PFR Originals News & Rumors

Tim Tebow, Mets GM On Minor League Signing

When Tim Tebow was last in the New York market, he was under center for the New York Jets. While the former University of Florida standout sold a whole bunch of No. 15 jerseys, he didn’t make a lot of plays for Gang Green and 2012 wound up being the last time Tebow was on an NFL regular season roster. After trying his luck with the Patriots and Eagles, Tebow turned his attention to broadcasting. After years of putting his charm, looks, and celebrity status to use on television, he is returning to professional sports in New York. This time, he’s trying to make it with the Mets organization as an outfielderTim Tebow (vertical)

Tebow, 29, has not played baseball full time in more than a decade. In his recent audition for major league clubs, he reportedly struggled to hit off-speed pitches from former big-leaguers David Aardsma and Chad Smith. One scout told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that Tebow showed a below-average 40 grade arm on the 20-80 scouts scale – a reminder of why Tebow was never able to make it as a quarterback on the professional level. Even though he showed “undeniable hitting ability” in the view of Crasnick, one has to wonder how far Tebow can get given his age, rust, and athletic limitations.

Count Mets GM Sandy Alderson among those with faith in the polarizing athlete. Alderson told reporters on a conference call today that Tebow is not being brought in as a ploy to sell merchandise. While he recognizes that Tebow faces an uphill battle in many respects, the GM says that the Mets could not pass on “a tremendous opportunity for us to associate with excellence.”

He has demonstrated through his personality a competitiveness that our players can see first hand,” said Alderson, who pointed to pitcher Seth Lugo and minor league standout T.J. Rivera as players who have come from obscurity to find success in the Mets organization. “I think any player evaluation starts with tools and from that standpoint, without grading everything out, suffice it to say that Tim has been a great athlete. He has demonstrated more than rudimentary baseball skills and we think with his commitment to success that this is an opportunity that we think is worthwhile. In terms of power, arm, foot speed, all of those things….we think he can be a baseball player. I think that is underscored by his competitiveness and his determination to succeed and improve.”

Alderson indicated that the Mets will be patient with Tebow as he refused to put a timeline on when the former Heisman Trophy winner could potentially reach the majors. The Mets will find out how ready Tebow is “over the next weeks, months, and possibly years,” though Alderson explained that he will be absent from his Instructional League commitments for “a few days each week” so that he can fulfill his TV obligations with the SEC Network.

So, why baseball and why now? Tebow explained that walking away from baseball was the “second hardest decision” he ever had to make and, in fact, he planned on making this switch more than a year ago.

[Then Eagles coach] Chip Kelly called in the middle of baseball training and, to me, that wasn’t just any opportunity. I figured Coach Kelly’s offense might fit me really well. But, we all know how that turned out,” said Tebow with a self-deprecating laugh. “After that, I started doing a little [baseball] training. Then, after the season, I really picked it up and now we’re here.”

Tebow explained that as he traveled the country doing speaking engagements over the last few years, the itch to play baseball would move him to call up a local team and take batting practice with them. For UFC fans, this may be reminiscent of pro wrestler-turned-real fighter C.M. Punk telling the world that he has trained for MMA with the occasional jiu-jitsu class and a “background” in Kenpo karate. But, in both cases, one can’t help but be impressed by the athlete’s positive attitude, competitive drive, and willingness to take a monumental risk in a brand new endeavor. Punk does not speak of winning the welterweight title from Tyron Woodley and Tebow isn’t telling the world that he is an All-Star in the making. For Tebow, this is about pursuing a dream – perhaps a little late in his athletic life – and making sure that he does not wake up one day as a 50-year-old baseball fan with enormous regret.

For me, I would consider success giving everything I have,” Tebow said. “That would be looking back on this journey and saying I did everything I could do to be the best I could be. I don’t necessarily view success as how many rings, championships, or promotions you get. I view it as whether I did everything I possibly could do to succeed.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Washington Redskins

The Redskins entered their second offseason under general manager Scot McCloughan, and while the club has shown an interest in developing a draft-based approach — as opposed to targeting high-priced free agents — Washington had to deal with the impending free agency of its franchise quarterback, and weigh a pursuit of a veteran defensive back who unexpectedly hit the open market.

Notable signings:

The Redskins didn’t wade very deeply into the free agent waters, choosing to spend their money at lower end of the market. However, the club did make two exceptions to that strategy, and each was its own unique situation. The first was on offense, where Washington retained its quarterback — fifth-year pro Kirk Cousins — via the franchise tag after the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement on a long-term deal.Kirk Cousins (Vertical)

It’s not surprising that that Cousins and the Redskins couldn’t come to a middle ground on his value given that he only has one full season of starting experience (and only one half-season of exceptional play). Washington was reportedly offering an extension that contained $24MM in guarantees and a $16MM per year salary, but given that the franchise tag will pay Cousins nearly $20MM in 2016 alone, he had no reason to accept such a proposal.

Both the club and Cousins seem content with the idea of him playing out the year under the tag, and the issue will clearly be revisited next offseason. If the Redskins want to place the franchise tender on Cousins again in 2017, they’d have to be willing to pay him almost $24MM (120% the value of the 2016 tag). But the more likely scenario — if Cousins plays well once again — entails the two parties coming to terms on an extension.

While Cousins is only locked up for one season, Washington signed cornerback Josh Norman for the next five years, agreeing to a $75MM contract with the All Pro after the Panthers rescinded the franchise tag. Josh NormanThe deal contains $36.5MM in full guarantees, but nearly 60% of that total comes in the form of guaranteed 2016 and 2017 base salaries. As such, the Redskins could conceivably exit the deal after two seasons without much dead money being left on the cap.

If Norman continues his current level of play, of course, Washington won’t have any reason to get out of the contract. Norman, 28, enjoyed a career-year in 2015 as he was named to the All Pro first team and selected for his first Pro Bowl. He produced career highs in both interceptions (four) and passes defensed (18), and was well-regarded by advanced metrics as well, finishing as the league’s 12th-best corner by Pro Football Focus’ grades.

Norman wasn’t the only addition the Redskins made to their secondary, as the club also agreed to terms with former Broncos safety David Bruton. Nearly 30 years old, Bruton has never been a full-time starter during his NFL career, David Bruton (vertical)but he’ll get that opportunity now opposite DeAngelo Hall. Denver played a bunch of three-safety looks last year, so Bruton did see action on more than 40% of snaps in 2015. Meanwhile, Will Blackmon, Greg Toler, and Duke Ihenacho will all vie for rotational snaps in the defensive backfield while adding value on special teams.

Washington also made several cheap signings along the front seven, and two of them — defensive lineman Ziggy Hood ($20K guaranteed) and Kedric Golston (no guaranteed money) — are listed as starters on the club’s official depth chart that was released today. Along with fellow new addition Kendall Reyes and holdovers Ricky Jean-Francois and Anthony Lanier, the Redskins figure to rotate their defensive lineman quite a bit in order to keep everyone fresh.

Two re-signings that didn’t make much sense were tight end Vernon Davis and linebacker Mason Foster. Davis, 32, has a familiarity with McCloughan from the pair’s time in San Francisco, but the veteran tight end looked completely lost with both the 49ers and Broncos last season. Clearly, he won’t be asked to be a No. 1 option with Jordan Reed in tow, but $1.1MM in guarantees is not an insignificant amount of money. Foster, meanwhile, wasn’t very effective after being signed last September, and other free agent options such as Craig Robertson or Zach Brown could have been more cost-effective moves.

Continue reading about the Redskins’ offseason…

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Impact Rookies: Arizona Cardinals

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Robert Nkemdiche, DT (Mississippi State, No. 29 overall)

The NFL Draft Report casts a wary eye on the Cardinals’ first round selection. In sort of a déjà vu’ for the staff, could this Ole Miss prospect pull a “Honey Badger” and see the error of his ways off the football field, or are we again seeing a remake of the Demetrius Underwood situation, where a talented player simply self-destructs in life? We are very cautiously including him in this article, because it’s hard to cast the troubled Nkemdiche as an “impact player,” despite his talent. Robert Nkemdiche (Vertical)

[RELATED – Click here to read our in-depth recap of the Cardinals’ offseason] 

Currently, Nkemdiche is slated to be one of the first defensive ends off of the bench in relief of Chandler Jones and Calais Campbell. The Cardinals say they want to extend Campbell, but that could be a tall order as they also have to carve out a monster deal to retain Jones. If all works out with Nkemdiche, he can serve as insurance against Campbell going elsewhere in free agency.

Nkemdiche has Ndamukong Suh-like athletic ability, but his problems occur when he seems to throttle down more than he plays with intensity. His occasional “let-ups” on the field became much more noticeable this year and he did seem to be more concerned about his running back duties than he did in giving pursuit as a defender. The Ole Miss defender made only two long distance tackles this year, despite having valid lateral agility and burst to give proper chase. When his head is in the game, Nkemdiche demonstrates the ability to easily take plays from the chalkboard to the field.

He needs minimal reps to retain and evident by the fact that he has started every game during his career, he has a good feel for blocking schemes and the vision to locate the ball in a hurry. He understands his assignments and his feel for the ball is above average, but his woeful inconsistency and attention to detail can be maddening, at times. He is not the type who will make an effort on every play to get to the ball and there are more than a few times where he is caught out of position due to a mental error.

Nkemdiche is a hard worker in the weight room, but is the type that needs to be pushed to get the best effort out of him. He has the ability to be a self-starter and he is a good field leader who lets his actions speak louder than his words, but his inconsistency has now become an issue. He is compliant to the coach’s wishes and plays with good intensity and effort when he performs to his ability, but he runs too hot-and-cold to be strongly considered a football player on par with his athleticism.

Ultimately, on the field, we believe that Nkemdiche has a lot to offer. How he performs at the next level, however, will hinge largely on his own head.

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Offseason In Review: Tennessee Titans

After one of the busiest offseasons in the NFL, the Titans are looking to take one major step forward in their rebuilding process.

Notable signings:

There was lots of activity in Tennessee over these last few months, but relatively little happening on the free agent market. One notable move they did make was the signing of center Ben Jones, which strengthened their interior line while hurting the rival Texans. Given the season-ending injury suffered by presumptive starter Nick Martin, the loss of Jones will sting extra hard in Houston. Ben Jones (Vertical)

Jones, 26, was with the Texans since 2012, when he entered the league as a fourth-round pick out of Georgia. He became Houston’s full-time starter in 2014, and he’s started all 32 games since. Jones posted solid marks from Pro Football Focus, which ranked him as the No. 18 center in the league last season, noting that he was better in the pass game than as a run-blocker.

Early on in free agency, the Titans re-signed defensive tackle Al Woods to a three-year pact. Woods, who recently turned 29, picked up 22 tackles in 14 games (nine starts) for the Titans in 2015. With fellow nose tackle Sammie Lee Hill recovering from a knee injury to open the season, Woods saw most of the playing time at the position, earning 362 defensive snaps to Hill’s 190 for the season. While Pro Football Focus ranked Woods just 88th out of 123 interior defenders, PFF gave him a solid grade as a run defender, and he was primarily used on early downs. At the time of his new deal, it looked like Woods would be slotted in as the team’s starting nose tackle. However, the Titans found their new starter in the draft (more on that later).

Rishard MatthewsWide receiver Rishard Matthews was a pleasant surprise for Dolphins fans and fantasy owners alike in 2015. In 11 contests last season, Matthews totaled 662 yards and averaged 15.4 per reception as the Fins’ downfield complement to Jarvis Landry. Unfortunately, a season-ending injury later in the season ended his breakout campaign prematurely. That bad break also may have capped his free agent market somewhat. Ultimately, the Titans were able to sign Matthews to a three-year deal with a paltry $2.5MM guaranteed. After Dorial Green-Beckham was jettisoned to Philly, Matthews probably now stands as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver.

Matthews isn’t the only Miami import as the Titans also signed cornerback Brice McCain. McCain started 10 games and played 735 defensive snaps for the Dolphins in 2015, picking up an interception to go along with 39 tackles. However, the Dolphins decided to cut him this year in order to save $2.5MM against the cap. Despite making 10 starts for Miami last year, he’ll play a reserve role this year behind starters Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox.

The Titans reportedly made quarterback Matt Cassel a priority in free agency as they wanted to shore up the quarterback position behind Marcus Mariota. Evidently, the Cassel signing was made so that the Titans could move on from Zach Mettenberger later on in the offseason.

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Offseason In Review: New York Giants

After a 6-10 finish in 2015, the Giants made a coaching change and spent like crazy in free agency to right the ship. Will it be enough to put Big Blue back in the postseason?

Notable signings:

The cost of edge rushers goes up year and after year and the Giants set a new watermark this offseason when they signed free agent Olivier Vernon. Vernon’s five-year deal is worth $85MM overall with $40MM+ in guaranteed cash, the largest guarantee of any free agent in the 2016 class. Though Malik Jackson‘s $85.5MM deal technically edged him out for overall base value, Vernon probably got the better deal. Olivier Vernon

Vernon ranked third overall behind only Khalil Mack and Von Miller among edge defenders last season, according to Pro Football Focus, after amassing 7.5 sacks and 61 tackles. That puts the former Dolphin in elite company, though a pessimist would note that Vernon has only topped 10 sacks once in his career (11.5 in 2013) and $40MM+ guaranteed is a lot for a guy who doesn’t have a history of elite sack production. Regardless, Vernon is a difference-maker and one of the league’s best bookends any way you slice it. The giant deal may not prove to be a wise investment in the long run, but there’s little doubt that it will reignite the Giants’ pass rush in 2015.

Janoris Jenkins/Giants Uniform (Vertical)On the first day of free agency, the Giants pounced to sign Janoris Jenkins, a player widely considered to be the best cornerback in this year’s class. The Rams, choosing to put their funds elsewhere and their faith in Trumaine Johnson, only offered Jenkins a a five-year offer worth about $45MM. Jenkins wisely declined and entered the open market, where he got a whopping $62.5MM over five years with nearly $29MM guaranteed. In Jenkins, the Giants got a top cornerback who doesn’t turn 28 until October. Now, the Giants will have Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the secondary (plus a promising first-round choice – more on that later) and that will force opposing quarterbacks to think twice before they throw.

Last summer, the New York tabloids were almost entirely dedicated to Jason Pierre-Paul and his 4th of July mishap. At the time, it appeared that JPP had blown up any opportunity at a future with the Giants. After the unfortunate accident, the Giants immediately reached out to the defensive end to check in on him and offer help. JPP responded by hutting out the team and keeping them in the dark for much of the offseason on his status. Eventually, Pierre Paul’s relationship with the Giants healed up along with his hand.

Pierre-Paul returned to the field in November and ended up appearing in eight games, registering 26 tackles and a personal-low one sack. Despite his statistical decline, Pro Football Focus still ranked Pierre-Paul a solid 30th out of 91 qualifying edge rushers. Here at PFR, we ranked JPP as the seventh-best free agent on the market. It wasn’t cheap, but the Giants retained Pierre-Paul for only one year, protecting themselves against any potential decline.

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Offseason In Review: New York Jets

In 2015, a locker room fight between Geno Smith and a reserve linebacker changed the entire course of the Jets’ season. The skirmish left Smith with a broken jaw and left the door open for Ryan Fitzpatrick to show what he could do. Not only was Fitzpatrick a capable fill-in, he turned out to be one of the league’s better quarterbacks last season.

How could the Jets and the Harvard grad ever top that kind of offseason drama? Well, they gave it their best shot this spring and summer.

Notable signings:

In the spring, the Jets tried to re-sign Fitzpatrick to a three-year deal in the $7MM/year range. That annual value was similar to the contracts signed by Robert Griffin III and Chase Daniel earlier this offseason. Of course, Fitzpatrick was significantly more productive in 2015 than those two have been in recent years. His camp argued that he was in line for about $14-15MM year, pointing out that Sam Bradford and Brock Osweiler received contracts in the neighborhood of $18MM annually, even though they also didn’t achieve what Fitzpatrick did last year. The only trouble is, no other team appeared to show serious interest in him. Even the Broncos – who were left without a QB after one retired and one bolted – didn’t seem very interested in Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick

The standoff took a number of weird twists and turns. First, there was a report that Fitzpatrick would rather walk away from the sport altogether than pay on what he believed was an unsatisfactory contract. Then, there were rumblings that he would consider playing as a No. 2 quarterback elsewhere to spite the Jets. Both claims were likely floated out by Fitzpatrick’s reps, but neither threat had much behind it.

Eventually, the Jets and Fitzpatrick came back to the negotiating table and shook hands on a one-year, fully guaranteed pact worth $12MM. Even though Fitzpatrick turns 34 in November, he should have the opportunity to cash in a multi-year deal next offseason if he is able to reprise his ’15 performance. Many would say that Fitzpatrick won the stare down with the Jets, but both sides needed each other and it’s hard to fault Gang Green for caving.

Muhammad Wilkerson (vertical)In all of the talk surrounding Fitzpatrick, defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson was almost an afterthought. Wilkerson, 27 in October, has established himself as one of the game’s best young defensive ends. Unlike talented teammate Sheldon Richardson, he has stayed out of trouble off the field while he dominates on the field. Still, the Jets showed very little interest in re-signing him this offseason, choosing instead to employ the franchise tag.

Do I feel that they want me back? As of right now, no. I don’t feel like they want me,” Wilkerson said. “I’m a talented guy. Everybody knows that. I feel like they’re going to get the best they can out of me and just let me go. That’s how I feel. Do I like that feeling? No. I’m a New Jersey guy, born and raised and would love to raise my family here.”

Then, on the day of the franchise tag extension deadline, the Jets shocked the world when they announced that they had reached a five-year, $86MM deal with Wilkerson. So, what changed? It’s possible that the Jets realized late in the game that they needed to hammer out a long-term deal in order to improve their cap situation in 2016. Whatever the reason, Jets fans rejoiced when Wilkerson was locked up for years to come. $37MM of Wilkerson’s deal is fully guaranteed with $54MM coming to him over the next three years. That means that Wilkerson is getting paid major money, but the Jets can also cut bait with him prior to the 2018 season to get out of the other $17MM.

The Jets made a big splash in free agency when they signed running back Matt Forte. Numerous clubs were said to be interested in Forte after the Matt Forte Jets (vertical) Bears informed him that he would not be re-signed after eight seasons in Chicago. Forte had a relatively down season in 2015, missing three games with injury and failing to top 1,000 yards rushing for the first time since 2011. But, he still managed almost 1,300 yards from scrimmage thanks to his receiving ability — he caught 44 passes out of the backfield for almost 400 yards. Some are skeptical about what Forte can do at his age (31 in December), but he has a lot more in the tank than LaDainian Tomlinson did when he joined up with the Jets as a free agent years ago.

Besides, the Jets still have Bilal Powell to help run the ball and ease Forte’s workload. Powell averaged a career-high 4.5 yards per carry on 70 attempts last season and added a personal-best 47 receptions. The Jets did not want to let him linger on the free agent market and they wrapped him up on March 10th, keeping him away from interested clubs including the Cowboys, Ravens, Broncos, and rival Patriots.

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Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

The Texans’ blueprint this offseason obvious to everyone as they devoted a full-force effort on multiple fronts to fix their offense. After a defensive-powered season ended with a 30-0 shutout in the wild-card round, Houston will deploy a starkly different starting offense.

For most of this century, teams with elite quarterbacks or those equipped with dominant defenses advanced to Super Bowls. There aren’t many exceptions in the modern game. The 2012 Ravens are one, but they were riding a hot streak from Joe Flacco who was playing some of his best football. The 2016 Texans are banking on another fifth-year passer, but Flacco and Brock Osweiler‘s careers aren’t exactly comparable. Houston bet big on the longtime backup who was at times effective in his audition last season.

Although they employ one of the NFL’s premier players in J.J. Watt, the Texans’ chances will hinge largely on the 6’7″ Osweiler building on his brief success. Last year’s No. 3-ranked defense lifted the team about as far as it could. This offseason, management made a point to provide as much help as possible.

Notable signings:

Midway through 2014, it looked like Peyton Manning was going to play out the five-year contract he signed with the Broncos in 2012, thus giving his lanky backup no realistic opportunity impress potential buyers as a free agent. But the future Hall of Fame quarterback experienced a quick decline that forced the Broncos to retool their offense that season, and his freefall continued in 2015 prior to Manning injuring his foot. Osweiler stepped in and kept his previous defensive-fueled team afloat, altering his career in the process.

The seven-game work sample Osweiler offered included mixed reviews. He showcased some ability despite no previous experience in an important game situation, leading the Broncos to a 4-2 record in games he played throughout. The former second-round pick drove the team to pivotal victories over the Patriots and Bengals to help the Broncos secure home-field advantage. He finished with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions and 245.9 passing yards per game. Denver’s offense also sputtered for several entire halves under Osweiler’s guidance, leading to two December losses and increasing the defense’s burden. What happened during the final stretch of offensive futility under the 25-year-old Osweiler may have changed the long-term outlook for two franchises.

Benched for Manning early in the third quarter of the Broncos’ Week 17 game after a spate of turnovers that mostly were hard to pin on him, Osweiler either was merely miffed at the idea of being replaced after guiding Denver back to the precipice of home-field advantage. Or he saw Gary Kubiak‘s decision as evidence he didn’t want to return to the team. His agreement with Houston came after Denver offered him $16MM per year to continue in a system in which he showed promise. Osweiler has attributed the surprising exit to wanting to start something with the Texans, who are placing immense faith in the Arizona State product whose career began with a longer backup stint than Aaron Rodgers‘.

The Texans are committed to Osweiler for the next two seasons at least. This experiment failing can reasonably result in a divorce in 2018, when just $6MM in dead money would be attached to an Osweiler release. But the Texans spent plenty in offseason capital to give their quarterback weaponry after deploying an offense without much in the way of options beyond DeAndre Hopkins last season.

Houston moved quickly to replace Arian Foster, signing Miller on Day 1 of free agency. Unlike the new franchise quarterback, the Texans’ cornerstone ball-carrier’s ability can be judged based on full-season bodies of work. Miller posted back-to-back slates of at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage. Among backs who received at least 400 carries in 2014-15, Miller’s 4.8 yards per tote rank as the league’s top mark in a sub-category basically exclusive to starting backs. As a receiver, Miller caught 47 passes for nearly 400 yards last season, so he’s no slouch as an outlet option, either.

Miller played 16 games in each of the Dolphins’ past three regular seasons, but 2014’s 210 carries represent the former fourth-round pick’s career high. He stands to have plenty of opportunities in Houston, which looks to have signed a 25-year-old runner with upside thanks to his age and a lack of usage typical of a three-year starter. By this measure, Miller’s $6.5MM AAV (sixth among running backs) accord looks to be a good value bet. He’ll be a key part in helping Osweiler assimilate in south Texas.

The other key piece on the free agency side of the offense-enhancement blueprint, Allen possesses the starting experience closer to Miller but a track record more in line with Osweiler’s. Excepting a 2014 season during which he missed the Chiefs’ final 15 games, Allen was a primary starter in Kansas City after arriving as Scott Pioli‘s final second-round selection in 2012. He started 13 games as a rookie and 14 a year later, but in neither season was he considered an above-average guard. Conveniently for his value and the sake of the Chiefs’ reeling line last year, Allen strung together his best season in 2015.

Previously relocated to right tackle in 2014 prior to his season-ending elbow malady, Allen began his ’15 campaign on the right edge before Ben Grubbs‘ career-ending neck injury moved him back inside. At left guard, Allen became Kansas City’s best lineman, helping the Chiefs adjust to life without Jamaal Charles. But the 6-foot-4 blocker saw a preseason knee injury limit him to 12 games (eight starts) last season. Nonetheless, the Texans needed a guard with Brandon Brooks in the process of signing with the Eagles, and they made Allen the league’s sixth-highest-paid guard on a per-year basis.

Allen’s $7MM average — which ended up being $1MM less per season than Brooks received from Philadelphia — makes him the Texans’ third $5MM-per-year blocker. He’ll join tackles Duane Brown and Derek Newton as veteran presences expected to open lanes for Miller, only Allen will now have to live up to a deal signed on the strength of barely a half-season’s worth of upper-echelon work. Like Osweiler, Allen showcased potential at the right time.

Houston spent less extravagantly to fortify its swing spots but kept Clark and brought in Bergstrom on notable veteran deals. A 2015 trade acquisition from the Broncos, Clark looks like the Texans’ swing tackle, with former Raider Bergstrom settling in as the interior roving backup. Clark could be called to action in a key capacity, however, as Brown remains on the Active/PUP list.

Clark operated in this capacity for the 2013 Broncos, starting the team’s final 17 games after left-edge bastion Ryan Clady went down that September. He performed adequately that year but couldn’t hold the right tackle job in 2014, helping green-light a trade to Houston. Last season, Clark performed better as a run-blocker than in pass protection during his four games as a starter.

Bergstrom suffered a significant foot injury in 2013 and did not play in ’13 or ’14. A former Raiders third-rounder, he returned as a sub for Rodney Hudson in three starts last season. He could also serve as a possible starting center given the team’s recent trouble at that spot. Nick Martin‘s season-ending ankle injury appears to have opened the door for 2015 UDFA Greg Mancz. But the second-year player faltering could move Bergstrom into a position to play with the first unit.

Regardless of whether or not Bergstrom or Clark ascend into the starting lineup, Houston’s now paying five linemen at least $2.5MM per year. Martin’s injury would have set several teams back worse.

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PFR Originals: 8/21/16 – 8/28/16

The original content, analysis, and reporting produced by the PFR staff this week:

The Beat: ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez On The Rams

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Rams with the team’s newest beat writer, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com. You can follow Alden on Twitter @Alden_Gonzalez and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: For those of us who aren’t in the Los Angeles area – what’s the excitement level like in L.A. for the Rams’ return? Los Angeles (Featured)

Alden Gonzalez: It’s been about what you would expect for a team returning to a huge media market, and by that I mean it’s been high. They sold 171,000 tickets to their first two preseason games. That is absurd. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who played at Los Angeles Coliseum in Week 2, raved about how loud it was through even the fourth quarter, when all the subs were in. And each open-to-the-public practice I’ve attended has filled up at least one section of bleachers. The novelty will eventually rub off, of course. They’ll have to win pretty quickly in order to maintain attention spans out here.

Zach Links: The Rams are expected to extend coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead before the start of the season. Do you think it’s wise to extend them given that Fisher’s teams have gone 27-36-1 in the last four years?

Alden Gonzalez: Yeah, I do. I know it isn’t the popular opinion, but extending a GM or a coach does not mean that individual cannot eventually get fired. Especially not for a multi-billionaire like Rams owner Stan Kroenke, who would barely flinch at having to eat whatever remains of contracts for Snead or Fisher if such a scenario took place. Snead and Fisher are at the end of their current deals, and it’s hard to operate like that. The Rams have enough newness going on – new quarterback, new city, one of the youngest rosters in the NFL – and it looks like they at least want some stability up top. Snead and Fisher both know the pressure is on to start winning, whether their contracts are extended or not.

Jared GoffZach Links: How high is the ceiling for Jared Goff? Do you think we’ll see him take over as the starter at some point in 2016?

Alden Gonzalez: I expect him to be the starter at some point in 2016; the only question is when. Barring an uplifting performance in Week 3 of the preseason, though, I do not see him starting the Monday Night Football opener on Sept. 12. He just hasn’t shown enough yet. He needs to be more decisive, he needs to take care of the football and he needs to do a better job of picking up blitzes. All that, in addition to learning to call plays from the huddle and learning to take snaps from under center – two things he really never did at Cal. As far as upside – I think he can be an elite-level passer if he irons those things out. The raw tools are there.

Zach Links: A second franchise tag for Trumaine Johnson would cost the Rams $16MM+ next year. To date, they have been unwilling to pay him like a top NFL cornerback. Do you expect to see Johnson wind up somewhere else in 2017?

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The Hidden Value Of Barkevious Mingo

The Twitter-verse was quick to decide a winner in yesterday’s trade of linebacker Barkevious Mingo from the Browns to the Patriots, with the new potential outcomes for the former sixth overall pick ranging from Pro Bowler to Hall of Famer. Bill Belichick has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to wringing out every last bit of talent from an unheralded player, but the New England head coach might be playing an entirely different game altogether: mastering the NFL’s compensatory pick system.Bill Belichick (Vertical)

[RELATED: Former Belichick protege (and current Lions GM) Bob Quinn had interest in Mingo]

While the league has never disclosed the formula that it uses when calculating which clubs receive compensatory selections, the basics of the process are known. Essentially, comp picks are granted to teams that lose more compensatory players than they sign during the free agent period. Each club can receive a maximum of four comp selections, and while the specifics of the method aren’t made public, analysts such as Nick Korte of Over the Cap have reverse-engineered the exercise to reveal that average salary and play time are key factors.

The Patriots, among other teams, have taken advantage of this arrangement for years by staying out of the big-ticket free agent market. As Bill Barnwell of Grantland explained last January:

By [not signing expensive free agents] and having other teams target their free agents, the Patriots come in line for various compensatory picks from the NFL’s obtuse, black-box system. These picks aren’t tradable (ed. note: comp picks will be tradable beginning in 2017), and no team can receive anything higher than a third-rounder as part of the league’s system, but their value can add up over time. The Patriots have made 25 compensatory selections during Belichick’s time with the team, and the estimated value of those picks — based on their draft slot alone — is roughly between the value of having the first overall pick and the second overall pick. All for not signing free agents.

But Belichick and the rest of the New England front office have also been targeting another ripe area of the NFL’s structure: the trade market, and more specifically, the trade market for players nearing the end of their contracts. Mingo is the latest example, but over the past several years, the Patriots have looked to acquire players who were close to reaching the free agent market, presumably in the hopes that yet another compensatory pick might come their way.

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