POLL: Should the Cardinals Explore A David Johnson Trade?
As the Cardinals have started the season 1-4 and are in the midst of a rebuild, there’s been a lot of trade rumors surrounding the team. Arizona is reportedly shopping former first-rounders Deone Bucannon and Haason Reddick, and now a more surprising name has emerged as a potential trade candidate. 
Over the course of the week, David Johnson‘s name has been a frequent subject of internet discussion, with many speculating the team could look to deal him as they aren’t in win-now mode. The Eagles, who have also been linked to Le’Veon Bell after Jay Ajayi‘s ACL tear, have been suggested as a possible destination for Johnson.
Johnson has been having a down-year by his standards, and Cardinals offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has taken a lot of flack for not getting Johnson involved more. Johnson thrived in now-retired coach Bruce Arians’ system, where he was often utilized as a receiver. McCoy’s scheme has turned him into more of a between-the-tackles runner, and it hasn’t been a great fit.
Despite the scheme issues, it would still be shocking if Johnson was dealt. Just last month, the team signed him to a huge three-year extension worth $39MM. As former NFL agent and current CBS Sports analyst Joel Corry points out, it wouldn’t make much sense for the team to pay Johnson a massive $12MM signing bonus then deal him months later (Twitter link).
It also wouldn’t seem to make much sense for the Cardinals to trade away the offense’s best weapon as they seek to develop Josh Rosen. Trading away Johnson would take away Rosen’s safety blanket and make life much tougher for the promising rookie.
But as long as the Cardinals continue to lose and until McCoy succeeds in getting Johnson more involved, rumors will likely continue to swirl. It’s likely the Cardinals would seek high draft picks if they did decide to flip him, and it’s unclear if any team would even be willing to play the necessary price.
What do you think? With the team not winning anything this year, should the Cardinals at least listen to offers on Johnson? Vote in the poll below and weigh in down in the comments!
Poll: Who Will Pick First Overall In The 2019 NFL Draft?
With nearly a third of the 2018 regular season in the books, it’s fair to start looking ahead to the 2019 draft, especially if you’re a fan of a team that’s not looking like a playoff team this year. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA On the Clock report, let’s take a look at a few teams who could secure the No. 1 overall selection in 2019:
Arizona Cardinals (19.6% chance of No. 1 pick, 61.5% chance of top-five pick)
The Cardinals allowed the Sam Bradford experiment to last for the better part of three games before turning things over to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen, who has appeared competent thus far. David Johnson is an All-Pro talent at running back, but Arizona hasn’t been very creative in its use of him, and he’s faced eight or more defenders in the box on 33.78% of his attempts, 10th-most in the league. The Cardinals are still as a top-10 defense in terms of DVOA (meaning they’re efficient) despite ranking as a bottom-10 unit in both yards allowed and scoring, so continued success on that side of the ball could move Arizona away from the top overall pick.
San Francisco 49ers (18.6%, 59.8%)
The 49ers’ top quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo), running back (Jerick McKinnon) and wide receiver (Marquise Goodwin) have all been injured this year, and each health issue helped push the 49ers’ chances of earning the No. 1 pick upward. With C.J. Beathard now leading San Francisco’s offense, and Alfred Morris taking over in the backfield for the time being while Matt Breida deals with an ankle injury, it’s unclear how many points the 49ers will be able to muster the rest of the way. Pair those offensive problems with a defense that ranks just 26th in adjusted sack rate, and San Francisco could be in the market for a top-five selection in 2019.
Buffalo Bills (13.2%, 56%)
While rookie signal-caller Josh Allen perhaps hasn’t looked as poor as many believed he would, he still ranks second-to-last among quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt. His performance, as well as that of Buffalo’s porous offensive line, has contributed to the Bills ranking dead last in both yards per drive and points per drive. A surprisingly strong defense (and a full-effort approach that speaks well of head coach Sean McDermott) could help push the Bills towards the end of the top-10 picks, but their offense is going to hold them back.
Oakland Raiders (9.3%, 41.7%)
It’s a good thing Jon Gruden landed a 10-year contract because his first season with the Raiders isn’t going as planned. Oakland’s defense is the slowest in the NFL (which perhaps isn’t a surprise given that the Raiders are fielding the league’s oldest roster), and the club’s offense has been hit-or-miss. After trading superstar Khalil Mack, Oakland ranks dead last in sacks and second-to-last in adjusted sack rate. And, as a bonus, the Raiders get to face Patrick Mahomes twice a year for the next decade.
New York Giants (8.1%, 37.1%)
The Giants are the only team in the NFL that has at least a 5% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick and at least a 10% chance of making the postseason, per Football Outsiders. That’s largely due to the lackluster quality of the NFC East, where no team is over the .500 mark, and New York’s remaining schedule, which ranks as the easiest in the league. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight currently projects the Giants to finish with the NFL’s worst record, so until the NFC East clarifies itself, New York’s outlook is ¯_(ツ)_/¯.
Atlanta Falcons (8%, 35.3%)
The one team on this list that would have been a complete surprise coming into 2018, the Falcons have been decimated on the defensive side of the ball. Starting safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, plus linebacker Deion Jones, are all out for the season after suffering injuries, and Atlanta’s defense has responded in kind, giving up the second-most points in the league on a per-game basis. Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons’ offense can still win shootouts, but Atlanta could be in line to pick within the top-five for the first time since 2008.
So, what do you think? Will one of these teams land the No. 1 overall pick in 2019? Vote below!
PFR Originals: 9/30/18 – 10/7/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- In the latest entry in our This Date in Transactions History series, Zach Links examined the 2010 trade that sent running back Marshawn Lynch from the Bills to the Seahawks for the price of a 2011 fourth-round pick and a conditional 2012 selection. Lynch, of course, went on to post four consecutive campaigns with at least 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit touchdowns, winning a Super Bowl in the process.
- A number of key players have already been lost for the season due to injury, leading Zach to explain the concept of injured reserve. IR rules have changed in recent years, as teams are now allowed to bring a maximum of two players off injured reserve following an eight-week absence. Our PFR Glossary post on IR also describes how teams and players reach injury settlements that allow the player to reach free agency.
- As a reminder, you can follow Pro Football Rumors on social media and specifically filter for news on your favorite team. Here are links to our Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds for all 32 teams.
This Date In NFL Transactions History: Bills Trade Marshawn Lynch To Seahawks
On this date in 2010, the Bills and Seahawks pulled off a blockbuster midseason trade. For the price of a 2011 fourth-round pick and a conditional 2012 draft pick, the Bills said farewell to Marshawn Lynch.
Lynch’s tenure in Buffalo altered between jaw-dropping and headache-inducing for the front office. The running back topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two NFL seasons and earned his first career Pro Bowl nod in 2008. Meanwhile, his off-the-field trouble was cause for concern. In the summer of 2008, Lynch admitted to striking a female pedestrian with his car and leaving the scene. In the following spring, Los Angeles cops found a semiautomatic handgun in his car.
The former first-round pick seemed to be back on track early in the 2010 season, having just wrestled the starting job back from Fred Jackson. Still, the phone lines were open in Buffalo, and Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll pounced on the opportunity to add him to the backfield.
“We’re going to bring him in to play a lot,” Carroll said (via the Associated Press). “We’ll wait and see when we get him here, but we’re bringing him in here to play a bunch.” The decision to trade for Lynch ended up working out incredibly well for the Seahawks, as Lynch took his game to a new level in Seattle and became the engine of the offense for their Super Bowl winning team. He went to four Pro Bowls with the Seahawks and was twice named an All-Pro
Lynch ended up announcing his retirement after the 2015 season, but after a year away from the game decided to return. The Seahawks promptly traded him to the Raiders, where Lynch currently plays.
PFR Glossary: Injured Reserve
Already this season, we’ve seen several key players moved to teams’ injured reserve lists. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, Packers defensive tackle Muhammad Wilkerson, and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead are among the players who landed on the IR recently, opening up a spot on their clubs’ active rosters for their teams to replace them. 
The injured reserve designation is generally used for players who will be out for the season. That’s not the case for every player who lands on injured reserve though. Particularly during the preseason, we see players who weren’t part of their teams’ long-term plans hit the IR list, only to be cut several days later. Generally, these cases involve players who aren’t suffering from season-ending injuries, and receive injury settlements from their respective clubs in order to release those clubs from any liability.
For instance, let’s say a player is injured during the final week of the preseason with a high ankle sprain, and the player and team both agree that the injury will sideline him for three weeks. The club could place that player on injured reserve, then cut him with a two-week regular-season injury settlement (since the final preseason week is also taken into account). That would allow the player to receive 2/17ths of his season salary, and allow him to look for work with a new club when he gets healthy. If the club were to keep the player on injured reserve rather than removing him with a settlement, it would be required to cut him when he gets healthy.
Teams who release a player from IR with a settlement are eligible to re-sign that player later in the season, if they so choose. But they must wait three weeks, on top of the time of the initial settlement. In that previous example then, a club would have to wait until after Week 8 to re-sign the player with the high ankle sprain.
Players who remain on their clubs’ injured reserve lists all season continue to receive their full salary, which also counts against their teams’ salary caps. The 49ers, for example, have tons of traditional dead money on the books thanks to the contracts of NaVorro Bowman, Vance McDonald, and Jonathan Cooper. But, they’re also effectively carrying dead money for Garoppolo, who carries a $37MM cap number in the first year of his lucrative extension.
In some instances, players agree to “split contracts” when they sign with a club, which means that the player will receive a smaller salary if he lands on injured reserve. Split contracts, which are worth less than the active roster minimum salaries, are fairly rare, and are primarily signed by undrafted rookies or veterans with injury histories.
One additional quirk related to the injured reserve list is the option each team has to bring two players back from the IR list. The rule has changed quite a bit over the last few years. Previously, the rule stipulated that a team had to designate one specific player for return later on in the season. The IR-DTR spot was later nixed to allow teams to bring one player back from IR without any previous designation, but starting in 2017, teams were permitted to return two players from IR. The only hitch is that a player must be on IR for a minimum of six weeks before practicing and can return to game action after a total of eight weeks.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier post by PFR editor emeritus Luke Adams. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PFR Social Media Feeds By Team
We’ve detailed how you can follow Pro Football Rumors on Facebook, Twitter, or using an RSS reader to ensure that you receive all of our updates, 365 days a year. If you prefer to only receive news about your favorite NFL team, PFR has you covered. Below are links to our Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds for all 32 teams.
AFC East
- Bills: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Dolphins: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Jets: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Patriots: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
AFC North
- Bengals: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Browns: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Ravens: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Steelers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
AFC South
- Colts: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Jaguars: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Texans: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Titans: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
AFC West
- Broncos: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Chargers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Chiefs: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Raiders: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
NFC East
- Cowboys: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Eagles: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Giants: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Redskins: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
NFC North
- Bears: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Lions: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Packers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Vikings: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
NFC South
- Buccaneers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Falcons: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Panthers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
- Saints: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
NFC West
PFR Originals: 9/23/18-9/30/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Our Ben Levine took a look back at the Panthers’ decision to trade for pass-rusher Jared Allen as part of our ‘This Date In Transactions History’ series. Allen played a pivotal role for Carolina that year, starting 12 games as the Panthers made a Super Bowl run. It turned out to be the last year for one of the best pass-rushers of the 21st century, as Allen retired after that season.
This Date In Transactions History: Panthers Acquire Jared Allen
Three years ago today, the Panthers added a much-needed pass rusher to their squad. The team acquired defensive end Jared Allen from the Bears, with Chicago receiving a conditional sixth-round pick in return. While the five-time Pro Bowler had clearly lost a step by the time he made it to North Carolina, he still played a role in helping the Panthers win their conference.
After having spent six seasons with the Vikings, Allen inked a four-year, $32MM deal ($15.5MM) guaranteed with the Bears in 2014. The veteran put up solid stats during his lone full season in Chicago, compiling 56 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and two passes defended. With Vic Fangio hired as defensive coordinator in 2015, Allen was forced to switch from defensive end to linebacker. While he embraced the change, he failed to show the same kind of pass-rushing prowess, compiling only five tackles and zero sacks through the team’s first three games.
Meanwhile, the Panthers found themselves struggling with injuries among their front seven, as Luke Kuechly, Charles Johnson, and Frank Alexander were all hobbled. Having started the season 3-0, the organization decided to add some reinforcement to their defensive line, and they acquired Allen for a conditional pick.
Allen was plenty solid during his tenure with the Panthers, compiling 27 tackles and a pair of sacks in 12 games (12 starts). The veteran sat out the team’s NFC Championship Game victory over the Cardinals, but he returned in time for the Super Bowl. Allen finished that contest with a single tackle, as the Panthers fell to the Broncos, 24-10. Less than two weeks later, Allen announced his retirement, and he subsequently signed a one-day contract with the Vikings.
While Allen certainly isn’t known for his time in North Carolina, the veteran still played an important role in guiding the Panthers to their second Super Bowl appearance.
PFR Originals: 9/16/18-/9/23/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Our Sam Robinson took a look at the Le’Veon Bell situation as part of our Community Tailgate series. He broke down the latest news, Bell’s prospects in 2019 free agency, and solicited reader opinions in the comments section. It was reported earlier today that the Steelers would listen to trade offers for Bell.
- I asked readers in a poll which 0-2 team had the best chances of rebounding this season. I broke down the prospects of the Lions, Raiders, Texans, Giants, Bills, Cardinals, and Seahawks, and asked readers to weigh in. The Texans easily won the poll, earning over 43% of the vote.
Community Tailgate: Le’Veon Bell
Nothing’s transpired on the Le’Veon Bell front going into the Steelers’ Week 3 game, continuing one of the most unique sagas in modern NFL history.
Steelers brass bracing for a lengthy Bell absence looks accurate at this point, with no near-future debut date in sight for the two-time All-Pro running back. Rather than angle for more money in his Steelers walk year, Bell is taking a self-preservation stance in avoiding as much punishment as possible in hopes of securing a landmark free agency accord as a result.
But is he making the right decision? Bell will have lost out on more than $2.5MM by the end of Week 3 and stands to lose out on millions more if he pushes the holdout to the Week 10 deadline.
The Steelers placed the ball in his court. They aren’t going to rescind his franchise tag. They don’t plan to trade him, which would essentially place another team in their predicament as the employer of a rental player, and will not set a precedent of enhancing his prorated franchise tag number (once set at $14.5MM).
For now, probably the second-best player on a team that entered the season with the second-best odds at an AFC title is out of the picture despite being presumably healthy. Meanwhile, the Steelers are struggling at 0-1-1. While they aren’t exactly in must-win territory just yet, that time may be fast approaching. But the traditional organization caving to Bell by authorizing any kind of raise seems highly unlikely. And James Conner fared well in Week 1, when Pittsburgh’s game script was not thrust into the pass-heavy mode Week 2 required.
Bell’s banking on recouping the funds he’s currently losing, and then some, with major guaranteed money (which didn’t appear to be on the table from the Steelers, though reports vary on what guarantees were offered in July) come March.
He will be a coveted commodity as a free agent, but at 27 (in February) and with high mileage on his odometer regardless of when he resumes his Steelers career, can Bell expect to land a Todd Gurley– or David Johnson-level contract? Gurley signed his near-$15MM-per-year/$45MM guaranteed megadeal when he had 786 career carries. Johnson inked his three-year, $39MM accord with 429 career totes. Bell will begin his 2018 season with 1,229. That’s a substantial difference from not only his high-dollar ball-carrying peers but from backs who comprised recent free agent contingents. Teams could be leery of Bell slowing down in his late 20s as a result.
Some execs are not viewing the sixth-year player’s holdout as a smart move for his future. But then again, he’s going to draw interest because of his past production. And he’s obviously less likely to suffer an injury while away from the Steelers than playing in games. Although, Bell already has a serious knee injury on his NFL medical sheet — an MCL tear in 2015. The old-school workloads the Steelers gave him during his years as their starter, in addition to his past with injuries (which also includes maladies in the 2014 and ’16 playoffs), will Bell get what he wants come March?
Can these circumstances reach one-year, prove-it deal proportions? Or will Bell cash in due to some teams — headlined by the Colts and Jets — holding cap space and a lack of backfield options on his level? And how will this holdout affect his stock when it does come time to hit the market? What effect does this have on the Steelers’ 2018 hopes? Weigh in on this issue in the comments section.