PFR’s 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings
The regular season is over and, for most teams, the offseason is underway. Here is the latest installment of our 2017 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings, which is comprised only of upcoming unrestricted free agents, and is ranked by projected guaranteed money. In parentheses next to each player, you’ll find their position in the November edition of the rankings. For more, check out our master list of all 2017 free agents.
1. Kirk Cousins, QB (1): In 2015, Cousins established himself as a solid NFL quarterback. That summer, the Redskins told Cousins they wanted him to prove it all over again before giving him a monster contract. Cousins was happy to oblige and he has now increased his value even further. After a so-so start to 2016 season, Cousins closed out strong to finish as Pro Football Focus’ No. 8 ranked QB, putting him ahead of notables such as Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Philip Rivers. All of those players have gotten their big pay day and now it’s time for Cousins to join the club. 
2. Chandler Jones, LB/DE (2): Before you start salivating over the idea of Jones joining your favorite team’s front seven, we have some bad news: Bruce Arians says the Cardinals will place the franchise tag on him if they cannot agree on a long-term deal. Whether it’s on a one-year, $16.955MM deal or a multi-year contract that tops Olivier Vernon‘s Giants deal, it sounds like Jones is staying put. Jones, 27 in May, played in all 16 games this year and racked up 11 sacks.
3. Kawann Short, DT (4): Contract talks between the Panthers and Short stalled last summer and Fletcher Cox‘s market-boosting deal with the Eagles didn’t help matters. Short wound up playing 2016 for peanuts ($1.473MM) and he turned in yet another stellar season. Short was the fourth-best interior defender in the league this season, per Pro Football Focus, and his 87.7 overall score was roughly the same as his 2015 mark, even though he had five less sacks. In June, it was said that the Panthers did not want to go too far beyond an average annual salary of $15MM. If he’s not franchised tagged or signed to a long-term deal by Carolina, there are a few teams that will happily go beyond that point.
Top 3 Offseason Needs: Buffalo Bills
In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll kick off this year’s series with the Buffalo Bills, who finished 7-9 in 2016 and have now gone a league-worst 17 seasons without a playoff berth.
The Bills have shuffled through seven different full-time head coaches since their most recent postseason trip, and they’re now looking for yet another as a result of Rex Ryan‘s late-December dismissal. Beleaguered general manager Doug Whaley, who’s leading the search, has so far targeted interim head coach Anthony Lynn, Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin and three D-coordinators – Sean McDermott (Panthers), Vance Joseph (Dolphins) and Kris Richard (Seahawks) – as Ryan’s potential successor. Regardless of which candidate Whaley hires, the fifth-year GM will have to make major offseason improvements to a roster that ranked a below-average 19th in the league in DVOA in 2016.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Lorenzo Alexander, LB
- Colt Anderson, S
- Dri Archer, RB (RFA)
- Robert Blanton, S
- Zach Brown, LB
- Reggie Bush, RB
- Corbin Bryant, DL
- Leger Douzable, DE
- IK Enemkpali, LB (RFA)
- Jerome Felton, FB
- Mike Gillislee, RB (RFA)
- Stephon Gilmore, CB
- Marquise Goodwin, WR
- Chris Gragg, TE
- Ryan Groy, C/G (RFA)
- Percy Harvin, WR
- Ramon Humber, LB
- Justin Hunter, WR
- James Ihedigbo, S
- EJ Manuel, QB
- Lerentee McCray, LB
- Jonathan Meeks, S
- Jordan Mills, OT
- Colton Schmidt, P (RFA)
- Brandon Spikes, LB
- Brandon Tate, WR
- Corey White, CB
- Robert Woods, WR
Top 10 Cap Hits For 2017:
- Marcell Dareus, DT: $16,400,000
- Tyrod Taylor, QB: $15,913,334
- Cordy Glenn, LT: $14,200,000
- Jerry Hughes, LB/DE: $10,450,000
- Charles Clay, TE: $9,000,000
- LeSean McCoy, RB: $8,875,000
- Kyle Williams, DT: $8,300,000
- Eric Wood, C: $7,583,333
- Aaron Williams, S: $6,625,000
- Sammy Watkins, WR: $6,343,146
Current Projected Cap Room (via Over the Cap): $25.99MM
Other:
- Tenth overall pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline WR Sammy Watkins’ fifth-year option for 2018
Three Needs:
1.) Make a decision on Tyrod Taylor‘s future: Lackluster quarterback play has been the main staple in Buffalo during its long run of failed seasons, but Taylor has been effective relative to the dreck that preceded him.
In two seasons and 29 games as a starter, the ex-Ravens backup has completed 62.6 percent of passes, tossed 37 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. The 27-year-old has also emerged as the preeminent running quarterback in the league, having piled up 560-plus yards in back-to-back seasons (on a lofty 5.8 per rush) to pair with 10 more scores.
Despite the success Taylor has had at a meager cost, the Bills are planning to move on from him by March 11, the deadline to pick up the $15.5MM option bonus in his contract. By declining that option, the Bills would escape Taylor’s deal – which they awarded him last August – and its remaining guaranteed money ($30.75MM).
Jettisoning Taylor would again put Buffalo on the hunt for a starting signal-caller, though, as backup EJ Manuel will be a free agent (and has no business starting even if he does re-sign) and third-stringer Cardale Jones is nowhere near ready to take the helm. The premier names whose statuses are in limbo entering the offseason are Kirk Cousins, Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo, but none look like realistic possibilities for the Bills. Cousins is likely to either ink a long-term deal with the Redskins or get the franchise tag; Romo, whom the Cowboys could cut, should have more enticing choices than Buffalo; and it’s difficult to imagine the Patriots trading Garoppolo to an AFC East rival. The Pats did send one of Tom Brady‘s previous backups, Drew Bledsoe, to the Bills in 2002 for a first-round selection, but doing that enabled the club to rid itself of Bledsoe’s contract and land a valuable pick for a declining player. The 25-year-old Garoppolo’s best days might be ahead of him, and New England could easily keep him next season at an $820K salary.
After Cousins, Romo and Garoppolo, the potential choices are much more flawed. There’s the Bears’ Jay Cutler, a release candidate, though he’s coming off a bad and injury-plagued year. Chiefs backup Nick Foles is also a cap casualty in waiting, but he hasn’t been any kind of an answer as a starter aside from a fluky 2013 in Philadelphia. Free agents-to-be like Brian Hoyer and Mike Glennon have been career mediocrities, too, while counting on Steelers backup Landry Jones or Bears reserve Matt Barkley would be a sizable risk. The same is true of Bengals No. 2 and trade candidate A.J. McCarron.
Of course, Buffalo could also use a high draft choice – the team is set to pick 10th – on a signal-caller and add a veteran No. 2 (someone like Josh McCown, ex-Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick or Shaun Hill, among others) as competition. The Bills won’t be in position to select the draft’s No. 1-rated quarterback prospect, North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, but Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has Whaley taking Clemson’s Deshaun Watson at 10th overall. The mobile Watson is the most pro-ready QB in this year’s class, opines Miller, who points out his familiarity with ex-Clemson star and No. 1 Bills wideout Sammy Watkins.
The Beat: Chris Tomasson On The Vikings
Now that the regular season is over, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.
This week, we caught up with Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to discuss the Vikings. You can follow Chris on Twitter @christomasson and check out his stories here.
Zach Links: The Vikings have already anointed Sam Bradford as their 2017 starter. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater‘s timetable for return is uncertain and the Vikings must decide on his 2018 option by May 2nd. How do you think they’ll handle the $12.5MM decision? 
Chris Tomasson: It’s a very difficult question to answer since the Vikings know far more about the severity of his injury than they have let on. There would be some surprise from my end if the Vikings don’t pick up the option since it is guaranteed only in the event of injury, and it would have to be a new injury that would guarantee it. Even if Teddy Bridgewater can’t play in 2017, when he has a cap number of $2.18MM, picking up the option could buy time for them to assess his recovery. If the Vikings pick up the option, the big issue could come in March 2018 when the Vikings might have to make a final determination on their quarterback of the future. They can’t pay two quarterbacks a combined total of $30MM or more. At that point, Bridgewater could be released or asked to sign a deal for a lesser figure as a backup.
Zach Links: Recently, Adrian Peterson hinted that he might be open to a pay cut. Do you think he’s ready to take the kind of haircut the Vikings probably have in mind? Wherever he winds up, do you think he can resume playing at a high level?
Chris Tomasson: I think it will depend on what other teams might be willing to offer and how those teams stack up against the Vikings regarding a chance to win a Super Bowl. The Vikings stood by Peterson during his child-abuse situation and coach Mike Zimmer wants him back, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they look to bring him back. I don’t think Peterson is a 1,500-yard-type back anymore, but I think he could gain 1,000 yards for someone. I think he might have to accept a reduction in carries, wherever he might play.
Zach Links: Do you think pending free agent Cordarrelle Patterson will be back with the team next year? Do you see him moving forward as a 
kick return specialist or do you think he can fulfill his potential as an all-around wide receiver?
Chris Tomasson: I think Patterson got enough work at wide receiver this season that he will seriously consider a Vikings offer to return. I would be surprised if another team offered him a big deal to be a starting-caliber wide receiver. While much of it was a product of Minnesota’s short passing game, he averaged just 8.7 yards on his 52 catches. He has said he wants to return to Minnesota, and all I can do is take him at his word.
Zach Links: He’s stayed mum on the subject, but do you expect to see 38-year-old Terence Newman return to the Vikings in 2017?
Chris Tomasson: Terence Newman still can play, there’s no doubt about it. He told me that to return, there has to be certain conditions met, some that are in his control and some that are out of it. He wouldn’t tell me what they are. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, to see Newman back considering he has remained healthy and no serious slippage was evident in 2016. However, I’m sure if he were to return, his snaps would be cut back considering the continued maturation of Trae Waynes.
5 Key Stories: 12/25/16 – 1/1/17
Upheaval in Buffalo… The Bills finally made official what was widely expected, firing head coach Rex Ryan in advance of the club’s final regular season game. Offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn was promoted to interim head coach, and is considered a “virtual lock” to take over the open position on a full-time basis. Doug Whaley, meanwhile, will return as Buffalo’s general manager, and has seemingly already made a decision on quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who was benched for the team’s final game. By sitting Taylor down, the Bills protected themselves from tens of millions in Taylor money becoming guaranteed.
…and Denver… Due to health concerns, Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak is expected to step down after the conclusion of the 2016 season. Kubiak suffered a mini-stroke during a game as the Texans’ head coach, and was forced to miss a game earlier this year while dealing with migraine issues. Whether Kubiak intends to fully retire from the NFL is unclear, but Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is already being bandied about as a candidate for the expected opening.
…and San Francisco. Adam Schefter of ESPN.com reported last night that the 49ers are expected to fire both general manager Trent Baalke and head coach Chip Kelly as part of a complete overhaul of the team’s decision-making structure. Baalke, for his part, confirmed today that he was officially fired on Friday, and supports San Francisco’s reset. Kelly, meanwhile, has not yet corroborated reports of his termination.
Doug Martin sidelined. The Buccaneers chose to bench RB Doug Martin again last week, and we quickly learned why — Martin has been suspended four games for violating the league’s PED policy. Martin had announced prior to the suspension that he was “stepping away” from Tampa Bay, and reports have indicated that he could be seeking help for Adderall usage. The ban will void the remaining guarantees in Martin’s contract, meaning the Bucs could easily part ways if they so choose.
The Browns are on the clock. By losing to the Steelers earlier today, the Browns have officially clinched the first overall pick in the 2017 draft. Cleveland will have its choice of quarterbacks — such as Mitch Trubisky or DeShone Kizer — or could use the pick to select a game-changing edge rusher in Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett. The Browns will also have a pick later in the first round thanks to a trade with the Eagles.
10 Coaching Candidates For The Rams
In an iconic scene from season nine of The Simpsons, Krusty the Klown announced his retirement to a scrum of not-so-stunned reporters. 
“But Krusty,” one reporter asks. “Why now? Why not twenty years ago?”
It wouldn’t have been out of place for any Rams beat reporter to channel that sentiment and ask a similar question of COO Kevin Demoff when he addressed the media on Monday. Jeff Fisher‘s dismissal was long overdue and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone outside of the coach’s family who disagrees.
For now, the Rams will turn things over to special teams coordinator John Fassel on an interim basis. While this is ostensibly a chance for Fassel to impress team brass and land the head coaching job for 2017, most are expecting the Rams to hire a name brand coach that will energize the fan base and give the team some additional panache in free agency.
With a few weeks to go between now and the official end of the Rams’ season, here are ten names that could be considered for the job:
Jim Harbaugh, head coach at the University of Michigan: Some say that living well is the best revenge. Others say that the best revenge against your former employer is setting up shop across the street and destroying them. Santa Clara-to-Los Angeles is a lengthy drive, but you get what we’re getting at.
Harbaugh, in theory, could leave his alma mater and crush the 49ers by joining up with a divisional rival. The Rams have reportedly been loafing in practice and Harbaugh is the kind of throwback disciplinarian that the team badly needs. It’s fair to assume that the Rams will get in contact with Harbaugh, but it will be tough to get him to leave his lucrative job in Ann Arbor.
With National Signing Day around the corner, Harbaugh could publicly remove himself himself from consideration if he is not at all interested in an NFL return. Alternatively, if Harbaugh wants to get sweet revenge against the Niners, Stan Kroenke better have his checkbook ready. Signing Harbaugh could cost upwards of $10MM/year and that’s before factoring in his buyout clause with the Wolverines. If Harbaugh bolts, he’ll owe U-M the prorated portion of his $2MM signing bonus. With two of the seven years served, 5/7ths of that amount comes out to roughly $1.43MM.
Click here to read more from Zach Links..
NFL Spending By Team Over Last Four Seasons
The NFLPA has released the official data on team spending over the last four seasons. The Collective Bargaining Agreement stipulates that each team must utilize 89% of the salary cap over two four-year periods, 2013-16 and 2017-20. As previously reported, the Raiders are the only team that has yet to satisfy that requirement for the closing period. The CBA also requires the league, as a whole, to spend 95% of the cap, in cash, for the same period. That requirement has been easily met.
Here is the full rundown of every team’s spending in declining order:
Philadelphia Eagles – $613,928,134
Denver Broncos – $587,712,791
Seattle Seahawks – $584,305,975
Green Bay Packers – $583,138,740
Miami Dolphins – $577,975,260
Kansas City Chiefs – $575,541,332
Buffalo Bills – $573,647,850
Chicago Bears – $568,301,610
Cincinnati Bengals – $567,289,411
Baltimore Ravens – $562,425,698
San Diego Chargers – $562,232,116
Indianapolis Colts – $556,335,689
Atlanta Falcons – $550,614,572
New York Giants – $543,787,033
Arizona Cardinals – $543,327,538
Los Angeles Rams – $541,957,711
New Orleans Saints – $539,836,498
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $539,736,102
Minnesota Vikings – $539,162,454
New York Jets – $533,151,519
Washington Redskins – $532,545,662
Pittsburgh Steelers – $530,698,171
Detroit Lions – $530,210,549
Tennessee Titans – $524,505,256
Dallas Cowboys – $523,033,036
Houston Texans – $517,212,166
Jacksonville Jaguars – $516,908,734
Cleveland Browns – $516,158,864
San Francisco 49ers – $514,488,198
New England Patriots – $500,083,836
Carolina Panthers – $495,149,346
Oakland Raiders – $491,433,408
Poll: Should Jets Give Todd Bowles A Third Year?
Although the Panthers are Cardinals are the leaders in the disappointing-season clubhouse, the Jets have obviously endured a noticeable regression for a variety of reasons.
Despite housing veterans at numerous key spots, the Jets are 3-8 and boast the third-worst record in the AFC — ahead of only the Browns and Jaguars. This becomes a referendum on second-year coach Todd Bowles, but to what degree? Bowles’ 10-win debut in 2015 gave Gang Green its first since 2010, but the subsequent freefall has one of the league’s older rosters at a strange point.
The obvious issue lies at quarterback, where Ryan Fitzpatrick has joined Carson Palmer and Cam Newton as being unable to replicate a career year in 2015. Fitzpatrick’s level of play wasn’t on the level of those passers, but his Jets-record 31 touchdown passes helped the team contend until Week 17. That career year — and the team’s lack of other options — induced Mike Maccagnan to cave and pay the now-34-year-old quarterback $12MM this season. With Fitz and Geno Smith on expiring deals, and Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg being deemed unfit — per Bowles — at this point to be a viable option, the Jets are essentially a rudderless ship offensively despite employing 30-somethings Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte.
Bowles’ defense ranks 12th, though, and still carries one of the best defensive fronts in the game. However, New York’s seen Muhammad Wilkerson take a big step back from his usual All-Pro level, with the broken leg that ended his 2015 campaign clearly impacting his ’16 season, one that comes after his long-sought-after contract extension.
The former Cardinals defensive coordinator’s secondary has failed to live up to the dollars poured into it as well, with a 31-year-old Darrelle Revis not close to the level he was at with the Patriots and initial Jets stint. The 2015 Revis-Buster Skrine–Antonio Cromartie splurge has failed spectacularly. This hits closer to home for the 53-year-old head coach, whose main NFL area of expertise is in the secondary.
However, Maccagnan should probably shoulder a considerable amount of blame for what’s ensued as well. Gang Green boasting incoherent futures at quarterback, cornerback and on the offensive line — and being projected to be over the cap come ’17 — are more on the GM than coach.
But the on-field result has been ugly, with four double-digit losses. So, how much of that blame do you think the organization should place on Bowles? Does he deserve a third year to prove that 10-6 season wasn’t a fluke, or should the Jets blow this up and attempt a full-scale rebuild. Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comments section!
PFR Originals: 11/20/16 – 11/27/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Are the Cowboys the NFL’s best team? When it comes to overall record, they’ll obviously the top team, but are they actually the Super Bowl favorites? That’s what Connor Byrne was trying to find out in this week’s poll. So far, more than 65-percent of you say that the Cowboys are indeed the NFL’s best squad.
Poll: Are Cowboys NFL’s Best Team?
In pulling out a 31-26 win over the NFC East rival Redskins on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys improved to 10-1 and became the first team in the NFL this year to reach double-digit victories. Most of Dallas’ success has come thanks to an elite offense fronted by a dominant line and two sensational rookies – fourth-round quarterback Dak Prescott and first-round running back Ezekiel Elliott.
As those who pay any attention to the league know, Prescott was only supposed to be a temporary fill-in while Tony Romo recovered from an August back injury. The 23-year-old instead stole the four-time Pro Bowler’s job and has combined for 23 touchdowns (18 passing, five rushing) against two interceptions. Thanks to Prescott’s stinginess, the Cowboys are tied for first in the league in giveaways per game (0.6).
While Prescott’s resounding early success has come as a shock, Elliott has been as advertised. The former Ohio State star went fourth overall because his greatness with the Buckeyes was supposed to transfer to the pros, which it has. Elliott entered Thursday as the league’s rushing leader, and he increased his advantage over second-place DeMarco Murray – a former Cowboy – with a 97-yard performance. Elliott is now up to 1,199 yards on a league-high 243 carries, and he ranks second in the sport in rushing touchdowns (11).
With so much going for them on offense – including tight end Jason Witten, receivers Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley and, should something happen to Prescott, the league’s premier backup QB (Romo) – it doesn’t appear an attack that entered Thursday first in DVOA is going to fade down the stretch. The Cowboys’ defense is another matter, though: While the unit has given up a fairly meager 19.4 points per game – good for 10th in the league – it’s a distant 22nd in yards allowed per contest, and 25th in both DVOA and takeaways per game (0.9). Dallas’ work against the pass has been especially problematic, and its ineptitude was on display when it allowed Redskins signal-caller Kirk Cousins to complete 41 of 53 passes for 449 yards and three touchdowns on Thursday. The Cowboys also failed to sack Cousins, and have taken down opposing QBs only 20 times.
One thing the Cowboys’ defense has going for it – and one thing that helps explain the team’s lack of points surrendered – is that it doesn’t spend much time on the field. Dallas’ offense leads the league in time of possession (33:12 per game), as Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today noted Friday, thereby taking even more pressure off a less-than-stellar defense. That formula has worked swimmingly so far, but it could backfire in the playoffs against a team like the 7-2-1 Seahawks – who rank in the league’s top 10 in both offensive and DVOA and might stand as the Cowboys’ top competition in the NFC.
The likes of the Patriots (8-2), Raiders (8-2) and defending champion Broncos (7-3) are among those that should also be in the discussion for the league’s No. 1 team, though any of them would only serve as a hindrance to the Cowboys in a potential Super Bowl matchup. Having to face one of those teams this season would be a welcome task for Dallas, whose latest Super Bowl appearance came in a January 1996 win over the Steelers.
As things stand, the Cowboys are on track for a first-round bye in the postseason and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That indicates that they’re the league’s preeminent team, but do you fully buy into their nearly spotless record? Are they the current Super Bowl favorites?
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PFR Originals: 11/6/16 – 11/13/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- In the first installment of PFR’s 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings, we analyzed the best players who will hit the open market next spring. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the list, followed by Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones and Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The ranking will be updated regularly as 2017 free agency approaches.
- Prior to last week’s Broncos/Raiders matchup, I asked PFR readers to weigh in on which club would emerge with the AFC West title. Both Denver and Oakland still have a solid chance to take the crown, while Kansas City is also in the running. The Chargers, currently in fourth place in the division, still have an opportunity to earn a postseason berth, as well. The Raiders are the favorites, according to PFR readers, edging out the other teams with more than 51% of the vote.
- Week 10 offers an exciting slate of games, so I asked PFR readers which contest was the most important. Using Brian Burke of ESPN’s playoff probability leverage, I ranked the most critical games based on the chances that the result would affect playoff odds. Bengals/Giants (on Monday night) narrowly edged out Vikings/Redskins as the most crucial game.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.