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Let’s Find A New Team For Jay Ajayi

July 18th, 2019 at 8:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Jay Ajayi is one of the more high-profile names still left on the free agent market, but it’s perhaps unsurprising that he’s yet to find a new contract after hitting free agency in March. The former Eagle and Dolphin has never ranked favorably in running back efficiency metrics, and his injury history is concerning. After tearing his right ACL while at Boise State, Ajayi dealt with hamstring, rib, shoulder, head, and shoulder issues in the NFL before suffering another torn ACL — this time, on his left knee — in 2018.

However, there are still some reasons to be optimistic about Ajayi’s future. As recently as 2016, Ajayi finished seventh in Football Outsiders’ DYAR, which measures value over a replacement level player. The following year, he ranked 10th in broken tackle/per touch percentage, a statistic that, as Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight.com tweets, is mostly under the back’s control and thus a reliable metric for evaluating the position.

As training camp approaches, let’s take a look at a few teams that could still use a back like Ajayi:

Houston Texans

Houston finally made investments in its offensive line over the offseason, adding free agent Matt Kalil on a one-year pact and using two of its first three draft picks on offensive tackles Tytus Howard and Max Scharping. How much Kalil (who hasn’t played well or been able to stay healthy in recent years) or small-school projects Howard and Scharping will actually help in 2019 is unclear, but the Texans needed to do something to improve its rushing attack, which ranked just 26th in DVOA a season ago.

The next step might be adding a complement to running back Lamar Miller, whose share of Houston’s carry total has decreased in each of his three seasons with the club. The Texans don’t have many serviceable options behind Miller, as the leading candidate for No. 2 duties is D’Onta Foreman, who handled only seven carries in 2019 after recovering from a torn Achilles. Ajayi could give Houston another dimension on offense while protecting the team against a Miller injury.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are the only team to have actually hosted Ajayi thus far, doing so when free agency originally opened back in March. However, reports quickly followed indicating no deal was imminent between Indianapolis and Ajayi, and the Colts clearly haven’t had the urge to sign him since. Indy already has a solid rushing infrastructure, boasting one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and three competent backs in Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines. Indianapolis doesn’t need Ajayi, but he’d be interesting on a cheap deal.

Los Angeles Chargers

We don’t know how Melvin Gordon‘s holdout is going to end. Will he and the Chargers agree to a deal? If not, will he sit out the entire season like Le’Veon Bell did in 2018? These are currently unanswerable questions, but if Gordon does miss game action as threatened, Los Angeles could potentially need another running back.

Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson both proved to be efficient when filling in for Gordon when the latter suffered a sprained MCL last season, and Ekeler, especially, has been extremely proficient in the passing game when called upon. In the event of a Gordon absence, the Chargers could probably get by with a duo of Ekeler and Jackson, but Ajayi would give Los Angeles another option capable of handling carries.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers finished 24th in rushing DVOA and 28th in expected points gained by their rushing attack in 2018, but did next to nothing to address their backfield during the offseason. Sure, Tampa Bay added Bruce Arians favorite Andre Ellington and undrafted free agent Bruce Anderson to its roster, but the lack of meaningful reinforcements means the club will once again be relying on veteran Peyton Barber and 2018 second-round pick Ronald Jones as its primary ball-carriers.

Jones handled only 23 attempts during his rookie campaign, but the USC product is expected to be a larger part of the Bucs’ offense this season. He’s generated some buzz by gaining 13 pounds over the offseason, but adding weight has historically not been a recipe for success for running backs.

Jones’ lack of production in his first NFL season was relatively unprecedented, especially for a second-round pick. Here are the all first- or second-round round running backs since 2010 that handled fewer than 100 carries during their respective rookie years, via Pro-Football-Reference.com:

It’s not a great group! Some backs like Shane Vereen and Carlos Hyde, eventually found success, but the track of record of RBs who did next to nothing in their rookie seasons is certainly unspectacular. Barber, meanwhile, has never produced an above-average campaign, so Ajayi could be a welcome addition to Tampa Bay’s running back depth chart.

Is The Rams’ Offensive Line A Concern?

July 18th, 2019 at 5:57pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Following the 2016 season, the Rams’ offensive line looked like one of the worst units in the NFL. Los Angeles’ front five was fresh off a campaign in which it had ranked 29th in Football Outsiders‘ adjusted line yards, 29th in adjusted sack rate, and 21st in pressure rate allowed. No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff was sacked 25 times over the final six games of the year, and there was at least some concern that the rookie quarterback would languish à la David Carr, eternally too worried about incoming pressure to ever succeed.

Sean McVay took over as the Rams’ head coach that offseason, and the club’s new regime made fortifying its offensive line a priority. Longtime Bengals left tackle Andrew Whitworth was signed to a three-year, $33.75MM deal to replace failed former No. 2 overall selection Greg Robinson on Goff’s blindside. Tim Barnes struggled as Los Angeles’ center in 2016, so the Rams inked veteran John Sullivan to a cheap, one-year pact. McVay also added Aaron Kromer — who’d previously worked wonders in New Orleans and Buffalo — as LA’s new offensive line coach.

Whitworth and Sullivan, combined with holdovers Rodger Saffold, Jamon Brown, and Rob Havenstein, transformed the Rams’ front five. Los Angeles improved to third in adjusted line yards, ninth in adjusted sack rate, and 12th in pressure rate allowed. Goff absorbed only 28 sacks on the season. And Pro Football Focus, which had ranked the Rams’ line as just the 27th-best unit after 2016, assigned LA its sixth-highest offensive line grade after the 2017 campaign.

Things mostly stayed the same in 2018. The Rams arguably posted even better results along their offensive line, and the only major change came at right guard, where former waiver claim Austin Blythe took over for Brown. Brown, who was suspended for the first two games of the 20198 campaign and never regained his starting job, is now a member of the Giants.

But entering the 2019 season, real concerns have emerged on LA’s front five. Saffold is gone, having signed a four-year, $44MM pact with the Titans. The Rams should pick up a compensatory fourth-round pick in 2020 as a result of Saffold’s departure, but that won’t offset his loss during the upcoming year. At center, Sullivan saw his option declined, and he’s yet to latch on with another team.

Rams 2018 third-round pick Joseph Noteboom — who is expected to eventually take over for Whitworth at left tackle — is currently penciled in as the club’s starting left guard. While he’s a relative unknown, there are reasons to be excited about the TCU product. Noteboom posted elite measurables during the pre-draft process, and shined during the 2018 preseason, allowing zero pressures on 71 pass-blocking snaps. He played in relief of Whitworth during the Rams’ 2018 regular season finale, and didn’t give up any pressures on 47 total snaps.

Brian Allen, selected one round after Noteboom in the Rams’ 2018 draft, will take over for Sullivan at center. Allen has even less experience than Noteboom, as the former played only 36 offensive snaps during his rookie year. Pro Football Focus graded Allen relatively well (in an admittedly small sample size) when he filled in for Sullivan in Week 17, and Brandon Thorn of The Athletic — one of the best offensive line analysts in the media — called Allen an “undersized technically sound guy in the mold of Blythe.”

Noteboom and Allen have played fewer than 150 combined NFL snaps, but they aren’t the only potential problems along LA’s line. Blythe was an excellent find on the waiver wire, but his play fell off during the second half of last season, raising concerns that he may have been exposed. And while Whitworth’s play hasn’t yet begun to slip, he’ll be 38 years old by the end of the 2019 campaign, so there seemingly has to be some sort of decline approaching.

If last season was any indication, Goff needs elite offensive line play to stay effective. Per Evan Silva of Establish the Run, Goff ranked fourth in the NFL in passer rating when kept clean in the pocket in 2018, but fell to 28th in passer rating when under pressure. The Rams also ran the ball at the ninth-highest clip in the league last year, so Todd Gurley, Darrell Henderson, & Co. need LA’s front five to consistently open holes in McVay’s outside zone scheme.

What will the Rams do if their line begins to falter in 2019? They may attempt to insert rookies Bobby Evans or David Edwards into the lineup, but that’d mean adding even more inexperience up front. Los Angeles could try to swing a trade for someone like Lane Taylor (Packers) or Stefen Wisniewski (Eagles), but the importance of offensive line continuity makes an in-season addition difficult. What about a reunion with Sullivan, especially if Allen struggles at center? It’s probably telling that Sullivan remains on the open market four-plus months after being cut.

None of those options are overly appealing or all that feasible, so the Rams need to hope for the best with the current projected starters. We haven’t seen a McVay/Rams offensive with a poor offensive line, and LA is certainly hoping we don’t see one next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Eight NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned

July 17th, 2019 at 9:41am CST by Zachary Links

With training camp on the horizon, there are still eight unsigned NFL draft picks left, as shown in PFR’s tracker: So far, 244 of this year’s 254 selections have inked their deals.

Here’s the complete breakdown, sorted by round:

First Round (5)

Second Round (1)

Third Round (1)

Seventh Round (1)

As expected, the first round (five) leads the way in stragglers. It’s also worth noting that four of the five remaining unsigned first-round picks are repped by CAA: Bosa, White, Jones, and Burns. Last July, CAA had five of the seven unsigned players in the top 10, so it’s clear that the power agency is driving a hard bargain over key issues such as offset language.

The Broncos seemed to have a logjam earlier this week when Drew Lock (No. 42) overall pushed for a quarterback premium while guard Dalton Risner (No. 41 overall) refused to take less money than the player drafted behind him. They slashed this list from 11 to nine by agreeing to terms with their second-rounders on back-to-back days.

Cutting, meanwhile, is now allowed to defer his military service while he plays professional football, so a deal should be signed any day now.

This Date In Transactions History: Tony Boselli Retires

July 16th, 2019 at 10:33am CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2003, one of the most underrated offensive linemen in the history of the game called it a career. Tackle Tony Boselli, the first ever draft pick of the Jaguars, retired at the age of 31. 

Soon after being drafted with the No. 2 pick in the 1995 draft, Boselli established himself as one of the best players in Jacksonville. He earned five consecutive Pro Bowl appearances from 1996-2000 with three First-Team All-Pro selections coming in 97-99. The Jaguars reached the postseason in four of their first five seasons in existence, and Boselli played a huge role in their success.

Unfortunately, injuries started to chip away at Boselli in 2001 and he appeared in only three games that season. In February 2002, the Jaguars made Boselli one of their five exposed players for the Texans’ expansion draft. With the very first pick, Houston took on Boselli’s $6.883MM cap figure, but they did not get the All-Pro they were expecting.

”I am retiring because of medical reasons, specifically my left shoulder, which did not continue to improve to the point where I could play,” said Boselli as he announced his retirement.

Boselli’s career was relatively short, but highly impactful. In seven seasons with the Jaguars, Boselli allowed only 15.5 sacks and cemented his legacy as one of the Jaguars’ most important players of all-time.

Boselli signed a one-day deal to retire with the Jaguars in 2006 and became the first inductee into the team’s Hall of Fame. Still, the football Hall of Fame eludes him. In 2019, Boselli was denied entry in his 13th year of eligibility and his third year as a finalist.

Release Candidate: Ravens’ Brandon Williams

July 14th, 2019 at 7:02pm CST by Zachary Links

At 337 pounds, Brandon Williams has been a force on the interior for the Ravens. However, with a $14.1MM scheduled cap hit in 2019 and other options, the Ravens could consider releasing the veteran before the start of the season.

[POLL: Which 2018 Playoff Team Will Miss The Postseason?]

Williams was once among the best defensive tackles in football, but his production has slipped in recent years. Last season, Williams graded out as just the No. 33 ranked interior defender in the league, according to Pro Football Focus, a major drop off from his 2014 and 2015 form.

Moving on from Williams could open up more opportunities for Michael Pierce, who is four years younger at the age of 26. Pierce is a quality pass rusher, a stronger defender against the run, and finished out as PFF’s No. 5 ranked DT in 2018. There’s also fifth-round rookie Daylon Mack to consider. The Texas A&M product is undeniably green, but he has a lot of potential as a run stuffing nose tackle.

Historically, the Ravens haven’t been big on using the post June 1 designation for release, but employing that with Williams would save them $6.25MM for the coming season.

 

PFR Originals: 7/7/19 – 7/14/19

July 14th, 2019 at 4:57pm CST by Sam Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • PFR’s “Extension Candidate” series rolled along during the offseason, with five more players’ re-up cases being examined:
    • The Falcons have several key players either in contract years or, in Julio Jones‘ case, amid negotiations. Zach Links took a look at Deion Jones‘ extension candidacy and wonders how his 2018 injury, and the deals handed out to C.J. Mosley and Kwon Alexander, will affect his negotiations.
    • How will the Titans proceed with All-Pro Kevin Byard? Dallas Robinson assessed where that situation stands and wonders what kind of bearing Landon Collins‘ $14MM-AAV Redskins pact will have on the next wave of contract-seeking young safeties.
    • Yannick Ngakoue decided to skip minicamp to put pressure on the Jaguars, as he enters his contract year. The lack of leverage the former third-round pick has, however, affects this standoff, which Zach summarized here.
    • The Bears did well in fortifying their offensive line three years ago, with second-rounder Cody Whitehair now entering what will be his fourth season as a starter. As Whitehair shifts to guard to accommodate James Daniels‘ center path, Dallas looked at what is at stake for the former Kansas State blocker. It’s a great era to be a free agent guard, which could prompt Whitehair to bet on himself.
    • Lastly, the Broncos have their entire starting defensive line in contract years. Perhaps the most interesting walk-year D-lineman is Shelby Harris, who has made a name for himself after being out of football in 2016. I examined how the Broncos, who have let interior linemen walk in recent years, might proceed here.
  • On the other end of the spectrum, we looked at three more players who reside on roster bubbles in PFR’s “Release Candidate” series:
    • The oft-injured C.J. Prosise ran into more trouble on the health front this offseason, and Dallas sought to determine if the once-promising back will have exhausted Seattle’s patience.
    • Lions safety Miles Killebrew has an important training camp ahead, with Zach pointing out that a range of outcomes — from succeeding Glover Quin as Detroit’s free safety starter to winding up off the roster — are in play for the fourth-year defender.
    • Also potentially on the Detroit bubble: longtime passing-down back Theo Riddick. The PPR flex mainstay’s contract, which calls for a $4.6MM 2019 cap number, may impede him from coming back for another Lions tour of duty, Dallas writes.
    • The Redskins have made plans to use Ereck Flowers as their starting left guard, and the former Giants tackle bust did have to work at left tackle while Trent Williams skipped minicamp. Flowers did not fare well at tackle in June, and if he shows more of the same in training camp, Zach debates whether he will be on the Redskins’ 53-man roster.
  • PFR also continued its “This Date in Transactions History” series, rolling out three new entries.
    • Victor Cruz suffered a severe knee injury that led to his career ending early, but a year prior, the breakout Giants slot receiver secured guaranteed money with a 2013 extension. Zach recalled the Giants’ thinking at the time and how this re-up played out.
    • The Colts formed their long-term pass-rushing partnership 12 years ago this week, coming to terms on what was at the time the most lucrative deal given to a defender. Dwight Freeney‘s six-year, $72MM extension proved to be a good investment for the Colts, and I looked at how everything went down.
    • A year before Freeney’s megadeal, Jason Peters signed his first extension. I recalled how that contract soon became a divisive issue for Peters and the Bills and surveyed the fallout from Peters’ subsequent trade to the Eagles.
  • Debuting PFR’s “Make-or-Break Year” series, Zach studied the curious case of fifth-year Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker. While stumbling in and out of Adam Gase’s doghouse for years, the former first-round pick stayed with the now-rebuilding Dolphins on a one-year extension/pay cut. Will the new-look Dolphins finally find value in the 2015 draftee?
  • Lastly, Micah Powell asked PFR readers which of the 2018 playoff teams is set to take a tumble. While the Cowboys’ staying power is generating skepticism, the Ravens’ loss of stalwart defenders and reliance on the run game made them the runaway leaders for the team set to take a step back.

 

This Date In Transactions History: Bills Extend Jason Peters

July 14th, 2019 at 3:08pm CST by Sam Robinson

Entering his 16th season, Jason Peters has signed several NFL contracts. The Eagles recently gave their longtime left tackle another extension, this one through the 2020 season. But the first of Peters’ many extension agreements occurred on this date 13 years ago.

On July 14, 2006, the Bills and their UDFA find agreed to terms on a contract that eventually led to the parties splitting up. Peters signed a five-year, $15MM extension during the ’06 offseason, this coming after the Bills tendered him a contract worth $425K. Soon outplaying the teams of his $3MM-AAV deal, Peters became a disgruntled Bill.

The Bills initially took a flier on the former college tight end and defensive end, and this only came to be because of lobbying by the future All-Pro blocker’s agent, and stashed him on their practice squad for most of the 2004 season. Buffalo broke Peters in on special teams before turning to him as its starting right tackle for much of the ’05 slate. Peters had supplanted underwhelming former top-five pick Mike Williams as Buffalo’s top right tackle, and the Bills made the move to lock the emerging talent up the following offseason. The team then moved Peters to the left side midway through the ’06 campaign. That ultimately proved to be a short-term arrangement.

Dissatisfaction over a $3.25MM salary prompted Peters to hold out in 2008, and after he begrudgingly returned to his Bills post that season, the Eagles came in with a trade offer to acquire Peters just before the 2009 draft. The Bills received 2009 first- and fourth-round picks, along with a 2010 sixth-rounder, in the swap. They used the first of those selections to draft future long-term center Eric Wood 28th overall. Philadelphia handed Peters a six-year, $60MM extension, beginning a fruitful era for their offensive line.

Buffalo went through a few left tackles since Peters’ departure, most notably Cordy Glenn, while Peters has started 127 games as an Eagle — fifth-most in franchise history by a pure offensive lineman. Peters ended up making two Pro Bowls with the Bills and seven with the Eagles, also receiving two first-team All-Pro honors in Philly. The Eagles also extended their 37-year-old left-edge protector in 2014, 2017 and 2019.

This Date In Transactions History: Dwight Freeney

July 13th, 2019 at 2:54pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Colts formed a long-term pass-rushing partnership on this day 12 years ago, finalizing a landmark Dwight Freeney contract. After extending Robert Mathis in 2006, the Colts took care of their cornerstone defensive end the following summer.

On July 13, 2007, Indianapolis inked Freeney to a six-year, $72MM extension that, at the time, represented the biggest contract for a defender in NFL history. Freeney, then 27, received a $30MM signing bonus on a deal that was backloaded to soften the cap burdens in its first two seasons. Freeney’s $37MM-plus in three-year earnings usurped Richard Seymour‘s $28MM three-year figure, which had paced the defender market at the time.

The then-defending Super Bowl champion Colts, who had Mathis on a contract worth $30MM over five years, used their franchise tag on Freeney earlier that year. That tender in 2007 came in at $9.43MM. At this point, both Freeney and Mathis were locked up for the next four seasons together. While the latter ended up outlasting the former in Indianapolis, Freeney made a sizable impact over the course of his deal.

Although Freeney registered only 5.5 sacks during Indy’s Super Bowl title season, and just 3.5 in an injury-shortened ’07, the Syracuse alum rewarded the Colts in the late aughts and early 2010s. Freeney recorded 43.5 sacks from 2008-11, earning Pro Bowl recognition in each season. Equipped with some of the best speed (4.48 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the 2002 Combine) of any pass rusher in NFL history, the former No. 11 overall pick ended his Colts career with a then-franchise-record 107.5 sacks while also forcing 43 fumbles. He played in 17 playoff games (including two Super Bowls) with the franchise, adding nine more sacks in the postseason.

Freeney, who finished his 11-year Colts career with three first-team All-Pro honors, played out the contract before signing with the Chargers in 2013. He ended up playing for the Bolts, Cardinals, Falcons, Lions and Seahawks over the next five seasons, before retiring at age 38. Freeney (125.5 sacks) and Mathis (123) ended their careers adjacent to one another on the all-time sack list, in the Nos. 18 and 19 positions.

Extension Candidate: Shelby Harris

July 12th, 2019 at 8:34pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Broncos have established some continuity on their defensive line over the past two seasons. Super Bowl-era holdover Derek Wolfe has anchored the unit for years, and Adam Gotsis enters his fourth season. Both Shelby Harris and Zach Kerr are back for third Denver slates. With the exception of Kerr, each enters a contract year.

Although Wolfe is this group’s biggest name, Harris presents the most interesting extension candidacy. The Broncos’ projected starting nose tackle has gone from Raiders afterthought to being out of football in 2016 to ending 2018 as one of the most effective defensive tackles in the game (on a per-play basis). Pro Football Focus graded Harris as its No. 9 interior defender last season, and the Broncos responded by applying a second-round tender ($3.095MM).

Set for his age-28 season, Harris is set to become a primary first-stringer for the first time in his career. The Broncos did not re-sign two-year nose starter Domata Peko. Harris registered 5.5 sacks in 2017 as well and will be in position to approach that total as a starter. His breakthrough 2018, which included a game-winning interception of Ben Roethlisberger, did come on only 391 snaps in 16 games. That total was the lowest of Denver’s five-man defensive line rotation last season, and the team may want to see how Harris performs with a bigger workload before making a long-term commitment. Another quality campaign will make Harris an intriguing commodity on the 2020 market, should he reach free agency.

The former 2014 seventh-round pick has expressed a desire for a Broncos extension, and it seems likely the team opts to retain at least one of its starting linemen beyond 2019. Only Kerr, defensive end Dre’Mont Jones and roster-bubble cog DeMarcus Walker are signed beyond this season, among the team’s notable D-linemen.

It might not cost the Broncos too much to retain Harris, with only one 3-4 defensive tackle (Chicago’s Eddie Goldman) making more than $5MM annually. However, 4-3 noses like Damon Harrison, Dontari Poe and Star Lotulelei earn between $9-$10MM annually, creating a more defined price range. While Harris sees time at defensive end as well, his primary role is inside. Of course, the one team that did recently see value in paying a 3-4 nose employed Vic Fangio as its defensive coordinator.

The new Broncos HC may hold this role in higher regard than many teams, and the franchise’s post-2019 defense does not have much in the way of front-seven salary obligations. Von Miller, whose cap number spikes to $25.6MM next year thanks to a past restructure, is the only front-seven player on the Broncos’ 2020 cap sheet at north of $7.5MM.

Playing in Fangio’s system, Harris could work his way toward Goldman’s $10.5MM-AAV number. Although the Broncos have been stingy at this position in the recent past, letting Terrance Knighton walk after his $2MM-per-year deal expired and declining Sylvester Williams‘ 2017 option, they will have some decisions to make about how they distribute their D-line money soon. These circumstances put Harris in a favorable spot entering his walk year.

Release Candidate: Redskins OL Ereck Flowers

July 11th, 2019 at 1:00pm CST by Zachary Links

With little in the way of options at the tackle position, are the Redskins really in a position to release a former first-round pick who just celebrated his 25th birthday? The short answer is no, but it’s still possible that Ereck Flowers could wind up out of work between now and September. 

The film on Flowers is not inspiring – he failed to protect Eli Manning in New York despite being given three full seasons as the team’s starter. When things fizzled with the Giants, Flowers reunited with Tom Coughlin in Jacksonville and didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his seven games as the team’s starting tackle.

With a need at guard, the Redskins inked Flowers to a one-year, $3.2MM deal to help shore up the interior. Later, their plans for Flowers were interrupted when Trent Williams pushed for a relocation, forcing Flowers to take reps at tackle in practice.

To recap: The Redskins are thin on the offensive line, Flowers is guaranteed $1.5MM for the year, and they may need someone other than Williams to hold down the most important spot on the front five. Still, Flowers hasn’t inspired much confidence since leaving the University of Miami and the left guard spot that he was supposed to fill could be occupied by fourth-round rookie Wes Martin.

Flowers could turn things around in training camp and show the Redskins that he is deserving of a major role up front. Or, if Flowers continues his so-so spring play, he could wind up on the chopping block. If Flowers doesn’t cut the mustard, the Redskins may release him to save $1.7MM and look to the trade market for veteran help.

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