Free Agent Stock Watch: Marcus Williams
Though he has yet to earn a Pro Bowl nomination, the Saints’ Marcus Williams has established himself as one of the best young safeties in the NFL. A member of New Orleans’ loaded 2017 draft class that also included Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk, Alvin Kamara, and Trey Hendrickson, Williams’ presence in the secondary has been instrumental in the Saints’ defensive success over his first four years in the league.
Williams, a free safety, is a prototypical centerfielder and ball-hawker whose one true weakness coming into the 2020 season was his tackling ability. But he made great strides in that regard, as Pro Football Focus charged him with just two missed tackles last year. PFF ranked Williams as the seventh-best safety in the game in 2020, and while it was especially bullish on his run defense, he also scored well in coverage.
Between that and his playmaking abilities — he has recorded 13 interceptions and 30 passes defensed over his first four years in the league — Williams will be a hot commodity if the Saints let him hit the open market. And New Orleans might not have a choice. The club’s salary cap problems have been well-documented, and we heard over the weekend that re-signing Hendrickson — whose 13.5 sacks were the second-most in the NFL last season — may not be possible.
The same goes for Williams. The Utah product will justifiably be aiming for the top of the safety market, which is currently headed by the Cardinals’ Budda Baker‘s $14.75MM average annual value. The Bears’ Eddie Jackson ($14.6MM) and the Titans’ Kevin Byard ($14.1MM) are not too far behind in terms of AAV, and all three players landed guarantees north of $30MM. Theoretically, GM Mickey Loomis could backload a Williams contract in an effort to fit him under the 2021 salary cap, but Loomis will have a number of difficult decisions to make, and even a backloaded deal might be too rich for the Saints at this point.
It seems that the franchise tag, which would carry a projected value of about $10.5MM, is definitely out of the question since the Saints would need to carry that entire amount on their cap in 2021. So if the Saints can’t bring back Williams, where might he end up?
The Raiders are one obvious potential landing spot. Las Vegas recently hired Gus Bradley as its new DC, and Bradley was one of the architects of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom secondary that saw Earl Thomas playing centerfield against opposing offenses. The Raiders’ offense is in pretty good shape, and after a series of straightforward cuts, they will have enough cap space to sign a quality free agent or two. Williams would team with Johnathan Abram to form a young and talented safety tandem.
The Lions and Jaguars were the two worst teams in the league in 2020 in terms of total defense, and while both clubs are very much in the rebuilding phase, Williams is young enough that he could still be a part of the next competitive outfits in Detroit or Jacksonville. Those teams have plenty of areas of need, but a strong back-end defender is a worthwhile target for any defense.
One way or another, Williams is about to get paid. He might not be the most talked-about FA at this point, but assuming the Saints don’t hit him with the franchise tag, he will be one of the first players off the board when free agency officially opens next month.
Mutual Interest Between J.J. Watt, Bills
Although he is about to turn 32 years old and just posted the lowest single-season sack total of any season in which he was able play a full slate of games, J.J. Watt finds himself in high demand. The former face of the Texans, released by Houston last week, looks like a good bet to land a multi-year pact in short order.
Over the weekend, Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News suggested that the Bills, who were among the teams linked to Watt in the immediate aftermath of his release, are unlikely to make a major free agent splash this offseason. Instead, Carucci said he expects Buffalo to use the majority of its cash on an extension for QB Josh Allen, which would keep the club out of the hunt for premier free agents like Watt.
However, ESPN’s Kimberley A. Martin reported that the Bills have indeed inquired about Watt, and that the interest is mutual (Twitter link). Carucci’s sources confirmed as much, saying that the Bills and Watt’s agent, Tom Condon, have been communicating. Interestingly, Condon also represents Allen, so perhaps he and Buffalo GM Brandon Beane can get a lot of work done over the coming days.
Watt is looking to join a contender with a top-tier quarterback, and the Bills, fresh off an AFC Championship Game appearance, certainly qualify. But there are about six teams that remain in the running, including the Browns, Titans, Steelers, and Packers, and all of them made the postseason in 2020. So while Carucci hears that Watt may start narrowing down his list in the coming days, it’s difficult to find a true frontrunner at the moment.
It’s easy to see why the Bills are seriously considering Watt. In addition to the fact that he is seen as a good fit with the team-first culture that Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have helped create in western New York, the Bills were just 20th in the league in quarterback pressures last season, and their top two defensive ends, Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison, are 32 and 33, respectively. Of course, Watt isn’t too far behind in terms of age, but while Watt graded out as the seventh-best edge defender in the league last year according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics, Addison was the No. 78 ED.
The Bills are right up against the cap, so theoretically, they could release Addison to create a little more than $6MM in space and then put that money towards a contract for Watt. Spotrac projects a two-year, $24MM deal for the five-time First Team All-Pro.
AFC East Rumors: Watson, Mariota, Allen
Add veteran NFL reporter Tyler Dunne of GoLongTD.com to the list of writers who have heard that Texans QB Deshaun Watson is not budging on his desire to be traded, and that he continues to ignore every call from Houston brass. Of course, Watson has a no-trade clause that he could use to help dictate where he goes — assuming the Texans give in and deal him, which they have insisted they are not going to do — and we recently heard that the 49ers and Broncos are on his destination list.
Dunne’s source indicates that the Dolphins — who have been considered one of the frontrunners for Watson since trade speculation started to swirl — and the Niners are Watson’s top two preferred clubs. In Dunne’s view, a trade to Miami makes too much sense to not happen, and he believes the ‘Fins and Texans could line up on a deal that sends Watson to South Beach in exchange for the No. 3 and No. 18 overall picks in this year’s draft along with Miami’s 2022 first-rounder.
Now for more rumors from the AFC East:
- Recent reports have indicated that Raiders QB Marcus Mariota is generating legitimate trade interest, and Mike Reiss of ESPN.com believes the Patriots could be in the mix. New England obviously needs a quarterback, and Mariota is attached to a reasonable $10.6MM salary for 2021 and would not cost much to acquire in terms of draft capital. Although he could demand a raise if he is being acquired to serve as a starter, his current salary would not preclude the Pats from continuing to explore other options, like Jimmy Garoppolo — if the the 49ers land a different QB and release Garoppolo — or a collegiate passer.
- Reiss does not expect the Patriots to make a deal with the division-rival Jets for Gang Green QB Sam Darnold, though what the Jets do with Darnold could certainly have a major impact on New England (for instance, if New York trades Darnold to San Francisco, Garoppolo could become available).
- The Jets have among the most cap space in the league at just shy of $70MM, and they can easily create even more flexibility, thereby giving them a huge advantage in what could be a buyer’s market given the decreased salary cap. Connor Hughes of The Athletic believes New York will release DE Henry Anderson, which jibes with a report from December. That move will save the club $8.2MM in cap space, and Hughes suggests that guards Greg Van Roten and Alex Lewis might be goners as well (their releases would save $3.4MM and $5.1MM, respectively).
- Meanwhile the Jets don’t have too many of their own free agents that must be retained. Hughes expects safety Marcus Maye to be re-signed, and he also says OL Pat Elflein — who played well in 2020 after being claimed off waivers from the Vikings — is a logical candidate to return, especially if the team moves on from Van Roten and/or Lewis.
- Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News does not foresee the Bills laying out major free agent dollars this offseason. Instead, he expects the club to use the majority of its cash on an extension for QB Josh Allen, which means that the Bills will likely allow LB Matt Milano to test the open market — contrary to GM Brandon Beane‘s assertion that a franchise tag could be in play — and will not be in the running for a top pass rusher like Shaquil Barrett or Bud Dupree.
Raiders To Cut Lamarcus Joyner?
The Raiders narrowly missed the playoffs in 2020, and their defense was largely to blame for that. The unit finished near the bottom of the league in terms of total defense and points per game, and Vegas hopes that new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and an influx of new talent will lead to an improved showing in 2021.
As Vic Tafur of The Athletic writes, the Raiders can free up about $48MM of cap room with a series of cuts that shouldn’t be too difficult to make — they already plan to release WR Tyrell Williams — and they can allocate some of those funds (along with the No. 17 overall pick, perhaps) to the defensive side of the ball. One of the players that is expected be let go is defensive back Lamarcus Joyner.
Indeed, Tafur says “there is no way” that Joyner, 30, will return to the team on his 2021 salary of $9.6MM. Releasing him would save Vegas about $8.7MM in cap space, and when one considers the value of that space versus Joyner’s performance over his first two years in the Silver-and-Black, it stands to reason that the Raiders would want to part ways.
GM Mike Mayock signed Joyner as an unrestricted free agent in March 2019, giving the former Ram a four-year, $42MM contract. That did not turn out to be one of Mayock’s better decisions, as Joyner — who primarily played safety with the Rams but who has become Vegas’ top nickel corner — has generally struggled. As Tafur candidly remarks, Joyner has “made like five plays in two seasons,” and Pro Football Focus is not much higher on him. The advanced metrics ranked the Florida State product as the 89th-best CB in the league in 2020, out of 121 qualified players. While player and team could theoretically come to terms on a pay cut, Tafur says that doesn’t seem overly likely either.
In Tafur’s estimation, Mayock should use the No. 17 overall selection on one of this year’s top collegiate pass rushers while using some of his free agent dollars on an established safety like Denver’s Justin Simmons.
Saints May Be Unable To Retain DE Trey Hendrickson
Defensive end Trey Hendrickson was a revelation for the Saints in 2020, piling up 13.5 sacks in an unexpectedly strong platform year. Selected by New Orleans in the third round of the 2017 draft, Hendrickson had never started more than three games nor played in more than 38% of the club’s defensive snaps prior to the 2020 campaign, but he started 15 regular season contests and logged 53% of the Saints’ defensive snaps last year.
As a result, he finds himself being mentioned alongside players like Shaquil Barrett, Yannick Ngakoue, and Bud Dupree as quality pass rushers eligible to hit the open market next month. The Saints would certainly like to keep Hendrickson, but it’s unclear if they will be able to make a competitive offer.
Last week, we learned that the 2021 salary cap was likely to fall between $180MM-$181MM, which represents a significant decrease from the 2020 figure of $198.2MM. Even before the drop, the Saints were projected to be well over the salary cap, and while the club has started to reduce its cap commitments by agreeing to a renegotiated deal with retiring QB Drew Brees and releasing OL Nick Eason, there is still a lot more work to be done.
Former NFL agent and current CBS Sports analyst Joel Corry details how the Saints can bring themselves under the cap with a series of cuts and restructures, none of which seem particularly difficult to pull off (though they do include the type of machinations that have led to the Saints being right up against the cap, or over it, every offseason). His proposals do not contemplate an extension for Hendrickson, however, whom Corry says may have priced himself out of New Orleans.
Indeed, GM Mickey Loomis recently acknowledged that Hendrickson, 26, is “going to be an attractive free agent for anyone” (via Amie Just of NOLA.com). Loomis, who was speaking before the recent reports concerning the 2021 salary cap, said, “I can’t really say how strong a play we can make for that until I understand where the cap’s gonna be this year and as we go through the roster evaluations and start making our choices.”
Assuming the cap does settle in at around $180MM, a franchise tag for Hendrickson would cost about $14.5MM, and it’s unlikely the Saints would be able to carry that full amount on their books in 2021. So the only way for them to retain Hendrickson would be via a multi-year contract, and while the reduced cap could suppress the price tags of some players, it might still be difficult for New Orleans to bring back the Florida Atlantic product.
Hendrickson will doubtlessly be shooting for a deal worth at least $15MM per season, along with guarantees in the $30MM-$40MM range. He does not currently offer much by way of run defense or pass coverage, but the raw sack total he posted will attract plenty of attention, and he should find at least one team willing to meet his asking price. Whether that team is the Saints, who also have decisions to make on fellow free agents Marcus Williams and Sheldon Rankins, is very much an open question.
Latest On Washington’s Quarterback Plans
The Washington Football Team attempted to trade for Matthew Stafford last month, offering a package headlined by the No. 19 overall selection in the 2021 draft in exchange for the longtime Lions passer. Although Detroit opted to take the Rams’ offer instead, there are five other quarterbacks from outside the organization that Washington wants to explore, as John Keim of ESPN.com writes.
Keim’s source did not name those QBs, but it’s safe to assume that WFT is at least kicking the tires on trade candidates like Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, and Sam Darnold. The club’s interest in Stafford and other signal-callers obviously suggests that it is not entirely sold on having Alex Smith return as the starter next season, but that scenario remains on the table.
If he does return, though, he would need to rework his contract. He is presently scheduled to count $24.4MM against the cap in 2021, and that is simply untenable. The newly-minted Comeback Player of the Year was a remarkable story in 2020, completing his recovery from a devastating leg injury suffered in November 2018 to start six games for WFT (winning five of them) and lead the club to a playoff berth. But he was more of a game manager than anything else, as he threw for six touchdowns against eight interceptions and posted a poor 78.5 QB rating.
Plus, he will be 37 when the 2021 season starts, and he missed three of the team’s final four games — including the wildcard round matchup with the Bucs — due to a bone bruise. So it’s far from a sure thing that he will be able to handle a full 16-game slate at this point, and even if he can, he no longer possesses the type of mobility that had become a key feature of his game.
He could theoretically agree to a pay cut to stay with WFT, or he and Washington could come to terms on an extension that reduces his 2021 cap number. Keim suggests that WFT would be willing to go the extension route, as the club is concerned that forfeiting draft capital for a different quarterback would limit its ability to strengthen the rest of the roster. On the other hand, it’s unlikely that Smith would play to the end of the extension, so Washington could be saddled with substantial dead money in the future.
Of course, Washington could also release Smith, but that would only happen if the team has already acquired or is prepared to acquire another quarterback. A release would save WFT $13.6MM in cap space this year, and it would also allow the team to avoid the possibility of carrying Smith-related charges on its books beyond the 2021 season. Interestingly, multiple NFL execs, coaches, and scouts tell Keim that they view Smith as a backup at this point in his career, which might make Smith more receptive to a pay cut (though that is just my speculation).
Smith could also retire, but he did not seem ready to hang up the cleats in a recent interview. And Keim says retirement is the least likely scenario at this point, so one way or another, Washington will need to be the one to make the call on Smith’s future.
All of this suggests that WFT is not going to entertain the notion of having Taylor Heinicke open the 2021 season as the starter, despite some tongue-in-cheek calls for him to do so. The team did recently hand the near-playoff hero an extension, and while it was originally reported as a two-year, $8.75MM deal, a lot will need to go right for the soon-to-be 28-year-old to max out that contract. Nicki Jhabvala of the Washington Post has the full breakdown, which includes a $1MM salary in 2021, a $1.5MM salary in 2022, and $1.25MM in per game roster bonuses over the next two seasons (Twitter link). Field Yates of ESPN.com adds that Heinicke will pocket a $1MM signing bonus, so it’s really a two-year deal with a base value of $4.75MM and up to $4MM in incentives (Twitter link).
Meanwhile, Keim says Washington will retain Kyle Allen via an exclusive rights free agent tender. Allen followed head coach Ron Rivera from Carolina to Washington and makes for a solid third-string option if nothing else.
More Fallout From Matthew Stafford Trade
It’s been a week since the Rams and Lions completed the Matthew Stafford trade, but the fallout from that deal is ongoing. Here’s the latest:
- We previously heard that the Panthers offered their No. 8 overall pick in this year’s draft, plus a later pick, for Stafford. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (via Twitter), that later selection was a fifth-rounder, and Carolina also included Teddy Bridgewater in the proposal, so the Lions would at least have had a veteran signal-caller to take Stafford’s place while they groomed a younger QB. Plus, Detroit would have had the No. 7 and No. 8 overall picks in the draft, so it would have had a terrific chance to land a top collegiate passer and another elite prospect, or at least enough ammo to trade up for a top QB prospect.
- What’s more, Bridgewater’s contract is much less onerous than that of Jared Goff, who ended up going to the Lions in the swap. But as Peter Schrager of the NFL Network tweets, the Lions didn’t just take on Goff’s contract in order to squeeze more draft picks out of the Rams. They actually wanted Goff and believe he can regain the form he displayed in the 2017-18 seasons, which is a key factor in evaluating Detroit’s return.
- When negotiations with the Rams commenced, though, the Lions were interested in another high-profile LA player. As Schefter reports in a separate tweet, Detroit first requested DT Aaron Donald, a request that the Rams summarily dismissed. Donald just landed his third Defensive Player of the Year award, and he obviously would have gone a long way towards the Lions’ much-needed defensive rebuild.
- Stafford’s presence is attracting free agents to the Rams, as Schefter writes. Already, players have reached out to Stafford to express their interest in teaming up with him in Los Angeles, and Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones — who is eligible for free agency — is one such player. However, the Rams are projected to be well over the new salary cap of $180.5MM, so it’s unclear how active they will be in the free agent market.
Texans Rebuffing Deshaun Watson Trade Inquiries
At the end of last month, new Texans GM Nick Caserio was adamant that disgruntled quarterback Deshaun Watson would be back with the team in 2021. Apparently, that wasn’t just GM-speak, as rival teams that have called Houston to discuss a Watson deal have been told that the three-time Pro Bowler is not available, as Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport of NFL.com report.
Indeed, some executives have not even had their phone calls or text messages returned. One person close to the situation said, “[t]he goal is to get [Watson] back, period.”
But Watson still hasn’t communicated with Caserio or new head coach David Culley, even though Culley reached out to the signal-caller shortly after he was hired. So, just as the team remains firm in its position, it seems Watson remains entrenched in his.
We know that Watson’s discontent stems largely from the fact that he feels ownership misled him with respect to the team’s GM and head coaching search, and developments this week aren’t going to make him feel any better. As Adam Schefter of ESPN.com writes, Houston has continued to overhaul its staff, dismissing director of football administration Kevin Krajcovic, another longtime employee, Doug West, and equipment manager Mike Parson and his staff. Apparently, Watson and Parson had a close relationship, and Parson’s dismissal has not been well-received by players, including Watson.
The team still has some leverage in this matter, as Watson would be subject to daily fines if he stays away from minicamp or training camp, and Houston could also void his $82.5MM in remaining guarantees. On the other hand, the longer this drags out, the fewer potential suitors the Texans will have. So they need to determine quickly if the situation is salvageable, and if not, it would be in their best interest to swing a trade sooner rather than later.
Bucs Expected To Retain WR Chris Godwin
There are a number of quality wide receivers slated for free agency next month, but it sounds like the Bucs will keep one of them off the market. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, Tampa is expected to engage Chris Godwin in talks on a long-term contract before the March 9 deadline for applying the franchise tag, and if those talks do not result in a deal, it sounds as if the team is prepared to use the tag on the Pro Bowl wideout (Twitter link).
We heard last April that the Bucs were eyeing an extension for Godwin, but it’s unclear how far those negotiations advanced. Between the lack of a new contract and the fact that Tampa has a number of other key free agents to make decisions on, there was some speculation that Godwin would be playing elsewhere in 2021. But it sounds as if that won’t be the case.
This season, Godwin did not quite return to the Pro Bowl form he displayed in 2019, but he was quite effective just the same. Although his 12.9 yards-per-reception mark was a career-low, that is largely attributable to the fact that the team transitioned from Jameis Winston to Tom Brady at quarterback. Godwin’s catch rate increased to a career-best 77.4%, and had he played in all 16 games — he missed four contests due to injury — he was on pace to eclipse 1,100 receiving yards. He also scored seven TDs.
Based on the expected salary cap of $180.5MM, the franchise tag number for Godwin would be $15.808MM (h/t Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com on Twitter). Godwin can probably do better than that on a long-term contract, as the top 12 wide receiver deals in the league feature AAVs of at least $16.2MM, but it’s a fair starting point in contract talks.
The Bucs are also interested in bringing back Antonio Brown, and while Rapoport says tight end Rob Gronkowski plans to take a few weeks to make a retirement decision, he will only play for Tampa if he chooses to return in 2021. Keeping the band together for what could be the final season of Brady’s career makes plenty of sense, though it could mean that a defensive free agent like Shaquil Barrett or Lavonte David will be squeezed out of the picture.
Chiefs, Eric Bieniemy Expected To Agree To Extension
It was surprising to see Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who took head coaching interviews with six of the seven teams with an HC vacancy this offseason, fail to receive a single offer. Of course, the Chiefs will surely be happy to have one of Andy Reid‘s top lieutenants back in Kansas City in 2021, but there are some formalities to sort out first.
According to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com, Bieniemy’s contract will expire after today’s Super Bowl, which means that he will technically be a free agent. However, the two sides are expected to work out a new deal without much issue, thereby continuing the Bieniemy-Patrick Mahomes partnership for at least another year.
The new contract could include a raise, given Bienemy’s success during his tenure as the Chiefs’ OC and his status as a hot head coaching candidate. The only reason that an extension was not already in place is because KC simply believed Bieniemy would land a head coaching job elsewhere, and once it became clear that wasn’t going to happen, the playoffs were in full swing and there just wasn’t time to have those discussions.
Both Bieniemy and the Chiefs continue to expect that he will get a shot as a head coach, perhaps as soon as 2022. Until then, the 51-year-old will remain an integral part of the most prolific offense in the NFL.