Sunday Roundup: Texans, Cowboys, Panthers
We wrote last week about the dilemma quarterback-needy teams will face in the first-round of the draft, and Ben Volin of the Boston Globe provides a specific example of how overvaluation of the quarterback position can lead to disastrous results. Volin describes how Charlie Casserly, former GM of the Texans, over-inflated the value of David Carr in 2002 because he believed the team needed to hit the ground running with a solid, if unspectacular, signal-caller.
Like this year’s crop of top QBs, those in 2002 had some intriguing upside along with equally troubling drawbacks. As the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock has stated about the 2014 class, “the more tape I watch…the more questions I have.” Will current Houston GM Rick Smith take the highest-rated prospect in the draft–Jadeveon Clowney–and avoid the temptation that having an unsettled quarterback situation creates (as Casserly now admits he should have done with Julius Peppers, the top prospect in the 2002 class)? Or do Smith and his staff believe strongly enough in one of the top QBs to pull the trigger?
As we delve into some more draft notes from around the league, it is worth noting this little nugget that Volin passes along from a current NFL executive: “Isn’t it ironic that every team that perceivably needs a quarterback this year signed one in free agency?”
And now onto those notes:
- Mike Klis of the Denver Post writes that the Broncos figure to devote their greatest attention to inside linebacker and cornerback in the draft. Klis tweets that if QBs start to fall, he expects Denver to try and trade up to grab a top player at one of those positions. One such trade-up target might be Alabama’s C.J. Mosley. Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post writes that Denver’s defense would be dominant with Mosley on-board.
- Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that he would not be surprised if the Cowboys took a WR with their No. 16 overall selection to pair with Dez Bryant.
- Commenting on the depth of this year’s WR class and the history of players drafted at that position, Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer writes that the Panthers, who are in need of a receiver, are just as likely to find a long-term contributor later on in the draft as they are at the top of the draft.
- Paul Schwartz of the New York Post writes that what the Giants do in the first round of the draft–i.e. whether or not they take an offensive tackle–will demonstrate how they feel about the status of Will Beatty, who is coming off a terrible season and a fractured right leg.
- Brian Costello of the New York Post writes that the Jets will not rule out drafting a QB.
- ESPN.com’s Field Yates (subscription required) explains why he believes the Buccaneers should take Texas A&M receiver Mike Evans with the No. 7 overall pick.
AFC North Notes: More Draft Discussion
After the 2014 NFL draft, despite pleas and caveats that the quality of any team’s draft class cannot be determined until at least 2017, there will be innumerable beat writers and national writers giving each club a grade for its draft haul. These post-draft evaluations are just as much a part of NFL draft coverage as the countless iterations of mock drafts that seem to be created earlier and earlier every year.
Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, however, goes all the way back to the 1974 draft to show how one class of players, one collection of rookies, can have stunning and far-reaching impacts on a team’s fortunes for years, and even decades. In 1974, the Steelers boasted one of the greatest draft classes in NFL history, landing four future Hall of Famers in their first five picks, including Lynn Swann and Jack Lambert.
The Browns, meanwhile, traded their 1974 first-round selection and a 1975 second-rounder to San Diego in exchange for so-so linebacker Bob Babich. They also traded their third-rounder to Denver for backup QB Don Horn, and they traded their fourth-rounder to the Raiders for WR Gloster Richardson. With their one pick that remained in the first four rounds, the Browns selected tackle Billy Corbett, who never played in an NFL game. They did not fare much better in the rest of the draft.
The Browns were therefore unable to supplement their aging roster, and they would not make the playoffs again until 1980. They would not win another playoff game until 1986. Not that the 1974 draft had everything to do with that downward spiral, or the run of futility that followed their brief spurt of success in the mid-1980s, but when considered in conjunction with Pittsburgh’s record of success since that time, it gives one an extra reason to look to the events of this week with increased anticipation (or anxiety).
Now for some AFC North notes:
- In a separate piece, Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review notes that cornerback is the biggest position of need for the Steelers, but the quality of the cornerback class and the lack of a consensus No. 1 player in that group will make for a tough decision if that’s the direction Pittsburgh chooses with the No. 15 overall pick.
- Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette looks at how the Steelers should utilize their nine draft picks this week to maximize the chances that the class representing the 40th anniversary of the 1974 draft will be just as productive for Pittsburgh as that 1974 collection was.
- Paul Dehner, Jr. of The Cincinnati Enquirer looks at the machinations of the Bengals scouting department and how that group has turned the Bengals into a consistent winner again.
- ESPN.con’s Jamison Hensley describes how highly the Ravens value small school prospects and the success they have had with such prospects (with Joe Flacco and Lardarius Webb serving as examples).
- Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal writes that the Browns should avoid a QB with their No. 4 overall pick and she goes on to describe how she believes the team should approach this draft.
Bills May Be Sold By July
The sale of the Bills is moving at a “brisk pace” and the team could be sold as early as July, writes John Wawrow of the Associated Press. Contractually, the Bills must stay in Buffalo until 2019, but the goal is to secure the team’s presence there for much longer than that.
Given the anticipation that the team could be sold within the next several months, governor Andrew Cuomo has redoubled his efforts to prevent the Bills from relocating. As Wawrow writes, “The state intends to hire a consulting firm over the next week to produce a report within three months that would be issued to prospective owners. The report would identify potential stadium sites and outline public financing options that would be made available.”
The consulting firm would work in conjunction with Irwin Raij, a partner with the law firm Foley & Lardner who played a critical role in the 10-year lease agreement that gave the Bills a “one-time out” in 2020. As the early offers to buy the team appear to be legitimate and competitive, Cuomo is hoping to at least get the framework of a plan to keep the Bills in Buffalo in place as soon as possible. More details will certainly follow in the coming weeks.
Prospect Profile: Chris Borland
Although our series of prospect profiles thus far has focused primarily on players projected to go in the first round, Wisconsin linebacker Chris Borland has been receiving a good deal of attention in the press as of late, so we thought it might make sense to explore what he has to offer. Indeed, for teams that are looking for a quality Day 2 option, Borland could represent a perfect fit.
Greg Gabriel of the National Football Post gives a fairly comprehensive view of Borland’s strengths and weaknesses. For instance, Borland had a very productive collegiate career, especially in 2013, when he accumulated 112 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and four sacks as Wisconsin’s “Will” linebacker. Borland also excels at the mental part of the game, as he has terrific instincts and is an effective blitzer. Also, what he lacks in speed he makes up for in his ability to read routes well and in his pass drop, which allows him to be useful in zone coverage.
However, because he does have averaged timed speed, he will struggle in man coverage. Also, he is only 5’11” and has very short arms, which means he will miss some tackles. Gabriel calls Borland a “classic overachiever,” and although he lacks ideal size and speed, he is explosive in short areas and has good change-of-direction abilities, making him an effective run-stopper. Essentially, if you can live with a few missed tackles and can pair him with a speedy linebacker who can cover receivers downfield, Borland could make a good deal of sense. His intelligence will also be a tremendous asset in the middle of any team’s defense.
Arjuna Ramgopal of WEEI.com offers similar insights as Gabriel, noting that Borland has drawn favorable comparisons to long-time Dolphins stalwart Zach Thomas. He adds that Borland is effective at diagnosing plays and is a sure tackler. Combining Ramgopal’s analysis with Gabriel’s, it seems that as long as Borland can reach you with his short arms, you will probably go down.
As far as his pedigree, Borland is as good as it gets. He was 2013 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, 2013 Big Ten Linebacker of the Year, 2013 first-team All-American, 2013, 2012, 2011 first team All-Big Ten, and 2009 Big Ten Freshman of the Year. Because of that pedigree, his production, and his dedication, John McMullen of the Merced Sun-Star labeled Borland a “safe” pick and calls him a “can’t-miss contributor.”
His one injury concern arose in 2010, when Borland injured his left shoulder and missed all but two games. Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes that the injury has forced one team to take Borland off its draft board entirely, as that team’s physicians believe the shoulder would require additional surgery.
That concern, of course, could drop Borland’s stock on draft day. But assuming he is physically cleared to play, the team that drafts him will get a bruising, savvy playmaker who is effective against the run, effective enough in coverage, and who plays every down with the intensity required of his position.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Eagles Notes: WRs, The Draft, Ertz
The Eagles will select at least one receiver in this week’s draft, writes Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer. What is unknown is who that receiver/those receivers will be, and when Philadelphia will pull the trigger. The only two receivers who are sure to be off the board by the time the Eagles make their pick with the No. 22 overall selection (assuming they don’t trade up) are Clemson’s Sammy Watkins and Texas A&M’s Mike Evans.
Outside of those two players, Philadelphia will have its choice of a wide variety of elite talents in the first round and a number of players who might fall to Day 2 or Day 3 but who, in any other year, might be first-round worthy. The Eagles will choose between the electric play-makers like Brandin Cooks, the physical threats like Kelvin Benjamin, and the polished route runners. Although it has been said that head coach Chip Kelly prefers a larger receiver, he did not always have such a player while at Oregon, and the diminutive DeSean Jackson was, of course, the team’s primary receiving threat last year.
One concern is that first-round receivers have a lower success rate than first-round players at other positions given that college defenses have been forced to play softer coverage schemes in response to the proliferation of spread offenses in the collegiate game. As such, fewer and fewer college receivers are facing press coverage and the types of schemes they will face in the NFL. GM Howie Roseman, of course, did not divulge his team’s plans, but he did say that he will be looking for a different type of receiver than those the team targeted in Andy Reid‘s West Coast offense, and he indicated he is not necessarily looking for someone who will start right away. Rather, he is seeking the wideout who, with several years of seasoning, could emerge as the top receiver in this very deep class.
Now for a couple of other quick Eagles notes:
- ESPN.com’s Andy Jasner believes the Eagles may wait until the later rounds to draft a receiver.
- In a separate piece, Jasner says that adding a pass rusher is not a priority for the Eagles.
- Although whatever receiver the Eagles do select in the draft will be instantly compared to DeSean Jackson, Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer believes TE Zach Ertz will be the player that recoups the bulk of Jackson’s production.
- Tim McManus of Philadelphia Magazine provides a mock-draft roundup for the Eagles.
Mailbags & More: Cowboys, Lions, Rams, Jets
Let’s have a look at some mailbags and related links to kick off this Sunday morning:
- The Cowboys will have some contractual decisions to make regarding a few of their top offensive weapons, writes ESPNDallas.com’s Todd Archer in his latest mailbag. Although they have picked up the fifth-year option on Tyron Smith, thereby locking him up through 2015, they still would like to get a long-term deal done. Extension talks could take place this summer.
- As for Dez Bryant, who is entering the final year of his contract, the Cowboys want him to stay and Bryant does not want to leave, so Archer predicts that something will get done. However, he does think that a lot of the money in any potential deal will be in the base salaries, which would give Dallas some protection. And although DeMarco Murray has been terrific, the market for running backs has stagnated and the Cowboys would be wise to approach him with a modest deal now to see if he would bite.
- Finally, Archer believes that if the Cowboys are unable to land Zack Martin or another top tackle in the draft, they will try to extend Doug Free. If they do manage to snag a highly-rated tackle, they will be willing to set Free free.
- ESPN.com’s Michael Rothstein investigates the possibilities of the Lions‘ trading back from their No. 10 overall pick and the possibility of an Ndamukong Suh trade.
- Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press is going all out in his pre-draft coverage of the Lions this week, taking a look at Detroit’s options at defensive back, the most likely candidates for the team’s first round pick, and he puts up another mock draft.
- Chris McCosky of The Detroit News makes a case for the Lions to draft Zack Martin with their first-round choice.
- Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com had a two-hour chat with fans on Friday regarding the most important draft-related topics facing the Rams.
- Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains why Clemson WR Sammy Watkins would be an intriguing fit for the Rams.
- Seth Walder of the New York Daily News looks at three players the Jets could target in the first-round: Odell Beckham, Jr., Brandin Cooks, and Darqueze Dennard.
- Kimberly A. Smith of Newsday examines the importance of this draft for Jets GM John Idzik, who has 12 picks to work with and a healthy salary cap situation.
- Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com looks at Rex Ryan’s influence in the Jets‘ draft room, the possibility they may trade up in the draft, and several other draft-related issues.
First-Round QBs: What To Do?
It is widely-agreed that quarterback is the most important position in any sport. That reality has inevitably led, of course, to NFL teams’ consistent overrating of college QBs in the hopes that they might strike gold, stabilize their fortunes, and perhaps even create a dynasty. With very rare exceptions, a team does not win the Super Bowl without a top-flight quarterback, or at least a quarterback who has the ability to perform at an elite level for a stretch of time.
In recent years, such overvaluing of the quarterback position has combined with a growing impatience to create the phoenix of an instant winner from the ashes of a losing club. Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Star-Tribune wrote an excellent piece detailing this phenomenon, and he cites ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper, Jr., who examines how the approach to young QBs has changed dramatically over the course of the past few decades. As Kiper observes, “(In the 1970s), it was a five-year process. You never evaluated a rookie or second-year quarterback and said he was a bust or this or that…All the quarterbacks needed time: Troy Aikman, John Elway. These guys (now) are kicked to the curb early.”
It stands to reason, of course, that draft strategies and evaluation techniques would change over such a prolonged period of time, particularly as the league itself has evolved and has become largely predicated on the passing game. However, many pundits point to the 2008 draft as the clear turning point. Matt Ryan of the Falcons and Joe Flacco of the Ravens, both taken in the first round of the 2008 draft, were pressed into duty for teams that had finished with a losing record the year prior and helped guide their clubs to the playoff in their rookie campaigns. Flacco, of course, led the Ravens to a Super Bowl championship in 2012 on the heels of a historically-great playoff run, and while Ryan has not had the same playoff success, his statistics have consistently put him near the top of the league.
The early returns of Flacco and Ryan have perhaps forced other teams to ask the simple question “Why not us?” That question, in turn, might have created even more excessive valuation of college quarterbacks, and even more willingness to discard those quarterbacks when they do not enjoy instant success. Even as some attempt to return to the more traditional approach of patience–Texans owner Bob McNair has recently stated that his club will not repeat the mistake it made by thrusting David Carr into the starting role in 2002, and the Jaguars have apparently changed their organizational philosophy after the recent Blaine Gabbert debacle–others will overlook the red flags of quarterbacks like Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, and Blake Bortles and hang their fortunes on the right arms of those young men.
As we noted just an hour ago, the 2013 draft was an anomaly in that only one quarterback was taken in the first round. 2014 figures to see at least three quarterbacks hear their names called on the first day of the draft, if not four or five. And yet, as Robinson writes, none of those players are “sure things” like Andrew Luck in 2012 or Peyton Manning in 1998. In fact, their elite skills are diminished or even trumped by their drawbacks. If they played a different position, their drawbacks might drop them several rounds at least. As it is, there will be no shortage of teams willing to roll the dice.
If they don’t, the repercussions, both from an on-field and job-security standpoint, could be insurmountable. As Robinson points out, “all it takes is one general manager who thinks, ‘If we pass now on Manziel, and he turns out to be the next Drew Brees, we’ll never forgive ourselves.’”
Some GMs will, of course, be turned away by the red flags. Some will convince themselves (and perhaps rightly so) that a Day 2 or Day 3 QB has just as much to offer as the big names of this year’s class, and they will point to the approaches that the Bengals took to land Andy Dalton and the 49ers took to grab Colin Kaepernick. Indeed, they could take a top non-QB in the first round and still get a quality signal-caller in the later rounds.
But there will be those unwilling to pass. It could be that their talent evaluators believe a player like Manziel is simply too good to pass up, or maybe some measure of desperation and impatience will creep into the calculus. In any event, when May 8 rolls round, and when the fans of a team see a quarterback put on that team’s jersey, those fans may well be overcome with equal parts excitement and apprehension. And there will be good reason for both.
AFC Notes: Jags, Bridgewater, Claiborne
The 2013 NFL draft was a curious one in several respects, with its most notable quirk being the lack of top-tier talent at the quarterback position. For twelve years, at least four QBs were taken in the first round of the draft, but in 2013, only one was selected (E.J. Manuel). The tradition of a quarterback-heavy first round figures to return in full force this season, with a bevy of signal-callers projected to be drafted early.
However, quarterbacks that might be taken on Day 2 or Day 3 of the draft offer skill-sets that in many respects are equally as intriguing as their Day 1 counterparts, and Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union wonders if the Jaguars would be better served selecting one of the “second-tier” QBs instead of targeting one of the players expected to go in the first round. Specifically, O’Halloran names SEC products Zach Mettenberger, Aaron Murray, and A.J. McCarron as possible solutions to Jacksonville’s quarterback woes. Such a selection would allow the Jags to land a truly elite talent with their No. 3 overall pick, rather than play the lottery with high-ceiling but concerning talents like Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, and Teddy Bridgewater.
Now for more from the AFC:
- Speaking of Bridgewater, his quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator at Louisville, Sam Watson, believes the young QB is a “slam dunk” despite his oft-criticized Pro Day performance, writes Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal. As Ulrich notes, the Browns, who are expected to take a quarterback with one of their two first-round choices (Nos. 4 and 26 overall) might be inclined to agree.
- The Browns, however, are also interested in Aaron Murray, who visited with Cleveland on Wednesday and will work out for the team today, writes Jason Butt of the National Football Post.
- ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini writes that if the Jets are unable to land a CB in the first round of the draft, they may be in the market for a veteran corner, possibly via trade. Although the Cowboys’ Morris Claiborne has been discussed as a trade possibility, the cap charge Dallas would have to absorb if they dealt Claiborne ($9.6MM) would probably make such a trade untenable.
- In the same piece, Cimini writes that the Jets were interested in WR Julian Edelman before he re-signed with New England, and Rex Ryan was very intrigued with the possibility of stealing Edelman away from New York’s division rival.
- ESPN.com’s Mike Reiss believes that, with the above-mentioned run on quarterbacks that is expected to take place in the first round of this year’s draft, a top-15 or even top-10 talent could fall to the Patriots at No. 29.
- In the same piece, Reiss adds that Patriots VP of Player Personnel Nick Caserio is scheduled to meet with Illinois TE Evan Wilson early this week.
NFC Notes: Rams, Turner, Latimer
Despite the concerns surrounding South Carolina standout Jadeveon Clowney, his potential will make it next to impossible for the Texans or Rams, who hold the top two picks in the draft, to turn him down, writes Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Echoing those sentiments, ESPN.com’s Nick Wagoner is hearing that Clowney will be the No. 1 overall pick, whether Houston drafts him or another team moves up to nab him (for what it’s worth, Tom Pelissero of USA Today tweets that even if Houston wants to trade out of the first pick, the team may be unable to do so).
As a result, the Rams will still be on the lookout for defensive tackles when they are on the clock with the No. 13 overall pick. We heard a couple of days ago from our own Luke Adams that Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald will have a number of teams interested in his services between picks No. 6 and No. 16, and, in a separate piece for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Thomas writes that Donald’s pass-rush skills would be a perfect complement to starters Michael Brockers and Kendall Langford.
Wagoner, meanwhile, thinks that even if the Rams miss out on Clowney, the team might nonetheless be inclined to trade down from its No. 13 overall selection, perhaps to a club like the Browns that wants to move up to secure a QB. Although St. Louis would also be interested in trading down from its No. 2 overall pick, Wagoner believes there is little chance of that happening.
A quick look at some other NFC clubs:
- SI.com’s Don Banks thinks that the Rams will not be able to pass on Clemson WR Sammy Watkins with the No. 2 selection.
- Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune provides a nice look at the approach new Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner is taking with his roster this spring, particularly his quarterbacks.
- ESPN.com’s Andy Jasner writes that the Eagles‘ interest in Indiana WR Cody Latimer might be growing, but Sheil Kapadia of Philadelphia Magazine has a hard time believing Latimer is a real possibility for the Eagles’ No. 22 overall pick. Kapadia is probably correct, but Latimer is one of the biggest risers in this year’s draft and probably would be a first-round selection in a year where the wide receiver class was not as deep.
- Although ESPN.com’s Mike Triplett believes the Saints have quality run-stoppers on the defensive line, he does believe they need to get more athletic at linebacker over the course of the next several seasons.
- In his latest mock draft, Jim Duncan of the Times-Picayune says the Saints will trade up seven spots to No. 20 overall to select Oregon State WR Brandin Cooks.
Sunday Morning Notes: Ravens, Suh, Visits
Clifton Brown of CSNBaltimore wonders if the Ravens should be wary of Alabama defensive players in the draft, including top prospects like Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and C.J. Mosley. Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome is an Alabama alumnus and has close ties with the school, ties that may have contributed to the Ravens’ selections of players like Jarret Johnson, Terrence Cody, and Courtney Upshaw.
Although Johnson was a standout performer in Baltimore, Cody has largely been a disappointment, and after a promising rookie season, Upshaw fell off in 2013. That’s not to mention, of course, non-Raven Alabama products like Kareem Jackson and Mark Barron who have failed to live up to expectations. As ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. observed, Alabama defenders play in an elite system with top-flight coaching and consequently “come into the league thinking they pretty much are as coached as they can be and basically they’ve hit the ceiling.”
Will the trend of Crimson Tide defensive standouts who fizzle in the NFL deter Newsome from drafting players like Clinton-Dix and Mosley if he feels they represent the best fit for his club? Given Newsome’s skill and reputation, probably not. But it is another storyline to consider as the first round of the draft unfolds in a couple of weeks.
Now for some more early morning notes:
- Notre Dame offensive tackle Zack Martin has been generating a lot of buzz in recent weeks, and we recently heard that Martin is expected to be off the board within the first 17 picks. Now, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah tweets that he would not be surprised if Martin went in the top 10, with Buffalo (No. 9 overall) being a potential landing spot.
- As our own Luke Adams wrote several days ago, although the Lions might be willing to trade Ndamukong Suh, any such deal would be riddled with obstacles. As such, Suh seems likely to stay put in Detroit for at least 2014, but if he were to be traded, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk names the Jaguars and Raiders as the likeliest candidates.
- Although the Falcons have shown a great deal of interest in Jadeveon Clowney and visited with the top prospect last week, D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution believes that interest is a “smokescreen” to drive up the price for teams like Detroit that might want to move up in the draft. Ledbetter writes that Atlanta has too many holes to mortgage the future to move up for Clowney as they did for Julio Jones several years ago.
- Stanford DE Ben Gardner visited with the 49ers and Raiders this weekend, according to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
- The Bengals worked out Tusculum QB Bo Cordell, who also threw for the Eagles, tweets Tom Pelissero of USA Today.