Extension Candidate News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Jeremy Maclin

October 2nd, 2014 at 1:23pm CST by Luke Adams

Whether or not they strictly adhere to them, many teams have policies in place that precludes in-season contract extensions, even for players on the verge of free agency. A Week 1 deadline for contract negotiations means that players won’t be distracted during the season by haggling over contract figures, and can focus all their attention on their performance on the field as they play for a new contract.

The Eagles haven’t completed an in-season extension for one of their players since 2009, but the club isn’t entirely opposed to the concept. Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported last week that the team is open to the idea of locking up No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin to a deal that will keep him in an Eagles uniform beyond this season. While it’s not clear if negotiations between Philadelphia and Maclin’s camp are underway, the 26-year-old is eligible for free agency in March, so the team should be motivated to get something done, if not during the season, then shortly thereafter.

Coming off an ACL injury that wiped out his 2013 season, Maclin settled for a one-year, $5.5MM contract, even though the Eagles were willing to make him a longer-term offer. The former 19th overall pick reportedly turned down a five-year proposal from the team, preferring to bet on himself to have a big 2014 season and earn a more lucrative deal in 2015.

While terms of the Eagles’ five-year offer to Maclin aren’t known, it wouldn’t surprise me if it was in the same ballpark as the contract offered to and signed by fellow wideout Riley Cooper. After setting career-highs in receptions (47), receiving yards (835), and touchdowns (eight) during the 2013 campaign, Cooper received a five-year, $22.5MM contract, with $8MM in fully guaranteed money. Maclin’s track record suggested he had a higher ceiling – and floor – than Cooper, so perhaps the Eagles offered him a little more in terms of annual average salary or guaranteed money. But Maclin was coming off a serious knee injury, so it seems unlikely Philadelphia made him too lucrative an offer, especially considering the Missouri product opted for the one-year deal instead.

A contract in the ballpark of Cooper’s deal may have been a fair offer eight months ago, but Maclin’s value is already on the rise through four games this season. He leads the Eagles in all major receiving categories, and is on pace to establish new career-bests in receptions (80), receiving yards (1,412), and touchdowns (12).

Of course, projecting one’s pace after just a quarter of the season is a dangerous game, particularly for a player like Maclin, who is coming off a major injury a year ago and hasn’t played a full 16-game slate since 2010. Still, Maclin’s early-season production suggests he’s capable of assuming the role of Philadelphia’s top wideout now that DeSean Jackson is in Washington, and if he and the Eagles open extension talks, Maclin’s September play will factor significantly in his asking price.

As long as Maclin continues to produce and stays healthy, he should have a chance to match or exceed the five-year contracts signed by the top free agent wideouts of 2014’s class — Eric Decker‘s $36.25MM pact and Golden Tate‘s $31MM deal would likely be targets for Maclin and his agent, and you can certainly make a case that those players are appropriate comparables for the Eagles wideout.

Decker’s numbers during his final two years in Denver were markedly better than any of Maclin’s full-season totals, but those figures were impacted greatly by the fact that Peyton Manning was throwing passes to Decker. As for Tate, in a more conservative Seattle offense, his 64-catch, 898-yard production in 2013 looks pretty similar to the sort of seasons Maclin was posting during his first four years in Philadelphia. In a more pass-heavy Lions offense this season, Tate is off to a start similar to Maclin’s, minus the touchdowns — 24 receptions for 317 yards.

The Eagles may be inclined to wait until season’s end to address Maclin’s contract situation, in order to ensure he stays healthy and continues to build rapport with quarterback Nick Foles. But if the sixth-year wideout does both of those things, his stock will only continue to rise right along with his 2014 receiving totals. Getting him locked up now to a contract in the neighborhood of Decker’s could be Philadelphia’s most prudent move, and perhaps an annual salary in the $7-8MM range would be enough to get Maclin to sign off the sort of five-year contract he turned down last winter.

Extension Candidate: Torrey Smith

August 18th, 2014 at 10:45pm CST by Rory Parks

Torrey Smith, who was drafted by the Ravens with the 58th overall pick in the 2011 draft, is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Although he struggled with drops in his first training camp, he was given a chance to start against the Rams in Week 3 of his rookie season when veteran Lee Evans went down with an injury. In the first quarter in St. Louis, Smith recorded the first three receptions of his pro career; they all went for touchdowns.

Since then, Smith has established himself as Baltimore’s premier receiving threat. Even when he shared a field with Anquan Boldin, his speed and play-making ability was the element of the Ravens’ passing game that drew the most attention from opposing defenses. Last season, he set career highs in receptions (65) and yards (1,128) and boasted an impressive 17.4 yards per reception, which matched his 2012 mark and serves as a testament to his big play potential.

However, he has been referred to as a “one-trick pony,” with his one trick being his ability to blow past opposing corners on deep routes. Although that assessment may be somewhat harsh, his route running has not developed as much as the team would like and his hands still let him down on occasion (though he has demonstrated marked improvement in each of those areas over the course of his first several seasons in the league). For what it’s worth, he also ranked as the 76th-best receiver out of 108 eligible wideouts, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required).

As such, it is difficult to put a finger on what an extension for Smith might look like. 2014 will be a defining season for a number of Ravens’ offensive players, as the unit will now be guided by the West Coast leanings of respected offensive mind Gary Kubiak, who is being treated as something of a savior among Baltimore fans. If Smith demonstrates continued improvement in his raw statistics while also showing advancements in his route running ability–indeed, Kubiak’s offense will require proficiency in short and intermediate routes, even if he takes a few shots downfield every game–he will be in line for a huge payday (think something along the lines of the five-year, $60MM deal Mike Wallace signed last season). If, on the other hand, he stagnates a bit, he will still be paid handsomely, but his new contract would likely keep him in the second or third tier of receivers. Something akin to the five-year, $42.5MM deal that Antonio Brown signed in July 2012 would probably be a reasonable benchmark.

Back in March, we learned that the Ravens made it known that a new contract for Smith was a priority, and Smith indicated that the feeling was mutual. Smith, who grew up in Virginia and went on to star at the University of Maryland, is not a true No. 1 receiver just yet. However, he is far and away the closest thing to a No. 1 that the Ravens have ever drafted, he has come up with a number of clutch catches, and he has been a consistent and positive presence in the Baltimore community. It is understandable, then, why both parties have interest in getting something done.

At this point, though, it does not appear that a new deal will be reached until the 2014 season is over. Although we do not know what offers the team has previously extended to Smith, it could be that, like his teammate Joe Flacco in 2012, Smith is “betting on himself” this year. With Steve Smith playing opposite him and a top-flight offensive coordinator on board–not to mention new wide receivers coach Bobby Engram, who, in his playing career, excelled in the areas where Smith still struggles–the conditions are perfect for Smith to take the proverbial next step and land a mega-deal in the process. The Ravens would probably be glad to meet his price if he does so, even if that price makes Smith one of the richest wideouts in the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Charles Clay

August 17th, 2014 at 7:36pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Given that later rounds of the NFL draft tend to be crapshoots, the success of two players selected in the sixth round of the 2011 draft is something at which to marvel. The more notable player, chosen with pick No. 191, is Eagles center Jason Kelce. The former Cincinnati Bearcat, now regarded as one of the best centers in the league, was signed to a six-year, $37.5MM extension in February.

Chosen 17 picks before Kelce was a slightly more anonymous player — tight end Charles Clay. Clay, 25, is not only entering the his fourth season with the Dolphins, but the final year of his rookie contract. As such, he could be a candidate for a new deal that, if not equal to the length and/or compensation of Kelce, more correctly aligns with his production. In fact, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that Clay’s agent has approached the Dolphins about an extension, but the talks haven’t led to any serious negotiations.

Clay entered the league three years ago after playing college ball at Tulsa. During his rookie season, he displayed versatility by spending time at both tight end and fullback, but finished with just 16 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. After transitioning to playing solely TE in 2012, he ended the year with a nearly identical statistical line. Clay broke out in 2013, however, displaying a rapport with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and catching 69 balls for 759 yards and six touchdowns — he also rushed the ball seven times.

Advanced metrics don’t indicate as much positive development for Clay as do traditional stats. Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required) have painted Clay as merely ordinary over the course of his career — he ranked as just the 36th- and 34th-best tight end in the league in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Last year, specifically, PFF painted Clay as a well above-average pass-catcher, but lackluster in terms of pass-blocking. Football Outsiders has a similar opinion of Clay, as he finished 41st and 20th in DVOA over the past two years.

There are several potential roadblocks regarding extension talks from the Dolphins’ point of view, two of which Jackson notes. First, Clay only has one season of above-average production; Miami might want to wait and see if he is able to maintain last year’s level of play. Second, Clay recently aggravated his surgically-repaired knee, so the Dolphins could be wary of further injury risk. It’s just my speculation, but the Dolphins might also be worried about Clay’s fit in new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s scheme. Lazor worked under Chip Kelly in Philadelphia last year, and tight ends weren’t overly featured in the Eagles offense.

So what would a Clay extension look like? He probably won’t match Kyle Rudolph‘s five-year, $36.5MM deal — Rudolph had a second-round pedigree, and the Vikings were likely projecting a big season for the fourth-year TE with the help of offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Further down the list of tight end contracts is Jared Cook‘s five-year, $35.1MM pact with the Rams, which now looks like a major overpay. Descend further, and find the contracts of Brandon Pettigrew and Anthony Fasano that probably set the floor for Clay — four years, $16MM, with between $4-5MM guaranteed.

Among tight ends, there isn’t a perfect comparable with which to juxtapose Clay. The best deal to view might be that of Martellus Bennett, who received a $5.1MM AAV over four years, with $5.215MM in guarantees. Bennett is probably a better overall player, but Clay is two years younger and offers more versatility. The Dolphins will have to judge whether they value Clay as much as the Bears valued Bennett. In the end, I would guess a deal gets worked out, perhaps in-season. Working with an innovative coordinator like Lazor, Clay could be in for an even bigger season, and Miami could win big with a forward-looking contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Cam Newton

August 5th, 2014 at 12:10pm CST by Luke Adams

After nearly a full offseason without a 2011 first-round draft pick signing a contract extension, a pair of players kicked things off once training camp got underway, as cornerback Patrick Peterson inked a long-term deal with the Cardinals, followed by offensive tackle Tyron Smith doing the same with the Cowboys. Still, the introduction of the fifth-year option for first-round picks has slowed – or at least delayed – negotiations for most of the first-rounders from 2011, the best of whom are now locked up through 2015 thanks to those options.

It has created something of a paradox, as the star players perhaps most deserving of new deals still don’t have them, while 2011 draftees selected in later rounds have more leverage to get something done. In recent weeks, two noteworthy quarterbacks drafted in 2011 have signed new contracts, as Colin Kaepernick reached a long-term agreement with the 49ers, and Andy Dalton put pen to paper to remain with the Bengals. Both Kaepernick and Dalton were second-round picks, meaning they were entering contract years. On the other hand, 2011’s first overall pick, Cam Newton, is currently under contract through 2015 after Carolina exercised his fifth-year option, which gives the team an extra year to work something out.

Nonetheless, even if Newton and the Panthers aren’t likely to announce a new deal before the calendar turns over to 2015, the 25-year-old is a strong candidate to receive a contract extension at some point. So it’s worth exploring what sort of deal he may eventually sign.

Unlike some of his contemporaries, Newton took over his club’s starting job from day one, having started all 48 games for the Panthers over the course of his three NFL seasons. The Auburn product was also effective immediately, racking up over 4,000 passing yards and running for an incredible 14 touchdowns in his rookie season — he has yet to match or surpass either total. Still, while Newton’s first season may have been his most impressive statistically, he has helped the Panthers steadily improve in the years since, going from six wins in 2011 to seven in 2012 before leading the team to an NFC South crown with a 12-4 record in 2013.

Newton is the Panthers’ quarterback of the future — the team is confident of that much. And that simple fact means the floor on his next contract should be fairly high. It’s hard to argue, for instance, that Newton should receive any less than Dalton, who agreed to a six-year, $96MM pact that can be worth up to $115MM depending on whether the Bengals have postseason success with Dalton at the controls. Still, the structure of Dalton’s contract makes it fairly team-friendly, allowing Cincinnati to part ways with him cheaply after two or three seasons if the club isn’t happy with his progress. Newton seems more likely to push for the kind of deals signed by the likes of Jay Cutler and Tony Romo — not only is the annual base value on those extensions a little higher (around $18MM per year), but the up-front guarantees ($38-40MM) are significantly more sizable than the ones earned by Dalton and Kaepernick.

Cutler and Romo signed those contracts despite not having extensive postseason success, so Newton’s lack of playoff experience shouldn’t necessarily hurt his leverage significantly. But Newton also hasn’t posted the kind of huge regular season passing numbers that Romo has — over the last three years, the Cowboys’ quarterback has averaged 4,305 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and just 13 interceptions, compared to 3,766, 21, and 14 for Newton.

A key issue in negotiations between Newton and the Panthers will be the question of how much value his running ability adds to his overall worth. With 28 rushing touchdowns in three years, Newton essentially makes up the difference between his and Romo’s passing TD totals with his legs. However, a quarterback’s ability to run the ball usually takes a hit as he ages, and if the Panthers want to commit to Newton for five or six additional seasons, they’ll need to consider how long his rushing ability will help compensate for his middling passing production, or whether they expect those passing skills to improve.

As is, Newton has ranked among Pro Football Focus’ top 15 quarterbacks in each of his first three seasons (subscription required), but he has also posted the lowest passing grade among the top 15 in all three seasons — overall, PFF has assigned Newton a +39.0 career grade for his running, compared to a -2.4 career mark for his passing. By comparison, Ryan Fitzpatrick (0.0), Eli Manning (-0.3), and Kellen Clemens (-0.6) were among the quarterbacks with better passing grades than Newton in 2013.

With negotiations between Newton and the Panthers unlikely to significantly ramp up until after the 2014 season, one also has to wonder if Newton’s value could dip between now and then. So far, the 25-year-old has avoided big hits and has stayed very healthy, but running quarterbacks are generally more likely to be injured than pocket passers. Additionally, even if Newton plays another 16 games this season, his offensive weapons are a little lacking, after the club saw receivers Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn, and Domenik Hixon depart via free agency. First-round pick Kelvin Benjamin should help, and free agent signees Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant are reliable enough, but the group probably won’t strike fear into many cornerbacks’ hearts. Although Newton should still post solid numbers, his overhauled receiving corps limits his chances at a breakout year.

Ultimately, despite the fact that he was a No. 1 pick, Newton looks more likely to be rewarded with a contract extension in the Kapernick/Dalton mold rather than signing a Cutler/Romo-esque deal. I expect Newton to land a little more guaranteed money than Kaepernick or Dalton did, in part because the Panthers’ lack of cap flexibility may encourage the team to include a larger signing bonus with smaller first- and second-year salaries. To this point though, Newton hasn’t shown quite enough to be considered among the league’s elite signal-callers, particularly when so much of his value hinges on his running ability. Of course, one could argue that Cutler and Romo shouldn’t be grouped with the NFL’s elite QBs either, which is a fair point. But based on the way the tide seems to have shifted following Kaepernick’s and Dalton’s signings, it could be an uphill battle for Newton to avoid agreeing to a contract with similar parameters.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Jim Harbaugh

August 3rd, 2014 at 11:14am CST by Rory Parks

The 49ers, a team with an eminently talented roster and legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, find themselves in a fairly enviable position heading into the 2014 campaign. They are not, however, worry-free. There is the drama surrounding Aldon Smith, a suddenly fragile collection of running backs, and then there is head coach Jim Harbaugh‘s uncertain contract situation.

The 49ers made an extension offer to Harbaugh early last month, but Harbaugh did not immediately respond to it and contract talks reached an impasse shortly thereafter. As we learned earlier this week, the parties ultimately decided to table those talks until after the 2014 season. Harbaugh’s contract does run through 2015, but there are some sources who believe that, if a new deal is not consummated next offseason, the team will either trade Harbaugh or will simply allow his contract to expire.

Harbaugh has all the leverage in these negotiations (depending, to some extent, on the team’s performance in 2014). Over the course of his collegiate and professional coaching career, he has proven himself as someone who can quickly establish a strong foundation and a winning culture. If his contract is not renewed before the end of the 2015 season, Harbaugh will be besieged with lucrative offers from one of a handful of teams that will inevitably be looking for a new head coach at that point. If he is traded, the acquiring team will also be quick to give him a handsome deal (remember, the Browns reportedly tried to trade for him in January of this year). And, if the 49ers bring home the Lombardi Trophy this season after coming tantalizingly close to it in Harbaugh’s first three seasons with San Francisco, CEO Jed York might just hand him a blank check.

While Harbaugh has said all the right things regarding his relationship with the 49ers front office and his focus on the upcoming season, it is not easy to forget reports of the alleged tension between the head coach and the San Francisco brass. While the parties would almost certainly set aside any negative feelings they may harbor on a personal level if the team’s on-field success continues, that tension may create a bit of an obstacle when contract talks begin anew.

Although it is somewhat difficult to predict what teams will want to trade assets for a new head coach after the upcoming season, and even more difficult to predict which clubs will be in the market for a new head man following the 2015 season, there is no question that Harbaugh’s next contract–whether it is with the 49ers or someone else–will pay him a salary that rivals or surpasses those of the highest-paid coaches in the league. Sean Payton of the Saints currently tops the list with an $8MM annual salary, and the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, and the Ravens’ John Harbaugh, Jim’s older brother, are not far behind.

But for a team searching for an established coach with a proven track record of quick success–Harbaugh took over a 49ers team that went 6-10 in 2010, guided them to a 13-3 record in 2011, and has compiled a 36-11-1 record over three seasons–that price tag will be worth it. And if Harbaugh delivers a sixth Super Bowl title to San Fransisco, the 49ers will really have no choice but to match or beat whatever offers he gets and to decline whatever trade offers come their way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Mike Iupati

July 20th, 2014 at 4:42pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The 49ers have been forced to pick their battles when it comes to handing out fresh contracts — while they have yet to pony up new money for Vernon Davis or Alex Boone, San Francisco has extended both Colin Kaepernick and Joe Staley, and seem likely to do the same for Michael Crabtree (whom PFR’s Luke Adams examined as an extension candidate last week). Guard Mike Iupati appears to be on the outside looking in when it comes to a new deal; his contract, which is set to pay him a base salary of $2.97MM, expires after 2014, and it’s unlikely he will return to the Bay Area.

Offensive guard isn’t typically a highly-valued position, even when the player in question is as talented as Iupati. As Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, only eight guards have been selected in the first round of the draft since 2000. Additionally, the 49ers have already heavily invested along the offensive line, handing both Staley and right tackle Anthony Davis new contracts over the past 18 months, so the team, with only about $5MM in cap space with which to work, might be wary about pouring more money into its front five.

Additionally, San Francisco has set itself up well in the event that Iupati does leave via free agency. In fact, the team held “behind-closed-doors conversations” last season regarding its options if Iupati leaves, according to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. In May, with their seemingly endless supply of draft picks, the 49ers added viable guard replacements in the third round. Pick No. 70 Marcus Martin was viewed as one of the top centers available in the draft, but if Daniel Kilgore cements that position for San Francisco, Martin could conceivably be shifted to guard. Clemson product Brandon Thomas, picked 30 spots after Martin, is a natural guard, but will miss the upcoming season after tearing his ACL during predraft workouts. He’ll be ready for the 2015 opener, however, and his presence could allow San Francisco to let Iupati walk.

In the likely event that the Iupati departs the 49ers, he will draw plenty of interest around the league. After being selected with the 17th pick in 2010, the 27-year-old Iupati has started 60 out of a possible 64 games. He was selected to the Pro Bowl in both 2012 and 2013, and was named an All-Pro in 2012. Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required) have fluctuated on Iupati: During his first three seasons, Iupati never ranked lower than 13th among guards, and topped out at 5th overall in 2012. Last season, however, Iupati fell all the way to 35th at his position, largely due to his subpar pass blocking grade.

2013’s poor performance aside, Iupati is in line for a hefty payday, with Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee opining that Iupati could become the highest-paid guard in the league. Working in his favor is the lack of competition among prospective free agents at his position group next offseason. The Broncos’ Orlando Franklin had a nice season as a tackle last season, and if he succeeds in his transition to guard, could be looking at large contract. The rest of the 2015 free agent guard class, however, is filled with second- and third-tier options like Jeromey Clary, Willie Colon, James Carpenter, and Lance Louis.

Currently, the highest-paid guards in the league on an average annual value basis are Carl Nicks, Logan Mankins, and Jahri Evans, who earn $9.5MM, $8.5MM, and $8.1MM, respectively. Nicks also received the largest guarantee at $25MM, good for an guarantee per year of $5MM; 52.6% of his contract was guaranteed. After those three players, the total values and guarantees fall quickly into a second tier, Andy Levitre, Ben Grubbs, and Josh Sitton all earning between $6.5-8MM per season.

Iupati’s new deal will almost certainly fall into the first tier of guards. After his declining level of play in 2013, a lot hinges on his 2014 performance. With a solid season, I could see him topping Nicks’ contract, and perhaps even cracking the $10MM per season barrier. He could be looking at a guarantee in the neighborhood of $26-28MM. It’s a lot of money for a non-premier position, but I think Iupati is well-regarded enough around the league that a bidding war could ensue. Even with a lackluster season, Iupati should still match Evans’ $8.1MM average salary.

An extension with the 49ers can’t be completely ignored. Perhaps Iupati wants to stay in San Francisco, where he plays on perhaps the league’s best offensive line. The Niners’ coaching staff and front office are solid, and the team is expected to remain competitive for some time. If that means enough to Iupati, maybe he would take a discount to stay in San Francisco. But the more likely scenario entails him leaving the Bay Area, and seeking the highest contract for his services.

Extension Candidate: Michael Crabtree

July 17th, 2014 at 1:17pm CST by Luke Adams

While several players will likely sign extensions before hitting free agency in March, the current crop of wide receivers eligible to be unrestricted free agents in 2015 is impressive. Demaryius Thomas of the Broncos, Dez Bryant of the Cowboys, and pair of Packers wideouts – Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb – lead a talented group of pass catchers who will certainly cash in if and when they reach the open market.

One of the most intriguing names in the group is Michael Crabtree of the 49ers. Richard Sherman‘s arch-nemesis underwent surgery in the spring of 2013 to repair a torn Achilles tendon, and the injury ultimately sidelined Crabtree for a sizable chunk of the regular season — he didn’t return to the field until December.

In 2012, Crabtree enjoyed a breakout season catching balls from Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, establishing new career highs in receptions (85), receiving yards (1,105), and touchdowns (9). He was just as dynamic in the postseason, compiling 285 yards and three touchdowns through the air and helping San Francisco reach the Super Bowl, where he nearly hauled in a game-winning touchdown on the team’s final drive.

Had he continued to build on 2012’s success last season, Crabtree would be eyeing a contract extension that places him among the NFL’s highest-paid receivers, and would be challenging Thomas and Bryant to earn the largest contract among in the free agent wideout class of 2015. As is, the Texas Tech product may still be seeking such a deal, but his lost 2013 season clouds his value a little.

There’s no doubt that Crabtree, who turns 27 in December, has proven to be a talented and dangerous downfield threat, and is an important part of a 49ers offense whose passing game often struggled last year when he was sidelined. As Crabtree enters a contract year, the club should be interested in working out a new deal to ensure he remains in San Francisco catching balls from Kaepernick for years to come. But 2012 was the first and only season in which it all really came together for the former 10th overall pick, so the modest overall receiving numbers on his career résumé could hurt his leverage in contract negotiations.

A look at other contracts on the Niners’ books suggest that Crabtree could run into further roadblocks in negotiations. Vernon Davis and Alex Boone are among the players who have already taken a more active stance in pursuing new contracts this year, having skipped the club’s spring workouts and minicamp. As such, addressing those potential extensions may be a priority for the 49ers before they get around to entering serious discussions with Crabtree.

Additionally, the new deal signed by Kaepernick earlier this offseason was a fairly team-friendly one, with only about $13MM of the contract’s total $114MM value guaranteed at the time of its signing. While the structure of that extension may not have an impact on signings around the league, the Niners will have it in their back pocket when they negotiate extensions with other players, able to point out that the team’s leader was willing to make something of a sacrifice on his new contract.

While these factors will all come into play, none of them are significant enough to diminish Crabtree’s value significantly. The largest deals signed by receivers this offseason – Eric Decker‘s $7.25MM per year contract ($15MM guaranteed) and DeSean Jackson‘s $8MM per year deal ($16MM guaranteed) – should be a floor for Crabtree, barring another major injury or a disappointing 2014 season. The Niners pass-catcher may not find himself among the top five highest-paid wideouts in 2015 and beyond, but something in the neighborhood of Greg Jennings‘ current deal ($9MM annually, $17.8MM guaranteed) could make sense, and there’s certainly potential for something even bigger.

Ultimately, considering the club has other contracts to address and Crabtree is coming off an injury-shortened 2013 campaign, I’d expect the Niners to take their time negotiating an extension, unless they can lock up the wideout at a bargain price this summer. A full, healthy 2014 season for Crabtree would go a long way toward re-establishing his value, and could make the club even more confident to invest in him in the new year, either via a long-term extension or the franchise tag.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Justin Tucker

July 8th, 2014 at 11:47am CST by Luke Adams

Landing a kicker may be an afterthought when you’re putting together a fantasy football team, but it’s far from that for most clubs around the NFL. Recent contracts at the position have shown that locking up a reliable kicker for several years is a priority for NFL squads — within the last year alone, Sebastian Janikowski re-upped with the Raiders for nearly $3.8MM per year, with $8MM in guaranteed money, and Robbie Gould and Dan Bailey both landed guarantees of nearly $5MM with their respective teams.

Those figures may not seem significant when compared to some positions on the field, but just ask 2014’s crop of free agent running backs how good those guarantees look. No one in this year’s class of free agent backs even matched Gould’s and Bailey’s $4.9MM, let alone Janikowski’s $8MM.

The recent string of lucrative contracts for kickers bodes well for Justin Tucker of the Ravens, whose deal the club is reportedly trying to extend. As Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com writes today, a contract extension for Tucker seems to be in the best interests of both the team and the player. The Ravens would secure one of the league’s most reliable kickers, who led the NFL in field goals made (38) in 2013. And Tucker would receive a little more financial security after playing for the minimum salary for his first few years in the league.

While the Ravens have a few extension candidates on the roster, including wide receiver Torrey Smith and cornerback Jimmy Smith, Hensley views Tucker as the player most likely to receive a new deal before the coming season. Baltimore could put off an extension for another year and retain the kicker at an affordable rate when he hits restricted free agency in 2015, but ensuring he’s under contract for several years beyond that seems to be a priority for the team.

During his two years with the Ravens, Tucker has missed just six kicks, connecting on 68 of 74 field goal attempts (91.9%), as well as all 68 of his extra-point tries. He has also shown a knack for connecting on long kicks, missing just one of his 11 career attempts from 50+ yards and memorably making a game-winning 61-yarder in a Monday Night Football game last year against the Lions. At age 24, the former Texas Longhorn appears poised to remain among the league’s elite kickers for years to come, meaning his next contract should reflect that.

As OverTheCap.com’s data shows, the going rate for top NFL kickers is $3MM+ per year, with 10 players currently averaging above that threshold — Janikowski’s $3.775MM annual value is tops at the position. Given his 91.9% success rate on field goals so far, Tucker could make the case that his annual salary ought to rival the top earners at his position, including Janikowski (79.9% career rate), Gould (86.0%), and Josh Scobee (81.1%).

Of course, with just 74 career FG attempts, Tucker’s track record isn’t exactly extensive, so the Ravens could point to that small sample size and argue that he doesn’t quite deserve to be the league’s highest-paid kicker, but that they’re willing to put him among the league’s seven or eight highest-paid. To that end, Bailey’s recent extension with the Cowboys could provide a logical point of comparison.

Like Tucker, Bailey doesn’t have an incredibly lengthy track record of NFL success, but the Cowboys kicker has converted 89 of 98 field goal attempts (90.8%) early in his career and was just 25 when he inked his extension. While no other kicker is currently locked up beyond the 2017 season, Bailey’s deal keeps him under team control through 2020, at a rate of $3.214MM annually, with nearly $5MM in guaranteed money.

I think the Ravens would be amenable to a similar deal for Tucker, though perhaps the Baltimore kicker would prefer something shorter-term, or with a larger guarantee — Bailey’s $4.9MM in guaranteed money is tied for second most among kickers, but the extra years on the pact mean that only 21.8% of his total salary is guaranteed, which doesn’t compare favorably to other top players at the position.

With Tucker eligible for restricted, rather than unrestricted, free agency at year’s end, there isn’t quite as much urgency for the Ravens to complete a deal soon, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team announced an extension for its kicker before the 2014 season begins. In that event, I’d expect an annual salary approaching $3.5MM — the length of the deal and the size of the guarantee will be the real points of contention that the two sides figure to haggle over in the coming weeks, and perhaps longer than that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Julius Thomas

July 3rd, 2014 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

The decision made yesterday by arbitrator Stephen Burbank to rule in favor of the Saints on Jimmy Graham‘s positional dispute wasn’t good news for Graham. However, it may not have been bad news for tight ends in general. Had Burbank decided to consider Graham a wide receiver, teams would have made a greater effort going forward not to split out their own tight ends, which would potentially limit the pass-catching numbers for those players, who would have a harder time exploiting certain matchups.

Additionally, now that Graham is officially viewed as a tight end, he’s poised to set a new high watermark for salary at the position. The Saints are reportedly willing to make Graham the league’s highest-paid player at the position, surpassing Rob Gronkowski‘s $9MM annual value. The creation of a new top tier for salary at the position should bode well when other tight ends begin to negotiate new contracts, and will only help increase the figures for future franchise and transition tags.

All of this is to say that a player like Julius Thomas, whose contract is set to expire at the end of the 2014 season, shouldn’t be discouraged by the Graham verdict. A franchise tag at wide receiver likely won’t be in Thomas’ future, but the franchise tag for tight ends should be on the rise next year, and if Graham cracks $10MM per year on a long-term deal with the Saints, Thomas will have a stronger case to exceed $7MM on a pact of his own.

An extension for Thomas is indeed on Denver’s to-do list, with GM John Elway confirming to Mike Klis of the Denver Post last month that the Broncos have opened extension talks with their tight end. In Klis’ view, a $7MM per year average may be the target for former fourth-round pick, who turned 26 last week.

When considering Thomas’ value, there are a handful of factors to take into consideration. Coming into the 2013 season, Thomas had just one reception on his résumé for his first two years in the NFL, and had battled ankle troubles in 2012. However, he broke out in a big way in ’13, catching 65 balls for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite ceding plenty of targets with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker.

Thomas is young, athletic, and a gifted pass-catcher — the fact that he played only one year of college ball at Portland State could actually be a positive for the Broncos, since it suggests he still has plenty of room to continue to develop and improve following his breakout season. The tight end recently told Ross Jones of Fox Sports that he anticipates the team finding new, creative ways to use him in 2014, as he becomes more comfortable and confident in the offense.

“I do think I’m still scratching the surface,” Thomas said. “I’ve had guys who have told me that playing football around year four and year five, it starts to click and then it all starts to make sense of what you’re doing. That’s typical of a normal guy who has been playing forever. I still think I have so far to go. I need to keep getting repetitions and keep getting comfortable with things.”

Assuming Denver also believes Thomas is “scratching the surface” of his full potential, it makes sense that the team would attempt to lock him up before the upcoming season, before his value increases even further. Still, when it comes to Thomas’ next contract, the club could have some of the same concerns that exist in negotiations with wideout Demaryius Thomas. Peyton Manning‘s presence in Denver has helped pad stats for all the team’s pass-catchers, and the presence of Welker, free agent signee Emmanuel Sanders, and rookie Cody Latimer will ensure that no one receiver is necessarily indispensable to the team’s passing attack. Additionally, with Manning unlikely to continue his career for more than another two or three years, it’s worth considering who will be throwing the balls caught by the pair of Thomases if Denver signs both players to lucrative long-term deals.

If the Broncos think Thomas is the real deal though, there’s no reason not to attempt to secure him on a multiyear contract this summer. A deal like the one agreed upon between Dennis Pitta and the Ravens this offseason could make some sense — Pitta only received an average annual value of $6.4MM over five years, but $16MM of that $32MM deal is fully guaranteed. I’d guess the Broncos are more likely to push for a different sort of structure, one with a higher annual salary and a more modest guarantee. In that scenario, a five-year deal for Thomas could fall in the $35-40MM range, but with a guarantee in the neighborhood of $10-13MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Jermaine Gresham

June 25th, 2014 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

A former first-round pick, Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham has earned spots in two Pro Bowls during the first four years of his NFL career, accumulating 218 total receptions for 2,262 yards and 19 touchdowns in 59 career overall contests. In many instances, those kind of impressive results would have the player’s team working hard to ensure he remains under contract beyond the 2014 season, the final year of his rookie deal.

In Cincinnati though, the Bengals’ interest in a long-term commitment to Gresham remains unclear. The team has a pair of more pressing extension candidates to worry about this summer, with quarterback Andy Dalton and standout linebacker Vontaze Burfict both eligible for new deals. Still, when head coach Marvin Lewis spoke about a Dalton extension on SiriusXM NFL Radio earlier this month, he pointed out that getting something done with the signal-caller would allow the club to focus on locking up other players — although he didn’t mention Gresham by name, Lewis identified “our tight end” as one of those extension candidates.

Of course, while Lewis has some input on roster decisions, it’ll be the front office, led by general manager Mike Brown, that ultimately has the final say on whether Gresham remains in Cincinnati for the long term. And there have been a few signals that extending the tight end’s contract may not be in the club’s plans. For one, just three years after selecting Gresham 21st overall in the draft, the Bengals picked a tight end again at No. 21 a year ago, snatching up Tyler Eifert out of Notre Dame. Eifert didn’t immediately usurp Gresham as the No. 1 option at the position, but the Bengals took advantage of his presence by implementing a two-tight-end offense, and the rookie certainly cut into Gresham’s targets. After seeing 92 passes thrown his way in 2012, Gresham was targeted just 63 times last season, with Eifert earning 56 targets of his own.

While the Bengals’ decision to draft Eifert a year ago may have been largely a product of the team wanting to run an offense with two pass-catching tight ends, Cincinnati also had reason to want an insurance policy for Gresham. Even though he was coming off consecutive Pro Bowl seasons, Gresham actually ranked dead last among 62 qualified tight ends in ’12, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required), which docked him for his poor run blocking and an inability to avoid penalties. In both 2012 and 2013, no other tight end was called for more penalties than Gresham, who also tied for the most fumbles (five) among tight ends during those two seasons.

Just as one can’t overlook Gresham’s propensity to make mistakes though, his playmaking ability shouldn’t be underrated — the 26-year-old typically ranks among the tight end leaders when it comes to yards after catch and missed tackles. After Cincinnati lost Andrew Hawkins in free agency this offseason, the team will be relying more than ever on its tight ends to help carry the receiving load alongside A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, so even with Dalton potentially looking Eifert’s way more often, Gresham could be primed for a productive contract year.

Ultimately, I think the Bengals will wait to open extension talks with Gresham, whose place on the roster going forward looks significantly more precarious than it did a year ago. As ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey observed recently in a mailbag, Gresham’s relationship with fans in Cincinnati has been rocky, and the young tight end may ultimately command more on the open market than the Bengals are willing to pay. I do expect the team to make some effort to re-up Gresham before he reaches unrestricted free agency, but Dalton and Burfict will be the priorities, and if Eifert continues to emerge in his second year, there won’t be as much urgency for the Bengals to negotiate with Gresham.

If and when the two sides do engage in contract discussions, Brandon Pettigrew‘s new contract with the Lions may serve as a logical point of comparison. Pettigrew’s career per-year averages of about 57 receptions and 566 receiving yards are essentially identical to Gresham’s (55 and 566), and Pettigrew will also cede targets to a young first-round tight end (Eric Ebron) going forward. The Lions locked up Pettigrew this spring for four years and $16MM, with $5.2MM in guaranteed money. If the Bengals can get Gresham for a little cheaper than that, I think the club will be interested in working out an extension. If Gresham is aiming to top Pettigrew’s deal, he’s more likely to do it on the open market than in Cincinnati.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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