PFR Originals News & Rumors

PFR Originals: 10/2/16 – 10/9/16

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Poll: Which QB Should 49ers Start In Week 6?

In Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick and Christian Ponder, the 49ers have three quarterbacks who were high picks in the 2011 draft, yet the 1-4 club finds itself in an unenviable position under center. Gabbert and Ponder, both of whom were first-rounders, have never lived up to their respective draft choices. Conversely, Kaepernick has his share of accomplishments since the 49ers used a second-rounder on him, but the 28-year-old’s effectiveness has fallen off in recent seasons.

Blaine Gabbert

Just as he did in Jacksonville, where he spent the first three seasons of his career, Gabbert is failing in San Francisco. Gabbert won the starting job over the summer, but he’s now at risk of losing the role thanks to his substandard output thus far. After the 49ers’ 33-21 loss to the Cardinals on Thursday, when Gabbert completed 18-of-31 passes for 162 yards, a touchdown and an interception, head coach Chip Kelly left the door open for a change at quarterback.

The assumption is that Kaepernick will grab the reins if Kelly demotes Gabbert, but multiple 49ers offensive players have told Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com that they’d like Ponder to take over. The 12th selection in his draft class (two picks after Gabbert), Ponder garnered plenty of experience with the Vikings from 2011-14, though he didn’t exactly light it up. In 38 appearances (36 starts), Ponder completed a below-average 59.8 percent of passes, averaged an underwhelming 6.3 yards per attempt, and tossed 38 touchdowns against 36 picks in Minnesota. Those numbers are almost identical to the totals Gabbert has posted during his 42-appearance, 40-start career (56.3 completion percentage, 6.0 YPA, 38 TDs versus 37 INTs).

It’s clear that Kaepernick, who lost his job to Gabbert last year as he battled injuries and a decline in performance, has the best credentials of any 49ers quarterback. But his days as a quality option may have concluded with his season-ending interception in the 49ers’ 23-17 NFC title game loss to Seattle in January 2014. The once-electrifying dual threat has been mediocre to worse since, though it might be worthwhile for the Kelly to see if he can help the sixth-year man recapture the form he showed off in his first season and a half at the Niners’ helm. Of course, it’s questionable whether Kaepernick is physically ready to get back on the field after surgeries to his left knee, left shoulder and right thumb stopped him from experiencing a normal offseason.

The offensive-minded Kelly previously drew career-best performances from Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford in Philadelphia, but it doesn’t appear he’ll do the same with Gabbert in San Francisco. Kelly has two other (flawed) choices on hand, though, and with extra time to prepare for the 49ers’ Week 6 visit to Buffalo, a shakeup could happen.

Which QB Should SF Start In Week 6?
Colin Kaepernick 48.81% (1,581 votes)
Christian Ponder 43.59% (1,412 votes)
Blaine Gabbert 7.59% (246 votes)
Total Votes: 3,239

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 9/25/16 – 10/2/16

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • We posted our master list of 2017 NFL Free Agents. Every player that is currently on a roster and doesn’t have a contract for next season is listed, as well as a few other notable names that aren’t on a team at the moment. Be sure to bookmark the list so you’re well prepared when the offseason begins.
  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.

2017 NFL Free Agents

Pro Football Rumors’ up-to-date list of 2017 NFL free agents is below. These are players who are eligible for restricted or unrestricted free agency after the 2016 season. The player’s 2017 age is in parentheses. Players are generally sorted by the position at which they played most in ’16, or the position at which their most recent team listed them.

Players who are currently on an NFL roster but don’t have a contract for 2017 are listed below, along with a few other notable free agents who aren’t on a roster at the moment.

Players eligible for restricted free agency are marked with (R), while non-exclusive franchise and transition players will be marked with (F) and (T) respectively. Exclusive rights free agents are not included. All other free agents are assumed to be unrestricted.

If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us. For instant free agent updates, be sure to follow us on Twitter @pfrumors.

Updated 12-5-17 (9:20am CT)

Quarterbacks

Bruce Gradkowski (34)
Robert Griffin III (27)
Shaun Hill (37)
Josh Johnson (31)
Colin Kaepernick (29)
Luke McCown (36)
Matt McGloin (27)
Zach Mettenberger (26)
Ryan Nassib (27)
Christian Ponder (29)
Sean Renfree (27)
Connor Shaw (26)
Charlie Whitehurst (35)

Running Backs

Bralon Addison (23)
Antonio Andrews (26)
Dri Archer (26)
Joe Banyard (28)
Reggie Bush (32)
Ka’Deem Carey (25)
Knile Davis (26)
Shaun Draughn (29)
George Farmer (24)
Jonathan Grimes (27)
DuJuan Harris (29)
Tim Hightower (31)
Ronnie Hillman (26)
Rashad Jennings (32)
Chris Johnson (32)
Tre Mason (24)
Ryan Mathews (29)
Dexter McCluster (29)
Darren McFadden (30)
Bernard Pierce (27)
Bobby Rainey (30)
Chase Reynolds (30)
Daryl Richardson (27)
Stevan Ridley (28)
Denard Robinson (27)
Khiry Robinson (27)
C.J. Spiller (30)
James Starks (31)
Lorenzo Taliaferro (25)
Stepfan Taylor (26)
Juwan Thompson (25)
Terrell Watson (24)
Trey Watts (26)
DeAngelo Williams (34)
Karlos Williams (24)
Read more

Poll: Which 0-2 Team Is Likeliest To Rebound?

Three-quarters of NFL teams have picked up at least one win this season, leaving eight stragglers that have begun 2016 with back-to-back losses. Historically, clubs that have lost their first two games haven’t rebounded to make postseason trips often. In fact, since the league expanded and reorganized its divisions in 2002, only 12 of 116 teams that have started a season 0-2 have gone on to earn playoff berths. Two of those occurrences came last season, with the Seahawks rallying to finish 10-4 and the Texans going 9-5 over their final 14 games.

Of the teams that are currently 0-2, Cleveland stands out as the one with no realistic chance to recover. As a club in a full-blown rebuild, the Browns were completely written off entering the season, and they’ve since lost their top two quarterbacks – Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown – and No. 1 receiver Corey Coleman to significant injuries.

Elsewhere, the Bears, Bills, Dolphins and Saints faced long odds to contend coming into the year, and their chances have worsened during the first two weeks.

The Bears are stuck in a tough NFC North with the Vikings and Packers, both of whom made the playoffs in 2015. Of greater concern, perhaps, is that injuries are hampering Chicago, which will go without quarterback Jay Cutler, linebacker Danny Trevathan and nose tackle Eddie Goldman for multiple weeks. Meanwhile, linebacker Lamarr Houston is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Buffalo, which has gone a league-worst 16 straight seasons without a playoff trip, is seemingly in shambles in Year 2 of the Rex Ryan era. Ryan fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman last Friday, the same day Bills ownership had a Ryan-less meeting with several of the team’s players. Previously, the Bills dropped winnable games against the Ravens and Jets, which doesn’t bode well for a team whose next two opponents – the Cardinals and Patriots – are elite.

The Dolphins, who are among the Bills’ AFC East rivals, began with an unkind schedule over the first two weeks. They had to go to Seattle and New England, where they lost close affairs. Miami’s next opponent is the aforementioned Browns, who are primed to start third-round rookie Cody Kessler under center. On paper, the Dolphins look likely to win their home opener, but few expect rookie head coach Adam Gase & Co. to make any real noise in the standings this year.

Like the Dolphins, the Saints have started 2016 with back-to-back one-score losses, including a 35-34 opener that the Raiders won with a late two-point conversion. New Orleans hasn’t necessarily played poorly, and it still has a high-powered offense, but a defense that already had issues coming into the year has since lost starting cornerbacks Delvin Breaux and P.J. Williams to major injuries.

In the AFC South, there were preseason cases made for both the Colts or Jaguars to contend for a divisional crown, but things haven’t gone according to plan for either.

Indianapolis moved the ball with ease through the air in Week 1 against the Lions, but its defense was woeful in a 39-35 loss. Then, in last week’s 34-20 defeat in Denver, quarterback Andrew Luck was ineffective. After missing most of last season with various injuries, he has been dealing with a shoulder issue throughout this season.

The Jaguars made several hyped offseason moves and entered the season with high expectations for a franchise that hasn’t won more than five games in a season since 2010. They played the Packers to the wire in Week 1, losing 27-23, but looked like the same old Jags on Sunday in a 38-14 defeat in San Diego.

Of this year’s winless crop, only the Redskins made the playoffs last season. Washington went 9-7 en route to an NFC East title, and the division once again looks like anyone’s to win, but the team won’t have a chance without quarterback Kirk Cousins regaining something resembling the form he showed in the second half of 2015. The Cousins-led Redskins will go on the road Sunday to face the division-rival Giants, who are 2-0. It’s foolish to use the phrase “must-win game” in Week 3, but Washington’s matchup with Big Blue comes close.

As mentioned, the Browns and Dolphins play each other this week. Barring a tie, then, one will break into the win column. The other six face teams that have gone 1-1 or better, and all could remain without a victory through Week 3. Notably, no club has started 0-3 and made the playoffs since the 1998 Bills. First things first, though, which of these eight stands the best chance to make a playoff run this season?

Which 0-2 Team Is Likeliest To Recover?
Colts 27.45% (728 votes)
Saints 18.44% (489 votes)
Redskins 15.87% (421 votes)
Dolphins 13.39% (355 votes)
Jaguars 13.08% (347 votes)
Bills 5.39% (143 votes)
Bears 4.07% (108 votes)
Browns 2.30% (61 votes)
Total Votes: 2,652

 

PFR Originals: 9/11/16 – 9/18/16

The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Ben Levine took an expansive look at the Los Angeles Rams’ offseason in PFR’s Offseason in Review series as the team began its second stint in southern California.
  • To wrap up PFR’s Impact Rookies series, Dave-Te Thomas reviewed three NFC West teams’ first-year contingents. Examined this week:
  • In advance of the AFC East’s first two tilts pitting its teams against one another this week, I asked readers who will win the division this year. While the Patriots have claimed this championship in each of the past season seasons — making them the only team to reign supreme over its division throughout the 2010s — the Jets have played well thus far, and the Dolphins gave the Pats all they can handle today, albeit without Tom Brady. Vote who you think will emerge with a home playoff game out of this quartet.
  • Zach Links took a look at how the NFL altered the IR format in 2016. One of the many pieces in PFR’s glossary, this focuses on the new wrinkle that eliminated the IR-DTR distinction. Teams now have more options regarding how they handle their IR list.
  • Zach also rounded up the latest edition of the Pigskin Links, with pieces on Brady and Kirk Cousins populating the space this week.

PFR Glossary: Injured Reserve

As has been the case throughout the preseason and season so far, we saw several key players moved to teams’ injured reserve lists this week. Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen, Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, and Browns QB Robert Griffin III are among the players who landed on the IR recently, opening up a spot on their clubs’ active rosters for their teams to replace them. Keenan Allen (Vertical)

The injured reserve designation is generally – though not always – used for players who will be out for the season. That’s not the case for every player who lands on injured reserve though. Particularly during the preseason, we see players who weren’t part of their teams’ long-term plans hit the IR list, only to be cut several days later. Generally, these cases involve players who aren’t suffering from season-ending injuries, and receive injury settlements from their respective clubs in order to release those clubs from any liability.

For instance, let’s say a player is injured during the final week of the preseason with a high ankle sprain, and the player and team both agree that the injury will sideline him for three weeks. The club could place that player on injured reserve, then cut him with a two-week regular-season injury settlement (since the final preseason week is also taken into account). That would allow the player to receive 2/17ths of his season salary, and allow him to look for work with a new club when he gets healthy. If the club were to keep the player on injured reserve rather than removing him with a settlement, it would be required to cut him when he gets healthy.

Teams who release a player from IR with a settlement are eligible to re-sign that player later in the season, if they so choose. But they must wait three weeks, on top of the time of the initial settlement. In that previous example then, a club would have to wait until after Week 8 to re-sign the player with the high ankle sprain.

Players who remain on their clubs’ injured reserve lists all season continue to receive their full salary, which also counts against their teams’ salary caps. The Browns, for example, have tons of traditional dead money on the books thanks to the contracts of Dwayne Bowe, Barkevious Mingo, Donte Whitner, Johnny Manziel, and others. But, they’re also effectively carrying dead money for Griffin, who carries a $5MM+ cap number for the 2016 season.

In some instances, players agree to “split contracts” when they sign with a club, which means that the player will receive a smaller salary if he lands on injured reserve. Split contracts, which are worth less than the active roster minimum salaries, are fairly rare, and are primarily signed by undrafted rookies or veterans with injury histories.

One additional quirk related to the injured reserve list is the option each team has to bring one player back from the IR list. Previously, the rule stipulated that a team had to designate one specific player for return later on in the season. Thanks to a rule change proposed by the Bills this offseason, however, the IR-DTR spot is no more. Instead, a team can bring any player back from IR, though that player must be on IR for a minimum of six weeks before practicing and can return to game action after a total of eight weeks. Once a team uses this designation once, it can’t use it again that season.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier post by PFR editor emeritus Luke Adams. Our glossary posts explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC East?

Of all the NFL’s divisions, the AFC East has offered the least in terms of parity during the 2010s. Every other NFL division has featured at least two teams claiming a title and this one still features a Patriots team that will deploy the Bill BelichickTom Brady duo for a large chunk of the season.

[RELATED: PFR’s Impact Rookies Series]

The Patriots have won seven straight AFC East crowns and 13 of the past 16. New England is set to return its 39-year-old future Hall of Fame quarterback in Week 5, where he’ll again team with one of the best tight ends in NFL history. Still, Rob Gronkowski has yet to make his 2016 debut yet and the Pats still have questions on defense due to injuries, suspensions, and the trade of Chandler Jones. However, the Jimmy Garoppolo-led outfit still showed enough to beat one of the league’s best teams in Week 1 despite a host of key inactives.

Both the Jets and Dolphins upset the Patriots last season to deprive them of home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, and each played a returning playoff team close in Week 1. Last season’s second-place finisher, the Jets bring back arguably the best defensive line in football and, after some arduous negotiations, they have Ryan Fitzpatrick back on the other side of the ball.

The most recent non-Patriots division champion (in 2008), the Dolphins continue their first season under offensive wunderkind Adam Gase with a trip to Massachusetts on Sunday. The Fins haven’t made the playoffs since that ’08 campaign but added veterans in Arian Foster and Mario Williams, and drafted once-projected No. 1 pick Laremy Tunsil in Round 1.

Despite finishing with at least eight wins the past two seasons, the Bills own the longest playoff drought in football at 17 years. Their offseason extension for Tyrod Taylor and re-signing of Richie Incognito became overshadowed by a host of suspensions, injuries, and cuts.

So, in advance of the AFC East’s first matchups, who will win the division this season?

Who Will Win The AFC East?
New England Patriots 76.11% (1,274 votes)
New York Jets 14.34% (240 votes)
Miami Dolphins 7.47% (125 votes)
Buffalo Bills 2.09% (35 votes)
Total Votes: 1,674

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR’s Impact Rookies Series

All summer long, longtime scouting consultant Dave-Te Thomas of The NFL Draft Report has been breaking down the draft class of every team in the league and identifying the players that can immediately make a difference. The Impact Rookies series, which wrapped up today with a look at the Seahawks, provides unique insight to this year’s NFL freshman class from a veteran guru who worked closely with several teams around the league leading up to the draft.

Here is the full rundown of the Impact Rookies series:

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West 

Impact Rookies: San Francisco 49ers

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Out of eleven selections, we here at The NFL Draft Report only see one 49ers draft pick making a significant mark in 2016.

First Round – DeForest Buckner, DL (Oregon, No. 7 overall)

A “tall drink of water” at a shade over 6:07, Buckner entered the 2015 bowl season having produced 225 tackles (104 solos) that included seventeen sacks (eleventh on the school career-record chart) for -118 yards. His 34.5 stops-for-loss ranked ninth in Oregon history, good for losses of 154 yards. Additionally, he registered thirty quarterback pressures, with six of those hurries causing interceptions, as Oregon converted those turnovers into touchdown drives. He also caused three fumbles and recovered two others that led to Ducks scores. DeForest Buckner

Buckner has outstanding size and a developing frame, adding fifteen pounds of solid muscle mass to it during the 2015 off-season. He has a solid upper body frame, with a wide back, long arms, good lower body strength and room on his frame for additional growth. He has broad shoulders, good bubble, thick thighs and a tight waist. He has a very long torso, arms and legs. A well-proportioned athlete with good upper body muscle development, he has good shoulder size and width, large hands, good bubble, thick thighs, and calves.

The Oregon standout has incredible moves off the edge and can change direction immediately. Buckner shows very good hip strike on contact and is a normal strider who plays with leverage and above average body quickness. He has the burst to penetrate and balance much like a linebacker. Buckner can be an “elephant” (hybrid rush end/linebacker) or just a tenacious defensive end with a high motor and excellent intensity.

From a sheer strength point, Buckner has more natural power than you would expect. He generates a good jolt in his hips and hands to rock the offensive tackle back on his heels during the bull rush. He has more than enough speed and explosion to get an edge. Despite his size, he is stronger than he looks, as he plays with leverage and keeps his pads down, making it tough to block him head-on. He rarely ever gets washed by some down blocks, as he can simply overpower his opponent when heading up the gut (see 2015 Washington, California, Arizona State, and Stanford games). He is best coming off the edge, but he has that long reach and strong hand punch to play off the offensive tackle and quickly locate the ball in backside pursuit. In 33 games of film view, he has never been widened or steered away from the play in any phase.

Last season, Buckner honed his wrap-up tackling technique and became more explosive in that area. The 6’7″, 287 pound athlete is fun to watch as he stalks, chases, wraps, and drags down the ball carrier, as he looks like a spider engulfing the ball carrier to get a piece of the opponent’s body. When he is closing on the quarterback, he shows even more explosion. He is best in open quarters, but he has more than enough power to battle in-line.

As a rookie, Buckner is being slotted in as a starting defensive end in the Niners’ 3-4 alignment. With 2015 first-round pick Arik Armstead at the other bookend and 26-year-old Quinton Dial in the middle, this is a young defensive line that will grow together. Expect Buckner to impress right out of the gate and show the world why he was a Top 10 pick in this year’s draft.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service providing insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, you can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.