PFR Originals News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Geno Atkins

This offseason, we have (rightfully) heard a great deal about potential extensions for star defenders Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, and Jadeveon Clowney. That discussion has overshadowed Geno Atkins, to some extent, as he pushes for a new deal.

The defensive tackle inked a five-year, $53.3MM extension with the Bengals back in 2013, which has him in place through the 2018 season. The deal has proved to be a winner for both sides. For the Bengals, the deal allowed them to keep a top performer under contract at roughly $10.6MM per year while the market advanced at a sharp rate. Atkins, meanwhile, made more cash than he could ever hope to spend and is now primed to do it all over again at the age of 30.

When Atkins’ deal began in 2014, he was the NFL’s third-highest paid 4-3 defensive tackle with a $9MM cap number. Today, his $9.5MM cap figure for 2018 places him seventh in the same category. After finishing the year as Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 ranked interior defender – behind only Donald – something has to change.

Like Donald, Atkins is a stout run defender with the ability to also disrupt opposing quarterbacks from the interior. Atkins has notched at least nine sacks in each of the last three seasons, and, save for the 2013 season cut short by an ACL tear, he has never missed a game. Donald is still three years younger and in a class of his own, but Atkins has been far more dominant than many outside of Cincinnati realize.

If Donald signs first, Atkins’ camp will have a favorable comp to work off of, even though his deal will be worth less. The Bengals aren’t technically on the clock here, but they may want to get a deal done sooner rather than later.

A new deal for Atkins will definitely cost eight figures per year, but it remains to be seen how far the Bengals will go. With a fluid cap situation both this year and next, you can expect the Bengals to lock up Atkins on a multi-year deal worth around $12MM per season.

This Date In Transactions History Series

For the last several weeks, we’ve been commemorating some of the NFL’s most interesting moves with our “This Date In Transactions History” series. In case you missed any of them, here’s a rundown of every entry:

Extension Candidate: Jadeveon Clowney

Despite an injury-riddled rookie season, Texans edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney has blossomed into one of the league’s best defensive players. Now coming off of his second-straight Pro Bowl selection and his first full season, Clowney is pushing for a lucrative new deal to put him near the top of the market at his position. 

[RELATED: Who Will End Offseason As NFL’s Highest-Paid Defender?]

Thanks to the fifth-year option, the Texans have Clowney under contract for 2018 at a salary of $12.3MM. After that, Clowney will be eligible to hit the open market, unless the Texans use the franchise tag or iron out an extension with him.

The projected franchise tag amount often provides a framework for deals, but it’s a bit more complicated than that in Clowney’s case. In 2016, Clowney saw a great deal of time at defensive end in the Texans’ 3-4 scheme. Last year, he saw more time at linebacker than defensive end. It remains to be seen how Clowney’s position will be defined for purposes of the tag. If he’s classified a linebacker, then the tag will be worth around $16.3MM in 2019. If he’s considered a defensive end, then the Texans will be looking at the prospect of at least $18MM for the one-year placeholder.

The Texans and Clowney have not made significant strides on an extension just yet, and that could have something to do with Clowney’s slower-than-expected recovery from a recent knee procedure. The pending extensions for Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald may also hold things up. We could see a three-way game of chicken here as each player would probably like to use one of the other deals as a framework for talks. Then again, Clowney is not quite as accomplished as Mack and Donald, so his agents might not be wary about being the first to the trough.

So, what sort of deal would make sense for both sides? The Texans showed a willingness to back up the Brinks truck in 2014 when they gave J.J. Watt a six-year, $100MM deal, but his injury issues are a reminder of the risks that come with big-money deals.

Clowney’s camp will certainly use Watt’s deal as a reference point, but they could use Olivier Vernon‘s five-year, $85MM free agent deal with the Giants as their real blueprint. Clowney just turned 25 in February, so a shorter deal would allow him to hit the open market near the age of 30, giving him an opportunity to cash in all over again. Copying Vernon’s deal to the letter would give Clowney $17MM/year on average with a whopping $40MM fully guaranteed at signing. An equivalent deal adjusted for cap increases, meanwhile, would give him nearly $19.5MM per season, which may be too rich for the Texans’ blood. For reference, the AAV on that deal would top Von Miller‘s six-year, $114.6MM contract, which presently stands as the league’s richest deal for a defensive player.

LSU, Alabama Lead NFL In Cap Dollars By College

Alabama won the national championship this year, but LSU has them beat in another category. More salary cap dollars in the NFL are being spent on Tigers alum than any other school in the country, according to Over The Cap.

Former LSU players are set to take in a total of $160.37MM NFL dollars this year, thanks in part to top earners such as Jarvis Landry, Patrick Peterson, Andrew Whitworth, Michael Brockers, and Odell Beckham Jr. Alabama – a group that includes Julio Jones, Marcell Dareus, Mark Barron, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Kareem Jackson – is not far behind at $157.12MM.

Here’s the rundown of the Top 25, according to OTC:

Rk. College # of players Cap Dollars
1 LSU 61 $160,369,274
2 Alabama 60 $157,122,963
3 USC 48 $151,068,123
4 Georgia 44 $149,165,318
5 Ohio State 53 $130,270,159
6 Miami 50 $128,288,740
7 California 33 $126,843,410
8 Florida State 50 $121,923,570
9 Florida 51 $118,224,071
10 Oklahoma 38 $105,483,720
11 Stanford 36 $100,104,655
12 Wisconsin 32 $95,928,735
13 Clemson 42 $90,882,721
14 Michigan State 28 $90,363,894
15 Notre Dame 38 $88,797,566
16 South Carolina 28 $88,350,715
17 Texas A&M 33 $85,645,140
18 Iowa 33 $82,139,839
19 Tennessee 38 $79,788,631
20 Penn State 40 $75,628,782
21 Oregon 33 $73,695,597
22 Mississippi State 25 $71,898,567
23 Michigan 36 $71,787,690
24 Mississippi 28 $71,757,391
25 Nebraska 33 $66,999,307

There has been some movement on this list since 2017. In September of last year, Georgia led the way thanks to the big money contracts of Justin Houston, Cordy Glenn, Matthew Stafford, A.J. Green, Geno Atkins, and Thomas Davis. After that, USC, Alabama, LSU, and Cal rounded out the top five.

The list may also change between now and the start of the 2018 season. For example, if the Falcons give Jones the contract enhancement he’s seeking, Alabama could easily regain the top spot.

OTC also has the breakdown of cap dollars spent per FBS conference. As expected, the SEC leads the way with nearly $1.2 billion spent on its former players. After that, it’s the Big Ten ($834.41MM), Pac-12 ($796.4MM), ACC ($789.6MM), Big 12 ($419.21MM), The American ($299.85MM), Mountain West ($231.81MM), Mid-American ($190.55MM), Conference USA ($154.3MM), the Independents ($130.37MM, led by Notre Dame), and the Sun Belt ($96.34MM). Players from outside of the FBS fall somewhere in the middle, with a total of $643.31MM.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Dez Bryant?

Dez Bryant, to our knowledge, has not drawn a significant offer since turning down a three-year, $21MM offer from the Ravens. As his market stagnated, Bryant’s camp leaked word that he would not be signing until July. Well, here we are.

We’ve heard very little about Bryant over the last four weeks, so it’s anyone’s guess as to where he’ll land. And, if it’s anyone’s guess, it might as well be our guess. Before we ask you predict where Bryant will land, let’s run down some of the possible contenders: 

49ers Bryant has openly lobbied for an opportunity with the Niners and there’s reason to believe that could become a reality. The 49ers stayed away from the wide receivers at the top of this year’s free agent market, but Bryant’s price tag figures to be a lot lower than that of Sammy Watkins or Allen Robinson. With more than $45MM in cap room – good for third-highest in the NFL – the Niners certainly have the space to take on a player of Bryant’s caliber. And, because they have an eye on the future, they could be willing to give Bryant the one-year platform deal he is seeking. The 49ers have some talent at wide receiver including Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin, but none of the receivers expected to make the roster are above 6’0″. Bryant – billed at 6’2″ – would give provide them with a tall red zone target.

Bills – Outside of No. 1 WR Kelvin Benjamin, the Bills have tons of question marks at the position. Bryant is the best wide receiver still available (or, at least, the biggest name left), so he could make some sense as the player to supplant the unreliable Zay Jones as the team’s No. 2 WR. Bills GM Brandon Beane didn’t sound enthusiastic when talking about Bryant back in April, but he didn’t explicitly rule him out either.

Cardinals – After losing both John Brown and Jaron Brown, the Cardinals could be interested in adding some talent to their wide receiver group. Then again, they may already feel comfortable with J.J. Nelson, rookie Christian Kirk, and free agent addition Brice Butler behind Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals have upwards of $13MM in cap space, according to the NFLPA, so they have the cash necessary to sign Bryant if they want him.

Cowboys – When the Cowboys released Bryant earlier this year, they were not aware of Jason Witten‘s impending retirement. Months later, could they circle back to Bryant in order to fortify their lackluster WR group? Probably not, but we’ll put them on the board anyway and let you decide.

Eagles – After Bryant was released, he indicated that he wanted to play in the NFC East in order to face the Cowboys pay twice in 2018. The Eagles, in theory, could make some sense now that Torrey Smith is out of the picture and Alshon Jeffery is out for the offseason with a shoulder injury. However, the Eagles already have a new veteran in Mike Wallace and their $6MM in cap space might not be enough to land Bryant, even if they wanted him.

Packers – The Packers have been speculatively linked to Bryant over the last few months. Some see a potential fit, but others, such as Aaron Rodgers, do not. The Packers are now without Jordy Nelson, but they drafted three wide receivers while retaining Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Geronimo Allison, so there might not be any room in the inn.

Patriots – The Patriots will be without Julian Edelman for the first four games of the year, which could lead them to consider Bryant. They also have a history of signing older big-name wide receivers with reputation problems, including Randy Moss and Chad Johnson (some worked out better than others), so the possibility of adding the mercurial Bryant cannot be discounted. On the other hand, they have plenty of weapons to get them through the opening month of the season in Chris Hogan, Kenny Britt, Jordan Matthews, Phillip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson, not to mention Malcolm Mitchell and speedy rookie Braxton Berrios, who may or may not make the final cut. There’s also a tight end by the name of Rob Gronkowski who should be able to catch an extra pass or two while Edelman is out.

Saints – With a wide receiver group of Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., free agent addition Cameron Meredith, third round pick Tre’Quan Smith, and Brandon Coleman, is there room for Bryant? Not necessarily, but there also wasn’t a clear spot for Adrian Peterson in New Orleans before the Saints signed him last year. The Saints have a little more than $7MM in cap space, which could be enough to sign Bryant depending on his market at this stage of the offseason and his desire to play for a contender.

Redskins – Former teammate Orlando Scandrick has advocated for Washington to sign Bryant and the Redskins would give him the opportunity to face the Cowboys twice per year. The problem, however, is that the Redskins seem pretty set at the top of the order with Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder, and Paul Richardson.

Titans – The Titans have talent at wide receiver, but Rishard Matthews‘ support staff is decidedly inexperienced. With Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Tajae Sharpe all yet to celebrate their 24th birthday, could the Titans consider Bryant? In theory, he would add some experience to the group, but he might not be a great influence on the younger guys.

Click below to make your choice and defend your decision in the comment section:

Which Team Will Sign Dez Bryant?
49ers 23.39% (626 votes)
Patriots 15.66% (419 votes)
Packers 11.62% (311 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 9.19% (246 votes)
Redskins 8.18% (219 votes)
Bills 7.81% (209 votes)
Saints 5.19% (139 votes)
Cowboys 5.12% (137 votes)
Titans 5.01% (134 votes)
Eagles 4.75% (127 votes)
Cardinals 4.07% (109 votes)
Total Votes: 2,676

This Date In Transactions History: NFL Suspends Dolphins’ Dion Jordan

In 2013, the Dolphins made defensive end Dion Jordan the highest selected University of Oregon product since Joey Harrington in 2002. Like Harrington, the selection of Jordan did not prove to be a good one.

Jordan, the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, was only a part-time player as a rookie and his sophomore campaign did not get off to a promising start. On this date in 2014, Jordan was banned for the first four games of the season after a violation of the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

For his part, Jordan claimed that he tested “positive for stimulants that are banned under the NFL policy.” In September, his suspension was lifted as a part of the league’s overhaul of its drug policy, but he was immediately hit with another four-game suspension for a separate infraction. Jordan wound up missing the first six games of the 2014 season and underwhelmed in the ten games he did play.

In 2015, Jordan lost his entire season after the NFL found that he diluted one of his test samples. He was conditionally reinstated in 2016, but the Dolphins were forced to place him on the NFI list as he was recovering from a knee surgery that he did not inform the team about. After a second knee surgery in the fall, the Dolphins were fed up, and they opted against activating Jordan for the home stretch of the season.

The good news here is that Jordan may finally be on the right track. Last year, he hooked on with the Seahawks and showed promise in a small five-game sample as he tallied four sacks. This offseason, the Seahawks retained Jordan on a one-year, $1.9MM deal. He underwent a minor knee procedure in June, but Seattle expects to have him back in time for the preseason.

Extension Candidate: David Johnson

If it wasn’t previously clear, David Johnson‘s importance to the Cardinals was emphasized after he was lost to a season-ending injury back in September. The team’s offense ultimately finished with 86.6 rushing yards per game, the third-worst mark in the league, and their 3.4 yards per carry was the second-lowest average in the NFL. However, while Johnson is undoubtedly a huge part of the Cardinals’ offense, the front office may be hesitant to pay the former third-rounder top dollar.

The 26-year-old is set to earn $1.8MM in the final year of his rookie contract in 2018. While previous contract negotiations had been described as productive, Johnson surprisingly sat out the team’s mandatory minicamp last month. This may simply be an attempt by Johnson’s camp to lock up a long-term deal as soon as possible. After all, the running back is coming off a campaign that saw him appear in only a single game, and another injury could cost him some big money. Either way, Johnson’s June hold out was partly semantics; if the running back fails to report to the team by August 7th, it would delay his free agency by an entire year.

However, while negotiations may not necessarily be hostile, there’s clearly a discrepancy between the team’s offer and Johnson’s asking price (if there wasn’t, the two sides would have presumably come to an agreement by now). Joel Corry of CBSSports.com suggests that Johnson’s camp may be waiting until there’s clarity on Le’Veon Bell‘s deal with the Steelers. Previous reports indicated that Pittsburgh had offered a five-year, $60MM deal to their star running back, but Bell was seeking a contract that would equal the $17MM average annual value of teammate Antonio Brown‘s deal. If Bell gets his way (or if he does significantly better than the $60MM offer), Corry believes that “could be a game changer for Johnson.”

As things stand right now, the Cardinals seem to be in the driver’s seat thanks to the modest running back contracts that have recently been handed out. As Corry points out, the average salary of the five highest-paid running backs is south of $11MM per season. The agent also notes that Falcons running back Devonta Freeman‘s $8.25MM average salary is the current benchmark for the position. The Cardinals also have the ability to capitalize on the franchise tag, which would pay Johnson $11.9MM in 2019.

After finishing with 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns during the 2016 season, Johnson proved that he was a foundational piece for the Cardinals. However, while both sides would presumably like to agree on a long-term contract, there’s also incentive for both sides to wait. Therefore, we shouldn’t be all that surprised if the organization and Johnson engage in a staring match for the foreseeable future.

Poll: Who Will Be The First Coach To Get Fired This Season?

It’s a new year for every coach in the NFL, but not every coach will survive the year. Already, there’s speculation about which coaches could be on the hot seat in 2018. Some coaches with shaky job security may include:

  • Hue Jackson, Browns: Jackson is the oddsmaker’s favorite to lose his job first. After compiling a 1-31 record in his two seasons at the helm in Cleveland, it’s hard to argue with the professionals. Jackson certainly has more talent to work with thanks to the arrivals of running back Carlos Hyde, wide receiver Jarvis Landry, and a vastly improved secondary, but along with that comes raised expectations. When also considering that Jackson is a holdover from the previous regime and not necessarily the preferred choice of new GM John Dorsey, it’s quite possible that Jackson could be ousted with another bad start.
  • Adam Gase, Dolphins: When Gase was hired in 2016, he was the league’s youngest head coach at the age of 38. He earned a playoff appearance in his first year on the sidelines, but last year turned ugly after quarterback Ryan Tannehill was lost for the season and replaced by Jay Cutler. Tannehill’s return should help matters, but it’s fair to wonder whether this team has improved much at all after losing Ndamukong Suh on the other side of the ball. The Dolphins’ early schedule may also hurt Gase as they open against the Titans, Jets, Raiders, and Patriots. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dolphins split those games, like they did in 2017, but it’s also conceivable that they could open the year 0-4. As you can probably guess, an 0-4 start is historically difficult to climb out from. Of the 117 teams that have started 0-4 in the 16-game era, the ’92 Chargers are the ones to have reached the postseason with with an 11-win campaign. The 2004 Bills and the 2017 Chargers both rallied to win nine games, but neither club reached the playoffs.
  • Marvin Lewis, Bengals: The Lewis saga took some weird twists and turns last season. In the midst of a second-straight season without a playoff appearance, there was speculation about Lewis’ job security. Then, in December, we started hearing rumblings that Lewis might leave the Bengals to pursue opportunities elsewhere. Ultimately, Lewis was signed to a two-year extension to, theoretically, keep him under contract for his 16th and 17th seasons in Cincinnati. Lewis has avoided lame duck status for 2018, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll survive the year if the Bengals falter.
  • Vance Joseph, Broncos: Joseph was nearly axed after the 2017 season before John Elway ultimately decided to retain him. The Broncos’ defense is still jam-packed with talent and they have a capable quarterback in Case Keenum, so anything short of a playoff appearance will be a disappointment in Denver. This will be Joseph’s second season at the helm in Denver, but it’s clear that he is under pressure it win.
  • Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers: Koetter was already believed to be on the hot seat but he was placed squarely behind the 8-ball last week when quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended for the first three games of the season. Even if the Bucs come out of September unscathed, they’ll be up against an overall schedule that is the fourth-toughest in the NFL, based on the combined win percentage of opponents in 2017.

The list goes on from there. Jay Gruden (Redskins), Todd Bowles (Jets), Bill O’Brien (Texans), Jason Garrett (Cowboys), John Harbaugh (Ravens), and Ron Rivera (Panthers) could also be in varying degrees of jeopardy with disappointing seasons. We’d be surprised to see a quick hook for Garrett, Harbaugh, or Rivera no matter what happens, but you may feel differently.

Click below to make your pick for who will be the first to get the axe. Then, you can head to the comment section to back up your choice.

Which NFL Head Coach Will Be The First To Get Fired In 2018?
Hue Jackson 24.19% (521 votes)
Dirk Koetter 15.60% (336 votes)
Vance Joseph 10.63% (229 votes)
Marvin Lewis 9.52% (205 votes)
Adam Gase 9.10% (196 votes)
Jason Garrett 7.99% (172 votes)
John Harbaugh 6.87% (148 votes)
Jay Gruden 6.41% (138 votes)
Todd Bowles 4.64% (100 votes)
Bill O'Brien 2.41% (52 votes)
Ron Rivera 1.35% (29 votes)
Other (specify coach in comments) 1.30% (28 votes)
Total Votes: 2,154

[RELATED: The Average Age Of NFL Head Coaches In 2018]

The Average Age Of NFL Head Coaches In 2018

This year, seven NFL teams made head coaching changes. As a whole, the moves continued the NFL’s trend of moving in a younger direction. 

Here is the age of every NFL’s head coach, ordered from youngest to oldest at the start of Week 1 of the 2018 season:

  • Sean McVay, Rams – 32
  • Kyle Shanahan, 49ers – 38
  • Matt Nagy, Bears – 40
  • Adam Gase, Dolphins – 40
  • Mike Vrabel, Titans – 43
  • Matt Patricia, Lions – 43 (Note: Patricia turns 44 just days after the Lions’ season opener.)
  • Sean McDermott, Bills – 44
  • Vance Joseph, Broncos – 45
  • Mike Tomlin, Steelers – 46
  • Dan Quinn, Falcons – 47 (Note: Quinn turns 48 just days after the Falcons’ season opener.)
  • Bill O’Brien, Texans – 48
  • Anthony Lynn, Chargers – 49
  • Steve Wilks, Cardinals – 49
  • Doug Pederson, Eagles – 50
  • Jay Gruden, Redskins – 51
  • Jason Garrett, Cowboys – 52
  • Hue Jackson, Browns – 52
  • Pat Shurmur, Giants – 53
  • Doug Marrone, Jaguars – 54
  • Sean Payton, Saints – 54
  • Todd Bowles, Jets – 54
  • Mike McCarthy, Packers – 54
  • Jon Gruden, Raiders – 55
  • John Harbaugh, Ravens – 55
  • Ron Rivera, Panthers – 56
  • Frank Reich, Colts – 56
  • Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers – 59
  • Marvin Lewis, Bengals – 59
  • Andy Reid, Chiefs – 60
  • Mike Zimmer, Vikings – 62
  • Bill Belichick, Patriots – 66
  • Pete Carroll, Seahawks – 66 (Note: Carroll turns 67 just days after the Seahawks’ season opener.)

Just two years ago, Adam Gase was the league’s youngest head coach at the age of 38. That’s still young by NFL head coaching standards, but 38-year-old Kyle Shanahan is a ways behind Sean McVay of the Rams, who is the youngest head coach in the NFL.

The NFL’s oldest head coach is Pete Carroll, who was born about eight months before Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.

Using Week 1 as our starting point, the average age of NFL head coaches in 2018 is 51 years old. That shows a significant dip from 2016, when the average age of head coaches was 53.4 and 2017, when the average age was 52.5.

Could the average of NFL head coaches dip even further in 2019? It’s certainly possible with coaches over the average age on the hot seat including Hue JacksonDirk Koetter, Jay Gruden, John Harbaugh, and Todd Bowles.

This Date In Transactions History: NFL Suspends Gates, McClain, Richardson

The days leading up to the Fourth of July aren’t necessarily a hotbed of activity in the NFL. But, sometimes, the league office will use the cover of the holiday weekend to drop some unfavorable news. That’s what the NFL did on July 2, 2015 when it announced the suspensions of three notable players. 

Three years ago today, the league announced suspensions for Chargers tight end Antonio Gates, Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson, and Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain. All three players were banned for the first four games of the season – Gates for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy and McClain and Richardson for substance abuse policy violations.

Gates issued a statement soon after the suspension came down, saying that he tested positive for a substance that he was unaware was on the league’s banned list. At the time, it felt like the ban could signal the end of the Gates era in San Diego and the beginning of the Ladarius Green era. Green had flashed his immense physical tools in the past, but was buried behind Gates on the tight end depth chart. Green was productive in Gates’ absence, but Gates came storming back when he took the field and finished ahead of Green in all major statistical categories. In the following year, Green went on to sign an ill-fated contract with the Steelers and Gates remained as the team’s primary tight end.

Richardson’s suspension, meanwhile, probably hurt his standing with his team. Richardson’s suspension gave rookie Leonard Williams a chance to shine and further reinforced the perception of him as a bad teammate. The former first-round pick turned in the worst season of his career to date and lost upwards of $600K in salary and bonus money as a result of the suspension. The Jets tried hard to trade Richardson throughout the 2016 season, but could not find any takers. Then, just before the start of the ’17 campaign, they shipped him to the Seahawks for wide receiver Jermaine Kearse and a second-round pick.

McClain’s suspension was the result of violating the league’s substance abuse policy for a fourth time in his NFL career. In a statement, McClain vowed that he would “not break the rules of [his] profession in the future.” Unfortunately, he was unable to keep that promise. In 2016, McClain was suspended for substance abuse yet again, this time for ten games. He later failed another drug test midway through the season, and the NFL slapped him with an indefinite suspension. McClain has reportedly battled an addiction to “purple drank” (a mixture of codeine-based cold medication and soda) and there has been no word of a potential comeback in some time.