The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
In pulling out a 31-26 win over the NFC East rival Redskins on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys improved to 10-1 and became the first team in the NFL this year to reach double-digit victories. Most of Dallas’ success has come thanks to an elite offense fronted by a dominant line and two sensational rookies – fourth-round quarterback Dak Prescott and first-round running back Ezekiel Elliott.
As those who pay any attention to the league know, Prescott was only supposed to be a temporary fill-in while Tony Romo recovered from an August back injury. The 23-year-old instead stole the four-time Pro Bowler’s job and has combined for 23 touchdowns (18 passing, five rushing) against two interceptions. Thanks to Prescott’s stinginess, the Cowboys are tied for first in the league in giveaways per game (0.6).
While Prescott’s resounding early success has come as a shock, Elliott has been as advertised. The former Ohio State star went fourth overall because his greatness with the Buckeyes was supposed to transfer to the pros, which it has. Elliott entered Thursday as the league’s rushing leader, and he increased his advantage over second-place DeMarco Murray – a former Cowboy – with a 97-yard performance. Elliott is now up to 1,199 yards on a league-high 243 carries, and he ranks second in the sport in rushing touchdowns (11).
With so much going for them on offense – including tight end Jason Witten, receivers Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley and, should something happen to Prescott, the league’s premier backup QB (Romo) – it doesn’t appear an attack that entered Thursday first in DVOA is going to fade down the stretch. The Cowboys’ defense is another matter, though: While the unit has given up a fairly meager 19.4 points per game – good for 10th in the league – it’s a distant 22nd in yards allowed per contest, and 25th in both DVOA and takeaways per game (0.9). Dallas’ work against the pass has been especially problematic, and its ineptitude was on display when it allowed Redskins signal-caller Kirk Cousins to complete 41 of 53 passes for 449 yards and three touchdowns on Thursday. The Cowboys also failed to sack Cousins, and have taken down opposing QBs only 20 times.
One thing the Cowboys’ defense has going for it – and one thing that helps explain the team’s lack of points surrendered – is that it doesn’t spend much time on the field. Dallas’ offense leads the league in time of possession (33:12 per game), as Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today noted Friday, thereby taking even more pressure off a less-than-stellar defense. That formula has worked swimmingly so far, but it could backfire in the playoffs against a team like the 7-2-1 Seahawks – who rank in the league’s top 10 in both offensive and DVOA and might stand as the Cowboys’ top competition in the NFC.
The likes of the Patriots (8-2), Raiders (8-2) and defending champion Broncos (7-3) are among those that should also be in the discussion for the league’s No. 1 team, though any of them would only serve as a hindrance to the Cowboys in a potential Super Bowl matchup. Having to face one of those teams this season would be a welcome task for Dallas, whose latest Super Bowl appearance came in a January 1996 win over the Steelers.
As things stand, the Cowboys are on track for a first-round bye in the postseason and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That indicates that they’re the league’s preeminent team, but do you fully buy into their nearly spotless record? Are they the current Super Bowl favorites?
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
The Week 10 slate of NFL games might be the best lineup of the entire season, as multiple contests feature contending clubs vying for postseason berths. With so much on the line, which matchup is the most important?
For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Patriots and Cowboys are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Browns, Jaguars, Bears, and others will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.
But for other clubs, Week 10 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:
Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. While Cowboys/Steelers and Seahawks/Patriots figure to be exciting contests, they won’t impact the playoff chances of at least one team involved. Similarly, Texans-Jaguars and 49ers-Cardinals only affect the odds for one club, and project to be one-sided games.
It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Falcons — who face a 12.3% PPL — lose to the Eagles on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 80% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Bengals, while facing a similar PPL to the Falcons (18.1%), will have less than a one-in-five chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Giants. If Cincinnati wins, that number rises to about 35%.
So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Bengals/Giants the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Broncos/Saints, mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!
We’re halfway through the 2016 regular season, so let’s turn our attention to the offseason for a moment and take a look at the first installment of our 2017 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings. This list is comprised only of upcoming unrestricted free agents, and is ranked by projected guaranteed money. For more, check out our master list of all 2017 free agents.
1. Kirk Cousins, QB: Cousins isn’t the best overall player on this list, but because of the nature of the quarterback position, he should easily secure the most guaranteed money on the open market next spring. While Cousins started the season slow as the Redskins limped to an 0-2 record, he’s rebounded over the past six games, completing two-thirds of his pass attempts for 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. On the season, Cousins ranks eighth in yards per attempt, and — if you prefer advanced metrics — seventh in DYAR and ninth in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Given that his numbers are nearly in line with his 2015 statistics, Washington might very well franchise tag him again, albeit at a cost of more than $23MM. Alternatively, Cousins should target in excess of $40MM guaranteed in free agency.
2. Chandler Jones, LB/DE: Days after acquiring Jones in exchange for a second-round pick in March, Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians expressed confidence that his club would be able to re-sign its new edge rusher for 2017 and beyond. “When he hits free agency, we’ll have the dollars to make sure he stays,” said Arians. With more than $37MM in projected 2017 cap space, Arizona should be able to keep Jones, and they’ve already begun discussing an extension. Jones, 26, started out the season hot with a sack in each of the first four games, and while he’s cooled in terms of quarterback takedowns, he still ranks as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 3 edge defender. Olivier Vernon‘s five-year, $85MM deal ($52MM guaranteed) should be Jones’ target.
3. Alshon Jeffery, WR: Like Cousins, Jeffery is playing out the 2016 campaign on a one-year franchise tag, earning a salary of more than $14.5MM. While dealing with subpar quarterback play in Chicago, Jeffery is still posting a solid season, as his 16.2 yards per catch not only ranks 13th in the NFL, but is the best figure of Jeffery’s career. As usual, the 26-year-old Jeffery has been dinged up this season, but he’s managed to avoid missing a single game. Back in June, Bears general manager Ryan Pace said he was optimistic the club could extend Jeffery after the season, but given that Jeffery’s only other positional competition on the free agent market will be a converted quarterback (Terrelle Pryor) and a receiver who has face-planted in 2016 (Michael Floyd), he should easily top $14MM per annum.
4. Kawann Short, DT: With only two sacks through seven games, Short probably isn’t going to match his 2015 total of 11 quarterback takedowns, but he’s still been a highly effective presence on the interior of Carolina’s defensive line. The Panthers’ front four ranks in the top ten in both run and pass defense, according to FO, and Short has been a large part of that success, grading as the 10th-best defensive tackle in the NFL, per PFF. With quick passing attacks becoming more popular around the league, the ability to generate interior pressure is more important than ever. Short can provide just that, and should be able to secure a hefty contract after being unable to work out a deal with Carolina over the offseason.
5. Jamie Collins, LB: Collins’ contract status has been the subject of much discussion after he was traded from the Patriots to the Browns last week — while Collins has disputed that he wants “Von Miller” money (six years, $114.5MM), other reports have indicated that Collins wants to beat Luke Kuechly‘s $12.36MM annual salary. Despite insinuations that Collins was “freelancing” on New England’s defense, he’s still a highly talented player against both the run and pass, and if Cleveland opts to use him as more of a pure edge rusher, he could be in line for an even larger contract. The Browns haven’t talked contract with Collins yet, but there’s almost no chance they’ll let him go after sacrificing a conditional third-rounder to acquire him.
6. Melvin Ingram, LB: A former first-round pick, Ingram finally blossomed in 2015, when he started all 16 games and registered 10.5 sacks, good for 12th in the NFL. Injuries had limited Ingram in seasons prior, and it wasn’t minor ailments that sidelined him — an ACL injury wiped out most of his 2013 campaign, while a hip issue caused him to miss six games in 2014. But after proving his health last year and thus far in 2016, Ingram should be able to garner a nice deal on the open market, as edge rushers are often in short supply. For what it’s worth, Ingram changed agents this summer, opting to join Roc Nation.
7. Dont’a Hightower, LB: Now that two other players on this list — Jones and Collins — have been shipped out by Bill Belichick & Co., the Patriots seem to be indicating that Hightower is the man they want to keep around. Hightower, 26, was reportedly one of several Patriots who were offered team-friendly deals by the club earlier this year, but no agreement has been reached to this point. Officially elected as a captain prior to this season, Hightower is viewed as a leader of New England’s defense, and has graded as the No. 7 off-ball LB in 2016, according to PFF, which ranks him as the best pass-rushing inside ‘backer in the league.
8. Kevin Zeitler, G: Zeitler placed a Week 1 deadline on extension talks with the Bengals, and given that no deal came to fruition, he’ll reach the free agent market next spring barring the franchise tag (which is highly unlikely for a guard). Cincinnati has already committed to its other guard, Clint Boling, re-signing him to a four-year deal prior to the 2015 campaign, so it’s unclear if the club would hand money to another interior lineman. But Zeitler has been the mark of consistency since being drafted in the first round of the 2012 draft, and should score a large contract wherever he lands. Fellow guard T.J. Lang will be his primary competition in free agency, but at 26, Zeitler is more than two years younger than the Green Bay lineman.
9. 
A.J. Bouye, CB: Perhaps the first surprise on this list, Bouye has become a breakout star in his fourth NFL season, grading as PFF’s No. 1 overall cornerback. The concerns are obvious: Bouye has started all of 12 games during his four-year career, andhas only started half of Houston’s games this season. And he’ll face a lot of positional competition in free agency, as Trumaine Johnson, Stephon Gilmore, and Morris Claiborne will be among the other corners on the open market. But at 25, Bouye is younger than all of those options, and could see earnings based on his upside. Peter King of TheMMQB.com recently predicted Bouye could get $8MM annually as a free agent.
10. Le’Veon Bell, RB: Listing a running back on a ranking such as this is typically anathema, as backs simply don’t earn in free agency, regardless of their talent level. Bell could be different, however, as his ability both as a runner and as a pass-catcher is exceedingly valuable in today’s NFL. The risks are there: injuries and suspensions litter Bell’s career, and many clubs might be wary of locking him up. But it only takes one team to envision what Bell could add to its offense, and subsequently sign him to an expensive deal. The Steelers aren’t currently negotiating with him, but Bell should be able to surpass the $15MM guaranteed that Doug Martin received last offseason.
Others considered: Eric Berry, Calais Campbell, Stephon Gilmore, Tony Jefferson, Trumaine Johnson, T.J. Lang, Nick Perry, Dontari Poe, Ryan Schraeder.
Even though the defending Super Bowl champions are a member of the AFC West, the division’s prospects looked extremely cloudy heading into the 2016 division. In PFR’s preseason predictions, three writers picked the Chiefs to take the division crown, with the Raiders and Broncos picking up two and one vote(s), respectively. Additionally, four of six PFR writers projected an AFC West club to claim a Wild Card berth.
And thus far, the division is still up for grabs — the Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers all rank in the top half of the NFL in DVOA, while Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City all have better than a two-thirds chance of making the postseason, according to Football Outsiders (all statistics current through Week 8). In Week 9, the Chiefs have already posted a victory, the Chargers are leading the Titans, and the Broncos and Raiders will square off in an extremely important Sunday night contest.
Each of the four teams in the division has an area where they could improve, including the two clubs who will play tonight. While Denver’s defense is once again one of the best in the league, its offense ranks just 21st in DVOA. Much of that struggle can be attributed to quarterback Trevor Siemian, but the Broncos’ offensive line play has also been poor. Oakland, meanwhile, has posted excellent offensive numbers, but its defense is giving up more than 410 yards per game, 31st in the NFL.
The Chiefs are using the Denver model (20th in offensive DVOA, ninth in defensive DVOA), and are dealing with an injury to their quarterback, Alex Smith. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been impressive based on raw totals, but on an efficiency basis, the club ranks 29th in the league. 
San Diego’s defense is also playing well, as is Philip Rivers, but the Chargers could use more help from their offensive line, which ranks in the bottom-third of the NFL in both run- and pass-blocking, per FO.
Tonight’s game will have a large impact on both Denver and Oakland’s playoff odds: as Brian Burke of ESPN.com tweets, the Broncos are facing a 15.9% probability leverage (change in chance of making the postseason based on the results of this week’s game), while the Raiders are staring down a 26.2% PL. The Chiefs and Chargers were looking at a 21.2% and 13.6% change, respectively.
So, what do you think? Will Broncos hold on to defend their division title? Will the upstart Raiders upend them? Will the uber-consistent Chiefs take over? Or will the Chargers surprise everyone and storm back to take the crown? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comments section!
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
At the outset of the season, the NFC South wasn’t supposed to look as wide open as it currently does. Back then, the Panthers were the clear-cut favorites after going 15-1 last year and rolling through the NFC playoffs en route to a Super Bowl berth. The 2016 Panthers are a far cry from the 2015 version, though, as reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton and the rest of the team have fallen to earth amid a 2-5 start. Carolina is in last place in the division, trailing two 3-4 rivals (the Buccaneers and Saints) and the 5-3 Falcons. More alarming, perhaps, is that the Panthers have already lost to all three of those clubs this year, giving them that much more ground to make up in the race.
The Falcons, led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan, superstar wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Devonta Freeman, are 2-1 in the division and boast its only positive point differential (plus-31). They’re also facing the Buccaneers, who are 2-0 in the NFC South, on Thursday in a crucial divisional battle. A win would make the Falcons all the more difficult to catch, while a victory for the Bucs would vault Jameis Winston & Co. to .500 and keep them perfect against their closest rivals. A Falcons defeat would also cause flashbacks to last season, when the club collapsed after a 6-1 start to finish 8-8. This year’s Falcons began 4-1 and are now in danger of dropping three of four, though their fifth overall ranking in Football Outsiders’ DVOA seemingly indicates they’re for real. Nobody else in the division is even in the top 20 in that metric.
The Saints are at No. 23, but they’ve come around in the standings after an 0-3 start and will reach the .500 mark for the first time this season if they beat the lowly 49ers on Sunday. In their signature victory of the year, the Saints upset the Seahawks, 25-20, last Sunday. That was already the sixth one-score game of 2016 for the Saints, who have gone 3-3 in those contests. That’s also true of the Falcons, while the Bucs have recorded a 2-1 mark in one-score affairs and the Panthers have logged an 0-3 record.
While Atlanta and New Orleans are defensively challenged, both have tremendous offenses and top-tier quarterbacks in Ryan and Drew Brees. Conversely, Tampa Bay and Carolina haven’t done anything at an elite level this year. Barring offensive or defensive turnarounds, that would seem to put each behind the 8-ball, though Newton showed in 2015 that he’s capable of performing like an unstoppable force. Given their general decline this year, the Panthers will need Newton to resemble his 2015 self over the season’s final nine games if they’re going to win the division for the fourth straight year. If not, one of the other clubs should finally dethrone Carolina atop the NFC South.
The 2016 NFL trade deadline is just hours away. This is the last chance of the season for contending teams to deal for a key piece for the playoff push and final opportunity for rebuilding clubs to make a future-minded deal. This year, there are a number of players who have been mentioned in trade rumors that could be changing jerseys between now and the 4pm ET/3pm CT deadline.
Naturally, cap room will be as much of a factor for teams as their positional needs. As Albert Breer of The MMQB (Twitter links) outlines, some teams have a great deal of space to work with while others have very little. The Browns, 49ers, Jaguars, and Titans all have enough cap space to acquire just about any contract. The Chargers, Rams, and Vikings, meanwhile, all have less than $1MM of room to work with.
Historically, the NFL trade deadline hasn’t brought a ton of action, but yesterday we saw a surprise blockbuster go down when the Patriots traded linebacker Jamie Collins to the Browns. We just might be in store for more major news today.
Here’s a rundown of the big names that have been mentioned in trade rumors over the past couple of weeks:
Browns OT Joe Thomas: Thomas, a lifelong member of the Browns, has made it clear that he does not want to be traded. Coach Hue Jackson flatly said that the tackle would not be dealt between now and the deadline. Still, rival GMs aren’t so sure that top exec Sashi Brown won’t pull the trigger on a deal anyway. 
The Browns remain winless and it only makes sense that the team would explore dealing Thomas for draft considerations. However, the Browns already have quite a stockpile and they even drew from that surplus yesterday to acquire linebacker Jamie Collins from the Patriots. All month long, there has been talk of Cleveland selling off its parts with an eye on 2017 and beyond. Now, one has to wonder if A. they are still inclined to sell and B. they could even look to acquire name players this afternoon.
The Giants have expressed interest in Thomas, but they get the impression that Cleveland is going to hold on to him. The Vikings, Colts, Seahawks, Cardinals, Broncos, and Patriots could also use some help up front, but it’s not clear which of those clubs have reached out. Previous reports have indicated that the Browns were seeking a second-round choice for the veteran, but teams might have to sweeten the pot further if they are truly leaning towards keeping him.
Browns CB Joe Haden: Teams are reportedly scouting Haden in advance of the deadline. Once regarded as one of the league’s best young corners, Haden has been slowed by injuries in recent years. Any team that would take on Haden and his considerable salary wants to know exactly where he stands with his ankle, hamstring, and other assorted maladies.
At the midway point of the season, Pro Football Focus has Haden ranked as the 29th best corner in the NFL. That indicates Haden is an above-average starter, but not an elite player at the position. Haden is in year two of his five-year, $67.5MM extension and a cornerback-needy team like the Dolphins could explore a deal. But, as with Thomas, it’s not clear if the Browns are willing to sell. Haden is under contract through 2019 and won’t turn 28 until April. There’s not much he can do for the Browns in 2016, but he could still be a vital piece going forward.
In related news, the Browns are reportedly open to trading fellow corner Tramon Williams. The Packers are thin at cornerback and a reunion would make a lot of sense.
David Johnson has made a name for himself as one of the very best running backs in the NFL today. Less well known is Cardinals running backs coach Stump Mitchell, the man who is responsible for developing Johnson into an elite offensive weapon. Pro Football Rumors has learned that Mitchell is now in the final year of his contract and he is aiming to take on a larger role next season. 
Mitchell hopes to remain with the Cardinals, agent Burton Rocks tells PFR, but Rocks also believes that he is capable of a higher title. Rocks says he could conceivably pitch Mitchell as an associate head coach, offensive coordinator, and even head coaching candidate this offseason. It’s also possible that Mitchell could entertain D-I head coaching job offers if the right one comes along.
Mitchell, of course, has deep ties to the Cardinals after spending his entire nine-year career with the organization. The 57-year-old holds the franchise record in all-purpose yards and is second all-time in rushing yards. Now, he has Johnson on track to eventually leapfrog him in the history books. There’s no sign of a staff shakeup in Arizona, but the Cardinals could theoretically promote Mitchell without displacing another coach. For example, Tom Moore holds the title of assistant head coach on offense, but the soon-to-be 78-year-old could choose to return to a less demanding consulting role.
Before joining up with the Cardinals in 2013, Mitchell was the longtime running backs coach of the Seahawks and also spent two seasons as the Redskins’ running backs coach/associate head coach. He also has college head coaching experience with Morgan State and Southern University. In addition to David Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Andre Ellington, Mitchell’s running back resume also includes the likes of Ricky Waters, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, and Mike Sellers.
As Johnson terrorizes opposing defenses, the timing could not be better for Mitchell to reach free agency. If the Cardinals’ ground game continues to produce, the veteran coach could have an opportunity to climb the NFL coaching ladder in the New Year.
