick is set to play 2017 on a fifth-year option as of now. The Falcons’ recent Desmond Trufant re-up looks to provide reasonable parameters for Minnesota’s talks with Trufant.

Extra Points: Elflein, Giants, Browns

The Vikings selected Ohio State center Pat Elflein in the third round of this year’s draft as part of the team’s offseason push to revamp its offensive line (Elflein’s selection marked the first time since 2012 that Minnesota used a pick in the top three rounds on an offensive lineman). Elflein has an excellent pedigree and certainly has the talent to become a top center in the league, but as Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune writes, Nick Easton served as the starting center during the later spring practices this year, including the three-day minicamp. However, Vensel says Elflein will get his chance in training camp, and he will need to make an early impact if the Vikings’ O-line is to become a strength this season.

Now for more notes from around the league:

  • D.J. Fluker has been lining up exclusively at right guard this offseason for the Giants, but James Kratch of NJ.com does not see any chance that the former Charger will unseat John Jerry at the position. There is always the possibility that Fluker moves back to right tackle, where he played during his first two seasons with the Bolts, but Kratch says Big Blue is very optimistic about Bobby Hart and will give him every opportunity to earn the right tackle job. In fact, Kratch does not foresee a true competition shaping up at right tackle this summer, and there is a good chance the Giants simply cut Fluker and save $1.5MM in the process.
  • In the same piece, Kratch says he does not expect the Giants to add a veteran cornerback at this point, and he also observes that, as much as everyone is rooting for UDFA Travis Rudolph because of his personal story, it’s going to be difficult for him to crack a loaded WR corps. Rudolph, Roger Lewis, and Darius Powe will likely be competing for, at most, one receiver spot, and that’s only if New York elects to keep six wideouts.
  • The Jaguars have spent over $800MM on free agents since 2011, but they only have 22 wins to show for it, as Roy Cummings of Florida Football Insiders writes. One of the problems, according to Cummings, is that all of that spending and the turnover it engenders creates uncertain leadership, and even leadership voids, in the locker room. This year, Jacksonville parted ways with a number of defensive veterans, and Roy Miller, who was a part of that purge, believes the departure of those players could mean that the Jags will once again be lacking leadership. Indeed, defense was not the team’s problem last year, and Cumming seems to think there may be something to Miller’s admittedly biased theory.
  • Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer says Browns head coach Hue Jackson would like to name a starting QB prior to the August 10 preseason opener, but that he may need to see some live action first, especially now that rookie DeShone Kizer has narrowed the gap between himself and Cody Kessler.
  • Tight end Phazahn Odom and linebacker Matt Galambos were the only two prospects to receive a contract from the Steelers after Pittsburgh’s tryout camp in May, and while their odds of cracking the roster may be slim, Jerry DiPaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review makes the case for Odom. After all, the Steelers’ TE depth chart is pretty thin after the team cut Ladarius Green earlier this year, and while Jesse James will serve as the starter, his backups, Xavier Grimble and David Johnson, are hardly world-beaters. As such, the door might be open just a hair for Odom, who is an intimidating physical presence at 6-8, 251 pounds, but who is still a bit raw.

Matt Jones Hires Drew Rosenhaus

Redskins RB Matt Jones, whose agent, Hadley Engelhard, asked Washington to release his client last month, has changed agents. Jones will now be represented by one of the biggest names in the sports world, Drew Rosenhaus, according to Rosenhaus himself (via Twitter).

Matt Jones (vertical)

Jones, of course, is not a part of the Redskins’ plans for 2017, so it made sense for Engelhard to approach the team about cutting him. It is unclear what — other than Rosenhaus’ name value and Engelhard’s inability to convince Washington to release Jones — might have triggered Jones’ decision, but now it will be Rosenhaus’ job to secure a change of scenery for his newest client.

Jones was once the Redskins’ starting back, but he has been bypassed by Robert Kelley. This year, Oklahoma product Samaje Perine figures to see a good percentage of the carries and Chris Thompson will return as the team’s pass-catching specialist out of the backfield. That leaves little-to-no room for the talented but fumble-prone Jones.

Washington also tried to trade Jones in the spring but did not find much of a market for his services. The 2015 third-round pick is still under club control on his rookie deal through 2018.

Extension Candidate: Xavier Rhodes

The Vikings’ defense finished 2016 ninth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), third in yards allowed per game, and sixth in points allowed per game. In short, Minnesota boasted a pretty strong defense, and there is a lot of credit to go around for that performance.

Dec 1, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes (29) during a game at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Cowboys defeated the Vikings 17-15. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Cornerback Xavier Rhodes deserves a great deal of that credit. Rhodes, whom the Vikings selected in the first round of the 2013 draft, turned in the best season of his career in 2016, which earned him his first Pro Bowl nod. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics were fairly kind to his overall effort, as Rhodes graded out as the 29th-best corner in the league out of 111 qualified players, but PFF really loved his performance against the run, where he graded as the top CB in football. Whatever issues he had in coverage he helped to make up for with his five interceptions, one of which he returned 100 yards for a score.

Minnesota picked up Rhodes’ fifth-year option last year, so he is currently under contract through 2017, and he is set to earn a tidy $8.026MM this season. But that doesn’t mean Rhodes wouldn’t be open to a long-term deal, and the Vikings do have a history of signing key players to extensions during contract years. Indeed, we heard back in February that the team was expected to begin negotiating a new contract with Rhodes, and while there have been no public reports of such negotiations, it does not appear that either side has put a deadline on contract talks. As such, it could be that a deal gets hammered out at some point during the season.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry says Desmond Trufant‘s recent extension with the Falcons could serve as a barometer for Rhodes’ negotiations with Minnesota. Trufant, whose total contract value is currently the third-highest in the league among cornerbacks — and who was drafted three picks ahead of Rhodes — pulled down a five-year, $68.75MM deal from Atlanta, including $41.53MM in guaranteed money. In addition to being just about the same age, Trufant and Rhodes are similarly talented players, both solid in coverage and stout against the run, so it would not be a surprise to see Rhodes land a contract that matches or exceeds Trufant’s pact.

Since he became a full-time starter in 2014, Rhodes has also been pretty durable. He started all 16 regular-season contests in 2014 and 2015, and after missing the first two weeks of 2016 with a knee injury, he started and finished the remaining 14 games. The Vikings have about $13.5MM in cap space at the moment (under the Rule of 51), so theoretically they could even front-load a Rhodes extension to give themselves some wiggle room down the road. In any event, expect to see Rhodes and fellow Pro Bowler Harrison Smith sharing Minnesota’s defensive backfield for the next few years.

Extra Points: 49ers, Kelly, Colts, Vikings

John Lynch acknowledged the 49ers‘ effort to add some picks for the 2018 picks may have had an ancillary motivation. The 49ers signed Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley in free agency and used a third-round pick on Iowa’s C.J. Beathard. While the new San Francisco GM hopes Hoyer or Beathard can be the franchise quarterback he covets, he’s aware of the higher-profile passers expected to be part of next year’s talent pool and doesn’t sound averse to adding another passer in 2018. Josh Allen (Wyoming), Josh Rosen (UCLA) and Sam Darnold (USC) headline that group, with Louisville’s Lamar Jackson lurking as a wild-card threat with obvious top-flight athleticism.

I think we have been very up front that we understand that you have to have a big-time franchise quarterback to have success on a year-in-and-year-out basis. We want that and we are aware of that,” Lynch said during a radio interview with KNBR, via the San Francisco Chronicle. “We are hopeful that it’s one of the guys that we already have. There is a quality QB class coming. We just felt like the opportunity to get a lot of players this year that we really valued, plus be able to stockpile for next year as we are trying to rebuild this thing, we want to build this with a nucleus of players that really fit our mold.”

The 49ers acquired 2018 third- and seventh-round picks during draft weekend, the first in the Mitch Trubisky deal with the Bears, and traded a 2018 fourth-rounder to the Broncos for running back Kapri Bibbs.

Here’s the latest from around the league.

  • A player the Broncos selected hours after making that Bibbs trade, Chad Kelly remains in recovery from right wrist surgery. The former Ole Miss quarterback did not throw during Denver’s offseason program but is targeting a return to making passes in two weeks, the rookie said during an NFL Network appearance. This year’s “Mr. Irrelevant,” Kelly comes to Denver with a higher pedigree than most such seventh-round picks but will be behind Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch going into camp. This will likely be a developmental year for Kelly.
  • While the Broncos are set to hold a quarterback competition, the Vikings have a long-term dilemma at the position. None of the three ESPN.com reporters surveyed believe the Vikes should offer Sam Bradford a long-term extension. Bradford’s two-year deal he signed with the Eagles expires at season’s end. Jeff Dickerson and Rob Demovsky would encourage a franchise tag scenario similar to Washington’s Kirk Cousins course of action, while Michael Rothstein said a Bradford deal makes sense only if the 29-year-old signal-caller would be amenable to a one- or two-year pact. Teddy Bridgewater re-emerged to do some on-field work in late May, although the recovering passer has yet to return to official Vikings practice. He has a complex contract situation, but the Vikings did not pick up his fifth-year option.
  • The Colts allocated much of their linebacker funds to adding outside ‘backers, but they did make some investments to help patch some holes inside. They added Sean Spence and Jon Bostic and used a fifth-round pick on Northwestern’s Anthony Walker. Despite Bostic being signed to a one-year deal worth just $690K and having missed the 2016 season due to injury, Colts.com’s Kevin Bowen projects he will claim one of Indianapolis’ starting inside linebacker jobs. Bowen tabs the other spot to be wide open. Bostic hasn’t started more than one game in a season since starting eight for the 2014 Bears.

Community Tailgate: Fifth-Year Options

A few of the NFL’s best players find themselves in contract predicaments due largely to the CBA, and their courses of action could become major issues for their respective teams.

Thanks to the fifth-year option, Odell Beckham Jr., Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack — and many others from a talented 2014 first-round contingent — are tied to the franchises that drafted them for two more seasons as part of their rookie contracts. Despite several of these players having outperformed their deals, none more than the aforementioned trio, these performers are all attached to 2017 salaries far below their market values.

Beckham did not show for Giants OTAs before reporting in advance of minicamp, and although the superstar wideout has downplayed concerns about his contract going into his fourth season, John Mara categorized this extension as a lower-priority matter right now. That likely wouldn’t be the case if Beckham had been a second-round pick.

Donald gave a non-answer regarding a potential training camp holdout. Though he’s been in talks with the team on a new deal, that situation appears to be dragging. The two-time All-Pro has become the league’s top defensive tackle, but his situation doesn’t leave him the kind of leverage then-UFA Ndamukong Suh had when he set the bar at six years and $114MM.

Despite being the defensive player of the year, Mack looks like he will have to wait until 2018 to secure a long-term commitment from the Raiders. While Reggie McKenzie said Mack will be re-signed — likely for more money than any defender has made — the fact that the player who is probably the Raiders’ best has to wait behind other standouts from his draft class simply because Derek Carr and Gabe Jackson‘s deals didn’t include fifth-year options is a loophole. It affects top talents annually.

Other players like Mike Evans, Anthony Barr and Jadeveon Clowney are part of the above group. But in the case of Beckham, Mack and Donald, these are three elite NFL talents who are tied to modest amounts while lesser players from the ’14 draft are prioritized because they are entering their contract years. Von Miller and Muhammad Wilkerson had to wait five years for their extensions, with teams also having the more lucrative franchise tag to apply as a stall tactic. It worked out for those stalwart defenders, but this system creates drama consistently.

Teddy Bridgewater can be used as an example of it backfiring, although the timing was different. The Vikings declined Bridgewater’s fifth-year option months after his knee injury put his career in jeopardy. While Bridgewater was not eligible for an extension at the time he was hurt, the Vikings almost certainly would have picked up his option in March to keep him around on an $11MM-plus salary in 2018. Now, the quarterback’s camp could be preparing for a battle since a PUP list stay could cause the fourth-year passer’s contract to toll, thus tying him to his Year 4 salary ($2.18MM) for another season. That would be quite the fall after being in line for a possible extension down the road.

Attached to respective salaries of $3.23MM, $3.31MM and $5.94MM, Donald, Beckham and Mack don’t have many courses of action. They could hold out, however, to apply pressure to their teams.

The Giants and Raiders wouldn’t be the same without their superstar 2014 draftees, and while the Rams haven’t made the playoffs with Donald around and are in more of a rebuilding phase now, they would certainly be weakened without Donald’s services. But the players could incur $30K fines per day by doing this. That’s not exactly a harsh deterrent to someone who stands to sign for more than $100MM at some point, but given that such money isn’t assured yet, these penalties would be more severe.

These options have turned out to be quite team-friendly, despite the pay increases that come in Year 5. They also delay a first-rounders’ prospective free agencies as peers chosen in later rounds venture onto the open market, forcing teams to pay for another prime year of service. Robert Griffin III and D.J. Fluker found out how unfriendly the options can be to players after their teams rescinded them free of charge over the past two offseasons.

But this setup is the law until a new CBA emerges. For the time being, fourth- or fifth-year players who feel they’ve outperformed their deals will be thrust into uncertainty the way some of their peers drafted later aren’t.

So, should talents like Beckham and Donald follow through with holdouts to ratchet up the pressure? Or would showing goodwill toward their teams by working until an extension comes be a better course of action? Should teams display more expediency regarding these deals to avoid these situations, in an effort to show future players they are valued? Or are the pay bumps that come in Year 5 enough to justify the delays? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

AFC Notes: Steelers, Jackson, Bills

Le’Veon Bell has recovered from offseason groin surgery. The Steelers running back has been playing pickup basketball in Los Angeles while his representatives discuss what would be a landmark extension, one that almost certainly would make Bell the NFL’s highest-paid running back. The fifth-year runner didn’t elaborate much on the process, though.

I’m good with everything, just taking it day to day for real,” Bell said, via Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com.

Attached to a $12.1MM franchise tag, Bell is the only player given the tag who did not sign his tender or agree to a long-term extension this offseason. Adam Schefter of ESPN.com noted this week the proposition of a Bell/Steelers pact “could go either way.” LeSean McCoy‘s $8MM-per-year salary is the current running back ceiling, but the 25-year-old Bell’s likely aiming to exceed that by quite a bit.

Here’s the latest from around the league.

  • One of Bell’s Steelers teammates did not have a good end to the work week. Miami Beach police arrested Artie Burns for driving with a suspended license Thursday night, Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald reports. Burns was unable to provide a driver’s license and had back tickets totaling approximately $1,000, Fowler reports (Facebook link). The cornerback was released from custody on Friday. The Steelers have not commented on the incident.
  • Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap (Twitter links) is a bit surprised by the size of Gabe Jackson‘s deal with the Raiders. Even with growing salaries for guards, Fitzgerald did not expect Jackson to fetch a five-year, $56MM extension with $26MM in guarantees. It could be a sign of things to come in Oakland and Fitzgerald believes that linebacker Khalil Mack will wind up as the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL by a healthy margin when that deal gets done. As we learned Thursday, Mack will probably have to wait until next year to get his extension.
  • The Bills‘ move back to a 4-3 look will benefit its personnel more than Rex Ryan‘s 3-4 did, Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News writes. In addition to Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams moving back to their natural spots inside, the Bills should have a better chance of seeing what they have in Shaq Lawson. Carucci notes Lawson never felt comfortable as a 3-4 outside linebacker — a position he’d never before played — and is a much better fit as a 4-3 end. Meanwhile, the Bills should be able to coax more from Jerry Hughes now that he’s back at end, with Carucci pointing out Ryan’s schemes at times called for the natural pass rusher to execute pass-coverage assignments. Hughes totaled 10 sacks apiece as a 4-3 end during the 2013 and ’14 seasons but combined for just 11 over the past two years.

Zach Links contributed to this report.

West Rumors: Lynch, Kap, Rams, Bolts

John Lynch has vouched for Colin Kaepernick‘s desire to play football throughout this offseason, but the new 49ers GM doesn’t think all of his peers believe him. Lynch said it would be in Kaepernick’s best interests to communicate these desires to remain in the league publicly.

I would tell you with my conversations with Colin, he is fully committed to wanting to be in this league,” Lynch said during an interview with San Francisco radio station KNBR (via Pro Football Talk). “I gave that opinion to Colin myself: ‘I think you are having a little bit of an image crisis in terms of, not so much what you did last year, but people are wondering: Is this most important to you?’ At a position where the guys who succeed at the position are the guys who live it, breathe it, the CEOs at that position. And I think there is a perception that football is not at the top of the list.”

Kaepernick remains a UFA despite several less accomplished quarterbacks landing backup jobs. While he visited the Seahawks and has maintained a public profile on social media, he hasn’t spoken out about his football career this offseason. Late last month, a 49ers employee questioned Kaepernick’s commitment to football, saying he only wants to return to stay relevant.

Here’s more from the Western divisions, first shifting to the 49ers’ Los Angeles-based rival.

  • During Day 2 of the draft, the Rams traded down from No. 37 to 44 and picked up an extra third-round pick from the Bills. Sixth-year GM Les Snead said during Amazon’s “All or Nothing: A Season with the Los Angeles Rams” that he doesn’t get too attached to second-round talents because he’s confident offers will be there to trade out of the spot and stockpile more selections. “You don’t want to pick early second [round] often,” Snead told new HC Sean McVay (via Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com). “But when you’re picking early second, never fall in love with a player. You’ll always get an extra third[-round pick].” The Rams selected safety John Johnson with that third-round pick.
  • McVay’s presence and the addition of multiple wideouts this offseason will help Jared Goff, with Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com noting that McVay’s newer-age offense will benefit last year’s No. 1 overall pick more than the Rams’ previous “antiquated” attack. The Rams ranked last in total offense by more than 40 yards last season, at 262.7 per game. The team added Robert Woods in free agency and used third- and fourth-round picks, respectively, on Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds.
  • The Chargers signed a 10-year lease at their new facility in Costa Mesa, Calif., Jack Wang of the Orange County Register reports. The team is committed to lodge there for at least five years, per Wang, who adds that the Bolts have until the end of this month to depart their facility at Chargers Park in their previous city. Costa Mesa is currently serving as the Bolts’ temporary home, but the team hasn’t ruled out staying there on a longer-term basis. Wang reports the Chargers are still looking to secure permanent headquarters elsewhere in the region.

Poll: Who Is Patriots’ Top AFC Challenger?

An offseason that saw the Patriots trade several draft picks for immediate help leaves the defending Super Bowl champions as the favorite to at least defend their AFC title. Las Vegas is inclined to agree, with top sites showing a sizable odds gap between the Patriots and the AFC’s other contenders.

But if there’s a line of demarcation between the Pats and their competition, there doesn’t appear to be much of one separating the challenger tier. Several teams can make cases they are in the best position to push the Pats.

This conference hasn’t featured much parity this century, with only the 2012 Ravens infiltrating the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Ben Roethlisberger rotation on the Lamar Hunt Trophy since the 2002 season. The Steelers are certainly in this conversation, but what about a team not steeped in modern excellence?

Certainly, you’d first look to the AFC West as the division housing the most viable threats. The Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos reside among Vegas’ top challenging prospects, but none is without issue going into training camp.

The defending division champions just cut the player most figured would be their No. 1 wide receiver and fired their GM three weeks later. While the departures of Jeremy Maclin and John Dorsey aren’t necessarily deal-breakers for the Chiefs’ effort, they also did not do much to help their cause in free agency and used their top draft choices on players who might not see the field much in 2017. While Kansas City went 6-0 against its divisional brethren in 2016 en route to its first playoff bye since 2003, the Chiefs have not reached an AFC championship game in more than 20 years and have lost narrow divisional-round contests to more proven playoff franchises in the past two.

The Raiders are receiving more preseason hype and used June to lock in pieces of their core long-term in extending Derek Carr and Gabe Jackson. The team now has a mixture of hired guns and homegrown cogs to make a legitimate push after a long time away from the spotlight. Already possessing an ascending franchise quarterback and a top-flight offensive line, Oakland bolstered its offense with additions of Jared Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson and Marshawn Lynch. The Silver and Black, though, have not established much defensive success — Khalil Mack‘s dominance notwithstanding — and still have uncertainty on that unit.

Denver’s enjoyed the most success in stopping New England runs in recent years, but the Broncos’ run of playoff berths stalled at five last season. The defensive nucleus that spearheaded the Super Bowl 50 title remains, but the Broncos now have a new coach and new coordinators. They also have yet to establish a quarterback plan, and their offensive line has notable questions after a rough year. They did spend quite a bit to upgrade up front, however, and showed two years ago they don’t need a great offense to win a title.

While the Steelers have proven they can win in January, they didn’t fare well in Foxboro. Although they weren’t exactly a healthy operation by the AFC title game, the Steelers did not account themselves well that night. They might be the No. 1 AFC contender based on Roethlisberger and host of skill-position threats, but while the Patriots added several new pieces this offseason, the Steelers continued their cautious strategy when it comes to outside talent procurement. But the defending AFC North champions do return a strong outfit capable of making an AFC charge.

The AFC South houses the team that ranked No. 1 defensively last season, doing so without J.J. Watt for the most part, but the Texans also are without an immediate quarterback answer. Deshaun Watson could prove to be that in due time, but for the purposes of 2017, this query will follow Houston despite its defense’s potential. The Titans made a big jump last season and added some weaponry in 2017. They figure to make matters tougher on another Texans division crown. The Dolphins also ended their playoff drought and have an intriguing skill-position corps. Ryan Tannehill remains a question mark, though, as far as January viability goes, and Miami’s defense struggled in 2016.

So, who will be the top threat to stop the Patriots from repeating in the AFC? Who did we leave off that has a legitimate opportunity this season? Take PFR’s latest poll and drop your sleeper picks in the comments section.

Who is the Patriots' top AFC challenger?

  • Oakland Raiders 43% (777)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers 26% (463)
  • Other 16% (292)
  • Kansas City Chiefs 7% (124)
  • Denver Broncos 4% (77)
  • Houston Texans 4% (66)

Total votes: 1,799