Bills Restructure Charles Clay’s Contract
Less than 12 months after signing Charles Clay to a five-year, $38MM contract, the Bills have restructured the tight end’s deal, according to Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News (Twitter link). They’ve converted Clay’s $10MM roster bonus into a signing bonus as a way to create cap space, Adam Caplan ESPN.com reports (Twitter link). By going that route, the team has opened up $7.5MM of breathing room, Dunne tweets. The downside, as Joe Buscaglia of WKBW writes, is that Clay’s cap hit from 2017-19 
will now rise from $6.5MM to $9MM.
Prior to the restructuring of his deal, Clay was scheduled to count $13.5MM against the Bills’ cap next season. That’s an unpalatable total for a non-elite player, especially one who’s on a team with a less-than-ideal cap situation. The Bills entered Thursday with the least amount of spending space of any team in the NFL ($209,715), per Over the Cap, though the league has since awarded them upward of $4MM in carryover money from 2015.
In his first season with the Bills, knee and back injuries limited Clay to 13 games. The 27-year-old was fairly productive, though, catching 51 passes for 528 yards and three touchdowns. Most of Clay’s receptions came courtesy of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, whom the Bills could look to extend, we learned earlier this evening.
Bills Exploring Extension For Tyrod Taylor
The Bills have reached out to Tyrod Taylor‘s agent about a potential contract extension for the signal-caller, reports Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News (via Twitter). “This is a week where we’ll delve more into it,” said general manager Doug Whaley.
[RELATED: PFR previews the Bills’ offseason]
Taylor, 26, initially signed a three-year contract last winter with the Bills, but the third year of that deal was voided after he spent most of the 2015 campaign as the team’s starting quarterback. His cap number for 2016 also received a bump to $3MM+ based on a salary escalator.
Starting for the first time in his career, Taylor threw for 3,035 yards and 20 touchdowns in 14 games in 2015, completing 63.7% of his passes and tossing just six interceptions. He also provided plenty of value with his legs, rushing for 568 yards and four TDs.
While Taylor’s performance perhaps didn’t quite cement him as the Bills’ quarterback of the future, it certainly put him in the driver’s seat, so it makes sense that the team would explore the possibility of locking him up to a longer-term deal as he prepares to enter a contract year. It sounds as if talks are still in the early stages, and the Bills likely won’t be in any rush to get something done in the next couple weeks, prioritizing the club’s pending free agents instead.
However, the Bills will probably want to get a sense by the draft of whether or not an extension for Taylor will be doable, since it could affect the team’s plans — Buffalo may be more inclined to select a QB this year if there’s a possibility Taylor won’t be with the franchise beyond 2016.
Here are several more of Thursday’s updates on the Bills:
- A source close to LeSean McCoy told Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News (Twitter link) earlier today that he doesn’t expect the running back to be charged for his role in a Philadelphia nightclub altercation. However, a spokesman for the Philadelphia D.A.’s office insists no decisions have been made, adding that the investigation is still ongoing, per Joe Buscaglia of WKBW (Twitter link). Mike Rodak of ESPN.com adds (via Twitter) that no resolution is expected tonight or tomorrow.
- Asked whether the franchise tag is an option for left tackle Cordy Glenn, Bills GM Doug Whaley said all options are open, and that the team doesn’t want to back itself into a corner. Whaley also expressed confidence in the club’s chances of signing both Glenn and guard Richie Incognito, despite cap limitations (Twitter links via Tyler Dunne).
- The Bills will talk to several players’ agents at this week’s combine about potential pay cuts, according to Dunne, who tweets that the team has little choice. Could one of those pay cut candidates be defensive end Mario Williams? “We’re going to try to find a solution that’s best for the Buffalo Bills,” Whaley said today, regarding Williams (Twitter link via Dunne).
- Whaley said the Bills are excited about this year’s draft class, since it’s very deep in “areas of perceived needs for us.” The front seven is one of those areas, tweets Dunne.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mario Williams Open To Discussing Pay Cut
THURSDAY, 12:26pm: Despite Williams’ public comments about considering a pay cut, Tim Graham of The Buffalo News (Twitter link) hears that the defensive end is just waiting to be released, with a source suggesting “the sooner the better” for Williams.
WEDNESDAY, 1:22pm: Speaking today to reporters, Bills head coach Rex Ryan said he’d love to have Williams on his team in 2016, but added that it remains to be seen how realistic that is (Twitter link via Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News).
12:35pm: No Bills defensive player was more vocal about his frustrations adjusting to the team’s new defensive system in 2015 than Mario Williams, who saw his sack total dip from 14.5 in 2014 to just five in 2015. However, Williams told ESPN’s Josina Anderson that he is open to the idea of discussing a pay cut to remain in Buffalo (link via Mike Rodak of ESPN.com).
[RELATED: Pro Football Rumors previews Bills’ offseason]
“Yeah, I mean, it all depends on what is happening,” Williams said. “My thing is this: Obviously, I’ve had big contracts, but once you get on a team and you get around the guys, it becomes family. The guys on defense, we laugh and talk about anything. We do a bunch of stuff together and off the field, obviously. It’s bigger than just numbers.
“But at the same time, as far as what you said about [a pay cut] being feasible, a [salary-cap] crunch is a crunch,” Williams continued. “Obviously there’s two great players on the other side of the ball [pending free-agent left tackle Cordy Glenn and left guard Richie Incognito] that need to be back. Like you said, I’m not an accountant, either. I don’t even know how you can go about making it where it makes at least some type of sense.”
While Williams is saying the right things in regard to his contract, it seems unlikely that he and the Bills will work something out. A late-December report indicated that the team plans to cut Williams at some point this offseason, in a move that would clear $12.9MM from Buffalo’s cap. Considering the Bills are currently the most cap-strapped team in the league and need to find a way to make viable offers to Glenn and Incognito, the club could use the flexibility that releasing Williams would create.
Additionally, even though Williams is willing to explore a pay cut, he still isn’t entirely on board with the Bills’ defensive approach. He told Anderson that if he does return, he hopes the coaching staff would be willing to compromise somewhat on his role.
“Last year I feel like we were way more blitz-happy than anything,” Williams said. “I’m just saying we can meet halfway, so the guys who get after the quarterback can get more opportunities to do that, and set up your fill with the players inside you and make it happen like that. That’s all I ask. I’m not saying throw the scheme out. That’s what I was saying before. I never said anything was wrong with the scheme.”
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NFLPA Announces Cap Carryover Amounts
The NFL Players Association issued a press release today announcing the salary cap carryover amounts for all 32 NFL teams for the 2016 season. The official salary cap amount for 2016 has yet to be announced by the league, but it’s expected to be in the neighborhood of $155MM+. When that figures becomes official, it can be added to each team’s carryover amount to determine that club’s official cap for 2016.
According to the press release, the Broncos, Rams, and the Saints are the only teams that opted not to carry over the full amount available to them, though none of those clubs are believed to have left significant amounts on the table.
Here are the salary cap carryover amounts for 2016, per the NFLPA, from highest to lowest:
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $32,774,928
- Tennessee Titans: $20,783,801
- Cleveland Browns: $20,734,144
- Oakland Raiders: $13,373,617
- San Francisco 49ers: $12,206,686
- New York Giants: $11,193,231
- Miami Dolphins: $9,137,544
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $7,987,748
- Cincinnati Bengals: $7,587,902
- Philadelphia Eagles: $7,255,362
- Green Bay Packers: $6,953,847
- Washington: $5,837,734
- Indianapolis Colts: $4,950,629
- Buffalo Bills: $4,467,331
- Atlanta Falcons: $3,905,771
- Carolina Panthers: $3,731,200
- Dallas Cowboys: $3,571,239
- Denver Broncos: $3,300,000
- Arizona Cardinals: $3,031,663
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $3,000,327
- Kansas City Chiefs: $2,622,838
- New York Jets: $2,484,216
- San Diego Chargers: $2,287,176
- Minnesota Vikings: $2,090,409
- Houston Texans: $1,637,055
- Baltimore Ravens: $1,633,944
- New Orleans Saints: $1,400,000
- New England Patriots: $1,347,882
- Los Angeles Rams: $933,521
- Chicago Bears: $867,589
- Detroit Lions: $862,191
- Seattle Seahawks: $11,587
Bills Planning As If McCoy Will Miss Games
With the Philadelphia District Attorney’s investigation into LeSean McCoy ongoing, the Bills are planning for the 2016 season as if their top running back will miss the first few games, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link). While it sounds as if the Bills are bracing for a potential suspension, that indicates the team probably plans to keep McCoy on its roster rather than cutting ties with him.
McCoy, who earned a Pro Bowl nod during his first season with the Bills in 2015, is under investigation for his role in an altercation at a Philadelphia nightclub earlier this month, when he and three of his companions fought with at least two off-duty police officers. The Philadelphia D.A.’s office has yet to decide whether to issue an arrest warrant for McCoy for his role in the incident, but even if the running back doesn’t face charges, he could face a suspension from the NFL, which will conduct its own investigation.
A meeting scheduled yesterday between McCoy, his attorneys, and representatives from the Philadelphia D.A.’s office had to be rescheduled and relocated to McCoy’s attorney’s office after it was leaked to the media, as ESPN’s Mike Rodak details. It’s not clear what was discussed at the meeting, but there has been some tension between the D.A.’s office and representatives of a Philadelphia police union, whose members, including president John McNesby, believe McCoy is receiving preferential treatment.
If McCoy is ultimately suspended for his role in the nightclub incident, the Bills would likely turn to Karlos Williams as their starter to open the 2016 season. Although McCoy would be missed in that scenario, Buffalo could probably get by with Williams leading the rushing attack for a few weeks — in his rookie season, he averaged an impressive 5.6 yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Rumors: McCoy, Cruz, Culliver, Jets
Bills running back LeSean McCoy had been scheduled to meet with Philadelphia district attorney Seth Williams at his office this afternoon at 4:00pm eastern time, per multiple reports. But when word of that meeting got out, it was canceled, according to John Gonzalez of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter links), who says McCoy’s lawyers wanted to avoid a media circus and were upset that the news was leaked.
According to a report from ABC 6 Action News in Philadelphia, however, the meeting hasn’t been canceled — it has just changed venues. Action News indicates that the meeting between McCoy (or perhaps just his lawyers) and the district attorney is happening now. Williams is reportedly still weighing whether to press charges against McCoy and his companions for a nightclub altercation that took place earlier this month.
Here’s more from across the NFL’s East divisions:
- Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz, coming off a lost season, is set to make $8MM in 2016, but the club seems unlikely to bring him back at that price. Jordan Raanan of NJ.com polled several league sources and found that the general consensus was that the Giants should try to slice Cruz’s salary in half, perhaps giving him some incentives on a one-year deal in the $3-4MM range.
- The secondary will be an area of concern for Washington this offseason, according to John Keim of ESPN.com, who says that there’s no doubt cornerback Chris Culliver will return to the team for 2016. Culliver’s one-game suspension in 2015 gave Washington the opportunity to void his guaranteed money for 2016, but the club doesn’t plan to remove the guaranteed portion of his deal, says Keim.
- Antonio Cromartie was the first Jets veteran to become a cap casualty this offseason, but he’s unlikely to be the last, writes Rich Cimini of ESPN.com. Cimini identifies tight end Jeff Cumberland, wide receiver Jeremy Kerley, and kicker Nick Folk as possible release candidates.
- Paul Schwartz of the New York Post explores whether the Giants could afford to roll the dice on defensive end Noah Spence if the Eastern Kentucky pass rusher is on the board at No. 10 in the draft.
Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills
Pending free agents:
- Nigel Bradham, LB
- Ron Brooks, CB
- Corbin Bryant, DT (RFA)
- Alex Carrington, DL
- Stefan Charles, DT (RFA)
- Cordy Glenn, T
- MarQueis Gray, TE (RFA)
- Leonard Hankerson, WR
- Percy Harvin, WR
- Chris Hogan, WR (RFA)
- Richie Incognito, G
- Josh Johnson, QB
- Jordan Mills, T (RFA)
- Ty Powell, LB (RFA)
- Bacarri Rambo, S (RFA)
- Cierre Wood, RB (ERFA)
Top 15 cap hits for 2016:
- Mario Williams, DE: $19,900,000
- Marcell Dareus, DT: $14,550,000
- Charles Clay, TE: $13,500,000
- Stephon Gilmore, CB: $11,082,000
- Kyle Williams, DT: $8,000,000
- LeSean McCoy, RB: $7,675,000
- Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB: $7,575,000
- Eric Wood, C: $6,725,000
- Aaron Williams, S: $6,100,000
- Sammy Watkins, WR: $5,436,983
- Corey Graham, CB: $5,375,000
- Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
- Manny Lawson, LB: $3,400,000
- Tyrod Taylor, QB: $3,133,333
- Dan Carpenter, K: $2,837,500
Notable coaching/front office moves:
- Defensive staff: Hired former Saints DC Rob Ryan as assistant head coach/defense.
- Defensive staff: Hired former Ravens S Ed Reed as assistant defensive backs coach.
- General manager: Extended Doug Whaley through 2019 season.
Draft:
- No. 19 overall pick
- Owe seventh-round pick to Vikings in deal for QB Matt Cassel.
Other:
- Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $210K
- Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for QB EJ Manuel.
- RB LeSean McCoy accused of assaulting off-duty police officers.
- Signed WRs Jarrett Boykin, Greg Little.
Overview:
When the Bills hired Rex Ryan as their head coach last winter, he expressed a desire to construct a team capable of beating opponents into submission with a suffocating defense and a dominant running game. He also spoke optimistically about the prospect of the club breaking what was then an NFL-worst streak of 15 straight years without a playoff berth.
Twelve months later, the postseason drought is at 16 years after the Ryan-led Bills finished 8-8, a slight drop from the team’s 9-7 mark in 2014. As for Ryan’s build-a-bully approach, he got half of what he wanted. It just wasn’t the half anyone expected.
The Bills had arguably the top defense in the AFC under ex-coordinator Jim Schwartz in 2014, but Ryan dismissed Schwartz 
after his hiring because of their differing philosophies. Given Ryan’s reputation as a defensive guru, it wasn’t foolish to think the Bills’ defense would continue to thrive – perhaps even improve – with him running it. Instead, the unit took a tremendous step backward under Ryan and coordinator Dennis Thurman, going from top five in points, yards, sacks, and takeaways in 2014 to middle of the pack in most of those categories last season. The starkest decline was in sacks, in which the Bills stunningly reversed course from No. 1 in the league two years ago to second-last with Ryan and Thurman at the controls.
On the other hand, offensive coordinator Greg Roman presided over an attack that accomplished Ryan’s ground-and-pound goal en route to first-place rankings in both rushing yards and per-carry average. Two running backs, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor – all offseason pickups a year ago – were the main catalysts behind the Bills’ rushing success.
Unfortunately for the Bills, McCoy’s status for next season isn’t assured because of a pending investigation against him. Philadelphia District Attorney R. Seth Williams is considering whether to charge the four-time Pro Bowler for his alleged role in a nightclub brawl with off-duty police officers on Feb. 7. Even if Williams opts against charges and McCoy gets off scot-free from a legal standpoint, that doesn’t mean he’ll dodge a suspension from the league.
Before McCoy found himself in trouble, the biggest stories of the Bills’ young offseason centered on their front office and coaching staff. Shortly after the Bills’ season ended, general manager Doug Whaley got a contract extension through 2019 – the same year Ryan’s deal expires.
Ryan, meanwhile, hired his brother Rob Ryan in a prominent role: assistant head coach/defense. Rob Ryan was previously the defensive coordinator for the Saints, who fired him last November after he oversaw a unit that was allowing 424.7 yards per game at the time of his dismissal. Had the Saints kept up that pace, it would’ve been the second-worst all-time total for a full season. Nevertheless, Rex Ryan called his brother “a great football coach” earlier this month, and the two of them will team with Thurman as they attempt to turn around an underachieving defense next season.
Key Free Agents:
The Bills aren’t loaded with free agents who are primed to land major paydays in the coming weeks, but their top two unsigned players – left tackle Cordy Glenn and left guard Richie Incognito – were among the league’s premier offensive linemen last season. Glenn and Incognito comprised one of the best tackle-guard duos in the league, with both starting all 16 games and thriving in the process. Glenn was Pro Football Focus’ 10th-ranked tackle last season (subscription required), while Incognito placed second overall among guards.
Given that Glenn’s much younger than Incognito (26 versus 32) and plays a position of higher priority, he’ll undoubtedly be the more expensive of the pair. Since the Bills used a second-round pick on Glenn in 2012, the former Georgia Bulldog has been a durable stalwart, appearing in 61 of a possible 64 games (all starts) and earning positive grades from PFF in each of his four seasons. Now, as one of the standouts in a market of pending free agent tackles that also features the likes of Russell Okung (Seahawks), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers) and Donald Penn (Raiders), Glenn is in position to collect an appreciable raise.
Glenn wouldn’t be out of his depth to push for a deal in the neighborhood of the one the Colts’ Anthony Castonzo netted last summer. At the time, Castonzo was similar to Glenn as a four-year veteran with 60-plus starts who was entering his age-27 season. Castonzo got $43.6MM ($18MM guaranteed) over four years, and now ranks 10th among left tackles in maximum value, fourth in annual worth ($10.95MM) and 11th in guarantees. The Colts still had control over Castonzo at the time, though, whereas Glenn is potentially weeks away from having teams engage in a bidding war for his services. Thus, Glenn has a strong opportunity to surpass Castonzo’s contract.
If the Bills and Glenn aren’t able to find common ground on an accord sometime this month, the club will have the option of placing the franchise tag on him by the March 1 deadline to prevent him from hitting the open market March 9. PFR’s Luke Adams identified Glenn as a viable candidate for the tag last week. If the Bills go that route, it’ll cost them just under $14MM next season. Locking up Glenn long term after tagging him would enable the Bills to lower that number, of course.
The Bills bought low on Incognito last season, inking him to a deal that included less than $1MM in base salary, after he missed most of 2013 and all of 2014 because of his role in a bullying scandal with the Dolphins. Considering his performance last season, the Bills won’t be nearly that lucky this year. However, Incognito will stay a Bill if he has his druthers.
“My goal is to come back and play in Buffalo. I love it there,” he said in January.
There’s obviously mutual admiration between Incognito and the Bills. Whaley opined in December that Incognito deserved to be in the running for Comeback Player of the Year – an award that ended up going the Chiefs’ Eric Berry (rightly so) – and stated last month that keeping both Incognito and Glenn would be “a major point of emphasis” (Twitter link via Joe Buscgalia of WKBW). The two sides remain without an agreement, though, and Incognito certainly isn’t in the running for the franchise tag. That means the Bills can either re-up him within the next couple weeks or risk watching him head elsewhere when free agency opens.
On paper, Incognito shouldn’t be that tough to re-sign. His age and past off-field issues don’t exactly make him ripe for a lengthy contract, and a fair dollar amount would put him in the range of $3MM to $4MM per year. Only nine left guards presently average more than $4MM annually. The majority of those players are still in their 20s. Those who aren’t signed their deals before they turned 30.
Linebacker Nigel Bradham is the Bills’ only other full-time starter who is scheduled for free agency. He didn’t come close to making the impact Glenn and Incognito did last season, however, as Bradham joined many of his cohorts in going backward under Ryan and Thurman. Despite that, the Bills and Bradham want to extend their four-year relationship, according to Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News. Dunne reported Friday (via Twitter) that Bradham is willing to take a “prove-it” contract to remain in Buffalo. If the 26-year-old is truly open to that, it would make sense for the Bills to bring him back, have one fewer immediate need to address this offseason, and hope he adapts better to their defense in 2016.
Similarly, the Bills would do well to retain receiver Percy Harvin on a low-risk deal. They can’t count on him to fill a significant role, though, given his career-long injury issues. Harvin was a competent piece of the Bills’ offense early last season, catching 19 passes on 30 targets over the first five weeks, but the former Viking, Seahawk and Jet missed the remainder of the campaign with hip and knee ailments. Whaley revealed last month that the Bills hope to re-sign the 27-year-old.
The Bills have three restricted free agent agents who racked up sizable playing time last season in defensive lineman Corbin Bryant, safety Bacarri Rambo and receiver Chris Hogan. The trio combined for 22 starts (10 for Bryant, eight for Rambo, four for Hogan) and accrued well over 600 snaps apiece.
Buffalo is expected to tender a one-year offer to Bryant, per Dunne (Twitter link). All has been quiet on the Rambo and Hogan fronts thus far, meanwhile, but both are candidates to receive tenders. Rambo led Bills defenders with three forced fumbles last season. Hogan was fourth on the Bills in catches (36), aerial yards (450) and receiving touchdowns (two). He also played 39 percent of their special teams snaps.
Possible Cap Casualties:
Thanks to a combination of his subpar output last season and his exorbitant cap number ($19.9MM), defensive end Mario Williams faces long odds of ever putting on a Bills uniform again.
Williams was a nonentity under Ryan and Thurman – his sack total plummeted from 14.5 to five, and he was largely invisible otherwise – and the 31-year-old was unafraid to voice his disenchantment with their scheme throughout the season. Going forward, the 10-year veteran is scheduled to easily pace the Bills in 2016 cap hit, but they’ll recoup most of that ($12.9MM, to be exact) if they release him. Williams, who signed with the Bills for $96MM in 2012, has missed only one game over the last four seasons and piled up 43 sacks.
The Bills might also move on from defensive back Leodis McKelvin, which would save them $3.9MM. It’s worth mentioning that the longtime cornerback told Dunne in December that he’d be open to shifting to safety and coming back at a lesser cap charge than his current $4.9MM. Those actions could help McKelvin return to Western New York for a ninth season.
Buffalo would save healthy amounts by cutting defensive lineman Kyle Williams ($5MM), safety Corey Graham ($3.38MM) and kicker Dan Carpenter ($1.76MM). That’s an improbable outcome in the cases of Williams and Graham, however, as both are starters and valuable contributors.
Carpenter disappointed last season after establishing himself as a high-end kicker in previous years. The 30-year-old was 18th out of 32 qualifiers in field goal accuracy (85.2 percent) and 31st in extra point success rate (85 percent). He also doesn’t handle kickoffs, forcing the Bills to use a roster spot on specialist Jordan Gay. With all of that considered, Carpenter’s hold on a roster spot looks tenuous.
The departures of backup offensive lineman Kraig Urbik ($1.78MM) and reserve running back Anthony Dixon ($1.15MM) look like good bets. Receiver Marquise Goodwin ($710K) and safety Duke Williams ($675K) aren’t safe either. Defensive end Jarius Wynn, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, could also be on the outs. Pink slipping him would net the Bills an extra $1MM.
Positions Of Need:
Should either or both of the Cordy Glenn–Richie Incognito duo walk, the Bills will be tasked with replacing at least one of their top two offensive linemen. As mentioned earlier, Russell Okung, Kelvin Beachum, and Donald Penn join Glenn as the cream-of-the-crop unsigned left tackles.
If the Bills are unable to meet Glenn’s demands, it’s hard to envision them ponying up for Okung, who is seeking a large payday despite durability concerns. The six-year veteran has missed 25 of a possible 96 contests and has never played a 16-game regular season. Moreover, he’s currently on the mend from recent shoulder surgery.
Beachum also hasn’t been the picture of health – the 26-year-old tore his ACL last season and missed 10 games. But, as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote last week, the highly talented Steelers tackle will have no shortage of suitors on the open market.
Penn, on the other hand, has been the quintessence of dependability, having missed zero games in his nine-year career. He has also started 16 games in eight straight seasons. Both Penn’s reliability and performance (he was PFF’s No. 11 tackle last season, one spot behind Glenn) are likely to lead him to a raise over the $4.8MM per year he made on his prior deal. Penn’s age (33 in April) should prevent him from finding anything long term, though.
Given how he fared last season and the fact that he won’t require a lengthy commitment, it’ll be puzzling if the Bills part with Incognito. Pending free agents like Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Jeff Allen (Chiefs), Alex Boone (49ers) and Brandon Brooks (Texans) are all younger than Incognito and will get longer contracts as a result, but none are clearly superior players to Incognito at this juncture. Boone does have a notable connection to the Bills’ coaching staff – he played four years in Roman’s offense with the 49ers from 2011-14.
Evan Mathis (Broncos), Ramon Foster (Steelers) and Chris Chester (Falcons), like Incognito, are 30-somethings who are capable short-term Band-Aids. Interestingly, Whaley was a member of Pittsburgh’s front office when the club drafted Foster in 2009. Foster, who has since started 87 games, ranked as PFF’s 16th-best guard last season.
Unfortunately for the Bills, they also have issues on the right side of their O-line. Tackle Seantrel Henderson has started all 26 of his appearances since the Bills took him in the seventh round of the 2014 draft, but he hasn’t made enough progress to automatically keep his job for a third season. If the Bills venture into free agency for someone better, Joe Barksdale – who has made 45 starts over the last three years – jumps out as an enticing option who shouldn’t cost a bank-breaking amount. The ex-Ram took a one-year, low-money deal in San Diego last offseason and proceeded to play the second-most snaps in the league among tackles (1,150). His play earned him a No. 21 overall ranking among 77 qualifying OTs from PFF.
In the event the Bills address their O-line early in the draft, tackles Jack Conklin (Michigan State), Taylor Decker (Ohio State) and Jerald Hawkins (LSU) are possibilities at No. 19. Kansas State guard Cody Whitehair could also draw their interest.
Elsewhere on offense, the Bills aren’t sure what they have at quarterback, the sport’s paramount position. After spending the first four years of his career as a backup in Baltimore, Tyrod Taylor signed on the cheap with the Bills last winter in hopes of winning their starting job. Taylor did just that over the summer, beating out two career mediocrities in Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel, and then played better than anyone could have realistically expected during the season. As a passer, Taylor completed 63.7 percent of his throws, finished fifth in yards per attempt (7.99), seventh in rating (99.4) and added 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He complemented his solid passing skills with world-class mobility, chipping in 568 rushing yards (second to Cam Newton among QBs) and four more TDs.
While it was a successful year for Taylor, the Bills may not be sold on him as a franchise guy quite yet. They won’t find anyone better on the free agent market, but both Whaley and Ryan have left the door ajar with respect to drafting a QB this year. The Bills were one of the teams that showed the most interest throughout last season in North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz, whom they scouted extensively, NDSU quarterbacks coach Randy Hedberg told Dunne. Wentz probably won’t be available when the Bills are on the clock at No. 19, but Whaley hasn’t been shy about trading up in the past and could do it again if Wentz is still on the board within a few selections of Buffalo.
The Bills are also fans of Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.Net. Hogan is a likely mid-round pick, so it’s doubtful he’d be a threat to Taylor next season even if the Bills drafted him. It’s possible Hogan would be able to push Manuel off the roster and serve as the No. 2 behind Taylor, though Whaley and Ryan both like Manuel. Further, releasing the former first-rounder would save the Bills nothing and leave them with nearly $2.83MM in dead money in 2016.
Regardless of who’s under center for the Bills next season, the organization seems intent on giving him more to work with at receiver. With Whaley suggesting last month that Robert Woods is losing his grip on the No. 2 spot, the Bills don’t have anyone of much consequence behind Sammy Watkins. Not surprisingly, then, they’ll “seriously look into” drafting a wideout, according to Whaley (Twitter link via Buscaglia).
Player personnel director Jim Monos expressed further dissatisfaction with the team’s receiving corps, Watkins excluded, telling WGR 550, “We need to get somebody opposite of Sammy to be a real threat to that defense. I think that’s a big key for our offense, to take one more step.”
If the Bills are bold enough to draft another first-round receiver – keep in mind that, because they traded up for Watkins in 2014, they essentially used two No. 1s on him – a few names to watch include Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss and the Ohio State tandem of Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller.
In free agency, it’s unrealistic to think Buffalo will reel in a big fish like Marvin Jones, who’s reportedly seeking $7MM annually, or fellow Bengal Mohamed Sanu (he could get $5MM per year). Not many would classify Seahawks free agent-to-be Jermaine Kearse as a “real threat,” to use Monos’ phrase, though the 26-year-old could pique the Bills’ interest if the cost is reasonable. Earlier this winter, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap forecast a deal worth $3.25MM to $3.75MM per year for Kearse (Twitter link). The 6-foot-1, 209-pounder only caught two more balls than Woods last season, but he did it on 13 fewer targets, averaged 14.0 yards per reception to Woods’ 11.7 and added five TDs to Woods’ three.
The Bills entered last offseason in the catbird seat defensively, which isn’t the case 12 months later. The team’s front seven still features an enviable trio of linemen in Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams, but imposing pass rushers are lacking aside from Hughes and the linebacking corps leaves much to be desired.
Bradham and Preston Brown markedly dropped off from 2014, leaving 10-year veteran Manny Lawson as the Bills’ top linebacker last season. Lawson will once again be a relied-on member of the Bills’ defense in 2016, and the same is probably true in regards to Brown. The Bills will need aid at linebacker from outside the organization, though, and if they go shopping for it in free agency, the Jets’ Demario Davis is a clear fit.
Davis played the first three seasons of his career under Ryan, saying in 2014, “I wouldn’t want to play for any other head coach. He’s a great defensive mind.”
Ryan leaned heavily on Davis, who played 95 percent of the Jets’ defensive snaps in 2013 and 99 percent in 2014. Davis looked lost last season without Ryan, meaning he isn’t hitting the the market with the momentum of a strong contract year. That could be fortuitous timing for the Bills, who lack cap room, need linebackers, and must find players who can comprehend Ryan’s defense.
Ex-Jet Quinton Coples is another free agent linebacker whose best years came under Ryan. The 2012 first-rounder combined for 16.5 sacks in Ryan’s scheme during the first three years of his career and played 1,500-plus snaps at LB in their last two seasons together. Coples, like Davis, fell off last season in Ryan’s absence, so the Jets waived him in November. Two teams placed claims on the 25-year-old. One was the Dolphins, who ultimately got him. The other? Ryan’s Bills. The fact that the Bills lost out on Coples upset Ryan, per Mike Rodak of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
“I wanted him,” Ryan said.
Coples was a non-factor in Miami, which released him earlier this month. He’s now free to sign anywhere, and the Bills are ostensibly a more logical fit for him than any other team. As an edge-rushing linebacker with a knowledge of Ryan’s defense, Coples is an alluring buy-low possibility for cap-strapped Buffalo.
The Bills could also buy high at LB in the form of a first-round pick. In his latest mock draft, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has the club selecting Ohio State’s Darron Lee in the opening round. Depending on whether they’re still available, any of Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith, Alabama’s Reggie Ragland and Georgia’s Leonard Floyd might be on the Bills’ radar. They could also address their D-line instead and choose from the likes of Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss), Sheldon Rankins (Louisville), A’Shawn Robinson (Alabama) and Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State), among others.
Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:
The Bills have decisions to make this offseason on both of their quarterbacks. One of those decisions, whether to exercise or decline EJ Manuel‘s fifth-year option for 2017, will be easy. They’ll decline it, which means Manuel could be entering his final year with the team that drafted him. Manuel, whom the Bills took 16th overall in 2013, has appeared in 22 games, logged 16 starts and tossed 19 TDs against 15 INTs. He has been relegated to the bench since early 2014 as the backup, first to Kyle Orton and now to Taylor.
Whether to take a shot at extending Tyrod Taylor or simply let him play out his contract year is a much more difficult call for the Bills’ front office. Taylor’s pedigree hardly screams “franchise QB” — he’s undersized (6-1, 205 pounds), didn’t have a lights-out college career as a passer, went in the sixth round, and has spent the vast majority of his pro tenure as a backup.
That doesn’t mean Taylor is incapable of serving as an adept starter for the long haul, but the Bills can’t afford to make another mistake under center by once again investing heavily in someone who isn’t the answer. They got into trouble a few years ago when they prematurely extended Ryan Fitzpatrick based on a small sample size of encouraging play, and that was wedged between two failed first-round picks (J.P. Losman and Manuel). With that in mind, they’re unlikely to place their hand on the hot stove again, so to speak.
Although it’ll cost the Bills more if they take a better-safe-than-sorry approach and Taylor builds on last season, that would be a good problem for a franchise that has been hopeless at QB since the mid-1990s.
While the Bills aren’t yet sure of what they have in Taylor, they should know by now that cornerback Stephon Gilmore is worth a mega-extension. The 2012 first-rounder is going into his final season under team control and is coming off a year in which he tied a career high with three interceptions, ranked as a top-10 corner by PFF’s standards, and formed a top-notch CB twosome with rookie Ronald Darby.
Gilmore is scheduled to rake in over $11MM in 2016, his fifth-year option season. If he were to ask for that long term, it would be a lofty request from a player who has missed 11 games over the last three years. Then again, the Eagles’ Byron Maxwell has one of the richest contracts in the league for a corner – fourth in total value ($63MM), fifth in yearly worth ($10.5MM) and third in guarantees ($25MM) – and he got it last winter despite appearing in just 47 games in four seasons. At the time, Maxwell was a 27-year-old who had played second fiddle to Richard Sherman in Seattle. Conversely, Gilmore – who will turn 26 in September – has been the alpha dog in pass defenses that have mostly stifled enemy QBs (three straight top-10 finishes in both yards per attempt against and passer rating allowed). Add all of that up, and Gilmore has a case for Maxwell money – especially with the cap having risen $12MM during the last year.
Overall Outlook:
The Bills have little cap room to work with and obvious problems to address on both sides of the ball, so Whaley will have to pull a magic trick of sorts in order to build a playoff-caliber roster this offseason. Best-case scenario for Buffalo: Whaley will somehow re-sign both Glenn and Incognito, hit home runs with value pickups in free agency, and add multiple draft prospects who pay immediate dividends.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extra Points: Slay, Lions, Bills, Griffin, Oher
Lions cornerback Darius Slay has made it clear that he’d like to sign an extension with Detroit, and it looks like some movement may be coming on that front. According to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link), Slay’s new agent Drew Rosenhaus will meet with the Lions at the scouting combine to discuss a new contract. As Cole notes, it probably makes sense for Detroit to strike a deal now — and add some guaranteed money in 2016 while they’re flush with cap space — instead of waiting until next offseason and running the risk of having to franchise Slay.
Here’s a few more notes from around the NFL:
- Restricted free agent Corbin Bryant believes he can be part of the solution in Buffalo, and the Bills defensive lineman wants to be retained, as Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News writes. Because of cap trouble, Dunne expects the Bills to tender Bryant, a restricted free agent, at the lowest level, but he notes (via Twitter) that the two sides haven’t had any talks as of yet.
- While Bryant is set to hit restricted free agency, Bills linebacker Nigel Bradham is an unrestricted free agent, and he’s willing to accept a one-year, “prove-it” deal to return to Buffalo, reports Dunne (Twitter link). Bradham was a much better fit under former Buffalo DC Jim Schwartz than he is in Rex Ryan‘s system, but general manger Doug Whaley wants Bradham to return, per Dunne.
- Free agent safety Michael Griffin has hired David Mulugheta and Andrew Kessler as his new agents, as Rand Getlin of NFL Network reports (Twitter link). The 31-year-old Griffin was released last week after nine seasons with the Titans.
- Like Slay did earlier this year, Panthers tackle Michael Oher has hired Rosenhaus as his representative, tweets Getlin. Oher, coming off a surprisingly successful first season in Carolina, has a $4.5MM 2016 cap charge in the second year of a two-year deal, and could be a candidate for an extension.
Draft Notes: Cardinals, Bills, Cowboys, Jets
Clemson’s Shaq Lawson has been labeled as a likely top-15 pick in April’s draft, but it’s his teammate — edge rusher Kevin Dodd — who’s been drawing more praise from some NFL clubs, reports Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net. Several teams now have Dodd, who will perform defensive lineman drills at the combine but is also capable of playing outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, ranked ahead of Lawson. One club that could target Lawson on in Round 1 is the Cardinals, per Pauline, as Arizona is expected to prioritize both defensive ends and safeties during the early portion of the draft.
Let’s take a look at a few more draft notes, all courtesy of Pauline…
- If the Bills don’t select a quarterback early in the draft, they could grab Stanford signal-caller Kevin Hogan late, per Pauline. Buffalo met with Hogan at the Senior Bowl, and the club was apparently with both his athleticism and arm strength, as well as his “next level potential.”
- Michigan tight end A.J. Williams might not be selected in the draft, but he could end up being a priority free agent, as Pauline reports that both the Jets and Cowboys have to begun to show interest in the 6’5″, 270-pounder. It’s expected that Williams could act as a team’s third tight end in 2016, and be especially useful in the red zone.
- NFL teams are also impressed by the athleticism of another tight end, South Carolina’s Jerell Adams, and Pauline believes he could end up being the fourth tight end selected in the draft. Adams, a former basketball player, reportedly showed excellent blocking skills at the Senior Bowl.
- Boise State defensive end Kamalei Correa projects as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the pros, but some teams also believe could play inside, thanks not only to his versatility and presumably his movement skills, but also to his intangibles, which Pauline says NFL teams are increasingly valuing in middle linebackers.
East Rumors: McCoy, R. Matthews, Bradford
The Philadelphia District Attorney’s office released a statement today that essentially says there’s no update on the LeSean McCoy investigation (Twitter link via Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News).
“I understand that people are interested in the outcome of our investigation, but we’re not going to rush because some people are impatient,” said Philadelphia DA R. Seth Williams in the statement, adding that his “only goal is to get it right, not fast.”
Williams said he has not yet decided whether to press charges against the Bills running back or anyone else involved in the nightclub altercation that took place earlier this month, so it looks like we’ll have to wait until at least next week for any sort of decision.
Here’s more from around the NFL’s two East divisions:
- Wide receiver Rishard Matthews has been considered likely to leave the Dolphins this offseason, but the club has reached out to Mathews about discussing a new deal, according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. That doesn’t necessarily means that the Fins will re-sign Mathews, but there’s some level of interest in bringing him back.
- The Eagles continue to say they want to re-sign quarterback Sam Bradford, with de-facto GM Howie Roseman the latest to weigh in on the topic, as Tim McManus of PhillyMag.com details. Still, Roseman cautioned that any deal has “got to work for the other side and the player” in addition to working for the team. At this point, I’d be surprised if the two sides got something done prior to free agency, unless the Eagles are willing to use the franchise tag, since there’s no incentive for Bradford to accept a below-market offer.
- While it’s premature to say Jets linebacker Demario Davis is a goner, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com expects the team to let Davis test the open market, where he’s likely to get a better deal than the Jets will be willing to offer.
- According to Tom Pelissero of USA Today (via Twitter), Giants long snapper Zak DeOssie will make $1.1MM on his new one-year contract with the team, which features $275K in guaranteed money.