PFR Originals News & Rumors

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Arizona Cardinals

January 12th, 2017 at 9:48pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Arizona Cardinals, who finished with a 7-8-1 record despite being viewed as Super Bowl contenders when the season began.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending free agents:

Taylor Boggs, G
Calais Campbell, DE
Chandler Catanzaro, K (RFA)
Marcus Cooper, CB
Andre Ellington, RB
Darren Fells, TE (RFA)
Jermaine Gresham, TE
Tony Jefferson, S
Mike Jenkins, CB
Chris Johnson, RB
Chandler Jones, LB/DE
Kevin Minter, LB
Sio Moore, LB
Alex Okafor, LB
Jeremy Ross, WR
Frostee Rucker, DE
A.Q. Shipley, C
D.J. Swearinger, S
Stepfan Taylor, RB
Earl Watford, G

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Carson Palmer, QB: $24,125,000
Larry Fitzgerald, WR: $15,850,000
Patrick Peterson, CB: $13,706,965
Jared Veldheer, T: $10,250,000
Mike Iupati, G: $9,700,000
Tyrann Mathieu, DB: $8,100,000
Daryl Washington, LB: $7,170,000
Justin Bethel, CB: $5,250,000
Tyvon Branch, S: $4,500,000
Drew Stanton, QB: $4,000,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $38,024,121
13th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for LB Deone Bucannon

Three Needs:

1) Add a cornerback to play opposite Patrick Peterson: On the whole, the Cardinals’ defense was extremely effective in 2016. The unit — led by second-year coordinator James Bettcher — finished first in sacks, second in both DVOA and yards, third in adjusted sack rate, and fourth in takeaways. The one true weakness on the defensive side of the ball, however, was at the cornerback spot opposite Patrick Peterson, where Arizona ranked 27th in DVOA against opposing No. 2 receivers. As such, finding a reliable second cornerback should be atop the Cardinals’ list of priorities this offseason.

Arizona thought it had an option to play second fiddle to Peterson when it selected Brandon Williams in the third round of last year’s draft. Williams, who converted from running back to cornerback in the summer of 2015, was immediately inserted into the Cardinals’ starting lineup in Week 1 against the Patriots and was immediately — and, perhaps, predictably — torched. Williams played 100% of Arizona’s defensive snaps in the season opener (71 plays), but only played 169 snaps the rest of the season, mostly at the tail end of the campaign after the Cards had been eliminated from postseason contention. The 24-year-old Williams clearly has room to grow and should be allowed the time do so, but it will be difficult for Arizona to count on him as a starting defensive back in 2017.

Following Williams’ public flagellation against New England, trade acquisition Marcus Cooper moved into the starting lineup and stayed there, playing more than three-quarters of the Cards’ snaps on the season. Cooper managed four interceptions but didn’t grade well according to Pro Football Focus, which ranked Cooper as the No. 108 cornerback among 120 qualifiers. Now a free agent, Cooper would be better deployed as a depth option if re-signed, joining Justin Bethel — whose short-lived stint in the starting lineup was deemed a “failure in progress” by head coach Bruce Arians — Williams, and 2016 rookie Harlan Miller in that capacity.

Luckily for the Cardinals, both the free agent market and the upcoming draft are full of intriguing cornerback options. When the new league year begins in early March, it’s possible that A.J. Bouye, Trumaine Johnson, Stephon Gilmore, and Dre Kirkpatrick could all hit free agency (although, one or more of those defensive backs could be tied up via the franchise tag). That quartet will be searching for top-of-the-market deals, however, and given that Arizona has pressing contract issues in the form of internal free agents Chandler Jones, Calais Campbell, and Kevin Minter, the club will probably stay away from elite level options this spring.

Instead, the Cardinals could look at second-tier cornerbacks, and perhaps follow the model they used in 2014 when agreeing to a cheap one-year deal with veteran defensive back Antonio Cromartie, who rebounded off a few poor seasons to post a solid year in the desert. Chris Culliver could be a candidate for such a deal this offseason, as the 28-year-old is back on the free agent market after spending time on the Dolphins’ roster last year. Given that he visited with the Cards last summer before signing with Miami, Culliver might intrigue the club once again as a bounce-back player. Other corners who may interest Arizona could include Morris Claiborne, Nolan Carroll, Logan Ryan, and old friend Jerraud Powers.

If the Cardinals don’t find what they’re looking for during the free agent period, the draft will offer the team its next opportunity to find a No. 2 corner. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com tweeted this week that the 2017 draft offers the “deepest/most talented group of CBs” in years, meaning that Arizona should be able to locate either an elite talent near the top of the draft, or a depth piece in the mid rounds. Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State), Teez Tabor (Florida), Marlon Humphrey (Alabama), Quincy Wilson (Florida), and Tre’Davious White (LSU) comprise the top five available corners in the estimation of ESPN.com’s Mel Kiper Jr. (Insider subscription required), who places the first three among his top 25 overall prospects.

2) Acquire a true No. 1 receiver: Veteran pass-catcher Larry Fitzgerald has seemingly flirted with retirement during each of the past few offseasons, and this year is no different, as Fitzgerald is reportedly considering hanging up his cleats despite signing an extension last August. If the 33-year-old Fitzgerald does decide to call it a career, the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart would be topped by the likes of John Brown, JJ Nelson, a recovering Jaron Brown, and special-teamer Brittan Golden (if you’ll recall, Arizona waived WR Michael Floyd at the tail end of the season, but he would have been a free agent anyway). Do those receivers represent enough weaponry for quarterback Carson Palmer to operate a Bruce Arians offense that relies on the intermediate-to-deep passing game?

The answer is probably no, and even if Fitzgerald returns for the 2017 campaign, the Cards should still aim to add another receiver to the roster. Fitzgerald has essentially become a glorified tight end in recent years, an excellent blocker who runs routes over the middle of the field. John Brown and Nelson, meanwhile, are both under six feet tall and 180 pounds, and their respective small statures may have played a role in nagging injuries that limited each of them throughout the season. Floyd, at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, was the closest thing Arizona had to a prototypically sized No. 1 pass-catcher in the past few seasons, but even he never produced a true breakout season during four-plus seasons with the team.

Ironically, Floyd is exactly the type of receiver the Cardinals should be targeting in free agency, but a reunion between the two clubs is not going to happen after Floyd was unceremoniously dumped following a DUI. Outside of Floyd, there are only two receivers available on the open market that offer No. 1-type potential: the Bears’ Alshon Jeffery and the Browns’ Terrelle Pryor. Personally, I have my doubts that Pryor is fully ready to become the primary option in a high-powered offense, but I would also expect him to get higher bids than Arizona would be comfortable matching.

Jeffery, meanwhile, is the premier pass-catcher available during the upcoming free agent period, and ranked third on the most recent edition of PFR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Jeffery doesn’t turn 27 years old until next month, and given that he’s been a dominant force when healthy, he’d make for an excellent addition to the Cardinals’ offense. Still, that could be said for a multitude of offenses around the NFL, meaning Jeffery’s price tag could get quite high. Chicago, too, has the option of franchising Jeffery for the second consecutive season — albeit at a cost north of $17.5MM — so he’s not a guarantee to hit the open market.

One other option that might intrigue the Cardinals is Redskins free agent DeSean Jackson, who is set to become a free agent after earning $8MM annually during three seasons in the nation’s capital. Jackson, 30, is listed at 5-foot-10, 178 pounds, so he’s certainly not the big-bodied receiver that I lobbied for above. However, he does possess one talent which would surely draw Arians’ eye: he can get deep. In 2016, Jackson led the league in yards per reception for the third time in his career, averaging 17.9 yards per catch. That’s a skill that would pay dividends in Arizona’s deep passing offense, and Jackson should be available for less than what he earned with Washington.

If the Cardinals strike out during free agency, they’ll be able to target wide receivers through the draft. They could use the 13th overall selection to bring in one of several pass-catchers who project to go in the first round. Mike Williams — not to be confused with the two former pro receivers of the same name — is set to become the latest Clemson WR to be chosen on Day 1 of the draft, following in the footsteps of DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins. Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of CBSSports.com list Williams as the No. 1 receiver available in 2017, noting that he appears as though he was “constructed with an NFL-starter kit.” USC’s JuJu Smith-Schuster and Western Michigan’s Corey Davis are among the other first-round options that could make sense for Arizona.

3) Start thinking about Carson Palmer‘s replacement: In 2015, at the age of 36, Carson Palmer posted best season of his career, leading the league in a variety of metrics including Total Quarterback Rating and net yards per pass attempt while placing himself squarely in the MVP conversation. Those results didn’t hold in 2016, however, as Palmer’s Total QBR fell from 82.15 to 52.8, his touchdown percentage dropped from 6.5 to 4.4, and his net yards per attempt went from 8.41 to 6.03. To be fair, Palmer’s 2016 numbers weren’t terrible, and were largely in line with his career statistics prior to that magical 2015 campaign.

But Palmer’s 2015 season now looks like an outlier, and given that he’ll turn 38 years old during the 2017 campaign, the Cardinals need to begin their search for a long-term replacement at quarterback. Extended along with Larry Fitzgerald last summer, Palmer is now locked up through the 2018 season, but Arizona could easily get out of the contract if the rapidity of Palmer’s downward spiral increases. Additionally, rumors that backup Drew Stanton could take over once Palmer retires don’t make much sense, given that Stanton is only signed through 2017 and is already 32 years old himself.

Free agency typically isn’t the place for a club to find a developmental quarterback, and the 2017 crop of available players is no different. The only possible option I could see the Cardinals pursuing is Buccaneers backup Mike Glennon, a big-armed QB who could fit in Bruce Arians‘ offense. However, there are numerous impediments to Glennon landing in the desert. After years as a No. 2, Glennon likely wants to compete for a starting job immediately, something he wouldn’t do in Arizona. Additionally, Adam Schefter of ESPN.com recently pegged Glennon’s value at $13-15MM annually, a price the Cards won’t pay. Glennon’s market would have to crater, and he’d have to accept being a backup for at least another year, before a match between he and Arizona makes financial sense.

As such, the draft looks like the most realistic avenue through which the Cardinals can locate a long-term answer at quarterback. Despite a disappointing season in 2016, however, Arizona is still in win-now mode, and given the other immediate needs on the roster, the club is unlikely to expend an early pick on a signal-caller. Given that, top-tier options such as Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Brad Kaaya, and Patrick Mahomes — all of whom should go off the board in the first two rounds — seem like unpalatable options.

Unfortunately, mid-round candidates are not aplenty, as Todd McShay of ESPN.com recently wrote that the 2017 quarterback class is “as bad…as [he] can remember.” The one QB who could seemingly be a fit for the Cardinals is Cal’s Davis Webb, whom McShay reports has “good size and a big arm.” ESPN’s scouting report says Tull “rarely misses on passes between the hashes” and possesses a “high release point and gets the ball out quickly,” but is “not an elite athlete” and has “question[able] ability to sidestep interior pressure.” Remind you of anyone? To me, that description sounds like a young Carson Palmer.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Minnesota Vikings

January 11th, 2017 at 10:03pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. This edition will focus on the Minnesota Vikings, who entered the 2016 season as the defending NFC North champions and ended it with eight wins and a third-place finish in the division.

The Vikings began the year in an adverse situation on account of the devastating knee injury quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered at the end of August. Bridgewater sat out all of 2016 as a result, though the Vikings’ quarterback production was steady without him. That output came at a significant cost, however, as the Vikings reacted to Bridgewater’s injury by sending multiple draft picks – including their first-rounder this year – to the Eagles for Sam Bradford prior to Week 1. At the helm of a conservative passing attack, Bradford tossed 20 touchdowns against just five interceptions and set an NFL record with a 71.6 percent completion rate.

Given both Bradford’s decent performance and Bridgewater’s uncertain health, Minnesota is planning on going into 2017 with the former under center. General manager Rick Spielman will of course have to supplement the talent around Bradford to get the team back to the playoffs next season, and that task will obviously be more difficult without a first-rounder. Spielman does have eight other picks at his disposal, though, and the Vikings aren’t at risk of losing a slew of crucial contributors from 2016 to free agency.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Matt Asiata, RB
Audie Cole, LB
Rhett Ellison, TE
Chad Greenway, LB
Mike Harris, G/T
Shaun Hill, QB
Charles Johnson, WR (RFA)
Matt Kalil, LT
Zac Kerin, LG (ERFA)
Zach Line, FB
Jeff Locke, P
Jake Long, LT
Captain Munnerlyn, CB
Terence Newman, CB
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR/KR
Jeremiah Sirles, LT (ERFA)
Andre Smith, RT
Adam Thielen, WR (RFA)
Justin Trattou, DE

Top 10 Cap Hits For 2017:

Adrian Peterson, RB: $18,000,000
Sam Bradford, QB: $17,000,000
Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
Xavier Rhodes, CB: $8,026,000
Harrison Smith, S: $7,500,000
Linval Joseph, DT: $6,850,000
Kyle Rudolph, TE: $6,800,000
Sharrif Floyd, DT: $6,757,000
Alex Boone, LG: $6,700,000
Brian Robison, DE: $6,600,000

Current Projected Cap Room (via Over the Cap): $23,437,353

Other:

No first-round pick
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year options for LB Anthony Barr and QB Teddy Bridgewater

1.) Repair the offensive line: The Vikings’ offensive line finished the season as Football Outsiders’ 30th-ranked group after clearing the way for an NFL-low 3.2 yards-per-carry average and allowing the league’s 10th-most sacks (38). Injuries were a major part of the problem, particularly at tackle, as Matt Kalil, Andre Smith and Jake Long missed most of the year. All three of those players are scheduled to become free agents this offseason, leaving Minnesota without an obvious solution at either tackle spot. T.J. Clemmings remains under contract after leading Vikings linemen with 882 snaps, but he also ranked as Pro Football Focus’ third-worst tackle. Exclusive rights free agent Jeremiah Sirles racked up significant on-field time, too, with 772 snaps, though he wasn’t particularly effective (49th among PFF’s 81 qualified tackle). While Clemmings and Sirles could again serve as depth next season, the Vikings are going to have to do something about both starting spots.

Of Kalil, Smith and Long, all are expendable when considering their performances, but the latter two seem especially likely to depart. Minnesota’s decision to sign Smith to a one-year deal last March wasn’t panning out even before he succumbed to an elbow injury a few weeks into the season. And the Vikings didn’t add Long until October, which only happened because Kalil and Smith went on injured reserve. Long then suffered a torn Achilles in November, potentially ending the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s career.

Kalil, who started 66 straight games prior to suffering a season-ending hip injury in Week 2, has been a staple with the Vikings since they drafted him fourth overall in 2012. However, he has struggled since a quality rookie year, meaning the Vikes could stand to upgrade over him. The problem is that they might have a hard time doing that via the draft, which doesn’t feature a deep tackle class (again, no first-rounder hurts). Free agency is rather light on left tackles, too – despite his age (35), longtime Bengal Andrew Whitworth is easily the best of a weak lot and would be a more-than-capable stopgap for Minnesota. It’s worth noting that Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer previously worked as the Bengals’ defensive coordinator from 2008-13, so he’s quite familiar with Whitworth.

Meanwhile, unless he re-signs with Jacksonville before March, Luke Joeckel will represent another option. He’s all too similar to Kalil, though, as both a high pick (No. 2 in 2013) who hasn’t lived up to his draft stock and someone who’s coming off an injury-shortened year. Longtime NFC North rival Riley Reiff isn’t great, either, but the five-year Lion does bring vast experience at both tackle spots and has started 14-plus games in four straight seasons.

Shifting to the right side, the Ravens’ Ricky Wagner stands out as the top soon-to-be free agent blocker. The 27-year-old has logged 14 or more starts in each of the past three seasons, and he ranked as PFF’s 19th-best tackle in 2016. Mike Remmers (Panthers), Austin Pasztor (Browns), Sebastian Vollmer (Patriots), Jordan Mills (Bills) and Marshall Newhouse (Giants) have also amassed plenty of experience, but it’s debatable whether any would be clear upgrades over what the Vikings already have. At the very least, any could act as competition to the Vikes’ in-house options. Vollmer and Bell did miss all of 2016, however, which could preclude Minnesota from kicking the tires on either after injuries ravaged its line during the season.

Moving inside, the Vikings might not feel the need to do anything major with left guard Alex Boone, center Joe Berger and right guard Brandon Fusco in place. Fusco is somewhat of a weak link, though, as he ranked 62nd among PFF’s 74 qualified guards in 2016. Therefore, the team could try to upgrade over him with a free agent like T.J. Lang (Packers), Kevin Zeitler (Bengals; again, there’s a Zimmer connection), John Jerry (Giants), Larry Warford (Lions) or Brian Winters (Jets). The Vikings might otherwise bring back key 2015 cog Mike Harris, who missed all of this season with an undisclosed illness but is optimistic about his recovery.

2.) Get Adrian Peterson to take a pay cut: As mentioned earlier, the Vikings had the worst ground game in the league this season. It didn’t help that they got a mere 37 carries from Peterson, a seven-time Pro Bowler who tore his meniscus in Week 2 and only played once more after that (six attempts on Dec. 18). Peterson averaged a paltry 1.9 yards per carry during his limited action, which would be less concerning going forward if not for both his injury and age (32 in March). A return to the upper echelon isn’t out of the question for Peterson, who’s not far removed from winning the league’s rushing title in 2015, but even a bounce back wouldn’t make his 2017 salary or cap figure palatable.

Peterson is slated to rake in $11.75MM and count $18MM against the Vikings’ cap next year, and he admitted earlier this month that he’ll probably have to accept a pay reduction to remain with the only franchise he has known since entering the league in 2007.

“There’s the reality that there comes a point in time where, yeah, the best thing to do is take a pay cut, and it might be in the best interest of the team, as well,” he told Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press.

If the Vikings do retain Peterson, they should use free agency or the draft to look for a better reserve than the ones they deployed in 2016. On a combined 280 carries as the primary fill-ins for Peterson, Jerick McKinnon and free agent-to-be Matt Asiata averaged a disastrous 3.3 yards per attempt. In-season signing Ronnie Hillman was even worse on a rate basis (2.8 YPC), though he only netted 18 rushes.

Releasing Peterson would put the Vikings in the market for a new No. 1 back, and there are only a few on the way to free agency in Eddie Lacy (Packers), LeGarrette Blount (Patriots) and Latavius Murray (Raiders). Le’Veon Bell is the premier rusher without a contract for 2017, but Pittsburgh isn’t going to let him walk. Although the Chiefs seem likely to cut four-time Pro Bowler Jamaal Charles after the season – which would give the Vikings another choice – he has only played eight games the past two years because of knee problems.

3.) Make a decision on Sharrif Floyd‘s future: Minnesota had one of the league’s most formidable defenses in 2016, finishing with upper-tier rankings in yardage (third), sacks (fifth), scoring (sixth) and DVOA (ninth). Impressively, it managed that success without the eminently talented Floyd, a three-technique tackle who played 25 snaps in Week 1 and then didn’t take the field again for the rest of the season. When Floyd underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in late September, the expectation was that he’d return at some point during the year. The Vikings finally abandoned hope on that possibility when they placed Floyd on IR on Dec. 12, and Zimmer sounded somewhat fed up with the 25-year-old over his lost season.

“I’m not going to assess him to the media,” Zimmer said (via Matthew Coller of 1500 ESPN). “I’ll assess him to Rick [Spielman] when we sit down and talk.”

Injuries aren’t anything new for Floyd, who hasn’t registered a 16-game season since 2013 – his rookie campaign – and has sat out a total of 20 games going back to his second year. Floyd has been mostly outstanding when healthy, but if the Vikings decide they’re ready to go in another direction, releasing him would save the team his entire cap number – $6,757,000 – in 2017. At the same time, it would leave the Vikes with a sizable hole adjacent to standout D-tackle Linval Joseph. Shamar Stephen handled the bulk of the work in Floyd’s stead this season, but he was overmatched across 551 snaps, grading as PFF’s 13th-worst tackle among 125 qualifiers. Tom Johnson was far better (47th, per PFF), though he’s mostly an option in passing situations.

Should the Vikings wave goodbye to Floyd, free agent possibilities could include Kawann Short (Panthers), Bennie Logan (Eagles), Abry Jones (Jaguars), Alan Branch (Patriots) and Domata Peko (Bengals), among others. While Short would be the ideal option, odds are the Panthers will either re-sign or place the franchise tag on him; Logan and Jones, meanwhile, each have three-technique experience; and Zimmer coached Peko in Cincinnati. Peko, for what it’s worth, spoke glowingly of Zimmer last August (via Coley Harvey of ESPN.com).

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Cleveland Browns

January 10th, 2017 at 6:17pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Cleveland Browns, who finished 1-15 in 2016, narrowly avoiding a winless season.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending free agents:

George Atkinson III, RB (ERFA)
Marcus Burley, CB (RFA)
Jamie Collins, LB
Britton Colquitt, P
Isaiah Crowell, RB (RFA)
Josh Gordon, WR (RFA)
Rannell Hall, WR (ERFA)
Charley Hughlett, LS (ERFA)
Jamie Meder, DE (ERFA)
Rajion Neal, RB (ERFA)
Dennis Parks, WR (ERFA)
Stephen Paea, DL
Austin Pasztor, OL
Jordan Poyer, CB
Terrelle Pryor, WR
Glenn Winston, RB (RFA)
Dylan Wynn, DE (ERFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Joe Haden, CB: $14,400,000
Joe Thomas, T: $10,000,000
Robert Griffin III, QB: $9,250,000
Tramon Williams, CB: $7,500.000
Josh McCown, QB: $5,041,668
Demario Davis, LB: $4,800,000
Desmond Bryant, DL: $4,000,000
Gary Barnidge, TE: $3,812,500
Jamar Taylor, CB: $3,275,000
Danny Shelton, DT: $3,191,910

Other:

Projected 2017 cap space (via Over the Cap): $110,438,388
First and twelfth overall pick in draft

Three Needs:

1) Find a franchise quarterback: The image has reached near immortal status on the internet: a Browns fan donning a jersey listing the litany of quarterbacks that have led the club since it returned to Cleveland in 1999, beginning with Tim Couch and Ty Detmer and concluding with the likes of Johnny Manziel and Robert Griffin III. 26 signal-callers have made at least one start for the Browns during that stretch, yet Cleveland is still searching for a franchise quarterback as the calendar turns to 2017.

Upgrading under center should be a primary goal for the Browns this offseason, as their current depth chart at the position is wholly uninspiring. Griffin is signed through the 2017 campaign, and Cleveland executive Sashi Brown said last September that the club doesn’t view RGIII as simply a short-term solution. However, Griffin started only five games in 2016 while dealing with injuries, and wasn’t overly effective when he was on the field, completing less than 60% of his passes while posting a Total Quarterback Rating of just 33. The Browns could clear $7.5MM in salary cap space by releasing Griffin this offseason, and while Cleveland certainly doesn’t need any extra cap room, the team should at least approach Griffin about a paycut.

Elsewhere on the roster, veteran Josh McCown is not part of the Browns’ long-term future (and is now considering retirement), leaving 2016 third-round pick Cody Kessler as the lone remaining option of intrigue. Thrown into the fire perhaps before he was ready, Kessler performed relatively well, tossing six touchdowns against two interceptions while managing a Total QBR of nearly 50. Kessler isn’t a star, but his display of competency during his rookie season indicates that he could carve out a career as a high-end backup, and offer the upside of a poor man’s Andy Dalton.

So even with Kessler in tow, the Browns are still in the market for another quarterback, and free agency could be the first place the club turns in its hunt. While Cleveland could take a flier on a QB such as Mike Glennon, EJ Manuel, or Ryan Nassib, it’s not readily apparent than any of those options would offer a substantial improvement on the Browns’ internal choices. Washington’s Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, would represent a significant upgrade at the quarterback position, but the Redskins are extremely unlikely to let their QB hit the open market. Recent reports have indicated Washington won’t hesitate to use the franchise tag on Cousins for a second consecutive year, but if he does reach free agency, the Browns would likely be a prime contender for his services.

The draft, then, offers the best chance for Cleveland to secure a long-term option at quarterback, and while draft analysts posit that no “sure-thing” signal-caller exists in the 2017 class, this year’s crop of prospects does include some first-round QB candidates. The Browns reportedly “love” UNC’s Mitch Trubisky, and having scouted him in recent weeks, could use the first overall pick on the Tarheel quarterback. If Cleveland opts to go in another direction at No. 1, the club could look at Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer (whom Browns scout Lake Dawson has spent an “inordinate” amount of time watching) or Clemson’s Deshaun Watson with the twelfth selection.

2) Use ample cap space to retain key free agents: The Browns will head into the offseason with — by far — the most cap space in the league, with their ~$110MM in room dwarfing the second-place 49ers by more than $30MM. And Cleveland could still create more space! By releasing, for example, Robert Griffin III, Tramon Williams, Josh McCown, and Alvin Bailey, the Browns would push their allotment of cap room north of $130MM. As such, external free agents should become more of a priority for the Browns in 2017 (the club was reportedly reticent in FA negotiations last offseason), but the key focus should remain on two internal free agents: wide receiver Terrelle Pryor and linebacker Jamie Collins.

Pryor, 27, was one of the more fascinating stories in the NFL last season, as he completed his conversion from quarterback to wide receiver by putting up 77 receptions for 1,007 yards and four touchdowns. Pryor has emphasized that he’d like to remain in Cleveland (and specifically, continue to play under head coach Hue Jackson), and the Browns have reportedly begun contract negotiations with its pass-catcher. However, the prospect of free agency also looms, and Pryor has indicated that a reunion is not guaranteed. “[A]t the end of the day, it’s got to come down to what my agents think is right for me,” Pryor said last month.

Given fellow free agent Alshon Jeffery‘s myriad of injury issues and recent four-gamed PED suspension, it’s entirely possible that Pryor will be the most coveted receiver available on the open market in March. Pryor and his representatives will likely look to recent contracts signed by receivers such as Allen Hurns, Emmanuel Sanders, Doug Baldwin, and Keenan Allen, and conclude that Pryor should target an annual salary in the $10-12MM range. If no deal is reached, the Browns would have the option of using the franchise tag on Pryor, locking him up to a one-year deal worth nearly $16MM.

If Cleveland is forced to employ the franchise tag on Pryor, it would lose a great deal of leverage in contract talks with fellow pending free agent Jamie Collins, whom the Browns acquired from the Patriots last year. Clearly, signing one of Pryor or Collins before the franchise tag deadline would represent an ideal solution, and afford the Browns the opportunity to use the tag on the player who remains unsigned. The franchise tag for Collins would be a bit cheaper than Pryor’s wide receiver figure, as linebackers will only earn $14.754MM under the tag.

Collins remains open to staying in Cleveland if the “money is right,” but the franchise tag might be the better route for the Browns given Collins’ previously reported contract demands. Before being dealt by the Patriots, Collins apparently turned down $11MM per annum from New England, and is now aiming to top Luke Kuechly‘s $12.36MM annual salary. Guaranteed money will obviously place a large role in negotiations, but if Collins’ asking price remains excessive, the Browns should simply opt for the franchise tag route. After sacrificing either a third- or fourth-round pick for Collins, Cleveland can’t afford to let him get away via free agency.

3) Continue to stockpile draft capital: The majority of early mock drafts project the Browns to take Texas A&M pass rusher Myles Garrett with the first overall pick, and while Cleveland has reportedly placed an “astronomical grade” on the Aggie linebacker, it’s fair to wonder if the Browns should reprise their 2016 draft strategy and trade down, acquiring a bevy of extra picks in the process. In their two deals involving first-rounders last year, for example, the Browns received 175 cents and 148 cents on the dollar, respectively, a haul that Cleveland would surely be pleased to reap once again.

Of course, the Browns are already in fine position for this year’s draft, as they hold eight picks in total, including two in each of the first two rounds. Additionally, Nick Korte of Over the Cap projects Cleveland will receive fourth- and fifth-round compensatory selections (in addition to two more comp picks that have already been traded). But given that the Browns have a claim to the worst roster in the NFL (with only the 49ers coming close in terms of a dearth of talent), the club should be trying to take as many bites at the apple as possible, rather than placing its bets on a few top picks.

If EVP of football operations Sashi Brown and chief strategy office Paul DePodesta remain the Browns’ key decision-makers, Cleveland will likely employ a similar approach to 2016, when the club ultimately acquired 14 draft picks, three more than any other team. But despite Browns owner Jimmy Haslam claiming there would be no changes to club leadership, head coach Hue Jackson is reportedly pushing for Cleveland to hire a formal general manager, and has already compiled a list of candidates for the position. From my vantage point, it’s possible that Jackson would feel more comfortable with a less analytical front office calling the shots, and if a more “old-school” GM is in fact hired, the Browns may not be so quick to trade down in the draft.

2017 Offensive/Defensive Coordinator Tracker

January 9th, 2017 at 6:42pm CST by Zachary Links

While at least six NFL teams are making head coaching changes this offseason, the number of clubs replacing offensive and/or defensive coordinators figures to be much higher than that. In addition to all those teams hiring new head coaches, who may want to bring in their own assistants, several clubs also figure to make changes on one side of the ball or the other after getting disappointing results in 2016. And, of course, the teams whose coordinators landed head coaching jobs will need to replace them.

With reports circulating on potential candidates, interview requests, and actual meetings, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the latest updates on teams hiring new offensive and/or defensive coordinators. This post, which will be updated daily, can be found under the “PFR Features” menu on the right-hand side of the site.

Updated 2-13-17 (2:30pm CT)

Offensive Coordinators

Atlanta Falcons (Out: Kyle Shanahan)

Steve Sarkisian, offensive assistant coach (Alabama): Hired
Chip Kelly, former head coach (49ers): Falcons have expressed interest
Matt LaFleur, quarterbacks coach (Falcons): Viewed as candidate
Mike McDaniel, offensive assistant (Falcons): Viewed as candidate

Buffalo Bills (Out: Anthony Lynn)

Rick Dennison, former offensive coordinator (Broncos): Hired
Brad Childress, co-offensive coordinator (Chiefs): Viewed as a top candidate; out of running?
Ken Dorsey, quarterbacks coach (Panthers): Interviewed
Greg Olson, former offensive coordinator (Jaguars): Interviewed
Mike McCoy, former head coach (Chargers): Viewed as likely choice

Denver Broncos (Out: Rick Dennison)

Mike McCoy, former head coach (Chargers): Hired
Bill Musgrave, former offensive coordinator (Raiders): Interviewed; named QBs coach

Houston Texans (HC Bill O’Brien will call plays, replacing George Godsey)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Nathaniel Hackett, interim offensive coordinator (Jaguars): Hired
Chip Kelly, former head coach (49ers): Interviewed

Los Angeles Rams (Out: Rob Boras)

Matt LaFleur, quarterbacks coach (Falcons): Hired
Bill Callahan, offensive line coach (Redskins): Mentioned as possible candidate
Chris Foerster, offensive line coach (Dolphins): Interview requested, permission denied

New York Jets (Out: Chan Gailey)

John Morton, wide receivers coach (Saints): Hired
George Godsey, former offensive coordinator (Texans): Could interview
Matt Nagy, co-offensive coordinator (Chiefs): Mentioned as possible candidate
John DeFilippo, quarterbacks coach (Eagles): Interview requested, permission denied
Mike McCoy, former head coach (Chargers): Mentioned as possible candidate
Eric Studesville, Running backs coach (Broncos): Interviewed, withdrew from consideration

Oakland Raiders (Hired/Promoted: Todd Downing, replacing Bill Musgrave)

Washington Redskins (Hired/Promoted: Matt Cavanaugh, replacing Sean McVay)

Defensive Coordinators

Atlanta Falcons (Out: Richard Smith)

Marquand Manuel, secondary coach (Falcons): Hired
Jerome Henderson, pass game coordinator (Falcons): Mentioned as candidate
Raheem Morris, wide receivers coach (Falcons): Mentioned as candidate
Jeff Ulbrich, linebackers coach (Falcons): Mentioned as candidate

Buffalo Bills

Leslie Frazier, defensive backs coach (Ravens): Hired
Al Holcomb, linebackers coach (Panthers): Viewed as frontrunner

Carolina Panthers (Hired/Promoted Steve Wilks, replacing Sean McDermott)

Cleveland Browns (Hired: Gregg Williams, replacing Ray Horton)

Wade Phillips, defensive coordinator (Broncos): Contacted about job

Denver Broncos (Out: Wade Phillips)

Joe Woods, defensive backs coach (Broncos): Hired
Reggie Herring, linebackers coach (Broncos): To be interviewed

Houston Texans (Hired/Promoted Mike Vrabel, replacing Romeo Crennel, who was named assistant head coach)

Los Angeles Chargers (Out: John Pagano)

Gus Bradley, former head coach (Jaguars): Hired
Ron Milus, defensive backs coach (Chargers): Would have been hired if Bradley went elsewhere

Los Angeles Rams (Out: Gregg Williams)

Wade Phillips, defensive coordinator (Broncos): Hired

Miami Dolphins (Hired/Promoted: Matt Burke, replacing Vance Joseph)

San Francisco 49ers (Hired: Robert Saleh, Out: Jim O’Neil)

Robert Saleh, former linebackers coach (Jaguars): Hired
Brian Flores, linebackers coach (Patriots): Mentioned as candidate
Jerome Henderson, pass game coordinator (Falcons): Interviewed
Vic Fangio, defensive coordinator (Bears): Expressed interest, move blocked by Bears
Gus Bradley, former head coach (Jaguars): Mentioned as candidate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Signed Mike Smith to extension; Smith withdrew name from Chargers’ HC search)

Washington Redskins (Out: Joe Barry)

Greg Manusky, outside linebackers coach (Redskins): Hired
John Pagano, defensive coordinator (Chargers): To be interviewed
Mike Pettine, former head coach (Browns): Interviewed
Rob Ryan, former assistant head coach/defense (Bills): Interviewed
Jason Tarver, linebackers coach (49ers): To be interviewed
Dennis Thurman, former defensive coordinator (Bills): To be interviewed
Gus Bradley, former head coach (Jaguars): Hired by Chargers
Romeo Crennel, assistant head coach (Texans): Denied permission to interview
Paul Guenther, defensive coordinator (Bengals): Denied permission to interveiew
Steve Wilks, AHC/DB coach (Panthers): Interview requested, promoted by Panthers

2017 NFL GM Search Tracker

January 9th, 2017 at 4:41pm CST by Zachary Links

Two clubs — the Colts and 49ers — are now looking for new general managers. We’ll keep track of all developments related to those two vacancies in this post. It can be found on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.”

Listed below are the GM candidates that have been linked to Indianapolis and San Francisco, along with their current status. Here’s the current breakdown:

Updated 1-29-17 (8:30pm CT)

Indianapolis Colts

Chris Ballard, director of player personnel (Chiefs): Hired
Scott Fitterer, co-director of player personnel (Seahawks): Interviewed
Trent Kirchner, co-director of player personnel (Seahawks): Interviewed
George Paton, assistant GM (Vikings): Interviewed
Jimmy Raye III, vice president of football operations (Colts): Interviewed; considered favorite
Eliot Wolf, director of football operations (Packers): Interviewed scheduled
Eric DeCosta, assistant GM (Ravens): Interview requested
Peyton Manning, former NFL quarterback: Mentioned as candidate

San Francisco 49ers

John Lynch, FOX analyst: Hired
Terry McDonough, vice president of player personnel (Cardinals): Interviewed; will interview again
George Paton, assistant GM (Vikings): Interviewed; will interview again
Chris Polian, director of player personnel (Jaguars): Mentioned as candidate
Nick Polk, director of football operations (Falcons): Mentioned as candidate
Eliot Wolf, director of football operations (Packers): Interviewed; withdrew from search
Chris Ballard, director of player personnel (Chiefs): Interview request denied by KC
Brandon Beane, assistant general manager, (Panthers): Interviewed; no longer a candidate
Nick Caserio, director of player personnel (Patriots): Caserio declined interview
Scott Fitterer, co-director of player personnel (Seahawks): Interviewed; no longer a candidate
Brian Gutekunst, director of college scouting (Packers): Interviewed; considered frontrunner; withdrew from search
Trent Kirchner, co-director of player personnel (Seahawks): Interviewed; withdrew from search
Jimmy Raye III, vice president of football operations (Colts): Interviewed; no longer a candidate
Louis Riddick, ESPN analyst: Interviewed; no longer a candidate

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Denver Broncos

January 8th, 2017 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Denver Broncos, who finished 9-7 in 2016 and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

For the second time in three years, the Broncos need a new coach, with unusual circumstances creating this vacancy. Gary Kubiak‘s retirement came suddenly after the defending Super Bowl champions played a rare inconsequential Week 17 game. But even though the two-year Denver HC would have certainly returned for a third season if he felt he was healthy enough to do so, the team has several key areas of need for the first time in a while. The Broncos for years featured a top-tier quarterback and a quality supporting cast, and over the past three seasons have formed the nucleus of one of the better defenses in modern NFL history. Denver’s defense still functioned at an elite level in 2016, ranking No. 1 in DVOA, but it couldn’t compensate for an offense with glaring deficiencies. No matter which coach the Broncos hire, offense will be the primary concentration this offseason.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Sam Brenner, C/G (RFA)
Todd Davis, LB (RFA)
Justin Forsett, RB
Thomas Gafford, LS
Brandon McManus, K (RFA)
Jordan Norwood, WR
Vance Walker, DE
DeMarcus Ware, LB
Dekoda Watson, LB
Kayvon Webster, CB
Sylvester Williams, DT

Top 10 Cap Hits For 2017:

Von Miller, OLB: $20,000,000
Demaryius Thomas, WR: $12,033,333
Aqib Talib, CB: $12,000,000
Russell Okung, T: $11,700,000
Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $9,537,500
Chris Harris, CB: $9,366,666
Derek Wolfe, DE: $9,725,000
Darian Stewart, S: $7,400,000
T.J. Ward, S: $5,750,000
Donald Stephenson, T: $5,000,000

Current Projected Cap Room (via OverTheCap): $38,545,915

Other:

20th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline Bradley Roby‘s fifth-year option for 2018

Three needs:

1.) Address the lines: After the Broncos decided to part with some of the best offensive linemen in franchise history, they replaced the aging contributors with some lesser-known commodities and mid-level UFAs. For the most part, the gamble backfired. With the exception of a breakout season from center Matt Paradis, the Broncos’ O-line struggled throughout the season. It marked the second straight year of underwhelming blocking, and the team could be looking at another overhaul.

While the 2015 season saw injuries force suboptimal tackles into action, the latest edition of the line featured the starting edge blockers not delivering for the most part. Replacing the traded Ryan Clady, Russell Okung played in 16 regular-season games for the first time but didn’t stand out particularly at left tackle. And right tackle Donald Stephenson continued the underwhelming play that got him benched in Kansas City. Denver shelved its newly acquired right tackle only to be forced to return him to the lineup due to Ty Sambrailo‘s poor performance.

Although he fared slightly better at right guard than at right tackle, Michael Schofield received one of the worst run-blocking grades from Pro Football Focus. Fellow second-year contributor Max Garcia, moving into the starting lineup at left guard following the team’s decisions to not retain Louis Vasquez or Evan Mathis, delivered a middling season. At least one guard seems likely to stay to bring some semblance of continuity to a line that’s seen anything but the past two years. It deployed new starters at four of the five positions in each of the past two slates.

Despite being unable to generate consistent offense during their Super Bowl charge, the Broncos ranked 17th in rushing in 2015. This season, they plummeted to 27th, putting the onus on Trevor Siemian to move the ball for the most part down the stretch. C.J. Anderson‘s injury affected this to some degree, but the Broncos were often overwhelmed in pass protection as well, giving up 40 sacks this season after absorbing 39 in ’15. Siemian also missed five halves of football due to injury. Paradis is the only lock to return. A Stephenson cut will cost the Broncos $2MM in dead money while generating $3MM in cap savings. The team must decide whether or not to exercise the four-year, $48MM part of Okung’s two-pronged contract on the final day of the 2016 league year. Bringing the 29-year-old blocker back at that price seems unlikely, but finding a superior UFA options might be a task. At right tackle, players like Sebastian Vollmer and Riley Reiff could be available. The guard market, though, looks plentiful.

T.J. Lang, Larry Warford, Ronald Leary and Kevin Zeitler all are scheduled to be UFAs. As of now, it’s unknown if the Broncos are going back to a power scheme or staying with Kubiak’s zone-blocking preference, making potential targets tougher to identify. David DeCastro and Kyle Long reset the non-Kelechi Osemele guard market this year, receiving $10MM-AAV deals. As the cap climbs toward $170MM, the latest crop of top UFA interior blockers figures to be in line to shoot for eight-figure-per-year deals. Should the Broncos move on from Okung and Stephenson, they won’t have a veteran contract up front and would be in position to make a bid for one of these UFAs to play team with one of their incumbents, likely Garcia.

Denver coaxed Derek Wolfe into signing a team-friendly deal but missed Malik Jackson this season. After Vance Walker‘s ACL tear, the team could not recreate the departed UFA’s impact. Initially, the defending Super Bowl champions planned to use a rotation of Walker, Jared Crick and second-round pick Adam Gotsis. That pretty much became Crick at right defensive end, with Gotsis not factoring in much, and this was the most noticeable difference between the Super Bowl unit and its successor. The Broncos dropped from third to 28th against the run. Crick remains under contract, but the team will likely look to at least supplement him at right end if not shoot for an upgrade. A nose tackle vacancy exists now as well after the Broncos did not pick up Sylvester Williams‘ fifth-year option.

High-end nose solutions could exist in Dontari Poe and Brandon Williams, but with greater needs looming on their offensive line, the Broncos may not want to spend big here. At end, the team could look to bring back the soon-to-be 30-year-old Walker on a short-term deal. Should Calais Campbell want to join a star-studded defense with a need at right defensive end, that would be an interesting option on a medium-length accord. Of course, the longtime Cardinals stalwart won’t be cheap, and the Broncos already have most of their payroll allocated to defense.

Nevertheless, there will be plenty of new faces manning the lines for the 2017 Broncos.

2.) Make a decision at quarterback: Trevor Siemian gave the Broncos more than what could have been expected from a seventh-round pick who had never thrown an NFL pass before 2016. Kubiak preferred him to Paxton Lynch in the short term, cementing this notion by keeping the first-rounder on the sideline in a meaningless Week 17 game that could have been used for developmental purposes. We heard last month the team planned to go into 2017 with Siemian in command, but that all could change now that Kubiak is gone. The Broncos will have a new offensive staff coming in, potentially altering the respective statuses of the incumbent passers.

After a solid cameo against the Buccaneers for a half in Week 4, Lynch struggled against the Falcons and Jaguars in his spot starts. If John Elway deems his quarterback of the future a longer-term project, a higher-profile bridge solution could make sense. A trade for a player like Tony Romo would not be out of character for the GM, but the Cowboys quarterback would have to renegotiate his contract ($24.7MM ’17 cap number) in all likelihood and will be 37 next season. Part of the reason the Broncos could dole out extensions to Darian Stewart, Emmanuel Sanders and Brandon Marshall this year came as a result of no longer having a franchise-QB salary on their payroll. Putting that kind of money back into the quarterback position would tighten the budget elsewhere.

As the Broncos showed last offseason with Colin Kaepernick, they won’t be forced into a deal at an unfriendly price. But going into another season with unqualified quarterback could potentially waste an additional year of Denver’s loaded defense. While it would be somewhat impractical to go after a franchise-type passer via trade while rostering a first-round pick needing development, the state of the Broncos’ defense could make that a legitimate conversation.

3.) Locate an auxiliary pass-catcher: While Siemian (3,401 yards, 18 TDs, 10 INTs, 59 percent completion rate) showed more than most thought he would, the Broncos did not possess a balanced offense. And Denver’s lack of a ground game only served as part of the issue. Owen Daniels‘ AFC championship game heroics notwithstanding, the Broncos have been without a reliable receiving tight end since Julius Thomas departed and have not found a third receiver since injuries stalled Wes Welker. For the fifth straight season, the Broncos saw two receivers eclipse 1,000 yards. But no other receiver or tight end surpassed 240, helping defenses key on Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders in a Broncos offense that wasn’t as nuanced as their versions under Adam Gase.

Thomas and Sanders are locked up through 2019. Bennie Fowler, Jordan Taylor and disappointing former second-round pick Cody Latimer are under contract for 2017, as are tight ends Virgil Green and A.J. Derby. But the Broncos will likely search for a third viable pass-catcher. What happens with the offensive line and at quarterback loom as higher priorities, but this is an area Denver could address with a high draft pick or mid-level free agency dollars.

Denver may be more inclined to give the Derby/Green/Jeff Heuerman troika another chance due to the undetermined ceilings of Derby and Heuerman. As far as WR2/3 types go in free agency, players like Kendall Wright, Robert Woods, Terrance Williams and Markus Wheaton figure to be available. The team, though, is unlikely to spend much here due to both Thomas and Sanders making eight figures per year. No team pays more money for its top two wideouts, so an early-round draft pick from the new staff makes more sense.

The Broncos have not seen a drafted wideout produce much for them since a previous regime selected Thomas and Eric Decker in 2010. As college receivers come in more prepared to contribute immediately, it’s something the franchise could look at — especially if the new offensive system centers around three-wideout sets.

PFR Originals: 1/1/17 – 1/8/17

January 8th, 2017 at 1:43pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

The regular season is complete, which means that the start of free agency and the new league year are right around the corner. With that in mind, Zach Links published the second edition of PFR’s 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings, a comprehensive top 10 of players hitting the market next spring (sorted by guaranteed money). Kirk Cousins, Chandler Jones, and Kawann Short top the list.
With six clubs now conducting head coaching interviews, the news regarding those vacancies can be difficult to follow. Keep things organized with PFR’s 2017 Head Coaching Search Tracker, which will keep tabs on every opening, potential candidates, and interviews.
As the offseason progresses, PFR will assess each team by examining the top three needs on each respective roster. Connor Byrne kicked things off last week, taking a look at the Buffalo Bills, Tyrod Taylor, the club’s defensive struggles, and the weak receiving corps.
In the latest entry in PFR’s The Beat series, Zach talked Vikings with Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Topics discussed include Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Terence Newman.

PFR’s 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings

January 6th, 2017 at 10:00pm CST by Zachary Links

The regular season is over and, for most teams, the offseason is underway. Here is the latest installment of our 2017 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings, which is comprised only of upcoming unrestricted free agents, and is ranked by projected guaranteed money. In parentheses next to each player, you’ll find their position in the November edition of the rankings. For more, check out our master list of all 2017 free agents.

1. Kirk Cousins, QB (1): In 2015, Cousins established himself as a solid NFL quarterback. That summer, the Redskins told Cousins they wanted him to prove it all over again before giving him a monster contract. Cousins was happy to oblige and he has now increased his value even further. After a so-so start to 2016 season, Cousins closed out strong to finish as Pro Football Focus’ No. 8 ranked QB, putting him ahead of notables such as Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Philip Rivers. All of those players have gotten their big pay day and now it’s time for Cousins to join the club.

2. Chandler Jones, LB/DE (2): Before you start salivating over the idea of Jones joining your favorite team’s front seven, we have some bad news: Bruce Arians says the Cardinals will place the franchise tag on him if they cannot agree on a long-term deal. Whether it’s on a one-year, $16.955MM deal or a multi-year contract that tops Olivier Vernon‘s Giants deal, it sounds like Jones is staying put. Jones, 27 in May, played in all 16 games this year and racked up 11 sacks.

3. Kawann Short, DT (4): Contract talks between the Panthers and Short stalled last summer and Fletcher Cox‘s market-boosting deal with the Eagles didn’t help matters. Short wound up playing 2016 for peanuts ($1.473MM) and he turned in yet another stellar season. Short was the fourth-best interior defender in the league this season, per Pro Football Focus, and his 87.7 overall score was roughly the same as his 2015 mark, even though he had five less sacks. In June, it was said that the Panthers did not want to go too far beyond an average annual salary of $15MM. If he’s not franchised tagged or signed to a long-term deal by Carolina, there are a few teams that will happily go beyond that point.

4. Alshon Jeffery, WR (3): Despite a down year, Dallas Robinson gave Jeffery the benefit of the doubt last time and ranked him as our No. 3 free agent based on his past work. That was one week before his four-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Jeffery claimed that he took “a recommended supplement to combat inflammation” without realizing that it contained something that was on the league’s banned list of substances. That may be true, but Jeffery needed to rebound from his injury-shortened 2015 with a full, productive season in order to restore his stock. Teams will cut him some slack given the Bears’ quarterback issues, but he might not approach the deals of Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant.

5. Melvin Ingram, LB (6): Ingram broke out in 2015 and in 2016 he proved it wasn’t a fluke. Now with back-to-back seasons as one of the league’s better edge rushers, Ingram is poised to cash in. Ryan Kerrigan‘s five-year, $57.5MM extension with the Redskins has been suggested as a comp, but I expect Ingram to top that deal. This is nearly two years later and the projected cap increase should benefit all players.

6. Dont’a Hightower, LB (6): Hightower has been a stud for the Patriots ever since entering the league as a first-round pick in 2012. Charged with anchoring the defense at inside linebacker, Hightower doesn’t have gaudy stats, but the advanced numbers illustrate how good he is. This year, he graded out as the No. 13 off-ball LB in 2016, according to PFF, which ranks him as the best pass-rushing inside ‘backer in the league. He’s consistent too, with even better scores in 2014 and 2015. The Patriots moved on from Jones and Jamie Collins last year but they do not want to lose Hightower.

7. Jamie Collins, LB (5): Heading into his contract year, Collins was determined to put up big numbers. He was so driven to increase his value, reports say, that he began “freelancing,” or making ill-advised choices in order to be the first defensive player to the ball. The Patriots subsequently traded him away for peanuts, and that’s not a great endorsement for him. On top of the character concerns, Collins will have to answer for a down year that cast him as just above average rather than the top ten ‘backer he was in the previous two seasons.

8. A.J. Bouye, CB (9): Before this season, you could have been forgiven for not knowing Bouye’s name. Now, there’s no excuse. Bouye burst out of obscurity in 2016 and he now looks the part of a No. 1 cornerback. The best part is that he doesn’t turn 26 until August, making him the youngest player on this list. I predict that Bouye will outearn every other corner in this class, a group that includes guys like Trumaine Johnson, Stephon Gilmore, and Morris Claiborne.

9. Kevin Zeitler, G (8): Zeitler made the jump from good to great in 2014 and never looked back. This year, he stands as PFF’s No. 7 ranked guard and the No. 1 guard bound for the free agent market. T.J. Lang is a close second according to the advanced metrics, but Zeitler is more than two years younger than Lang and should easily surpass him in guarantees. Kelechi Osemele‘s five-year, $58.5MM deal could be in reach for the Bengals lineman if enough teams get in on the bidding.

10. Calais Campbell, DL (NR): When the Cardinals acquired Jones from the Patriots, many believed that Calais Campbell was a goner in Arizona. Now, after what is arguably a career season, the Cardinals are probably singing a different tune. Defensive lineman Michael Bennett recently signed a three-year extension with the Seahawks worth $31.5MM with $17.5MM in guarantees. Campbell should have no trouble beating that, especially since he is a year younger and coming off of a better season.

Honorable mention

Le’Veon Bell (10): Most running backs don’t get big bucks in free agency, but most of them don’t run like Bell. This year, he reminded everyone of his pass-catching abilities and even did some of his damage lined up at wide receiver. Bell should easily best LeSean McCoy‘s ~$8MM AAV and Doug Martin‘s $15MM in guarantees this offseason.

Honorable mention continued: Eric Berry, Jason Pierre-Paul, T.J. Lang, Stephon Gilmore, Tony Jefferson, Trumaine Johnson, Nick Perry, Dontari Poe, Martellus Bennett

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Buffalo Bills

January 6th, 2017 at 9:31pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll kick off this year’s series with the Buffalo Bills, who finished 7-9 in 2016 and have now gone a league-worst 17 seasons without a playoff berth.

The Bills have shuffled through seven different full-time head coaches since their most recent postseason trip, and they’re now looking for yet another as a result of Rex Ryan‘s late-December dismissal. Beleaguered general manager Doug Whaley, who’s leading the search, has so far targeted interim head coach Anthony Lynn, Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin and three D-coordinators – Sean McDermott (Panthers), Vance Joseph (Dolphins) and Kris Richard (Seahawks) – as Ryan’s potential successor. Regardless of which candidate Whaley hires, the fifth-year GM will have to make major offseason improvements to a roster that ranked a below-average 19th in the league in DVOA in 2016.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Lorenzo Alexander, LB
Colt Anderson, S
Dri Archer, RB (RFA)
Robert Blanton, S
Zach Brown, LB
Reggie Bush, RB
Corbin Bryant, DL
Leger Douzable, DE
IK Enemkpali, LB (RFA)
Jerome Felton, FB
Mike Gillislee, RB (RFA)
Stephon Gilmore, CB
Marquise Goodwin, WR
Chris Gragg, TE
Ryan Groy, C/G (RFA)
Percy Harvin, WR
Ramon Humber, LB
Justin Hunter, WR
James Ihedigbo, S
EJ Manuel, QB
Lerentee McCray, LB
Jonathan Meeks, S
Jordan Mills, OT
Colton Schmidt, P (RFA)
Brandon Spikes, LB
Brandon Tate, WR
Corey White, CB
Robert Woods, WR

Top 10 Cap Hits For 2017:

Marcell Dareus, DT: $16,400,000
Tyrod Taylor, QB: $15,913,334
Cordy Glenn, LT: $14,200,000
Jerry Hughes, LB/DE: $10,450,000
Charles Clay, TE: $9,000,000
LeSean McCoy, RB: $8,875,000
Kyle Williams, DT: $8,300,000
Eric Wood, C: $7,583,333
Aaron Williams, S: $6,625,000
Sammy Watkins, WR: $6,343,146

Current Projected Cap Room (via Over the Cap): $25.99MM

Other:

Tenth overall pick in draft
Must exercise or decline WR Sammy Watkins’ fifth-year option for 2018

Three Needs:

1.) Make a decision on Tyrod Taylor‘s future: Lackluster quarterback play has been the main staple in Buffalo during its long run of failed seasons, but Taylor has been effective relative to the dreck that preceded him.

In two seasons and 29 games as a starter, the ex-Ravens backup has completed 62.6 percent of passes, tossed 37 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. The 27-year-old has also emerged as the preeminent running quarterback in the league, having piled up 560-plus yards in back-to-back seasons (on a lofty 5.8 per rush) to pair with 10 more scores.

Despite the success Taylor has had at a meager cost, the Bills are planning to move on from him by March 11, the deadline to pick up the $15.5MM option bonus in his contract. By declining that option, the Bills would escape Taylor’s deal – which they awarded him last August – and its remaining guaranteed money ($30.75MM).

Jettisoning Taylor would again put Buffalo on the hunt for a starting signal-caller, though, as backup EJ Manuel will be a free agent (and has no business starting even if he does re-sign) and third-stringer Cardale Jones is nowhere near ready to take the helm. The premier names whose statuses are in limbo entering the offseason are Kirk Cousins, Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo, but none look like realistic possibilities for the Bills. Cousins is likely to either ink a long-term deal with the Redskins or get the franchise tag; Romo, whom the Cowboys could cut, should have more enticing choices than Buffalo; and it’s difficult to imagine the Patriots trading Garoppolo to an AFC East rival. The Pats did send one of Tom Brady‘s previous backups, Drew Bledsoe, to the Bills in 2002 for a first-round selection, but doing that enabled the club to rid itself of Bledsoe’s contract and land a valuable pick for a declining player. The 25-year-old Garoppolo’s best days might be ahead of him, and New England could easily keep him next season at an $820K salary.

After Cousins, Romo and Garoppolo, the potential choices are much more flawed. There’s the Bears’ Jay Cutler, a release candidate, though he’s coming off a bad and injury-plagued year. Chiefs backup Nick Foles is also a cap casualty in waiting, but he hasn’t been any kind of an answer as a starter aside from a fluky 2013 in Philadelphia. Free agents-to-be like Brian Hoyer and Mike Glennon have been career mediocrities, too, while counting on Steelers backup Landry Jones or Bears reserve Matt Barkley would be a sizable risk. The same is true of Bengals No. 2 and trade candidate A.J. McCarron.

Of course, Buffalo could also use a high draft choice – the team is set to pick 10th – on a signal-caller and add a veteran No. 2 (someone like Josh McCown, ex-Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick or Shaun Hill, among others) as competition. The Bills won’t be in position to select the draft’s No. 1-rated quarterback prospect, North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, but Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has Whaley taking Clemson’s Deshaun Watson at 10th overall. The mobile Watson is the most pro-ready QB in this year’s class, opines Miller, who points out his familiarity with ex-Clemson star and No. 1 Bills wideout Sammy Watkins.

2.) Rebuild the defense: The Bills just concluded their second straight subpar defensive season, one in which they ranked 16th in scoring, 19th in yardage and 26th in DVOA. Three of their key defenders – cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebackers Zach Brown and Lorenzo Alexander – are now on schedule to hit free agency.

Gilmore regressed in 2016, but he’s still likely to sign a mega-deal with someone. The Bills are going to have to weigh whether to give him that contact, slap the $14.927MM franchise tag on him or say goodbye. Brown, meanwhile, seemingly waved goodbye to the Bills on Thursday; they may have a ready-made successor to him in 2016 second-rounder Reggie Ragland, who missed the season with a torn ACL. Alexander, a soon-to-be 34-year-old journeyman who stunningly racked up 12.5 sacks this season (he came into 2016 with nine) en route to a second-team All-Pro bid, has indicated his willingness to re-sign will depend on the Bills’ coaching hire. Elsewhere, safety Aaron Williams is contemplating retirement because of neck issues, and stalwart D-tackle Kyle Williams could also walk away.

There’s clearly change on the horizon for the Bills’ defensive personnel, as evidenced above, and it’s also possible their next head coach will switch from the 3-4 base they ran under the Ryans (Rex and Rob) and coordinator Dennis Thurman to a 4-3. Their first-rounder from last year, former Clemson standout Shaq Lawson, is hoping to return to his college position – 4-3 defensive end – after a low-impact rookie year as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Lawson joins Marcell Dareus, who also wasn’t wild about the previous regime’s defensive scheme, Jerry Hughes, Adolphus Washington, Preston Brown, Ronald Darby, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Corey Graham and Ragland as Bills defenders who look like strong bets to have prominent roles in 2017. The rest is up in the air.

3.) Bolster the receiving corps: Although eminently talented, Watkins has been extremely banged up over the past couple years. A foot injury kept him off the field for half of 2016, and he underwent another surgery to address it this week. Even if Watkins is healthy next season, he’ll need more help.

The Bills’ second-best receiver, pending free agent Robert Woods, will test the market after a fourth straight quality campaign. Marquise Goodwin, Justin Hunter, Brandon Tate and the once-retired Percy Harvin are also without contracts going forward. That leaves the Bills with Watkins and Walter Powell, who caught 14 passes in 2016, as their current one-two punch at receiver. Nobody from the Goodwin-Hunter-Tate-Harvin contingent is a world-beater, either, so the Bills are going to have to venture into free agency for a veteran complement(s) to Watkins. There will be several to choose from – including Alshon Jeffery, Terrelle Pryor, Pierre Garcon, Kenny Britt, Kamar Aiken, Kendall Wright, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn and Dontrelle Inman – but productive pass catchers don’t come cheap in free agency. It’s also probable Whaley will turn to the draft (not necessarily in Round 1), where Western Michigan’s Corey Davis could be a possibility at No. 10. Of course, that would mean using a first-rounder on a receiver just three years after Whaley essentially spent two on Watkins.

The Beat: Chris Tomasson On The Vikings

January 6th, 2017 at 1:47pm CST by Zachary Links

Now that the regular season is over, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

This week, we caught up with Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to discuss the Vikings. You can follow Chris on Twitter @christomasson and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: The Vikings have already anointed Sam Bradford as their 2017 starter. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater‘s timetable for return is uncertain and the Vikings must decide on his 2018 option by May 2nd. How do you think they’ll handle the $12.5MM decision?

Chris Tomasson: It’s a very difficult question to answer since the Vikings know far more about the severity of his injury than they have let on. There would be some surprise from my end if the Vikings don’t pick up the option since it is guaranteed only in the event of injury, and it would have to be a new injury that would guarantee it. Even if Teddy Bridgewater can’t play in 2017, when he has a cap number of $2.18MM, picking up the option could buy time for them to assess his recovery. If the Vikings pick up the option, the big issue could come in March 2018 when the Vikings might have to make a final determination on their quarterback of the future. They can’t pay two quarterbacks a combined total of $30MM or more. At that point, Bridgewater could be released or asked to sign a deal for a lesser figure as a backup.

Zach Links: Recently, Adrian Peterson hinted that he might be open to a pay cut. Do you think he’s ready to take the kind of haircut the Vikings probably have in mind? Wherever he winds up, do you think he can resume playing at a high level?

Chris Tomasson: I think it will depend on what other teams might be willing to offer and how those teams stack up against the Vikings regarding a chance to win a Super Bowl. The Vikings stood by Peterson during his child-abuse situation and coach Mike Zimmer wants him back, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they look to bring him back. I don’t think Peterson is a 1,500-yard-type back anymore, but I think he could gain 1,000 yards for someone. I think he might have to accept a reduction in carries, wherever he might play.

Zach Links: Do you think pending free agent Cordarrelle Patterson will be back with the team next year? Do you see him moving forward as a kick return specialist or do you think he can fulfill his potential as an all-around wide receiver?

Chris Tomasson: I think Patterson got enough work at wide receiver this season that he will seriously consider a Vikings offer to return. I would be surprised if another team offered him a big deal to be a starting-caliber wide receiver. While much of it was a product of Minnesota’s short passing game, he averaged just 8.7 yards on his 52 catches. He has said he wants to return to Minnesota, and all I can do is take him at his word.

Zach Links: He’s stayed mum on the subject, but do you expect to see 38-year-old Terence Newman return to the Vikings in 2017?

Chris Tomasson: Terence Newman still can play, there’s no doubt about it. He told me that to return, there has to be certain conditions met, some that are in his control and some that are out of it. He wouldn’t tell me what they are. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, to see Newman back considering he has remained healthy and no serious slippage was evident in 2016. However, I’m sure if he were to return, his snaps would be cut back considering the continued maturation of Trae Waynes.

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