Extension Candidate: Andy Dalton
When the Bengals passed on Teddy Bridgewater with the No. 24 pick in last month’s draft, and subsequently waited until the fifth round before drafting a signal-caller (Alabama’s A.J. McCarron), they seemed to send a strong message: Andy Dalton is Cincinnati’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.
Dalton, selected in the second round of the 2011 draft, has achieved immediate success in the Queen City, leading the Bengals to a 30-18 record and three playoff appearances (0-3 record) during his first three seasons in the league, averaging nearly 3,800 yards passing, 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in that span. Advanced metrics rate Dalton as average — Football Outsiders ranked Dalton as the 17th-best QB by DYAR in 2014, while Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as 16th-best. The PFF rating, however, illustrates Dalton’s maddening inconsistency — in 2014, he finished three weeks with a +5.0 or better grade, while five other weeks saw him earn a -3.0 or worse mark.
The Bengals, for their part, have a recent history of being willing to pay for performance, as evidenced by extensions for Andrew Whitworth, Carlos Dunlap, and Leon Hall. In March, team owner Mike Brown spoke about Dalton’s situation, saying “If it turns out it can’t be made to work we will do something elsewhere. I don’t think we plan to go another year the way we did this year.” Whether that means Cincinnati would be willing to slap the franchise tag on Dalton in 2015 is unclear, but Brown is well aware that the free agent market for quarterbacks is more often than not barren, meaning Dalton is the likely the team’s best, and perhaps only, answer at the position.
Cincinnati also has other premier players whom they would like to like to retain — receiver A.J. Green, whose 2015 option was exercised, and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, with whom the Bengals are discussing an extension. While the team currently has over $24MM in cap space, new contracts for Green, Burfict, and Dalton could stretch the Bengals’ budget.
In looking for a precedent, the Bengals could look at recent extensions given to fellow quarterbacks Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Romo signed a seven-year, $108MM deal with the Cowboys in March 2013, which contained $55MM guaranteed. While Romo has outperformed Dalton since the latter entered the league in 2011, he is eight years older than the Bengals QB. Cutler agreed to a seven-year, $126.7MM contract in January 2014, with $54MM in guarantees. Cutler and Dalton have comparable statistics, though Dalton has been healthier and is five years younger.
More potential quarterback extensions are seemingly on the horizon, each of which could affect Dalton’s value. Alex Smith is reportedly asking for $18MM per season, Colin Kaepernick could aim for a $20MM AAV, and a Cam Newton contract could surpass each of those potential deals.
With the Bengals taking a pass on adding legitimate competition for Dalton, an extension seems to be the likeliest of outcomes. While the Bengals probably aren’t willing to give Dalton a $20MM AAV, I could see them examining Dalton’s regular-season success, the randomness of playoff losses, and the lack of enticing alternatives, and handing Dalton a contract in line with what Cutler received: $18-19MM per season, with $50-60MM in guarantees. Such a deal, as opposed to a 2015 franchise tag, would probably give the Bengals the room to negotiate contracts for Green and Burfict, keeping intact a core that could keep Cincinnati competitive for years to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AFC North Notes: Steelers, Miller, Hoyer
The Steelers are returning all of their offensive lineman, including Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey who was lost last season to a torn ACL. No one is more excited than Ben Roethlisberger, who believes that continuity on the offensive line could be the key to success, particularly in the no huddle offense, writes Kim Myers of NicePickCowher.com. “That’s a big part of being able to run the no-huddle because those guys are up there and they’re comfortable, they’re familiar. They’ve got another offseason in training of continuity and learning from each other,” said Roethlisberger. “I tell them before each game that they are what is going to drive this team and this offense. As long as they stay healthy and can play every game we’ll be good.” Here are some other notes from around the AFC North:
- Steelers‘ tight end Heath Miller bounced back well from a torn ACL in 2013, catching 58 passes for 593 yards and a touchdown, writes Matt Shetler of CityOfChampionsSports.com. However, he had posted career highs in yards and touchdowns the previous season, and is looking to re-establish himself as one of the league’s top tight ends. “Last year was about trying to find a new normal for myself and I’m a creature of habit, so that wasn’t easy for me,” said Miller. “I’m fully confident by the time the season rolls around I’m going to be feeling much better than the start of last year just from a confidence perspective.”
- The Bengals have a deep bench at the running back position, and it is unclear how many the team will keep on the 53-man roster, writes Coley Harvey of ESPN.com. Harvey says that both BenJarvus Green-Ellis and undrafted free agent Jeff Scott are on the bubble, with Giovani Bernard and second-round pick Jeremy Hill looking to take a bulk of the carries. However, Green-Ellis’ veteran presence and Scott’s versatility could keep them on the roster this season.
- The Browns still plan to let first-round pick Johnny Manziel start as a backup, and if veteran Brian Hoyer plays well the team could extend him, writes Pat McManamon of ESPN.com. With Manziel on his rookie contract for four years (with a fifth-year option), the team could afford to keep both players.
Minor Moves: Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bucs
Here are the latest minor transactions from around the NFL, including several signings and cuts of players who haven’t seen much recent NFL regular-season action:
- The Browns have waived defensive back Julian Posey, the team announced today (via Twitter). Posey saw just 89 defensive snaps for Cleveland last season, with most of them coming in a Week 17 game against the Steelers, which he started.
- The Ravens have signed undrafted free agent linebacker D.J. Roberts, who attended their rookie minicamp on a tryout basis, tweets Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun. According to Wilson, the club cut quarterback Nick Stephens to clear a spot for Roberts, leaving three signal-callers on the roster — Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, and Keith Wenning.
- Defensive tackle Ogemdi Nwagbuo has been released by the Bengals with a non-football illness designation, the team announced today (Twitter link). The 28-year-old has also spent time with the Chargers, Panthers, and Lions.
- The Buccaneers have signed cornerback Quinton Pointer and cut another corner, Marc Anthony, the club announced today in a press release. Pointer last played for the Rams but didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the team in March, making him an unrestricted free agent. Anthony, meanwhile, spent last season on Tampa Bay’s practice squad.
- The Lions have cut defensive end Kourtnei Brown, according to Wilson (via Twitter). Brown was cut once by the Bills earlier in the offseason, at which point Detroit claimed him off waivers. If he clears waivers this time, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent.
- Veteran defensive tackle Kentwan Balmer, who hasn’t appeared in a regular season game since 2011, was released and removed from the reserve/left team list by the Redskins, tweets Adam Caplan of ESPN.com.
Cowboys Notes: QBs, Malena, Crawford
With Kyle Orton seemingly leaning toward retirement, the Cowboys’ depth chart at quarterback could be awfully thin this season behind Tony Romo. Brandon Weeden would likely to slide into the No. 2 role, with Caleb Hanie in the mix as well. The Cowboys could have provided themselves with another insurance policy for a Romo injury and/or Orton retirement if they’d elected to select a quarterback a signal-caller in the draft, but as Todd Archer of ESPN.com notes, the team’s draft philosophy precluded that possibility at this point. Whereas a team like the Patriots has drafted quarterbacks as potential long-term replacements for Tom Brady, Dallas has been less inclined in recent years to draft a QB only to develop that player for another team.
Here’s more on the Cowboys:
- Texas A&M running back Ben Malena received offers from more than 10 NFL teams after going undrafted, including the Texans, Bengals, Redskins, Broncos, and Raiders, but ultimately chose to sign with the Cowboys, as he explains to Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. “I looked over their current situation,” Malena said. “They had high interest in me. I feel like I can really make this team. I feel like I can really be a contributing factor to help this team win championships.”
- In a photo gallery for the Dallas Morning News, Machota examines 10 questions the Cowboys need to answer as OTAs get underway.
- Rainer Sabin of the Dallas Morning News takes a look at why many observers – and teammates – believe defensive end Tyrone Crawford could be the Cowboys’ breakout player in 2014.
- In a piece for Sports on Earth, Mike Tanier explains his “Hope Index,” which evaluates the optimism a team’s fanbase should feel based on its recent success and how sustainable that success looks going forward. The Cowboys didn’t make out so well in Tanier’s calculations, ranking 26th, just one spot ahead of the Jaguars.
AFC North Notes: Clarke, Bengals, Steelers
There should be a number of interesting divisional races in the NFL this season, but according to sports betting site Bovada.lv, none are currently as up in the air as the AFC North. It’s the only division in the league without a single favorites, as both the Bengals and Steelers are given equal 2/1 odds at coming out on top, while the Ravens are right behind. Even the Browns, at 5/1, aren’t viewed as as much of a long shot as most other “fourth-place” clubs around the league.
As we look forward to seeing how the AFC North plays out in 2014, let’s check in on a few of the latest updates out of the division…
- In addition to confirming the signing of second-round running back Jeremy Hill, news which Hill himself broke yesterday, the Bengals also announced that they’ve signed third-round defensive end Will Clarke (Twitter link). Per Jason Fitzgerald’s figures at OverTheCap.com, the West Virginia defender will be in line for a signing bonus worth about $545K with a four-year base value near $2.8MM.
- While a number of teams handed out modest signing bonuses to most or all of their undrafted free agent signings, the Bengals weren’t one of those clubs. According to Coley Harvey of ESPN.com, only four of Cincinnati’s 11 UDFA additions receiving signing bonuses, worth just $26K in total. We’ve added the new figures, including an $8K bonus for wideout Colin Lockett, to our own story on the Bengals’ post-draft signings.
- As Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes in his preview of the Steelers‘ OTAs, one of the questions facing Pittsburgh is whether any additional roster moves are on the way when the team frees up $8.5MM in cap space next week due to the release of LaMarr Woodley. Robinson also examines the receiving corps and the roles that rookies like Dri Archer and Ryan Shazier will play, among other topics.
Bengals Sign Second-Rounder Jeremy Hill
Former LSU running back Jeremy Hill announced via Twitter that he has officially signed with the Bengals.
The second-round pick will join Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the Cincinnati backfield. Hill had over 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns last year for LSU.
Hill’s signing leaves only two members of the Bengals’ rookie class left to be signed, in first-round pick Darqueze Dennard and third-rounder Will Clarke.
Extra Points: Dalton, Housler, Dolphins
Following his subpar performances in the last three playoffs, there was some doubt whether Andy Dalton was part of the Bengals future. Furthermore, the quarterback may be seeking an extension with the squad. New offensive coordinator Hue Jackman stated his support for the 26-year-old following the team’s first voluntary on-field practice.
Via Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com:
“He has all the characteristics I like in a quarterback. He’s smart, he comes to work prepared and ready to go, and he comes to the practice field ready to compete. He can make all the necessary throws. I haven’t see any throw he can’t make. That being said, he knows there are things that we talk about that he needs to get better at.”
Of course, Jackman added that it’s time for Dalton and star receiver A.J. Green to prove their talents:
“They’ve been good, now it’s time to be great.”
Let’s take a look at some more notes from around the NFL…
- Cardinals tight end Rob Housler is a “definite (if not likely) trade candidate”, according to ESPN’s. Josh Weinfuss (via Twitter).
- Dolphins quarterback Brock Jensen made a couple of good throws in minicamp, but his arm strength was not impressive, opines ESPN’s James Walker (via Twitter). The writer says that he isn’t ready to declare the undrafted free agent as a challenger to Pat Devlin for the third quarterback spot (via Twitter).
- Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette lists defensive end, inside linebacker and wide receiver as the biggest position battles for the Steelers.
AFC Mailbags: Raiders, Patriots, Bengals
We took a look at ESPN’s NFC mailbags earlier tonight. Let’s dive into the AFC mailbags to end this Saturday night…
- If Raiders rookie Khalil Mack ultimately starts, veteran Kevin Burnett could be expendable, writes Paul Gutierrez.
- Gutierrez projects that Raiders‘ seventh-round pick Travis Carrie and undrafted rookie George Atkinson III will stick around on special teams.
- It wouldn’t shock Gutierrez if the Raiders add a veteran tight end to compete with Mychal Rivera and David Ausberry.
- When asked if the Patriots would go after Lions tight end Joseph Fauria, Mike Reiss writes that a trade isn’t likely. Reiss says the Lions wouldn’t trade the red zone target for “anything less than a high-round pick.” Fauria is the nephew of former Patriots tight end, Christian Fauria.
- After the Bengals added Jeremy Hill to Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, it’s easy to forget about former sixth-round picks Rex Burkhead and Cedric Peerman. Coley Harvey thinks there is room for all five running backs, adding that Burkhead was “redshirted last season for a reason.”
AFC North Notes: Bengals, Steelers, Ravens
As we noted earlier today, significantly more than half of 2014’s draft picks have already signed or at least agreed to terms on contracts with their NFL teams. However, that ratio doesn’t particularly apply to the AFC North — of the division’s 32 draftees, only 13 had reached agreements coming into today, and seven of those were Baltimore picks. In this afternoon’s divisional roundup, we have word of one draftee to add to that list of signed players, along with a couple other notes. Let’s dive in….
- The Bengals have signed fourth-round center Russell Bodine, the team announced today (via Twitter). Cincinnati has been busy this week, having locked up five of the club’s eight draftees within the last three days. Bodine, the 111th overall pick, is in line for a $456K+ signing bonus, per Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap.
- Two of the most noteworthy players still available on the free agent market, Santonio Holmes and James Harrison, have interest in returning to the Steelers, Ike Taylor said earlier this week on his TribLive radio show (link via Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). Speaking about Harrison specifically, Taylor said, “He still wants to play football, and of course his first option would be Pittsburgh. … He’s probably in the best shape of his life. Right now he looks like the Hulk. He’s been banged up, and he feels he has something to prove.”
- After going undrafted earlier this month, Middle Tennessee State cornerback Sammy Seamster fielded calls from about 20 teams interesting in signing him as a free agent, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun. As Wilson writes, Seamster narrowed his options to the Ravens, Dolphins, and Jaguars, and is happy that he ultimately opted to sign with Baltimore.
Draft Signings: Falcons, Dolphins, Bengals
We’ve been tracking all of this year’s draft pick signings by team right here, and we have a few new deals to add to that list. Here are the latest draftees to officially ink their deals, or at least agree to terms, with their new NFL clubs:
- The Falcons have agreed to terms with fourth-round running back Devonta Freeman, the team announced today (via Twitter). Third-round safety Dezmen Southward is the only Atlanta draftee that has yet to reach a deal with the club.
- Fifth-round tight end Arthur Lynch has signed his rookie contract with the Dolphins, according to the team’s official Twitter account. Having been picked 16 spots ahead of fellow Miami fifth-rounder Jordan Tripp, whose signing is noted below, Lynch will receive a signing bonus worth $28K+ more (about $191K).
Earlier updates:
- The Bengals have now locked up half of their eight draft picks, announcing today (via Twitter) that they’ve signed fifth-round quarterback A.J. McCarron and seventh-round defensive back Lavelle Westbrooks. According to Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap, McCarron’s signing bonus will be nearly $182K, while Westbrooks will receive a more modest bonus worth about $46K.
- Third-round center Travis Swanson announced today that he has officially signed his rookie contract with the Lions, posting a photo on Instagram that shows him putting pen to paper. First-rounder Eric Ebron and second-rounder Kyle Van Noy are the only Detroit draftees who remain unsigned.
- The Dolphins have agreed to terms with their first of eight draft picks, according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, who hears from a source that fifth-round linebacker Jordan Tripp has reached a deal with the club. The 171st overall pick should be in line for a signing bonus worth about $163K on his four-year contract, per Fitzgerald.