Extension Candidate News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: C.J. Mosley

July 1st, 2018 at 10:37am CST by Rory Parks

Ravens linebacker C.J. Mosley, unlike some of his fellow 2014 first-round draftees eyeing a new deal, has not held out of spring practices and has no intentions of holding out of training camp. He has previously indicated that he wants to be a Raven for life and to be remembered as the second-greatest linebacker in team history (behind Ray Lewis, who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in August).

Although it is difficult to fault any player in today’s NFL for holding out in an effort to land a mega payday, Mosley’s decision to remain with the team regardless of his contract situation is emblematic of the type of leadership that makes him such a prized commodity in Baltimore. His play, of course, also speaks volumes. The Alabama product has been named to three Pro Bowls in his four-year career and has earned a reputation as something of a playmaker, as he has posted eight interceptions and eight sacks during that timeframe. Those eight interceptions rank second among linebackers over the past four years (behind Luke Kuechly‘s nine), and Mosley ranks fifth in tackles (489) and fifth in solo tackles (313) among all defensive players from 2014-17.

Perhaps just as importantly, he has been durable, having missed only two games to date. On the other hand, he can struggle in pass coverage, and while he is a very good all-around player, he is not a generational talent that makes a lucrative extension an easy call for the Ravens.

The Texans’ Benardrick McKinney recently landed a five-year, $50MM deal (with $21MM guaranteed), and the Vikings gave Eric Kendricks a similar deal in April. Mosley has a case to top both of those players, neither of whom have been selected to a Pro Bowl, and it would not be far-fetched to see him approaching or besting Kuechly’s five-year, $61MM ($27MM guaranteed) pact, which currently paces the market for inside linebackers.

But the Ravens do have a history of drafting quality ILBs, and given that Mosley is generally not the kind of game-changing player that Kuechly is, one would think Baltimore could move on and use that money elsewhere. But the Ravens typically take care of their homegrown talent, and considering Mosley’s abilities and leadership qualities, the guess here is that he and the team will come to terms on an extension that will give him around $25MM in guarantees and that averages around $11MM per year.

Extension Candidate: Anthony Barr

June 27th, 2018 at 8:36pm CST by Ben Levine

Over the past two offseasons, the Vikings have signed a number of their defensive players to extensions: cornerback Xavier Rhodes, defensive end Everson Griffen, defensive tackle Linval Joseph, and (most recently) defensive end Danielle Hunter. That leaves linebacker Anthony Barr as the one defender who’s yet to sign a new deal.

Barr, a 2014 first-round pick, is heading into his fifth-year option season, and he’ll earn a $12.3MM base salary. Plenty of teams would line up to sign the three-time Pro Bowler should he hit free agency next year, especially if he has another season like he did in 2017. The 26-year-old finished the year having compiled a career-high 75 tackles to go along with one sack and six passes defended.

It sounds like the Vikings are going to now shift their focus to locking up Barr (and wideout Stefon Diggs), with general manager Rick Spielman indicating today that he wants to retain their entire core. While recent reports had hinted that contract negotiations were progressing, Barr didn’t sound as optimistic earlier this week. The linebacker said an extension was “more about feeling valued and respected than the actual dollar amount.” He also noted that while he wants “to be there long term… It’s not my decision; it’s on them, and I would like to get it.” Barr had already skipped out on non-mandatory workouts, perhaps showcasing his unhappiness with the situation.

While Barr is surely frustrated with the fact that his teammates have received lucrative extensions, he’s probably also aggravated at the team’s disappearing cap space. Ben Goessling of the Star Tribune estimates that the Vikings will have around $27MM in cap space in 2019. While that’s still enough space to sign Barr, they might have a tough time signing him if he’s looking to become one of the highest-paid linebackers. While it’s unlikely that he’ll receive a deal that’s more than the $12MM annual salary he’s set to earn this year, an $11MM annual salary would still place him in the top-5 among 4.3 outside linebackers. Considering the team’s cap constraints, this would likely be the most money they’d be willing to offer.

Fortunately for the Vikings, their defense will be fine with or without Barr. In fact, their decision to hold off on the linebacker’s extension could be an indication of his standing within the organization. While a deal is still expected to get done, it wouldn’t be overly surprising if Barr ends up hitting free agency next summer.

Extension Candidate: Taylor Lewan

June 26th, 2018 at 3:49pm CST by Zachary Links

This year, Taylor Lewan was one of several 2014 first-round picks to skip mandatory June workouts. Titans GM Jon Robinson has indicated that the two sides are discussing a new deal, but we haven’t heard much lately as the tackle gets set to enter his fifth-year option season.

For now, Lewan is set to earn $9.341MM and is scheduled to reach free agency in 2019. After that, the Titans have the option of using the franchise tag on him, but that would be a costly move, as CBSSports.com’s Joel Corry recently noted.

Next year’s franchise tag for offensive linemen could be worth nearly $15MM. When factoring in the 20% increase of a second franchise tag, controlling Lewan in 2020 could cost somewhere between $17.5MM and $18MM. Technically, the Titans can kick the can down the road for a while, but it would cost them roughly $32.5MM in the interim. Then, after that, Lewan would hold all the cards as a third straight tag would be completely untenable.

So, all parties involved would like to hammer out a long-term deal this offseason. Unfortunately for the Titans, Lewan’s camp is likely to use Nate Solder’s four-year, $62MM contract ($34.8MM guaranteed) with the Giants as a guiding point in talks. It’s not apples-to-apples since Solder scored his deal on the open market, but Lewan is three years younger and arguably performed better than Solder in 2017.

The Titans aren’t necessarily eager to reset the tackle market here – particularly with Marcus Mariota scheduled for free agency after the 2019 season – but it may be their only choice given the dearth of quality tackles in the NFL. A multi-year extension for Lewan is sure to be costly, but it beats paying big bucks for less appealing free agent tackles, as many teams have been forced to do in recent years.

Extension Candidate: Akiem Hicks

July 4th, 2017 at 8:03pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

As a quality player entering a contract year, Bears lineman Akiem Hicks has a realistic chance of ending up as one of the richest defenders in next winter’s free agent class. While there’s no indication that the Bears have prioritized an extension for Hicks, it’s fair to suggest that an ideal scenario for general manager Ryan Pace would include keeping the five-year veteran in the fold for the long haul.

In March 2016, Hicks’ first trip to free agency, Pace lured him from New England on a two-year, $10MM deal. Hicks entered the NFL in 2012 as a third-round pick of the Saints, who employed Pace at the time. Three years later, New Orleans deemed Hicks expendable, sending him to the Patriots for tight end Michael Hoomanawanui. That proved to be yet another shrewd move by the Pats, with whom Hicks fared well across 13 games in 2015 before departing for a richer payday.

Pace made an astute decision of his own when he signed Hicks, as the 318-pounder thrived last year while taking on more responsibility than he had in either New Orleans or New England. Hicks tied a career high with 16 starts and established new personal bests in snaps (930, which led all Bears defensive linemen), tackles (54), sacks (seven) and forced fumbles (two). Those are impressive traditional numbers, and Hicks also fared well in terms of advanced metrics, as Pro Football Focus ranked his performance a stellar 15th among 127 qualified interior D-linemen last season.

Now, eight months from potentially becoming a free agent again, Hicks is in the market for a new representative, and he seems cognizant that he’s on the verge of a raise.

“I am a free agent that is almost a free agent,” Hicks said last month. “You get it?”

Preventing an unsigned Hicks from leaving Chicago via the franchise tag next winter would cost the club a lofty amount, somewhere in the $17MM neighborhood. With that in mind, when the defensive end hires an agent, it would behoove Pace to reach out to his representative regarding an extension. The question is: What would be a fair offer for the 27-year-old Hicks, who went from a solid lineman from 2012-15, when he combined for 33 starts and 9.5 sacks, to a borderline excellent one last season? Among PFF’s other top 15 interior linemen from last year, several have recently landed contracts, including Calais Campbell (No. 2), Kawann Short (No. 3), Fletcher Cox (No. 5), Damon Harrison (No. 7), Mike Daniels (No. 9) and Malik Jackson (No. 12). Here’s a quick rundown of those deals:

Campbell: Four years, $60MM, including $30MM guaranteed (March 2017)
Short: Five years, $80MM, including $35MM guaranteed (April 2017)
Cox: Six years, $103MM, including $63MM guaranteed (June 2016)
Harrison: Five years, $46.25MM, including $24MM guaranteed (March 2016)
Daniels: Four years, $42MM, including $12MM guaranteed (December 2015)
Jackson: Six years, $90MM, including $42MM guaranteed (March 2016)

At around $10MM per year over a handful of seasons, the Harrison and Daniels contracts look like more reasonable benchmarks than the others for Hicks, though the guaranteed money would likely have to approach Harrison’s total. It’s important to note that the salary cap has risen since those two signed, and it’s only going to continue going up. Both the NFL’s ever-increasing cap and another terrific season would enable Hicks to further make his case for something closer to the pact Campbell landed earlier this offseason. So, having already received one decent-sized payday in his career, it’s possible Hicks will bet on himself this year, go without an extension and try to play his way to Campbell-type money (if not more) by next winter.

Extension Candidate: Xavier Rhodes

July 2nd, 2017 at 9:46am CST by Rory Parks

The Vikings’ defense finished 2016 ninth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), third in yards allowed per game, and sixth in points allowed per game. In short, Minnesota boasted a pretty strong defense, and there is a lot of credit to go around for that performance.

Cornerback Xavier Rhodes deserves a great deal of that credit. Rhodes, whom the Vikings selected in the first round of the 2013 draft, turned in the best season of his career in 2016, which earned him his first Pro Bowl nod. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics were fairly kind to his overall effort, as Rhodes graded out as the 29th-best corner in the league out of 111 qualified players, but PFF really loved his performance against the run, where he graded as the top CB in football. Whatever issues he had in coverage he helped to make up for with his five interceptions, one of which he returned 100 yards for a score.

Minnesota picked up Rhodes’ fifth-year option last year, so he is currently under contract through 2017, and he is set to earn a tidy $8.026MM this season. But that doesn’t mean Rhodes wouldn’t be open to a long-term deal, and the Vikings do have a history of signing key players to extensions during contract years. Indeed, we heard back in February that the team was expected to begin negotiating a new contract with Rhodes, and while there have been no public reports of such negotiations, it does not appear that either side has put a deadline on contract talks. As such, it could be that a deal gets hammered out at some point during the season.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry says Desmond Trufant‘s recent extension with the Falcons could serve as a barometer for Rhodes’ negotiations with Minnesota. Trufant, whose total contract value is currently the third-highest in the league among cornerbacks — and who was drafted three picks ahead of Rhodes — pulled down a five-year, $68.75MM deal from Atlanta, including $41.53MM in guaranteed money. In addition to being just about the same age, Trufant and Rhodes are similarly talented players, both solid in coverage and stout against the run, so it would not be a surprise to see Rhodes land a contract that matches or exceeds Trufant’s pact.

Since he became a full-time starter in 2014, Rhodes has also been pretty durable. He started all 16 regular-season contests in 2014 and 2015, and after missing the first two weeks of 2016 with a knee injury, he started and finished the remaining 14 games. The Vikings have about $13.5MM in cap space at the moment (under the Rule of 51), so theoretically they could even front-load a Rhodes extension to give themselves some wiggle room down the road. In any event, expect to see Rhodes and fellow Pro Bowler Harrison Smith sharing Minnesota’s defensive backfield for the next few years.

Extension Candidate: Kam Chancellor

May 29th, 2017 at 4:32pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Major changes could soon be on the way for Seattle’s star-studded secondary, a staple during the team’s run of five straight double-digit win seasons and an integral part of its 13-3, Super Bowl-winning 2013 campaign.

Cornerback Richard Sherman and the safety tandem of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor have consistently been the best players in Seattle’s famed Legion of Boom defensive backfield throughout the club’s half-decade of excellence, but the futures of each have either come into question recently or will over the next year. Sherman has been the subject of trade rumors of late and is reportedly at the center of a rift with key members of the organization; Thomas considered retirement after a broken tibia ended his season last December; and Chancellor is scheduled to become a free agent in a little under 10 months.

With both Sherman and Thomas signed through 2018, determining what to do with Chancellor will be general manager John Schneider‘s most pressing matter leading up to next offseason. The strong safety is set to wrap up a four-year, $28MM contract – a deal that led to earlier disharmony between him and the Seahawks. Chancellor, seeking a raise back in 2015, held out through the summer and didn’t return to the team until Week 3 of the season. That came after the Seahawks refused to upgrade Chancellor’s contract and even went so far as to dock him upward of $1MM for the time he missed.

Whatever ill will may have existed between the two sides faded, though, as Chancellor actually expressed happiness with his situation last June. Chancellor then went on to rack up 85 tackles and two interceptions over 12 games in an injury-shortened season, and though he went without a Pro Bowl nod for the first time since 2012, he did rank as Pro Football Focus’ third-best safety among 90 qualifiers. Since then, head coach Pete Carroll has suggested that the Seahawks would like to extend Chancellor, and Schneider seemed to imply the same in an interview with KJR-AM in Seattle earlier this month.

“We have several guys that we will get to,” said Schneider (via the Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta). “We want to be able to take care of our team and he’s obviously a huge part of that.”

If the two sides do discuss an extension, the four-time Pro Bowler and two-time second-team All-Pro will seek elite money relative to his position. Chancellor, who already paces all strong safeties in cap hit (~$8.04MM) and base salary ($6.8MM), saw a similarly aged star at his position – the Dolphins’ Reshad Jones – cash in earlier this offseason. Jones, despite having missed 10 games in 2016, landed a four-year, $48MM extension with just under $20MM fully guaranteed in March.

Both Chancellor and Jones were fifth-round picks in the 2010 draft, and they’ve turned into top-caliber defensive backs with similar traditional numbers since becoming starters as NFL sophomores. Dating back to 2011, Chancellor has started in all 84 appearances, averaged 6.87 tackles per game, and totaled 12 interceptions and seven forced fumbles. Jones has started in all 78 outings over the same span, piling up fewer tackles (5.54 per game) but notching more picks (15) and returning three for touchdowns. The Dolphin also has a clear edge in sacks (eight to one), but he has forced five fewer fumbles (three).

Whether Chancellor is better than Jones is up for debate. It’s inarguable, though, that Chancellor is a premier safety who has a case for a Jones-type payday. However, forking over that type of cash to a player on the cusp of his 30s – one who hasn’t played a full season since 2013 – might give the Seahawks pause. With Sherman and Thomas also nearing their 30s and potentially their own trips to the open market, Schneider is going to have to decide soon which (if any) to commit to for the long haul. It seems unrealistic to expect all three to remain in Seattle on huge contracts as they continue to age, which means the clock is likely ticking on the team’s iconic secondary.

Extension Candidate: Brandon Marshall

May 22nd, 2016 at 3:28pm CST by Sam Robinson

Even if the Broncos can come to an agreement with Von Miller on a massive multi-year deal, the team could see some major changes on defense after 2016.

Four members of the Super Bowl champions’ historically elite unit will hit the open market after this season, and even though the Broncos will have more breathing room in 2017 than they have in recent years, more tough choices are coming.

Those impending decisions include talents like DeMarcus Ware, Darian Stewart and Sylvester Williams. However, Denver’s top defensive priority will likely be Brandon Marshall.

Denver hasn’t invested much at the inside linebacker position as of late, but Marshall has been one of the league’s best non-rush linebackers since joining the Broncos’ starting lineup in 2014. The 26-year-old ‘backer — who has yet to sign his RFA tender — presents an interesting case for long-term employment despite Denver’s ILB stinginess.

The Broncos didn’t try very hard to retain Danny Trevathan this offseason, as they had higher-priority players to address. In previous years, the Broncos allowed Wesley Woodyard and Nate Irving to join up with AFC South teams on mid-level deals rather than retain them. Trevathan scored a four-year, $24.5MM deal to place him in the upper echelon of inside linebacker deals in terms of AAV. With another strong season and with the salary cap set to rise, Marshall seems likely to surpass that.

Trevathan serves as a good comparison for Marshall since they functioned in similar capacities for the Broncos last season and entered the league in 2012 as Day 3 picks. One key difference between the two players, however, is that Marshall split time between the Jaguars’ 53-man roster and taxi squad in his rookie year. That vacillation delayed his service-time clock, meaning the Broncos avoided both of their starting inside linebackers becoming UFAs in the same year.

Trevathan’s free agency arrived when Miller, Brock Osweiler, Malik Jackson and Derek Wolfe were set to hit the market. Denver’s next set of notable expiring deals — the aforementioned defenders and Emmanuel Sanders — don’t present quite the financial matrix that 2016’s contingent did.

The previous year’s logjam featuring Julius Thomas, Orlando Franklin and several others probably appeared more daunting as well. As of this writing, the Broncos stand to possess the NFL’s most cap space in 2017 at $66.25MM. While this number will plummet should Miller sign by July 15, Denver’s brass will likely give more consideration to keeping Marshall than they did to retaining Trevathan.

Like Trevathan, Marshall successfully relocated to the inside after undergoing offseason surgery. Denver’s shift to a 3-4 featured a smooth transition thanks in part to Marshall’s quick adjustment. Already a well-reviewed player as a 4-3 outside ‘backer in 2014, Marshall showed no ill-effects from his foot surgery. In 2015, Marshall racked up 101 tackles and nine stops behind the line of scrimmage, tying him for the team lead with Miller and Wolfe.

While we’re on the subject of comps, it should be noted that Marshall finished with 11 tackles for loss in 2014, placing him third among non-rush ‘backers that season behind Lavonte David and DeAndre Levy. Both David and Levy received top-market extensions last summer. Pro Football Focus tabbed Marshall as a top-12 non-rush linebacker in 2014 and ’15, and a repeat could put him in line for a big payday.

Marshall separated himself somewhat from Trevathan in terms of functionality last season, serving as a three-down linebacker more often. The Broncos deployed their former practice squad talent on 1,120 snaps during 16 regular-season games in 2015, with the slightly smaller Trevathan lining up on 913 in 15 contests.

While the Broncos’ successful 2011 and 2012 draft classes created a glut of UFAs that mostly defected to other teams the past two years, 2013’s draft did not go as well. That stands to provide some additional upcoming flexibility. Only Williams and Kayvon Webster remain on the team from that class, but with Marshall’s free agency being postponed a year, he serves as a de facto ’13 pick.

The Broncos stand a better chance of signing him to an extension as a result.

Denver hasn’t paid notable money for an inside linebacker since re-signing Joe Mays in 2012 on a three-year, $12MM deal. The Broncos benched Mays for an aging Keith Brooking midway into that season and released him before 2013, a campaign that featured XFL survivor Paris Lenon starting at middle linebacker in Super Bowl XLVIII.

The John Elway era has generated the most consistently dominant play from the Broncos in their 56-year history, but it hasn’t involved significant payouts to the linebackers who are not responsible for harassing quarterbacks.

Beyond Marshall, the team’s current landscape at inside linebacker is pretty thin. The Broncos did not draft an ILB last month and are counting on special-teamer Todd Davis to succeed Trevathan. A 2014 waiver claim, Davis logged 139 snaps last season and could profile as the Broncos’ next bargain-bin success story at this position. Needless to say, Marshall will be pivotal to stabilizing this corps.

It could cost as much as $8MM per season for the Broncos to keep their top inside linebacker.

The experience chasm between Marshall and his cohorts could enhance his leverage, should the Broncos not reach an extension before his contract expires. With a monstrous Miller payout likely coming and just $6.01MM in cap space available currently, Marshall may have to wait a bit for his payday.

Marshall’s age won’t be a big factor in his next deal; he’s set to turn 27 in September. Although he is not going to reside on the Luke Kuechly/Bobby Wagner financial tier even with another standout season, his versatility to excel as a 3-4 inside presence or on the outside in a 4-3 scheme makes a $7MM-plus deal per year (the Mychal Kendricks/Sean Lee/K.J. Wright tier) look reasonable.

Levy’s four-year, $33.7MM Lions extension could be Marshall’s target, but he may fall short of that, even if he hits free agency. However, the salary cap rose from $143MM in 2015 to $155MM in advance of the 2016 league year, with the next elevation set to aid the ensuing crop of UFAs’ cause. So, it’s not impossible he rises to the Levy level — no one exactly predicted Malik Jackson would become a $14MM-AAV player going into his contract year — but it’s merely improbable right now.

Trevathan’s $6MM-plus AAV salary probably won’t be sufficient for the Broncos to keep Marshall off the market, but Elway and Co. have excelled at convincing cogs to sign team-friendly deals as the recent in-season extensions for Wolfe and Chris Harris showed. Marshall, though, may be a bit harder to sway, especially after seeing so many of his draft-class peers become UFA-eligible before him.

Hoping for a new deal before the season, Marshall hasn’t signed his $2.55MM second-round tender. He’ll almost certainly sign soon, considering the Broncos hold the leverage with the ability to rescind the tender after June 15 and pay him 110 percent of his 2015 salary, which was $585K.

With the 29-year-old Sanders residing as a key component of the Broncos’ passing game, he looks to be the highest free agent priority, should Denver lock up Miller. But with so many expiring defenders, it might be wise to re-sign a front-seven piece that’s proven to excel in Wade Phillips‘ system.

As the Broncos transition to a new quarterback, keeping as many of their young, established starters from the best defense in team history will be paramount. Such a task will be more easily attained without a franchise-quarterback salary anchoring the payroll.

With Wolfe and Harris having already signed, Marshall meets this criteria as well as anyone.

Photos courtesy USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Josh Norman

November 14th, 2015 at 9:27pm CST by Dallas Robinson

While the contributions from quarterback Cam Newton are obvious, it’s been the Panthers defense that has carried the club to two consecutive playoff appearances and an undefeated record in 2015. That unit, which ranked third in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2013 before slipping to 15th in 2014, has rebounded to the second overall position this season. The club’s defense has been headlined by several stars in the past, from standout linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis to veteran defensive end Charles Johnson, but this year there is one star who stands head-and-shoulders above the rest: cornerback Josh Norman.

Norman, a fifth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina in 2012, was a starter for much of his rookie season before being benched late in the year, and his struggles continued during his sophomore season, during which he was active for only seven games. But after veterans Drayton Florence and Captain Munnerlyn departed prior to the 2014 season, Norman worked his way back into the starting lineup, and by year’s end, was already in the top-10 cornerback conversation.

2015, however, has witnessed an altogether dominant Norman, as he’s emerged as a shutdown corner capable of unhinging opponents’ passing-game plans. Through eight games, Norman has posted four interceptions, two of which he’s returned for touchdowns, while defensing 13 passes. Per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), he rates as the top corner in the league, recording an overall grade of 95.2 (on PFF’s new 1-100 scale).

Going game-by-game, it’s clear the Norman has disrupted the production of some of the game’s best wideouts. In week 1, Norman held Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins (now the NFL’s third-leading receiver) to just five catches for 53 yards. Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans and Indianapolis’ T.Y. Hilton saw similar struggles against Norman, posting just 3-32 and 1-15 lines, respectively. Last month, PFF’s Sam Monson penned an excellent breakdown of Norman’s play, with this amazing nugget tucked within: Through six games, Norman had allowed an opposing passer rating of just 24.1. A QB’s passer rating if he simply threw the ball into the ground every play? 39.6, 15.5 points better than throwing at Norman.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, they’ve failed to reach an extension agreement with Norman in the year-plus that he’s been eligible for such a deal. Prior to this season, Norman reportedly turned down a long-term contract that would have paid him $7MM annually, a decision that is now proving astute. He’ll now hit unrestricted free agency in March, and having earned a total of just $2.3MM via his rookie contract, he’s surely looking for a big payday.

Luckily for us, there have been several top-notch corners signed to extensions in recent years, so we have a nice crop of deals to use as comparables. Here are the five contracts that Norman and his representatives will likely use as a basis during negotiations, sorted by guaranteed money:

Source: overthecap.com

Maxwell, who, it should be noted, signed a free agent contract and not an extension, sets the floor in terms of annual value at $10.5MM, but realistically, Norman should garner much more than that. His target is surely $14MM per annum, the mark reached by Revis, Peterson, and Sherman, each of whom are considered among the top corners in the league. And given his play over the past two seasons, there is no reason Norman shouldn’t be able to secure that figure.

The guarantee is likely to be where Norman and the Panthers have some disagreement. Revis was able to get $39MM in guaranteed money, but he has played the free agent game masterfully during his career, and created a demand that Norman is unlikely to gin up. Additionally, Revis was orchestrating negotiations without the threat of the franchise tag hanging over his head, an issue Norman will likely be unable to avoid.

There’s no question in my mind that, failing an extension, the Panthers will slap Norman with the franchise tag. Last year’s cornerback figure was a tad over $13MM, so for the sake of discussion, let’s assume the 2016 number will be somewhere around $14MM. Currently, Carolina only has about $16MM in cap space for the 2016 season, but the club has several moves it can make to clear out cap room. Jared Allen ($8.5MM cap charge), Roman Harper ($4.66MM), Michael Oher ($4.5MM), and Ted Ginn Jr. ($2.35MM) are all candidates to be released during the offseason, so the Panthers can create space if they want to.

So, based on my assumption that Norman will be negotiating solely with the Panthers, and not with the other 31 clubs, it’s going to be hard for him to challenge Revis’ $39MM figure. Obviously, the $14MM (or so) franchise tag guarantee would act as a guarantee floor, so Norman will have already topped Sherman in that regard. Ultimately, I think he’ll be able pass all the corners besides Revis in terms of guarantee, so something like a five-year, $70MM deal, with $25-28MM in guarantees, makes sense.

If Norman is somehow not franchise-tagged and is able to market himself to the entire league, his contract ceiling would raise incredibly. Not only would his play speak for itself, but next year’s corner market is full of older players like Adam Jones and Sean Smith, and slot corners like Casey Hayward, so Norman wouldn’t face much in the way of market competition. Norman could break the glass ceiling of $14MM annually, and come even closer to Revis’ $39MM guarantee.

Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman has instituted a policy of not negotiating extensions in-season, so unless he changes his mind, Norman will have to wait until next year to begin talks. But assuming he maintains his health and continues to play as a shutdown corner, Norman will have the opportunity to ask for the moon — and maybe get it.

Image courtesy of USA Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Russell Okung

August 15th, 2015 at 6:48pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Seahawks haven’t been shy about locking up their own players to long-term extensions — Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner each agreed to deals within the past month, but they’re just the most recent Seattle players whom the club has committed to. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, K.J. Wright, and Doug Baldwin all reached extensions with the Seahawks (or in the case of Bennett, re-signed just days into free agency) within the past 18 months. But there’s still one key Hawk who is heading for free agency and hasn’t yet worked out a new contract — left tackle Russell Okung.

Okung, the first draft pick of the Pete Carroll/John Schneider regime, hasn’t exactly been the picture of health since entering the league out of Oklahoma State in 2010. The 27-year-old has only played in about 73% of Seattle’s games during the past five years, missing 21 out of a possible 80 contests. Just last season, Okung missed only two games, but he was plagued with injuries throughout the year, dealing with calf and chest ailments while also playing through a torn labrum.

Not only has Okung suffered through injuries, but when he has been able to take the field, his production hasn’t been great. Outside of the 2012 season, when he graded as the league’s eighth-best tackle and was named to the Pro Bowl, Okung has never even placed among the top 30 tackles in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, including last season, when he ranked just 36th (subscription required). Last year, specifically, most of Okung’s negative grade was attributed to his subpar run blocking, as he actually graded out pretty well in terms of pass-blocking.

Indeed, if there is one thing that Okung does not do, it’s give up sacks. In three years with Wilson as the club’s starting quarterback, Okung has been responsible for just four sacks. And that’s not simply a function of Wilson’s ability to move in the pocket, as Wilson has been sacked the second-most times among all QBs since entering the league. It’s Okung’s linemates who are giving up most of Wilson’s sacks, as Okung gave up just 22 total pressures in 2014, ranking 13th in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric.

So now that we’ve covered what type of player Okung is, let’s tackle another question: Can Seattle afford him? The Seahawks have done a marvelous job of keeping their Super Bowl corps together, whether by extending a player like Kam Chancellor at a below-market rate, keeping Bennett for less than he’s worth, or finding a viable starting QB in Wilson in the third round. But at a certain point, it becomes impossible to keep everyone, as evidenced by the fact that linebacker Bruce Irvin — like Okung, a former first-rounder — is widely expected to depart via free agency after the season.

As it stands now, Over the Cap projects the Seahawks to have about $14.4MM in cap space heading into the 2016 offseason (for context, that ranks as the 10th-least amount of room in the league). That number doesn’t figure to increase by that much, as there aren’t any obvious candidates for release on Seattle’s 2016 roster. One tactic could be to restructure the contracts of either Sherman or Thomas, converting some portion of their base salaries into signing bonuses and therefore creating more immediate cap relief. But, for the most part, the Seahawks will have to work with what they have.

Still, $14.4MM isn’t nothing — even after accounting for draft pick signings, it’d be enough to re-sign Okung. However, retaining Okung would likely mean saying goodbye to Irvin (as expected), Brandon Mebane, Ahyta Rubin, and possibly Jermaine Kearse. Additionally, it would leave little money left over for a free agent addition at, say, receiver, or along the interior offensive line. In other words, 2016 becomes the year where Seattle will have to start choosing precisely who it wants to keep around — they won’t be able to extend every contributor.

If Okung does hit free agency, he’ll be doing so along with an impressive crop of fellow left tackles. Barring any extensions between now and next March, the FA left tackle class will include Trent Williams, Anthony Castonzo, Andrew Whitworth, Nate Solder, Cordy Glenn, and Donald Penn. Williams is perhaps the most interesting comparable, as both he and Okung were selected in the top 10 of the 2010 draft, and both dealt with injuries last season (Williams missed just one game but was hampered knee, ankle, and shoulder problems throughout the 2014 campaign). Indeed, based on Pro Football Reference‘s metrics, they match up rather well:

NumYrs	Players whose career was of similar quality and shape
3	Trent Williams, Marvin Powell, Blake Brockermeyer, Joe Bostic, Mike Kenn, Mick Tingelhoff*, Kent Hill, Homer Elias, Kent Hull, Alex Barron
4	Alex Barron, Joe Bostic, Todd Steussie, Blake Brockermeyer, Trent Williams, Dan Dierdorf*, Sean Farrell, Kenyatta Walker, Frank Garcia, Donald Penn
5	Alex Barron, Tra Thomas, Bryant McKinnie, Trent Williams, Joe Bostic, Frank Garcia, Homer Elias, Dan Dierdorf*, Todd Steussie, Blake Brockermeyer
Career	George Foster, Orlando Franklin, Brad Badger, Bryan Bulaga, Zach Strief, Mike Pouncey, Will Beatty, Dave Taylor, Kyle Cook, Alex Barron

Two other players on that list, Bryan Bulaga and Will Beatty (both of whom appear under the Career section) are interesting for the purposes of this discussion, as they’ve both earned new contracts in the relatively recent past. Bulaga, a right tackle, signed a five-year, $33.75MM deal with the Packers in March that contained $8MM in guarantees. Beatty, a left tackle, signed in 2013, so his contract is a little outdated, but for reference, the Giants handed him $37.5MM over five years ($18.35MM guaranteed).

Okung was part of the last draft class that signed under the old CBA, so his current contract is artificially inflated. He’s earning about $8.08MM per season, so Beatty’s annual salary would actually represent a downgrade. That presents something of a problem: I don’t think Okung is good enough to jump into Brandon Albert/Duane Brown territory (~$9MM per year), but I also don’t believe that he’s interested in taking a pay cut. If we bump Okung’s AAV up to $8.25MM and stretch it over five years, that gives us a total of $42.25MM.

I’d guess Okung would think long and hard about accepting that offer, especially if the guarantees were in the neighborhood of $13-15MM. But would Seattle want to pay that much? They’d be giving Okung more than Joe Staley, Jared Veldheer, Eugene Monroe, and Jermon Bushrod on an annual basis, and I’m not sure Okung is better than any of them. Maybe the Seahawks would balk at such a price, hoping they can land of the top collegiate tackle prospects, or perhaps they could throw a short-term deal at someone like Whitworth.

It sounds like the Colts could be nearing a deal with Castonzo, and maybe if Washington wants to buy low on Williams with him coming off a down season, they could reach an agreement quickly, as well. Any extensions signed by those two would go a long way towards providing a baseline for the Seahawks and Okung to work from. One added wrinkle to the talks will be that Okung plans on negotiating his own deal without the help of an agent. How exactly that will affect discussions is unclear, but is it possible that Okung overvalues himself without an agent’s counsel?

Ultimately, I think it makes sense for the Seahawks to try and work something out with Okung. The Super Bowl corps can only be retained for so long, so if there’s any chance at extending their current championship window, Seattle should take it. But there’s no doubt that the club will have to start carefully picking and choosing who it wants to re-sign beginning in 2016. As Wagner tweeted before he was ultimately extended: “Can’t keep everyone.”

Extension Candidate: Julio Jones

July 23rd, 2015 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last two offseasons, a handful of productive wide receivers have signed new contracts, including Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, and DeSean Jackson. Out of that group, only Nelson has a strong case for being placed amongst the league’s very best wide receivers, and the Packers star signed his extension well before reaching free agency, accepting a below-market deal.

In other words, it had been a while since a top wideout had signed a contract that reset the market for receivers, establishing a new baseline for the NFL’s best players at the position. Mike Wallace‘s five-year, $60MM deal, finalized in March 2013, was the last signing that qualified up until last week, when Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas inked new extensions at the 11th hour before the franchise-tag deadline. The Cowboys’ and Broncos’ Pro Bowlers had their deals structured a little differently, but they look identical in terms of years and overall base value — five years and $70MM.

The per-year salaries for Bryant and Thomas fall well short of Calvin Johnson‘s $16.27MM annual average value, but that deal was an outlier, and the fact that the two franchised stars easily topped Wallace’s $12MM annual average better reflects their place among the NFL’s best wideouts. It also sets a clear baseline for the next crop of elite receivers who will seek new contracts, such as A.J. Green and Julio Jones.

Green may sign an extension this year, but he has suggested that he doesn’t mind playing out the 2015 season without a new agreement in place, and the Bengals seem content to wait as well. That leaves Jones as the receiver most likely to sign a lucrative new deal in the coming weeks, or even the coming days, with training camp just around the corner.

At the moment, Jones is set to play the 2015 season on his fully guaranteed fifth-year option, worth $10.176MM, which puts him in a slightly different situation that Bryant’s or Thomas’. Atlanta will have the option of franchising the team’s No. 1 receiver in 2016, meaning Jones’ case could eventually play out like the ones resolved last week.

However, as we saw with Bryant’s situation in particular, a prolonged negotiation can often result in some unpleasantness along the way. The Cowboys wide receiver was the subject of reports suggesting he was having money problems, and whispers about off-field concerns and a Walmart video tape that may or may not exist followed him for most of the offseason. If the Falcons could get Jones’ contract situation squared away now, it could save both sides some unnecessary stress down the read, considering the team has made it clear the wideout is considered a key long-term piece in Atlanta.

Before we automatically place Jones in the same five-year, $70MM range as Bryant and Thomas, it’s worth considering how he stacks up to the franchised duo. On paper, his 2014 numbers certainly compare favorably — in 15 games, Jones racked up 1,593 yards and six touchdowns on 104 receptions, setting a new Falcons team record for most receiving yards in a season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) also ranked him right behind Bryant and Thomas, despite the fact that he played fewer snaps than either player.

Jones’ ability to explode for huge yardage totals was on full display in Green Bay last December, when the 26-year-old went off for 259 yards on just 11 receptions in Week 14. His 106.2 receiving yards per game last season also topped the career-best marks for both Bryant and Thomas, and his eye-popping 116.0 mark during five 2013 games suggests last year’s mark wasn’t an aberration.

Still, there are some areas in which Jones doesn’t match up to the league’s other top receivers quite so favorably. He only appeared in five games in 2013 because of a fractured foot that brought his season to a premature end, and that’s not the only time he has dealt with injuries. The former sixth overall pick missed a game in 2014 after suffering a hip pointer, and has had multiple hamstring-related issues since entering the league in 2011.

Not including that 2013 season that was cut short after five weeks, Jones has only missed four games in his three other years in the NFL, so it’s not as if he’s a major question mark to be on the field going forward. But considering neither Bryant nor Thomas has missed a game over the last three seasons, it’s a factor the Falcons must take into account when they consider a long-term investment in their own No. 1 receiver.

Another factor worth considering for the Falcons is who Matt Ryan will be throwing the ball to for the next several years, if not Jones. The former first overall pick no longer has future Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to rely on, and longtime slot man Harry Douglas is now in Tennessee. Roddy White is still in the mix, but White will turn 34 in November, and is no longer a perennial lock for 1,000 yards.

A quarterback like Ryan will post solid numbers no matter who’s on the receiving end of his passes, but it’s worth noting that in 2013, when Jones missed 11 games, the Falcons signal-caller threw a career-high 17 interceptions and averaged a career-low 10.3 yards per completion en route to a 4-12 season. It would be a significant blow to the Atlanta offense to be without Jones at any point over the next few years.

So what will it take for the Falcons and Jones to get a deal done before the 2015 season gets underway? In examining the situation for CBSSports.com, former agent Joel Corry suggests that an extension in the neighborhood of $15.25MM per year makes sense, based on the likely franchise-tag figures for 2016 and 2017. If we assume a five-year extension at that rate, tacked onto Jones’ $10.176MM salary for 2015, it would work out to a total of six years and $86.426MM, an average of about $14.4MM annually.

Depending on the guaranteed money attached to such an offer, that looks like a pretty good deal for Jones, who could edge out Bryant and Thomas to become the league’s second-highest-paid receiver in that scenario. However, I’m not sure whether the Falcons would sign on the dotted line quite yet, considering they still have the franchise tag at their disposal, and they may want to see Jones stay healthy for one more year.

Still, if the Falcons were to make such an offer, it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve gone out on a limb for Jones — Atlanta parted with two first-round picks, a second-rounder, and two fourth-rounders to move up for the former Alabama wideout in 2011, and it’s hard to imagine the team thinks any less of him now. After all, his career mark of 88.4 receiving yards per game places him atop the all-time NFL leaderboard, slightly ahead of Johnson, the league’s current highest-paid receiver. I don’t expect the Falcons to make an offer in the Megatron neighborhood to Jones, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club soon make him the league’s second-highest-paid wideout.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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