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PFR Originals News & Rumors

PFR Originals: 7/8/18 – 7/15/18

July 15th, 2018 at 2:25pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Extension Candidate: Brandin Cooks

July 15th, 2018 at 9:31am CST by Rory Parks

Immediately after shipping a first- and sixth-round pick to the Patriots in exchange for wide receiver Brandin Cooks earlier this year, the Rams expressed interest in extending Cooks’ contract. And that makes sense, as Los Angeles presumably did not give up that type of draft capital with the intention of getting just one year of service from Cooks, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

But, as a young and accomplished wideout in today’s market, Cooks will not come cheap. After the trade to LA was consummated, our Zach Links suggested that the Oregon State product could land a contract approaching Mike Evans‘ recent mega-deal with the Buccaneers, a five-year, $82.5MM pact with up to $55MM in guarantees. While Cooks will almost certainly not get that type of money in an extension with the Rams, he may not be too far away.

Indeed, just last week we learned that Vikings wideout Stefon Diggs could command a deal worth at least $60MM over a four-year term, and he has not had a single 1,000-yard season yet. Cooks, meanwhile, is just a couple of months older than Diggs, and he has topped the 1,000-yard barrier in each of the past three seasons. In his only season in New England, he had 65 grabs for 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns, and he averaged 81 catches for 1,156 yards and eight scores during his final two years with the Saints.

Of course, Cooks has had the benefit of playing for two future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks in Drew Brees and Tom Brady, but there is no denying his ability. And while many perceive him to be primarily a deep threat, his new head coach, Sean McVay, believes Cooks is a well-rounded receiver. Last month, McVay said of Cooks, “he’s a guy — if you just look at, really, his career — he is a really fast player, but he can do everything. He plays big for a smaller-stature guy. But he’s strong. He can win short, he can win intermediate, he can go down the field. So I think you’re really not limited in any way that you can utilize him. And there’s a reason why he’s had over 1,000 yards and [at least] seven touchdowns each of the last three years. And he’s a special player for sure.”

If the Rams and Cooks are able to come to terms in the next couple of months, it would not be surprising to see Cooks bring home something in the neighborhood of Jarvis Landry‘s new contract with the Browns, which pays him over $15MM per year with $34MM in guaranteed money. Landry and Cooks are quite different in terms of style of play, but in terms of age and track record, they’re pretty similar. Because of his big-play ability, Cooks would probably seek a little more than Landry, which could make him a top-five receiver by AAV.

Since it was reported that the Rams were interested in extending Cooks, there has been no further news on that front, presumably because LA still wants to lock up Aaron Donald before addressing Cooks’ contract situation. If and when the Donald matter gets resolved, though, Cooks could be the next domino to fall. He will lead a strong receiving corps on a team that features a great deal of talent on both sides of the ball and that could be a legitimate title contender.

Extension Candidate: Bradley Roby

July 14th, 2018 at 7:50pm CST by Sam Robinson

After spending the better part of Champ Bailey‘s 10-year run in Denver trying to find a quality complementary cornerback, the Broncos landed two during a 2014 offseason in which they cut Bailey. And for the past four years, no team could match the Broncos’ cornerback trio of Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby.

This coming season will feature a different Denver secondary, however. The Broncos traded Talib to the Rams and signed Tramaine Brock to likely slide in as their new No. 3 corner. With Harris a proven starter, eyes will shift to Roby as he becomes a full-time first-unit player for the first time.

He’s entering a pivotal year for his future with Talib out of the picture. Likewise, the Broncos will see how their pass defense changes without Talib and will be eyeing Roby’s viability as a long-term cog. No extension talks have been known to have taken place this offseason. Roby’s salary spikes to $8.53MM on the fifth-year option, which is part of the reason the Broncos traded Talib and his $12MM cap number.

Denver’s right cornerback the past four years in sub-packages, Roby has both been a key presence on one of the best pass defenses in modern NFL history and enjoyed the odd distinction (for a former first-round pick) of being the third-best corner on his own team throughout that span. However, Roby’s held his own while teams largely tried to avoid Harris and Talib. In 674 snaps, Roby graded as Pro Football Focus’ No. 25 corner last season.

The Broncos are still relying on their Super Bowl 50 core, but they don’t have much of a future nucleus in place just yet. Despite having an integral role on the 2014 and ’15 Broncos teams that made the playoffs, Roby at 26 would fit the profile as a player to build around going forward.

On one hand, it would make sense for the Broncos to initiate talks with Roby now to see if they can get him locked down on the kind of team-friendly deal Harris signed in late 2014. After all, he held the same role for four seasons to give the team a solid glimpse of his capabilities. But given the kind of corner contracts handed out the past few years, it would also be logical for Roby to bet on himself and hope he can firmly place his price into the eight-figure-per-year range with a strong season as a starter.

The Logan Ryan/Dre Kirkpatrick/Jimmy Smith tier ($10MM-$11MM AAV) would be well within range for Roby if he thrives as a starter, with a possibility of a climb to a slightly higher perch — on a 2019 cap that can be expected to approach $190MM — likely in play as well.

While a Roby deal would keep part of the Broncos’ corner cast together, the team would also would seemingly have to address Harris. The All-Pro corner has played on an incredibly favorable deal for the Broncos the past three seasons and would be entering a contract year in 2019. The 29-year-old former UDFA proved to be the Broncos’ most consistent defensive back when he, Talib and Roby played together. And if Roby receives an extension, Harris would figure to justifiably ask for more on his next deal — if it comes from the Broncos. Denver also drafted third-round CBs the past two years in Brendan Langley and Isaac Yiadom. This route would provide an alternative to a future with two high-level cornerback contracts on the books, but Langley struggled in limited time as a rookie and Yiadom has yet to play a snap.

Also complicating a Roby re-up are the walk-year statuses of Matt Paradis and Shaquil Barrett — PFF’s top two overall RFAs from this past offer sheet window — along with the Broncos’ projected $9MM of 2019 cap space. Of course, some of their veterans’ contracts become easier to shed after this season, opening up flexibility in the event the Broncos believe they can retain Barrett and Paradis. Considering Miller and Bradley Chubb are signed long-term, that might not be feasible if Barrett has a strong contract year.

Of course, with corners and edge rushers being Denver’s calling card post-Peyton Manning, ensuring two quality outside cover men are still on the roster after this season could be a high priority for a team looking to maximize an older nucleus’ primes.

This Date In Transactions History: Chiefs Extend Matt Cassel

July 14th, 2018 at 4:45pm CST by Sam Robinson

In the 30 years prior to their Patrick Mahomes first-round pick, the Chiefs did not entrust their offenses to homegrown investments too often.

Once 1983 first-rounder Todd Blackledge did not pan out, this franchise proceeded to acquire a slew of veteran quarterbacks via trade or free agency and hoped one of those offseason additions could elevate the team to a long-sought-after Super Bowl return. Steve DeBerg, Dave Krieg, Joe Montana, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac and Rich Gannon all played key roles in piloting Chiefs teams to the playoffs during their successful 1990s run. Alex Smith helped deliver the most consistency since those years, leading Kansas City to four postseasons in five seasons, and Trent Green was at the controls of an explosive offense in K.C.’s run to the 2003 No. 2 seed.

But a key choice in Chiefs history came to fruition on this date nine years ago. In addition to being the key date on the Con Air timeline, July 14 proved to be a pivotal day for Matt Cassel. The Chiefs traded for Cassel in March of 2009 and signed him to a six-year, $63MM contract just prior to training camp that year.

This proved to be a windfall for the former Patriots backup. He received $28MM guaranteed and saw $40.5MM in that deal’s first three years. Cassel took over for Tom Brady after he suffered a season-ending injury against the Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2008 season. Completing a career-high 63.4 percent of his passes, Cassel guided the Patriots to an 11-win season. The Patriots used a $14.65MM franchise tag on Cassel but shipped him to the Chiefs, along with Mike Vrabel, for 2009’s No. 34 overall pick. (New England used that selection to draft Patrick Chung, who’s started at safety in each of the Pats’ past three Super Bowl appearances.)

In Kansas City, Cassel could not establish himself as a viable long-term solution. Though, the franchise was patient with Cassel at this decade’s outset, giving him 47 starts.

Cassel started four seasons for the Chiefs, but only one of those went well for him. He threw 27 touchdown passes compared to just seven interceptions in 2010 to lead the Chiefs to a surprising AFC West title, but he only started 17 games combined the next two seasons. Injuries and an eventual demotion limited Cassel’s playing time during the Chiefs’ final two Scott Pioli seasons, with a low point coming in Oct. 2012 when a sect of Chiefs fans cheered when the then-starter went down with an injury.

The Chiefs hired Andy Reid and John Dorsey following a disastrous 2-14 season in 2012, and they moved swiftly to add Smith. A day after Smith’s introductory press conference, the Chiefs cut Cassel. However, the Vikings immediately added the veteran as Christian Ponder‘s backup.

Cassel’s been able to land work consistently since. He started six games for the Vikes in 2013 and opened the 2014 season as Teddy Bridgewater‘s stopgap. Cassel was unable to beat out Tyrod Taylor for the Bills’ job in 2015, but he ended up starting seven games during Tony Romo‘s absence that year. He’s since been Marcus Mariota‘s backup and is now at age 36 in position to serve as Matthew Stafford‘s. Interestingly, Vrabel’s Titans decided to cut Cassel this offseason despite the duo’s history as teammates.

But Cassel’s most memorable NFL stay occurred in Kansas City, and he was paid handsomely in an attempt to revive a then-struggling franchise.

This Date In Transactions History: Jim Brown Retires

July 13th, 2018 at 8:03am CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 1966, one of the game’s all-time great rushers called it a career. Jim Brown walked away from football at the age of 30, citing a desire to be a civil rights advocate, a better family man, and a star of the silver screen. 

In today’s NFL, 30-year-old running backs are usually in the twilight of their careers. That was hardly the case with Brown, who ran for a league-leading 1,544 yards while averaging 5.3 yards a carry in 1965.

As good as Brown was, he had other interests, and those interests did not necessarily align with football. When the filming schedule for “The Dirty Dozen” conflicted with training camp, Brown chose the former. Browns owner Art Modell was furious at his decision and vowed to fine him $100 for every day he was not at practice.

So, on July 13, 1966, it was revealed that Brown would retire from the NFL. He formally announced the decision in a press conference on the set of “The Dirty Dozen” that week, but days earlier, he penned the following letter to Modell:

Dear Art:

I am writing to inform you that in the next few days I will be announcing my retirement from football. This decision is final and is made only because of the future that I desire for myself, my family and, if not to sound corny, my race. I am very sorry that I did not have the information to give you at some earlier date, for one of my great concerns was to try in every way to work things out so that I could play an additional year.

I was very sorry to see you make the statements that you did, because it was not a victory for you or I but for the newspaper men. Fortunately, I seem to have a little more faith in you than you have in me. I honestly like you and will be willing to help you in any way I can, but I feel you must realize that both of us are men and that my manhood is just as important to me as yours is to you.

It was indicated in the papers out of Cleveland that you tried to reach me by phone. Well, I hope you realize that when I am in my apartment I never refuse to answer my phone. The only reason that I did not contact you before I knew the completion date of the movie is that the date was the one important factor. You must realize that your organization will make money and will remain successful whether I am there or not. The Cleveland Browns are an institution that will stand for a long, long time.

I am taking on a few projects that are very interesting to me. I have many problems to solve at this time and I am sure you know a lot of them, so if we weigh the situation properly the ‘Browns’ have really nothing to lose, but Jim Brown has a lot to lose. I am taking it for granted that I have your understanding and best wishes, for in my public approach to this matter this will be the attitude that will prevail.

The business matters that we will have to work out we could do when I return to Cleveland. I will give you any assistance I can and hope your operation will be a success. You know the areas that I can be helpful and, even if you do not ask this help, my attitude will be one that I will do only the things that will contribute to the success of the ‘Cleveland Browns.’

Your friend,

Jim Brown

With that, Brown walked away from football and a yearly salary of about $60K. Brown undoubtedly still had gas in the tank, but he also had little left to prove on an individual level.

In nine years of pro football, Brown won the rushing crown eight times and retired as the league’s all-time leading rusher. Even today, the Hall of Famer is tenth on the NFL rushing yards list, which is extra impressive when considering that the regular season was shorter during his time in the league. And, decades later, Brown stands as the franchise’s all-time leading rusher with 12,312 yards on the ground.

Poll: Which 2017 Last Place Team Is Likeliest To Make Playoffs In 2018?

July 12th, 2018 at 6:20pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Turnarounds in the NFL often don’t take long. Unlike Major League Baseball, where prospects usually face a minimum promotion time of two years, new NFL players can make an impact during their respective rookie season. With more teams embracing the use of free agency and trades as avenues of player acquisition, it’s possible to improve a club year-over-year.

Worst-to-playoffs revamps happen nearly every season, and 2017 was no exception. Most famously, the Eagles used the progression of sophomore quarterback Carson Wentz and a few deft free agent signings to navigate a Super Bowl campaign only a year after finishing last in the NFC East. The Panthers, too, rebounded from a down 2016 to earn a postseason berth last season, and the Jaguars improved from 3-13 in 2016 to AFC runners-up in 2017.

So, which last place team from 2017 will make the leap into a playoff team during the upcoming season? Let’s take a look at the candidates:

New York Jets

While the Jets certainly look poised to contend in the future after adding quarterback Sam Darnold with the third overall pick, it seems unlikely they’ll come anywhere near first place in the AFC East in 2018. The Patriots, as ever, are considered the far-and-away favorites, and it’s not clear New York can even compete with the Dolphins for second place in the division. General manager Mike Maccagnan added a long-term building block in cornerback Trumaine Johnson, and solidified the Jets’ backfield signing both Isaiah Crowell and Thomas Rawls, but contention in 2018 probably isn’t in the cards.

Cleveland Browns

Going from a winless season to a postseason berth would certainly make for an excellent story, and some analysts have pegged Cleveland as a dark-horse candidate for a wild card spot in 2018. The Browns are dealing with new faces at nearly every level of their offense and defense, and players such as Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Hubbard should help on offense while linebacker Mychal Kendricks and defensive backs Denzel Ward, T.J. Carrie, E.J. Gaines, and Terrance Mitchell are fresh on defense. Still, the AFC North should be a tough division once again, making a Browns 2018 postseason run unlikely.

Houston Texans

Is there a more difficult division to figure out than the AFC South? The Jaguars return much of their core after reaching the AFC Championship Game in 2017, the Titans will add a new offensive philosophy to a roster than earned a Wild Card berth last season, and the Colts (fingers crossed) will see the return of Andrew Luck. The Texans could be the best team, however, especially if quarterback Deshaun Watson and defensive lineman J.J. Watt can stay healthy for the entire year. The major worry for Houston? It’s offensive line, which again looks to be one of the worst in the NFL.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos won the Super Bowl 29 months ago, but their title seems much farther in the rear-view mirror. Following Peyton Manning‘s retirement, Denver has failed to launch on offense while deploying quarterbacks Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, and Brock Osweiler. Case Keenum is now under center and will try to replicate his outstanding 2017 performance, but he won’t have the benefit of C.J. Anderson in the backfield. The Broncos’ defense is still their strength, but the club is now without corner Aqib Talib, who was traded to the Rams during the offseason.

New York Giants

Instead of opting for a rebuild, the Giants appear to be going all-in for one more run with Eli Manning at quarterback. New York could’ve used the second overall selection on a franchise quarterback, but instead opted for running back Saquon Barkley that may not have set up the club for the long haul (even if it does pay dividends in 2017). Additionally, the Giants are shifting to a 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher, and with three other strong teams residing in the NFC East, it’s unclear if New York is a serious contender.

Chicago Bears

The Bears already seem to be everyone’s favorite 2018 sleeper, and they certainly have an exciting roster. Chicago is just the latest team to leverage a rookie quarterback contract, taking the savings on Mitch Trubisky‘s below-market deal to add weapons such as Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, and Taylor Gabriel. Plus, the Bears’ defense remains underrated under longtime DC Vic Fangio. But the NFC North remains one of the NFL’s stronger divisions, and even an improvement from Chicago could keep them in the cellar behind Minnesota, Green Bay, and Detroit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After opting for continuity by surprisingly retaining head coach Dirk Koetter, the Buccaneers are already facing an early-season challenge after learning starting quarterback Jameis Winston will be suspended three games following the results of a sexual assault investigation. Tampa Bay certainly improved parts of its roster this offseason (its defensive line added Jason Pierre-Paul, Vinny Curry, Beau Allen, and Vita Vea), but as we’ve noted for other clubs above, even a robust free agent period won’t help if the team’s divisional opponents are difficult. The NFC South is perhaps the league’s most talented division, and it’s hard to see the Bucs placing above the Saints, Panthers, or Falcons.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to lose a game during his NFL career, but we’ll hold on off on projecting a 16-0 record for the 49ers. Still, San Francisco looks poised to compete for at least a Wild Card spot after inking free agents like Jerick McKinnon, Weston Richburg, and Richard Sherman, plus a draft class that included Mike McGlinchey and Dante Pettis. The Seahawks are no longer the force they once were, while the Cardinals are entering a mini-rebuild, so the Rams are the clear hurdle for the 49ers in the NFC West.

So what do you think? Which of these last place teams is likeliest to earn a postseason berth — either as a division winner or a wild card club — in 2018?

Which last place team will make the playoffs in 2018?
San Francisco 49ers 30.34% (450 votes)
Houston Texans 25.29% (375 votes)
New York Giants 12.68% (188 votes)
Denver Broncos 10.11% (150 votes)
Cleveland Browns 9.58% (142 votes)
Chicago Bears 8.56% (127 votes)
New York Jets 2.02% (30 votes)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.42% (21 votes)
Total Votes: 1,483

26 NFL Players Suspended To Start Season

July 12th, 2018 at 1:41pm CST by Zachary Links

Football gets underway in September, but not for these 26 players. Here’s a rundown of the players who have been suspended to start the 2018 season:

This Date In Transactions History: Mike Vrabel Retires

July 11th, 2018 at 8:03am CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2011, Mike Vrabel traded in his pads for a clipboard and whistle. Vrabel, a longtime NFL linebacker, retired from the Chiefs on July 11, 2011 in order to become an assistant coach at Ohio State.

Vrabel was just a few weeks shy of his 36th birthday at the time and was still a productive player on the field. In 2010, he amassed 48 total tackles for the Chiefs and appeared in all 16 games. However, he wasn’t the same player that he was in his prime with the Patriots, and the time he spent with the younger players in KC nudged him in the direction of coaching.

“His genuine love for the game, his preparation, his work ethic, leadership and dependability are qualities you want from every player,” then-Chiefs GM Scott Pioli said. “He is a champion in every sense of the word and I’m confident all of these qualities will make him a great coach. I cannot overstate my respect for him as a person and a football player.”

Pioli was right – he had a knack for this coaching thing. Although Vrabel was hired by interim Buckeyes coach (and his former teammate and roommate) Luke Fickell, Urban Meyer elected to keep him on board as a part of his new staff when he took over in December of 2011. In 2014, he hooked on with the Texans as their linebackers coach. In 2017, he was elevated to defensive coordinator in Houston. This past January, the Titans hired him as their head coach after a quick search.

“He was the ultimate team-first player, and he embodies that same mindset as a coach,” Titans GM Jon Robinson said after hiring Vrabel. “He is intelligent, energetic, detailed and a leader whose deep passion for this game will resonate with our players. As a coach, I have seen him develop talent at both the college and NFL level, and put players in position for them to be successful.”

Vrabel might have been able to contribute on the field for a 15th NFL season, but he opted to jumpstart his coaching career on this date seven years ago instead. If not for that decision, Vrabel probably wouldn’t have ascended the NFL coaching ladder as quickly as he did to become the Titans’ new head coach this year.

This Date In Transactions History: Matthew Stafford

July 10th, 2018 at 7:45pm CST by Ben Levine

Matthew Stafford is a rich, rich man. Five years ago today, the quarterback signed his second lucrative contract with the Lions. It was a three-year pact worth $53MM.

Nowadays, players look forward to these paydays, as the NFL’s rookie wage scale limits their earnings. However, back in 2013, Stafford was already playing on a lucrative contract with Detroit. After being selected as the first-overall pick in the 2009 draft, the Georgia product inked a record-breaking six-year deal worth $78MM ($41.7MM in guaranteed money). Stafford didn’t live up to his contract during first two seasons in the NFL. However, he had a breakout campaign in 2011, throwing for 5,038 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.

While he took a step back in 2012, the Lions still felt confident enough to sign Stafford to the three-year extension in 2013. At the time, the quarterback still had two seasons remaining on his contract, so the new deal effectively made it a five-year pact worth $76.5MM. The extension portion of the contract included $41.5MM in guaranteed money and a $27.5MM signing bonus. Signing Stafford early also allowed the Lions to reduce his impending $19.3MM cap hit.

“I want to be about the team,” he said at the time (via ESPN.com). “I want to help the team out if I can in cap space, whatever it is. I want good players around me as a quarterback. It doesn’t hurt to have weapons and, you know, if I can help out anyway I can, I’m happy to do it.”

In the five years since signing his second extension, Stafford had shown a lot more consistency on the field. The 30-year-old hasn’t missed a game during that span, and he’s averaged around 4,388 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions per season. This improvement played a role in him earning his third contract from the Lions. Last offseason, the quarterback inked a five-year deal worth $135MM ($92MM guaranteed).

Assuming he doesn’t opt out following the 2020 season, there’s a good chance Stafford will continue being the Lions quarterback through the 2022 campaign. He could reach free agency when he’s 35-years-old, meaning Detroit might end up inking their franchise player to his fourth pricey contract.

A Look At Every NFL Team’s Cap Room In July

July 9th, 2018 at 3:44pm CST by Zachary Links

The majority of this year’s top free agents have been signed, but there are still plenty of big names left on the board. You may also be surprised to learn that there are plenty of unspent dollars left in the league. According to the NFLPA, there’s $520MM left when accounting for unspent dollars and the players outside of the Top 51 on each roster.

As we noted in our look at Johnathan Hankins‘ free agent market, there are still 19 teams with at least $10MM in space, according to this metric. There’s an average of $16MM available per team and six clubs – the Bears, Browns, Texans, Colts, 49ers, and Titans – with over $25MM to burn. The overwhelming majority of this year’s draft picks have been signed, so these dollars largely available for extensions and free agent additions.

Here’s the rundown of every team’s cap room as of this writing:

  • 1. Browns – $66.8MM
  • 2. Colts – $51.1MM
  • 3. 49ers – $44.6MM
  • 4. Titans – $33.6MM
  • 5. Texans – $28.9MM
  • 6. Bears – $25.7MM
  • 7. Jaguars – $20MM
  • 8. Jets – $19.5MM
  • 9. Bills – $15.1MM
  • 10. Cowboys – $14.8MM
  • 11. Bengals – $14.4MM
  • 12. Buccaneers – $14.2MM
  • 13. Cardinals – $13.9MM
  • 14. Redskins – $13.2MM
  • 15. Packers – $10.8MM
  • 16. Patriots – $10MM
  • 17. Broncos – $9.3MM
  • 18. Ravens – $9MM
  • 19. Dolphins – $14.2MM
  • 20. Vikings – $14MM
  • 21. Seahawks – $10.6MM
  • 22. Lions – $9MM
  • 23. Chargers – $8.7MM
  • 24. Chiefs – $7.4MM
  • 25. Saints – $7.2MM
  • 26. Giants – $7.2MM
  • 27. Falcons – $7.1MM
  • 28. Eagles – $6.1MM
  • 29. Panthers – $5.2MM
  • 30. Steelers – $5.1MM
  • 31. Rams – $1.9MM
  • 32. Raiders – $1.9MM
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