Month: March 2022

Latest On FA Pass Rushers

In the estimation of Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network (video link), the quality and depth of this year’s collegiate class of pass rushers could negatively impact their professional counterparts seeking new contracts. Some of the most notable names in that latter category include the CardinalsChandler Jones and the RamsVon Miller.

Rapoport believes that Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill genuinely wants to retain Jones (as we heard last month), but the franchise tag value for the four-time Pro Bowler would be roughly $25MM, so that option is not feasible for the Cards. As such, Jones will hit the open market, and given that there has been something of a strained relationship between player and team for several years, he could be playing elsewhere in 2022.

Meanwhile, Rapoport expects the Rams to do everything they can to retain Miller, who is, like Jones, prepared to test the open market. Of course, the reigning Super Bowl champs also have new contracts for Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald on their radar, so GM Les Snead will have his work cut out for him when trying to re-up his prized trade acquisition.

A less heralded (but much younger) option for clubs in need of pass rush help could be Chargers OLB Uchenna Nwosu. As Aaron Wilson of Pro Football Network reports, the Bolts and Nwosu have mutual interest in a new contract, but despite Nwosu’s desire to remain with his hometown team, the money will need to be right. Wilson suggests that the 25-year-old is targeting a contract with an average annual value between $10MM-$13MM, which would seem to be a fair price for an ascending player who put together a strong 2021 campaign — five sacks, eight TFL, 17 QB hits, and an interception — despite playing through a serious labrum injury.

The Colts, Packers, Bills, and Jets are all teams that could have interest in Nwosu, per Wilson. There is a good chance that Green Bay releases Za’Darius Smith, so Nwosu could serve as a Smith replacement in Wisconsin. In a separate piece, Wilson reports that the Jets, like the Chiefs, would be in on Smith should he indeed become a Packers cap casualty.

Eagles GM Howie Roseman is certainly monitoring both collegiate pass rushers as well as the free agent market. When discussing how he is prioritizing his team’s pass rush, Roseman recently said, “I’d be surprised if we didn’t do something there” (Twitter link via Eliot Shorr-Parks of 94WIP.com). Zach Berman and Bo Wulf of The Athletic (subscription required) believe there is a good chance Philadelphia grabs an edge rusher with at least one of its three first-round picks, especially since they expect Roseman to let DE Derek Barnett depart in free agency.

ESPN.com’s Jordan Reid, Matt Miller, and Todd McShay provide a detailed breakdown of the strong performance put on by the 2022 draft class of front seven players at this year’s scouting combine (subscription required).

Panthers Expected To Let Matt Paradis Depart In Free Agency; Latest On FA Plans

As Joseph Person of The Athletic (subscription required) writes, the Panthers are likely to part ways with center Matt Paradis, who is eligible for free agency. Pat Elflein, who opened the 2021 season as Carolina’s left guard but who moved over to center following Paradis’ injury, is likely to continue as the starting pivot despite his struggles in that role.

Paradis, 32, signed a three-year, $27MM contract with the Panthers in March 2019, and he started every game for the club from Week 1 of the 2019 season through Week 9 of the 2021 campaign. Unfortunately, a torn ACL suffered in that Week 9 contest ended his walk year prematurely, and it leaves him in a less-than-desirable position as he hits the open market for the second time in his career (interestingly, when he hooked on with the Panthers in 2019, he was coming off a serious leg injury that he sustained in November 2018, which may have limited his earnings then in the same way that his recent ACL tear will limit his earnings now).

Still, given his track record as a solid starter and the fact that he has been quite durable except when he’s playing out a contract year, he should garner a fair amount of attention from teams in need of a center. The Bengals, Jets, and Jaguars are all rumored to be interested in Bucs center Ryan Jensen, and Tampa Bay wants to retain its four-year starter. The losers of the Jensen sweepstakes could turn to Paradis, and the Ravens, who may be unable to afford a new contract for Bradley Bozeman, could also be in play.

The Panthers, meanwhile, will have plenty of work to do on the O-line. Luckily for them, this year’s college class is deep at the LT position, and Carolina could net a high-quality prospect even if it trades down from its No. 6 overall selection. In a separate piece (subscription required), Person opines that the Panthers will not be in the market for a high-priced free agent like longtime division-rival Terron Armstead, so the draft would be the place to nab a blindside blocker. Person does expect the team to sign a free agent guard, and while Brandon Scherff and Laken Tomlinson may be too pricey, old friend Andrew Norwell or Bears OL James Daniels could be viable targets.

In related news, Person says the Panthers do want edge defender Haason Reddick back, but only if the price is right. We recently heard that Reddick is likely to test the open market for the second year in a row. And while the club has not shut the door on a new contract for CB Stephon Gilmore, Person hears that the team is prioritizing a deal with fellow corner Donte Jackson, who is five years younger than Gilmore (both players are also eligible for free agency). GM Scott Fitterer is also doing his due diligence on available safeties.

Finally, the Panthers reportedly want to re-sign K Zane Gonzalez and may be eyeing P Pat O’Donnell as a replacement for Lachlan Edwards.

Giants Notes: Jones, Barkley, Engram

Giants GM Joe Schoen recently told reporters that no decision has been made with respect to QB Daniel Jones‘ fifth-year option for 2023, which must be exercised or declined by May 2. “We haven’t been around him other than a couple weeks,” Schoen said (via Mike Florio of PFT). “Again, we’re going to take our time with the process. We’re going to be around Daniel. We’re going to get the chance to see him throw and work with the guys that we have. … We’re going to be patient with that decision.”

New York is interested in signing free agent passer Mitchell Trubisky and having him compete with Jones for the starting job in 2022. Given that, and given Jones’ struggles over his first three professional seasons, it would be surprising if Schoen were to pick up Jones’ option, which is worth a fully-guaranteed $21.3MM.

Now for more from Big Blue:

  • When asked about the possibility of trading RB Saquon Barkley, Schoen did not rule it out. However, as Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post writes, Schoen would have to be floored to make a deal. Although the Giants are obviously in rebuild mode, they also want to field a competitive team and surround Jones or any other passer with enough talent to fairly evaluate their QB situation. Furthermore, Barkley’s “strong preference” is to stay with New York, and Dunleavy’s sources believe that if the Giants were to trade him now, they shouldn’t expect much more than a fourth-round pick in return.
  • Before Schoen was hired, it was reported that the Giants were unlikely to break the bank to retain tight end and pending FA Evan Engram. We have not heard anything to suggest otherwise now that Schoen is in charge of personnel, which means that Engram is poised to hit the open market. As Dunleavy tweets, some interested teams are looking to utilize Engram more as a slot receiver and are preparing proposals with that goal in mind.
  • Georgia DE Travon Walker was one of the biggest winners at the scouting combine, putting on a display that solidified his position as one of the top D-linemen in the class. The fact that he was asked to fill a variety of roles along the Bulldogs’ defensive front limited his sack production, but his athletic traits are hard to beat, and ESPN draftnik Jordan Reid believes Walker might now be a top-five choice (subscription required). Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com suggests that the Giants may consider Walker with their No. 5 or No. 7 overall selections (Twitter link).

Falcons Unlikely To Trade Matt Ryan

The Falcons are apparently receiving at least some trade interest in quarterback Matt Ryan. However, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports hears that clubs that have inquired on the four-time Pro Bowler are getting the “distinct impression” that he will not be dealt (Twitter link).

Thus far, the Seahawks have turned away all teams interested in trading for signal-caller Russell Wilson, and while Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is said to be torn on whether he wants to remain in Green Bay, there is a good chance that both players stay put in 2022. Couple that with a collegiate quarterback class that has some promise but no surefire stars, and Atlanta would theoretically be in a good position to net some draft pick compensation in a Ryan trade, compensation that could help usher in a new era for the franchise.

That is especially true given Ryan’s relatively modest base salaries of $16.25MM and $20.5MM over the final two years of his contract. Even when considering his age (he will be 37 in May) and the $7.5MM roster bonus he is due later this month and in March 2023, a team that believes it is a quarterback away from title contention might be willing to pull the trigger. The Commanders, who are leaving no stone unturned in their search for a quality QB and who recently made a strong push for Wilson, could be one such club, and the Steelers could be another.

From Atlanta’s perspective, though, the prospect of a trade is a bit messier. As a result of multiple restructures, the most recent of which GM Terry Fontenot begrudgingly made, Ryan’s dead money charge for 2022 if he were to be cut or traded prior to June 1 is a whopping $40.5MM. Even a post-June 1 transaction would result in a dead money number just shy of $25MM, and that’s not to mention the fact that HC Arthur Smith wants Ryan back. Indeed, the NFC South could be wide open in 2022, and Smith may feel that, with Ryan under center, he might be able to nab a division title.

On the other hand, even if Atlanta were to earn a playoff berth, it does not presently profile as a legitimate championship contender. Although a $40MM+ dead money charge would be tough to swallow, a Ryan trade or release prior to the $7.5MM roster bonus coming due on March 19 would also give the Falcons an additional $8MM of cap space to work with, and it would allow them to start afresh in 2023.

The team is already eyeing a Ryan succession plan, and if rival clubs are interested in making a deal, it may be in Fontenot’s best interest to think long and hard about accelerating that plan.

Mutual Interest For Derwin James Extension

Chargers’ safety Derwin James is currently set to head into the fifth year of his rookie contract, after the team exercised his fifth-year option in April of last year. According to Tyler Dragon of USA Today, there’s mutual interest in getting a long-term extension done, but negotiations will not start until the summer. 

James was a first-round draft pick for the Chargers in the 2018 NFL Draft. The Florida State prospect shot out of a cannon finishing second in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting and being announced as a first-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowler in his rookie season. His sophomore season was cut short after having surgery due to a stress fracture in his right foot. His 2020 NFL season got cut short before it even started with James suffering a torn meniscus a week before the team’s season opener. James made his long-anticipated return to the gridiron this past season, returning to form while making his second Pro Bowl team and finishing third in Comeback Player of the Year voting.

James’ numbers won’t pop out at you. Even when only looking at his two full seasons of play, his totals of 5 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, 5.5 sacks, and 11.0 tackles for loss over two years won’t rank anywhere near the top of any position groups. While the Chargers list him as a safety, his role is much closer to a glorified linebacker. When healthy, James will absolutely be one of the team’s top tacklers. He has a nose for the football and can find his way to the ball-carrier effectively. And, while not elite in any of the above statistical categories, his ability to cover, force turnovers, rush the passer, and make plays behind the line of scrimmage make him a valuable asset to the Los Angeles defense. It is truly his versatility they value.

It is this same versatility that makes a contract discussion for James a troubling concept. Do they pay James like a top-tier strong safety or shell out a little extra to pay him like a top tier linebacker?

The top safeties in the game, that don’t play exclusively in a free safety role, are players like Budda Baker ($14.75MM aav), John Johnson ($11.25MM aav), and Micah Hyde ($9.63MM aav). The top linebackers in the game, that aren’t pass-rushing specialists, are players like Darius Leonard ($19.7MM aav), Bobby Wagner ($18MM aav), and C.J. Mosley ($17MM aav). So, obviously, if you were going to pay him like you play him, James’ extension numbers should be closer to the $17-20MM per year range than the $9-15MM per year range.

Luckily, there is a very similar player in the NFL who has set a precedent for James and the Chargers to work off of: Seahawks’ safety Jamal Adams. Adams doesn’t play the field like a normal safety, either. He only has four career interceptions to his name. He does tend to make more plays on the ball when it’s in the air totaling 33 passes defended over five seasons. Adams also tends to get to the quarterback and make plays in the backfield more often than James. In 2019 & 2020 alone, Adams racked up 16.0 sacks and 21.0 tackles for loss, contributing to his career totals of 21.5 and 43.0 respectively.

As of right now, if the Chargers were to offer James an extension before he plays out his fifth-year option, I would expect the offer to look a bit like a watered-down-version of Adams’ deal. Upon finishing his first season in Seattle after being traded from the Jets to the Seahawks, Adams signed a four-year deal worth $70MM, averaging $17.5MM per year. Based off of Adams’ deal, I would expect Los Angeles to offer James a three- to four-year deal in the range of $12-15MM per year. James’ injury history will likely keep him from reaching the top-tier numbers of Adams.

That being said, with James lacking the statistical output in college, as well, the Chargers did draft him largely based off of his potential. With injuries keeping James from fully displaying his abilities over the past four years, maybe the Chargers will have much more faith in him than he’s been able to show thus far. They value him as a player and a leader, making him a team captain this past season. Perhaps they will offer him a long-term contract that reflects that.

Lamar Jackson Holds Power In Negotiations

If you’ve been following the contract negotiation updates between the Ravens and star quarterback Lamar Jackson, you’ve been hearing about a young kid without proper representation lackadaisically going through “unusual” procedures. Well, according to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, those plugged into the situation believe Jackson is in far more control than has been illustrated

Baltimore has reportedly presented offers to the 25 year-old focusing on term rather than annual average. Even so, long-term in this situation is being defined as five years or more. These long-term offers to Jackson apparently value in the realm of $35MM per year. In either respect, it doesn’t sound like the offers compare to those of fellow star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (10-year, $45MM aav) or Josh Allen (6-year, $43.01MM aav). General manager Eric DeCosta has repeatedly stated that, when Jackson wants to talk, he’s ready to work towards a deal.

Casual observers have frequently made comments that it would be much more prudent for Jackson to allow an agent to move forward with negotiations that could land him a deal worthy of his talents while allowing him to focus on his play. Jackson has confidence he can do both, and those casual observers may come to agree if they learn what Jackson is aiming for.

According to La Canfora’s sources, Jackson isn’t looking at Mahomes and Allen when thinking about his options moving forward, Jackson is looking at Vikings’ quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins, who is not considered on the same level as Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson, played out his rookie contract, played out two franchise tags, then captured a fully-guaranteed, three-year deal worth $84MM.

If Jackson follows this route, he is set to earn $23.02MM in the 2022 NFL season. This year’s franchise tag value for quarterbacks is set at $28.6MM. It will be adjusted, and likely increased, next year and the year after. Plus, when a player receives a franchise tag for the second year in a row, instead of getting paid the value of the tag, they are paid 120% of its value. So, to illustrate the inherent value there, if the franchise tag numbers were to stay the same over the next two years (they won’t), Jackson’s next three seasons would pay out $23.02MM, $28.6MM, and $34.32MM respectively. Following that, Jackson would be a former-MVP quarterback on the market before he turns 30, an extremely rare commodity.

If Cousins was able to leverage that situation into a three-year, $84MM deal, think what Jackson could earn. Jackson is obviously worth more than Cousins’ $28MM per year and over a short-term deal Jackson could net an even higher average still. Not to mention that every year, the market increases. With gambling money pouring in and record media deals paying dividends, NFL contracts continue to skyrocket. Cousins’ deal was made in 2018. In 2025, a top-tier quarterback may be able to earn up to $50MM per year if contract numbers continue to climb.

Allowing Lamar to carry those cap numbers over the next three years could truly hamper the Ravens’ ability to surround him with talent. The way Jackson sees it, he is betting on himself in the short-term but sees an opportunity to cash in either way. He has placed himself in an enviable position that tells Baltimore they don’t have to pay him what he’s asking for, but, if they don’t, it won’t do their cap space any favors.

Expect for Jackson to continue waiting patiently for a deal he can’t say “no” to. Until then, Jackson will continue to focus on his play. As long as he stays healthy and continues to perform at the level he’s shown he can, Jackson is due for a payday regardless of when a deal gets made.

Denver Emerging As Premier QB Destination

We wrote a bit earlier today on the Broncos being among multiple AFC teams who “have trade compensation lined up with the Packers,” in relation to quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Well, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Denver has emerged as a prime location for many of the league’s veteran quarterbacks looking for a potential change of scenery.

The Broncos recently hired former Packers’ offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to replace Vic Fangio, who failed to accomplish a winning season in three years with the Broncos. The former Green Bay staffer represents an obvious and strong connection for Rodgers. Should Rodgers decide to move on from the Packers, having a play-caller that he’s familiar with could add some allure to the Mile High City. Another intriguing aspect that could bring a star quarterback to Denver is the addition of former Vikings’ offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach. Kubiak just helped Kirk Cousins turn in one of his best seasons in Minnesota.

Hackett and company inherit an impressive roster posed to perform. The defense is comprised of veterans like outside linebacker Bradley Chubb, safety Justin Simmons, defensive end Shelby Harris, and cornerback Ronald Darby. There are a number of free agents that Denver would like to bring back like cornerbacks Bryce Callahan & Kyle Fuller, defensive back Kareem Jackson, inside linebacker Josey Jewell, and outside linebacker Malik Reed. Even if they fail to bring some of those names back, the Broncos saw impressive seasons last year for youngsters like cornerback Patrick Surtain II, linebacker Baron Browning, defensive end Dre’Mont Jones, and safety Caden Sterns. The list of defensive players above may not overwhelm you with stardom, but, together, the Broncos defense ranked third in the league in points allowed and eighth in the league in yards allowed.

In addition to a brand new offense and stacked defense, Denver boasts a nice array of young offensive weapons. An impressive receiving corps is led by veteran 26-year-old Courtland Sutton, young star Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick, who has broken out a bit over the past two seasons. The Broncos also have two talented, young receiving tight ends in Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam. Any quarterback looking to join in on the fun would potentially have the benefit of a two-headed rushing attack that was 79 yards short of a combined 2,000-yard rushing season. Running back Javonte Williams enjoyed a healthy dose of carries in his rookie season, and there is mutual interest in bringing back Melvin Gordon.

Rodgers is obviously a name to keep an eye on as the decision on his future in Green Bay looms on the horizon. He has said that he will let the Packers know of his intentions before the franchise tag deadline so they can figure out how to deal with free agent wide receiver Davante Adams. In addition to Rodgers, though, keep an eye out for Denver to make moves on other quarterbacks searching for greener pastures. Russell Wilson has long been rumored to be interested in moving on from Seattle, and Deshaun Watson is still searching for a new home.

Whether Rodgers, Wilson, Watson, or some other under-the-radar name, look for the Broncos to make a move for a star quarterback. If they are able to find the right fit, the move could bring them into contention for what could easily turn into the toughest division in football.

Bengals, Jets, Jaguars Expected To Pursue Ryan Jensen; Bucs Want To Retain C

It will cost the Buccaneers to keep Ryan Jensen. Despite this being the veteran center’s second go-round at free agency, he is expected to have a robust market.

The Bengals, Jets and Jaguars are among the teams expected to have interest in Jensen once he hits the market, Aaron Wilson of ProFootballNetwork.com notes. Meanwhile, the Bucs want to do “everything possible” to keep their four-year center, Wilson adds. This follows a report that indicated Tampa Bay wanted to retain Jensen and Alex Cappa, with Ali Marpet‘s surprise retirement putting pressure on the Bucs to hang onto their other top interior O-linemen.

With the franchise tag formula grouping all offensive linemen together, the tag is not a realistic option for the Bucs, who also have plenty of other starters headed for free agency. The O-line tag is expected to approach $17MM; the NFL’s highest-paid center (Frank Ragnow) earns $13.5MM annually. The demand for Jensen could give the center position a new top salary. That would be quite the development for the ex-Raven, who signed a center-record deal (four years, $42MM) when he was last a free agent in 2018.

Jensen, 31 in May, has not missed a game over the past five seasons. He earned his first Pro Bowl nod this past year. Jacksonville, Cincinnati and New York each are among the top five in terms of cap space. Tampa Bay is barely $2MM over the cap, residing near the bottom of the league in terms of offseason resources.

The Bengals obviously have needs across their O-line, and they appear to be committed to improving the center position. They are also expected to pursue Ravens center Bradley Bozeman, who looms as a cheaper alternative to Jensen. The Jets signed Connor McGovern just two years ago in free agency, giving him a three-year, $27MM deal. His contract is up after the 2022 season. Jacksonville has Brandon Linder under contract, but the longtime Jaguars blocker has run into rampant injury trouble. The Jags could save $9.5MM by cutting Linder.

Giants Likely To Target Mitchell Trubisky

While perhaps due to a stagnant quarterback market, Mitchell Trubisky‘s free agency stock has climbed in recent days. The former Bears bust may have interesting second-chance options as a starter or with a team planning a competition.

The Giants fall into the latter category, committing to Daniel Jones returning. But the team is expected to target Trubisky to compete with the in-house starter, Tony Pauline of ProFootballNetwork.com notes. This would make for an interesting pairing, putting two maligned top-10 picks into a competition, and high-end backup money looks to be Trubisky’s floor at this point. The Trubisky momentum, as strange as this sounds, has been “off the charts” at the Combine, per Pauline.

Trubisky signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the Bills last year, trekking to Buffalo after a rough Chicago stay. The Giants hiring ex-Bills lieutenants Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll would make a Trubisky addition logical, since the team still plans to have Jones in the picture. The Giants will listen to offers for many players, but Schoen said (via ESPN.com’s Jordan Raanan) Jones and Kadarius Toney are not up for discussion this offseason.

Josh Allen made every Bills start last season; Trubisky threw just eight passes in six inconsequential cameos. But he has 50 starts to his credit. The Steelers are also interested in Trubisky, who will turn 28 before Week 1. Since Trubisky’s 2018 Pro Bowl alternate bid, in Matt Nagy‘s first Bears season, he trended downward in Chicago. Trubisky may need to be choosey with his next destination, as starter chances may be elusive if he bombs with his next team. The Steelers join the Giants in being interested in the former No. 2 overall pick, though they are open to other names as well, and the Bills would be fine with him back as Allen’s understudy.

Even though the North Carolina product may never escape his Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson ties, this year’s QB trade market stalling beyond Watson would be a boon for the free agent crop. Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr not being heavily involved in trade rumors stands to help the likes of Trubisky, Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater. Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay, which may be becoming an iffier proposition than it appeared earlier this week, would also benefit the UFA crop, which includes Marcus Mariota as well.

Mutual Interest Between Broncos, Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon arrived in Denver during John Elway‘s final offseason as GM. Despite a rocky tenure and the Broncos changing coaching staffs, the former first-round pick is on the radar to stay.

George Paton said this week he would like to retain Gordon, and the ex-Charger confirmed he has spoken with the second-year GM this offseason. Gordon, 29 in April, would prefer to return for a third Broncos season.

I have been wanting to come back. I would love to win championship in Denver. I made a lot of great relationships with the guys. I feel like we have a really good team. To leave a talented team and go somewhere else would suck,” Gordon said, via Denver7’s Troy Renck. “It’s a job unfinished, and we need to finish the job.

I talked with George. We spoke on it. He told me he thinks highly of me. I really like the way he runs things and does things.”

[RELATED: Broncos Remain In Contention For Aaron Rodgers]

Gordon’s 2020 arrival marginalized Denver native Phillip Lindsay, leading to the latter’s RFA tender being rescinded last year, and his presence minimized Javonte Williams‘ rookie-year role. Gordon was also arrested for DUI in 2020, though the charges were eventually dismissed, and fumbled seven times over the past two seasons — tied for second-most in the NFL in that span.

The Wisconsin alum also topped 900 rushing yards each year, exceeded 4.5 yards per carry in both Denver seasons and totaled 20 touchdowns as a Bronco. His presence almost certainly helped Williams stay fresh in his debut season.

A return likely comes down to Gordon’s market. The Broncos gave him a two-year, $16MM deal previously. Younger free agents like Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Chase Edmonds, Rashaad Penny are also set to hit free agency. While the Broncos running back the Gordon-Williams pairing makes sense to a degree, the team has needs at higher-value spots and is prepared to devote significant funding to a quarterback upgrade. With Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick now on veteran deals, that also stands to eat into money that could go toward a Gordon return. Third-stringer Mike Boone is also under contract for 2022, on a $2.1MM cap number.