Extension Candidate: Carlos Dunlap

Earlier this year, defensive end Carlos Dunlap opted to skip the Bengals’ organized team activities. The decision to work out on his own in Florida cost him $300K in bonuses, but it may have helped him ramp up pressure on the team as he pushes for a new deal. For his part, Dunlap claims his decision was made for football reasons

[RELATED:Tyler Kroft Seeking Contract Extension]

“All the comments and everything talking about the reasons for me not being here obviously hit home a little bit because they painted me to be a selfish guy, which was not my objective,” Dunlap said. “My goal was to make sure I was in the best shape for when football starts so that I can be there for my team for the long haul.”

Either way, it’s clear that Dunlap wants to stay with the Bengals beyond 2018 on a new and improved deal. The Bengals also want to keep him for the long haul, but only at the right price.

Dunlap is entering the final year of the six-year, $40MM extension he signed in 2013. The 29-year-old will earn a base salary of $7MM, which is well below his true value.

Extending Dunlap is a pricey proposition and the decision is complicated by the club’s other extension candidates. Fellow defensive lineman Geno Atkins is entering the final year of his contract and a new pact may call for upwards of $12MM per year. Cornerback Darqueze Dennard is coming off of a career year and the Bengals would like to keep him, despite the presence of Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson III. There’s also a trio of tight ends to consider in Tyler Kroft, Tyler Eifert, and C.J. Uzomah, and the team may want to leave some money in the coffers to re-sign defensive end Michael Johnson after the 2018 season.

The Bengals have also invested heavily in defensive ends in recent drafts by adding Carl LawsonJordan Willis, and Sam Hubbard. In theory, they can part with Dunlap if the price gets too high if they are confident in their your DE group.

Still, Dunlap has been tremendous in Cincinnati, particularly in the second half of games. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus have routinely rated him as a top-30 edge defender over the past seven seasons and he has been equally strong against the pass and the run. Even if the youngsters could do an admirably job in his stead, losing Dunlap would hurt the team’s front seven.

Dunlap is well aware of the riches that could await him in free agency as the edge defender market continues to rise sharply. In theory, Dunlap could parlay a big 2018 season into a $15MM/year deal, but he would be taking a risk if he cannot turn in another quality season for the Bengals. A new deal would give him financial security and, depending on the length of the deal, give him an opportunity to retire with the only club he’s ever known.

There are a lot of mouths to feed in Cincinnati, but Johnson’s expiring $6.1MM contract should provide the team enough room to get a deal done. If Dunlap is willing to sacrifice some upside in order to remain with the Bengals, the two sides could find a midpoint with a four-year extension in the range of $50MM. Alternatively, a shorter extension could make sense for the two sides. An additional three years added to Dunlap’s contract would allow him to hit the open market again at the age of 32 and give the Bengals some wiggle room should they look to hang on to their trio of younger defensive ends.

East Notes: Bills, Giants, OBJ, Jets, Pryor

It’s okay to be optimistic about the 2018 Bills, Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic writes. While the offense lost a few key pieces, Fairburn argues that some change was probably needed after the passing offense finished 28th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. With a new offensive coordinator in Brian Daboll and three new QBs in A.J. McCarron, Josh Allen, and Nathan Peterman, the Bills undeniably have shaken things up, even if there are some question marks.

The real reason of optimism, of course, is the defense, where they have added Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker plus Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, and Trent Murphy on the defensive line. The Bills’ run defense was among the worst in the NFL last year, but they have nowhere to go up from here.

Here’s more from the East divisions:

  • As the Giants ponder an extension for Odell Beckham Jr., former agent Joel Corry gave his thoughts on what a new deal might look like. He tells Paul Schwartz of the New York Post that a five-year, $95MM deal ($19MM average annual value) with up to $45MM guaranteed at signing should get the job done. However, he believe that OBJ would be better off betting on himself via a shorter deal. If he’s willing to take that risk, he suggests a three-year extension for about $55MM, with $40MM in guarantees.
  • It feels like it’s all or nothing for Jets wide receiver Terrelle Pryor this year, Brian Costello of the New York Post writes. Signed to a one-year, $4.5MM contract this season, Pryor can be an interesting weapon if he’s healthy and offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates figures out creative ways to use him. If his second career ankle surgery holds him back, however, the deal could prove to be a mistake for Gang Green. The Jets are hoping that the moderate gamble pans out, particularly since Robby Anderson could be suspended to start the season.
  • Will the Bills, Eagles, or Patriots sign Dez Bryant? Or do you think the Cowboys will shock everyone with a reunion? Click here to vote on where you think the wide receiver will land.

South Notes: Saints, Davis, Texans

The Saints‘ linebacker corps has slowly improved over the past couple of seasons, but the addition of free agent Demario Davis appears to be the best addition yet, Larry Holder of the Times Picayune writes.

After signing a three-year, $24MM deal ($16MM guaranteed), Davis appears set to be come the team’s fifth different Week 1 starting middle linebacker in the past five seasons. He’s coming off of a career year with 97 total tackles and five sacks, so he should be up to the task.

You may be surprised to learn that Davis graded out as the eighth-best linebacker in the NFL last year, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s thanks in part to his run-stopping abilities, but also his better-than-average pass coverage score.

Here’s more from the South divisions:

Browns Place Donald Stephenson On Reserve/Retired List

The Browns have placed offensive lineman Donald Stephenson on the reserve/retired list, according to an announcement from the team. Stephenson signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with Cleveland in the spring, but he won’t be suiting up for the Browns.

Stephenson, 30 in September, saw his 2017 season with the Broncos cut short due to a torn calf muscle. He appeared in seven games with four starts before being shut down for the year. Stephenson’s 303 snaps were not enough to qualify for Pro Football Focus’ rankings, but in a larger sample, he would have graded out as the 12th-worst tackle in the league.

It’s not immediately clear why Stephenson is walking away from the game. He was handed a two-game ban for violating the league’s substance abuse policy in June and also skipped the Browns’ mandatory minicamp. Stephenson was already out $80K and was set to lose out on $300K in fines for the suspension, so the ban may have impacted his decision.

Stephenson was to serve as the first tackle off of the bench behind starters Shon Coleman and Chris Hubbard. For the first two weeks of the year, the Browns may lean more heavily on reserves Greg Robinson, and Spencer Drango for support. The Browns could also explore alternatives in free agency.

Extension Candidate: Brandon Graham

Last year, the Eagles tacked some incentives onto Brandon Graham‘s deal amidst rumblings that he was considering a holdout. Graham is once again pushing for an extension as he nears his walk year, but this time around, it’ll take more than an extra $1.5MM in performance bonuses to satisfy him. 

Graham is among the best 4-3 defensive ends in the game today, but his current salary does not reflect his performance. His average of $6.5MM/year on his current contract ranks 20th among 4-3 DEs, despite the fact that he graded out as the eighth-best overall edge defender in the league last year.

The veteran is coming off of a career-high 9.5 sacks and even iced the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory with his late-game strip sack of Tom Brady. Even though he celebrated his 30th birthday in April, he has plenty of juice as he sits across from GM Howie Roseman at the table.

Recently, Joel Corry of CBSSports.com predicted that Graham would not accept anything less than Everson Griffen‘s four-year, $58MM extension with the Vikings, which includes $18.8MM in full guarantees. Graham is 30, but Griffen is a few months older than him and is arguably the lesser player of the two, despite his 13 sacks in 2017.

The Eagles want to keep Graham in the fold, but their tight cap situation may limit how far they can go. A creative workaround for both sides may be to give Graham an even greater guarantee percentage than Griffen. After the Vikings gave Griffen a healthy 32.4% fully guaranteed at signing, the Eagles may be willing to push that number closer to 40% in order to shave some dollars off of the overall total. It wouldn’t be completely unprecedented – the Giants guaranteed $40MM of Olivier Vernon‘s $85MM free agent deal in 2016, which accounts for 47% of his deal.

Graham’s age and recent offseason ankle surgery may give the Eagles some pause about a hefty guarantee, but the former first round pick has not missed significant time since the 2011 season. There are worse bets to make, and a fat guarantee could give the Eagles the flexibility they’ll need to retain players like running back Jay Ajayi, cornerback Ronald Darby, and wide receiver Nelson Agholor down the line.

Cowboys, DeMarcus Lawrence To Meet Next Week

The Cowboys and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence are expected to meet next week, according to Calvin Watkins of The Athletic. Lawrence is seeking a five-year deal, a source tells Watkins, but he’s not in a rush to sign. 

As we’ve heard before, Lawrence is willing to play out the season on his one-year, $17.1MM franchise tag. He’s also waiting things out to see if at least one of the other top defenders will sign an extension first. That means waiting on Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, and Jadeveon Clowney, though Lawrence is the only one in the group that is actually bound by a deadline. Franchise tagged players have until July 16 to sign extensions, so Lawrence may be compelled to act first.

Lawrence, 26, had 14.5 sacks in 2017. That total was the most by a Cowboys player since DeMarcus Ware had 19 in 2011. The Cowboys also notched 38 sacks as a team, giving them their highest total overall since ’11.

The Cowboys would obviously like to lock Lawrence up for years to come, but they probably have some reservations as well. Specifically, his back issues. Lawrence has undergone surgery in the past, though he did not miss any games last season.

Lawrence may be gunning to top Olivier Vernon‘s five-year, $85MM deal with the Giants and his agent – the same one that represents Vernon – wants at least $17MM/year. For what it’s worth, Lawrence’s ’17 sack total nearly doubled Vernon’s total from his contract year. He also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 3 ranked DE, putting him behind only Cameron Jordan and Von Miller amongst edge rushers.

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East Notes: Jets, Enunwa, Giants, Collins

With free agency on the horizon, Jets wide receiver Quincy Enunwa has a lot to prove, Manish Mehta of the Daily News writes. In 2016, Eric Decker‘s season-ending injury opened up the door for Enunwa and he made the most of his opportunity as he led the Jets in receiving yards (857) and touchdowns (four) and finished second in receptions (58) and targets (105). However, he was lost for the 2017 season when he aggravated a neck injury over the summer.

Now, Enunwa has returned to find a crowded wide receiver room, albeit one with plenty of question marks. Enunwa figures to stay involved thanks to his big 6’2″ frame and run blocking ability, but as Mehta points out, he’ll have to curtail his drops. In 2016, Enunwa’s 12 drops were the second most in the NFL, even as he led the league in catch rate on deep targets.

If Enunwa can stay healthy and hang on to more of the balls that hit his hands, he could be on the path to riches in 2019, whether it’s with the Jets or with a different club.

Here’s more from the East divisions:

  • What will it cost for the Giants to lock up safety Landon Collins? Ryan Dunleavy of NJ.com spoke with former agent Joel Corry and cap expert Jason Fitzgerald to get an idea of what a new contract might cost. Corry estimated that Collins’ camp will seek no less $12MM per year, while Fitzgerald posited that a fair deal would call for $62MM over five years ($12.4MM/year) with between $35MM and $37MM guaranteed. For now, Collins is due to make $1.2MM in 2018, the final year of his rookie contract.
  • Bo Wulf of The Athletic took a stab at predicting the Eagles‘ 53-man roster for Week 1. In his estimation, there are 38 players that have already punched their ticket, leaving 15 spots up for grabs. Interestingly, Wulf picks UDFA running back Josh Adams to come away with the No. 4 RB spot, ahead of 2017 fourth-rounder Donnel Pumphrey, Wendell Smallwood, and Matt Jones. The Eagles, in theory, could carry a fifth running back, but Wulf expects them to allocate that roster spot elsewhere.
  • The Dolphins recently conducted a private interview with Virginia Tech cornerback Adonis Alexander, according to a source who spoke with Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Miami also attended Alexander’s Pro Day, so he could be a real consideration for the team in next week’s supplemental draft.

Only 14 NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned

As training camp draws near, the overwhelming majority of this year’s NFL Draft picks have inked their rookie contracts. As shown on PFR’s tracker, 242 rookies have put pen to paper, leaving only the following 14 players in limbo:

All but three of the unsigned players are in the first round, but the circumstances surrounding each negotiation are not the same. For those in the top 10, the holdup appears to be over offset language. When it comes to the players in the backend of the first round, agents are haggling over guarantees in the fourth year of the rookie contracts.

Before fans panic about potential holdouts, it’s important to remember that elongated negotiations are not uncommon, even under the simplified parameters set forth by the current CBA. Late last June, we had a dozen stragglers still waiting to sign their first NFL deals. The time to worry, if there ever is one, will come when training camp opens later this month.

AFC North Notes: Browns, Steelers, Bell

The Browns overhauled much of their roster this offseason, but questions remain about how they will fill the void left by Joe Thomas‘ retirement, Dan Labbe of Cleveland.com writes. Shon Coleman will likely open training camp at No. 1, but there is a group waiting behind him, including second-round pick Austin Corbett, undrafted free agent Desmond Harrison, and new addition Greg Robinson.

If the Browns do not feel comfortable with any of those options, they could consider moving Joel Bitonio from guard to tackle. Bitonio played left tackle at Nevada, and the Browns have experimented with him at tackle in practice this offseason, but that transition would take one of the best guards in the game away from his best position.

Just because you’re the best guy doesn’t mean you’re in the best spot,” offensive line coach Bob Wylie said. “Joel is an elite left guard. Could he play tackle? Sure, but it would take a while for him to learn the nuances. If he’s the best lineman, is he really the best left tackle? Not necessarily.”

In theory, the Browns could also explore out-of-house left tackle options, though the free agent market has mostly dried up at this stage of the offseason.

Here’s more from the AFC North: