Extension Candidate News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Andrew Whitworth

May 22nd, 2015 at 8:01pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With four straight postseason appearances under their belt, the Bengals didn’t have many pressing needs heading into draft season. The club’s pass rush was a concern, but many mock drafters projected that Cincinnati would select an offensive tackle in an attempt to shore up their front five for years to come. Prior to the draft, Bengals left tackle Andrew Whitworth, a free agent after the 2015 season, didn’t seem concerned that a rookie could eventually take his spot:

“I’ve always had the opposite mentality,” Whitworth said. “Mess up and draft somebody at my position because you are going to sit around and watch him sit the bench. That’s always been my mentality. I see it as a challenge.”

That was April 28. Fast forward six days to May 4, after Cincinnati had drafted not only Texas A&M tackle Cedric Ogbuehi in the first round, but Oregon tackle Jake Fisher in the second, and the 33-year-old Whitworth had changed his tune. “It’s hard to [be a team leader] when that feeling is not reciprocated and is just a one way street,” said Whitworth. “‘We’d like you to prepare two guys to be really good football players, we’d like you to be the leader of football team, but we’d also like to have the best situation possible for us. We’ll talk to you when we want to.’”

Later that week, Whitworth was involved in a bizarre social media snafu, as a message sent out from his Twitter account seemed to express even more frustration about his future with the Bengals. “[Bengals owner] Mike Brown told me I’m done here,” the tweet read. “Said I can play this year and go home. So I told him I want a raise or I’ll sit my a– at home this …” Whitworth later downplayed the situation, blaming the incident on his wife’s unfamiliarity with technology, but it’s easy to connect the dots between his earlier vexation with management and this tweet, whether or not it was intended to be released.

Despite his age, the fact that Whitworth hasn’t yet been offered an extension is a bit strange, simply because Cincinnati is willing (much more so than other NFL clubs) to hang onto its veteran players. Nearly every other team in the league would have released defensive tackle Domata Peko — among the NFL’s worst at his position — and saved more than $3MM in cap space, but as of now, he remains on the roster. 30-year-old corner Leon Hall has the second-highest cap figure on the Bengals’ roster, and has lost a step after rupturing each Achilles in the past four seasons — but he hasn’t been cut or even asked to restructure.

However, Whitworth, who along with Peko is the longest-tenured Bengal, will head into his contract year without a new deal on the horizon. The former second-round pick will earn a $5MM base salary in 2015, and account for $6.2MM on Cincinnati’s cap. While that may seem modest given Whitworth’s production, his current contract terms are part of a two-year extension tacked onto the back end of an old contract, so his ~$9.76MM AAV is actually good for the sixth-highest left tackle contract in the league.

Obviously, dollar figures will be the driving force in any sort of negotiations between Whitworth and the Bengals. But Whitworth’s fit along the offensive line could be a secondary topic of discussion, as his role come 2016 could be unclear. As noted, Cincinnati selected two players in Ogbuehi and Fisher who played primarily left tackle in college. Their addition only further clouds a Bengals front five that could look very different next season.

Like Whitworth, right tackle Andre Smith is a free agent at season’s end. The former first-round pick’s play has stagnated in recent years, and at this point it’s highly unlikely he’ll return to southern Ohio when his contract expires. Left guard Clint Boling was recently locked up via a long-term deal, but right guard Kevin Zeitler‘s future with the club is less certain — his 2016 option was exercised, and though the Bengals have indicated they’d like to reach agreement on an extension with the Georgia product, Zeitler is currently unsigned after next season. The final member of Cincy’s line, center Russell Bodine, struggled during his rookie season, and remains something of an unknown.

So where does this leave Whitworth (were he to be extended)? One possible scenario (which I first heard floated by Andy Benoit of TheMMQB.com) could see a complete shuffle of the Bengals’ front five. Left-to-right, Cincinnati’s possible 2016 offensive line could read Ogbuehi-Whitworth-Boling-Zeitler-Fisher. The concerns here are obvious: Boling has no pro experience at center, and trusting two young players with no NFL experience whatsoever on the outside could be troubling for a contending team. But if Ogbuehi and Fisher develop, this setup could mean an improvement at every position along the line. For his part, Whitworth was dominant while moonlighting as a guard during the 2013 season (check out these three GIFs as evidence).

It’s conceivable, however, that Whitworth doesn’t want to move off the blindside at this point in his career, and even if he is amenable to transitioning inside, I’d wager that he’d still want to be compensated as a left tackle. The years tacked on to the end of Whitworth’s deal in 2011 amounted to a two-year, $20MM extension. He’d probably want something similar to that to stay in Cincinnati, and given his track record, that’d be a fair deal for both sides. At 33, Whitworth shouldn’t expect a long-term deal, especially with two youngsters fighting to take his job, but a short-term pact at a respectable salary would work.

So if the Bengals do express interest in re-signing Whitworth, the only hurdle would be the level of intrigue the former LSU Tiger could attract from around the league. There isn’t a ton of precedent for age-30+ offensive lineman generating free agent bidding wars, but it’s conceivable that a club with a dire need at left tackle — Panthers? Vikings? Jaguars if Luke Joeckel continues to disappoint? — could present a large offer to Whitworth that Cincinnati would have no interest in matching.

Cincinnati has more pressing issues on its plate than the contract status of Whitworth. A.J. Green, George Iloka, Dre Kirkpatrick, Zeitler, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Reggie Nelson are just some of the Bengals whose contracts expire in the next two seasons. Green, in particular, figures to take up much of Cincinnati’s negotiating time and cap space during the next ten months, so Whitworth could be on the back burner. But a short-term deal to keep the team leader in the Queen City almost makes too much sense not to happen.

Extension Candidate: Blair Walsh

May 21st, 2015 at 10:02am CST by Luke Adams

As we noted on Wednesday, Vikings kicker Blair Walsh recently expressed optimism that he’ll be able to work out a long-term extension with the team that keeps him in Minnesota beyond 2015, the last year of his rookie contract. While Walsh’s comments suggested that contract talks hadn’t gotten serious between the two sides yet – he says there’s been “a little bit of communication” – it’s possible that the kicker will reach a deal with the club before the season gets underway.

As Walsh prepares to discuss his future with the Vikings, the roles of kickers around the NFL are evolving. The ball will be placed at the 15-yard line for extra-point attempts in 2015, meaning kickers will have to make 32- or 33-yard PATs rather than 19-yard kicks. That change will go into effect on a trial basis, but it’s extremely unlikely that the NFL will decide to return to the old format in 2016. In fact, as Newsday’s Bob Glauber (Twitter link) and TheMMQB.com’s Peter King observe, it’s more probable that the league will continue to push those extra-point tries back even further in future seasons, perhaps by another eight or 10 yards.

With the requirements for the extra point changing, it’s fair to wonder how exactly that will affect the value of kickers going forward. It’s possible that some teams will rely less on their kickers, opting to go for two points more frequently. But NFL kickers don’t miss 33-yard attempts very often, and most head coaches are fairly conservative, so I expect the majority of the league’s teams will still opt for the single point most of the time.

What does that mean for kickers? It’s not as if they’re an afterthought now, since games are frequently won or lost on field goal attempts. However, if a handful of a team’s games each season are now decided on extra-point tries, clubs figures to give the kicker position a little extra attention. Teams may be more willing to offer more money to a reliable kicker, particularly if the spot for the PAT keeps moving back in future seasons. As Josh Brown of the Giants suggests, players capable of regularly making kicks in tough weather conditions should see their value increase as well.

It raised some eyebrows around the league when the Patriots used their franchise tag this offseason on kicker Stephen Gostkowski. After all, once Gostkowski signed that one-year tender, he assured himself of a $4.54MM salary for 2015, which is significantly more than the per-year salary of any other player at his position, as Over The Cap’s data shows. The Patriots are a smart team, and likely suspected this extra point change was coming (theirs was one of the three proposals considered by the NFL). It’s not unreasonable to assume that New England was willing to go a little higher than expected to retain Gostkowski, one of the league’s most consistent and reliable kickers, having anticipated that his role would be slightly more crucial in 2015.

All of this brings us back to Walsh, whose next contract will depend at least in part on how confident the Vikings are that he can continue to make all of his extra points. Through his first two NFL seasons, Walsh was virtually automatic from inside 40 years, converting 37 of 38 attempts (97.4%). However, 2015 was a shakier season for the 25-year-old. He missed nine field goals in total, and three of those misses came from less than 40 yards away.

With extra points becoming more difficult, the Vikings may want to wait to see how Walsh performs in 2015 before committing to him on a long-term deal. If he’s the player who made 89.7% of his field goals in his first two seasons, he’s worth that multiyear investment; if he’s the guy who converted just 74.3% of his tries last year, the team may want to explore other options. Walsh’s big leg makes him valuable – he has made 17 attempts of 50+ yards in his three NFL seasons – but accuracy will be more important than ever for kickers going forward.

I expect a nice bounce-back year from Walsh, and perhaps the Vikings will have a window to buy low over the next few months, while the former sixth-round pick is coming off the worst season of his career. If Minnesota can get Walsh locked up for a deal in the neighborhood of $3MM per year, I think it makes sense for the team to try to get something done. That’s the price that kickers like Graham Gano, Matt Prater, and Nick Folk have signed for within the last couple years, and if the position’s value is truly on the rise, getting Walsh for a similar rate could be a nice coup, assuming he bounces back in 2015.

Speaking to Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune this week, Walsh said that he’s embracing the challenge that the new extra point rules will bring: “You’ve got to be confident in what you do. If somebody was telling you, ‘Hey, we’re going to make your job just a little bit more important,’ why wouldn’t you take it? It’s a new challenge.”

As his job becomes more difficult, Walsh’s confident approach should serve him well, and it could help him land a lucrative new contract. His case will be an interesting one to watch, since it could provide a hint at how these PAT changes will affect teams’ valuations of their kickers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Sam Bradford

May 10th, 2015 at 2:34pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As soon as the Eagles acquired quarterback Sam Bradford on March 10, rumors began to swirl that the former Ram wasn’t long for Philadelphia. Both St. Louis head coach Jeff Fisher and Eagles head coach Chip Kelly both claimed that they’d been offered a first-round pick for Bradford (the Browns were eventually revealed as the mystery club), and many assumed that the former No. 1 overall pick was simply trade bait, an asset for Kelly to flip in an effort to acquire his former college QB, Oregon’s Marcus Mariota.

As the draft approached, it appeared that Bradford was still on the table, as reports indicated that Kelly was attempting to deal some combination of draft picks, defensive lineman Fletcher Cox, cornerback Brandon Boykin, linebacker Mychal Kendricks, and Bradford in an effort to acquire either the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick. Kelly later denied that he offered Bradford (or any other players) in trade negotiations, but Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report said the Eagles offering up Bradford “like he was a slice of pizza.”

In the end, neither the Buccaneers nor the Titans accepted any of Philadelphia’s rumored proposals, and ultimately selected quarterbacks Jamies Wintson and Mariota, respectively. The Eagles, meanwhile, stayed put at pick No. 20, and drafted USC receiver Nelson Agholor. Kelly & Co. now appear fully committed to utilizing Bradford as their starting quarterback in 2015, and apparently still have interest in extending him.

Even if Bradford and the Eagles agree to discuss a multi-year deal, there could be significant hurdles to clear. For his part, Bradford has indicated that he won’t accept a “substandard” extension; rather, he’d prefer to play out 2015, hope for a strong season, and reassess his market value during next year’s free agent period. So if Philadelphia has hopes of leveraging Bradford’s injury issues into a team-friendly contract, it might be disappointed.

For Bradford, this mindset makes complete sense. As the final No. 1 overall pick under the previous contractual bargaining agreement, Bradford was able to sign a rookie deal that had no slot value, and offered significantly larger base salaries and guarantees than the current CBA allows for. Somewhat surprisingly given his injury history, Bradford will end up playing out the entirety of his six-year rookie contract, earning $78MM in the process. Provided he’s managed his money correctly, Bradford has zero financial incentive to settle for a mediocre extension — he can simply wait out the Eagles until they offer a package that he likes, or head to free agency next March.

From the Eagles’ perspective, a possible extension for Bradford carries risk for two opposing reasons. On one hand, Kelly’s offensive scheme has the power to inflate quarterback statistics — take Nick Foles‘ 2013 season, or part of Mark Sanchez‘s 2014 season, for example. Bradford may not be the perfect fit for Kelly’s system that Mariota was, but neither was Foles or Sanchez. It’s not difficult to imagine Bradford posting an excellent 2015 season, and in the process significantly upping his contract demands. With that in mind, working out an extension now could save Philadelphia money in the long run.

On the other hand, it’s difficult not to be wary of Bradford’s lengthy injury history. He’s now suffered two torn ACLs in his five-year career, and he’s played in only 49 out of a possible 80 games since entering the league. The Eagles unquestionably field a better offensive line than the Rams, which should lead to a cleaner pocket for Bradford and in theory, less injury potential. But it could be tough for Philadelphia to commit a large sum of money to a player who might not be on the field too often.

Though Bradford may not be the perfect fit for Kelly’s scheme, Kelly realizes that finding such a quarterback could prove difficult. Additionally, the Eagles plan to be in a constant state of contention, meaning they will reload, not rebuild, as Kelly explained to Derrick Gunn of CSNPhilly.com last week:

“[T]he one thing I can promise is that we’re not going to just sit there and hopefully in a couple of years we’re going to build this thing. We’re not waiting for the draft of 2017 to turn this thing around.

“[I]f you want to play with the odds as we want to play, it’s got to be with a quarterback situation and then the only way you’re going to get a quarterback is you got to be really not very good so you finish in the top 1-2 in the draft. If we’re not very good and we finish with the top 1-2 in the draft, I don’t think I’m going to be here, so we better find another way to find a quarterback.”

Kelly is clearly happy with Bradford as his starting quarterback, and Bradford seems to want to stay in Philadelphia, as reports last month indicated that he would only sign an extension that contained a no-trade clause because he wants to play for Kelly. Now that the draft has passed without him being dealt, Bradford probably isn’t dead-set on such a clause any longer, but the sentiment remains.

Ultimately, I think a short-term extension makes the most sense for both sides. It’s easy to forget that Bradford is still just 27 years old, so tacking on three years to his current deal would result in him hitting the free agent market at 31, when he could garner yet another large contract. Bradford could end up earning a somewhat surprising total — the fact the clubs were willing to part with a first-rounder to acquire him signifies his value in the current QB-scarce landscape.

A three-year deal that compares to that of Cardinals signal-caller Carson Palmer could make some sense — at age 35, Palmer is significantly older than Bradford, but he also has a more recent record of success. Palmer is scheduled to earn almost $50MM over three seasons, with $14MM in full guarantees. I’d guess that a Bradford extension would come in lower than that, maybe around $35-40MM, with roughly the same guarantees. It would also need to come with serious injury protection for the Eagles, and would probably contain quite a bit of money tied up in per-game roster bonuses — if Bradford isn’t on the field, he wouldn’t be earning those bonuses.

Whether or not Bradford would accept such a deal is the central question. Would he prefer to bet on himself, hope to perform well this season, and offer his services to the highest bidder next March? Or does he want to commit to a talented coach in Kelly and a team that is set up for success? The answer could provide the blueprint for the Eagles future for years to come.

Extension Candidate: Devin McCourty

November 9th, 2014 at 5:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Despite a reputation for mastering the draft process, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick’s record of procuring and developing defensive back talent isn’t very impressive. Over the past decade, Belichick has regrettably used first- and second-round picks on players such such as Terrence Wheatley (2008), Darius Butler (2009), and Ras-I Dowling (2011), each of whom failed to live up to expectations. Not every attempt to add pieces to the New England secondary has been a disaster, as Brandon Meriweather (2007) and Patrick Chung (2009) proved somewhat useful during their tenure with the Pats. However, no Patriots defensive back draft selection of the past ten years has matched the production of 2010 first-rounder Devin McCourty, whose rookie contract expires after this season.

Since joining the Patriots four years ago, the 27-year-old McCourty has displayed impressive versatility in addition to excellent play. During his first two seasons in the league, he played strictly cornerback, and was employed primarily on the left side of the defense. The Rutgers product regressed from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign — though he graded as the league’s seventh-best CB in 2010, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he fell to 57th in 2011. McCourty was still effective against the run in ’11, but his coverage grade lagged, which might have factored into New England’s decision to convert him to safety.

The positional transformation began in 2012, as McCourty began splitting his snaps between corner and safety. He spent more time at S (about 57% of his snaps), and PFF rated him as above-average at both positions. McCourty’s best season to-date came last year, when he finished with 58 tackles and one interception in 15 games, and ended up as the No. 1 safety in the league per PFF’s metrics. He’s started every game this season, and been a factor in both pass and run coverage, accruing 20 tackles and one pick.

Given that the Patriots added Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner via free agency during the offseason, it’s a little surprising that their pass defense isn’t among the NFL’s elite. New England ranks 19th in passing yards allowed, 11th in yards per attempt allowed, and 16th in pass defense DVOA. However, Browner didn’t play until Week 6 following a suspension, so the unit has had much time to mesh. Additionally, the Patriots pass-rush isn’t special, meaning opposing quarterbacks have a lot of time to attack New England’s secondary. Though they rank 13th in sacks, the Pats are 28th in adjusted sack rate, a figure that doesn’t figure to improve as long as Chandler Jones is sidelined with an injury.

Nevertheless, it seems to be a given that the Patriots would want to retain McCourty, who was named an All-Pro in both 2010 and 2013. Given that Revis won’t return to New England unless he negotiates a new deal (he’s signed for 2015, but with a $25MM cap charge, he’ll be cut), the Patriots probably want to keep their leader in the secondary around. News surrounding McCourty extension talks has been slim, but Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reported in early August that two sides had exchanged initial proposals, but weren’t overly close to an agreement. At the time, La Canfora noted that talks could heat up before the season; while that obviously didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be shock to see a deal struck in-season.

McCourty is earning $3.92MM in base salary this season. Add in his prorated roster bonus, and a $50K workout bonus, and he counts $5.115MM against the cap. When discussing an extension, he and his representatives would surely look to either match or exceed the deals signed by Earl Thomas and Jairus Byrd earlier this year. Both are rangy free safeties like McCourty, as opposed to in-the-box strong safeties like Dashon Goldson, so their contracts work well as comparables. Thomas’ deal was an extension, however, while Byrd joined the Saints via free agency, so his contract might present the better option for locating a benchmark.

Thomas, who is two years younger than McCourty, received $40MM over four years, with nearly half ($19.725MM) guaranteed. McCourty has been the better player since he made the switch to full-time safety per PFF, but the advanced metrics aren’t the be-all, end-all of player evaluation. Soft factors are important, as well — McCourty doesn’t have the reputation that Thomas, regarded as the league’s best safety, does. Additionally, Thomas was coming off a season as a key component of one of the best pass defenses in NFL history as he discussed an extension with Seattle; McCourty, as noted, plays on a below-average unit.

I don’t think McCourty will be able to match Thomas’ contract; at $10MM per season, Thomas redefined the market for safeties in a way that I don’t believe McCourty can. But $9MM a per year, the same amount Byrd received, should be in reach for McCourty. And while Byrd only got 33.9% of his total deal guaranteed, McCourty would likely see more than that — I’d peg it closer to Thomas’ 49.3%, so perhaps around $17MM over a four-year contract. In total, a four-year extension worth roughly $37MM, with $17-18MM guaranteed, would make sense for both sides. The Patriots like to use in-game roster bonuses in their deals, but given that McCourty doesn’t have an injury history or character concerns, I wouldn’t expect them to be too large.

New England’s fiscal situation shouldn’t present a barrier to negotiations. The Patriots currently have $4.281MM in 2015 cap space available, but they can save about $3.3MM by releasing Danny Amendola and Michael Hoomanawanui. The club can clear an additional ~$7.567MM by parting ways with veteran defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, a move that seems likely given his lack of production this season.

If a deal can’t be worked out, the club has the option to place the franchise tag on McCourty. Safety had the third-cheapest tag figure in 2014, exceeding only tight end and kicker/punter, and that probably won’t change next season. The number itself will rise from $8.433MM, but so will the league-wide salary cap, so the figure shouldn’t present a problem. Securing a player with McCourty’s talent on a one-year deal for around $9MM would be a steal, but both the team and the player would surely like to work out a contract that enables McCourty to remain in New England for the forseeable future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Carson Palmer

November 5th, 2014 at 10:35pm CST by Rory Parks

We learned several weeks ago that the Cardinals had opened extension talks with quarterback Carson Palmer, who is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2014 campaign. The Cardinals have been desperate for consistency under center since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, and their search has taken them through eight different quarterbacks in a little less than five years.

Given Arizona’s quarterback woes and the success that Palmer and second-year head coach Bruce Arians have enjoyed together—the Cardinals are 14-7 under Arians when Palmer starts—it is easy to see why the team would want to secure Palmer’s services for at least the next couple of seasons. This is despite Palmer’s age (35) and recent injury history.

Although Drew Stanton went 2-1 this year in Palmer’s absence, the 30-year-old did little to prove that he is anything more than a career backup, and fourth-round rookie Logan Thomas is very much a work in progress. Furthermore, the top quarterbacks in the 2015 free agent class, assuming neither is re-signed by their current clubs, are Michael Vick and Brian Hoyer, and the 7-1 Cardinals are unlikely to have a shot at the top signal-callers in the 2015 draft unless they trade up.

As our Zach Links pointed out, even with the shortage of quality quarterbacks available, Palmer is unlikely to receive a significant hike in annual salary. He is earning $9MM this year, and that seems to be about right for a quarterback who is having something of a late-career renaissance but who does have age and injury concerns.

Palmer has amassed a 99.3 quarterback rating this season, throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions, and Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rates him as a solid but unspectacular passer, akin to Alex Smith and Andy Dalton. The naked eye test supports the PFF assessment, but as of right now, Arizona does not need Palmer to be an All-Pro. The Cardinals simply need continued stability and consistency, which, combined with their excellent defense, have created a surprising championship contender.

So if Palmer does not get a big boost in average annual value if and when he signs an extension with Arizona, and if Arians is right in his prediction that Palmer can play until he is 36 or 37, then a two-year pact worth between $20-22MM would appear to work well for both sides. The Cardinals could continue to groom Thomas, if they still believe in him, and the young talent they have at the offensive skill positions—not to mention the return of players like Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett on the defensive side of the ball—should keep the Cards in contention for at least a wild card berth during the life of Palmer’s deal.

Wherever his next contract takes him, it will likely be the last in what has been an up-and-down, but nonetheless successful, career, the highlight of which may be yet to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Von Miller

November 1st, 2014 at 10:33pm CST by Luke Adams

Although they came into the season looking up at the defending-champion Seahawks, having been steamrolled by Russell Wilson and company back in February’s Super Bowl, the Broncos have since established themselves as 2014’s best team through eight weeks. At 6-1, Denver’s only loss came against those aforementioned Seahawks, and that was an overtime contest that could’ve gone either way. With solid victories against the Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, 49ers, and Chargers also on their 2014 resumé, the Broncos head into the second half in pole position for the AFC’s top seed.

Everything is firing on all cylinders now for the Broncos, but at season’s end, the team will have several tough decisions to make. Impact players like wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, tight end Julius Thomas, and cornerback Chris Harris face potential unrestricted free agency, and with about $108MM in salaries already on the books for 2015, the team may not have the flexibility to retain all its key players.

While those players whose deals expire at the end of the 2014 season will likely be Denver’s top priorities, the team also figures to address another important contract situation this offseason, with standout linebacker Von Miller eligible for an extension. Denver picked up its fifth-year option on Miller this past spring, meaning he’s under contract for a $9.754MM salary in 2015. However, it may be in both sides’ best interests to work out a longer-term agreement, one that locks up Miller for a few additional years and perhaps lowers his cap hit for ’15.

Two years ago, Miller was one of the league’s best defensive players in just his second NFL season, piling up 18.5 sacks and forcing six fumbles for the Broncos, earning himself a Pro Bowl spot and a First-Team All-Pro nod. 2013 was a struggle for Miller though, beginning with a six-game suspension for attempting to cheat a drug test and ending with a torn ACL that ended his year early. In between, the former second overall pick also recorded just five sacks in nine games and dealt with off-field legal issues.

As such, 2014 was an important year for Miller as the team assessed which soon-to-be free agents would be part of the long-term plans in Denver, and which were more expendable. So far, the 25-year-old’s play hasn’t left any doubt — the Broncos should do everything they can to lock him up. Through seven games, only Justin Houston of the divisional-rival Chiefs has more sacks (10) than Miller’s nine.

Of course, even in 2013, an apparent down year, advanced metrics suggested that Miller was far and away the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the league. Since he entered the NFL in 2011, Miller has ranked atop the list of qualified players at the position, and it hasn’t been close, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). Miller’s grades of +48.2, +82.6, +42.8, and +26.4 have given him a double-digit margin over the runner-up in each of his four seasons, and have provided an indication of just how good he is against the run as well as the pass — his grade as a run defender has placed first among 4-3 OLBs in each of his four seasons.

There’s no question then that any team would love to have Miller on the field, and if he were a model citizen off the field, it would probably be just a matter of time until he signed one of the most lucrative contract extensions in all of football. But those off-field problems that have nagged Miller throughout his career figure to come up in contract negotiations, even if accounts out of Denver this season suggest that the Texas A&M product is developing into one of the Broncos’ leaders on defense. With the NFL facing increased public scrutiny in recent months, the league’s policies and penalties for off-field transgressions could become more punitive, and the risk of future suspensions for Miller might make the Broncos shy away from making a massive investment.

Still, it’s hard to downplay Miller’s on-field contributions. With the exception of J.J. Watt and perhaps a couple other players, no defender in the league has the sort of impact at his position that Miller does. Offseason additions like Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, and DeMarcus Ware have played a part in the Broncos’ improved defense this season, but Miller is the unit’s most valuable piece, and I’d be shocked if the club ever let him reach the open market, even if there are lingering concerns about his off-field conduct.

In order to re-sign players like the Thomases and Harris in the offseason, the Broncos may look to reduce Miller’s $9.754MM cap hit for 2015 by signing him to an extension that pushes some of that money back to future seasons. If the two sides do try to work something out this winter, recent contracts signed by pass rushers like Tamba Hali and Trent Cole could serve as a baseline for Miller’s new deal. Given his astronomical numbers, I’d expect a deal for Miller to exceed the $11.5-12MM annual salaries secured by those players and perhaps land in the neighborhood of contracts signed by Charles Johnson, Robert Quinn, or even Mario Williams.

Those three deals range from four to six years, at a rate of $12.5-16MM per season, with between $15-32MM in guaranteed money. Based on Miller’s history and the Broncos’ typical method for structuring contracts, I could picture the two sides agreeing to a deal for something in the neighborhood of five years and $70-75MM, with a fairly modest guarantee — perhaps $15MM or so. An offer like that would give Miller the opportunity to earn significant annual salaries while giving the team some insurance in case the veteran’s off-field issues resurface.

General manager John Elway and company aren’t likely to address Miller’s contract, or any others, until after the season, but these negotiations shouldn’t be overlooked, even as the team attempts to re-sign Peyton Manning‘s top receivers (Thomas and Thomas) and the defense’s best cornerback (Harris). Playing out the 2015 season with Miller on a one-year deal is a possibility, particularly if the team wants to see him continue to mature, but this winter could be the best time to hammer out a long-term contract from a financial perspective.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Mark Ingram

October 31st, 2014 at 8:35pm CST by Dallas Robinson

It’s become almost cliché to note that the running back position has been severely devalued in today’s NFL, but glance at most any financial or statistical metric and you’ll quickly reach that conclusion. Consider the 2014 free agent running back class, which, while admittedly lackluster and not comparable to the potentially fruitful 2015 RB crop, featured veterans such as Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden, useful role players like Donald Brown and Knowshon Moreno, and backs who seemingly just needed more opportunity in Ben Tate and Rashad Jennings. Despite the league’s salary cap being raised by more than nine percent, running back contracts bottomed out, with Johnson receiving the highest annual average value at $4MM, and Brown, at $10MM, garnering the largest total deal.

The league’s offensive schemes have changed, as teams are attempting passes at a far greater clip than they are rushing the ball. Since the turn of the century, league-wide pass attempts have risen steadily, while rushing attempts have decreased at nearly the same rate. This season, clubs are running the ball on just 42% of offensive plays. Additionally, the “featured back” is becoming a concept of yesteryear, meaning that no one runner is able to solely elevate his value through repeated opportunities. In each season since 2010, for example, we’ve seen an average of just four running backs per season receive 300 or more carries. In the 20 seasons prior, an average of 7.25 RBs per season attempted 300+ rushes, a 55% increase. Running back has become a position attended to by a committee, so the league as a whole doesn’t positively assess many singular backs.

The draft is another market that has decided running backs are not a worthwhile investment. No RBs were selected in the first round of either the 2013 or the 2014 draft. Four were chosen in the two years prior, but Trent Richardson, chosen third overall in 2012, was the anomaly who was not a end-of-the-round selection. Doug Martin, selected in the same draft as Richardson, went to the Buccaneers at pick No. 31. In 2011, the Giants took David Wilson thirty-second overall, while the player who has been the most successful to this point was chosen four spots earlier. With the No. 28 pick in the ’11 draft, the Saints selected Mark Ingram out of Alabama.

Ingram, of course, had won the Heisman Trophy as the NCAA’s best football player during his sophomore season in 2009. Drafted to be teamed with a New Orleans running back contingent that already consisted of Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory, Ingram largely disappointed over his first three seasons in the NFL. Despite leading the Saints’ backfield in carries during that span, Ingram never topped 650 yards rushing or five touchdowns, and wasn’t a factor in the passing game. In fact, Ingram’s approximate value during his first three years in the NFL ranks fourth-lowest among running backs selected in the first round since 2000 during the same stretch of their careers.

New Orleans management was obviously unimpressed, as well, as they declined Ingram’s fifth-year option, meaning that he will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. It’s a move that general manger Mickey Loomis & Co. have probably come to regret, as Ingram is enjoying his finest season as an NFL player. After Sproles was traded during the offseason, Thomas and fellow runner Khiry Robinson dealt with injuries, leaving Ingram as the lead back. Despite missing two games with a hand ailment, Ingram has rushed 88 times for 431 yards, and scored six times. He’s also caught eight balls in just five games; he averaged eight receptions per season during the first three years of his career. Advanced metrics are also a fan of Ingram’s work. Despite his low snap totals, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) grades Ingram as the 11th-best running back in the league among 59 qualifiers. Football Outsiders sets the line of demarcation for its statistics at 64 rushing attempts, which Ingram doesn’t meet. But among RBs with 63 or fewer carries, Ingram is first in DYAR and third in DVOA.

Despite his current level of production, Ingram might not be with the Saints for long. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported yesterday that the 24-year-old is expected to hit free agency at the end of the season. If New Orleans doesn’t want to lock Ingram up with a long-term deal just yet, they do have the option of retaining him via the franchise tag. However, given that the club declined to spend the $5.2MM it would have taken to keep Ingram via the fifth-year option, it’s doubtful that it would now guarantee him north of $10MM by using the franchise tender. Additionally, the Saints probably don’t even have the cap space to use a franchise tag. Over the Cap’s data shows New Orleans with negative cap room for 2015, at more than $18MM in the red. The team will obviously have to do some financial maneuvering and/or hope that the salary cap rises dramatically, but it’s still unlikely they’d use any cap relief on a franchise tag for Ingram.

Regardless of whether Ingram stays in New Orleans or leaves via free agency, I don’t think his contract numbers will be that different. Specifically, I think that his final dollar amount received will be rather modest, far less than most might think. For one, he’s part of a relatively loaded free agent class of running backs — DeMarco Murray, Shane Vereen, Frank Gore, Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, and C.J. Spiller are playing on expiring contracts. And though many of those players have their warts (age, injury concerns), it’s still a strong crop, meaning that RB-needy teams will have options to choose from.

If he stays healthy for the rest of his historic season, Murray will earn the most among the backs listed, and Ingram is a strong contender to earn the second-most favorable contract. But it’s doubtful that any FA back receives the type of deals that LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, or Marshawn Lynch got. Those four backs are making between $7.3MM and $9MM per season, and were guaranteed between $13.8MM and $20.77MM. Murray could conceivably sneak into the back of that salary range (though I personally doubt it), but Ingram is probably a pay level, or two below.

Like quarterback contracts before Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Alex Smith were extended, running back deals don’t have much of a middle-tier. The upper-level group earns $7MM+ on what are mostly extensions, and the lower tier, made up mostly of free agents, make $4MM or less in AAV. The only contracts in between are rookie deals paying the likes of Spiller, Mathews, and Richardson. Gore makes about $6.4MM per year, which should set the ceiling for Ingram. Gore was a much more proven player when he signed his deal than Ingram is now, and was constantly putting up 1,000+ yard seasons. Ingram’s floor will probably be that of the 2014 FA running class, or about $4MM.

Ingram, like Kaepernick et al., could potentially break new ground and establish a fresh mid-tier level of contracts. An average annual value in the neighborhood of $5.5MM would do just that, and would be fair value for Ingram. I could see him receiving something like $9-10MM in guarantees over the course of a four-year deal. It’s a contract that the Saints likely won’t be able to afford, and given their affinity for crowded backfields, probably wouldn’t even try to match. But another team in need of a running back might be able to lock up Ingram at a relatively reasonable rate, and hope that 2014 Ingram is the true version of the player, as opposed to the 2011-13 model.

Extension Candidate: Randall Cobb

October 11th, 2014 at 7:46pm CST by Dallas Robinson

When the Packers agreed to sign Julius Peppers to a three-year, $27MM deal in March, it was fair to wonder if things were changing in Green Bay. For one, Peppers was a 34-year-old career 4-3 defensive end who would be asked to play quite a bit of 3-4 outside linebacker — paying him $9MM a year to do so, especially when he was coming off a subpar 2013 season, seemed questionable. Additionally, the entire concept of free agency is anathema to Green Bay general manager Ted Thompson. Peppers was just the seventh veteran free agent Thompson has added since joining the Packers in 2006, per Bill Barnwell of Grantland.

Even more so than the teams like the Steelers or the Giants, who occasionally dip into the free agent pool to acquire a specific need at a reasonable cost, the Packers simply have no interest in bringing in veteran outsiders. Over the Cap’s data shows that among Green Bay’s top-20 2014 cap charges, just one belongs to a player (Peppers) who has seen any regular-season action with another team. However, those same numbers show that the Packers are more than willing to pay for performance by its own players — Aaron Rodgers, Sam Shields, Clay Matthews, and Josh Sitton are among the Packers who have been signed to a extensions in recent years.

Green Bay was seemingly more reticent to offer fresh contracts to skill position players (excluding Rodgers) until this summer, when it agreed to a four-year, $39MM deal with receiver Jordy Nelson. While the extension made Nelson the eighth-highest-paid wideout in terms of annual value, it’s relatively modest in terms of guaranteed money — Nelson received only $11.5MM in guarantees in the form of signing bonus, good for just 23rd among receivers. Still, the deal will certainly remain relevant for the Packers throughout the rest of the season and the offseason, as they attempt to negotiate a new deal with another pass-catcher — fourth-year WR Randall Cobb.

Cobb, 24, entered the league as second-round pick out of Kentucky in 2011. After failing to start a game during his rookie year (but still offering value in the return game), Cobb broke out in his sophomore season, catching 80 passes for 954 yards and eight touchdowns. He ranked ninth in receiver DVOA, and graded as the 11th-best WR per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Injuries sapped Cobb’s effectiveness in 2013, as a fractured fibula limited him to just six games. He’s rebounded this season, however, catching 24 balls for 273 yards and six touchdowns through five games. Advanced metrics differ on Cobb’s 2014 performance so far — while DVOA rates him as top-3 receiver, PFF grades him as just the 24th-best wideout at this point in the season.

Before entering into negotiations with Cobb, the Packers will first have to decide how much they are comfortable spending on the receiver position. As noted, Nelson has already extended, meaning that a Cobb deal would likely place the team in the upper-echelon in terms of receiver expenditures. Currently, the Dolphins spend the most on WRs (by a large margin) at just over $32MM; the Redskins and Lions are second on third on that list, as each spends about $23MM on wideouts. For the Packers specifically, will the club’s emphasis on depth mean that they will refuse to overextend at one position, or will the league’s emphasis on passing lead Green Bay to heavily invest in its pass-catching unit?

Assuming Green Bay is interested in working out an extension with Cobb, it can look to several recent WR contracts when looking for comparables. The floor for a new Cobb deal is probably that of Emmanuel Sanders, who received $15MM over three years ($6MM guaranteed) from the Broncos during the offseason. Sanders is off to an incredible start through five games, but heading into the year, his career stats were less impressive than Cobb’s. As far as a ceiling, it’s safe to assume that Cobb won’t top Eric Decker‘s five-year, $36.25MM contract with the Jets. Both Cobb and Decker have caught passes from Hall of Fame level quarterbacks, and Decker’s production outweighs that of Cobb.

The best comparison for Cobb might be Golden Tate, the ex-Seahawk whose free agent contract with the Lions was worth $31MM over five years, with $8MM guaranteed. Physically, the two are alike — Cobb stands 5’10” and weighs 191 pounds, while Tate is listed at 5’11”, 195. Each offers value on special teams, and while Cobb is probably regarded as the better big-play threat, Tate has the surer hands. Cobb’s career highs in both receptions (80) and yards (954) best those of Tate (64, 898).

While Tate was never an injury risk in Seattle, the same can’t be said for Cobb. His injury woes lead me to believe that he will ultimately secure a deal that totals slightly less than that of Tate. Of course, a forward-looking team could view Cobb as an asset with untapped potential. At 26, Tate was viewed as a finished product when he signed his contract; he was a steady player who probably wasn’t going to get much better, or worse, during his time in Detroit. Cobb, however, has not only had to battle injuries, but compete for looks with Nelson in Green Bay. If a team aimed to acquire Cobb and install him as a true No. 1 receiver, the possibilities could be limitless.

Cobb ranked fifth on Mike Sando of ESPN.com’s June power ranking of 2015 free agent receivers, which was compiled after the scribe spoke with several NFL decision-makers. An offensive assistant was complimentary of Cobb, speaking more favorably of him than 49ers WR Michael Crabtree: “Cobb and Crabtree are interchangeable on my list,” said the assistant. “Cobb is the model person and will always show up on time. Crabtree comes off whinier, and the guy from Seattle [Richard Sherman] got in his head. Cobb is coming from the right program with Mike McCarthy, one with structure and discipline and doing the right things. Crabtree does play outside more, but I’d rather coach Cobb.”

Ultimately, if Cobb does remain in Green Bay, I’d expect him to sign a deal in the $5.5-6MM per year range, with perhaps $6MM guaranteed. Depending on how the contract was structured, it would probably move the Packers into the top-12 or so in terms of wide receiver spending; they currently rank 24th. The club has the financial wherewithal with which to work, as they have more than $18MM in 2015 cap space available.

For his part, Cobb said this summer that (at the time) his production didn’t warrant an extension. “I don’t believe I’ve done enough, and I think that’s on me,” Cobb told Jason Wilde of ESPN.com. “My job is … to work hard and hopefully my time will come.” Wilde’s ESPN colleague, Rob Demovsky, wrote earlier today that Cobb could be the one delaying negotiations, rather than the Packers, and noted that Cobb will need to show more before he asks for the type of money that Nelson received. Regardless of the specifics, Cobb’s case will be interesting to watch, both from the perspective of the player, who surely wants to match his teammate’s contract, and the front office, which is esteemed throughout the league.

Extension Candidate: Brian Hoyer

October 8th, 2014 at 9:43am CST by Luke Adams

It may seem like a lifetime ago now, but we’re only a few weeks removed from a time when the daily exploits of Johnny Manziel were consistently among the NFL’s hottest stories. Whether it was the rookie quarterback being spotted with a rolled-up dollar bill in Las Vegas or giving the middle finger to the Washington sideline during a preseason game, Manziel was making headlines all summer.

Five weeks into the regular season, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Greg Hardy, and several other black eyes for the NFL likely have the league longing for the days when Manziel was its biggest newsmaker. But it’s not just those stories that have knocked the 22nd overall pick out of the news cycle. While many observers believed Manziel would’ve assumed the starting role in Cleveland by now, the former Heisman winner has only seen the field for the occasional gimmick play, having being otherwise sidelined by the strong play of veteran starter Brian Hoyer.

As Adam Caplan of ESPN.com noted this week (via Twitter), Hoyer’s agent Joe Linta and the Browns had just one conversation about the QB’s contract status prior to the season, following the draft. Although we heard at the time that the team had interest in extending Hoyer’s deal, Caplan says (via Twitter) that the two sides were far apart. However, the ESPN.com scribe believes that Hoyer’s play through Cleveland’s first four games will “eventually bring both sides together for an extension.”

Hoyer, who turns 29 next Monday, hasn’t exactly been maintaining a Peyton Manning-esque pace through his first four contests this season, but his numbers are very solid — the Michigan State product has completed 62.1% of his passes, is averaging more than 250 yards per game, and has thrown just one interception to go along with his six TD passes.

Most importantly, for a Cleveland team that was expected to occupy the cellar in the AFC North, Hoyer has engineered big wins over the Saints and Titans, leading fourth-quarter comebacks in both games. The Browns still face an uphill battle in a division that features the 3-1 Bengals, as well as the 3-2 Ravens and Steelers, but combined with his 3-0 record as a starter last season, Hoyer’s record so far this year shows that he’s capable of earning victories that many NFL starting QBs wouldn’t.

Assuming Hoyer’s strong play continues, an extension certainly seems within the realm of possibility. But there was a reason the two sides were far apart in the offseason, and there’s a reason that former Browns CEO Joe Banner refers to it as “one of the toughest contract decisions on both sides” that he has ever seen (Twitter link). With Manziel in the mix, it’s still not clear if Hoyer projects as Cleveland’s long-term starter, which is presumably how he’ll want to be paid. Knowing they have the inexpensive Manziel as a fall-back option, the Browns won’t be eager to break the bank for Hoyer, and an extension would mean risking having him turn into the NFL’s most overpaid backup.

The uncertainty about Hoyer’s long-term role is the primary reason why both sides may be inclined to keep extension discussions on hold for now, but it’s still worth examining what sort of figures Hoyer’s camp and the Browns might propose if negotiations take place during the season. The former Patriot will certainly be in line for a raise on 2014’s modest $1MM base salary, but by how much?

One point of comparison for the Browns may be Kyle Orton‘s two-year, $11MM deal with the Bills. Orton is the starter in Buffalo now, but when he was signed, the team regarded him as a backup to E.J. Manuel. At an average rate of $5.5MM per year, Orton was paid more than virtually every other backup in the league because the Bills recognized that a change may be necessary if the erratic Manuel struggled out of the gates.

Josh McCown‘s two-year, $10MM contract with the Buccaneers is a similar pact, though Tampa Bay viewed McCown as its starter heading into the season. The former Bear earned that deal after a brief, successful run as the starter in Chicago — while his numbers during that 2013 stretch were fantastic, a combination of his age and his mediocre career production kept the overall value of the pact in check.

Unlike Orton and McCown though, Hoyer is on the right side of age 30, and is showing he’s capable of acting as more than just the caretaker of an offense. His track record may not be extensive, but Hoyer has never been given the opportunity to prove himself as a starter, and now that he’s getting that chance, he’s proving he shouldn’t be moved down the depth chart anytime soon. If the Browns aren’t willing to offer him fair market value, other teams will be interested in the offseason, and assuming his play doesn’t fall off a cliff over the remainder of the season, Hoyer should be able to land a deal worth more than Orton’s or McCown’s on the open market.

From Linta’s perspective, it’s difficult to point to another player that represents a logical comparable for his client. Few quarterbacks have Hoyer’s combination of talent and inexperience at age 29, and that lack of a track record will almost certainly keep the Browns quarterback from landing a top-15 kind of deal. Perhaps a multiyear contract in the range of $8-10MM per year will make sense for Hoyer — as Over the Cap’s data shows, that’s currently a no-man’s land on the quarterback market, with no contracts averaging anything between Carson Palmer‘s $8MM and Tom Brady‘s $11.4MM.

Ultimately, it seems the Browns could be forced to make a decision between Hoyer or Manziel, and considering what a black hole the quarterback position has been for the team for the last several years, there’s no need to rush that decision. It makes sense for the Browns to wait until season’s end to see what they have in Hoyer. At that point, an extension could make a lot of sense for Cleveland. Even if the club intends to give Manziel an opportunity in the near future, he’ll be on an affordable rookie contract for several more seasons — that means there will be flexibility under the cap to pay Hoyer and potentially move on from Hoyer’s contract if and when Manziel proves he should be the No. 1 option in Cleveland.

Extension Candidate: Cliff Avril

October 3rd, 2014 at 9:39pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Like most successful NFL teams, the Seahawks aren’t a club built through notable free agent acquisitions. Seattle stars Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and K.J. Wright were acquired through the draft, while Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin were obtained via trade. However, the Hawks are not averse to spending wisely in free agency, mostly in the form of modest, short-term deals. During the 2013 offeason, for example, Seattle added several pieces to its defensive line, two of whom (Michael Bennett and Tony McDaniel) signed one-year contracts. In the months since, both Bennett (four years, $28.5MM) and McDaniel (two years, ~$6.5MM) have been retained.

The Seahawks signed a third defensive lineman during that same offseason, one who (at the time) probably had the most name recognition. Cliff Avril was added on a two-year deal worth $13MM; the second year of the pact (2014) became fully guaranteed on February 7. Per Over the Cap, Avril is also eligible to earn as much as $2.1MM in sack-based incentives. Given its significant investment in Bennett, it’s fair to wonder if Seattle is interested in extending Avril in order to preserve its outstanding defensive line.

Avril, 28, entered the league as a second-round pick of the Lions in 2008. He became a full-time starter in Detroit the following season, and went on to rack up 39.5 sacks and 124 tackles across 73 games in the Motor City. After his rookie contract expired, Avril rejected a three-year, $30MM contract offer from the Lions, and played the 2012 season under the franchise tag, which was worth roughly $10.6MM.

While Pro Football Focus’ grades can’t encapsulate every detail of a players’ performance, their advanced metrics do paint a complex picture of Avril. Except for the 2010 season, PFF (subscription required) assigned Avril a negative grade from 2008-2012. During that span, the Purdue product exhibited a far greater capacity for pass-rushing than run defending. To illustrate this, I totaled Avril’s pass-rush and run-defense grades for that four-year period. Against the run, PFF rated Avril as a -45.5 player from ’08-’12 — he was much better at getting to the quarterback, as he garnered a +55.3 grade during the same span. This data portrays Avril as a one-dimensional lineman, one who could help in obvious passing situations but would struggle on early downs.

Even after joining a different defensive scheme in Seattle, Avril continued to struggle against the run. This isn’t to insinuate that Avril is a sub-par player, as he accrued a +8.2 grade from PFF in 2013, rating as the 12th-best 4-3 defensive end among 52 qualifiers. But, like the rest of his career, most of his value was tied up in pass-rushing. Through four games this season, however, Avril has shown to be more of a complete DL — PFF says he’s the third-best at his position, and is almost as equally proficient against the run as the pass.

Despite Avril’s successes, Seattle might be reticent to retain the veteran. General manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll aren’t afraid to rid themselves of veterans, especially along the defensive line, as evidenced by their release of both Red Bryant and Chris Clemons earlier this year. Avril will be 29 when the 2015 season gets underway, so the Hawks could be wary of committing to a multi-year deal. Additionally, as Jason Fitzgerald of OTC noted when examining the construction of Super Bowl teams, Seattle isn’t a typically-built squad, meaning that spending big on a 4-3 end (which many clubs do) might not be in the cards, especially given that it already has Bennett under contract.

Still, the Seahawks will have more than $29MM available in cap space heading into 2015, and as Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reported twice in the past three months, the team is very interested in working out a new deal with Avril. His current $7.5MM average annual value would place him at 14th among defensive ends, in between Carlos Dunlap and Bennett. At first glance, it seems as though Avril should surpass the 12th-highest DE contract: the four-year, $32MM ($15.5MM in guarantees) pact Jared Allen signed with the Bears. However, Bennett, No. 13 among 4-3 ends, was a better player than Avril last year — the two are playing at an equal level in 2014, but Bennett is the more versatile player who can move around in the Hawks’ front four.

Ultimately, it’s difficult to imagine Seattle giving Avril more money than Bennett received. This creates a conundrum, as Bennett’s AAV on his new deal is almost $400K less than Avril’s two-year pact. Bennett did take less money to stay with the Seahawks, but it’s worth wondering whether Avril would consider less money on a per-year basis in order to secure a large guarantee. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle offered Avil the exact same contract as Bennett: four years, $28.5MM, with $16MM guaranteed. It would be a nice payday for Avril, a fair deal for the Seahawks, and a way for the team to show how similarly it values the two key pieces on its defensive line.

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