PFR Originals: 5/28/17 – 6/4/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff:
- Given that Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor is entering the final year of his contract, Connor Byrne examined what kind of extension the All Pro defensive back could land if Seattle chooses to retain him for the long haul. While Reshad Jones‘ four-year, $48MM deal with the Dolphins could serve as a basis for talks, the Seahawks might have pause about handing Chancellor — on the verge of 30 and with a concerning injury history — that type of money.
- 10 quarterbacks were selected in the 2017 draft, starting with Mitch Trubisky at No. 2 (Bears) to Chad Kelly at No. 253 (Broncos), leading Connor to ask which rookie signal-caller will have the largest impact during the upcoming season. Thus far, the Texans’ Deshaun Watson leads the poll with more than 40% of the vote.
- The Jets are still shopping defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, so Ben Levine asked where the former first-round pick will be playing in 2017. Although New York reportedly offered Richardson to teams such as the Colts, Seahawks, and Buccaneers, most PFR readers Richardson will be suiting up for an unidentified club next season.
Jets Likely To Ask Demario Davis For Paycut
The Jets re-acquired linebacker Demario Davis last week in a trade that sent safety Calvin Pryor to the Browns, but unless Davis accepts a reduction on his $3.7MM base salary, he isn’t likely to make New York’s final roster, according to Rich Cimini of ESPN.com.
None of Davis’ 2017 salary, so the Jets could cut him without incurring any dead money on their salary cap. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote last week, the trade was odd on its face: given that Pryor is due a salary of roughly $1.6MM for the upcoming season, New York is essentially paying $2.1MM in order to rid itself of Pryor.
If the Jets do opt to release Davis, the club would be in the same position it would have been in had they simply cut Pryor. Because none of Davis’ money would accelerate onto their cap, the only remnants of the trade on the Jets’ book would be Pryor’s ~$1.1MM in dead money. That total would have remained on New York’s cap whether it traded or waived Pryor.
Davis, 28, is an strange fit for a Jets club that already employs veteran David Harris and 2016 first-round pick Darron Lee at linebacker, but New York is familiar with Davis given that he played for Gang Green from 2012-15. While Davis could conceivably serve as a backup and a special teams player (he played on a quarter of the Jets’ ST snaps during his last season with the team), he isn’t likely to do so on a $3.7MM salary.
AFC Rumors: Steelers, Jets, C. Kelly
Steelers star RB Le’Veon Bell has yet to sign his franchise tender, and Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk wonders if the club would consider rescinding the tender, just as the Panthers did with Josh Norman last year. The closer we get to training camp, the more difficult it would be for Bell land a contract on the open market that pays him even $10MM in 2017, much less the $12.1MM he stands to receive under the franchise tender, and if Pittsburgh were to rescind the tender late in the summer, Bell’s financial prospects would only worsen. In the meantime, the Steelers’ other backs will get ample opportunity to prove their worth, and Florio speculates that Pittsburgh could decide to save millions by severing ties with Bell if its other options could combine to approximate Bell’s production.
But given that the rest of the Steelers’ RB corps features the likes of Knile Davis, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and rookie James Conner, that notion seems almost laughable. Even if the Steelers were considering rescinding the tender, it’s not surprising that there have been no reports about it, as such decisions are made and executed swiftly to avoid the possibility that the player will catch wind of it and pounce on the tender. Nonetheless, if Bell is not lined up behind Ben Roethlisberger on Week 1 (assuming he’s not injured or suspended), it would be the surprise of the season.
Now for more from the AFC:
- Speaking of Davis, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that the Arkansas product, whom the Steelers signed as a free agent this offseason, has a good chance of landing the team’s No. 3 RB spot behind Bell and Conner. Third-string backs have been important players for Pittsburgh in recent years, and Davis’ experience returning kickoffs could give him the edge over Toussaint.
- New Jets OC John Morton, unlike his predecessor, Chan Gailey, utilizes two-back sets, and the only fullbacks currently on New York’s roster are the unproven Julian Howsare and undrafted rookie Anthony Firkser. As such, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com believes the team could add a fullback like Zach Line, whom the team expressed interest in earlier this offseason, in the near future.
- Darryl Slater of NJ.com says Jets QB Christian Hackenberg has shown some progress in OTAs, though he is still struggling with accuracy and turnovers. If the team can get him some game action, and if he flashes some potential, Slater believes the Jets may refrain from drafting a QB in 2018. If not, look for Gang Green to use another early selection on a signal-caller next year.
- Broncos rookie QB Chad Kelly, this year’s Mr. Irrelevant, is close to getting back on the field, as Mike Klis of 9News.com writes. Kelly is coming off an injury to his right throwing wrist and his second ACL operation on his right knee, and while the Ole Miss product likely wouldn’t have been a factor in Denver’s QB competition this year anyway, he could have a legitimate chance at the job in 2018 or 2019.
- Texans rookie Deante’ Gray, who signed with the club as a UDFA last month and who has a chance of cracking the back end of Houston’s WR corps, is expected to be out until training camp with a Grade 2 partially torn hamstring, as Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle writes.
- Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union compares the career trajectory of Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith, who is entering his contract year, with that of Browns linebacker Christian Kirksey, who recently signed a four-year, $38MM extension with Cleveland. The two players, who were both drafted in 2014, have similar numbers through this point in their careers, so O’Halloran suggests that Kirksey’s deal will be a good foundation for a new Smith contract if the Jags are open to extending Smith before the season starts.
NFC Rumors: DGB, E. Thomas, H. Smith
Dorial Green-Beckham, whom the Eagles acquired in a mid-August trade last year, believes Philadelphia has not seen him at his best. After all, he had to learn a new offense on the fly after the trade, and then he had to adjust to a new starting quarterback a few weeks later. But as Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes, DGB has an uphill battle just to make the team, let alone make a major impact. The Eagles signed Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith in free agency, they spent mid-round draft choices on Mack Hollins and Shelton Gibson, and Jordan Matthews looks to remain with the club after being the subject of offseason trade rumors. All five of those players are roster locks, which means that Green-Beckham will battle former first-round selection Nelson Agholor — whom the Eagles have more of a commitment to from a salary and draft standpoint — for the final wide receiver spot. So, barring injury or a transcendent training camp, DGB’s days in Philadelphia could be numbered.
Now for more from the NFC:
- Steve Wyche of NFL.com reports that Seahawks safety Earl Thomas is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a broken left left leg, and head coach Pete Carroll has no doubts that Thomas will be at full speed in training camp. WR Tyler Lockett, who is also recovering from a broken leg, is not as far along as Thomas, but Carroll indicated that Locket is still “on schedule.”
- The Giants signed D.J. Fluker this offseason to help bolster an offensive line that was a major weakness last season. Fluker, whom the Chargers drafted as a tackle, shifted inside to guard over the past couple of seasons, but it was expected that he could at least compete for the Giants’ right tackle job this summer. But the Associated Press reports that Bobby Hart has manned right tackle during OTAs, which has relegated Fluker to John Jerry‘s backup at right guard.
- The Lions recently signed former division-rival Matt Asiata to complement their running back corps, but barring an injury, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press does not see Asiata making the team. Birkett expects Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick, Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington to be the Lions’ running backs, in that order, and he does not believe there is room for a fifth RB, even without a fullback.
- Vikings star safety Harrison Smith says his ankle is fully healed and is now a non-issue, per the Associated Press.
- Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune reports that Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is expected to return to Minnesota today, to visit his eye doctors tomorrow, and if all goes well, he will be coaching OTAs on Tuesday (Twitter links).
Andrew Luck Still On Track For Week 1
We have not heard much about Andrew Luck‘s recovery from offseason shoulder surgery, which is probably a good thing for Colts fans. Although the procedure itself was something of a surprise, given that club owner Jim Irsay had insisted during the 2016 season that Luck wouldn’t need surgery on the right shoulder injury that has bothered him the past two years, Luck was expected to be fully recovered by the start of training camp.
Mike Wells of ESPN.com says Luck is still on track to start the Colts’ Week 1 contest against the Rams, though he did not indicate whether the star signal-caller would be ready for camp. Wells simply wrote, “The Colts report to training camp at the end of July. It’ll be interesting to see if Luck is at the point by then where he can practice.”
The team itself has not provided any meaningful updates on Luck’s status. When asked about Luck during a May 31 exchange with the media, head coach Chuck Pagano said that Luck is “[d]oing great. I’ve got to give you the same thing. He’s doing well rehabbing every single day. He’s a coach out there on the field. He’s in the meetings. He’s doing everything but obviously taking snaps, but he’s taking every one of them from a mental standpoint.”
As Pagano suggested, Luck has been a regular at the Colts’ facility, but it is unclear what exactly his training regimen entails. Wells, though, surmises that no news is good news, and he fully expects to see Luck under center when the regular season rolls around.
After inking a record extension last summer, Luck completed 63.5 percent of passes, threw 31 touchdowns against 13 interceptions and piled up 4,240 yards in 15 games in 2016. Those numbers represented a significant revival for the 27-year-old Stanford product, who struggled mightily during a seven-game, injury-plagued 2015. If Luck is healthy in 2017, the Colts should reasonably expect to challenge for a playoff berth.
NFC Notes: Giants, Saints, Bears, Vikings
Veteran signal-caller Josh Johnson is likely to emerge as the Giants‘ backup quarterback in 2017, which means free agent signee Geno Smith is in danger of being released, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com. Johnson spent the entire 2016 campaign with Big Blue, and though he was only for two games, he earned the trust of Giants’ coaches. New York, meanwhile, would only incur $325K in dead money by parting ways with Smith. Third-round pick Davis Webb, of course, is slated to open the season as the Giants’ third-string quarterback.
- The Saints have now signed every member of their 2017 draft class aside from first-round offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk, and the Wisconsin product’s deal is on hold until he can pass a physical, reports Nick Underhill of the Advocate (Twitter links). Ramczyk, the 32nd overall selection, is dealing with a hip issue. New Orleans had been one of two clubs (along with the Rams) that hadn’t signed a draft pick before yesterday, and the reason for that delay was fiscal. The Saints picked up $7.8MM in cap space Thursday when Jairus Byrd‘s post-June 1 release was officially processed, giving the team a bit more breathing room to sign its rookies.
- While the Bears “would like nothing more” than to extend left tackle Charles Leno, it’s unclear if Chicago plans to open contract talks before the season gets underway, as Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune writes. Leno, 25, is certainly a success story, as the former seventh-round pick has started 32 games for the Bears over the past two seasons. He’s steadily improved, as well, and last year graded as the No. 41 tackle among 78 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. Chicago will get a relative bargain on Leno in 2017, as he’s due a base salary of only $1.797MM. A long-term deal could easily take Leno over the $10MM per year barrier, if not higher.
- Michael Floyd‘s one-year deal with the Vikings doesn’t contain any guaranteed money, but the veteran wideout can earn a pay bump through several incentives, as Ben Goessling of ESPN.com details. If Floyd maxes out his incentive-based by reaching 70 catches, 1,000 yards, or 12 touchdowns, he’ll bring in an extra $4.6MM. The bonuses start at $1.5MM, which Floyd can earn by hitting 40 receptions, 500 yards, or six touchdowns. None of that incentive money is on Minnesota’s salary cap for now, as it’s all considered “not likely to be earned” because Floyd didn’t reach even the lowest thresholds in 2016. Additionally, Floyd could struggle to hit the top rung of his incentive ladder given that he’s expected to face a suspension in 2017.
Saints DT Nick Fairley Has Heart Issue
Saints defensive tackle Nick Fairley has been sidelined from the club’s organized team activities with a heart issue that could threaten his career, according to Jennifer Hale of FOX Sports (Twitter link).
Fairley has dealt with this condition for his entire NFL career, as the issue was originally detected during the predraft process in 2011, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter links). The veteran defensive tackle recently saw a doctor who wanted to run further tests regarding the ailment, says Rapoport. Fairley has reportedly not communicated his health struggles with his New Orleans teammates, as Saints players who regularly speak with Fairley have not heard from him, tweets Mike Garafolo of NFL.com.
Fairley, 29, started 16 games and posted 6.5 sacks during his first campaign with the Saints, grading as the league’s No. 34 interior defender among 127 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. He re-signed with New Orleans this spring, inking a four-year, $28MM deal that contains $9MM in guarantees.
West Rumors: Maclin, Chiefs, 49ers, Cards
The news of Jeremy Maclin‘s release on Friday surprised much of the NFL world, and Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith was among those blindsided by the decision, as he tells Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star. “Shocked,” Smith said of Maclin’s departure. “Jeremy is a really good friend, an amazing teammate, so still kind of just processing that he’s not going to be in there with us, a guy that’s done a lot for us the last two years, a guy I’ve grown really close to.” Maclin, 29, averaged 66 receptions, 812 yards, and five touchdowns in two seasons catching passes from Smith.
Here’s more from the NFL’s two West divisions:
- Now that Maclin is a free agent, he could be a consideration for the 49ers, as Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com writes. San Francisco invested in one experienced wideout (Pierre Garcon) this offseason, but the rest of their receiving corps is relatively uninspiring. Marquise Goodwin, Jeremy Kerley, Bruce Ellington, Aldrick Robinson, and rookie Trent Taylor are among the 49ers’ other options at receiver. From a talent standpoint, Maclin would represent a clear upgrade, but it’s unclear if he prefers to sign on with a contending team. In the midst of a rebuild, San Francisco doesn’t figure to be overly competitive in 2017, meaning Maclin could look to latch on with a club closer to earning a postseason berth.
- Cardinals center A.Q. Shipley underwent core muscle surgery three weeks ago, and while he figures to miss organized team activities, Shipley will be ready for training camp, reports Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. The 31-year-old Shipley, who re-signed with Arizona on a two-year, $3.5MM deal in March, graded as the league’s No. 14 center in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. Reserve interior lineman Cole Toner is currently working as the Cardinals’ center in Shipley’s absence, per Somers.
- Former Villanova linebacker Austin Calitro worked out for the Falcons and Chiefs this week, according to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Calitro, who went undrafted earlier this year, signed with the Jets in May but lasted only 10 days on their roster. During his senior collegiate season, Calitro registered 85 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and three passes defensed.
Cowboys, Zack Martin Extension Talks On Hold
The Cowboys and guard Zack Martin aren’t expected to reach agreement on an extension in the near future, as negotiations won’t begin “in earnest” until later this summer, reports Todd Archer of ESPN.com.
The lack of urgency between Dallas and Martin isn’t entirely surprising, as the Cowboys control the All Pro offensive lineman through 2018 after exercising his fifth-year option earlier this year. But executive VP Stephen Jones called an eventual Martin extension a “big priority,” and Martin himself is in favor of a long-term deal.
“It would be huge,” Martin said. “I’m not real worried about that. I’m worried about playing. Obviously I’ll be here for hopefully a long time. These guys make it fun to come to work every day…Hopefully we can get something done.”
Martin, 26, has started all 48 games since joining Dallas three years ago, and has emerged as one of the league’s best guard on one of the NFL’s finest offensive lines. Playing alongside talents such as left tackle Tyron Smith and center Travis Frederick — each of whom are signed to long-term deals — Martin graded as the third-best guard of 2016, per Pro Football Focus.
As Archer notes, the Cowboys picked up $14MM in cap space today when Tony Romo‘s post-June 1 release was officially processed, but that savings doesn’t figure to be immediately utilized on a Martin extension. Based on Dallas’ precedents, Martin’s new deal figures to be “cap neutral,” meaning his 2017 cap charge won’t be altered.
North Notes: Steelers, Davis, Stafford, Pack
Despite Alejandro Villanueva continuing to attend Steelers OTAs, the left tackle and the team are still not on the same page regarding his contract, Bob Labriola of Steelers.com notes. Using a situation one-time Pittsburgh ERFA Willie Parker found himself in several years ago as a comparison, the Steelers writer advocates that Villanueva take what the team is offering to get some more money upfront. As an ERFA, Villanueva can make just $540K this season on the tender he hasn’t signed. But as a two-year starter for the Steelers, the former Army Ranger is obviously worth more than that. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk argues Villanueva should not accept a Steelers lowball offer and withhold his services this summer until the team submits a viable proposal. Nothing’s come out on what kind of deal the team has offered. The sides have talked since at least February on this pact, so this has reached impasse status.
Villanueva is a rare 28-year-old ERFA, and under the terms of his initial NFL contract, the would-be third-year starter won’t be able to become an unrestricted free agent until he’s 30 in 2019. Labriola notes Parker signed a three-year, $13.6MM deal to stay in Pittsburgh in the summer of 2006. As the going rate for linemen continues to rise as teams’ ability to develop them out of college becomes more difficult, Villanueva would have considerable value on the market. But his current circumstances could force him to make a decision soon.
Here’s the latest coming out of the North divisions.
- The common view around the league, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, is the Lions will make Matthew Stafford the league’s highest-paid quarterback by summer’s end. One NFL source said last month Stafford will wait for Derek Carr to sign his extension first and work off of that, and Birkett noting Stafford’s better body of work compared to the younger Carr puts him in a position to wait and command more money.
- Demario Davis did not have the speed the Browns wanted at their linebacker position, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer notes. The Browns traded their incumbent No. 1 middle linebacker to the Jets in exchange for Calvin Pryor. Davis is returning to the Jets and their 3-4 scheme. Cleveland is pivoting back to a 4-3 after hiring Gregg Williams, and while the Browns installed Davis as their primary middle ‘backer and moved 2016 breakout performer Christian Kirksey to the weak side, the team plans to use Kirksey and Jamie Collins in its nickel sets. As for the starting middle linebacker in the base alignment, the Browns may first turn to Tank Carder for now, per Pluto. Carder has been with the Browns for six years but has worked as a backup throughout that time.
- We heard earlier the Browns are considering using a 4-2-5 nickel-type look more frequently to help Jabrill Peppers — often a linebacker at Michigan — and Pluto notes the team does plan to bring a large dose of nickel sets this season. While the league has already gravitated toward passing-down sub-packages as offenses have spread out more in recent years, the Browns would seem to have personnel that fits better with this alignment. Especially after the team signed Jason McCourty to join Joe Haden and Jamar Taylor.
- Punter Jake Schum cleared waivers and will be transferred back to the Packers‘ IR list, according to the Associated Press. The Packers cut Schum earlier this week after he served as the punter last season in all 19 Green Bay games. It’s unclear what injury Schum sustained. UDFA Justin Vogel is the only punter on the team’s roster, but the Packers didn’t acquire Schum until August after using a waiver claim on him.