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PFR Originals News & Rumors

PFR Originals: 6/24/18 – 7/1/18

July 1st, 2018 at 3:06pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff over the past week:

Extension Candidate: C.J. Mosley

July 1st, 2018 at 10:37am CST by Rory Parks

Ravens linebacker C.J. Mosley, unlike some of his fellow 2014 first-round draftees eyeing a new deal, has not held out of spring practices and has no intentions of holding out of training camp. He has previously indicated that he wants to be a Raven for life and to be remembered as the second-greatest linebacker in team history (behind Ray Lewis, who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in August).

Although it is difficult to fault any player in today’s NFL for holding out in an effort to land a mega payday, Mosley’s decision to remain with the team regardless of his contract situation is emblematic of the type of leadership that makes him such a prized commodity in Baltimore. His play, of course, also speaks volumes. The Alabama product has been named to three Pro Bowls in his four-year career and has earned a reputation as something of a playmaker, as he has posted eight interceptions and eight sacks during that timeframe. Those eight interceptions rank second among linebackers over the past four years (behind Luke Kuechly‘s nine), and Mosley ranks fifth in tackles (489) and fifth in solo tackles (313) among all defensive players from 2014-17.

Perhaps just as importantly, he has been durable, having missed only two games to date. On the other hand, he can struggle in pass coverage, and while he is a very good all-around player, he is not a generational talent that makes a lucrative extension an easy call for the Ravens.

The Texans’ Benardrick McKinney recently landed a five-year, $50MM deal (with $21MM guaranteed), and the Vikings gave Eric Kendricks a similar deal in April. Mosley has a case to top both of those players, neither of whom have been selected to a Pro Bowl, and it would not be far-fetched to see him approaching or besting Kuechly’s five-year, $61MM ($27MM guaranteed) pact, which currently paces the market for inside linebackers.

But the Ravens do have a history of drafting quality ILBs, and given that Mosley is generally not the kind of game-changing player that Kuechly is, one would think Baltimore could move on and use that money elsewhere. But the Ravens typically take care of their homegrown talent, and considering Mosley’s abilities and leadership qualities, the guess here is that he and the team will come to terms on an extension that will give him around $25MM in guarantees and that averages around $11MM per year.

Poll: Will Steelers Extend Le’Veon Bell?

June 30th, 2018 at 4:25pm CST by Sam Robinson

As could be expected given the events of the past 1 1/2 years, the Le’Veon Bell/Steelers saga is coming down to the wire. By July 16, Steelers fans will almost certainly know if the two-time All-Pro running back will be a long-term Pittsburgh resident.

Thus far, the signs haven’t been especially promising. Although Bell is optimistic about an extension being finalized, Pittsburgh-based reporters are skeptical about the team committing at the rate Bell seeks. Devonta Freeman‘s $8.25MM-per-year deal represents the current ceiling for long-term running back pacts, but Bell could be angling for $17MM annually in what would be an unbelievable markup for this position. He also might merely want something north of his new franchise tag number ($14.5MM), which would still double as a seismic increase for this job compared to the top rates of the recent past.

The Steelers appeared closer to reaching the finish line with Bell last summer, when they reportedly offered him a deal that would have paid him $42.5MM in its first three years and $30MM across the first two. Bell will be collecting just more than $26MM on his two-franchise tag arrangement between the 2017 and ’18 seasons. The 26-year-old ball-carrier, though, said the Steelers’ top 2017 offer was for $13.3MM per year for the life of the contract. While that still would have represented a seismic raise for the running back market, and was a $1.1MM AAV increase from Bell’s 2017 franchise tag rate, Bell wanted his contract to reflect his contributions as a receiver as well.

Bell then caught a career-high 85 passes — his second 80-reception season — and stayed healthy throughout a dominant slate that doubled as the Steelers’ best since their 2010 AFC championship campaign. But he also added a career-high 406 touches to his odometer. The Steelers have used him as an old-school workhorse. Despite that helping Bell’s statistics, his usage rate may be hurting his long-term value.

Although Kevin Colbert expressed optimism back in March the Steelers would extend Bell, it’s possible that given the way these talks have progressed the team views him as a high-end short-term rental rather than someone who will still be an elite player into his late 20s or early 30s.

However, the Steelers don’t have a ready-made Bell replacement lined up. That would be unrealistic, since the former second-round pick’s been one of the best backs of the decade. But would it be better for a team that’s struggled on defense for years to let Bell walk in 2019 and devote most of that money to helping its weaker unit? Or is Bell essential to Pittsburgh keeping its Super Bowl title window open?

The Steelers may well be the Patriots’ top threat in the AFC, but might this be the last season where Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Bell are teammates? Bell and the Steelers not agreeing to an extension by the July deadline would put the running back on a Kirk Cousins path, with a 2019 tag number exceeding an untenable $20MM, and make Cousins’ former Michigan State teammate a unique free agent just as he was this year. Or, will Bell back down from his lofty price point and lock in some multiyear guarantees while he’s still in his mid-20s?

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Will Steelers and Le'Veon Bell agree to extension by July 16?
No 73.58% (440 votes)
Yes 26.42% (158 votes)
Total Votes: 598

This Date In Transactions History: Rolando McClain

June 30th, 2018 at 9:11am CST by Ben Levine

When linebacker Rolando McClain was handed a 10-game suspension on this date in 2016, it was assumed he’d be back for the Cowboys’ late-season run. However, two years later, it’s uncertain if the 28-year-old will ever play in the NFL again.

The 2010 first-round pick had three productive seasons with the Raiders, although it was accompanied by its fair share of controversy. In 2012, he was booted from team practices after several incidents, and McClain subsequently took to Facebook to complain about the organization, going as far as to say that he wanted “to be anywhere besides here.” He was released by the team the next offseason before briefly catching on with the Ravens. However, less than a month after signing with Baltimore, McClain suddenly announced his retirement.

The Cowboys then took a bit of a risk trading for the linebacker in 2014, despite the fact that McClain had sat out the previous season. It ended up paying off for Dallas, as the linebacker would go on to appear in 13 games for his new team, compiling 81 tackles, one sack, and one forced fumble. He earned his first suspension from the NFL the following offseason, limiting him to only 11 games in 2015, although he still collected 80 tackles and a pair of sacks.

After signing another one-year deal with the Cowboys during the 2016 offseason, McClain was handed the 10-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He then failed another drug test midway through the season, and the NFL slapped him with an indefinite suspension. Following his third ban in two years, it doesn’t sound like McClain will be making a return anytime soon. Since he was suspended indefinitely, we’ve only heard one bit of news about McClain: a 2017 arrest for firearm and drug charges.

Two years ago today, the Cowboys were surely disappointed hearing about McClain’s suspension. However, it’s unlikely they would have thought that he’d be out of the NFL two years later.

Poll: Which NFL Team Won The Draft?

June 29th, 2018 at 11:21am CST by Zachary Links

Can you fairly evaluate a team’s draft haul before the rookies have even played their first NFL game? Well, no, not really. But we’re going to do it anyway because it’s a fun exercise.

Below, you’ll have the opportunity to select the team that you feel had the best overall draft. First, here are a handful of clubs you may want to consider:

Bears – The Bears addressed three serious needs with their top three picks. They began their draft by selecting inside linebacker Roquan Smith, who was viewed as one of the safest top talents in the draft despite his lack of ideal size for the position. They followed that up by taking Iowa’s James Daniels in the second round, a player with the ability to play all three spots on the interior offensive line. In the third round, they gave Mitchell Trubisky another weapon to work with in Memphis receiver Anthony Miller.

Broncos – Few could find fault with the Broncos’ first pick, defensive end Bradley Chubb. The hits kept on coming for GM John Elway & Co. as they added quality wide receivers Courtland Sutton (second round) and DaeSean Hamilton (fourth round) as well as bruising running back Royce Freeman (third round). The Broncos didn’t draft their quarterback of the future, but they picked up pieces that can contribute right away on both sides of the ball.

Bucs – With a draft class headlined by defensive tackle Vita Vea and running back Ronald Jones, Bucs fans have a lot to be excited about. It’s fair to question the wisdom of taking Vea after signing Beau Allen to a three-year, $15MM deal, but it’s hard to knock what they did here in total. The Bucs acquired two second round picks to move down from No. 7 to No. 12, where they selected the Polynesian phenom. The No. 53 pick from Buffalo became defensive back M.J. Stewart and they turned the No. 56 overall choice into a pair of worthwhile secondary players.

Giants – Your take on the Giants’ draft class may be swayed by your thoughts on taking a running back with the No. 2 overall pick. Still, it’s hard to find fault with Saquon Barkley‘s talent and none of this year’s top quarterbacks profile as slam dunks. At No. 34 overall, they selected guard Will Hernandez, who should help to open up running lanes for Barkley. With the next two picks, Dave Gettleman provided new defensive coordinator James Bettcher with front seven support by grabbing Lorenzo Carter and B.J. Hill. Not bad for Gettleman’s first draft as the Giants’ football czar.

Packers – The Packers also have a new GM at the helm who did a solid job in the draft. The Packers were in desperate need of help at cornerback and they landed two – Louisville’s Jaire Alexander and Iowa’s Josh Jackson – with their first two selections. There were other intriguing picks in the Packers’ 11-man draft class, including linebacker Oren Burks (third round) and a group of wide receivers (J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown) that could help fill the void left by Jordy Nelson‘s departure.

Patriots – This year, the Patriots made eight draft day trades, the most in franchise history. That’s not including all of their pre-draft maneuvering, either. Ultimately, they fortified next year’s crop of picks while also fortifying their roster for this year’s championship run. Instead of reaching for Tom Brady‘s heir, they used their late-first round draft picks on tackle Isaiah Wynn and running back Sony Michel. With those selections, the Pats eased the hurt of losing Nate Solder and Dion Lewis in free agency. There’s also a lot to like about slot corner Duke Dawson and sixth-round wide receiver Braxton Berrios has the potential to become an effective slot weapon for the Pats on offense.

If you need a refresher on this year’s draft, check out PFR’s complete list of picks by team. After that, you can cast your vote below and back up your choice in the comment section.

Who Won The Draft?
Bears 9.48% (147 votes)
Packers 9.23% (143 votes)
Browns 8.71% (135 votes)
Giants 8.00% (124 votes)
Broncos 6.19% (96 votes)
Cowboys 5.74% (89 votes)
Bills 3.87% (60 votes)
Patriots 3.81% (59 votes)
Ravens 3.48% (54 votes)
Jets 3.42% (53 votes)
49ers 3.35% (52 votes)
Colts 3.03% (47 votes)
Raiders 2.84% (44 votes)
Vikings 2.84% (44 votes)
Dolphins 2.52% (39 votes)
Bengals 2.32% (36 votes)
Seahawks 2.32% (36 votes)
Cardinals 2.13% (33 votes)
Redskins 2.06% (32 votes)
Steelers 2.00% (31 votes)
Buccaneers 1.68% (26 votes)
Eagles 1.55% (24 votes)
Chargers 1.42% (22 votes)
Titans 1.42% (22 votes)
Falcons 1.16% (18 votes)
Lions 1.10% (17 votes)
Chiefs 0.90% (14 votes)
Texans 0.84% (13 votes)
Panthers 0.71% (11 votes)
Rams 0.71% (11 votes)
Saints 0.71% (11 votes)
Jaguars 0.45% (7 votes)
Total Votes: 1,550

This Date In Transactions History: Andrew Luck

June 29th, 2018 at 10:13am CST by Zachary Links

On this date two years ago, the Colts made Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in NFL history. Two years later, it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the deal will pay off. 

[RELATED: Latest On Andrew Luck]

The Colts inked Luck to a five-year extension worth a whopping $122MM, with $87MM in overall guarantees and $47MM fully guaranteed at signing. Without the deal, Luck would have been eligible for free agency following the ’16 season. From there, the Colts could have retained Luck for an additional two seasons via the franchise tag at estimated values of $25MM and $35MM, but it would have put them in a difficult position down the road. Instead, both sides used Luck’s expected franchise tags amounts as a framework for talks and hammered out a deal.

With the contract, Luck leapfrogged Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers in average annual value. The deal made sense, but it did not come without risk. Luck was coming off of an injury-riddled, seven-game season in which he completed just 55.3% of his passes and logged 15 touchdowns against 12 interceptions.

Luck’s shoulder was largely a non-issue in 2016 as he threw for 4,240 yards and 31 touchdowns with a career-high 63.5 completion percentage. After the season, he went under the knife to fix his shoulder, and that’s where things started to get messy. First, Luck was held out of training camp and the preseason. Then, he was ruled out for week after week in the regular season. Finally, in November, the Colts were forced to place Luck on season-ending IR.

Luck finally was able to throw a regulation-sized football earlier this month, but questions remain about how effective Luck can be going forward. When healthy, Luck is one of the league’s best QBs and he has three Pro Bowl nods to back that up. Still, no one knows if his shoulder can withstand the punishment of a full season. The Colts will be married to the former No. 1 overall pick for a while, regardless of how things turn out.

Already, Luck’s $12MM base salary for 2018 and $6MM of his 2019 salary have become fully guaranteed. If the Colts want to push the eject button in 2019, it’ll leave them with $12.8MM in dead money versus $14.725MM in cap savings. Their first chance to move on from Luck with an impactful effect on the cap will come in 2020, when they can save $22MM by cutting him with just $6.5MM in dead money remaining.

The Colts and Luck are hoping that it won’t come to that. If Luck gets back to his old form this year, the mega deal he signed in 2016 will once again look worthwhile, and maybe even team-friendly.

Poll: Which New Head Coach Will Experience Most 2018 Success?

June 28th, 2018 at 6:32pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Coaching staff turnover was abundant this offseason, but most of that change occurred at the assistant level: while there were 33 instances of alteration among offensive and defensive coordinators, only seven new head coaches will be leading teams in 2018, a number that fits in nicely with yearly averages. Naturally, these seven new HCs are taking over clubs that are in something of a rebuild phase, as the Titans are the only team that made the postseason in 2017 before opting to make a coaching change at the top.

With that in mind, we’d like to ask PFR readers which new head coach will experience the most success during the upcoming campaign? While we aren’t solely asking about record (the Bears could stage a turnaround in 2018 and still not make the playoffs given their starting point and the strength of the NFC North, for one example), we’re looking mostly at wins and losses.

Here’s a refresher on the NFL’s new head coaches:

In the NFC, Wilks will be not only tasked with re-forming a defense that’s moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme, but deciding if and when to insert rookie quarterback Josh Rosen over free agent acquisition Sam Bradford. Nagy, meanwhile, has the benefit of leaning on veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on one side of the ball, but he’s installing an all-new offensive system with weapons such as Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton. Patricia takes over a relatively stable roster in Detroit, but he’s looking up at the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North, while Shurmur will be asked to wring at least one more productive season out of 37-year-old signal-caller Eli Manning.

Moving to the AFC, Reich is the new lead man in Indianapolis after Josh McDaniels spurned the Colts; with a barren 53-man roster, Reich will need Andrew Luck at something close to full health. Gruden landed a $100MM contract to return to the NFL and Oakland, but after an offseason which saw the Raiders’ roster get older, it’s anyone’s guess if the Black and Silver can compete with Kansas City and Los Angeles in the AFC West. Vrabel takes over an already-contending Titans club after just one season as a defensive coordinator, but his addition of coordinators Matt LaFleur (offense) and Dean Pees (defense) drew considerable praise.

So, who do you like? Which of these coaches will post the most successful season in 2018?

Poll: Which New Head Coach Will Experience Most 2018 Success?
Jon Gruden (Raiders) 24.62% (551 votes)
Matt Nagy (Bears) 20.38% (456 votes)
Pat Shurmur (New York Giants) 16.85% (377 votes)
Matt Patricia (Lions) 13.63% (305 votes)
Mike Vrabel (Titans) 12.02% (269 votes)
Frank Reich (Indianapolis Colts) 8.45% (189 votes)
Steve Wilks (Cardinals) 4.07% (91 votes)
Total Votes: 2,238

This Date In Transactions History: Ed Reed

June 28th, 2018 at 8:20am CST by Zachary Links

In his prime, few players were more fearsome than safety Ed Reed. On this date in 2006, the Ravens rewarded Reed with a six-year, $40MM contract, making him the highest-paid player at his position in league history. 

The previous league-leading deal for safeties belonged to Adam Archuleta, who inked a six-year, $30MM deal with the Redskins in March of ’06. Reed blew past him on a rocket ship, and for good reason.

Reed became a starter as a rookie in 2002 and quickly cemented himself as a key cog in Baltimore’s defense. He notched 21 interceptions in his first three seasons and led the league with nine picks in 2004. Although he was held back by an ankle injury in 2005, the Ravens saw a Reed as a multiple-time Pro Bowler who was ready to get back to his old form.

“It was his time,” GM Ozzie Newsome said. “He has earned the contract.”

Indeed, the Ravens were right. Reed came back in a big way in ’06 as he started in every game and tallied five picks, plus two in the postseason. He earned Pro Bowl nods in every season from 2006 through 2012 and picked up four First-Team All-Pro nods in that span.

Reed earned his first ring in the Super Bowl following the 2012 season and notched his ninth career postseason interception in the big game. Although he was still productive, Reed and the Ravens went their separate ways in the offseason. Reed signed a three-year, $15MM deal with the Texans, but that deal was terminated midway through the ’13 campaign. He reunited with Rex Ryan by signing with the Jets, but he was unable to turn back the clock. After sitting out the 2014 season, Reed signed a one-day contract with Baltimore so that he could retire a Raven.

Reed’s final season on the field was forgettable, but the extension he signed with the Ravens in 2006 proved to be a win-win for both sides. Reed cashed in and gained financial security in a violent sport, and the Ravens got elite level production out of him for the majority of the deal.

Extension Candidate: Anthony Barr

June 27th, 2018 at 8:36pm CST by Ben Levine

Over the past two offseasons, the Vikings have signed a number of their defensive players to extensions: cornerback Xavier Rhodes, defensive end Everson Griffen, defensive tackle Linval Joseph, and (most recently) defensive end Danielle Hunter. That leaves linebacker Anthony Barr as the one defender who’s yet to sign a new deal.

Barr, a 2014 first-round pick, is heading into his fifth-year option season, and he’ll earn a $12.3MM base salary. Plenty of teams would line up to sign the three-time Pro Bowler should he hit free agency next year, especially if he has another season like he did in 2017. The 26-year-old finished the year having compiled a career-high 75 tackles to go along with one sack and six passes defended.

It sounds like the Vikings are going to now shift their focus to locking up Barr (and wideout Stefon Diggs), with general manager Rick Spielman indicating today that he wants to retain their entire core. While recent reports had hinted that contract negotiations were progressing, Barr didn’t sound as optimistic earlier this week. The linebacker said an extension was “more about feeling valued and respected than the actual dollar amount.” He also noted that while he wants “to be there long term… It’s not my decision; it’s on them, and I would like to get it.” Barr had already skipped out on non-mandatory workouts, perhaps showcasing his unhappiness with the situation.

While Barr is surely frustrated with the fact that his teammates have received lucrative extensions, he’s probably also aggravated at the team’s disappearing cap space. Ben Goessling of the Star Tribune estimates that the Vikings will have around $27MM in cap space in 2019. While that’s still enough space to sign Barr, they might have a tough time signing him if he’s looking to become one of the highest-paid linebackers. While it’s unlikely that he’ll receive a deal that’s more than the $12MM annual salary he’s set to earn this year, an $11MM annual salary would still place him in the top-5 among 4.3 outside linebackers. Considering the team’s cap constraints, this would likely be the most money they’d be willing to offer.

Fortunately for the Vikings, their defense will be fine with or without Barr. In fact, their decision to hold off on the linebacker’s extension could be an indication of his standing within the organization. While a deal is still expected to get done, it wouldn’t be overly surprising if Barr ends up hitting free agency next summer.

This Date In Transactions History: Desmond Bishop

June 27th, 2018 at 6:59pm CST by Ben Levine

Five years ago today, the Vikings added what they presumed would be their new starting linebacker. Unfortunately, the veteran’s injury woes continued during his brief tenure in Minnesota.

On June 27th, 2013, the Vikings signed linebacker Desmond Bishop to a one-year contract. The 2007 sixth-round pick out of California had spent his entire career with the division-rival Packers, and he proved to be a revelation in Green Bay. After serving as mostly a backup during his first three seasons in the league, Bishop had a breakout campaign in 2010, finishing with 99 tackles (which was more than his previous three seasons combined). He also had a fumble recovery in his team’s Super Bowl XLV win over the Steelers.

His breakout campaign earned him a four-year, $19MM extension, and Bishop followed that up with an even better season in 2011. He ultimately established career-highs with 115 tackles, five sacks, and two forced fumbles. Unfortunately, Bishop suffered a significant hamstring injury during the 2012 preseason, forcing him to miss the entire campaign. He ended up being released by the team prior to training camp in 2013.

After having visited the Chiefs and Vikings, Bishop ultimately decided to join Minnesota. While he was projected to slide into the team’s starting lineup, he lost the gig early on during the 2013 season. Then, in mid-October, the linebacker tore his ACL, ending his season. During his one year in Minnesota, Bishop compiled only five tackles in four games (one start). He’d later have brief stints with the Cardinals, 49ers, and Redskins.

Following a 2012 campaign that saw them go 10-6, the Vikings were probably hoping that Bishop would provide them with a veteran presence on defense (they even released former fourth-rounder Stanford Keglar to make the necessary roster space). Fortunately for Minnesota, they didn’t lock themselves into a long-term deal with the linebacker.

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