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Free Agent Stock Watch: Johnathan Hankins

July 9th, 2018 at 1:07pm CST by Zachary Links

Last year, Johnathan Hankins was among the league’s most sought-after free agent defensive tackles. In July 2018, Hankins is without an NFL home. 

Hankins’ market dragged a bit last year due to his asking price, but he settled for less in April when he signed a three-year, $27MM deal with the Colts. In March of this year, the Colts surprised many by terminating his contract.

Hankins finished out the year as Pro Football Focus’ No. 20 ranked interior defender and the Colts had – and still have – an abundance of cap room. The Colts’ change from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 setup likely played a part in their decision, but Hankins had only worked out of a 4-3 scheme prior to joining Indianapolis. Hankins did not offer much against the pass in 2017, but he was exceptional against the run, which is the primary goal of any defensive tackle.

Since his release, Hankins has met with the Redskins and Jets, but did not sign with either club. So, what gives?

We haven’t heard much on Hankins in recent weeks, but it stands to reason that his asking price is keeping him from landing a deal. In 2017, Hankins’ camp told teams that he was looking for $15MM per year. Soon after, the asking price was reduced to a more reasonable $10MM per season, and he eventually accepted a $9MM/year pact from the Colts.

After turning in a solid season – nearly the best of his career, according to PFF – Hankins may be unwilling to take anything less than what he received from the Colts. It’s the only logical explanation for one of the league’s best run-stuffing DTs being left in limbo.

That position may seem foolish since many teams have already blown their wad in the first and second waves of free agency, but there are still plenty of dollars available, particularly when it comes to his potential suitors. The Jets, who might not want to bank on 32-year-old Steve McLendon in the middle, will still have about $14MM in cap room after they sign top draft pick Sam Darnold. The Packers, who might not have complete confidence in Kenny Clark taking the next step in 2018, have nearly $11MM in space after inking their entire draft class. The Cowboys, who will start the year without David Irving, have nearly $15MM to work with.

Between now and the start of the year, it’s entirely possible that a team could open up the checkbook to meet Hankins’ demands. In addition to the aforementioned clubs, there are still 16 teams with eight figures in cap room. Beggars can’t be choosers at this stage of the summer, but all it takes is one GM to cave.

Alternatively, Hankins may wind up taking his salary demands down a notch or two, which would greatly open up his possibilities. The Lions, for example, have just $9MM in space, but they may want to consider Hankins to beef up their line, even after signing Sylvester Williams in March.

If the market doesn’t meet his demands, Hankins may be willing to settle for a one-year platform contract in the $7MM range to reestablish his value. If quality defenders like Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, and Geno Atkins are taken off of the 2019 free agent list with extensions, Hankins could be on the path to riches next spring.

Extension Candidate: Carlos Dunlap

July 9th, 2018 at 11:09am CST by Zachary Links

Earlier this year, defensive end Carlos Dunlap opted to skip the Bengals’ organized team activities. The decision to work out on his own in Florida cost him $300K in bonuses, but it may have helped him ramp up pressure on the team as he pushes for a new deal. For his part, Dunlap claims his decision was made for football reasons. 

[RELATED:Tyler Kroft Seeking Contract Extension]

“All the comments and everything talking about the reasons for me not being here obviously hit home a little bit because they painted me to be a selfish guy, which was not my objective,” Dunlap said. “My goal was to make sure I was in the best shape for when football starts so that I can be there for my team for the long haul.”

Either way, it’s clear that Dunlap wants to stay with the Bengals beyond 2018 on a new and improved deal. The Bengals also want to keep him for the long haul, but only at the right price.

Dunlap is entering the final year of the six-year, $40MM extension he signed in 2013. The 29-year-old will earn a base salary of $7MM, which is well below his true value.

Extending Dunlap is a pricey proposition and the decision is complicated by the club’s other extension candidates. Fellow defensive lineman Geno Atkins is entering the final year of his contract and a new pact may call for upwards of $12MM per year. Cornerback Darqueze Dennard is coming off of a career year and the Bengals would like to keep him, despite the presence of Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson III. There’s also a trio of tight ends to consider in Tyler Kroft, Tyler Eifert, and C.J. Uzomah, and the team may want to leave some money in the coffers to re-sign defensive end Michael Johnson after the 2018 season.

The Bengals have also invested heavily in defensive ends in recent drafts by adding Carl Lawson, Jordan Willis, and Sam Hubbard. In theory, they can part with Dunlap if the price gets too high if they are confident in their your DE group.

Still, Dunlap has been tremendous in Cincinnati, particularly in the second half of games. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus have routinely rated him as a top-30 edge defender over the past seven seasons and he has been equally strong against the pass and the run. Even if the youngsters could do an admirably job in his stead, losing Dunlap would hurt the team’s front seven.

Dunlap is well aware of the riches that could await him in free agency as the edge defender market continues to rise sharply. In theory, Dunlap could parlay a big 2018 season into a $15MM/year deal, but he would be taking a risk if he cannot turn in another quality season for the Bengals. A new deal would give him financial security and, depending on the length of the deal, give him an opportunity to retire with the only club he’s ever known.

There are a lot of mouths to feed in Cincinnati, but Johnson’s expiring $6.1MM contract should provide the team enough room to get a deal done. If Dunlap is willing to sacrifice some upside in order to remain with the Bengals, the two sides could find a midpoint with a four-year extension in the range of $50MM. Alternatively, a shorter extension could make sense for the two sides. An additional three years added to Dunlap’s contract would allow him to hit the open market again at the age of 32 and give the Bengals some wiggle room should they look to hang on to their trio of younger defensive ends.

Community Tailgate: Safety Market

July 8th, 2018 at 8:44pm CST by Sam Robinson

With every team slated to open training camp this month, the strange quagmire that is the safety market remains crowded with proven performers. Three of the top four players from PFR’s free agent safeties list in March are still available four months later.

While other positions feature some key players unsigned as well — like Dez Bryant, Johnathan Hankins, Bashaud Breeland and Colin Kaepernick — the glut of safeties resides as the most interesting because most of the original UFA market’s best players are unattached as camps near.

Eric Reid, Tre Boston and Kenny Vaccaro appeared at Nos. 1, 3 and 4 on Dallas Robinson’s top UFA safeties list, and no member of this triumvirate is yet 28 years old. Both Reid and Vaccaro started for five seasons, with Boston being a full-time first-unit presence the past two years and intercepting five passes for the Chargers last season. Pro Football Focus placed both Boston and Reid in a tie for 30th among safeties last season. While Vaccaro struggled in 2017, he rated as one of the league’s better safeties in 2015 and ’16.

Due to Reid’s involvement in the protests during national anthems the past two seasons, his unattached status hovers over this contingent. The one-time Pro Bowler took one visit, meeting with the Bengals, only it did not go well when Mike Brown reportedly asked the 26-year-old defender if he would continue to kneel during the anthem (this was prior to the NFL’s new anthem policy forcing players to either stand or remain in the locker room during the song’s playing). Reid subsequently followed Kaepernick’s lead by filing a collusion grievance against the league and has not received any other known inquiry about his services since the Bengals summit.

Boston and Vaccaro have, each visiting the Colts. Boston also met with the Cardinals, while Vaccaro spoke with the Dolphins and was scheduled to visit the Jets earlier this offseason. Boston was not pleased with how his visits unfolded. At this point, it’s likely that both players — and some older UFAs like Tyvon Branch or T.J. Ward — will have to wait for preseason injuries or accept low-value, one-year pacts from teams if they are to play in 2018.

Of course, some safeties — like Tyrann Mathieu, Morgan Burnett, Bradley McDougald, Kurt Coleman and Ron Parker — did sign this offseason. But the money was not on the level of previous safety classes.

Excepting Mathieu’s one-year, $7MM deal, five 2017 UFA safeties’ contracts top anyone from this year’s market in terms of average annual value. Tony Jefferson, Barry Church, Micah Hyde, Johnathan Cyprien and T.J. McDonald all signed for at least $6MM per year in 2017, with most of those players not having the resumes of Reid or Vaccaro. Burnett signed for $4.7MM per year, and Coleman received $5.4MM AAV. With the cap having risen by $10MM, the deals completed this offseason were not in stride with the growth.

Theories have surfaced about why this gridlock’s occurred. Obviously, Reid has the most explosive belief about what’s transpiring. Michael Thomas, a special-teamer/safety who signed with the Giants for two years and $4MM, agrees collusion has affected the market. An anonymous agent concurred, saying the likes of Boston and Vaccaro are collateral damage from teams avoiding Reid. An ex-defensive coordinator said this position, despite this being a prime passing era, is not evaluated consistently by teams.

So, which theory is accurate? Is there another explanation for several prime-years safeties being overlooked? Will this be the new normal for this position, one that’s seen four players sign for at least $10MM AAV since Earl Thomas‘ then-record $10MM-per-year deal, or will 2018 be an outlier? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

5 Key Stories: 7/1/18 – 7/8/18

July 8th, 2018 at 5:49pm CST by Sam Robinson

Kam Chancellor is walking away from the game: But the Seahawks safety is not necessarily retiring. He revealed doctors have not seen sufficient improvement to green-light a return to the gridiron. As a result, Chancellor declared he will no longer pursue a comeback. The difference in the 30-year-old perennial Pro Bowler retiring and not playing again is big in this case, since Chancellor’s August 2017 extension guarantees him more than $10MM going forward due to injury. Nevertheless, the Seahawks are now to be without another Legion of Boomer. However, this won’t affect how the team will proceed with Earl Thomas.

Suspensions come down for NFC starters: Reuben Foster evaded significant legal trouble this offseason when his cases for domestic violence and marijuana possession were dismissed, but the 49ers linebacker will still be suspended for two games. Foster was suspended for violating the league’s personal-conduct and substance-abuse policies. Rams guard Jamon Brown will as well, with the starting interior lineman set to be out until Week 3. Packers running back Aaron Jones was also part of the pre-July 4 suspension news dump. Both Brown and Jones were deemed guilty of violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy.

Julian Edelman will miss a second straight September: Tom Brady‘s go-to wide receiver will miss another opening month after his PED suspension appeal failed. The Patriots will be without their slot presence in September. Edelman did not fight the results of this appeal — one centered around paperwork and documentation — the way he did the initial ban, however. Edelman, who missed all of last season due to injury, will miss games against the Texans, Lions, Dolphins and Jaguars.


Cardinals GM popped for DUI: NFL executives have been known to worry about player misconduct on and around July 4, but the Cardinals will be dealing with their top decision-maker’s actions that day. Steve Keim was cited for driving under the influence on Independence Day. The GM was booked and released that night, and he apologized for the sequence. Keim could face NFL discipline for this citation.

NFL attempting to force end to Colin Kaepernick case: Long mired in the former 49ers quarterback’s collusion grievance centered around his unique unemployment, the NFL is trying to put a premature end to these proceedings. The league is asking the judge in this case to issue a summary judgment, and if the judge rules in favor of the NFL, the case will end. By demanding to see further proof teams colluded against Kaepernick as a free agent, the NFL is hoping the quarterback’s attorneys will “put their cards on the table.” However, Kaepernick’s legal team isn’t expected to have a hard time making the argument to continue this case.

PFR Originals: 7/1/18 – 7/8/18

July 8th, 2018 at 5:19pm CST by Sam Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff over the past week:

This Date In Transactions History: John Lynch

July 8th, 2018 at 11:16am CST by Rory Parks

John Lynch has had an enviable career in professional sports. He was selected in the first round of the 1992 Major League Baseball draft by the expansion Florida Marlins, and he threw the first pitch in Marlins’ organizational history as a member of one of the team’s minor league affiliates, the Erie Sailors. His Sailors jersey resides in the National Baseball Hall of Fame as a result, but he was later selected in the third round of the 1993 NFL Draft by the Buccaneers, and he is probably pretty happy that he ultimately chose to pursue football.

Lynch spent the first 11 seasons of his NFL career with Tampa Bay, and during that time, he established himself as an elite safety. He became one of the most feared tacklers in the league, and he was heralded for his leadership both on and off the field. His playmaking statistics leave a little to be desired, as he tallied just 26 interceptions and 13 sacks in his 15-year career (although he did not become a full-time player until 1996, his fourth year in the league). That could be one of the reasons why he is still on the outside looking in at the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but his play went beyond raw stats. He was always someone that opposing offenses had to plan around, and his work earned him nine Pro Bowl bids and two First Team All-Pro selections. He was also a key figure in the Bucs’ only championship, helping the team capture Super Bowl XXXVII.

Tampa Bay released the two-sport Stanford athlete following the 2003 campaign, and he was snapped up by the Broncos. Despite switching from strong safety to free safety, Lynch maintained a high level of play with his new club, as he was selected to the Pro Bowl in each of his four seasons in Mile High. He served as Denver’s defensive captain during the 2006-07 seasons, and on this day in 2007, he and the Broncos agreed to terms on a renegotiated contract that would keep him with the team for one more year.

He considered hanging up the cleats after the 2007 campaign, but Broncos owner Pat Bowlen convinced him to come back for one last hurrah. Even at age 36, though, Lynch expected to be on the field for every snap, and it became clear during the 2008 training camp that he would not be used in sub-packages. He ultimately left the team and was signed by the Patriots, though he never played a regular-season game for New England, which released him just a few weeks later.

Lynch formally announced his retirement in November 2008, and he subsequently enjoyed a successful stint as a color commentator for Fox. He was surprisingly named GM of the 49ers in January 2017, and while the jury is obviously still out on his tenure as an NFL executive, the early returns are promising.

Taking over a club in the midst of a full-scale rebuild, Lynch managed to acquire the team’s quarterback of the future in Jimmy Garoppolo last October in exchange for a second-round draft pick. This offseason, he (briefly) made Garoppolo the highest-paid player in NFL history, even though the East Illinois product has played a grand total of seven games in his professional career. Lynch’s fate with the 49ers will, of course, be tied to Garoppolo’s, but he has done as well as could be expected thus far. Indeed, San Francisco is being mentioned as a fringe playoff contender, no mean feat considering the roster that Lynch inherited. And while the playoffs may still be out of reach in 2018, one more good offseason of work could get the 49ers back to postseason play.

This date 11 years ago therefore marked the beginning of the end of Lynch’s on-field career, but his involvement with the league after retiring as a player has been pretty notable in its own right. He is a member of the Buccaneers’ Ring of Honor and the Broncos’ Ring of Hame, and he remains a viable candidate for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. And while it’s certainly too early to engage in these types of discussions, maybe he’ll one day get into Canton as an executive even if he doesn’t make it as a player.

Extension Candidate: Stefon Diggs

July 8th, 2018 at 9:31am CST by Rory Parks

Back in May, we learned that the Vikings hoped to extend the contracts of a few of their key young players: Anthony Barr, Stefon Diggs, and Danielle Hunter.  Hunter just signed a lucrative long-term deal at the end of June, which allows the team to turn its attention to Barr and Diggs. We have already examined Barr as an extension candidate, so now let’s take a deeper look into Diggs’ case for a new contract.

Earlier this decade, Diggs was one of the most sought-after high school recruits, a consensus five-star prospect who landed scholarship offers from blue-blood programs like USC, Ohio State, and Auburn. But Diggs, a Maryland native, spurned those offers and opted to play for his hometown school, which delighted Terrapins fans but which may have had a negative impact on his earning power during the early stages of his professional career. Although Diggs flashed his breathtaking talent at Maryland, he was held back to some degree by poor quarterback play and by injuries. so when he elected to forego his senior season and enter the NFL Draft in 2015, he slipped to the fifth round, where the Vikings finally scooped him up (Diggs’ smallish stature also didn’t help his cause).

It would be hard for Diggs to complain too much, though, as he has established himself as one of the best young wideouts in the league during his first three years in Minnesota, and he will head into his platform year with the prospect of catching passes from the best quarterback he has ever played with, Kirk Cousins. If all goes according to plan, Diggs could be one of the hottest commodities on the open market next offseason, and the Vikings would like to lock him up before that happens.

As usual, there are some issues for both sides to think about when negotiating Diggs’ big payday. Diggs has yet to top 1,000 yards in a season, and his professional career, much like his collegiate one, has been hampered by injuries. Though Diggs has not yet missed significant time as a pro, he has dealt with groin issues in each of the last two seasons, and he said he was “never the same” in 2017 after suffering a groin injury in Week 4. His knee and hip have also given him problems.

On the other hand, the receiver market has been booming, and Joel Corry of CBS Sports believes that Davante Adams‘ four-year, $58.5MM extension with the Packers would be a realistic foundation for contract discussions (after all, Adams has not yet cracked the 1,000-yard mark either, and he only recently became Green Bay’s No. 1 receiving option). Alternatively, now that the Vikings have Hunter under contract for the foreseeable future, Diggs could be hit with the franchise tag next offseason, though the $17MM projected tag number for receivers may be unpalatable for Minnesota, regardless of how good Diggs is in 2018.

Corry suggests that, in light of the massive contracts that relatively unaccomplished receivers are pulling down, Diggs may be inclined to test the open market even if he ultimately wants to remain with the Vikings. The guess here, though, is that the two sides will reach an accord before Diggs officially hits free agency. Minnesota has a track record of extending its key players during contract years, and the chance to lock in a boatload of guaranteed money may be too enticing for Diggs to pass up, as he has played the first few years of his career on a bargain fifth-round rookie deal. He will likely not reset the receiver market even if he becomes a free agent, and Minnesota will certainly pay him like a top-10 player at his position. A four-year pact in the neighborhood of $60MM, with $20MM or so in guarantees, seems like a good bet.

Poll: Which Rookie RB Will Rush For Most Yards In 2018?

July 7th, 2018 at 4:35pm CST by Sam Robinson

In selecting their third first-round running back of this century, the Giants continued to show how they regard this position despite its marginalization over the past several years. Saquon Barkley is the odds-on favorite to win offensive rookie of the year.

However, the running back position produces annual mid- or late-round surprises — from Devonta Freeman to Jordan Howard to Kareem Hunt — that end up providing immense value to certain teams. The Giants obviously have an incredibly gifted ball-carrier set to take handoffs from Eli Manning, but which of Barkley’s peers is in the best position to challenge him (and the quarterback contingent) for the OROY honor?

The other two first-round RBs look to be less equipped for a strong challenge due to circumstances.

Sony Michel‘s prospects of being an immediate ground producer may have been better on a different team. While the Patriots boast one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, Bill Belichick notoriously finds myriad usages for his backs and involves nearly all of them. Although, Dion Lewis‘ departure after a 180-carry season opens the door for someone to take over as New England’s primary back. And Michel averaged 7.9 yards per carry on 156 totes at Georgia last season. Rashaad Penny looks to be behind Chris Carson to start the season, and the surprise first-rounder may be given time to develop for a Seattle team that’s struggled on the ground for a few years now.

After Round 1, however, it becomes a bit more interesting. The Buccaneers did not possess a formidable depth chart at running back prior to investing their second-round pick in USC’s Ronald Jones. In 2017, Jones rushed for 1,550 yards and scored 20 total touchdowns. He could well be an early-season starter, with the likes of Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber in his path toward a first-string role. Chosen just before Jones, Nick Chubb will have to contend with Carlos Hyde in Cleveland this season for the revamped Browns. Chubb, though, notched three 1,000-yard seasons in the nation’s toughest conference.

Kerryon Johnson looks to be set to start in a committee in Detroit, but the Lions have been desperate for a surefire ground producer for years now. And they view Johnson as a three-down back. LeGarrette Blount and Ameer Abdullah reside in the Motor City carries picture, but neither would impede Johnson from a major role if he proves ready from the outset. Derrius Guice could have a quicker path to playing time in Washington. Considered by some the second-best back in this draft, the LSU product fell largely because of character concerns. However, Guice averaged 7.6 yards per carry in 2016 on nearly 200 attempts and is expected to push for the Redskins’ starting job from the start.

Also expected to challenge for an early role: the Broncos’ Royce Freeman. The Oregon-developed talent posted three 1,300-plus-yard seasons with the Ducks, amassing a staggering 947 college carries. With the Broncos having moved on from four-year starter C.J. Anderson, only Devontae Booker (299 rushing yards last season) resides in the third-rounder’s path. Is he a threat to be the 2018 version of Hunt?

As for Barkley, he has the most obvious route to a full-time gig. Despite Jonathan Stewart now being in the Big Apple, the Penn State dynamo will factor in from the start of the Giants’ season. And the three-down back totaled at least 2,300 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back years for the Nittany Lions. The Giants have questions up front, having lost Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, but they added multiple UFAs — spearheaded by Nate Solder — and chose likely Day 1 starter Will Hernandez in Round 2.

So, will Barkley’s situation be too much for the rest of this class to overcome, a la Ezekiel Elliott? Or will one of the later-round picks emerge in Hunt fashion? Is there a Day 3 dark horse in this year’s class in the mold of Freeman or Howard? Take PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Which rookie RB will rush for the most yards this season?
Saquon Barkley, Giants 35.79% (686 votes)
Derrius Guice, Redskins 13.20% (253 votes)
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks 12.52% (240 votes)
Kerryon Johnson, Lions 8.50% (163 votes)
Nick Chubb, Browns 8.14% (156 votes)
Royce Freeman, Broncos 8.14% (156 votes)
Sony Michel, Patriots 7.62% (146 votes)
Ronald Jones, Buccaneers 5.43% (104 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 0.68% (13 votes)
Total Votes: 1,917

This Date In Transactions History: Kerry Collins

July 7th, 2018 at 9:08am CST by Ben Levine

Seven years ago today, many of us assumed that veteran NFL quarterback Kerry Collins was officially walking away from the game. That didn’t end up being the case.

The long-time quarterback really doesn’t need an introduction. After being selected with the fifth-overall pick by Carolina in the 1995 draft, the Penn State product’s professional career would end up stretching more than 15 seasons. Come 2011, the signal-caller was wrapping up a relatively successful tenure with the Titans.

Following stints with the Panthers, Saints, Giants, and Raiders, Collins had joined Tennessee on a one-year contract in 2006. With the Titans having recently used their third-overall pick on quarterback Vince Young, Collins ended up being shuffled in and out of the team’s starting lineup during his time with the team. This included a 2008 campaign that saw him make the Pro Bowl and lead the Titans to an AFC South title.

The Titans got off to an 0-6 start during the 2009 season, prompting Titans owner Bud Adams to request that Collins be replaced by Young. The 2006 first-rounder led his team to five straight wins, although the veteran regained his role the following season. Collins ended up appearing in 10 games (seven starts) in 2010, completing 57.6-percent of his passes for 1,823 yards, 14 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. On July 7th, 2011, Collins ended up announcing his retirement from the NFL, and the Titans reset their quarterback depth chart with Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker.

Collins’ retirement was short-lived, as the veteran inked a one-year, $4MM contract with the Colts in late August. Peyton Manning was recovering from offseason neck surgery (a procedure that would force him to miss the entire campaign), so Collins slid into the starting role for the start of the regular season. He ended up showing his age during his Indy stint, leading his team to an 0-3 record in his three starts. Collins completed only 49-percent of his passes for 481 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.

Collins landed on the Colts’ injured reserve after suffering a concussion in October, and he was released by the team the following March. Collins subsequently announced his second retirement, and this time he didn’t back out of the decision. The now-45-year-old ranks in the top-15 all-time in completions and passing yards.

Poll: Who Is AFC West Favorite?

July 6th, 2018 at 10:03pm CST by Sam Robinson

The AFC South’s received some justifiable buzz about being perhaps the conference’s strongest division. However, for sheer intrigue, the AFC West might have that beat.

A credible case can be made for all four teams winning the division. Prior to training camp and preseason injuries, though the Chargers have already suffered a big one, this division can be categorized as wide open.

The Chiefs are coming off the only instance in franchise history of back-to-back division titles. They added Sammy Watkins to an explosive skill-position core, albeit at a lofty price, and return most of their improving offensive line. The obvious question will be the viability of Patrick Mahomes, the franchise’s first Round 1 QB investment since 1983 but a player who is replacing one of the NFL’s most risk-averse passers in Alex Smith. Will Mahomes be able to keep the Chiefs’ loaded offense afloat while he learns on the job?

Defensively, the Chiefs threw big dollars at longtime Cowboys starter Anthony Hitchens, poached RFA Xavier Williams away from the Cardinals and traded for Kendall Fuller to man the slot. However, the since-traded Marcus Peters profiled as one of the best cornerbacks in team history and was responsible for the most forced turnovers among any corner since he entered the league. Can the Chiefs, who have some injury questions affecting edge presences Justin Houston and Dee Ford, be expected to boast a sufficient pass rush?

Las Vegas views the Chargers as the biggest threat to the Chiefs’ crown, despite the franchise having not won the division since 2009. Los Angeles featured the only team in the division to end last season with top-12 DVOA offensive and defensive units. Philip Rivers bounced back from a substandard season and ended the year ranked behind only Tom Brady in DYAR. He now has Mike Pouncey set to block for him.

Derwin James joins a defense that houses the now-extended Casey Hayward and the dynamic Melvin Ingram/Joey Bosa edge tandem. While Hunter Henry‘s ACL tear deprives Rivers of one of his go-to options, an issue the Bolts have dealt with frequently in the recent past and haven’t taken any steps to remedy this year, Keenan Allen and Co. represent a promising pass-catching contingent.

Oakand plummeted from last season’s favorite to a team that purged its coaching staff. And the Raiders, after steady building under Reggie McKenzie since he took over as GM, set off on a different course this offseason under Jon Gruden. Some of McKenzie’s power’s been stripped, and the Raiders signed a slew of free agents. They took more risks in the draft and free agency than in the recent past, Martavis Bryant chief among them.

That said, the Silver and Black still have one of the league’s better offensive lines and a 2016 MVP candidate who suffered an injury last season in Derek Carr. This is likely the division’s most enigmatic team.

What needs to happen for the Broncos to rebound isn’t mysterious. Case Keenum must provide the kind of improvement over Denver’s previous quarterbacks that will justify a franchise-QB (albeit at just $18MM AAV) salary. The Broncos still have plenty of holdovers from their Super Bowl 50 team and managed to add Bradley Chubb and three offensive players — Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman and DaeSean Hamilton — the team hopes will provide a better supporting cast for Keenum after featuring top-heavy skill batteries the past three years.

All of this said, the Broncos are entrusting the back end of some key players’ primes to Keenum’s out-of-nowhere breakout being legitimate. They passed on Josh Allen and Josh Rosen for a more immediate solution, so plenty rides on the 30-year-old Keenum.

So, who enters training camp with the best roster? Can Mahomes elevate the Chiefs to a higher level from the get-go, or will Smith’s exit be noticeable in 2018? Will the Chargers finally break through after a quiet offseason? Can the Broncos salvage what’s left of their championship core’s windows, or is that contending avenue closed? What do you make of the Raiders’ new-look depth chart?

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Who is the favorite to win the AFC West?
Los Angeles Chargers 28.63% (491 votes)
Kansas City Chiefs 27.52% (472 votes)
Oakland Raiders 26.47% (454 votes)
Denver Broncos 17.38% (298 votes)
Total Votes: 1,715
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