Community Tailgate: AFC Wild Card Race
As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.
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With two weeks to go (plus the Week 15 Sunday night and Monday night games), six teams have already clinched their playoff berths. The Panthers, Cardinals, Packers, and Seahawks will be playing in the postseason in the NFC, and Patriots and Bengals have guaranteed spots in the AFC.
While that means half of the playoff spots have been filled, there are still a group of teams fighting for those final six postseason berths this season. In the NFC one of those spots will go to the winner of the NFC East, while the Vikings heave a nice lead over the rest of the also rans in that conference. Atlanta could potentially sneak in if they end up tied with both the Vikings and the Seahawks, but the Vikings own the head-to-head advantage.
In the AFC there is a little more drama. One of those four available spots will belong to the winner of the AFC South, which will be either the Texans or Colts. The Texans have the advantage after winning head-to-head today, but with quarterback woes nothing is guaranteed over the next two weeks.
The Chiefs, Steelers, and Jets are all in the running for a wild-card berth. At 9-5 across the board, all three teams have put themselves in a great position record wise to make the playoffs. The Bills and Raiders would be the closest wild-card competitors, and both have been mathematically eliminated with losses today.
The Jets are currently on the outside looking in, despite having identical overall records. Should all three teams finish with the same record, the Chiefs and Steelers will get the nod via tiebreakers. The Chiefs prevail in a three-way tie based on conference record, and the Steelers get in over the Jets based on record in common games.
The Jets also have arguably the toughest remaining matchup as they face the Patriots in Week 16. Kansas City gets the Browns and Raiders, while the Steelers finish with the Ravens and Browns. It would seem that the Jets would have to beat the Patriots and the Bills, and hope either the Chiefs or Pittsburgh drop a game. If the Jets lose to the Patriots, they would need to beat the Bills and hope one of those teams go winless the rest of the season.
Two of those three teams will likely find themselves playing in the first round of the playoffs, but there is still a chance all three teams make it into the tournament. If the Chiefs were to win the AFC West outright, the Jets could tie the Broncos and would own certain tiebreakers over them, depending on how exactly things break out around the league. It seems unlikely as the Broncos have been presumed AFC West champs for a while, but a tough game against the Bengals followed by a Week 17 matchup with San Diego could knock them off their perch.
What do you think? How do you the see the last two weeks of the regular season playing out in the AFC? Who are your picks for the two wild card teams? Can the Chiefs overtake the Broncos in the AFC West, leaving the Jets with another chance to get in? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts!
AFC Notes: Dolphins, Steelers, Jaguars
The Dolphins will watch the playoffs from their couches for the seventh straight season largely because they’ve cycled through various underwhelming choices at head coach and quarterback during that span. Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald offers a solution for each spot: Sean Payton and Drew Brees.
Both Payton and Brees are still under contract in New Orleans beyond this season (Payton for two years, Brees for one), but there are rumblings that Payton will search for another job during the offseason. Thus, he could end up in Miami – which isn’t expected to promote interim head coach Dan Campbell. Should Payton attempt to take a position elsewhere, the Saints will expect compensation for him. If the Dolphins ends up as Payton’s next team, Salguero believes they should be willing to package as much as a first-round pick in 2016, a first-rounder in ’17, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill to ensure that the Saints put Brees in the deal with Payton.
Salguero’s proposal would make sense for the Saints, who are in cap jail and nowhere near contention. They’d get Tannehill – who has shown potential, is nine years younger than Brees (37 in January), and under team control through 2020 – and a couple of valuable draft choices to aid in a rebuild. The Dolphins would be surrendering a boatload in hopes of ending their playoff drought, but Salguero thinks owner Stephen Ross would be a proponent of such a move because Ross has tried something similar in the past. As Salguero details, Ross attempted to hire then-Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh in 2011 and wanted Harbaugh to convince his QB, Andrew Luck, to enter the draft. It didn’t work then, but Salguero sees his idea as a win-win for both Ross’ Dolphins and the Saints.
In the event Salguero’s suggestion becomes a reality, it would mean Brees finally ends up in a Dolphins uniform – something that nearly happened almost a decade ago. Instead the team traded for Daunte Culpepper, whose time in Miami was a failure. On the other hand, Brees became a Super Bowl winner and a Hall of Fame lock in New Orleans.
More from the AFC:
- The 8-5 Steelers are currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture, but they might end up as the conference’s scariest team if they get into the postseason, Bob McManaman of the AZCentral.com opines. The Steelers are getting hot at the right time, having averaged 35 points per game and nearly 500 yards per contest over their last five, and this year’s AFC powers have looked vulnerable of late. New England has come back to earth somewhat thanks to injury issues, while Cincinnati may have lost star quarterback Andy Dalton for the season and Denver doesn’t appear to have a solution under center. All of that could open the door for the Steelers to ultimately make their first Super Bowl appearance since 2010-11.
- The concussion protocol the NFL established in 2013 is garnering positive reviews from the Steelers, who say it protects them from themselves, Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. “If you leave it up to us, there’s never nothing wrong with us,” cornerback William Gay stated, implying that he and his fellow players will always look for an excuse to stay in a game. With the concussion protocol in place, though, that can’t happen anymore. Said fullback Will Johnson, “I have trust in their concussion protocol and that they are going to make sure that I am completely safe before they let me go out and participate. I’ve always felt comfortable. I know it is a hot topic of conversation right now, but I have never had a problem.”
- Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley‘s decision in 2013 to retain receivers coach Jerry Sullivan, a holdover from the prior staff, is paying off, according to Ryan O’Halloran of Jacksonville.com. Sullivan deserves at least some credit for helping turn a pair of second-year wideouts – Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns – into big-time threats, especially given that neither was a first-round pick. Robinson was a second-rounder, and Hurns somehow went undrafted. The two have combined for 127 catches, 1,900-plus yards and 20 touchdowns this season. “On Sundays, he’s like the voice in my head,” Robinson said of Sullivan.
NFL Practice Squad Updates: 12/18/15
Here are today’s practice squad signings, cuts, and other notes from around the NFL:
Indianapolis Colts
- Signed: DT Kelcy Quarles (press release via team)
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Increased salary: DL Caushaud Lyons (Twitter link via Field Yates of ESPN.com)
- Earning $25,588 per week
San Diego Chargers
- Signed: QB Brad Sorensen (Twitter link via Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Increased salary: RB Mike James (Twitter link via Yates)
- Earning $34,412 per week
Extra Points: Gailey, Chargers, Steelers, Gordon
Chan Gailey had been out of the NFL for two seasons when newly-hired Jets coach Todd Bowles offered him the offensive coordinator gig. At 63-year-olds, Gailey didn’t even hesitate to accept the job. Why didn’t he need time to consider the position?
“There’s one big reason, and it’s a personal reason,” Gailey told ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini. “I want to win a championship.”
After nearly two decades in the league and four Super Bowl appearances (three with the Broncos, one with the Steelers), Gailey had yet to win a championship.
Let’s take a look at some more assorted notes from around the league as we wrap up this Wednesday evening…
- In an interesting piece for FOX Sports, Alex Marvez explores why – unlike their offensive and defensive counterparts – special teams coordinators hardly ever receive consideration for NFL head coaching jobs.
- Former Chargers safety Jimmy Wilson was the notable name to clear waivers today, tweets Michael Gehlken the San Diego Union-Tribune. The 29-year-old is now free to sign anywhere.
- Cornerback Stanley Jean-Baptiste worked out for the Steelers today, reports ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter (via Twitter). The 25-year-old was the Saints’ second-round pick in 2014.
- Embattled Browns wideout Josh Gordon is eligible to apply for reinstatement on February 3rd, and Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reports (via Twitter) that the receiver has been doing “outstanding” during his yearlong suspension.
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Extra Points: Bowe, Texans, O’Brien
Browns wide receiver Dwayne Bowe spoke to Mary Kay Cabot of The Plain Dealer about the hardships he has dealt with this season and what has gone wrong for him. This past offseason, Bowe inked a two-year deal worth $12.5MM, including $9MM guaranteed. So far, he hasn’t done much to justify that contract. He surmised that he was never able to learn the new scheme installed by offensive coordinator John DeFilippo thanks to an injury during training camp.
“When I got hurt, it set me back as far as the coach getting to know what I can do and things like that,” he said. “I just got so far behind in the playbook and they added most of the main content when I was out. When I was got back, they were so far ahead, and to go back for me would’ve set the whole offense back.”
Here’s more from around the NFL:
- Texans owner Bob McNair says he has no current plans to make any significant changes to team’s GM or head coach roles after this season, Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle tweets. “Does he make mistakes? Sure,” McNair said of head coach Bill O’Brien (link). “But most of his mistakes haven’t been that great and he’s been able to overcome them.” When asked if the franchise must invest in a quarterback this offseason via the draft, McNair said (link), “Absolutely. Yes. The answer is yes.”
- James Harrison, William Gay, DeAngelo Williams, and Heath Miller are all on the wrong side of 30 but they’re all providing value to the Steelers, as The Associated Press writes.
- German Football League MVP Tyler Davis is trying out for the Dolphins on Wednesday, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (on Twitter). Davis plays both wide receiver and defensive back, so it’s not immediately clear whether he’ll be showing his skills on offense, defense, or both in Miami.
AFC Notes: Parker, Osemele, Bengals, Bills
Continuing a trend that the Miami Herald’s Armando Salguero’s observed throughout this decade, a disconnect between the Dolphins‘ front office and coaching staff’s formed based on the usage of the team’s draft picks.
This season, Miami’s front office wanted first-round pick DeVante Parker to play more often than he did prior to becoming a regular down the stretch, Salguero reports.
Previous philosophical differences involved 2013 first-rounder Dion Jordan and 2013 fourth-round selection Dion Sims, whom then-GM Jeff Ireland wanted Joe Philbin to play more than he was, with a similar disconnect occurring two years prior in the form of Tony Sparano and Ireland disagreeing on which players the team would cut prior to the start of the 2011 season.
Such disharmony has been new to the Dolphins, with previous coaches Don Shula, Jimmy Johnson or Nick Saban having full decision-making autonomy. Salguero adds that new personnel man Mike Tannenbaum did not escalate this push for Parker to see the field sooner as Ireland did with Sparano and Philbin regarding former prospects.
Let’s look at some more AFC items as Week 14 shifts into its night-game sector.
- Kelechi Osemele ventured back to tackle Sunday in place of the underwhelming James Hurst and wants to stay there, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports. Osemele, who began his career at the Ravens‘ right tackle before becoming one of the NFL’s premier left guards over the past two-plus seasons, moved to left tackle in a Ravens effort to increase their line’s overall talent level. This is significant because the former second-round pick will be one of the top offensive linemen available in free agency if he does not reach an accord with the Ravens before the new league year begins. The former Iowa State cog started 38 games at left tackle for the Cyclones. Osemele expressed desire to be Baltimore’s left tackle of the future. “I sure hope so,” Osemele told media about a desire to stay on the edge. “I would definitely love to be the guy for the Ravens into the future, as long as I can keep performing at a high level.” Baltimore placed high-priced, but injury-prone left tackle Eugene Monroe on IR on Saturday. Signed to a five-year, $37.5MM contract in 2014, Monroe has $6.6MM worth of dead money left on his deal.
- If Andy Dalton misses the rest of the season as he’s expected to, it will cost him a chance at a $5MM escalator in his contract, according to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry (on Twitter). The Bengals‘ starting quarterback needs to play at least 80% of the snaps, which he’s done for four straight seasons, to earn this bonus.
- Conversely, Michael Crabtree‘s enjoying a better week financially. The Raiders‘ newly extended wideout earned an additional $400K by catching four passes Sunday, ESPN.com’s Field Yates reports (via Twitter), giving him 70 for the season.
- An unpenalized threat resided at the root of the Bengals-Steelers pregame fight, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reports. After Vontaze Burfict‘s tackle of Le’Veon Bell resulted in the star Pittsburgh runner’s season-ending knee injury in the teams’ previous meeting, Steelers linebacker Vince Williams sent out a tweet that Burfict and other Bengals regarded as a death threat, Florio writes. Burfict confronted Williams, who previously deleted the tweet and apologized, before the game and took action because the NFL didn’t, Andrew Whitworth told PFT. Florio writes that Williams’ social media threat violates the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy.
- The 15 penalties whistled against the Bills in their loss to the Eagles riled up the coaching staff to the point that one of them can be heard screaming at the officials while walking to the locker room that the 15 infractions — for 101 yards — were a “disgrace to the NFL,” Joe Buscaglia of WKBW reports (on Twitter). Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk points out Bills first-year defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman as the likely culprit.
North Notes: Browns, Austin, Wolf
Browns head coach Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer will not both be back with the team next season, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (article via Conor Orr of NFL.com). Pettine had hinted at some discord between the Cleveland front office and coaching staff last week, but apparently the situation is more toxic than originally believed.
According to Rapoport, the coaching staff believes the scouting department does not provide the team enough information to effectively execute the game plan, and the scouting department believes the coaching staff does not effectively utilize its personnel. Neither the front office nor the coaches, of course, are without fault. Farmer has blown two consecutive drafts, which has hamstrung Pettine’s efforts quite a bit, but Pettine has not been an especially savvy in-game strategist and has failed to establish the hard-nosed, defensive-minded mentality he promised when he was hired. If owner Jimmy Haslam chooses to keep one of the Pettine/Farmer duo, the smart money may be on Pettine, but it seems clear that at least one of those men will be out of a job at the end of the season, and perhaps both will be looking for a new position.
Let’s take a look at some more notes from the league’s north divisions:
- Although Kyle Meinke of MLive.com believes Lions head coach Jim Caldwell‘s fate is sealed–no one believes he will return to Detroit next season–the futures of defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter are more uncertain. Austin, for the second season in a row, has done an excellent job leading the Lions’ defense, and although Cooter has less of a track record, he has successfully turned around an offense that crashed and burned under Joe Lombardi. If Austin does not get a head coaching position this offseason–he could even wind up as the Lions’ head coach–he is certainly a viable candidate to return as DC, and Meinke believes Cooter is deserving of an extended look as OC.
- Though Austin will be a candidate for the Lions‘ head coaching position, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes that current Bears OC Adam Gase will be a “top target” for the club.
- Packers pro personnel director Eliot Wolf is a hot name among teams searching for a GM this offseason, but per La Canfora, it is highly unlikely Wolf will be leaving Green Bay. Wolf, who has steadily risen through the ranks of the Packers organization, is seen as the heir apparent to current GM Ted Thompson, and he would be exceedingly selective if he were to consider any position outside of Green Bay. La Canfora’s report does not come as much of a surprise, as Wolf has been a popular GM candidate for several years now.
- Although Steelers tackle Mike Adams is technically in the final year of his rookie contract, he will remain under club control in 2016, according to Mark Kaboly of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Adams was placed on the PUP list before the start of training camp, he never returned to the active roster, and he was not removed from the PUP list, which means that his contract will be tolled and he will be back with Pittsburgh in 2016 at the same salary he earned in 2015 (roughly $873K). Adams could still hit the open market if the Steelers choose to cut him, of course, but given the team’s lack of depth at tackle, Kaboly does not see that as a real option.
Extra Points: Comp Picks, Salary Cap, Titans
NFL agents aren’t happy with the league’s decision to allow teams to trade compensatory draft picks beginning in 2017, according to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link). As Cole outlines, the move makes compensatory picks more valuable, meaning teams may be more inclined to try to collect those picks by not investing heavily on free agents, particularly their own. It’s not hard to see why agents wouldn’t be thrilled with that development.
Here are a few more Wednesday odds and ends from around the NFL:
- The NFL’s salary cap figures to exceed $150MM in 2016, with one source telling Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk that it could get up to $155MM+. As Florio notes, once you factor in player benefit costs, 2016 could be the first year when teams are spending more than $200MM each on players.
- Nick Korte of Over the Cap previews the 2016 free agent market for offensive linemen, suggesting that there are several players that are candidates for five-year investments, including Seahawks tackle Russell Okung, Steelers tackle Kelvin Beachum, and Ravens guard Kelechi Osemele.
- Ruston Webster‘s tenure as Titans general manager has been much-maligned, but as Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com writes, Webster has started to turn things around in Tennessee, as evidenced by his offseason moves. Webster lead the charge to draft quarterback Marcus Mariota, brought in solid defensive free agents Brian Orakpo and Perrish Cox, and increased the club’s depth.
- While cautioning that nearly $9MM per season is a bit extravagant for a No. 2 receiver, Frank Schwab of Yahoo! Sports lauds the Raiders‘ extension of Michael Crabtree, pointing to soft factors in his reasoning. It wasn’t long ago, writes Schwab, that Oakland’s team culture had become so toxic that players like Jared Veldheer and Lamarr Houston refused to even consider re-signing with the club.
- Another recently extended Raider, fullback/running back Jamize Olawale, is highly valued by the Oakland staff due to his versatility, writes Scott Bair of CSNBayArea.com. Olawale, who would have been a restricted free agent after this season, signed a three-year extension yesterday. As head coach Jack Del Rio notes in the piece, the new Raiders regime tried to e open-minded when taking over earlier this year, which allowed unheralded players like Olawale to emerge.
Dallas Robinson contributed to this post.
Workout Notes: Steelers, Bucs, Colts, Browns
British rugby player Tom Burgess has continued his wave of tryouts for NFL clubs, per Adam Schefter of ESPN (Twitter link), who reports that Burgess worked out for the Steelers today. Burgess, who’s also auditioned for the Giants, Jets, and Bills, could be line for a futures contract at the end of the season, following in the footsteps of fellow international star Jarryd Hayne.
Here’s at look at the rest of today’s workouts as clubs seek to get a feel for available free agents and update their emergency lists:
- The Buccaneers worked out several players today, including linebacker Willie Jefferson, cornerback Garry Peters, defensive end Nordly Capi, and cornerback De’Vante Bausby, according to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Peters, a Clemson alum, was a favorite UDFA of several draftniks this spring.
- Running back Daniel Thomas is searching for new opportunity after being released by the Bears earlier in the year, and he earned a tryout with the Colts today, per Wilson (on Twitter). Thomas, whose most notable time came with the Dolphins, could be an option for Indianapolis, who is looking to replace the injured Ahmad Bradshaw.
- The Browns brought in three players for an audition, says Wilson (via Twitter), who reports that receivers R.J. Harris and Marcus Lucas, plus safety Phillip Thomas, worked out for Cleveland. A fourth player involved in the tryout — defensive back Tim Scott — was signed to the club’s practice squad yesterday.
- A large group of receivers worked out for the Seahawks, including Rashaad Carter, Desmond Lawrence, Jordan Leslie, Colin Lockett, and Larry Pinkard, in addition to quarterback Dustin Vaughan, per Wilson (Twitter link).
- The Bears visited with receiver Kyle Prater, who was a Saints UDFA out of Northwestern earlier this year, according to Wilson (Twitter link). Prater, 23, was named the No. 1 receiver of the 2010 recruiting class.
AFC North Notes: Harrison, Manziel, Steelers
Following an up-and-down 2013 season with the Bengals, veteran linebacker James Harrison looked like he was on his way to retirement. However, he changed course when an opportunity arose to rejoin the Steelers, and in his last two seasons, Harrison has been an effective part-time player for the club, most recently racking up three sacks against the Colts on Sunday night.
There aren’t many NFL players born in the 1970s who are still active, and it’s possible that this year could be Harrison’s latest. However, the 37-year-old doesn’t sound ready to call it a career quite yet, as Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes.
“You know, I still got another year on the contract,” Harrison said. “So we will play this year out; I’m not even thinking about that at this point to be honest with you. I can’t think any further ahead than the next game. We’re right now in a situation where we have to.”
As Harrison and the Steelers prepare for an AFC North showdown against the Bengals, and attempt to continue their push for a playoff spot, let’s check in on the latest out of the division:
- While head coach Mike Pettine wouldn’t go so far as to say that the Browns will have a zero-tolerance policy for Johnny Manziel going forward, he did admit that repercussions would likely be harsh if the quarterback has another off-field incident (Twitter link via Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal).
- In his examination of the NFL’s most underpaid extension-eligible players, Joel Corry of CBSSports.com identifies Steelers receiver Antonio Brown, Browns tight end Gary Barnidge, and Ravens guard Kelechi Osemele as a few AFC North players who fit the bill. Barnidge and Osemele are headed for unrestricted free agency, and Brown could very well get an extension from Pittsburgh this offseason, so I don’t expect the trio to remain underpaid for long.
- Veteran running back DeAngelo Williams has been excellent in an increased role for the Steelers, having averaged 137.2 yards from scrimmage over his last five games. As Corry observes (via Twitter), Williams’ performance not only helps Pittsburgh win now — it also provides the team some leverage in upcoming extension negotiations with starting running back Le’Veon Bell, who will be entering a contract year in 2016.