Sunday Roundup: Suh, Tannehill, Manning
With Ndamukong Suh‘s free agency rapidly approaching, there is a general belief that he could be playing his last games in a Lions uniform. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, though, believes that Detroit would be foolish to let Suh leave. Birkett writes that although J.J. Watt is clearly the best defensive player in the game, Suh is not far behind him, and the Lions should pay him accordingly.
Birkett goes on to note that the Lions want to pay Suh like a dominant defensive tackle, whereas Suh’s camp believes Suh’s talent transcends positional descriptions and is therefore worthy of its own spot on the pay scale. The Lions chose to table extension discussions earlier this year, and although there was a wide gap between what Suh was demanding and what Detroit was offering at that time, Birkett believes it is not a gap that cannot be bridged (which is especially true given what Suh means to this talented Lions defense). If the Lions have to pony up a deal resembling Watt’s six-year, $100MM extension, Birkett believes the Lions should pull the trigger. Even if Detroit has to slap a $26.9MM franchise tag on Suh to preserve its exclusive negotiating rights until July 2015, he believes the team should not hesitate to do so.
With a salary cap that many project to increase by leaps and bounds in the near future, Birkett tweets that there will be room for mega-deals for both Suh and Calvin Johnson, and he adds (via Twitter) that the Lions not only should re-sign Suh, but that they will re-sign him. For what it’s worth, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that he is not convinced Suh will leave in free agency. He adds that the Lions are “very much in the mix.”
Now let’s look at a few more notes from around the league:
- Citing an AFC source, Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald tweets that the Dolphins have no choice but to pick up Ryan Tannehill‘s fifth-year option for about $15MM. Former NFL agent Joel Corry adds (via Twitter) that there is very little risk in exercising that option, as it does not become fully guaranteed until the first day of the 2016 league year.
- Adam Caplan of ESPN.com (subscription required) provides a list of the top 10 front office executives most likely to be promoted to general manager, and current Eagles VP of Player Personnel Tom Gamble is at the top of the list.
- Citing ESPN’s draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr., Adam Teicher of ESPN.com writes that the Chiefs should draft at least three wide receivers in the 2015 draft. Given that the team has several receivers near or at the end of their careers and a few unproven younger players on the roster, it is difficult to argue with Kiper’s assessment, though Teicher himself believes Kansas City should have addressed that void this year.
- In a mailbag piece, Teicher writes that the Chiefs also need to address the offensive line, but unlike the wide receiver position, Kansas City has some internal options to improve the O-line.
- We learned earlier today that the Broncos, even after the recent extension handed out to Chris Harris, will have enough cap room to retain both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas.
- Darren Wolfson of KSTP.com tweets that Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is expected to file a federal lawsuit against the NFL tomorrow.
Coaching Updates: Coughlin, Philbin, Broncos
Let’s take a look at a few items regarding two head coaches who are on the hot seat and two more who might join the head coaching ranks in 2015:
- Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that Giants head coach Tom Coughlin wants to coach for another season, and there is no guarantee that New York will fire its long-time sideline general. Steve Serby of the New York Post adds that it is not time for Coughlin to be replaced.
- Rapoport tweets that Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin‘s fate will be determined by how his team finishes the 2014 season. If Miami suffers another December swoon, Philbin’s job will be in jeopardy. Rapoport adds (via Twitter) that if Philbin is fired, the team does not plan to pursue Jim Harbaugh, contrary to numerous reports stating otherwise.
- Mike Klis of the Denver Post writes that the Broncos can expect to replace both offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio after this season, as both are prime candidates to land head coaching gigs.
Drew Stanton To Miss Four Weeks
Drew Stanton “has a realistic chance” of returning to the field in four weeks’ time, according to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen. Stanton, who suffered a sprained ACL and MCL in Thursday night’s win over St. Louis, did not fully tear the ACL, as was initially feared. Instead, an MRI revealed a Grade 2 sprain, which can be rehabbed to the point where Stanton could return for the Cardinal’s divisional round playoff game (if they make it that far, of course).
The hope, then, is that Ryan Lindley can guide Arizona to a first-round bye so that Stanton would not miss a playoff contest. The Cardinals, as Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com tweets, have offered no specifics other than to say that Stanton has suffered a knee injury.
Raiders To Make Sweeping Changes?
The Raiders are preparing to make sweeping changes, changes that involve current GM Reggie McKenzie, according to a tweet from ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Schefter, citing league sources, added that owner Mark Davis is “getting ready to spend.”
Of course, McKenzie has been on the hot seat for some time, and the Raiders have been connected in numerous reports to current 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh. They have also been reportedly interested in relocating to Los Angeles or even San Antonio. Furthermore, according to OverTheCap.com, Oakland is expected to have the most salary cap space of any team in the league this offseason, so Davis certainly will have money to spend.
As such, Schefter’s tweet probably does not come as much of a surprise to anyone, as the Raiders have been at least contemplating “sweeping changes” for a long time. It does indicate, however, that team officials have fully embraced the possibility of yet another major shakeup in Oakland (or Los Angeles, or somewhere else entirely).
AFC East Notes: Dolphins’ D, McCourty, Idzik
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, noting that the Dolphins defense is not the consistently stout force that defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle claims, took a look at the immediate future of each position in Coyle’s unit this morning. For instance, Jackson writes that defensive tackle Randy Starks is unlikely to return on his current contract, which creates a $6MM cap hit if Starks is on the team, and a $1MM hit if he is not.
Jackson adds that is is “highly questionable” if Miami will pay Jared Odrick what he could make on the open market, and the departures of both Odrick and Starks would force the team to go shopping for a run-stuffer like Dan Williams or Terrance Knighton in free agency. While the defensive end position is more or less set for 2015, Jackson notes that linebacker Dannell Ellerbe will either need to accept a pay cut or be released, and he points out that there is a strong class of free agent corners for the team to pursue as it seeks a reliable starter opposite Brent Grimes.
Now for a few more notes from the AFC East:
- Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald tweets that there is “nothing happening” on an extension between the Patriots and Devin McCourty, and that New England is expected to use the franchise tag as major leverage.
- Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com writes that one reason the Patriots might have agreed to a recent extension with Marcus Cannon is that it helps to thaw the team’s relationship with Cannon’s agent, David Dunn, a relationship that soured during the Wes Welker negotiations several seasons ago. Dunn, one of the game’s most successful agents, also represents Nate Solder, who will be a free agent in 2016, and Shane Vereen, who hits free agency after this season.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes that Jets GM John Idzik has been involved in the early stages of the team’s head coaching search, and La Canfora wonders if that might be a sign that Idzik’s job is safe. Although owner Woody Johnson could still parts ways with Idzik, particularly if the team lands a big-ticket head coach who wants a different general manager, Idzik’s early involvement and his ties to potential head coaching candidates are positive signs for him.
- Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com takes a look at the Jets’ bad fortune in recent years, noting that the team’s worst seasons tend to coincide with fairly weak drafts or drafts with no elite quarterback prospects.
- In the same piece, Cimini writes that nose tackle Damon Harrison, who has been one of the few bright spots for the Jets this season, is likely to receive the max tender (which is expected to be higher than 2014’s $3.1MM figure) as he hits restricted free agency.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul
In 2011, just his second year in the league, Jason Pierre-Paul displayed in grand fashion just what made him so appealing to the Giants, who selected him with the 15th overall pick of the 2010 draft. Using a rare and dynamic blend of size, speed, and athleticism, the man affectionately known as “JPP” racked up 16.5 sacks and was ranked by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) as the league’s sixth best 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible players. Pierre-Paul also led his position in total tackles, and he earned first-team All-Pro honors in recognition of his efforts as the most dangerous defensive player on the eventual Super Bowl champions.
It would have been difficult to top his outstanding 2011 campaign, but there seems to be a general belief, probably driven in large part by his lower sack totals, that Pierre-Paul has not even come close to replicating his performance from that season. Although he did amass only 6.5 sacks in 2012, PFF (subscription required) ranked him third among 62 qualified 4-3 defensive ends that year, and after an injury-shortened 2013, JPP is up to his old tricks this season, ranking as the fourth-best player at his position among 54 eligible players (subscription required). Although the Giants’ defense as a whole has been fairly pedestrian over the course of Pierre-Paul’s career (according to Football Outsiders’ metrics), Pierre-Paul seems to be holding up his end of the bargain.
Nonetheless, the two sides appear headed for a parting of the ways after 2014. As PFR’s Rob DiRe wrote last month, Pierre-Paul appeared ambivalent about returning to the club in 2015, stating, “Hey, if I’m here, I’m here, if I’m not, I’m not.” JPP did deliver the usual platitudes while discussing how much he has enjoyed his time as a Giant, but for a struggling team that has a bevy of potentially franchise-altering questions to answer this offseason, a mega-deal for Pierre-Paul might not be the wisest investment, no matter how much cap room New York might have.
So what will a new contract look like for a player in the prime of his career who plays a premium position and who may hit double-digit sack totals for the second time in four full seasons in the league? Robert Quinn, a 4-3 defensive end who was drafted one year later than Pierre-Paul and who has put together three consecutive seasons of 10.5 or more sacks (including a whopping 19 in 2013), signed a four-year extension with St. Louis in September, a deal worth about $67MM.
That contract seems to be a fair benchmark for JPP, although he stands to make more on the open market than he would if he were to sign an extension with New York. Another reasonable comparison might be Justin Houston, a premier pass rusher from the outside linebacker position who expects to land a contract valued somewhere between Quinn’s deal and the extension recently signed by J.J. Watt, a six-year pact worth as much as $100MM (with $51.8MM guaranteed). A five-year deal worth $80MM would seem like a fair price for both Houston and JPP, and that is about what I would expect both players to make on the free agent market.
Of course, the franchise tag remains an option, but as Paul Schwartz of the New York Post pointed out in October, the nearly $15MM projected cost of the tag “is impractical and probably impossible for the Giants to handle.” Schwartz also notes that Pierre-Paul, who was just 21 when he was drafted, is hitting free agency at a younger age than most players, and his willingness and ability to stop the run is not only an underrated part of his game, but also an attribute often difficult to find among so-called pass-rush specialists.
The knocks on JPP, of course, are his injury history—he struggled with back and shoulder injuries in 2012 and 2013—his relatively modest sack total after 2011, and the fact that much of his success is based on his athleticism rather than his technique, which is still raw in many ways. But, as Schwartz wrote, and as Pro Football Focus evaluations indicate, the sack totals are not indicative of Pierre-Paul’s abilities, and if he can complete 2014 in good health, the injury concerns may begin to fade. So while JPP’s next contract will probably not match Watt’s, he could get surprisingly close—especially in this era of the ever-increasing salary cap—and his departure would leave a very big hole in Big Blue. The Giants will have to decide if mending that hole is worth the price.
Sammie Hill Accused Of Sexual Assault
Titans defensive tackle Sammie Hill has been accused of sexual assault and the claim is being investigated by the Atlanta Police Department, according to Jordan Buie of the Tennessean. As Buie writes, a 37-year-old woman in Houston contacted Houston police last Wednesday and reported that she was assaulted by Hill in a hotel room in Atlanta.
Hill, who has two sacks and 25 total tackles this season, has discussed the matter with the Titans, who released the following statement:
“We will let the police investigate the allegation and we will provide any assistance they need. We have discussed the matter with Sammie and we will continue to gather facts.”
We will pass along more information as it becomes available.
Monday Roundup: QB Dilemmas, Pitta, Lewis
After predictably non-committal responses in his post-game press conference yesterday, Browns head coach Mike Pettine said today that “it’s natural to lean the other way” when considering who his starting quarterback should be moving forward (per ESPN.com’s Pat McManamon) The “other way” in this case is, of course, Johnny Manziel, whom Dennis Manoloff of the Cleveland Plain Dealer believes will get the nod over the struggling Brian Hoyer in next week’s matchup against Cincinnati.
Now for some more links from around the league:
- Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com writes that the Ravens expect Dennis Pitta to return in 2015 and that his second major hip injury will not force him into retirement.
- Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall supports quarterback Jay Cutler, but Marshall agrees with reports that the team is probably experiencing buyer’s remorse for Cutler’s contract, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPN.com.
- The Jets will work out cornerback Keith Lewis tomorrow, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun (writing for the National Football Post).
- Rick Stroud of the Tampa Times writes that Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith will re-evaluate whether Josh McCown or Mike Glennon should be the bridge to the franchise quarterback that many believe the team will select with its first pick in next year’s draft. Stroud notes that Glennon, at least, could show enough in the season’s final three weeks to generate some trade interest, and an Associated Press report suggests that Tampa Bay could indeed turn to Glennon down the stretch.
- The Eagles‘ poor offensive showing against Seattle naturally generated a great deal of conversation regarding the team’s quarterback situation, especially with Nick Foles‘ return nearing, writes Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. However, head coach Chip Kelly said simply, “I have no updates on Nick.”
- Like its division rivals, Washington has a quarterback dilemma on its hands, but Gary Mihoces of USA Today writes that head coach Jay Gruden will wait for an update on Colt McCoy‘s neck sprain before naming a starter for Week 15.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com looks at the players who saw their stock drop in Week 14, including, of course, Hoyer.
Sunday Roundup: Big Ben, Cobb, 49ers
The Steelers plan to begin contract talks with Ben Roethlisberger, who is under contract through 2015, after this season, according to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports. Pittsburgh realizes that Roethlisberger, despite his age and the number of hits he has taken over the course of his career, will command at least $20MM a year, but that will not prevent the club from making its two-time Super Bowl champion its top offseason priority.
La Canfora adds that he would not be surprised if the Steelers and Roethlisberger were able to work out an extension prior to the beginning of the free agency period in March, which would allow them to know exactly how much cap flexibility they would have to acquire players from other organizations and to retain their own free agents. Last season’s rumors that Roethlisberger once considered asking for a trade were apparently untrue, La Canfora writes, and now all interested parties agree that a third contract with the team is inevitable.
Now for some more links from around the league as Week 14 kicks off in full force:
- ESPN’s Adam Caplan tweets that the Steelers will have an important decision to make regarding cornerback Cortez Allen this offseason, as Allen is owed a $3MM roster bonus on the fifth day of free agency.
- Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes that Randall Cobb is the Packers‘ top free agent priority and that the team is working to work out a long-term extension with him.
- Although a possible 49ers trade of head coach Jim Harbaugh following the 2014 season has been widely discussed, the machinations of such a deal are a little less clear. As Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets, Harbaugh would pick his new team, the 49ers would agree to trade terms with that team, the 49ers would release Harbaugh from his contract, and Harbaugh would sign a new deal with the other club.
- Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com writes that Vernon Davis‘ disappointing 2014 season has created a great deal of uncertainty for the 49ers moving forward, as Davis is owed just shy of $5MM in 2015, the last year of his current contract.
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports tweets that highly-coveted CFL prospect Duron Carter will hold a Pro Day in Florida in early January and then will begin visiting teams. Almost half of the league has expressed some form of interest in Carter to date.
- Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that Mike Singletary could be a surprise head coaching candidate in 2015. According to Rapoport, several “high-ranking people” believe Singletary will get another crack at the top job next season.
East Notes: Revis, Briles, Cowboys
The Patriots will have a big decision to make regarding the future of star cornerback Darrelle Revis this offseason, and Tom Curran and Mike Giardi of CSNNewEngland.com discuss in a video piece what that decision will entail. Although Revis has stated that he does not need to be the highest paid cornerback in the league to be happy, Curran and Giardi note that Revis is a shrewd businessman and that it will take a fair (read: highly-lucrative) offer to get a deal done.
Let’s take a look at a few more items from the league’s east divisions:
- In the same piece, Curran and Giardi examine how the Patriots might negotiate with injured linebacker Jerod Mayo. They note that New England may approach Mayo with an incentive-laden offer based upon health, which was the team’s strategy when negotiating with Vince Wilfork.
- Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com writes that losing Aaron Dobson for the season serves as yet another reminder of how difficult it has been for the Patriots to draft and develop quality receiving talent under Bill Belichick (though Belichick has usually done more than enough to compensate for that deficiency in other ways).
- In a piece that will probably surprise no one, ESPN’s Adam Schefter writes that Jets GM John Idzik has alienated members of his coaching staff and front office, further fueling the belief that the team’s administration will undergo a complete overhaul in the offseason.
- Jason Cole of Bleacher Report notes (via Twitter) that if Washington fires first-year head coach Jay Gruden after the 2014 season (as PFR’s Rob DiRe discussed last night), the team should pursue current Baylor University head coach Art Briles, whose offense would mesh well with Robert Griffin III‘s skillset. Albert Breer of the NFL Network, however, tweets that it would be a “shocker” if Briles were to leave Texas.
- Todd Archer of ESPNDallas.com describes how the Cowboys might go about manipulating their salary cap in order to create enough room to retain Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, and Rolando McClain, but he notes that the player Dallas should really focus on is right tackle Doug Free.