The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff last week:
In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Miami Dolphins, who earned a postseason berth for the first time since 2008 after finishing 10-6 under new head coach Adam Gase.
1) Find a tight end: The Dolphins offense as a whole managed to grow under Adam Gase, as the unit improved from 22nd in DVOA in 2015 to 14th last season. Ryan Tannehill posted the highest quarterback rating of his career, second-year running back Jay Ajayi emerged as a legitimate threat by registering three 200+ yard rushing performances, and receivers Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills each put up more than 700 yards through the air. The one component missing from Miami’s newly-potent offense? A legitimate threat at tight end.
Veteran Jordan Cameron has been a free agent bust since signing a two-year, $15MM deal prior to the 2015 season, but it’s been no fault of his own that he’s struggled to produce after leaving the Browns for the Dolphins. In 2016, Cameron suffered the fourth reported concussion of his career, and was sidelined for the majority of the year by his most recent brain injury. Cameron, 28, is now considering retirement due to the repeated head trauma, and Miami isn’t expected to be interested in a reunion even if Cameron does decide to continue playing.
Given that Cameron only played in three games last year, the Dolphins’ tight end cadre was headlined by Dion Sims, who posted 26 receptions for 256 yards and four touchdowns in 11 starts. Though Sims has never topped 30 catches or 300 yards during his four-year NFL career, Miami reportedly views him as its starter going forward, and as such, intends to re-sign him this offseason. Indeed, despite the club’s interest in retaining Sims, nearly every tight end currently on the roster is a free agent of some kind, so the unit figures to see a good deal of turnover during the next few months.
One place to look for a new weapon at tight end could be the free agent market, where the No. 1 option available figures to be the Patriots’ Martellus Bennett. The 29-year-old recently turned down a $7MM per year extension offer from New England, and while details were scant as to the structure or guarantees in the deal, the rejection does give some indication as to what Bennett’s asking price could be. Bennett figures to be an offseason priority for the Pats, and the Dolphins likely won’t be the only team competing for his services. However, Bennett does have a connection to Gase, as the veteran tight end played under the current Fins head coach while the latter served as Bears OC in 2015 (alas, Bennett posted his worst statistics in recent memory under the tutelage of Gase).
If Bennett proves to be too costly, there are certainly other options available in free agency, though only a few offer the relative youth and perceived upside that does Sims. Houston’s Ryan Griffin (27), Indianapolis’ Jack Doyle (26), Green Bay’s Jared Cook (29), and Dallas’ Gavin Escobar (26) all jump off the page as potential second-tier tight ends who might have a lower price tag than Bennett. If Miami wants a veteran presence to replace Cameron, the club could take a look at Vernon Davis, who just finished a solid first campaign with the Redskins, or Jacob Tamme, who should come cheaply given the nature of his recent shoulder injury.
The Dolphins, who hold the 22nd overall pick in the draft, are situated right in the wheelhouse where a tight end selection might make sense. Alabama’s O.J. Howard is generally regarded as the nation’s best collegiate TE, but Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com recently ranked Miami’s David Njoku slightly ahead of Howard, listing the Hurricanes pass-catcher as the draft’s 13th overall player. Both Howard and Njoku could be in consideration during the first round, while Evan Engram (Mississippi), Jake Butt (Michigan), and Gerald Everett (South Alabama) could make sense farther down the line.
In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Washington Redskins, who narrowly missed a Wild Card berth after finishing with a 8-7-1 record.
1) Commit to Kirk Cousins: The Redskins are reportedly willing to use the franchise tag on quarterback Kirk Cousins for a second consecutive year, a move that would guarantee the sixth-year signal-caller nearly $24MM for the 2017 campaign. Cousins would likely sign the tender immediately (as he did last offseason), as the two one-year pacts would net him ~$44MM over a two-year period. From Washington’s perspective, however, continuing to employ the franchise tag doesn’t make much sense.
Had the Redskins worked out a long-term extension with Cousins last offseason, the club would have likely been forced to guarantee something in the neighborhood of $45MM — roughly the same total he’ll earn from 2016-17 if franchised again — over the life of the contract. Cam Newton received $41MM in guarantees under the terms of his extension signed in June 2015, while Andrew Luck got $47MM fully guaranteed one year later (Aaron Rodgers still ranks first among quarterbacks with $54MM guaranteed). Because Washington is clearly willing to hand Cousins a significant amount of guaranteed cash, an extension is the best outcome for both parties.
Clearly, however, hindsight is 20/20, and there were legitimate reasons not to extend Cousins at this time last year. Cousins was coming off an excellent season, to be sure, but it was his first year as a full-time NFL starter, and there was some concern that he was simply a product of an effectively-schemed Redskins offense. Had Washington locked up Cousins for the long haul, only to see him turn back into a pumpkin this season, management would have been the subject much scorn. But the 28-year-old Cousins largely backed up his results this year, completing 67% of his passes for nearly 5,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while ranking third in DYAR and fifth in DVOA.
Head coach Jay Gruden has found his franchise quarterback, and while Cousins may not a be a top-five signal-caller, he’s certainly among the league’s top-12 QBs, making him an extremely valuable asset. The Redskins aren’t going to start over the position — as usual, there is no quarterback talent available on the free agent market, and a win-now club like Washington isn’t going to turn over its fortunes over to a rookie passer. Getting Cousins, who places first on PFR’s 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings, under contract for the foreseeable future is the logical next step.
Cousins is reportedly targeting $23.94MM — the same total he’d garner under the franchise tag — annually, a figure that would make him the third-highest paid quarterback in the league on a per-year basis. Over the course of a five-year contract, Washington would be paying Cousins nearly $120MM, and given that recent quarterback contracts have included 35-40% fully guaranteed, Cousins would be looking at $45MM in guarantees. It’s a huge total, but contract negotiations are based as much on timing as they are on talent. Cousins has played the free agency game correctly by betting on himself, and he’s now poised to cash in.
In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Philadelphia Eagles, who posted a solid 7-9 record in what was thought to be a rebuilding season.
1) Find an explosive wide receiver: No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz tailed off at the end of his rookie season, unable to sustain the incredible production that he posted earlier in the year. But Wentz’s first NFL campaign should still be viewed in an extremely positive light, as the weapons he had at his disposal were among the worst in the league. The Eagles’ three primary receivers — Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, and Dorial Green-Beckham — all finished outside the top-75 in DYAR, Football Outsiders‘ total value metric for pass-catchers, and no member of that trio amassed more than 850 yards (Agholor and DGB failed to crack even 400 yards).
All three should return in 2017, and there’s certainly room for growth, as none of Matthews, Agholor, or Green-Beckham are even yet 25 years old. But Matthews probably is what he is at this point (a big body who can excel in the slot but isn’t a fit on the outside), while Agholor has completely face-planted during his first two years in the NFL after being selected in the first round of the 2015 draft. Green-Beckham is the best athlete of the three, and Philadelphia, pleased with his grasp of the club’s offense, increased his snaps as the year progressed.
The Eagles know they have a problem at wide receiver, as evidenced by their reported pursuit of the 49ers’ Torrey Smith at last year’s trade deadline. The two clubs never came to an agreement, but it’s possible that talks could be revived during the offseason. In the midst of a deep rebuild, San Francisco could do without paying a wide receiver $8MM per year, and Smith would give the Eagles the deep threat they so desperately covet. As is the case when considering any addition Philadelphia might make, the club will likely need to clear out cap space before making such a move. Cutting Jason Kelce (who is rumored to be on the outs), Ryan Mathews, Leodis McKelvin, and Ron Brooks, for example, would save the Eagles north of $10MM, more than enough to account for a potential Smith trade.
Free agency could also be of interest as Philadelphia explores new pass-catchers, and one option that has been repeatedly linked to the team is former Eagle DeSean Jackson, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent after spending the past three seasons in Washington. The interest between the two parties appears to be mutual, as Jackson is reportedly “intrigued” by the idea of rejoining the Eagles. The 30-year-old Jackson led the league in yards per reception for the third time in his career in 2016, and would add a deep-ball threat to an Eagles offense that was limited to the short passing game last year.
The Eagles could also aim even higher and target the best wide receiver on the open market, the Bears’ Alshon Jeffery. Chicago could of course re-sign or franchise Jeffery before he ever hits free agency, but if Philadelphia does get a shot at him, it would be able to finally acquire a true No. 1 receiver to pair with its complementary pass-catchers. Other free agent choices (of varying price) include Terrelle Pryor (who is familiar with current Eagles QBs coach/former Browns OC John DeFilippo) Michael Floyd, Kenny Stills, and Kenny Britt, while veteran Ted Ginn. Jr. could also make sense if the Eagles simply want a receiver who can get deep with regularity.
If Philadelphia strikes out during free agency, the team could certainly look to the draft to fill its WR void, but I wonder if the Eagles would shy away from another first-round receiver after being burned by Agholor. Still, a number of intriguing prospects should be available during the middle of Day 1, and Western Michigan’s Corey Davis — whom Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com somewhat surprisingly ranks ahead of Clemson’s Mike Williams — could be among them. Calling Davis a “high floor, high ceiling” athlete with excellent separation skills, Jeremiah lists Davis as the eighth overall player in this year’s class. Fellow receivers Williams, John Ross (Washington), Cooper Kupp (Eastern Michigan), Chad Hansen (California) also place among this year’s top-50 prospects, per Jeremiah.
In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New York Giants, who exceeded expectations in the first season of the Ben McAdoo era. After four straight non-playoff years – including three consecutive sub-.500 campaigns – to close out Tom Coughlin‘s tenure, Big Blue went 11-5 in 2016 en route to a wild-card berth. The Giants were one and done in the postseason, though, as the Packers trounced them at Lambeau Field, 38-13.
1.) Acquire more offensive weapons: Quarterback Eli Manning took a step backward this season, though it didn’t help his cause that the Giants had such a non-threatening ground game. Only two teams finished with a worse yards-per-carry average than the Giants’ 3.5, and the club went until Week 17 without a 100-yard rusher. That was Paul Perkins, who had a decent rookie season in a limited showing, but it’s debatable whether he did enough over 112 carries to earn a role as the Giants’ featured back going into 2017. No one else on the roster appears capable of filling the position, especially with Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen looking like potential cap casualties. It would make sense to move on from Jennings, who averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per rush in his age-31 season, in order to clear $2.5MM in spending room. While cutting Vereen would save $3.75MM, that might come down to whether New York is confident he’ll be able to bounce back from an injury-plagued season. The soon-to-be 28-year-old has been eminently useful as a change-of-pace, pass-catching back throughout his career, but he went on injured reserve twice because of triceps issues in 2016.
If the Giants look for a No. 1 back via free agency, Eddie Lacy, LeGarrette Blount and Latavius Murray stand out as the best soon-to-be available options (forget about Le’Veon Bell), while Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles could end up on the market if their teams cut them. In at least some of those cases, however, it’s questionable whether the Giants would actually be upgrading over Perkins. Regarding Lacy, it’s worth noting that he and McAdoo are familiar with one another. Before McAdoo joined Coughlin’s staff in 2014, he worked as the Packers’ quarterbacks coach during Lacy’s rookie year.
In the event the free agent crop doesn’t appeal to the Giants, there will be several early round possibilities available in the draft. Bleacher Report prospect guru Matt Miller currently places six backs (including the controversial Joe Mixon, whom the Giants probably wouldn’t dare take in the wake of the Josh Brown fiasco) in the top 50 of his player rankings.
Turning to the passing game, the Giants have an all-world receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. and a promising one in Sterling Shepard, but not much else. To Victor Cruz‘s credit, the longtime Giant bounced back from two straight lost seasons to play in 15 games in 2016, though he’s far from the star-caliber producer he was from 2011-13. The G-men could move on from Cruz this offseason and open up an extra $7.5MM in cap room. Regardless of his 2017 status, the Giants need at least one more legitimate option in their receiving corps – preferably someone with size.
With Beckham around to serve as the alpha dog among their receivers, it’s difficult to imagine the Giants pursuing either of the best soon-to-be free agent WRs, Alshon Jeffery or Terrelle Pryor. There will be plenty of other veteran choices with size, however, including Vincent Jackson (like Cruz, his health is a concern), New Jersey native and ex-Rutgers star Kenny Britt, Kamar Aiken, Brandon LaFell, Brian Quick, Justin Hunter and Terrance Williams. Any of those players would be a good fit for the Giants, who would be better off signing a free agent than investing another high pick in a receiver after taking Beckham and Shepard in the top two rounds in two of the past three drafts.
On the other hand, the Giants haven’t selected a tight end prior to Round 3 since 2009. Their incumbent starter, Will Tye, has back-to-back 40-plus-catch seasons under his belt, but he’s not an impact player, evidenced by both his 8.2 yards-per-reception mark and third-worst ranking among Pro Football Focus’ qualified tight ends this season. As a result, the likes of O.J. Howard (Alabama), David Njoku (Miami) and Bucky Hodges (Virginia Tech) could be on the Giants’ radar during the first couple rounds of the draft. In free agency, the Patriots’ Martellus Bennett should at least pique New York’s interest if he reaches the open market.
In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Carolina Panthers, who fell to 6-10 this season after making a Super Bowl appearance in 2015.
1) Protect Cam Newton. Offensive tackle has seemingly been among the list of the Panthers’ needs since the 2014 offseason, when longtime blindside protector Jordan Gross announced his retirement. Problems have arisen on the right side, as well, and Carolina has run out the likes of Byron Bell, Nate Chandler, David Foucault, and Mike Remmers over the past several years in an effort to keep Cam Newton upright.
At present, Michael Oher is slated to return as the club’s left tackle. The 30-year-old was above-average in 2015, his first season with Carolina, and subsequently agreed to a three-year extension that locks him up through the 2019 campaign. Oher missed all but three games in 2016 while dealing with concussion issues, and there’s an outside chance he’s released this offseason (the Panthers would create $4.5MM in cap space by designating Oher a post-June 1 cut). On the right side, third-year pro Daryl Williams looks like the starter, as 16-game starter Mike Remmers is headed for unrestricted free agency.
Remmers shouldn’t be an offseason priority, especially given that he’s mostly been a disaster during his tenure with the Panthers. A combination of Oher and Williams can probably get by, but ideally, Carolina would try to find a new left tackle in the coming months, a move that would allow Oher to slide back to right tackle. That solution sounds like a doable plan in theory, but the 2017 class of offensive tackles is underwhelming, and Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com says that there isn’t a ton of first-round talent in the group.
Alabama’s Cam Robinson is considered the top prospect at the position, but even he comes with flaws that could cause him to fall past the top-10 picks. As Rob Rang of CBSSports.com notes, Robinson has faced off-field concerns (an arrest on weapons and drug charges which were ultimately dropped), while some observers doubt that he’ll be able to stay at left tackle. Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramczyk, Utah’s Garett Bolles, and Pittsburgh’s Adam Bisnowaty are among the other OTs who could potentially come off the board on Day 1. For what it’s worth, one scout recently told Matt Miller of Bleacher Report that Bolles is set to “shoot up” draft boards, and potentially overtake Robinson as the No. 1 tackle available.
The Panthers could also take a dip into free agency in its search for a new left tackle, a plan that isn’t out of the question given that the club is still very much in win-now mode. Still, given that options like Matt Kalil and Sebastian Vollmer wouldn’t represent an upgrade over Oher, Carolina would essentially be limited to two free agents: Andrew Whitworth or Riley Reiff. The Bengals likely want to re-sign Whitworth, but given that Cincinnati recently spent two high picks on tackles, a reunion is no sure thing. Whitworth has made it clear that he wants to remain at left tackle, and as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 2 rated tackle, he’d signify an improvement over Oher. Reiff, meanwhile, spent 2016 on the right side after the Lions drafted Taylor Decker, but he’d presumably relish an opportunity to move back to the blindside.
The interior of Carolina’s offensive line could also be addressed this offseason in the form of extensions, as guards Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner are heading into the final seasons of their rookie deals (Norwell is a restricted free agent and will be offered a tender). It’s unclear whether the Panthers will be able to retain both guards, or will even feel the need to do so — after all, Turner was a third-round choice while Norwell was an undrafted free agent, so perhaps the club is confident in its ability to unearth low-cost interior line talent. From the players’ point of view, Norwell and Turner may want to wait until free agents such as Kevin Zeitler and T.J. Lang set the guard market this spring before beginning negotiations.
According to the NFL’s contractual bargaining agreement, players drafted in rounds three though seven are entitled to raises during the fourth year of their respective rookie contracts. The pay bumps are tied to playing time — a player must have played in 35% of his team’s offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons, or averaged 35% playing time cumulatively during that period.
If one of these thresholds is met, the player’s salary is elevated to the level of that year’s lowest restricted free agent tender — that figure should be around $1.8MM in 2017. Players selected in the first or second round, undrafted free agents, and kickers/punters are ineligible for the proven performance escalator.
Here are the players who will see their salary rise in 2017 courtesy of the proven performance escalator:
49ers: Aaron Lynch, LB; Marcus Martin, OL
Bears: Charles Leno, T; Will Sutton, DT
Bengals: Russell Bodine, C
Bills: Preston Brown, LB; Seantrel Henderson, T
Broncos: Michael Schofield, OL
Browns: Christian Kirksey, LB
Buccaneers: Kevin Pamphile, G
Cardinals: John Brown, WR
Chiefs: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, G; Zach Fulton, G; Phillip Gaines, CB
Colts: Donte Moncrief, WR
Cowboys: Anthony Hitchens, LB
Falcons: Devonta Freeman, RB
Giants: Devon Kennard, LB
Jaguars: Aaron Colvin, CB; Brandon Linder, G; Telvin Smith, LB
Lions: Nevin Lawson, CB; Travis Swanson, C
Packers: Corey Linsley, C; Richard Rodgers, TE
Panthers: Tre Boston, S; Trai Turner, G
Raiders: T.J. Carrie, CB; Justin Ellis, DT; Gabe Jackson, G
Rams: Maurice Alexander, S; E.J. Gaines, CB
Redskins: Bashaud Breeland, CB; Spencer Long, G; Morgan Moses, T
Texans: C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE; Andre Hal, S
Titans: DaQuan Jones, DL; Avery Williamson, LB
Vikings: Shamar Stephen, DT
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff last week:
Even with the NFL in the midst of the postseason, the offseason is already underway, as five of the six coaching vacancies around the league have now been filled. As such, it’s worth looking ahead to the NFL’s offseason calendar for an idea of which dates will be more important during the next several weeks and months. With teams filling out their coaching staffs and preparing to make changes to rosters, there are plenty of days to circle on the calendar.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the NFL’s key offseason dates and deadlines:
This post is an edited version of a previous entry by PFR editor emeritus Luke Adams.
In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Tennessee Titans, who finished with a 9-7 record and narrowly missed out on the AFC South crown.
1) Build a new secondary: The Titans’ 2016 pass defense was, in a word, poor. Tennessee ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass and allowed the third-most yards in the league, finishing ahead of only the Saints and Packers in that regard. In the midst of a dismal year against opposing passers, the club even unloaded veteran cornerback Perrish Cox, who had just signed a three-year deal worth $15MM prior to the 2015 season. The Titans had evidently decided that dropping Cox and accepting $5MM in dead money in 2018 was preferable to demoting him to a lesser role.
The defensive back crew set to return in 2017 doesn’t offer much confidence, as none of Tennessee’s cornerbacks rated among the top 30 in the league last season, according to Pro Football Focus (2016 free agent acquisition Brice McCain earned the highest grade at No. 38). Antwon Blake, who did most of his work on special teams rather than the defensive side of the ball, is an unrestricted free agent, while Jason McCourty — the most high-profile of the Titans’ CBs — isn’t the player he once was. 2016 rookies Kalan Reed and LeShaun Sims, Curtis Riley, and D’Joun Smith currently comprise the rest of Tennessee’s projected cornerback depth chart.
Armed with more than $70MM in cap space (good for third in the NFL), the Titans have no excuse not to bring in a free agent corner this offseason, especially given that the market with be flush with options. The club’s No. 1 target should be the Texans’ A.J. Bouye, who graded out as the NFL’s second-best corner (per PFF) and will only be 26 years old when the 2017 campaign gets underway. Not only would Bouye give Tennessee the shutdown cornerback that its secondary so desperately needs, but the Titans would be severely weakening a division rival by poaching one of Houston’s best defensive players.
Of course, the Texans probably have no desire to let Bouye get away, and will likely employ the franchise tag if no long-term deal can be reached. Instead, one other interesting avenue for the Titans could be pursuing Patriots restricted free agent Malcolm Butler. New England will almost assuredly place a first-round RFA tender on Butler, meaning that any club that signs him away would have to part with a first-round pick to do so (while giving the Pats the right to match the agreed-to deal). One note on this potential scenario: The Titans would only be forced to relinquish the 18th overall pick to New England, not the fifth overall selection they acquired from the Rams.
A player such as Butler — one of the best cornerbacks in the league entering his age-27 season — is certainly worth the 18th pick in the draft, but the Titans would have to craft an offer sheet in such a way that the Patriots wouldn’t be able to match. That could be tough to do, especially since New England has nearly as much cap space (~$68MM) as Tennessee and has already traded away some of its impending free agents in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Additionally, most NFL clubs avoid the restricted free agent market given that it entails essentially negotiating a deal for another club to take advantage of. In other words, the Titans could spend valuable man hours putting in the hard work of talking numbers with Butler’s agent, only to have the Patriots swoop in and match the deal.
Admittedly, there are impediments to acquiring either Bouye or Butler, but there are other solid cornerbacks who should be available in the next few months. Trumaine Johnson, Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Morris Claiborne represent the best options on the free agent market, while Logan Ryan could also intrigue the Titans as a versatile second-tier corner. The draft offers another pipeline of cornerback talent, and the 18th pick is probably the area where Tennessee could target someone like Florida’s Teez Tabor, Alabama’s Marlon Humphrey, or the Ohio State duo of Marshon Lattimore or Gareon Conley.
Of course, cornerbacks aren’t the only part of a secondary — the Titans used a rotation at safety last season, with Kevin Byard, Daimion Stafford, Da’Norris Searcy, and Rashad Johnson all playing more than 500 defensive snaps. Both Stafford and Johnson are free agents, and Stafford should probably be the priority given that he’s a key part of Tennessee’s special teams unit. Byard, meanwhile, is a favorite of NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell, and should see an even larger role in 2017. If the Titans do want to add a top-notch safety early in the draft, there are seemingly two options: LSU’s Jamal Adams and Ohio State’s Malik Hooker.
