2018 March - Pro Football Rumors

Month: March 2018

Top 3 Offseason Needs: New Orleans Saints

March 5th, 2018 at 8:07pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New Orleans Saints, who finished with an 11-5 record before suffering a devastating loss to the Vikings in the Divisional Round.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Jack Allen, C (ERFA)
Delvin Breaux, CB (RFA)
Drew Brees, QB
Rafael Bush, S
Brandon Coleman, WR (RFA)
Chase Daniel, QB
Kasim Edebali, DE
Jonathan Freeny, LB
Clay Harbor, TE
Gerald Hodges, LB
John Hughes, DT
George Johnson, DE
Senio Kelemete, OL
John Kuhn, FB
Josh LeRibeus, OL
Zach Line, FB
Michael Mauti, LB
Tony McDaniel, DT
Sterling Moore, CB
Alex Okafor, DE
David Parry, DT (RFA)
Willie Snead, WR (RFA)
Kenny Vaccaro, S
Zach Wood, LS (ERFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Cameron Jordan, DE: $14,247,000
Terron Armstead, T: $13,500,000
Larry Warford, G: $9,000,000
Max Unger, C: $8,000,000
Coby Fleener, TE: $8,000,000
Mark Ingram, RB: $6,245,000
Drew Brees, QB: $6,000,000 (dead money)
Nick Fairley, DT: $6,000,000 (dead money)
A.J. Klein, LB: $5,200,000
Thomas Morstead, P: $4,850,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $31,065,354
27th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for G Andrus Peat

Three Needs:

1) Re-sign Drew Brees: The entire Saints’ offseason hinges on re-signing 39-year-old quarterback Drew Brees. Nearly every report has indicated Brees wants to return to New Orleans, and it’s frankly difficult to imagine him leaving for another club. General manager Mickey Loomis & Co. had planned meet with Brees and his representatives at the scouting combine over the next week, and Brees’ unique contract structure means the two sides must agree to a new deal before the 2018 league year begins on March 14.

Brees worked out a one-year extension in September 2016 that locked him up through the 2017 campaign. Technically, the pact runs through the 2020 season, but the typically cap-strapped Saints used three void years in order to spread out Brees’ $30MM signing bonus. Signing bonuses prorate on NFL salary caps, so tacking on “fake” seasons to the end of a contract allow clubs to save cap space in the present while knowing they’ll have to pay the bill down the line.

Because Brees was given a $30MM signing bonus, the Saints are responsible for a $6MM cap charge ($30MM divided by five years) in each season of the deal. Brees’ contract will void on March 14, and if he hasn’t inked a new agreement at that point, the remaining $18MM in signing bonus proration will immediately accelerate onto New Orleans’ 2018 salary cap. What the Saints need to do, then, is extend Brees for a few more years, which would allow them to once again spread out that remaining $18MM.

If the Saints’ history of salary cap management is any indication, they’ll attempt to kick the can down the road again by signing Brees to a new contract that contains more void seasons. A five-year deal that contains a void provision after year two would allow New Orleans to retain Brees for the time being while giving the team even more wherewithal to spread out his signing bonus. Yes, such a plan would simply force the Saints to address Brees’ deal again in say, 2020, but given that New Orleans is squarely in its contention window, Loomis can afford to sort out any contractual problems when the time comes.

For what it’s worth, there’s little question the Saints need to retain Brees despite his advanced age and the surprisingly large number of quarterback alternatives available this offseason. Brees didn’t post his typically gaudy offensive statistics in 2017, but that was largely by design, as he attempted only 536 pass attempts, his lowest in a full 16-game slate since 2005 (his final year with the Chargers).

New Orleans built an offense that doesn’t have to fully rely on Brees, as the club ranked first in rushing DVOA and second in pressure rate allowed. Buoyed by Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and a strong offensive line, Brees ranked second in passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt, and third in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA, which measures value on a per-play basis.

2) Back to the drawing board opposite Cameron Jordan: The Saints struck gold in 2017 by inking former Cardinals edge rusher Alex Okafor to a one-year, $3MM deal. After years of trying (and failing) to find a defensive end to play alongside standout Cameron Jordan, New Orleans finally landed Okafor, who graded as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 22 edge defender before going down with a torn Achilles in late November. With Okafor in tow, the Saints ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate, their best showing since 2013, and finished 11th in pressure rate.

Okafor was one of the best one-year signings in the NFL a season ago, and the now 27-year-old has indicated that he’d like to return to New Orleans in 2018. While the Saints could explore a new deal with Okafor, they shouldn’t overpay to do so. Okafor didn’t have much of a market last season, and New Orleans doesn’t need to reward him for a (admittedly solid) 10-game sample. If Okafor is willing to re-sign for the $3MM he landed last year, the Saints should be interested. But given that he’s coming off an Achilles injury (which could limit his explosion and first step going forward), Okafor doesn’t need to be a high priority for New Orleans.

The Saints could also look at other internal options before scouring the free agent market in search of edge defenders. Trey Hendrickson was a third-round draft pick last year, and he offered an adequate performance as a situational rusher during his rookie campaign. On 235 pass-rushing snaps, Hendrickson put up 13 quarterback pressures. If New Orleans believes Hendrickson could advance to a full-time role in 2018, the club may not need to find another defensive end. The Saints also have 2017 sixth-rounder Al-Quadin Muhammad on the roster, but the Rutgers product only played 24 defensive snaps last season.Read more

While New Orleans could certainly target an established veteran such as Julius Peppers, it might make more sense for the team to look for another low-cost option akin to Okafor in 2017. Among the candidates who could be on the Saints’ radar is Jeremiah Attaochu, a former-second round pick who has never been able to flourish with the Chargers. He’s also appeared in only 12 games over the past two seasons while dealing with injuries, so the 25-year-old shouldn’t be too expensive. I wonder if the Saints could also take a look at Marcus Smith, the failed former Eagles first-round pick who spent 2017 with the Seahawks. Neither Smith nor Attaochu should be guaranteed starting jobs, but New Orleans could pair them with Hendrickson and hope one flashes.

Another player acquisition avenue the Saints could consider is the trade market. Robert Quinn was just dealt for fourth- and sixth-round picks, and while there’s no indication New Orleans was in on those talks, Quinn’s price could provide a baseline for other defensive end trade prices. The Eagles are reportedly trying to trade Vinny Curry before releasing him, and the Saints could be a fit, especially if they can reduce Curry’s 2018 $9MM base salary. The 29-year-old Curry is an excellent run defender, and produced pressure despite his low sack total. New Orleans could also offer a mid-round pick for the Jaguars’ Dante Fowler Jr., who has one year and a fifth-year option remaining on his rookie contract but is dealing with legal issues and only played 44% of Jacksonville’s defensive snaps in 2017.

3) Add youthful pass-catchers: The Saints finished sixth in passing DVOA last year, but that doesn’t mean they can’t aim to improve their offensive weaponry this offseason. Michael Thomas has blossomed into a genuine star, but Ted Ginn is entering his age-33 season, Willie Snead was a non-factor in 2017 and is now a restricted free agent, and Brandon Coleman has never been able to perfect his Marques Colston/”big slot” impression. At tight end, Coby Fleener hasn’t lived up to his five-year, $36MM contract, and while he’ll likely remain on New Orleans’ roster after the majority of his 2018 base salary guaranteed last month, the Saints could target upgrades.

While I wouldn’t expect the Saints to go after any high-priced free agents next week, Jordan Matthews could make sense if the club wants to get a new slot receiver. Matthews could essentially serve as a turbo-charged Coleman, as his ability to work at the short-to-intermediate level should mesh well with Brees’ strengths. Matthews is only 25 years old, but given that ended the 2017 season on injured reserve after dealing with knee and ankle injuries, he shouldn’t be too expensive. Other free agent wideouts that may be of interest to New Orleans include Donte Moncrief (Colts), John Brown (Cardinals), or Jaron Brown (Cardinals).

More likely, the Saints will look to add a young wide receiver via the draft, and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com sent Texas A&M’s Christian Kirk to New Orleans in his most recent mock draft. Kirk should be an immediate contributor in the slot, according to Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com, and would also offer return ability. Calvin Ridley‘s stock seems to be slipping at the moment, so it’s not out of the question the Alabama product could fall to pick No. 27, while Courtland Sutton (Southern Methodist) and James Washington (Oklahoma State) could also be in consideration.

At tight end, a reunion with Jimmy Graham would certainly be fascinating. In his final four seasons with the Saints, Graham averaged 89 receptions, 1,099 yards, and 12 touchdowns per year, and while that production came during Graham’s age-25 to age-28 campaigns (he’s now 31), it’s worth considering if he could once again flourish with Brees and head coach Sean Payton. Tyler Eifert is likely the only other free agent tight end New Orleans should consider, and he’s somewhat similar to Graham in that he’s a beast in the red zone. Eifert, of course, has struggled to maintain any semblance of health during his five-year career, but he could be in line for an incentive-based deal that wouldn’t harm the Saints’ salary cap in 2018.

Similar to wide receiver, it’s possible the Saints eschew the free agent market in favor of the draft. The top three tight end prospects are generally understood as Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State), Mark Andrews (Oklahoma), and Hayden Hurst (South Carolina). Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com sent Hurst to New Orleans in his most recent mock draft, noting that Hurst’s advanced rookie age (25) could be a concern for some clubs. Andrews, notably, isn’t a blocker, and Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compared him — in an unfavorable way — to Fleener. Other draftable tight ends of note include Mike Gesicki (Penn State), Ian Thomas (Indiana), and Dalton Schultz (Stanford).

Bills Express Interest In RB Frank Gore

March 5th, 2018 at 7:42pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Bills have expressed interest in veteran running back Frank Gore, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. Gore himself was “eyeing” the Packers, per Barrows, but Green Bay has indicated its comfortable with its current running back depth chart.

The Colts have no intention of re-signing Gore, but the 34-year-old believes he can play for at least one more NFL campaign, reports Barrows. However, he has specific conditions for which he is searching in his next team. First, Gore wants to be a contributor — while it doesn’t sound as though Gore will require a starting role, he clearly wants to be significantly involved in an offense. Second, Gore prefers to play for a contender in what could be his final NFL season.

While Buffalo would meet that second criterion after earning a postseason berth in 2017, the Bills wouldn’t be able to offer Gore anything close to a starting job. LeSean McCoy finished second in the NFL with 287 carries a season ago, and he’s likely to be Buffalo’s offensive focal point in 2018. The Bills might aim to limit McCoy’s touches as he enters his 30s, but Mike Tolbert — Buffalo’s No. 2 running back last year — handled only 66 carries in 2017.

That Green Bay would not be interested in adding Gore shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as the club has several young running backs on its roster. The Packers drafted three running backs in 2017, and two of them — Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones — showed the upside of a long-term starter in their rookie seasons. The other rookie, Devante Mays, is still in Green Bay, as is Ty Montgomery, the wideout-turned-back who was the Packers’ starter to open the year.

Now hoping to play his 14th NFL campaign, Gore averaged only 3.7 yards per carry on 261 rushes while scoring three times last season. While he wasn’t a key part of the Colts’ passing attack, he did manage 29 receptions for 245 yards and one touchdown. If he’s active in 2017, Gore will almost certainly pass Curtis Martin for fourth on the all-time rushing yards list.

Demarcus Lawrence Signs Franchise Tag

March 5th, 2018 at 6:56pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Cowboys defensive end Demarcus Lawrence has signed his franchise tag, according to his agent David Canter (Twitter link). Lawrence wasted no time in inking his tender, as Dallas had just formally applied the tag this afternoon.

As the NFL announced earlier tonight, the franchise tender figure for defensive ends has been set at $17.143MM. By signing his tag, Lawrence has fully guaranteed himself that total. On an annual basis, Lawrence will become the highest-paid defensive end in the league, although the Lions’ Ezekiel Ansah — who will surely ink his own franchise tag in the near future — will shortly join him atop the list.

Dallas indicated early in the offseason that it would deploy the franchise tag on Lawrence if no long-term deal was reached by the tag deadline, which occurs on Tuesday. Lawrence, who turns 26 years old next month, now has until July 16 to work out an extension with the Cowboys. If no comes together by that date, Lawrence must play out the 2018 campaign on the franchise tender.

A former second-round pick, Lawrence put up the best season of his four-year career in 2017. He started all 16 games and finished second in the league with 14.5 sacks, led the NFL with 57 pressures, and graded as the third-best edge rusher among 106 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus.

With Lawrence’s large 2018 base salary on the books, the Cowboys are now extremely tight on cap space (per Over the Cap, Dallas could currently have fewer than $200K in funds). That’s the fourth-lowest amount of cap room in the league, meaning the Cowboys will need to make further transactions in order to comply with the cap. Dez Bryant and Orlando Scandrick have been mentioned as candidates for release, while Dallas might also extend Zack Martin in a move that would reduce his 2018 cap charge.

2018 Franchise, Transition, RFA Salaries

March 5th, 2018 at 6:53pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The NFL has officially set the 2018 salary cap at $177.2MM, an increase of about $10MM from the 2017 season. That uptick means franchise and transition tags, as well as restricted free agent salaries, will also see a bump. Here are the values for the 2018 season, courtesy of a league announcement and Joel Corry of CBSSports.com (Twitter link)

Restricted free agent tenders:

First round tender: $4.149MM
Second round tender: $2.914MM
Original round/right of first refusal: $1.907MM

For more information on these subjects, check out the Pro Football Glossary entries on franchise/transition tags and restricted free agency.

2018 NFL Salary Cap Set At $177.2MM

March 5th, 2018 at 6:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The NFL has informed teams that the 2018 salary cap will be set at $177.2MM, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL.com (Twitter link).

The salary cap will continue the incredible upward trajectory it has been on since 2013. Here’s what the league’s salary cap has looked like over the last few years:

2013: $123MM
2014: $133MM
2015: $143.28MM
2016: $155.27MM
2017: $167MM

The NFL’s management council submitted their first 2018 cap projections to the league’s owners in January. Initial projections for the cap came in at $174.2-$178.1MM, so the $177.2MM figure fits squarely into that range. The salary cap, of course, affects not only teams’ roster moves for the entire season, but the figures used in franchise/transition tag calculations.

Rams To Host CB Sam Shields

March 5th, 2018 at 5:46pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Free agent cornerback Sam Shields will meet with the Rams on Tuesday, according to Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Shields is also planning on visiting with the Browns in the near future, but his meeting with Los Angeles will occur first, per Cohen.

Shields, now 30 years old, suffered the fifth concussion of his career in Green Bay’s 2016 season opener and hasn’t played since. He spent the rest of that 2016 campaign on injured reserve, and the Packers subsequently released him once the season concluded. Shields never drew any interest during the 2017 free agent period, but he’s now back to working on practice fields with the intent of playing in 2018.

It’s unclear if any team will take a chance on Shields, especially given the NFL’s continued focus on head injuries. Shields is confident he will be signed this spring, while at least one personnel executive recently told Cohen that Shields could land a deal if his health checks out. For what it’s worth, Shields says he will end his playing career if he suffers even one more concussion, reports Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal.

Shields, who served as Green Bay’s No. 1 corner for a three-year stretch, agreed to forgo free agency in 2014 by agreeing to a four-year, $39MM deal. A former undrafted free agent, Shields spent seven years with the Packers, starting 62 games and racking up 18 interceptions during that span. He earned a Pro Bowl nod in 2014.

The Rams, for their part, have already acquired a new shutdown defensive back, as their trade for ex-Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters will become official when the new league year begins on March 14. Trumaine Johnson remains unlikely to re-sign with Los Angeles, and Nickell Robey-Coleman is a pending free agent, leaving the Rams with Kayvon Webster, Troy Hill, and Blake Countess, among others, behind Peters.

Jets Officially Release Muhammad Wilkerson

March 5th, 2018 at 4:57pm CST by Zachary Links

The Jets are finally, officially, parting ways with Muhammad Wilkerson. Gang Green formally released the defensive lineman on Monday, per a team announcement.

Wilkerson’s exit from New York has been long anticipated, particularly since the Jets notified him of their plans to cut him over the winter. Once a hard-working and highly-productive member of the Jets’ defensive line, Wilkerson’s drive to succeed and production tanked after signing a five-year, $86MM extension with the team in the summer of 2016.

Last year, things came to a head when Wilkerson was openly subordinate towards Jets coaches and tardy for multiple team functions. In December, the Jets benched the defensive lineman for the first quarter of their game against the Chiefs. The Jets went on to upset KC without one of their highest-paid players on the field at the outset.

Wilkerson’s $16.75MM salary was set to go from guaranteed against injury to fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year. Gang Green will carry $9MM in dead money by releasing the 28-year-old Wilkerson. Meanwhile, Wilkerson leaves New York after pocketing $36.75MM from his ill-fated extension.

Wilkerson shouldn’t have any trouble finding a new deal on the open market, and he’s reportedly already lined up a visit with the Packers, who now employ former Jets defensive coordinator in the same role. Notably, Wilkerson will not count against the 2019 compensatory pick formula given that he was released.

Falcons, K Matt Bryant Agree To Extension

March 5th, 2018 at 4:37pm CST by Zachary Links

Another potential free agent kicker is off the board. The Falcons and kicker Matt Bryant have agreed to a three-year extension, according to a team announcement.

Bryant’s new deal is worth $10.5MM and contains a $2MM signing bonus, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (Twitter link). The pact also comes with an incentive package that could take the total value of the contract to $12MM. On an annual basis, Bryant is now the eighth-highest paid kicker in the NFL after receiving what amounts to a $670K yearly raise.

Bryant will turn 43 years old before the 2018 season starts, but he still looked sharp last season. In 2017, he nailed 87.2% of his field goals, good for 12th in the NFL. He also sank eight-of-nine attempts from 50 yards or more, so his power hasn’t deteriorated much.

Earlier this offseason, the Colts re-upped their own aging kicker in Adam Vinatieri, even though he turned 45 in December. The Titans also locked down a would-be free agent kicker in Ryan Succop when they inked him to a five-year, $20MM extension in February.

Panthers kicker Graham Gano might be the next big leg to sign a multi-year deal. Carolina is working on an extension with the 30-year-old (31 in April) and they’ll probably franchise tag him on Tuesday if no accord can be reached.

Bryant won’t make it to the open market, but other notable kickers will, including Sebastian Janikowski, Chandler Catanzaro, Caleb Sturgis, and Kai Forbath.

Le’Veon Bell, Steelers Far Apart

March 5th, 2018 at 4:25pm CST by Zachary Links

So much for the positive updates on talks between Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers. On the eve of the league’s franchise tagging deadline, the running back says that the two sides are far apart in talks (via ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler). Furthermore, Bell added that he was not bluffing in January when he said that he is contemplating retirement if he does not get the kind of deal he is after.

“We’re not coming to a number we both agree on — they are too low, or I guess they feel I’m too high,” Bell said. “I’m playing for strictly my value to the team, that’s what I’m asking. I don’t think I should settle for anything less than what I’m valued at.”

Instead of looking at his value in terms of what he brings to the Steelers, Bell gets the sense that the team is putting a greater focus on the running back market as a whole. Currently, Falcons tailback Devonta Freeman stands as the game’s highest-paid running back at $8.25MM per year. Bell has previously stated that he wants a deal that reflects his value not just as a runner, but as a lethal pass catcher. He remains more optimistic about talks than he was last year, but he doesn’t see anything coming together between now and Tuesday afternoon.

“We might get something done,” Bell said. “I’m hoping for something to get done but I’m not expecting it to [before Tuesday].”

As it stands, the Steelers are expected to tag Bell for a second consecutive season, this time at the inflated cost of $14.544MM. The mechanism, in theory, would keep Bell in place for the 2018 season, but his retirement threat could throw a wrench into plans, depending on how seriously it is received by the Steelers.

Rams To Tag Either Watkins Or Joyner

March 5th, 2018 at 3:26pm CST by Zachary Links

The Rams have two franchise tag candidates in wide receiver Sammy Watkins and safety Lamarcus Joyner. One of those players will receive the tag on Tuesday, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets, but they have yet to decide which one.

By tagging one of the players, the Rams will guarantee that they will not lose both players to unrestricted free agency. However, if they cannot come to terms on a deal with either Watkins or Joyner before March 14, they’ll risk losing a key cog to the open market.

Late last month, it was reported that the Rams are leaning towards tagging Joyner over Watkins. Joyner would represent the cheaper tag as the projected cost for safeties is just over $11MM. Tagging Watkins would be more costly at a rate of about $16.23MM.

There’s more to the decision than just the Rams’ evaluation of each player and the cost. For all of Watkins’ drawbacks, including a dicey health history and a down year in 2017, he stands as one of the best potential free agents at his position. If the Rams do not tag him, they’ll be embroiled in a bidding war with other WR-needy teams and his price could quickly become too rich for their blood. Joyner, meanwhile, may profile as the best safety on the market, but there are other quality options near the top including Morgan Burnett, Kenny Vaccaro, Tre Boston, and Eric Reid.

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