PFR Originals - Pro Football Rumors

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Atlanta Falcons

By Dallas Robinson | at February 21, 2018 7:48 pm

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Atlanta Falcons, who finished with a 10-6 record before being bounced in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Ricardo Allen, S (RFA)
Matt Bryant, K
Adrian Clayborn, DE
Derrick Coleman, FB
Taylor Gabriel, WR
Ben Garland, OL (RFA)
Kemal Ishmael, S
Leon McFadden, CB
Sharrod Neasman, S (ERFA)
Austin Pasztor, T
Dontari Poe, DT
LaRoy Reynolds, LB
Andre Roberts, WR
Ahtyba Rubin, DT
Jordan Tripp, LB
Courtney Upshaw, DE
Terron Ward, RB (RFA)
Sean Weatherspoon, LB
Nick Williams, WR (RFA)
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Matt Ryan, QB: $21,650,000
Julio Jones, WR: $12,900,000
Desmond Trufant, CB: $12,900,000
Jake Matthews, T: $12,496,000
Alex Mack, C: $11,050,000
Robert Alford, CB: $9,600,000
Andy Levitre, G: $8,375,000
Mohamed Sanu, WR: $7,400,000
Ryan Schraeder, T: $6,500,000
Derrick Shelby, DE: $5,750,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $12,035,622
26th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DE Vic Beasley

Three Needs:

1) Bring in at least one starting guard: The problem with boasting a solid core on both sides of the ball is that cap space gets eaten up quickly. The Falcons project to only have ~$12MM in available salary cap room this offseason, and even if the club makes a few predictable cuts, it’s difficult to see their funds rising much above $20MM. But with the small amount of cap space that Atlanta does possess, it should target a clear upgrade on the interior of its offensive line.

The Falcons could potentially need two new guards to play alongside All-Pro center Alex Mack, depending on what they do with incumbent left guard Andy Levitre. Acquired from the Titans prior to the 2015 season, Levitre has been a solid starter in Atlanta, but he’s coming off a relatively down campaign that ended with a trip to injured reserve. The Falcons can create $7MM in cap savings by releasing Levitre this offseason, but they could also approach the 31-year-old about a contract restructure that reduces his cap charge and keeps him on the roster.

At right guard, 2016 sixth-round pick Wes Schweitzer played nearly offensive snap for the Falcons, but graded as just the No. 54 guard among 77 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus, which assigned Schweitzer poor marks in both the run and pass game. The majority of writers at The Falcoholic — SB Nation’s excellent Falcons blog — don’t believe Schweitzer will return as a starting guard in 2018, but Atlanta does have other possible solutions on its roster. 2017 fourth-rounder Sean Harlow could be in for an increased role, as could Ty Sambrailo, whom the Falcons acquired from the Broncos last September.

While Atlanta would surely love to poach Andrew Norwell from the division rival Panthers, the club won’t be able to afford a guard that is expected to reset the positional market. However, given that the Falcons are certainly in win-now mode, the perfect guard fit may have just become available: Josh Sitton will now become a free agent when the market opens on March 14 after the Bears declined his $8MM option for 2018. Sitton will be 32 years old when next season gets underway, but that shouldn’t scare Atlanta, which is squarely in its contention window and won’t be adverse to inking a veteran player to a multi-year deal. A two-year, backloaded pact that allows Sitton to collect that $8MM he won’t be earning from Chicago could make sense for both sides.

If Sitton lands elsewhere, the Falcons should still have their pick of veteran guards, and the sheer volume of available experienced players at the position could potentially reduce prices overall. The Saints’ Senio Kelemete has proven himself all over the offensive line, and would offer Atlanta positional versatility at positions beyond guard. Zach Fulton (Chiefs) is only 26 years old and offers 46 starts worth of experience. Alex Boone, Spencer Long, Matt Slauson, Brandon Fusco, Jahri Evans, Josh Kline…the Falcons’ primary weakness has a ton of free agent panaceas, so the club shouldn’t struggle to find a resolution.

A draft selection is also on the table for the Falcons, but keep in mind that general manager Thomas Dimitroff has only selected one interior offensive linemen — Peter Konz in 2012 — prior to the third round. Atlanta either doesn’t value the guard position very highly, or believes it can find competent options later in the draft. Perhaps the Falcons take a shot on Texas’ Connor Williams (who many teams are viewing as a guard) if he slips to the bottom of the first round, but they’ll probably look to find a mid-round gem instead. Wyatt Teller (Virginia Tech), Sean Welsh (Iowa), and Skyler Phillips (Idaho State) are among the collegiate players who could be available at the beginning of Day 3, per Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com.

2) Reorganize the defensive line: Only eight 4-3 defensive tackles saw at least 70% playtime in 2017, and the Falcons boasted two of them in Grady Jarrett and Dontari Poe. Jarrett is one of the better interior defenders in the NFL and is now eligible for an extension, but Poe is scheduled to hit free agency in March. While Atlanta could pursue an extension with Poe in the coming weeks, it might be worthwhile to allow the 27-year-old to reach the open market and assess his value before re-opening talks.

Poe was one of the top defensive tackles available in 2017, but even after garnering interest from multiple clubs around the league, he was forced to settle for a one-year, $8MM deal. Now that he’s now a year older and has nearly 800 more snaps worth of wear, will teams now be willing to commit to Poe for the long term? Poe will likely be targeting something in the Johnathan Hankins range (three years, $27MM, with $10MM in guarantees), but it’s possible he’s not able to reach that payday. The Falcons should hold off on re-signing Poe in the hopes that his price comes down as a result of a weak market.

If Poe is not retained, Atlanta will likely use an early round draft pick on a new defensive tackle. Josh Norris of Rotoworld and Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com had the same idea in their most recent mock drafts, as both sent Florida’s Taven Bryan to the Falcons at pick No. 26. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com provides the best prospect profiles around, and he says the 6″4, 290-pound Bryan “flashes disruptive potential that is waiting to be fully cultivated” but notes the ex-Gator’s “below-average power and contact balance.” The 2018 draft class offers a good number of interior options, so perhaps Vita Vea (Stanford), Da’Ron Payne (Alabama), Harrison Phillips (Stanford), or Maurice Hurst (Michigan) could fall to the end of the first round.Read more

The Falcons may dip into the free agent market if Poe gets away, but I wouldn’t expect them to offer any high-end contracts or sign any older players. Getting younger up front and keeping costs in order (especially with a Jarrett extension coming soon) should be the club’s top priorities. Interior defenders such as Justin Ellis, Beau Allen, Jay Bromley, and Dominique Easley are all age-27 or younger, and none should expect to land hefty deals this offseason, making them all fits for Atlanta. Meanwhile, Jaye Howard — who was an above-average lineman as recently as 2016 — could be an option given that he played under Falcons defensive line coach Bryant Young at Florida.

Atlanta should be mostly set on the edge, as Vic Beasley will move back to defensive end full-time to play opposite 2017 first-round pick Takkarist McKinley. However, the Falcons could choose to trim the fat by cutting pass rushers who haven’t lived up to their contracts. Jack Crawford‘s three-year deal never made much sense for Atlanta, and he should be released after suffering a torn biceps last season. With Beasley and McKinley both available, the Falcons may not run as much of a rotation as they did in 2017, so one of Brooks Reed or Derrick Shelby could also be sent packing in a move that would save at least $3MM.

It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Atlanta completely revamps its defensive end depth this spring by cutting Crawford, Reed, Shelby, and allowing Adrian Clayborn in free agency. If that happens, I’d expect the Falcons to target a young edge rusher in the draft while searching for a veteran during the free agent period. William Hayes stands out as a candidate to join the Atlanta roster, given his outstanding track record on run defense, his locker room leadership, and his likely low price tag. For some reason or other, Hayes has never been valued as an asset around the NFL (he was traded last year for a 16-spot drop in draft slots), meaning he shouldn’t cost much on the open market.

3) Secure Matt Ryan for the long haul: At $20.75MM, Matt Ryan‘s annual salary ranks just 14th in the NFL. As we all know, quarterback contracts are a game of musical chairs: whomever signs the most recent deal is likely to garner the largest paycheck. Luckily for Ryan, he has only one year left on his pact at a time when Jimmy Garoppolo and, in a few weeks, Kirk Cousins, will become the league’s highest-paid signal-callers. Ryan has a longer track record of success than either of those quarterbacks, and he’ll top both of their contracts when the time comes.

The Falcons, for their part, know a massive deal is just around the corner. At this time last year, team owner Arthur Blank admitted Ryan will likely need to be made the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback, and Dimitroff reiterated last month that a Ryan extension remains Atlanta’s primary focus. The only question, then, is timing: Do the Falcons wait until Drew Brees signs a new deal this offseason? Do they hold off until Aaron Rodgers inks an extension, perhaps in the coming months? Or do they bite the bullet and hand Ryan a new contract right now?

If Atlanta reaches an agreement in the near future, Ryan would likely reach the $28MM per year mark, but the veteran quarterback has every reason to wait and see what Cousins lands on the open market. Thus, I’d expect a Ryan extension to come this summer, after Cousins and Brees have signed. Rodgers’ contract status will come into play, but there should be every expectation that Ryan nears a $30MM annual salary with more than $50MM in guarantees. The guarantee figure, though, isn’t all that important, as quarterbacks of Ryan’s ilk almost never get released, and therefore, typically earn the entirety of their pact.

The Falcons’ lack of 2018 cap space will be another factor in any Ryan discussions. The 32-year-old Ryan is due a $19.25MM base salary in 2018, but Atlanta could roll that number into Ryan’s overall guarantee by converting most of that salary figure into a portion of his signing bonus. By giving Ryan a rather large signing bonus that will prorate on their salary cap, the Falcons should be able to keep their 2018 costs down while still retaining Ryan for the foreseeable future.

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Top 3 Offseason Needs: Cleveland Browns

By Sam Robinson | at February 20, 2018 8:23 pm

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Cleveland Browns, who have established the NFL futility standard by being just 1-31 over the past two seasons. There are many areas in need of upgrades for a franchise that went 0-16 last season, but one obviously dwarfs the rest.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Isaiah Crowell, RB
Josh Gordon, WR (ERFA)
Tank Carder, LB
Lavar Edwards, DE
Marcus Martin, LG
Jamie Meder, DT (RFA)
Josh Keyes, LB (RFA)
Bryce Treggs, WR
Chris Barker, G (ERFA)
Matt Hazel, WR (ERFA)
Austin Reiter, C (ERFA)
Kevin Hogan, QB (ERFA)
Dan Vitale, FB (ERFA)
B.W. Webb, CB

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Joe Thomas, T: $14,250,000
Kevin Zeitler, G: $12,400,000
Jamie Collins, LB: $12,400,000
Myles Garrett, DE: $6,911,876
J.C. Tretter, C: $6,250,000
Christian Kirksey, LB: $6,200,000
Joel Bitonio, G: $6,000,000
Jamar Taylor, CB: $5,275,000
Kenny Britt, WR: $4,875,000 (dead money)
Danny Shelton, DT: $3,723,895

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $110,849,880
First and fourth picks in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DT Danny Shelton

Three Needs:

1) End a complex QB search with a franchise player: Browns fans know the list of failed quarterback investments by now that there’s no point in rehashing them. But the Sashi Brown-era decisions to trade out of the Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson draft slots did not bode well for the organization. It has a chance to rectify those missteps in April, but the decision won’t be easy.

Unlike past years that featured No. 1-selecting teams making choices between two players — Jared Goff-over-Wentz (2016), Jameis Winston-over-Marcus Mariota (2015), Andrew Luck-over-Robert Griffin III (2012) — the Browns could possibly have four passers on their radar at No. 1. No draft has featured three QBs go in the top five since 1999, which is unique symmetry considering the Browns’ Tim Couch decision set their rebooted franchise on this course.

The Browns are expected to decide between Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield at No. 1. But the franchise is sending some mixed messages about its plans at American sports’ premier position.

Cleveland attempted to unload one of its three second-round picks for Alex Smith, who almost certainly would have been good enough to keep whomever the team selects at No. 1 on the bench throughout the 2018 season. Is that how a franchise that went 0-16 last season and 2-43 in its past 45 games should be operating? Now with A.J. McCarron on the UFA radar, might the Browns be considering him again after being willing to fork over two Day 2 picks for him at the trade deadline?

A bridge quarterback could make sense here. If the Browns go with ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr.’s choice and pick Allen, who is considered raw but a player potentially possessing the highest upside of the ’18 passer crop, they would probably need a veteran to take the snaps while the Wyoming prodigy learns. The same could be said for Darnold or Mayfield, with Rosen being viewed as the readiest pro prospect of this quartet. But the Browns approaching this QB market like they need a multiyear starter doesn’t seem logical.

The Browns’ insane amount of cap space would put them in position to outgun any Kirk Cousins suitor, but that doesn’t really make much sense given Cousins’ preferences and the team’s trajectory. Even a deal for McCarron, who could be viewed by some as a Cousins backup plan, may be too steep for this franchise’s purposes. If the Browns do go after a starter-level veteran as Hue Jackson has said he may want (possibly to increase his chances at keeping the HC job beyond next season?), it should be a player whose market did not meet expectations. Injury-risk Vikings Sam Bradford or Teddy Bridgewater come to mind here.

For their short-term mentor type, it would make sense for the Browns to target a veteran with experience but someone who doesn’t profile as a multiyear starter. It’s difficult to envision, barring an over-the-top offer, a starter-level UFA choosing the Browns over a comparable proposal from another team. But high-level backup types like Chase Daniel — a John Dorsey addition while he was in Kansas City and Smith’s backup for three years — or Matt Moore would make sense. An agreement with a nearing-retirement player like Ryan Fitzpatrick or a reunion with Josh McCown, would make more sense as a groomer for the No. 1 pick-to-be.

None of these options are as exciting as Cousins or even McCarron. But if the team is going to pick a quarterback at No. 1, over-investing here to help only the 2018 team seems short-sighted, as the 2017 Bears’ plan showed.

Since the sports media landscape has expanded significantly since the Couch/Donovan McNabb/Akili Smith trio went Nos. 1-3 in 1999, the next two-plus months should be flooded with headlines involving Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield. As of now, not much appears to be separating these passers, making the Browns’ decision all the more interesting. After misfiring on Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel, Cleveland will face pressure to get this one right.

Darnold’s been mentioned as a Browns pick, with Yahoo.com’s Charles Robinson reporting multiple evaluators believe it will be a Darnold-or-Mayfield decision by late April. The USC product left two college seasons on the table to leave but has been deemed a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick since his redshirt-freshman campaign. He’s viewed as a better athlete than Rosen but a player whose delivery might need some ironing out before becoming a starting professional passer.

Rosen may be the safest pick from a pure passing standpoint, but the outspoken former UCLA centerpiece hasn’t made a secret of the fact Cleveland might not be the best place for him. And his interviews and visits may be critical leading up to the draft. But the polished signal-caller would probably be the least likely of these quarterbacks to require a bridge passer, and with Jackson wanting to have such a setup in place, maybe the Browns do opt for one of the others over the outspoken signal-caller. However, the longtime offensive coach has been reportedly enamored with the ex-Bruin. Again, it’s too early in the process to make a prediction here.

A high-level personnel executive — one that said in early 2016 the Browns would be set for 15 years if they took Wentz — told cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot that Allen-to-Cleveland would be the most likely scenario unfolding. Allen has been compared to Wentz and Ben Roethlisberger, and the high-ceiling/possibly low-floor talent will obviously be a player to monitor here as the workout season commences.

Mayfield’s path may be the most interesting. The most accomplished college quarterback of this group, the Heisman Trophy winner has turned off some execs with his attitude and drawn Manziel comparisons from scouts and execs. He also is seen as more of a developmental player and one whose 6-foot stature could steer Dorsey and Jackson elsewhere.

But Dorsey also is believed to be a fan of Mayfield’s competitiveness, and recently hired Browns draft consultant Scot McCloughan — the former Redskins GM who also has a path toward a job in Cleveland — has been talking up Mayfield for months. McCloughan said Mayfield would be his No. 1 overall choice when asked, and with the ex-Washington exec having already known he was en route to this consulting role when he made this comment, that proves interesting. Mayfield already has a meeting scheduled with the Browns, who are expected to bring in all four QBs for pre-draft summits.

So, this will get interesting soon. And a Browns team that’s featured rampant dysfunction and a lack of continuity at key spots for years will have a new face of the franchise come OTAs.

2) Install talent in the secondary: Unless the Browns are convinced they can lure Cousins with a Godfather offer and reshape their supporting cast around him via free agency and the draft, which wouldn’t be too crazy of a strategy if this was just about any other team and not one with the Browns’ current reputation, quarterback shouldn’t be where this franchise allocates much of its free agent funds. However, free agents in the secondary should see some wild offers coming from the 216 area code.

The Browns do not have a long-term answer at cornerback. Jason McCourty did play well as a late-arriving SFA last season, but he’ll be 31 before this coming season begins. Help needs to arrive via free agency and the draft. Fortunately, this franchise has an unbelievable amount of resources it could use to restock this position.

Players like Trumaine Johnson, Malcolm Butler and Kyle Fuller should expect to field offers from the Browns — proposals that could place them on the Josh Norman/Richard Sherman/Patrick Peterson/Xavier Rhodes salary plane. The Browns have the luxury of not having to worry about overpaying players; they just need talent to help here.

Of these top-tier UFA corners, Johnson has the longest sample size of upper-echelon play. But at 28, he’s also the oldest of the group and will be going into his seventh season. Butler and Fuller are fifth-year players, and the former Patriots defender played like a high-end corner during the 2015 and ’16 seasons. He contributed the fourth-most pass breakups in both seasons. Butler’s best work came in 2016, inducing the Pats to place a first-round tender on him. He was benched for Super Bowl LII and had an uneven 2017, but there will be an immense market for the ex-UDFA’s services. And although other teams will be interested, none can outmuscle a Browns offer.

Fuller doesn’t have the multiyear sample size of success Johnson and Butler do, but the 2014 first-round pick — whose fifth-year option the Bears declined last year — did play well in his contract campaign. The Bears defender led the NFL with 17 pass breakups last season, one Pro Football Focus tabbed as a better year than Johnson or Butler enjoyed. But the 26-year-old Fuller, who missed all of 2016, will be the biggest risk of these players because of his only stellar play coming in a contract year. However, multiple NFL personnel men rank Fuller second in between Johnson and Butler among this year’s top UFA corner group. It’s not out of the question the Bears place their franchise tag on Fuller, however.

Other corners who are slated to hit the market include E.J. Gaines, Prince Amukamara, Aaron Colvin, Patrick Robinson and Vontae Davis. The Browns visited with Davis late last week.

Amukamara has been undervalued the past two offseasons, and Davis gave the Colts his best years. However, the Browns should be going after one of the top-level UFAs; they have no reason not to. But if Cleveland is opting to supplement one of them with a second-tier player or a slot defender — which Colvin, Robinson and Nickell Robey-Coleman are — that would a strategy worth considering.

The Browns have been linked to Saquon Barkley with their No. 4 overall pick, but if the Giants or Colts — both running back-needy teams — decide to draft the Penn State dynamo, it could open the door for Cleveland to select Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Needing help at both defensive back spots, but not as much at safety since the franchise selected Jabrill Peppers in last year’s first round, the Browns could look to Fitzpatrick or Denzel Ward at No. 4. Ward is a pure cornerback from an Ohio State program that’s produced plenty of first-rounders in recent years, with Bradley Roby and Marshon Lattimore showing the talent the recent Buckeyes have possessed.

A Fitzpatrick choice could be contingent on whether the Browns believe he fits as a corner or safety. A hybrid player at Alabama, Fitzpatrick has drawn Jalen Ramsey comparisons. And the Browns’ decision at safety in March figures to play into how they view Fitzpatrick — a surefire starter if he were northeast Ohio-bound.

This safety market features maybe the deepest UFA talent pool of any position. Numerous starters figure to be available.

The Rams will have a decision to make on Lamarcus Joyner, a franchise tag candidate who could induce a bidding war if he hits the market. Other young talents like Eric Reid, Kenny Vaccaro and Tre Boston are headed for free agency. Boston delivered a strong contract season as a top-10 cover safety in 2017, and Reid wasn’t far off that pace despite the 49ers being ready let him walk. Reid, Boston and Vaccaro may not land in the salary stratum Joyner would if not tagged, but each would be an upgrade alongside Peppers.

And with the Browns being able to outflank any competition for these players, it would be a shock to see them not end up with at least one high-caliber UFA in the secondary. More than likely, there will be at least two new starters — and they figure to come via impact free agency buys or via first- or second-round pick — coming to Cleveland to help Gregg Williams‘ defense. Perhaps they will have enough talent to avoid stationing Peppers in another dimension from quarterbacks next season.

3) Sort out skill positions: Employer of one of the most mercurial talents in NFL history, the Browns do not have much in the way of reliable pieces at any of their skill spots.

Josh Gordon returned in December and easily looked like the Browns’ best pass-catcher despite a three-year absence. Because of the litany of suspensions he’s incurred, Gordon will only be an RFA after next season. His service-time clock being stalled to a historic degree benefits the Browns, but they can’t exactly count on the inconsistent star talent (who is still only 26) to be available. Corey Coleman has also failed to live up to his draft status, twice sitting out extensive time due to hand breaks. David Njoku is a work in progress, and Isaiah Crowell is a UFA. There will be new faces moving the chains in Cleveland next season.

Wide receiver is another area where the Browns should consider going big. They have two rookie-contract players as starters presently and can afford a top-market deal at this position. Although, teams’ franchise tag decisions will affect how the Browns can proceed here.

The Dolphins surprisingly tagged Jarvis Landry, who was set to be the top wideout available, and the Rams and Jaguars have nearly two weeks to decide if Sammy Watkins and Allen Robinson are worthy of their respective tags. Robinson would cost the Jaguars $16.2MM to tag on a payroll that will have Blake Bortles attached to a $19MM salary. But that’s in play, as is a Watkins tag, though the Rams may see Joyner as a better fit long-term and tag the safety instead.

Despite Watkins’ shaky season in Los Angeles (39 receptions, 593 yards, eight touchdowns), he will command eight figures per year on the open market. So will Robinson, who delivered the best season any UFA wideout has with his 2015 performance — 80 receptions, 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns. The 24-year-old pass-catcher should still be an ascending player despite his ACL tear, but his other seasons — two of which seeing extensive time missed because of injuries — make 2015 look like an outlier year. A Watkins pursuit would be interesting considering the Browns, two GMs ago, traded out of the position (No. 4 overall) that ended up sending the Clemson wideout to the Bills in 2014.

Neither would have been as good of a fit as Landry, but both should warrant Browns consideration. Marqise Lee or Paul Richardson also could be options, but they would be second-level solutions behind Robinson or Watkins. And the Browns could target a receiver with one of their second-round picks as well.

Despite a brutal Redskins season, Terrelle Pryor has popped back up on the Browns’ radar. He will likely be available for less than he was last season, and the converted wideout might want to return after the Browns’ Kenny Britt-over-Pryor decision (a no-winners outcome) forced the Ohio State product to look elsewhere for his UFA money. Cleveland’s previous regime also tried to reacquire Pryor via October trade. A reunion would be an interesting gamble, but Pryor did surpass 1,000 receiving yards in a season that featured a revolving door of QBs throwing to him.

The previous Browns regime and Crowell attempted for months to reach an extension agreement, but the multiyear starter’s contract season featured a bit of a regression (853 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 4.1 yards per carry) from his standout 2016 work (952/7/4.8) despite the Browns devoting attention to their offensive front last March. Of course, DeShone Kizer‘s disastrous debut season made it harder for Crowell and his skill mates.

If Crowell is to leave as a free agent, the best option the Browns have is to draft Barkley. However, how big of a priority is it the Browns take the top Nittany Lion of recent years? If the Browns view Barkley as a transcendent back, might they use the No. 1 overall pick on him? If that happens, though, other teams will be dictating which quarterback the Browns can select. It’s hard to believe a running back would be worth bypassing that privilege.

The Browns have a pass-catching back already, although Duke Johnson is entering a contract year, so would Dion Lewis be a superfluous commodity? Also available as fifth-year players: Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill and Jerick McKinnon. DeMarco Murray might become available as well, but does the likely declining match the team’s timeline? The Browns may bypass the higher-end backfield market in March in hopes of getting Barkley, whose abilities could induce Cleveland to part with one of its second-round picks and maybe more to trade up from No. 4 to make sure he ends up in orange and brown. If the Browns do dive into the back market, it’s not an impressive contingent.

However, numerous backs have proven they can thrive as Day 2 or Day 3 picks, as this year’s Kareem Hunt–Alvin Kamara offensive rookie of the year duel illustrated. Using a second- or third-round pick on a back might be a better way for the Browns to go if they don’t land Barkley. USC’s Ronald Jones III, Georgia’s Nick Chubb/Sony Michel combination and Oregon’s Royce Freeman are possible Day 2 options.

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2018 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

By Zachary Links | at February 20, 2018 12:13 am

Starting today, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags is open, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.

As our list of important dates for the 2018 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those tags doesn’t come until Tuesday, March 6. Usually, when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will wait until that deadline approaches to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.

Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2018’s franchise tag period. The NFL hasn’t officially announced the salary cap figure for 2017, but OverTheCap.com recently projected the 2018 franchise tag salaries based on a presumed $178MM cap. Here are the expected non-exclusive franchise tag amounts:

Quarterback: $23.09MM
Running back: $11.72MM
Wide receiver: $16.23MM
Tight end: $10.36MM
Offensive line: $14.54MM
Defensive end: $17.52MM
Defensive tackle: $14.53MM
Linebacker: $15.47MM
Cornerback: $14.88MM
Safety: $11.08MM
Punter/kicker: $5.06MM

(For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject.)

Here’s our look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities:

Virtual Locks:

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: Last offseason, things got pretty weird between the Steelers and Bell. Just before the deadline to extend franchise tagged players, the Steelers believed that they had agreed on a five-year offer worth roughly $60MM. Ultimately, Bell backed out because he did not find the guarantees and cash flow to be to his liking. Soon after, friend and former teammate Ike Taylor said that Bell wanted a contract that reflects his performance as both a No. 1 back and a No. 2 receiver – something in the neighborhood of $15MM per year. This year, Bell topped his 75 catch total with 85 grabs, so one has to imagine that his position hasn’t changed. Despite some retirement threats in January, Bell has indicated that talks are going better this time around. Here’s where things get interesting – the Steelers say that today (Feb. 20) is the “deadline” for a long-term deal to get signed. If not, they’ll go ahead and franchise tag him for a second consecutive season, leaving Bell with a one-year, $14.5MM pact when factoring in the 20% increase. Will Bell buckle and sign a deal that isn’t quite to his satisfaction? In theory, the running back could abstain from offseason activities and even reboot retirement talk in an effort to get the Steelers to cave and abide by the real extension deadline on July 16.
Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Cowboys: It has already been reported that the Cowboys will go ahead and tag Lawrence to prevent him from reaching free agency. Once that happens, you can expect the cash-strapped Cowboys to get to work on an extension that will smooth out the $17.5MM cap hit for defensive ends. There won’t be much drama as to whether the Cowboys will or won’t tag Lawrence, but the subsequent multi-year negotiations will be interesting to watch. Lawrence had a rocky first three seasons in the NFL, but he stepped up big in his contract year with 14.5 sacks. The Cowboys must be willing to pay Lawrence like a top DE, but they may insist on protections like an easy escape hatch or heavy roster bonuses in the event that he is injured or suspended.

Strong Candidates:

Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams: As our own Micah Powell explained on Sunday, Watkins is a candidate for the tag with mutual interest on both sides in continuing their union. Committing major dollars to Watkins is dicey, however, given his injury history and his somewhat disappointing stat line in 2017. If the Rams let Watkins hit the open market, they’ll risk losing him to other teams with more wiggle room under the salary cap. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. And in a weak crop of free agent wide receivers, Watkins could clean up and leave the Rams without an obvious replacement.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars: Tagging Watkins will be a tough call for the Rams and the Jaguars have a similarly difficult decision to make when it comes to Robinson. Robinson played only three snaps in 2017 before going down with a torn ACL and he didn’t set the world on fire in 2016. However, his 2015 performance – 80 catches, 1,400 yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns – makes it hard for Jacksonville to let him walk. In theory, the Jaguars could re-sign fellow free agent Marqise Lee and let Robinson go, but Robinson is clearly the more talented of the two and one could argue that Lee’s late-season emergence was fueled by advantageous matchups. It’ll be pricey, but the Jaguars are suddenly in position to win and they can’t afford to let one of their best weapons bolt.

Toss Up:

Kyle Fuller, CB, Bears: Frankly, I’m conflicted on this one. I’m sure Bears GM Ryan Pace can relate. Fuller turned in a strong rookie campaign and an excellent contract year, but he was a victim of the sophomore jinx and an unfortunate knee injury which cost him his entire season as an NFL junior. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com hears that Fuller will not be with the Bears this year. But, considering that Fuller graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 22 ranked cornerback and the position is already a major area of need for the team, the Bears have to at least think about tagging him for $14.88MM.
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Lions: Ansah has performed pretty well over the last two seasons, despite playing through some serious pain. The Lions probably aren’t thrilled about extending a one-year, $17.5MM tender to Ansah, but pressure generating edge rushers like him are at a premium. Consider this: Ansah tallied 12 sacks last year despite knee, ankle, and back ailments. Only seven players topped that total: Chandler Jones, Calais Campbell, DeMarcus Lawrence, Everson Griffen, Cam Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, and Joey Bosa.
Case Keenum, QB, Vikings: Is one year as an elite quarterback enough to justify the franchise tag? Maybe, but the Vikings have options at their disposal, including two other pending free agents already on the roster. If the Vikings can’t retain Keenum or Bradford or Bridgewater with a reasonable multi-year deal between now and free agency, they can use their mountain of cap space to get involved in the Cousins sweepstakes.
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Seahawks: The Jets had both Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson under contract, but they could only afford to pay one of the two defensive linemen. Clearly, they chose wrong. For all of the headaches that Richardson gave the team, the five-year, $86MM deal given to Wilkerson wound up being a monumental mistake and will continue to be an albatross for the Jets even after they cut him this offseason. The Seahawks gave up a second-round choice and wide receiver Jermaine Kearse to get Richardson – will they make the same mistake and let him get away? Perhaps not, but it would also be a major gamble to tag him at $14.5MM with limited cap space and other holes to address. The best course of action here may be to try and work out a fresh deal without the franchise tag as a floor for Richardson’s camp. If that fails and the two sides can’t come to terms, the Seahawks can at least collect a 2019 compensatory pick.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins: Team president Bruce Allen has intimated that the Redskins could tag Cousins in an effort to get something for him via trade. Could the Redskins be that petty when it comes to Cousins? Yes, absolutely. But the Redskins would be taking on a monumental risk by applying the tag to him when they already have Alex Smith penciled in as their starter. Cousins also feels that he has a strong grievance case against Washington if he is cuffed, so the Redskins could wind up hurting their own flexibility during the most important part of the offseason for absolutely nothing.
Andrew Norwell, OG, Panthers: Heading into this week, our feeling was that Norwell was a very strong candidate for the tag. But, on Monday night, Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer learned that the Panthers are not expected to use their franchise tag on any player. Norwell, a former UDFA, has established himself as one of the very best guards in the NFL. This year, he set new personal watermarks in advanced analytics and graded out as the No. 3 ranked OG in the league, per Pro Football Focus. If the Panthers do not tag him and do not find a way to retain him before mid-March, he could be a goner. Old friend Dave Gettleman, who has roughly $24.5MM in cap space to work with, would pounce at the chance to add Norwell to the Giants’ offensive line.
Star Lotulelei, DE, Panthers: Again, the Panthers are not expected to use the tag. If they change their minds on that front, they’d probably lean towards using it on Norwell anyway. With limited cap room to work with, Carolina will likely allow Lotulelei to leave while giving a larger role to 2016 first-round pick Vernon Butler.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins: In December, Landry’s agent asked the Dolphins for a deal worth about $14MM annually with $30MM in guarantees. As of late January, the ‘Fins have not come to the table with a counter offer. The Dolphins could surprise us and keep Landry in place with the tag, but right now it doesn’t feel all that likely. The wide receiver has told those close to him that he doesn’t expect to return to Miami, so he could be in position to be the highest-paid wide receiver in this year’s free agent crop. A word of caution to Landry and agent Damarius Bilbo: Alshon Jeffery, Terrelle Pryor, and Kenny Britt reportedly believed that they were in line for $12MM/year offers last year. Jeffery and Pryor both had to settle for one-year, eight-figure pillow contracts (with drastically different results, of course). Britt got an AAV of just $8.1MM on a four-year deal, and that failure will be fresh in the mind of any team exploring Landry.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins , TE, Jets: The Jets reportedly offered ASJ a two-year, $8MM deal, which he rejected. The one-year tag ($9.8MM) is worth more than the total of that two-year offer, so it seems highly unlikely that Gang Green will take the plunge. Seferian-Jenkins had his best career year with 50 catches for 357 yards and three TDs, but the Jets reportedly won’t go overboard to retain him.
Justin Pugh, OG, Giants: Pugh is perhaps the longest of the longshots listed here. He is included only because of the Giants’ serious need up front and the dearth of quality interior linemen in this year’s free agent class. In theory, the Giants could overpay to put a placeholder on him, but we don’t expect the new regime to go that route, particularly since he didn’t grade out well in his injury-shorted 2017. If the Giants want to apply the tag to Pugh, it will be interesting to see how he is classified since he has also spent time at tackle.

Franchise Tag Candidate: Sammy Watkins

By Micah Powell | at February 19, 2018 9:29 pm

The Rams pulled off a blockbuster move leading up to the 2017 season, trading defensive back E.J. Gaines and a second-round pick in 2018 to the Bills in exchange for former first-round receiver Sammy Watkins and a sixth-round selection in 2018.

The move was a mixed bag for Los Angeles. On the one hand, Watkins led the team with eight receiving touchdowns, averaged 15.2 yards per reception and helped the Rams post the No. 1 scoring offense in the league. On the other hand, however, the fourth-year wideout made only 39 receptions on the season and ranked fourth on the team with 593 yards. The thought is that the receiver will benefit of a full offseason with the high-powered offense.

“I just think he got on a roll with the guys that [Jared Goff] had during OTAs, and once a guy is used to throwing it to someone else, he throws to his guys,” Watkins said. “It’s just part of the game where you need more time, or maybe another year.”

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Watkins would like the remain with the Rams and that they would like to have him back. His proficiency on vertical routes opens up the middle of the field for chain movers like Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, and frees up space in the flats for Todd Gurley. What could hold the team back from tagging the explosive wideout is twofold. First, the cost to franchise tag a receiver is projected to be $16.2 MM, according to overthecap.com. That’s a hefty price to pay for a receiver who has missed 12 games in the last three seasons and didn’t show much in 2018. The second reason is that the Rams are also debating placing the franchise tag on safety Lamarcus Joyner. That would only cost Los Angeles a projected $11 MM.

In 2018, Pro Football Focus rated Watkins the No. 33 receiver in the NFL with a grade of 76.2, tying him with Ted Ginn. The site also published a piece on the receiver, detailing how his touchdown rate — 11.43 — is almost impossible to replicate. From the in-depth article:

So, from 2007 to 2016, 60 players had a 10-percent touchdown rate on 50-plus targets. Of those 60, two (2012-13 Danario Alexander and 2013-14 Marvin Jones) did not play at all the next season. So 58, then. Those 58 players averaged 10.8 touchdowns on 87.12 targets (12.7 percent). A year later, that same group averaged 5.5 touchdowns on 83.8 targets (6.8 percent). Essentially, guys who score touchdowns at a 10-percent rate one year see that rate cut in half the next.

There is no doubting the talent Watkins possesses. If he can recapture and build on his success from his Buffalo days, there is no doubt the Clemson product has the potential to be an 80-catch, 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown receiver in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

As detailed earlier on Pro Football Rumors, receiver is not one of the Rams’ most pressing needs entering the 2018 offseason. With Woods, Cupp and the emerging Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles appears set with plenty of talent at the position. With a projected $51 MM in cap space, however, the team could afford to bring back Watkins for another year to see if Watkins can live up to his projected playmaker status coming out of college.

The choice is a boom-or-bust one for the Rams. Do they think he is likely to emerge as a No. 1 pass catcher in a potent attack with a full season working with Goff in the books? Or do they think that 2018 is the beginning of a trend rather than an outlier?

1 comment 2018 Franchise Tag Candidates Los Angeles Rams Newsstand PFR Originals Sammy Watkins

PFR Glossary: Franchise/Transition Tags

By Zachary Links | at February 19, 2018 4:31 pm

Tuesday will mark the first day that teams can apply the franchise tag to free-agents-to-be for 2018. While no clubs have designated franchise players yet, there will likely at least a handful of players receiving the tag before the March 6 deadline, so it’s worth taking an in-depth look at what exactly it means to be designated as a franchise player.

Essentially, the franchise tag is a tool that a team can use to keep one of its free agents from freely negotiating with rival suitors on the open market. Designating a franchise player means tendering that player a one-year contract offer. The amount of that offer varies from year to year and from position to position, and also differs slightly depending on what sort of specific tag the team employs. Here’s a breakdown of the three types of franchise/transition tags:

Exclusive franchise tag:

The amount of the one-year offer is either the average of the top five highest-paid players at the player’s position in the current league year or 120% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is greater. The top five highest-paid players at the position are determined once the free agent signing period ends in May, so the exact amount isn’t known until then.
The player isn’t allowed to negotiate with other teams.
The player and his team have until July 15 (or the first business day thereafter, which falls on Monday July 16 this year) to work out a multiyear agreement. After that date, the player can only sign a one-year contract.
The exclusive tag is generally only used for extremely valuable free agents, such as franchise quarterbacks.

Non-exclusive franchise tag:

The amount of the one-year offer is determined by a formula that includes the salary cap figures and the non-exclusive franchise salaries at the player’s position for the previous five years. Alternately, the amount of the one-year offer can be 120% of the player’s previous salary, if that amount is greater.
The player is free to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet with another team, his current team has five days to match the offer.
If the offer is not matched, the player’s previous team will receive two first-round draft picks as compensation from the signing team.
As is the case with the exclusive franchise tag, July 15 (which, again, falls on July 16 this year) represents the deadline for a multiyear agreement.
Due to the attached compensatory picks, the non-exclusive franchise tag is generally sufficient for free agents — few rival suitors are willing to give up multiple first-rounders in order to sign a free agent to a lucrative deal, so there’s not much risk for a team to give up exclusive negotiating rights.

Transition tag:

The amount of the one-year offer is either the average of the top 10 highest-paid players at the player’s position in the previous league year or 120% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is greater.
The player is free to negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet with another team, his current team has five days to match the offer.
If the offer is not matched, the player’s previous team does not receive any compensatory draft picks.
Because it does not include any draft compensation or exclusive negotiation rights, and is only slightly more affordable, the transition tag is rarely used.

The exact amounts of these tags won’t be known until the salary cap number for 2018 is announced, and even then, the exclusive franchise tag amount won’t be established immediately. However, OverTheCap.com has a breakdown of the projected non-exclusive figures, ranging from around $5.06MM for a punter or kicker all the way up to $23MM+ for a quarterback. We already know that the Cowboys intend to use the tag on defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, with an eye on hammering out a long-term pact before the deadline. Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell also appears to be a very likely candidate for the designation. Others in the franchise tag mix include Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson, Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins, and Panthers guard Andrew Norwell.

Here are a few relevant details on franchise tags:

Each year, the period for teams to designate franchise players runs from the 22nd day before the new league year begins, right up until the eighth day before that new year. In 2018, that means February 20 to March 6, with the 2018 league year set to start on March 14.
A team can withdraw a franchise or transition tag at any time once when the free agent period begins, but it would immediately make the player an unrestricted free agent, allowing him to sign with any team.
If a player is designated a franchise player for a third time, the amount of his one-year offer is equal to the exclusive franchise salary for the highest-paid position (QB), 120% of the five largest prior-year salaries at his position, or 144% of his previous salary. That’s why, for instance, the Rams won’t franchise cornerback Trumaine Johnson this offseason — it would be his third straight franchise tag, so he’d be eligible for roughly $20MM for 2018.
Teams are allowed to designated one franchise player and one transition player per offseason. A team can also designate two transition players if it doesn’t designate a franchise player, but can’t designate two franchise players.
Restricted free agents can be designated as franchise players.
If a player chooses to sign the one-year franchise tender, his salary is essentially guaranteed. The CBA notes that if a team releases the player due to a failure “to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition,” the team may recoup his salary. However, a franchise player released due to poor performance, injury, or cap maneuvering will receive his full salary.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier entry by editor emeritus Luke Adams. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Joel Corry and OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.

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2018 Top 3 Offseason Needs Series

By Dallas Robinson | at February 19, 2018 9:30 am

Over the last few weeks, Pro Football Rumors has been taking a closer look at the 2018 offseason on a team-by-team basis. Our Top 3 Offseason Needs series focuses on each club’s most glaring roster issues, free agents, potential cap casualties, positions of possible focus, and other issues facing teams this winter.

Just in case you missed our preview for your favorite team, we’re rounding up all of our Offseason Needs pieces in this post. We have several more teams to examine before free agency officially gets underway on March 14, so if your team isn’t linked below, be sure to keep a close eye on PFR — it’ll be coming soon.

Here are the links to our 2018 Top 3 Offseason Needs pieces to date:

AFC East:

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets

AFC North:

AFC South:

AFC West:

NFC East:

NFC North:

NFC South:

NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks

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PFR Originals: 2/11/18 – 2/18/18

By Dallas Robinson | at February 18, 2018 2:31 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

As the offseason progresses, PFR will assess each team by examining the top three needs on each respective NFL roster. We covered five organizations last week:
Kirk Cousins won’t be back in Washington after the Redskins acquired fellow quarterback Alex Smith, so Sam Robinson asked PFR readers where the top free agent quarterback will end up in 2018. A number of clubs — including the Vikings, Browns, and Cardinals — could theoretically express interest, but the Broncos have thus far garnered the majority of the vote.

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Poll: Who Will Sign Kirk Cousins?

By Sam Robinson | at February 17, 2018 6:33 pm

With less than a month until free agency begins, Kirk Cousins looks to be — barring an 11th-hour Redskins franchise tag he would fight — close to signing a long-term contract with the team of his choice.

It’s an incredibly unique situation, and teams with disparate profiles figure to make runs at signing the 29-year-old quarterback. Rebuilding teams, contending teams and operations that would seemingly be contenders if supplied a quarterback are going to pursue Cousins. So, where will he go?

The Jets and Browns are going to have the most money to chase Cousins, and the former makes sense as a destination. New York surprised many last season by winning five games and finishing well off the pace for the No. 1 pick, which many predicted the rebuilding team would secure. The Jets could have more than $90MM in cap space after a few sensible roster moves, and despite their troubles in recent years, could make a case they are a young team who could build a long-term foundation around Cousins.

Cousins has said repeatedly that after making more than $44MM the past two years he wants to play for a contending team. The Browns, though, have a staggering amount of cap space at $110MM-plus. They could sell a free agent QB on their ability to construct a foundation, but their past does not inspire much confidence. And this, by just about every indication to this point, seems like the year they draft a quarterback.

The Bills made a surprise run to the playoffs last season, but Brandon Beane said upon being hired he doesn’t plan to make many high-cost free agent signings. Considering this figures to be the most expensive free agent in NFL history, it’s difficult to envision a Bills push for Cousins. And Tyrod Taylor may not be completely out of the picture yet.

The Broncos and Cardinals are in similar positions as recent contenders who have fallen off the pace a bit, and neither will have the cap space to outflank the Jets or Browns. Both saw quarterback play lower their ceilings last season, and the Cardinals saw their longtime starter retire and his backups’ contracts expire. Denver has both Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian under contract but has made no secret about wanting to upgrade — via free agency or the draft — with that desire presumably being centered around complementing the core players remaining from the Super Bowl season.

Both the Broncos and Jets are rumored to be gearing up for entrances into the Cousins sweepstakes, and the Bovada sports book has these two as the early frontrunners. However, both the Vikings and Jaguars fit the profile of franchises that could use Cousins as a possible springboard to a Super Bowl. How serious are they about this, though?

The Jaguars may have complications because of Blake Bortles‘ wrist surgery. The embattled starter not being able to pass a physical come mid-March will guarantee his $19MM fifth-year option salary and cloud a potential Cousins pursuit. Jacksonville’s current plan is to keep Bortles, but is a chance at Cousins too tempting to avoid?

The Vikings would make sense as well but may opt to stick with Case Keenum via franchise tag. However, Cousins has proven more than Keenum, and although he would make for a costlier expense, Minnesota being on the doorstep of its first Super Bowl berth in 40-plus years may make ditching their 2017 setup for Cousins a worthwhile gamble. The Vikings do have several core players entering contract years, which could make a near-$30MM-AAV Cousins accord complicated. Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter are four who fit that profile. How much will that factor into a Cousins push?

So, where does Cousins end up?

Does he stick to his winning-situation statements and avoid teams who have struggled in recent years, or can the Browns or Jets submit an offer he can’t refuse? Can the Broncos make a sales pitch that their history surrounding a UFA QB with championship-caliber talent would be worth sacrificing a bit of cash, or is their nucleus’ window closing to the point Cousins looks elsewhere? How serious are the Cardinals and Bills in this derby? And how much would the Vikings or Jaguars entering the fray change the outlook of this high-stakes process? Take PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Who will sign Kirk Cousins?

Denver Broncos 35% (2,345)
New York Jets 21% (1,367)
Minnesota Vikings 18% (1,184)
Cleveland Browns 9% (627)
Arizona Cardinals 9% (570)
Jacksonville Jaguars 4% (261)
Buffalo Bills 2% (144)
Another team 2% (115)

Total votes: 6,613

16 comments Arizona Cardinals Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars Minnesota Vikings New York Jets PFR Originals PFR Polls Kirk Cousins

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Philadelphia Eagles

By Dallas Robinson | at February 16, 2018 8:06 pm

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Philadelphia Eagles, who overcame the loss of their MVP-caliber starting quarterback to win the Super Bowl.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Beau Allen, DT
Kenjon Barner, RB
Will Beatty, T
LeGarrette Blount, RB
Nigel Bradham, LB
Bryan Braman, DE
Trey Burton, TE
Dannell Ellerbe, LB
Najee Goode, LB
Corey Graham, S
Patrick Robinson, CB
Darren Sproles, RB
Caleb Sturgis, K
Jaylen Watkins, S (RFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Fletcher Cox, DT: $17,900,000
Lane Johnson, T: $12,250,000
Jason Peters, T: $11,666,666
Vinny Curry, DL: $11,000,000
Brandon Brooks, G: $10,886,397
Zach Ertz, TE: $10,345,000
Malcolm Jenkins, S: $10,000,000
Rodney McLeod, S: $8,406,250
Mychal Kendricks, LB: $7,600,000
Nick Foles, QB: $7,600,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): -$9,426,190
32nd pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for WR Nelson Agholor

Three Needs:

1) Figure out what to do with Nick Foles: After the Eagles lost starting quarterback Carson Wentz to a torn ACL in Week 14, no one gave them much of a chance to sustain an extended postseason run. Although Philadelphia boasted one of the best overall rosters in the NFL, backup signal-caller Nick Foles didn’t inspire a ton of confidence. And he probably shouldn’t have: aside from one solid 2016 start with the Chiefs, Foles hadn’t been productive since the 2013 campaign (which also came with the Eagles). Philadelphia received a first-round bye after securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but a short playoff stint looked exceedingly likely.

We all know what happened next. Despite being the underdog in each game, the Eagles held on against the Falcons in the Divisional Round, destroyed the Vikings in the NFC Championship, and pulled out a classic against the Patriots to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history. Foles was surgical, completing 28-of-43 attempts for 373 yards and three touchdowns while catching a touchdown pass from tight end Trey Burton on a fourth down, Philly Special play call. Two years after contemplating retirement, Foles is the reigning Super Bowl MVP.

So what do the Eagles do with Foles now? He’s not going to return as a starter in 2018, as Wentz is Philadelphia’s franchise quarterback and was on track to be named league MVP before he went down with injury. But that doesn’t mean Foles can’t come back as Wentz’s backup for another season, especially given how he proved his value during the Eagles’ Super Bowl run. But Foles is expensive: discounting Mike Glennon, who is sure to be released this offseason, Foles is the league’s highest-paid No. 2 quarterback. He’s due to count for $7.6MM on Philadelphia’s 2018 salary cap, and will collect $6MM in cash next season.

Most clubs would be able to afford a top-tier backup signal-caller at Foles’ price, but the Eagles’ salary cap situation is dire. At present, Philadelphia ranks dead last in expected 2018 space, and is projected to be nearly $10MM over the cap when the new league year begins in March. If Foles is traded, the Eagles would pick up $5.2MM in cap room, a penance to many teams but a critical amount for Philadelphia. There are other ways for vice president of football operations Howie Roseman to create space, to be sure, but trading Foles would also allow the Eagles to add draft capital, another benefit for a team that currently lacks a second- or third-round pick.

What type of return the Eagles can expect for Foles is an open question. Here’s a look at how much several comparable quarterbacks have cost over the past two seasons:

Jacoby Brissett is the absolute floor for a possible Foles trade, but Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Bradford are both acceptable comps. Sure, Jimmy G now looks like one of the NFL’s next great quarterbacks, but at the time the Patriots dealt him to the 49ers, Garoppolo boasted only two career starts and 94 career attempts — Foles topped both of those marks (and posted a superior quarterback rating) during the Eagles’ playoff run alone. Of course, Garoppolo hadn’t put any poor performances on film and was 26 years old when he was traded, while Foles does have some substandard play on his record and is entering his age-29 season.

Like Foles, Bradford was an Eagle at the time he was dealt, and was coming off a campaign in which he completed 65% of his passes for 19 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and an 86.4 passer rating. While he never hit the highs that did Foles, Bradford managed his competent performance over a 14-game stretch, giving an indication that his production would be sustainable going forward. Foles was excellent over a three-playoff-game sample, but will other NFL clubs be willing to bet on him as a starter in 2018?

Given that Foles’ value is at an all-time high, I don’t see how the Eagles can’t at least explore his trade value, especially given their salary cap and draft capital situation. I’d set parameters, though, and likely wouldn’t accept anything less than a early-to-mid second-round selection. The 2018 quarterback market offers more options — Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Bradford — than any in recent memory, so teams may not be clamoring to acquire Foles, but clubs such as the Browns (pick Nos. 33 and 35 in the early second round), the Jets (No. 37), the Broncos (No. 40), the Cardinals (No. 47), and Bills (No. 53) could all express interest.

If Foles is gone, the Eagles will need a new backup quarterback (although they have indicated confidence in third-stringer Nate Sudfeld). Philadelphia isn’t likely to find a better option than Sudfeld late in the draft, so a free agent signal-caller would represent the expected solution. Of course, any veteran inked by the Eagles would need to come at a cheaper rate than Foles (otherwise there’d be no financial reason to trade him). Josh McCown and Matt Moore stand out as experienced quarterbacks who could competently fill in for Wentz, while a trade acquisition — perhaps the Browns include DeShone Kizer or Cody Kessler in a Foles swap — can’t be ruled out.

2) Part ways with Jason Peters, but find a swing tackle: We’ve already covered the Eagles’ ominous salary cap situation, but trading Nick Foles might not be the only financially-motivated move Philadelphia needs to make over the coming weeks. Veteran left tackle Jason Peters, who played in seven games before tearing his ACL, is set to count for $10.667MM in 2018, an unpalatable figure for a 36-year-old coming off injury. While Eagles head coach Doug Pederson recently indicated Peters will return to Philadelphia next season, Pederson isn’t the one making the tough cap-related decisions — those calls will fall to Howie Roseman, who must weigh Peters’ ability against his cost.

However, the Eagles will almost certainly have to trade Peters if they want to experience any cap relief. Under the terms of his recent extension, Peters garnered a $4.5MM injury guarantee for the 2018 season. Given that he tore his ACL in October, Peters likely won’t be able to pass a physical before that total becomes fully guaranteed in March, so Philadelphia will be paying the sum either way. In fact, it will cost more — $10,833,334 vs. $10,666,666 — to cut Peters than to keep him on the roster next year, provided that $4.5MM guarantee kicks in.

As such, a trade of Peters is the only way the Eagles can get his cap charge off their books, and I’d expect a number of teams to be interested in acquiring a high-quality tackle, even an aged one with a knee injury. Peters, a likely future Hall of Famer, graded as the NFL’s seventh-best offensive tackle before going down in 2017, per Pro Football Focus, meaning he’s still a valuable commodity. Club such as the Patriots (if they lose Nate Solder to free agency), the Bengals, the Texans, the Jaguars, the Buccaneers, and the Cardinals could all use a left tackle, and Peters would only cost an acquiring team $6.75MM next season.Read more

The reason the Eagles can feel comfortable trading Peters is Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who struggled when first pressed into action at left tackle but greatly improved as he gained repetitions. The former fifth-round pick is under contract for two more seasons at cheap rates, while right tackle Lane Johnson is signed through 2021. Philadelphia is set as far as starting tackles go, but if the club trades Peters, it will likely need to add a new swing tackle capable of covering for either Vaitai or Johnson in the event of injury.

While the Eagles could scour the free agent market for a new backup offensive lineman, there’s not much out there. Players such as Solder and Cameron Fleming will be looking for starting jobs, while taking a chance on failed starters such as Greg Robinson or Donald Stephenson doesn’t seem viable. Austin Pasztor could be an intriguing addition, as he was excellent as the Browns’ right tackle in 2016 befor finding surprisingly tepid demand the following spring. Additionally, Matt Tobin — whom the Eagles traded to the Seahawks last year — could be interested in a reunion with Philadelphia.

The Birds won’t have the luxury of adding a developmental tackle in the second or third round, but they could use their first-round selection on a front five player. An ideal situation would see one of the draft’s top three tackles — Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame), Connor Williams (Texas), and Orlando Brown (Oklahoma) — fall to No. 32, but if that doesn’t happen, Philadelphia could select Kolton Miller (UCLA) or Will Richardson (North Carolina State) in the mid rounds. The Eagles should focus on linemen capable of playing both tackle and guard, as incumbent left guard Stefen Wisniewski was the weak point on an outstanding offensive line.

3) Sort out the linebackers: The Eagles won the Super Bowl without the benefit of Wentz and Peters, but they weren’t the only top-tier Philadelphia players that went down in 2017. Linebacker Jordan Hicks — who was outstanding during his first two years in the NFL — ruptured his Achilles in October, ending his season. While Hicks should be available when the 2018 gets underway, the Eagles will still likely need to bring in at least one linebacker this offseason.

The need for another ‘backer will be lessened if Mychal Kendricks is retained, but given that he’s been involved in transactional rumors for some time, I expect him to be either released or traded in the coming weeks. Kendricks is only 27 years old and graded as the ninth-best linebacker in the league last year, per PFF, but the Eagles can save $4.4MM in cap space by cutting ties with a player who didn’t even see 50% playtime on defense. Given his age and pedigree, Philadelphia should be able to gin up trade interest in Kendricks, and that would be the preferred means of removing him from the roster.

Assuming Kendricks is gone, the Eagles will need to add at least one off-ball linebacker, and that could be Nigel Bradham, who is scheduled to hit free agency again after completing a two-year deal in Philadelphia. Bradham has been excellent with the Eagles, but he’s probably going to want to cash in this offseason, especially given that he’s only 28 years old. I’d expect Bradham to target at least $8MM annually on a multi-year pact, and that’s not a price the cap-strapped Eagles can afford.

If Bradham prices himself out of Philadelphia’s comfort zone, the club will need to find a cheap free agent to replace him. Off-ball linebackers often see their markets drop once free agency hits, so the Eagles can likely wait out the position and sign a veteran on the cheap. Zach Brown, for example, has been forced to settle for one-year pacts in each of the past two offseasons, and if that happens again, he could move from NFC East team to another and join the Eagles. Meanwhile, 33-year-old Paul Posluszny might be willing to accept a reduced salary in order to play on a Super Bowl contender.

20 comments Newsstand PFR Originals Philadelphia Eagles Top 3 Offseason Needs

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Detroit Lions

By Dallas Robinson | at February 15, 2018 6:38 pm

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Detroit Lions, who missed the postseason in 2017 and subsequently replaced head coach Jim Caldwell with former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Ezekiel Ansah, DE
Don Barclay, OL
Jace Billingsley, WR (ERFA)
Nick Bellore, LB
Don Carey, S
Rodney Coe, DT (ERFA)
Brandon Copeland, DE (RFA)
Darren Fells, TE
Dwight Freeney, DE
D.J. Hayden, CB
Jordan Hill, DT
Kerry Hyder, DE (ERFA)
Zac Kerin, G (RFA)
Mike James, RB
T.J. Jones, WR (RFA)
Nevin Lawson, CB
Don Muhlbach, LS
Haloti Ngata, DT
Kasey Redfern, P (ERFA)
Christian Ringo, DT (ERFA)
Greg Robinson, T
Jake Rudock, QB (ERFA)
Travis Swanson, C
Tahir Whitehead, LB
Tavon Wilson, S
Paul Worrilow, LB
Zach Zenner, RB (RFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Matthew Stafford, QB: $26,500,000
T.J. Lang, G: $10,916,666
Golden Tate, WR: $9,351,250
Marvin Jones, WR: $8,600,000
Eric Ebron, TE: $8,250,000
Glover Quin, S: $6,516,666
Ricky Wagner, T: $5,900,000
Darius Slay, CB: $5,576,269
DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,800,000 (dead money)
Theo Riddick, RB: $3,887,500

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $52,184,502
20th pick in draft

Three Needs:

1) Reset the running game: The Lions famously have gone four-plus years without a running back posting 100 yards in a single game — Reggie Bush last managed that feat in 2013, and he’s also the last Detroit runner to put up 1,000 yards rushing over a full season. Those struggles have lead the Lions to address their backfield in recent years, but 2015 second-round pick Ameer Abdullah hasn’t been able to hold up as an every-down back, while Theo Riddick excels far more as a receiver than as a between-the-tackles runner. After ranking dead last in rushing yards per attempt a season ago, Detroit needs to acquire a new running back in the coming months.

The most obvious free agent target for the Lions should be Dion Lewis, as both he and new head coach Matt Patricia spent the past three years with the Patriots. Detroit general manager Bob Quinn is a former New England staffer, as well, and was the club’s director of pro staffing when Lewis was signed to a futures contract prior to the 2015 campaign. As far as fits go, Lewis and the Lions are like a glove, and Detroit should easily be able to meet Lewis’ reported asking price of $18MM over a three-year term.

While Lewis may have been viewed as a rich man’s Abdullah as recently as last season, he proved in 2017 that he’s capable of being the foundation of a rushing offense. He handled 180 carries last year (eight more than he’d managed over the first four years of his career) and averaged five yards per rush. Lewis also finished first in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (which measures value over a replacement running back), second in DVOA (per-play value), and fourth in success rate (how a back keeps his team “on schedule” with regards to down and distance). Throw in his efforts in the passing game — 32 receptions and a No. 6 ranking in pass-blocking efficiency, per Pro Football Focus — and Lewis is just about as complete a running back as you’ll find on the open market.

Of course, Lewis isn’t the only runner the Lions could consider this offseason. Fellow Patriots free agent Rex Burkhead was given 100 total touches over 10 games in 2017, and could be an option for Detroit if he’s not re-signed by New England. Carlos Hyde and Isaiah Crowell could both offer a bruising style that would mesh well with Abdullah and Riddick. And C.J. Anderson, a rumored candidate for release in Denver, might be on the table, especially given that former Broncos offensive line coach Jeff Davidson is now on staff in Detroit.

The Lions may also look to the draft to find another running back, and while I wouldn’t typically advocate selecting a runner in the first round, the Lions are sitting late enough on Day 1 that a first-round RB contract wouldn’t break the bank. If Saquon Barkley is taken in the top five picks, for example, he’ll receive a four-year contract that pays him nearly $7MM annually. That would immediately place him within the top five highest-paid running backs in the entire NFL. The financial value just isn’t there to make a top-10 running back worth the risk, but the Lions are picking 20th overall. Any RB Detroit takes at that point will only earn roughly $3MM per year, a more than palatable cost.

Barkley will be long gone by the time Detroit gets to turn in its card, but there are other backs who will be worth a Day 1 or 2 selection. Georgia’s Sony Michel should be available at pick No. 20, and Lance Zierlein of NFL.com says the 215-pounder will “drop his pads and meet force with force when it’s time to finish.” Derrius Guice (LSU), Rashaad Penny (San Diego State), and Nick Chubb (Georgia) are among the other burly runners that could come off the board before Day 3.

2) Fix the interior offensive line: Now entering his second season as the Lions’ general manager, Quinn has shown a willingness to pay for offensive line upgrades thus far during his Detroit tenure. Last year, the Lions opted to move on from competent linemen Larry Warford and Riley Reiff, replacing them with fellow free agents T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner. Unfortunately, Detroit will need to bring in at least one addition lineman this offseason, as the club’s front five was sub-par in 2017.

The problem for the Lions’ line resides on the interior: while guards Lang and Graham Glasgow offered acceptable play last year, longtime center Travis Swanson ranked as the worst pivot in the league a season ago, per PFF. Detroit was dead last in adjusted line yards, and also finished last in ALY when running up the middle. Swanson is now a free agent, and given Quinn’s focus on offensive line upgrades during his Lions tenure, I’d expect the club to move on from its 27-year-old center.Read more

Given that they’ve already spent hefty sums to bring in Lang and Wagner and will need to consider an extension for left tackle Taylor Decker in the relatively near future, the Lions may not be willing to enter the top end of the free agent offensive line market for a second consecutive season. As such, if Detroit does add another body to its interior mix, it likely won’t be Weston Richburg, Andrew Norwell, or any other player of that caliber. Instead, a mid-tier signing — Matt Slauson offers positional versatility, while John Sullivan rebounded during his first season in Los Angeles — makes more sense.

Even if they do sign a middling free agent, the Lions should still use multiple draft selections on offensive linemen. Guard/center will be the focus for Detroit, but picking up a new swing tackle may also be on the club’s to-do list (if not, Quinn needs only look at Greg Robinson‘s game tape to remember what a poor left tackle performance does to a front five). Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com and Todd McShay of ESPN.com each sent an interior linemen to Detroit in their most recent mock drafts, with Ohio State’s Billy Price and Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn heading to the Motor City in Jeremiah and McShay’s respective projections.

3) Remake the defensive line: Like his tutor Bill Belichick, Patricia probably won’t stick with just one defensive system and force his players to adapt. Belichick often waits out the free agent market and draft board for good deals, and then formulates his defensive scheme around his available talent. I’d expect Patricia to do the same, so instead of targeting specific free agents, the Lions might see who falls to them and then solidify their defensive plan.

Having said that, Detroit needs help all over its defense, but the emphasis — and the largest questions — should be along the defensive line. The club’s agenda will be affected first and foremost by what it does with pending free agent defensive Ezekiel Ansah, who will hit the open market coming off a 12-sack campaign. Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com recently argued Detroit should utilize the franchise tag on Ansah (likely price tag: $17.5MM), and it’s difficult to argue with his logic.

Although he’s fresh off a season where he excelled at taking down opposing quarterbacks, Ziggy has posted an up-and-down career to this point. Perhaps I’m leaning too heavily on Patricia’s New England ties, but the Patriots haven’t been open to large contracts for sack artists in recent years. Instead, Belichick & Co. have focused more on stout run defenders who can also rush the passer if need (see: Trey Flowers). As such, I wouldn’t the Lions to hand a hefty long-term deal to Ansah. While the franchise tender could represent a compromise for both sides, Detroit will likely let Ansah walk rather than agree to a multi-year extension.

Whether or not Ansah sticks around, the Lions’ plan should include drafting a young defensive end and signing a free agent defensive tackle. The interior defender market is much stronger than edge rusher market, so Detroit should be able to find an affordable tackle, perhaps on Day 2 or 3 of the free agent period. Sheldon Richardson and Dontari Poe likely aren’t fits for the Lions, but Star Lotulelei and DaQuan Jones could be on the club’s radar if they’re not retained by the Panthers and Titans, respectively. The Giants’ Jay Bromley (25) and the Raiders’ Justin Ellis (27) both offer youth, while — again dipping into the New England well — Alan Branch would be solid veteran addition if he’s cut by the Patriots.

Defensive end-wise, Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com recently mocked Sam Hubbard (Ohio State) to Lions, but there are other edge options who might make more sense in the Motor City. Detroit just hired former Boston College defensive line coach Paul Pasqualoni as its defensive coordinator, so BC’s Harold Landry — who has been shooting up draft boards — should be a consideration for the Lions at pick No. 20. Similarly, former UT-San Antonio defensive line coach Bo Davis has taken the same job in Detroit, making UTSA product Marcus Davenport a logical target for Quinn, Patricia, & Co.

4 comments Detroit Lions Newsstand PFR Originals Top 3 Offseason Needs

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