Patriots Sign Third-Round RB Damien Harris
The Patriots are the ninth NFL team to sign their entire 2019 rookie class, as New England has agreed to terms with third-round running back Damien Harris, according to Field Yates of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
Harris, the 87th overall selection in April’s draft, will sign a four-year deal worth roughly $3.6MM. He’ll join the Patriots’ roster following a four-year career at Alabama, during which he won two National Championships and earned second-team All-SEC honors during his senior season. Harris came off the board 63 picks after fellow Tide running back Josh Jacobs, but Harris actually surpassed Jacobs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and receptions in 2018.
Harris, who stands 5’10”, 216 pounds, topped 1,000 yards rushing in both his sophomore and junior seasons, averaging more than seven yards per carry in each campaign. In a pre-draft scouting report, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compared Harris to former Bears/Bengals back Cedric Benson, noting Harris’ “no-nonsense” running style but identifying his lack of burst.
The Patriots already have a roster full of running backs with defined roles, including 2018 first-rounder Sony Michel, receiving back James White, and do-it-all Rex Burkhead. Harris will likely start out with a heavy role on special teams, but he could carve out a niche slot as the season progresses.
Here’s New England’s 2019 draft in full:
- 1-32: N’Keal Harry, WR (Arizona State)
- 2-45: JoeJuan Williams, CB (Vanderbilt)
- 3-77: Chase Winovich, DE (Michigan)
- 3-87: Damien Harris, RB (Alabama)
- 3-101: Yodny Cajuste, T (West Virginia)
- 4-118: Hjalte Froholdt, G ( Arkansas)
- 4-133: Jarrett Stidham, QB (Auburn)
- 5-159: Byron Cowart, DT (Maryland)
- 5-163: Jake Bailey, P (Stanford)
- 7-252: Ken Webster, CB (Ole Miss)
Poll: Which 2018 First Place Team Is Likeliest To Miss Playoffs In 2019?
In 2018, three first-place teams from the previous season did not earn postseason berths. Those clubs — the Steelers, Jaguars, and Vikings — each missed the playoffs for different reasons. Injuries, poor luck, off-field issues, and plain old regression to the mean all contributed in certain instances, and 2019 doesn’t figure to be any different for the 2018 first-place teams.
We’ve already asked PFR readers which 2018 last place team is likeliest to make the postseason in 2019 (the Jaguars were the top choice). Today, we’ll flip that question: which 2018 first place club is going to miss the playoffs during the upcoming campaign?
Let’s take an overview of the teams:
New England Patriots
You don’t need me to tell you the Patriots have dominated the AFC East for the better part of two decades. They’ve won 10 consecutive division titles, and have finished first in 16 of the last 18 campaigns. New England is still considered the favorites to win the 2020 Super Bowl, despite losing players like Rob Gronkowski, Trey Flowers, Trent Brown, and Malcom Brown during the offseason. While the Jets and Bills have each improved and built around young quarterbacks, the AFC East is still unquestionably the Patriots’ to lose.
Baltimore Ravens
After turning over their offense to rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson against the Bengals in Week 11, the Ravens managed to rebound from a 4-5 start to win six of their final seven games, edging out the Steelers for the AFC North crown in the process. Pittsburgh should still contend in 2019 despite trading Antonio Brown and allowing Le’Veon Bell to walk in free agency, but Baltimore’s real competition is the Browns, who are now favored to win the division after adding Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson, and others over the past several months.
Houston Texans
The Texans have quietly won the AFC South in three of the past four seasons under head coach Bill O’Brien, but their path will be extremely difficult next season. The Colts are building for long-term success and are the division favorites in 2019, while the Jaguars and Titans could also be in the running. Wide receiver Will Fuller‘s return from a torn ACL should help quarterback Deshaun Watson, but if the third-year signal-caller can’t stay upright behind what is still a sub-par offensive line, Houston may not have a chance.
Kansas City Chiefs
After nearly advancing to the Super Bowl a season ago, the Chiefs enter the 2019 season with change in the air. Not only did Kansas City make two separate franchise edge defender trades (shipping Dee Ford to the 49ers while acquiring Frank Clark from the Seahawks), it also added key defensive players like Tyrann Mathieu, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Alex Okafor. The Chiefs’ biggest outstanding question, of course, revolves around wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is still being investigated after being accused of child abuse. At present, it’s unclear if Hill will be suspended or even be on Kansas City’s roster once the regular gets underway.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas won seven of its final eight games down the stretch after acquiring wideout Amari Cooper from the Raiders, taking the division from the Eagles in the process. As has become the norm, the Cowboys didn’t do much during the offseason. Jerry Jones & Co. re-signed defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, brought tight end Jason Witten out of retirement, and added slot receiver Randall Cobb, but otherwise kept his club intact. Given that the Giants and Redskins don’t look like serious contenders, Dallas will likely battle Philadelphia for the NFC East crown again.
Chicago Bears
The Bears seem to be the current pick for regression in 2019, and it’s not difficult to see why. Chicago was buoyed by its league-best defense last season, and defensive success is historically less stable and less predictive than production on offense. Not only did the Bears lose key defenders like Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan, but star defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is also gone. Chicago will likely need to rely on improvement from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky if it wants to hold off the Packers and Vikings next year.
New Orleans Saints
After posting three consecutive 7-9 seasons from 2014-16, the Saints have manged 24 regular season victories and two NFC South titles over the last two years. New Orleans added two new weapons — tight end Jared Cook and running back Latavius Murray — for Drew Brees, and found both a short-term (Nick Easton) and long-term (Erik McCoy) replacement for recently-retired center Max Unger. On paper, the Saints still look like an incredibly strong team, but their division is one of the toughest in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams
Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, the Rams added two free agent defenders in edge rusher Clay Matthews and safety Eric Weddle, but also lost key contributors like Ndamukong Suh, Rodger Saffold, and Lamarcus Joyner. Additionally, Todd Gurley‘s knee condition isn’t likely to allow him to be a bell-cow in 2019, meaning more responsibility will be placed on Jared Goff. Luckily for Los Angeles, none of the other clubs in the NFC West appear ready to dethrone the Rams just yet.
So, what do you think? Which 2018 first place team is likeliest to miss the playoffs in 2019? Vote below! (Link for app users).
NaVorro Bowman To Retire
Longtime NFL linebacker NaVorro Bowman will retire as a member of the 49ers, San Francisco announced today. Bowman spent seven-plus seasons with the 49ers, but didn’t play in the NFL last year.
Bowman, now 31 years old, was a third-round selection in the 2010 draft. After serving primarily as a special-teamer during his rookie campaign, Bowman became a starter in 2011 and didn’t look back. Pairing with Patrick Willis to create the league’s best linebacker tandem, Bowman earned first-team All-Pro honors 2011-13, posting at least 140 combined tackles in each season.
Unfortunately, in what likely became the defining moment of his career, Bowman suffered a brutal knee injury in the 2013 NFC Championship Game, tearing both his ACL and MCL in the process. The Penn State product missed the entirety of the 2014 season, and while he returned in 2015 and was again named first-team All-Pro, he never quite regained his pre-injury form.
A torn Achilles tendon prematurely ended Bowman’s 2016 season, and spelled the near end of his 49ers career. Five games into the 2017 campaign, San Francisco released Bowman after he voiced displeasure at a nearly-completed trade to the Saints. Bowman latched on with the Raiders, and put up 89 tackles over the final 10 games of the year.
Bowman was expected to draw interest during the 2018 offseason, and PFR had him ranked as the second-best off-ball linebacker on the market. The Packers reportedly considered adding Bowman following an injury to their linebacker corps, and he scheduled a workout with the Browns in October 2018, but no deal was ever reached.
Bowman will end his career with more than $44MM in earnings. PFR wishes him well as he enters retirement.
NFC South Notes: Panthers, Falcons, Bucs
Although initial reports indicated Gerald McCoy‘s visit with the Panthers would begin on Thursday, he’ll actually begin meeting with the club on Friday, tweets Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times. The Ravens and Browns have already hosted McCoy, and despite a slew of other reported interest, it appears McCoy will decide between Baltimore, Cleveland, and Carolina, as Ian Rapoport of NFL.com suggests (Twitter link). McCoy, 31, has reportedly drawn offers as high as $11MM per year, although that figure is difficult to believe at face value, especially given Ndamukong Suh — McCoy’s replacement in Tampa Bay — collected only $9.25MM on a one-year deal.
Here’s more from the NFC South:
- The Panthers are planning to run more 3-4 looks on defense, at least when they’re in base on early downs, as David Newton of ESPN.com writes. Rumors of a scheme change in Carolina have been bubbling for months, but head coach Ron Rivera hadn’t yet confirmed the move. Per Newton, the Panthers began experimenting with 3-4 fronts after Rivera took over play-calling for the final month of the season. According to Warren Sharp’s personnel data, Carolina ranked near the bottom of the league in 2018 in facing three-plus receivers — if that trend continues next year, the Panthers will spend a good deal of time in their new 3-4 base defense.
- Defensive end Takkarist McKinley has been experimenting at linebacker during the Falcons‘ organized team activities, reports D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. McKinley, a first-round pick in the 2017 draft, has been lining up over the tight end on certain plays. “There will be some packages where can be a linebacker,” head coach Dan Quinn said. “The value in that (presents the question of) is he a rusher or is he a dropper?” The 23-year-old McKinley posted eight sacks and 50 pressures on 617 snaps last season.
- Cam Newton has continually expressed optimism that he’ll be ready for training camp after undergoing offseason shoulder injury, and the Panthers quarterback recent took a step in the right direction. Newton has begun throwing a regulation size football, per Jourdan Rodrigue of the Charlotte Observer. The 30-year-old signal-caller sat out the final two games of the 2018 season while dealing with shoulder pain that eventually led to his operation.
- New director of athlete performance Greg Skaggs will head a sports science department on the Buccaneers‘ staff, tweets Greg Auman of The Athletic (Twitter link). Skaggs and his crew will work on training and conditioning techniques in an effort to “optimize player health and production.”
Minor NFL Transactions: 5/30/19
Today’s minor moves:
Arizona Cardinals
- Waived: LB James Folston Jr.
Atlanta Falcons
- Signed: T Dieugot Joseph, DE Austin Larkin
- Waived: T Devon Johnson
New Orleans Saints
- Waived: RB A.J. Ouellette, DB Jordan Wyatt
Oakland Raiders
- Signed: CB D.J. Killings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Signed: WR Xavier Ubosi
Washington Redskins
- Waived: T Jylan Ware
Panthers WR Torrey Smith Accepts Pay Cut
Panthers wide receiver Torrey Smith has agreed to reduce his base salary of $5MM to $2MM plus an additional $1MM via bonuses, tweets Field Yates of ESPN.com.
Carolina is pursuing free agent defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and still needs to sign its top two 2019 draft picks, so the club can use any additional cap space it can get. By creating $2MM via Smith’s pay cut, the Panthers should now have roughly $11.835MM in available funds, per Over the Cap.
Smith missed five games due to a knee injury last season, appearing in only 11 games while making six starts. He was targeted just 31 times on the year, hauling in 17 of those targets for 190 yards and two touchdowns. Smith has never been a volume receiver, but he hasn’t topped 12 yards per reception since 2015, and hasn’t posted more than 40 catches since 2014.
Carolina acquired Smith, now 30 years old, from the Eagles last offseason in exchange for cornerback Daryl Worley. The Panthers exercised his 2019 option despite his lack of production last year, but that decision came with no downside, as none of Smith’s $5MM salary was guaranteed.
The Panthers added free agent Chris Hogan and seventh-round draft pick Terry Godwin to a wide receiver depth chart that already includes D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Jarius Wright, so Smith isn’t likely to see an increase in snaps in 2019. Despite today’s pay cut, he still may not be a lock for Carolina’s roster, although the club would now have to carry that $1MM bonus payment as dead money.
Seahawks Sue Malik McDowell To Recoup Signing Bonus
The Seahawks are suing 2017 second-round pick Malik McDowell in order to recoup an additional $799,238 in signing bonus money, according to Matt Charboneau of the Detroit News. McDowell has never made an NFL appearance after getting injured in an ATV accident three months after being drafted.
Earlier this year, an arbitrator ruled McDowell must repay Seattle a total of $1,599,238. The Seahawks withheld McDowell’s 2018 salary of $800K, and the club is now searching for the rest of the total. McDowell didn’t dispute the ruling or appeal, but he’s yet to make a payment to the club.
By sustaining severe injuries in that ATV accident, McDowell violated a portion of his contact which states he shall not “engage in any activity other than football which may involve a significant risk of personal injury,” as Brady Henderson of ESPN.com writes. McDowell spent his first two NFL seasons on the non-football injury list, and the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement indicates players on said list may be required to forfeit signing bonus money, per Henderson.
McDowell, a Michigan State product, was officially waived in March of this year and is now a free agent. Two weeks after getting cut by Seattle, McDowell took a visit with the Cowboys, but Dallas’ doctors haven’t been able to give him a clean bill of health. McDowell’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said in March that his client has been medically cleared by independent doctors.
As Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports writes, the suit between the Seahawks and McDowell reveals the existence of a an extremely strained relationship between the two parties. A team suing a player for a relatively small amount of money is nearly unprecedented, per Robinson, who adds Seattle previously attempted to recoup all of McDowell’s rookie contract and is now seeing interest on the current missed payment.
How The Bills Revamped Their Offensive Line In A Single Offseason
There’s little question offensive line continuity is an important facet of any winning NFL team’s success. As Thomas Emerick of the Sporting News and Rotoviz recently examined, many of the league’s best front fives – including the Eagles, Steelers, Colts, Ravens, and Bears — are set to return all five starters in 2019. Given that the offensive line is an extremely cerebral position group where all five members are consistently working as one, it makes sense that the most productive lines are those were familiarity is a constant.
But what about when things go wrong? The 2018 Bills ranked 30th in adjusted line yards, Football Outsiders’ attempt to filter out what part of a team’s rushing performance can be attributed specifically to its linemen. While Buffalo finished in the middle of the pack with 41 sacks allowed, they ranked just 23rd in adjusted sack rate, which accounts for down, distance, and opponent. The Bills ended the season as a bottom-five club in pressure rate allowed, and Pro Football Focus listed Buffalo as a bottom-seven offensive line in overall grading.
The Bills’ struggles can’t be blamed on offensive line changes. As Vincent Verhei of FO wrote in April, Buffalo actually ranked 10th in offensive line continuity score, which factors in the number of starters a team used, the number of weekly changes to its front five, and the longest starting streak of any single five-man unit. The Bills can’t point to injuries, either, as they finished with only 5.5 adjusted games lost along their offensive line, sixth-best in the NFL.
So what exactly was the problem for the Bills’ line last season? Frankly, it was a question of talent. Buffalo didn’t have a single offensive lineman grade among PFF’s top-60 OLs, while only one — left tackle Dion Dawkins — ranked top-90 positionally. Non-starting-caliber players such as Russell Bodine, Jordan Mills, Vlad Ducasse, and Ryan Groy each played more than 500 snaps a season ago.
In order to rectify their offensive line issues, the Bills deployed an interesting offseason plan: throw everything against the wall and see what sticks. Buffalo struck quickly in February, signing interior veteran Spencer Long just a week after he’d been released by the division-rival Jets. Long is no world-beater, but he’s got 44 games worth of starting experience under his belt, can play center and both guard positions, and will cost less than $4MM against the Bills’ 2019 salary cap before a series of options kick in 2020-21.
The Bills waited until the free agent market officially opened in March before making their big-ticket purchase, inking former Chiefs center Mitch Morse to a four-year, $44.5MM deal that made him the NFL’s highest-paid pivot. The 27-year-old Morse would prove to be Buffalo’s only high-priced addition to its front five, as the club wisely avoided an exploding offensive tackle market that saw Trent Brown reel in $16.5MM annually and Ja’Wuan James collect $12.75MM per year.
Instead, the Bills targeted mid-level veteran contracts to improve their offensive line, a strategy often employed by the Patriots (albeit typically at other positions). Buffalo stole tackle Ty Nsekhe from the rest of the league, signing the 33-year-old away from the Redskins on a two-year deal worth only $10MM. Nsekhe, who didn’t garner regular NFL playing time until he was 30 years old, sat behind two high-quality tackles in Washington but produced whenever he was called upon.
Buffalo didn’t stop there, and continued to add role players throughout the rest of March and April. Former Raiders backup Jon Feliciano came to town on a two-year, $7.25MM pact, tackle LaAdrian Waddle received a one-year, $2MM deal, and 48-game Titans starter Quinton Spain got one year and $2.05MM.
The Bills’ final offensive line improvement came in Round 2 of the draft, when general manager Brandon Beane moved up from No. 40 overall to No. 38 by trading the Raiders a fifth-round pick. That swap enabled Buffalo to select Oklahoma guard/tackle Cody Ford, a prospect whom many analysts had pegged as a first-rounder. In the Bills’ excellent behind-the-scenes draft video, Beane and his staff are seen attempting to trade back into Day 1 for Ford, expressing disappointment when they believed he was headed to the Panthers at No. 37, and registering elation realizing they’ll acquire the ex-Sooner.
Now that Buffalo has added seven offensive linemen capable of starting, the team has some decisions to make. Who exactly will play where? Morse, at center, is seemingly the only player locked into a certain position. At the Bills’ most recent practice sessions, the line has been Dawkins-Long-Feliciano-Wyatt Teller-Ford from left-to-right, but with both Morse and Spain battling injuries, that’s probably not a fair representation of what the front five will look like when the regular season begins. A more realistic guess at the 2019 starting unit might be, from left-to-right, Dawkins-Spain-Morse-Ford-Nsekhe.
An improved offensive line should do wonders for second-year quarterback Josh Allen, who struggled after being selected seventh overall in the 2018 draft. Allen finished 29th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt during his rookie campaign, and his 4.37 mark was the sixth-worst figure by a rookie signal-caller since 2011 (minimum 300 attempts).
While Next Gen Stats charted Allen with the most time to throw in the NFL (3.22 seconds), that was likely a result of the Wyoming product’s scrambling ability — Allen’s legs allowed him to escape the pocket and continue the play until he could attempt a pass. Allen also led the league in both average intended air yards and air yards differential, meaning that while he was attempting a high number of deep throws, Allen wasn’t very effective with such passes. A more established pocket could allow the 23-year-old to go deep with greater efficiency.
And go deep he will. Allen showed late-season rapport with undrafted rookie wideout Robert Foster, who posted 19 receptions, 285 yards, and two touchdowns over the final four games of the season. Per PFF, Foster posted the highest average depth of target of any receiver who played at least 25% of his club’s offensive snaps. Free agent addition John Brown, signed to a three-year, $27MM contract, ranked sixth in aDOT.
Eric Eager and George Chahrouri of Pro Football Focus have researched the tremendous value of simply improving from replacement level to average along the offensive line. In fact, based on their wins above replacement metric, a team will realize a greater benefit from a front five going from below replacement level to average than it would from one that improved from average to elite.
That’s essentially the strategy the Bills have employed this offseason. No new member of their offensive line, not even Morse, qualifies as an elite level player. But Buffalo has significantly raised the overall floor of their offensive line, and could reap the benefits in 2019.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Titans Sign Third-Round OL Nate Davis
The Titans have have signed third-round guard Nate Davis to his rookie contract, the club announced today.
A Charlotte product, Davis made 37 starts over three seasons while playing both tackle and guard. Per the Pro Football Focus draft guide, Davis allowed only seven sacks during his collegiate career. In 2018, he gave up just four pressures on 237 pass-blocking snaps.
Tennessee will field an all-new guard tandem in 2019 after cutting Josh Kline and allowing Quinton Spain to leave via free agency. Free agent addition Rodger Saffold will take over at left guard, but right guard is wide open. Davis, the 82nd overall selection, will compete with veterans like Kevin Pamphile and Austin Pasztor for a starting role.
With Davis under contract, Tennessee has only one 2019 draft choice — second-round wideout A.J. Brown — left unsigned.
Extra Points: Vikings, Dolphins, Bills, Jags
The Vikings have added former NFL kicker Nate Kaeding as a kicking consultant, according to Andrew Krammer of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The hire is expected to be formally announced in the near future. Earlier this offseason, Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer spoke about adding another special teams coach to his staff, and Kaeding has been working with Minnesota’s kickers a few times per week. Now 37 years old, Kaeding was a third-round draft choice of the Chargers in 2004, and went on to spend nine years with the club. Kaeding, who also spent late-career time with the Dolphins and Buccaneers, posted a career field goal conversion rate of 86.2%.
Here’s more from around the NFL:
- Bobby McCain has played cornerback in each of his four seasons with the Dolphins, but Miami’s new staff has him working at free safety, per Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald. Nominally, the Dolphins already have two starting safeties in Reshad Jones and T.J. McDonald, but Jones hasn’t been participating in organized team activities. Reports have varied as to whether Jones is on the trade/cut block, but if McCain is on the field as a safety, there wouldn’t seem to be room for Jones. 2018 first-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick can also play safety in addition to nickel corner, and he’s also being worked in as a linebacker, per Salguero.
- New Bills guard Quinton Spain recently underwent surgery on his thumb, as Joe Buscaglia of WKBW writes. It doesn’t sound like the issue is all too serious, so Spain should be back to practice in short order. Before his injury, Spain was working as Buffalo’s starting right guard. The Bills made offensive line improvement a point of emphasis this offseason by signing Spain, Ty Nsekhe, Mitch Morse, Spencer Long, LaAdrian Waddle and Jon Feliciano before adding Oklahoma’s Cody Ford in the second round of the draft. Spain, Long, Feliciano, Ford, and Wyatt Teller are all competing for time at guard.
- Former Jaguars linebacker Blair Brown was arrested this week on charges of domestic battery, reports Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com. Brown was a fifth-round pick in 2016, and made 28 appearances for Jacksonville over the past two seasons. The Ohio product was cut earlier this month, and his arrest could potentially end his NFL career.