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Impact Rookies: New Orleans Saints

August 26th, 2016 at 8:50am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Sheldon Rankins, DT (Louisville, No. 12 overall)

The Saints found a playmaker in Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins. One month ago, I would have told you that Tyler Davison and Nick Fairley should watch their backs as the former Cardinals powerhouse was rapidly pushing for first unit assignments. Unfortunately, Rankins suffered a broken fibula a couple of weeks ago, meaning that we’ll have to wait a little longer to see him take the field. Even though he seems ticketed for IR-DTR, Rankins still appears poised to make an impact in 2016.

Thrust right into action as a 280-pound true freshman, Rankins was a valuable performer for Louisville and “fireplug” at the strong-side defensive tackle position, playing in a 4-3 defensive alignment during his first two campaigns.

With the Cardinals shifting to a 3-4 defense in 2014, Rankins returned to his “roots” at strong-side defensive end, a position where he had compiled 153 tackles (112 solos) with 23.0 sacks and 49.0 additional stops behind the line of scrimmage with 23 quarterback pressures, five fumble recoveries, six forced fumbles, six pass deflections, and three interceptions during his sophomore through senior prep campaigns.

Entering the 2015 season, the Cardinals defender has an appropriate last name. If you consider the consensus analysis from professional scouts, at the strong-side defensive tackle position, it is sort of a “rank and file,” with Rankins the unquestioned top 2016 draft talent, and the rest of the eligible prospects “filing” in behind him.

Rankins is a very disruptive run defender with rare initial quickness. He is at his best shooting gaps and planting ball carriers in the backfield, but he also has long arms (33 inches) for his frame and the upper-body strength to press blockers off him. His ability to penetrate also makes it tough for quarterbacks to step up in the pocket, and he doesn’t have to win with quickness to be an effective pass-rusher, either. He has the violent hands and motor to get to the quarterback when he doesn’t win with his first move.

Rankins is an exceptional competitor with great football character and football/classroom intelligence. He’s a self-motivator, called the team’s “best” practice player by the coaching staff. He has developed into a “film junkie” and easily transfers what he learns in film study to the field. He displays elite first-step quickness and explodes into the backfield, as he can handle either the five- or three-technique chores, thanks to his low center of gravity and explosiveness that makes it tough to establish position against him.

Rankins’ hand usage and upper body strength shows that he has more than enough ability to split double teams. He consistently shoots the gaps to make plays in the backfield and excels at using his hands to control blockers and tracks the ball when moving down the line. He is not the type that will have any issues when trying to anchor when forced into phone booth vs. bigger offensive linemen, as he does a very nice job to split double team action with initial quickness and power.

Second Round – Michael Thomas, WR (Ohio State, No. 47 overall)

Saints coach Sean Payton says that he would want to target Michael Thomas in fantasy football and that’s a sign that he’ll be targeted often by Drew Brees. At the same time, Payton has said that fellow receiver Brandon Coleman has been “pedestrian” for most of training camp. Thomas is technically listed behind Coleman and Willie Snead on the depth chart for now, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ohio State product leapfrog one or both of those players.

There are times when Thomas can simply flat-out fly down the sidelines and once he gets into his route, he builds his acceleration nicely. He is a long strider, but has good quickness off the line and the ability to eat up a defender’s cushion. He shows nice acceleration throughout his routes, but needs to develop an array of moves to set up the defender, even though he does a good job of sinking his hips/pads to come out of his breaks cleanly.

Yes, Thomas takes long strides, but they are quick enough for him to get to his break point, thanks to his ability to lower his pads and drop his weight to generate the burst needed coming out of his plant. He has the speed to run off defenders and has started to develop a good feel for quarterback pressure, doing a solid job of working back to the ball. He rounds up field routes some, but has the body control to adjust and get under the thrown ball without having to break stride.

Thomas can bend and catch the low ball or jump and adjust to the overthrown passes and get to the ball at its high point. He looks natural with his body control to get in position and make plays over his shoulder. He times his leaps well and it is rare to see him lose on a jump ball battle. He has some hip stiffness, but gets good elevation and extension to catch away from his frame. He also does a good job of using his long arms to catch the ball at its high point and despite consistently poor throwing by his quarterbacks, he had just 9-of-88 targeted passes deflected away from him in 2015.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service providing insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, you can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Beat: Ryan O’Halloran On The Jaguars

August 25th, 2016 at 10:08am CST by Zachary Links

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Jaguars with Ryan O’Halloran of the The Florida Times-Union. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @ryanohalloran and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: Right now, the Jaguars don’t sound intent on signing Greg Hardy, even though they auditioned him earlier this summer. Do you sense that a change of heart is possible? Or have the Jaguars concluded that Hardy is not worth all of the baggage that comes with signing him?

Ryan O’Halloran: The only way a change of heart is possible is if the Jaguars are equal parts beset by injuries or ineffectiveness at the defensive end spot early in the year. If they were afraid of his baggage, they wouldn’t have brought Hardy in for a visit. This way, they’ve met him, heard his side of things and worked him out so if they need to call him on a Tuesday to sign him and get to town for practice on a Wednesday, they don’t have to do all of the research.

Zach Links: The Jaguars shelled out lots of money for Malik Jackson, a player who has only one season as a full-time starter on his resume. Will the Jaguars come to regret the six-year, $85.5MM deal ($31.5MM guaranteed) or will he prove to be a difference-maker for years to come?

Ryan O’Halloran: More often than not, these gigantic deals become regrettable down the line. That said, the guess here is Jackson will be a difference-maker early in the contract. Against the Jets in the preseason opener, he showed good power by pushing a guard back and impacting Ryan Fitzpatrick’s throwing motion. The Jaguars needed a three-down interior defensive lineman like Jackson and also needed to overpay to get him.

Zach Links: Tashaun Gipson also got a nice payday courtesy of Jacksonville with his five-year, $36MM deal ($12MM guaranteed). Will he help solve the Jags’ woes at safety after their group was among the league’s worst in 2015?

Ryan O’Halloran: Gipson is the key to the Jaguars’ free agent class. The free safety spot has been unsettled since Dave Caldwell/Gus Bradley were hired in January 2013. Dwight Lowery (2013), Josh Evans (2013-15), Winston Guy (2014) and Sergio Brown (2015) have all started there and been unimpressive. Enter Gipson. If he can be the sideline-to-sideline free safety, it will allow the Jaguars’ cornerbacks to play tighter man coverage and allow strong safety Johnathan Cyprien to play closer to the line of scrimmage and better take advantage of his skills (run support, not coverage).

Zach Links: How good can Jalen Ramsey be in the long run? Who does he remind you of?

Ryan O’Halloran: I haven’t seen enough of him to come up with a comparison. It’s tough to say what Ramsey’s ceiling is because he played three positions in three years for Florida State – free safety, slot corner and outside corner. The Jaguars are asking him to play inside and outside corner.

Zach Links: As the 53-man roster deadline approaches, what roster battles should Jaguars fans be keeping an eye on?

Ryan O’Halloran: For a team that went 5-11, it’s surprising that there aren’t more battles going on, but that speaks to the Jaguars’ activity in free agency and the draft. Here are a couple: Left tackle (Kelvin Beachum or Luke Joeckel). Left guard (Joeckel or Tyler Shatley or Mackenzy Bernadeau or Chris Reed). No. 5 receiver (Bryan Walters or Arrelious Benn).

Zach Links: How do you expect 2016 to go for the Jaguars? What record do you think they’ll finish with?

Ryan O’Halloran: This is the most talented team of the Caldwell-Bradley Era, but that won’t mean a playoff berth. I’ve got them with a 7-9 record.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

August 24th, 2016 at 6:34pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Although the Buccaneers are in the midst of an eight-year playoff drought, they appear to be on the right track after taking significant steps forward in 2015. Not only did Tampa Bay enjoy a four-win improvement and better its point differential by 58 from 2014 to 2015, but it may have found a franchise quarterback in Jameis Winston. The No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, Winston acquitted himself well as a rookie and could soon help lead the Buccaneers back to consistent contention for the first time since the early 2000s. In a perfect world for the Bucs, their return to the postseason will come in January 2017. However, given the club’s relatively modest offseason, it’s likely too soon to expect it to push for a playoff spot in the NFC.

Notable signings:

Doug Martin, RB: Five years, $35.75MM. $15MM guaranteed. $5.75MM available via escalators.
J.R. Sweezy, G: Five years, $32.5MM. $14.5MM guaranteed.
Robert Ayers, DL: Three years, $19.5MM. $7.5MM. $1.65MM available via incentives.
Brent Grimes, CB: Two years, $14MM. $7MM guaranteed.
Chris Conte, S: One year, $3MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Daryl Smith, LB: One year, $2.5MM. $2MM guaranteed.
Bryan Anger, P: One year, $1.75MM. $750K guaranteed.
Josh Robinson, CB: One year, $2MM. $500K guaranteed.
Keith Tandy, S: Two years, $1.85MM. $250K guaranteed.
Bradley McDougald, CB: One year, $2.553MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
Russell Shepard, WR: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
A.J. Francis, DT: One year, $600K.

General manager Jason Licht said before free agency that the Buccaneers would be “selective and strategic” in spending money and wouldn’t dole out contracts with the potential to damage their cap over the long haul. Licht was true to his word, as even the most sizable deals he awarded to veterans will be easy to escape in short order if they don’t work out.

In terms of both contract (five years, $35.75MM with $15MM in guarantees) and star power, running back Doug Martin was Tampa Bay’s most notable offseason signing. Given that the Buccaneers decided in May 2015 to decline Martin’s $5.621MM fifth-year option for 2017, they took a financial hit this past winter in committing nearly three times that much in guarantees to their 2012 first-round pick. A year ago, though, Martin was coming off back-to-back miserable seasons that made his sensational rookie campaign look like a fluke. He revisited his first-year form last season, however, finishing second in the NFL in both carries (288) and rushing yards (1,409) en route to first-team All-Pro status.

Considering Martin’s inconsistent track record, betting on the 27-year-old going forward looks like a gamble. In the event he’s unable to live up to his new pact, the Bucs will be able to bail on his contract after the 2017 season, thus mitigating the risk. Should Martin keep serving as a quality option, Tampa Bay will continue to have one of the league’s most well-rounded backfield duos in him and Charles Sims. Led by that tandem, the Buccaneers finished last season first in yards-per-carry average (4.8), fifth in overall rushing (2,162) and 11th in DVOA – up from 31st in 2014.

Among the players who will be responsible for blocking for Martin and Sims is left guard J.R. Sweezy, whom the Buccaneers inked to a five-year, $32.55MM pact with $14.5MM guaranteed in free agency. With a combined $2.5MM in dead money through 2020 left after this year, the Buccaneers will be able to move on from Sweezy without much difficulty if they have buyer’s remorse.

Sweezy spent the first four years of his career in Seattle, where he started in all 46 of his appearances from 2013-15, though Pro Football Focus ranked him just 66th among 81 qualified guards in overall performance last season. Nevertheless, the Bucs are counting on Sweezy as the long-term replacement for the retired Logan Mankins, whom PFF placed 15th in 2015. The Sweezy era in Tampa Bay hasn’t gotten off to an ideal start, though, as the 27-year-old will miss at least the first five weeks of the season with a back injury. In the meantime, the Buccaneers are likely to go with former tackle Kevin Pamphile, a third-year man with four starts on his resume.

On the defensive side, the Buccaneers went into free agency looking to augment a pass rush that finished last season tied for 14th in sacks (38) and 22nd in hurries (91). To help with those issues, they added defensive end Robert Ayers, a former Bronco and Giant who amassed 21 sacks and four forced fumbles in 39 games over the previous three seasons. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Ayers missed four games in 2015, but his production was highly impressive – he picked up a career-high 9.5 sacks and added 18 hurries, placing him between the likes of Chandler Jones (16) and Olivier Vernon (20).

Ayers, who also finished last year as PFF’s eighth-best edge rusher (110 qualifiers), is now on the Buccaneers’ books through 2018. But that doesn’t necessarily have to be the case – in the event of an appreciable decline in output, the Bucs will be able to move on from Ayers either after this season or after next without taking on any dead money. While Tampa Bay would rather see Ayers play well and remain in place for the duration of his three-year, $19.5MM deal, the fact that his contract has no cap ramifications past this season makes it a worthy gamble for the organization.

Joining Ayers in the Buccaneers’ front seven is 13th-year man Daryl Smith, who’s slated to start at strongside linebacker after dividing his first 12 seasons between Jacksonville and Baltimore. Notably, Smith played the first four years of his career under new Buccaneers defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who was the Jaguars’ defensive chief during those seasons. Daryl Smith enjoyed some fine seasons with the Jags, and he was particularly durable as a member of the Ravens. In Baltimore, Smith started in 48 straight games from 2013-15 and racked up 120-plus tackles in each of his three seasons with the club, while also combining for nine sacks and four forced fumbles. PFF was unimpressed with Smith’s play last year, though, as the outlet ranked him 71st among 97 qualified linebackers. The Ravens then cut Smith in early March, but based on his ability to stay on the field and produce, the Bucs made out well in signing the 34-year-old for a fairly meager sum of $2.5MM.

“Not only is he a really good football player, but once you get to know Daryl and the type of guy he is, I think Daryl will be a really good sounding board,” new head coach Dirk Koetter told Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report. “His experience and the players that he’s played with in his career, the things that he’s accomplished in his career, will do nothing but help Lavonte [David] and Kwon [Alexander] advance as players.”

Thanks largely to a weak secondary, Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-most touchdown tosses (31) and the second-highest passer rating (101.2) in the league last season. With that in mind, the club addressed the area over the winter by signing outside help (Brent Grimes and Josh Robinson) and re-upping Chris Conte, Bradley McDougald and Keith Tandy to new deals.

Grimes, a cornerback, is clearly the most accomplished member of the group, having started in 90 of 106 appearances with two teams – the Falcons and Dolphins – and totaling 26 interceptions since entering the league in 2007. Like Daryl Smith, Grimes also worked under Mike Smith previously. Grimes played in Atlanta from 2007-12, and Smith was the Falcons’ head coach in five of those six seasons. The rapport they established with the Falcons helped lead to a reunion in Tampa Bay.

“It’s a big deal for me, because I like the system,’’ Grimes told Roy Cummings of the Tampa Bay Times in March. “And one thing I know about Mike Smith is, he’s a great coach as far as everybody on the field knowing where they need to be and knowing what their assignment is, and he pays great attention to detail.”

After leaving Atlanta, Grimes was an impressive producer in Miami, where he started in all 47 appearances over the previous three seasons and picked off either four or five passes in each of those years (though he did yield a 103.2 passer rating against in 2015). Grimes is now in his age-33 season, so he’s unlikely to resemble a shutdown corner at this juncture. Still, as is the case with their other established veteran signings, the Bucs will have the option of waving goodbye to Grimes with no real harm done at season’s end. Regardless of whether Grimes sees his two-year deal with the Buccaneers through, the organization will hope his outspoken wife, Miko, is capable of avoiding controversy. She already made headlines for the wrong reasons last month, which wasn’t anything new.

While neither Robinson nor Tandy is expected to play a huge role at corner in Tampa Bay’s secondary this year, both Conte and McDougald have realistic chances to occupy the starting safety spots. Conte performed well in 2015, his first season with the Buccaneers, starting 13 of 14 appearances and totaling 79 tackles, three interceptions and two forced fumbles. The ex-Bear’s output also netted him a solid 32nd-place ranking among 88 qualifying safeties at PFF, and the Bucs elected to bring him back on a one-year deal. The team made the same decision with McDougald, whom it signed to a second-round tender for 2016. McDougald led the team’s defensive backs in snap percentage last season (81.2 percent), and he piled up 87 tackles and two interceptions along the way, but the Bucs haven’t been happy with his work this summer. However, with only flawed options behind McDougald, he’s a good bet to open the season as the club’s No. 1 free safety.

Connor Barth, K: Released
Da’Quan Bowers, DL
Bruce Carter, LB: Released
Larry English, DE
T.J. Fatinikun, DE
Mike Jenkins, CB
Jorvorskie Lane, FB
Danny Lansanah, LB
Logan Mankins, G: Retired
Tony McDaniel, DT
Henry Melton, DT
Sterling Moore, CB
Bobby Rainey, RB

After joining the Buccaneers via trade with New England in 2014, Mankins went on to start in all 31 of his appearances in Tampa Bay, where he continued his long run as one of the league’s premier guards. Depending on how Pamphile does filling in for Sweezy, Mankins’ exit could have a highly negative effect on the Buccaneers’ offense for at least the first few weeks of the upcoming season.

Defensively, the Buccaneers didn’t re-sign cornerback Sterling Moore after he started in nine of 16 appearances last season and led their underwhelming group of corners in snap percentage (64.9) and pass breakups (six). With the additions of Grimes and first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves III (more on him in a bit), the departure of the unspectacular Moore – now in Buffalo – shouldn’t serve as much of a hindrance in 2016. It might have made sense for the Bucs to re-sign the 26-year-old as depth, but that didn’t materialize.

In addition to Moore, Tampa Bay let defensive tackle Henry Melton walk after only one year with the team. A Pro Bowler with the Bears in 2012, Melton – who signed with the Broncos on Sunday – is a rotational player nowadays. Nevertheless, Melton partook in all 16 games of the Buccaneers’ games and finished fourth among their defensive linemen in snap percentage (46.5). Melton also logged two sacks and a pair of fumble recoveries, but PFF rated the 29-year-old a below-average 101st among 123 qualified interior D-linemen in overall performance. Without Melton and Tony McDaniel, who participated in over 26 percent of the Buccaneers’ defensive snaps in 2015 and signed with the Seahawks last week, the Bucs’ depth (or lack thereof) at D-tackle could be an issue. Of course, the anchor in the middle – Gerald McCoy – remains in place, and he helped Tampa Bay to the second-best YPC against (3.4) in the league last season.

Moving over to special teams, kicker Connor Barth converted a respectable 23 of 28 field goals and hit 25 of 26 extra points in 2015, but the Buccaneers went for what they hope will be a major upgrade in the draft and subsequently gave Barth his pink slip. Barth, who’s now with the NFC South rival Saints, made 85 percent of his field goals (91 of 108) in two different stints with the Bucs.

Trades:

Acquired a 2016 first-round pick (No. 11) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 106) from the Bears in exchange for a 2016 first-round pick (No. 9).
Acquired a 2016 second-round pick (No. 59) from the Chiefs in exchange for a 2016 third-round pick (No. 74) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 106).

Draft picks:

1-11: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB (Florida)
2-39: Noah Spence, DE (Eastern Kentucky)
2-59: Roberto Aguayo, K (Florida State)
4-108: Ryan Smith, DB (North Carolina Central)
5-148: Caleb Benenoch, T (UCLA)
6-183: Devante Bond, LB (Oklahoma)
6-197: Dan Vitale, FB (Northwestern)

Not only did the Buccaneers gain a fourth-round pick when they made a trade with the Bears and moved down two spots in the first round of this year’s draft, but they also ended up with ex-Florida cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III at No. 11 overall. So far, the decision is paying dividends. In the Buccaneers’ 27-21 preseason win over Jacksonville on Saturday, the Jags targeted Hargreaves three times and failed to complete a pass – unless completions to Hargreaves count. The 21-year-old intercepted two passes and hasn’t yet allowed a completion in two exhibition games. As a result, Hargreaves is PFF’s highest-rated preseason corner thus far.

In assessing Hargreaves, who picked off 10 passes in three seasons with the Gators, PFR scouting guru Dave-Te Thoma s wrote: “He will hustle and run down a ball carrier from across the field and seems to enjoy the contact in run force. He plays at full speed and few players in the game of football can match his quickness. He competes for the ball with no regard for his body.”

Twenty-eight picks after grabbing Hargreaves, the Buccaneers chose former Eastern Kentucky edge rusher Noah Spence, who drew first-round buzz before the draft. Spence fell thanks in part to character concerns, though, as multiple failed drug tests at Ohio State caused the Big Ten to declare him permanently ineligible in 2014. Spence then transferred to Eastern Kentucky, where he recorded 11.5 sacks last year. In 2013, his second and final season as a Buckeye, Spence accumulated 14 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. For the time being, the Bucs will use Spence in pass-rushing situations, Smith told Jenna Laine of ESPN.com earlier this month.

“We’re going to have to be very careful about what we’re going to ask him to do early on in the season,” said Smith.

On Spence, Thomas offered: “Despite his boneheaded mistakes off the field, Spence is an instinctive player, but not the type that will out-think himself on the field. He is a quick reactor to action in front of him and easily picks things up well, showing no problem taking plays from the chalkboard to the playing field. There should be no issues with him digesting a complicated playbook. Spence is reliable, works hard in the weight room, and is a self-starter. He takes well to hard coaching and is the unquestioned leader of the defensive unit. For his age, he had an advanced knack for reading the quarterback well, as it is rare to see him fooled by misdirection or play action.”

Not content to end up with just Spence in the second round, Licht swung a trade that sent a third- and fourth-rounder (Nos. 74 and 106) to the Chiefs for the 59th pick. In making that move, Licht paid a high price – 141 cents on the dollar – per Chase Stuart of Football Perspective. To Stuart (and most others), the move became that much more questionable when Licht used the selection on former Florida State kicker Roberto Aguayo, given that specialists aren’t exactly in demand that early. Licht then revealed in May that the Buccaneers placed a first-round grade on Aguayo, whose pro career has begun inauspiciously.

After missing an extra point in Tampa Bay’s preseason opener, Aguayo failed to convert two of his four field goal attempts in their second game over the weekend. There are now questions as to whether the Bucs will bring in a second kicker to compete with Aguayo, who’s coming off three straight first-team All-America seasons with the Seminoles.

Extensions and Restructures:

Demar Dotson, T: Extended through 2019. Three years, $16.5MM. $4.5MM guaranteed.

Earlier this month, the Buccaneers locked up their longest-tenured player, right tackle Demar Dotson, with a three-year extension that runs through the 2019 season. Dotson, who otherwise would’ve been a free agent next winter, joined the club in 2009 as an undrafted free agent from Southern Mississippi. After Dotson didn’t see much action during the first couple years of his career, he became a prominent member of the Buccaneers’ offense in 2012 and has since started 50 of 54 appearances. Only six of those appearances and three starts came during an injury-truncated 2015 for Dotson, who missed 10 games as a result of a sprained MCL. Healthy again, the soon-to-be 31-year-old is primed to start on the right side of the team’s line.

“He’s been a cornerstone player for us and our extensions that we’ve done here recently with Gerald (McCoy), Lavonte (David) and Doug (Martin), these guys all have one thing in common. They work their (tails) off and are very consistent players, very good players in the league, and you know what you’re getting out of them every day on the playing field, on the practice field,” Licht said of Dotson.

Other:

Promoted Dirk Koetter to head coach to replace Lovie Smith.
Hired Todd Monken as offensive coordinator to replace Dirk Koetter.
Hired Mike Smith as defensive coordinator to replace Leslie Frazier.
Hired Nate Kaczor as special teams coordinator to replace Kevin O’Dea.
Hired Broncos national scout John Spytek as director of player personnel to replace Jon Robinson, who left to become Titans’ GM.
Learned DE George Johnson would miss the season after fracturing his hip.
Learned G J.R. Sweezy is expected to be placed on the PUP list.
Signed 19 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

When the Buccaneers were 6-6 and in the playoff hunt last December, a January coaching change seemed out of the question. However, Year 2 of the Lovie Smith era concluded with four straight losses – three of which were one-score outcomes – and that was enough for Bucs brass to make a change. Part of the reason they moved on from Smith, perhaps, is that they didn’t want to let his offensive coordinator, Koetter, get away. With Koetter garnering head coaching consideration from other organizations, the Buccaneers tabbed him to succeed Smith. The 57-year-old Koetter worked as the Buccaneers’ O-coordinator for just one season, but the unit made obvious strides on his watch. After finishing 29th, 30th and 32nd in points, yardage and DVOA in 2014, the Bucs rose to 20th, fifth and 18th in those three categories last season.

Koetter, whose only previous head coaching experience came in the college ranks (he went a combined 66-44 at Boise State and Arizona State from 1998-2008), also helped guide Winston to a terrific showing. Winston started all 16 of the Bucs’ games, tossed 22 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, and became the youngest QB in NFL history (21) to eclipse the 4,000-yard mark.

Although Koetter is still calling the offensive plays in Tampa, he hired coordinator Todd Monken to assist him on that side of the ball. Like Koetter, Monken has experience as a college head coach, having spent the last three seasons in that role with Southern Mississippi. Monken’s familiarity with Koetter undoubtedly helped lead to his hiring — the two were on the Jaguars’ staff from 2007-10 (Koetter was the offensive coordinator, Monken the receivers coach).

Koetter also has prior ties to Smith, who hired Koetter to run the Falcons’ offense during the final three years of Smith’s tenure. The two were also on Jacksonville’s staff together in 2007. Smith is tasked with improving a defense that ended last season as a top 10 unit in terms of yardage allowed under predecessor Leslie Frazier, though that belied an 18th-place DVOA ranking and a 26th-place finish in points allowed.

End George Johnson was supposed to figure into Smith’s defense this year, but he went on season-ending injured reserve with a fractured hip earlier this month. Johnson participated in 39.4 percent of the Buccaneers’ defensive snaps in 2015 and racked up a pair of forced fumbles, but he failed to record a sack. Difficulty getting to the quarterback has been an issue at times for Johnson, who has gone without a sack in three of the four seasons in which he has seen action. In 2014, though, Johnson took down enemy QBs six times as a member of the Lions.

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Gerald McCoy, DT: $13,000,000
Vincent Jackson, WR: $12,209,778
Lavonte David, LB: $10,000,000
J.R. Sweezy, G: $9,500,000
Doug Martin, RB: $8,000,000
Brent Grimes, CB: $8,000,000
Robert Ayers, DL: $7,750,000
Alterraun Verner, CB: $6,750,000
Jameis Winston, QB: $5,761,654
Gosder Cherilus, T: $4,500,000

The Buccaneers did an adequate job of improving their roster during the offseason, and they did well in finding upgrades whose contracts won’t hurt them in the future. While the moves the Bucs made likely won’t be enough to help them break their playoff drought, further progress from Winston and a finish around the .500 mark would constitute a successful campaign. It would be unrealistic to expect more from a team that went 2-14 two years ago, has a rookie head coach and shares a division with the reigning NFC champion Panthers.

Information from Over the Cap, Spotrac, and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Beat: Jeff Schudel On The Browns

August 24th, 2016 at 9:40am CST by Zachary Links

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Browns with Jeff Schudel of the The News-Herald and Morning-Journal. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @jsproinsider and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: As expected, the Browns named RGIII as their starting quarterback this week. What are your expectations for him? Can he recapture some of the magic he showed early on in Washington?

Jeff Schudel; I do have high expectations for RG3, but that might be a relative term. He will become the Browns 25th starting quarterback in 18 years when he takes the first snap against the Eagles on Sept. 11, so if he manages to throw more touchdown passes than interceptions and win five or six games he’ll be a success. Griffin has surprised me with his running. I don’t expect him to run as much as he did in 2012 when he was a rookie with the Redskins, but Hue Jackson will design runs for him.

Zach Links: Speaking of the quarterback position, what do you think the Browns should do with Josh McCown? Should they continue to hold out for a third- or fourth-round pick from the Cowboys in a potential trade?

Jeff Schudel; In my opinion the Browns should not take less than a third for McCown. That is probably too steep for a quarterback that was 2-17 over the last two seasons, but he is worth more to the Browns as a backup than a fourth-round pick would be. The odds of RG3 making it through 16 games behind this offensive line are slim. Rookie Cody Kessler isn’t ready to play.

Zach Links: Are you optimistic about Josh Gordon‘s long-term prospects? Do you think he’ll get his off-the-field affairs in order and focus his full attention on football going forward?

Jeff Schudel; I do have faith in Josh Gordon. He has a strong support group within the Browns and he seems to be hanging around the right people. He is a smart young man who has done dumb things in the past. I think this is critical for Gordon’s success: He is suspended for the first four games of the regular season, but he can be around the team in meetings, the weight room and all activities except practice and games. It seems to me players with substance abuse problems have a much better chance of success if they can be around their support group.

Gordon knows this is his last chance. He will never be reinstated if he is suspended again. I am not speaking for the Browns, but one more strike and I could not imagine them giving him another chance. Goodell would, I presume, likely make their opinion irrelevant.

Zach Links: How will Desmond Bryant‘s absence affect Cleveland’s pass-rush?

Jeff Schudel; The Browns are thin behind Desmond Bryant. John Hughes is likely to end up with his job, but Hughes was absent from training camp from Aug. 2-16 for personal reasons involving a family member. He says he is back for good. Bryant had only six sacks, but that led the team in 2015. The Browns will have to get more from outside linebacker Paul Kruger (2.5 sacks last year) to minimize Bryant’s loss.

Zach Links: Out of the Browns’ 14 rookies, which ones are you especially excited about?

Jeff Schudel; Corey Coleman is going to be a productive player, but as the 15th overall pick and the first receiver off the board he should be. He is fast, tracks the ball well and can run after the catch.

Two later picks could also make an impact. Carl Nassib, the defensive end from Penn State picked in the third round, 65th overall, led the nation with 17.5 sacks past year. He has shown in preseason he can get to the quarterback in the NFL. He is playing against NFL backups for now and will have to prove he can succeed against front-line offensive tackles to get more playing time.

Rashard Higgins, a fifth-round receiver taken with the 172nd pick from Colorado State, could be a move-the-chains receiver. He runs precise routes, fights through traffic, and can catch the ball in a crowd.

Zach Links: What differences have you already noticed in Cleveland with Jackson at the helm?

Jeff Schudel; It is impossible not to notice a difference with Jackson running the show. He is more than an administrator. He actually coaches players if they aren’t doing something correctly. Players have bought into his coaching style.

I think it is significant that Jackson hired Ray Horton as defensive coordinator. Horton has credentials and experience to be a head coach. To me that means Jackson has enough confidence in himself that he isn’t afraid an assistant will take his job.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

August 23rd, 2016 at 8:53pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Many NFL observers had not only penciled in the Colts for a lengthy postseason run, but projected Andrew Luck to be among the league’s top contenders for the MVP award. Instead, Luck dealt with injuries (and wasn’t all that productive when he was on the field), and though backup Matt Hasselbeck played well at times, the offense couldn’t handle the loss of its starting quarterback, and finished 30th in DVOA. Indy’s defense was surprisingly competent (13th in DVOA), but that performance wasn’t enough to help the club finish better than 8-8, second in the AFC South.

Notable signings:

Dwayne Allen, TE: Four years, $29.4MM. $11.5MM guaranteed.
Patrick Robinson, CB: Three years, $14MM. $6MM guaranteed.
Adam Vinatieri, K: Two years, $6MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Scott Tolzien, QB: Two years, $3.5MM. $500K guaranteed.
Jordan Todman, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $480K guaranteed.
Antonio Cromartie, CB: One year $3MM. $250K guaranteed. $500K available via incentives.
Jack Doyle, TE: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
Robert Turbin, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.

The Colts and general manager Ryan Grigson have been active spenders during the last two free agent periods, as they’ve attempted to augment their roster with external additions. During the 2014-15 offseasons, Indianapolis handed out an average of $38.5MM in guaranteed money while inking veterans such as D’Qwell Jackson, Arthur Jones, Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and Trent Cole. This year, the club took a markedly different approach, limiting their free agent spending and disbursing less than $20MM in guarantees.

The majority of that money went towards re-signing one of the Colts’ own free agents, as the club hammered out a four-year deal to retain tight end Dwayne Allen. The 26-year-old is coming off a platform season during which he was not only hampered by ankle and calf injuries, but posted only 16 receptions for just over 100 yards and one touchdown, so it’s perhaps surprising that Allen is now among the 10 highest-paid tight ends on an annual basis.

But this contract was offered with an eye towards the future, as new Indy offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski — a former tight ends coach who often features the position in his scheme — reportedly told Allen that he’d be more involved in the club’s gameplan going forward. Allen has flashed before (he put up a 45/521/3 line during his rookie campaign), and as Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus noted at time of the signing, Allen has always graded out well as a blocker, both in the run and pass game.

The Colts’ only other notable re-signing was that of kicker Adam Vinatieri, with whom the club worked out a two-year deal. In 2015, Vinatieri connected on 25 of 27 field goal tries, for a 92.6% conversion rate. However, he did occasionally struggle with the longer extra point, missing three of 35 attempts. Still, there were few NFL kickers more reliable than Vinatieri, who is now third on the league’s list of all-time leading scorers. With 2,253 points, Vinatieri should be able to make a run at Morten Andersen (2,544) and Gary Anderson (2,434) as he plays out the final leg of his career.

On defense, Indianapolis found a cornerback who can slot in opposite Vontae Davis, as it agreed to terms with Patrick Robinson, who spent last season with the Chargers. A first-round pick of the Saints back in 2010, Robinson never broke out until heading to San Diego, as he started 10 games in 2015 and graded as the league’s No. 30 CB among 111 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus.

Because Davis lines up primarily on the right side, Robinson will see most of his time at left corner, although he is also capable of playing in the slot. As PFF’s Nathan Jahnke tweeted earlier this year, Robinson held quarterbacks to the third-worst rating (67.7) in the league when lined up in the slot. But with Darius Butler entrenched on the inside, Robinson will likely stay on the outside most of the time, something that Grigson confirmed when the 28-year-old was signed.

Joining Robinson in the secondary will be veteran corner Antonio Cromartie, who was just signed yesterday following news that Davis will miss at least the first month of the season with an ankle injury. Cromartie, a 10-year veteran and four-time Pro Bowler, has been on the open market since the Jets released him in February. That was the end of Cromartie’s second stint with New York, which lasted only one season. Pro Football Focus ranked him just 86th out of 111 qualified cornerbacks in 2015, but he’ll now likely be counted on to start for a quarter of the season at minimum.

While Indianapolis is planning on Robinson and Cromartie providing consistent production in the defensive backfield, the club is surely hoping that Scott Tolzien doesn’t see many — if any — snaps this year as he serves as Andrew Luck‘s backup at quarterback. Luck is coming off an injury-wrecked season, but the Colts were able to stay afloat thanks in some part to the play of Matt Hasselbeck.

Tolzien, meanwhile, doesn’t have anywhere close to the level of experience that Hasselbeck did, as Tolzien has only attempted 91 passes during his career. As such, it’s fair to wonder why Indy didn’t target a more high-profile backup signal-caller. But, as former Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore once said (in an extremely colorful way), clubs are usually finished if their starting quarterback goes down, so perhaps not investing in a No. 2 option is the smart strategy.

Indianapolis doesn’t have much depth behind Luck, and the club is also short on options behind running back Frank Gore, who is entering his age-33 season. Veteran free agent additions Jordan Todman and Robert Turbin, each of whom signed minimum salary benefit deals, both figure to make the roster and would likely share carries if Gore suffers an injury. However, 2016 undrafted free agent Josh Ferguson has been drawing rave reviews, and could leap both Todman and Turbin for playing time.

Continue reading about the Colts’ offseason…

Notable losses:

The Colts were always going to be forced to choose between tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, and according to Fleener, Indianapolis didn’t seem to struggle with their decision. “The Colts’ lack of interest and the Saints’ interest made going to New Orleans an easy choice,” Fleener told Mike Wells of ESPN.com earlier this year. Allen is probably the more complete tight end, but Fleener holds the advantage in terms of pure receiving talent, and he could be in line for a massive season catching passes from Drew Brees. Allen scored a slightly larger annual salary, but Fleener secured $3MM+ more in guaranteed money.

Indy’s passing attack will also be without veteran wide receiver Andre Johnson, who was released just one season into a three-year deal, meaning he earned $10MM+ for one campaign’s worth of work. Johnson, who has since signed with the division-rival Titans, posted the worst season of his career in 2015, struggling to create separation from defensive backs while managing only 503 receiving yards and two scores. The Texans looked to have made the right decision in parting ways with Johnson after 2014, and his deal with the Colts is just one more black mark on general manager Ryan Grigson‘s ledger. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has been incredibly productive on a per-play basis with Indy, was placed on injured reserve in November and hasn’t drawn any known interest on the open market.

Elsewhere on offense, veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck — who helped the Colts stay on the fringes of the playoff race despite a bundle of injuries — decided to retire, despite the fact that he posted relatively results in 2015. In eight starts, Hasselbeck posted a 5-3 record, completed 61% of his passes for 1,690 yards, and threw nine touchdowns against five interceptions. Although he likely would have been welcomed back for another season in Indianapolis, Hasselbeck instead chose to become an analyst for ESPN.

Center Khaled Holmes and guard Lance Louis spent more than 700 snaps trying to protect Hasselbeck, but neither will be back with the Colts in 2016. Both were slightly below-average players last season, but it was a tad surprising that Indy chose to cut ties with Holmes, who is still only 26 years old. Clearly, Holmes wasn’t going to continue to start after the Colts drafted Ryan Kelly in the first round, but he could have been a relatively valuable depth piece on an offensive line that has struggled with injuries.

On the defensive side of the ball, the most talented player walking out the door is linebacker Jerrell Freeman, who was lured to Chicago by a three-year, $12MM deal. There were conflicting reports as to whether the Colts were serious about retaining Freeman, a former CFLer who ranked as PFF’s No. 4 linebacker last season. While Freeman says Indianapolis never actually made him an offer, other reports indicated that the Colts proposed the same contract that he ultimately signed with the Bears.

Grigson has taken his fair share of heat for failed free agent signings, but Dwight Lowery, who agree to a minimum salary benefit contract prior to 2015, was a success story, as the veteran safety started all 16 games and served as a stabilizing presence in the secondary. However, Lowery is now 30 years old, so letting him walk and sign a three-year deal with the Chargers was also an idea I can get behind. Fellow defensive back Greg Toler is gone as well, but the Colts shouldn’t worry too much his loss, as he ranked about the six worst corners in the league last season, per PFF.

None of Bjoern Werner, Billy Winn, Jonathan Newsome, or Colt Anderson played more than 350 snaps on defense last year, and although all four played some sort of role on special teams, the Colts ranked in the middle of the pack on teams, so the club probably won’t miss anyone from this group. Werner, notably, is a former first-round pick who only posted 6.5 sacks in three seasons in Indy, while Anderson was part of perhaps the worst play in NFL history.

Trades:

Acquired a 2016 second-round pick (No. 57), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 125, and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 248) from the Packers in exchange for a 2016 second-round pick (No. 48).

Draft picks:

1-18: Ryan Kelly, C (Alabama)
2-57: T.J. Green, S (Clemson)
3-82: Le’Raven Clark, T (Texas Tech)
4-116: Hassan Ridgeway, DT (Texas)
4-125: Antonio Morrison, LB (Florida)
5-155: Joe Haeg, T (North Dakota State)
7-239: Trevor Bates, DE/OLB (Maine)
7-248: Austin Blythe, C (Iowa)

Offensive line has been an issue in Indianapolis since Andrew Luck entered the league in 2012, and the club has tried a variety of combinations in order to keep Luck upright. The front five hasn’t been stellar in the run game, either, as they ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric last season. With that in mind, the Colts used their first-round pick on center Ryan Kelly, whom some evaluators considered the most pro-ready offensive lineman in this year’s draft.

Kelly was immediately installed as Indy’s first-team center, and he should prove to be an upgrade over Khaled Holmes (who was waived) and Jonotthan Harrison. PFR’s scouting guru Dave-Te Thomas is a fan of Kelly, as well, writing that the Alabama alum will bring an “instant nastiness” to the Colts offensive line.

“Strength is needed [at center in the Colts’ scheme] in order to stall the bull rush and help in widening the rush lanes,” writes Thomas. “Quick feet and fluid retreat skills are required, as it is often the center that has to drop back and protect the pocket in passing situations. A long reach, firm anchor and great balance are important for the center, as he is usually asked to work in combination with his guards getting out in front on traps and pulls. These are all the traits that Kelly brings to the table…”

Second-rounder T.J. Green will also be expected to contribute from the get-go, as he’s penciled in as the Colts’ starting strong safety given that Clayton Geathers is still dealing with a foot injury. Defensive coordinator Ted Monachino says Green still has some work to do, but the former Clemson Tiger has a fan in Thomas. “Do not be fooled by Green’s lack of experience,” says Thomas. “He has keen football instincts and field awareness, showing good urgency taking proper angles to close and shows a good feel in zone coverage to pick up and anticipate on the switch-off and combo routes. He processes the action in front of him well and gets a quick jump on the ball in run support.”

Extensions and Restructures:

Andrew Luck, QB: Extended through 2021. Five years, $122.97MM. $47MM guaranteed.
Trent Cole, LB: Accepted pay cut, creating ~$1.5MM in cap space by lowering 2016 base salary from $4.25MM to $2MM. In exchange, will earn guaranteed $1MM roster bonus.
Arthur Jones, DL: Accepted pay cut, creating $2MM in cap space by lowering 2016 base salary from $4.5MM to $2.5MM. Can earn $2MM through roster bonuses and incentives.

The Colts made Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in NFL history on a per-year basis, but the deal still seems like an underpay, a conclusion reached by many league observers. Luck had all sorts of leverage during negotiations, even coming off a lost season, but he still failed to top the $25MM salary mark, a plateau that most believed he would easily reach. Additionally, Luck didn’t overtake Aaron Rodgers in terms of guaranteed money ($54MM to $47MM), a fact that’s even more stunning considering that Rodgers signed his extension three years ago.

Luck, whom the Colts chose No. 1 overall out of Stanford in the 2012 draft, completed just 55.3% of his passes and logged 15 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in his injury-riddled, seven-game fourth season. Prior to that, however, he led the league with 40 touchdown passes in 2014 and helped guide the Colts to an AFC title game berth. After going 2-14 in the bridge year between the Peyton Manning era and Luck’s tenure, the Colts posted three consecutive 11-5 seasons from 2012-2014. With Luck on the sideline for most of last season, Indy finished 8-8 and failed to make the playoffs.

All in all, the Colts look to have scored a team-friendly deal, and as Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star noted earlier this year, the contract doesn’t figure to negatively affect the club’s cap in years to come given that the league-wide salary cap will continue to rise. From Luck’s point-of-view, the pact ends one year after the CBA expires and a year before the current TV deals are done. Although Luck will be 32 then, he could be in line for a much larger deal on the other side of this lucrative extension.

Other:

Extended general manager Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano through 2019.
Hired Ted Monachino as defensive coordinator to replace Greg Manusky.
Hired former Dolphins HC Joe Philbin as offensive line coach.
Learned DL Arthur Jones would be suspended four games (PED policy).
Signed 21 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

In one of the most shocking turn of events during the offseason, the Colts retained both general manager Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano, ensuring that the pair of decision-makers are now “contractually tied” through 2019, as owner Jim Irsay put it. Despite the duo’s success together, nearly every indication was that Pagano was certainly on his way out, while Grigson was also a candidate to be fired. Pagano and Grigson’s relationship was reportedly “toxic,” and the two lacked any sort of communication throughout the season, but it seems as though the pair’s record together — 41-23 — won out over any sort of personal conflict.

Pagano will have several new coaches working under him, including one, defensive coordinator Ted Monachino, with whom he has prior experience. Monachino was Baltimore’s linebackers coach when Pagano was the club’s DC, so the two should be on the same page in terms of scheme and personnel. Former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin, meanwhile, will be tasked with overhauling an offensive line that has struggled to maintain any semblance of continuity during Pagano’s tenure.

Finally, veteran defensive lineman Arthur Jones will miss the first four games of the season after being popped for PEDs, but it’s hard to say that Jones will represent a major loss for the Colts. After coming over from Baltimore before the 2014 season, Jones has been either ineffective or hurt (he missed all of last year with injury), and was forced to take a paycut earlier this year. Fourth-rounder Hassan Ridgeway looks like the biggest beneficiary of Jones’ absence, as the could take over the starting role for the first quarter of the season, and perhaps beyond.

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Andrew Luck, QB: $18,400,000
T.Y. Hilton, WR: $11,000,000
Anthony Castonzo, T: $9,800,000
Dwayne Allen, TE: $8,906,250
Vontae Davis, CB: $8,375,000
Gosder Cherilus, T: $5,800,000 (dead money)
D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
Trent Cole, LB: $5,903,750
Robert Mathis, LB: $5,000,000
Erik Walden, LB: $4,250,000

This offseason, the Colts stopped trying to improve their club by signing over-the-hill veterans, and instead sought to augment their roster through a few cheap free agent contracts and the draft. The AFC South hasn’t gotten any easier, as the Texans may have found a quarterback and the Jaguars supplemented their defense, but as long as Indianapolis has its franchise quarterback in Andrew Luck, contention should be within the club’s grasp.

Information from Over the Cap, Spotrac, and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Beat: Will Leitch On The Cardinals

August 23rd, 2016 at 11:40am CST by Zachary Links

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with writers and columnists from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Cardinals with Will Leitch. Will is a senior writer for Sports on Earth, a contributing editor for New York Magazine, and hosts the daily podcast “The Will Leitch Experience.” You can follow Will on Twitter @WilliamFLeitch.

Zach Links: Like many Cardinals fans, you were puzzled by Carson Palmer‘s collapse in last season’s playoffs. This offseason, the Cardinals tied themselves to the veteran through 2018 with an extension. How do you feel about Palmer as the Cards’ QB heading into this season?

Will Leitch: Yeah, he was a nightmare in the playoffs, like he’d forgotten everything that had made him and the team great throughout the season. You’d actually seen that in the Packers game, some dunderheaded mistakes that weren’t indicative of how he played in the regular season, but I thought it was attributable to him still not having that playoff-victory monkey off his back. And then he was ten times worse against Carolina. So, yeah, it’s worrisome, but not NEARLY as worrisome as it would have been if Palmer hadn’t have come back, or if he gets hurt. Palmer is the perfect fit for this offense — the only thing that isn’t perfect is that he isn’t 27 — but more to the point, he’s the only available fit for this offense. As bad as the playoffs were, the team would be completely lost without him. I’m terrified that he goes down in Week Two and the whole team implodes. The Cardinals have had some truly awful quarterbacking over the last decade; I’m twitching just thinking about it. No offense to Drew Stanton, but yes: Palmer is the whole sandwich here.

Continue reading our Q&A with Will Leitch..

Zach Links: Before the extensions for Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, there was speculation that 2016 could be the final season for both players. Despite the deals, do you think we might see one or both of them call it quits after this year?

Will Leitch: It would require a career-ending injury for Palmer. Fitzgerald was surprisingly great last year, but he’s obviously not the player he was, overtime against the Packers aside. He’s a slot guy, and while he serves that role well now, you can see him fading a little more each year. He’s awesome, but he’s still a 33-year-old WR.I think the bigger issue with him is if the Cardinals can win a title. It’s clear the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers still kills him — I know how he feels — and he desperately wants a title to go into the Hall with. If he gets one, I can see him retiring on the spot.

Zach Links: The Cardinals shocked everyone in March when they acquired Chandler Jones via trade from the Patriots. What kind of impact do you expect Jones to have this year?

Will Leitch: Oh, we’re very excited. The one thing the Cardinals weren’t terrific at last year was rushing the passer, so Jones is ideal. Now, I get a little nervous when Bill Belichick gives up on a player, but he’s exactly what we were clamoring for. If he’s three-quarters of what he was last year, we might be monsters.

Zach Links: The Cardinals left St. Louis when you were 12 years old, but you remained a fan when they relocated to Phoenix. You’ve made the case that it’s easy for Rams fans to do the same in 2016 thanks to the internet and NFL Sunday Ticket. Do you expect that the Rams will have a lasting contingent of fans in St. Louis? Or will most Missourians wind up being football widows?

Will Leitch: Well, Stan Kroenke was such a monumental asshole on his way out the door that I don’t think any St. Louis fan wants anything to do with the team, and I don’t blame them. Good riddance. If they want to remain Rams fans, they can, but if they’re playing the nostalgia game, we’d love to have them back. At least the Bidwills didn’t excrete in the Mississippi River on their way out of town.

Zach Links: How do you see this year playing out for the Cardinals? Will they win the NFC West? Do you see them in the Super Bowl mix?

Will Leitch: I think they’re a complete team, but the two things that scare me the most remain issues: 1. Palmer’s injury history (again, we’re toast without him), and 2. the Seattle Seahawks. I’d argue the three best teams in football are all in the NFC: The Cardinals, the Seahawks, and the Panthers. The Seahawks caught some bad breaks last year, but they’re machines. I might pick them to win the division. Then we get the Cardinals-Seahawks NFC Championship game we’re all desperate for. (It would be so amazing.) Unless Palmer gets hurt. If that happens, well, I hope we stay ahead of the 49ers.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images and PFR on Instagram.

Bears Work Out Cary Williams

August 22nd, 2016 at 10:22am CST by Zachary Links

The Bears recently worked out free agent cornerback Cary Williams, a source tells PFR’s Dallas Robinson (on Twitter).

Williams, 31, signed a three-year deal with the Seahawks prior to the 2015 season. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned and Seattle cut him loose after ten games. Pro Football Focus ranked the veteran 102nd out of 118 qualified cornerbacks at the time of his release last month. Williams was inactive for his final two games with the Seahawks before he was cut. In January, Williams hooked on with the Redskins and appeared in their lone playoff game.

Williams didn’t play his best football in Seattle, but he does offer plenty of experience with 75 starts on his resume. Now, he’s looking for his next NFL opportunity and the Bears could have interest.

As shown on Roster Resource, the Bears currently have reserves Bryce Callahan, Deiondre’ Hall, Sherrick McManis, Demontre Hurst, and others behind starters Kyle Fuller and Tracy Porter. Williams could provide veteran leadership in that group following Brandon Boykin‘s season-ending injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

August 22nd, 2016 at 8:40am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Vernon Hargreaves III, CB (Florida, No. 11 overall)

Hargreaves shows above average body control and does a nice job of keeping his feet on the move. He shows good agility and balance, but needs to redirect and change direction skills better when challenging the receivers running deep routes along the perimeter. Still, he shows explosion out of his plant and is a quick twitch type who shows good alertness vs. plays in front of him. When beaten, he has that sudden burst to recover. His quickness in transition prevents smaller receivers from getting good position working underneath vs. him.

Hargreaves is a mentally tough athlete and solid hitter who could play inside at safety, if needed. Still, his primary position with the Bucs will be cornerback. He will hustle and run down a ball carrier from across the field and seems to enjoy the contact in run force. He plays at full speed and few players in the game of foot-ball can match his quickness. He competes for the ball with no regard for his body.

With his exceptional speed. Hargreaves has no problem maintaining inside position when challenging a receiver in man coverage, especially when working along the sidelines. He has the speed, closing burst and ball reaction skills to stay tight with any opponent, whether they are quick and fast or tall and physical. He needs to improve his strength base, so not to get backed off by the bigger receivers at the next level, but has the frame to add the power needed.

Hargreaves will be a starter right off the bat for the Bucs and anyone who doubts his ability clearly wasn’t watching Saturday night’s preseason contest against the Jaguars. Hargreaves picked off opposing quarterback Chad Henne twice, helping Tampa Bay to a 27-21 victory.

Click here to continue reading about the Bucs’ rookie class..

Second Round – Noah Spence, DE (Eastern Kentucky, No. 39 overall)

Multiple drug test failures brought Spence’s Ohio State career to an end prior to the 2014 season, forcing him to sit out the year before he was accepted at Eastern Kentucky. Spence knew this was his “last chance saloon,” at EKU. He made the most of that opportunity, leading the Football Championship Subdivision with 22.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage while placing second with 11.5 sacks. He added 63 tackles through eleven games along with fifteen QB pressures and three forced fumbles. His average of 2.25 tackles-for-loss per game is the 18th-best figure in NCAA FCS history.

Spence then faced his biggest challenge – scouts and coaches at the 2016 Senior Bowl grill session. He handled himself well under a slew of questions about his troubling 2014 season. He then went out on the field at Mobile and simply dominated. By the end of the Senior Bowl practices, he was the near unanimous choice by NFL decision makers when it came to naming the top defensive performer at the event. Many teams wondered if the college rush end could make a successful transition to professional outside linebacker. The Bucs didn’t have that dilemma, however, as they felt comfortable with using him as a DE at the next level.

Despite his “bonehead mistakes” off the field, Spence is an instinctive player, but not the type that will out-think himself on the field. He is a quick reactor to action in front of him and easily picks things up well, showing no problem taking plays from the chalkboard to the playing field. There should be no issues with him digesting a complicated playbook. Spence is reliable, works hard in the weight room, and is a self-starter. He takes well to hard coaching and is the unquestioned leader of the defensive unit. For his age, he had an advanced knack for reading the quarterback well, as it is rare to see him fooled by misdirection or play action.

Spence is quite effective using his strong hand punch to shed blocks, but it is his ability to jam/reroute receivers that will earn him success when utilized as a 3-4 strong-side linebacker at the next level. He has no problem holding up tight ends and slot receivers in the short area passing game. He is an active, fend-off type of defender that will shock-and-jolt versus offensive linemen, as he also knows how to deliver a blow and is quick to get placement when trying to grab and jerk on the opponent’s jersey. When he keeps his pads down and hands inside the framework, he can clear blocks and get to the ball regularly. Even when his pad level gets high at times, he has a very good punch and extension to defeat the blocks. He uses his hands well with good placement, but does struggle some to shed and escape at times (mostly when working in-line). He has very good rip and pull moves, along with the ability to get active with his hands when attempting to separate vs. the blockers on inside running plays.

The Bucs plan on using Spence off the bench in his rookie season, playing in support of William Gholston and free agent addition Robert Ayers. Ayers put up some gaudy sack numbers with the Giants last season and Spence may be able to get some numbers of his own in this bookend rotation.

Second Round – Roberto Aguayo, K (Florida State, No. 59 overall)

Finally, I get to write about a kicker in this series!

Ask anyone in the scouting industry and they will tell you that lightning struck twice. More than a decade after Al Davis selected Sebastian Janikowski in the first round, an FSU player was unanimously dubbed as the best placekicker in his draft. Statistically, the Seminole is the most accurate kicker in the history of the college game. For his career, he tallied 405 points, making all 198 of his conversion tries and 69-of-78 field goals (88.46%) in three seasons.

Aguayo became the second Seminole in program history to be a three-time first-team All-American, joining Deion Sanders. Last season, he was named a semifinalist for the Lou Groza Award and finished the schedule going 21-for-26 on field goals, hitting his two longest (45 and 51 yards) vs. Florida in the regular season finale in Gainesville. He also connected on all 49 PAT chances during his redshirt junior season, placing second on the team in points with 112. He ranked fifth in the Atlantic Coast Conference in field goal percentage (.808) and field goals per game (1.62) and sixth in scoring (8.6 ppg).

While most kickers have a small frame, Aguayo stand 6’0″ and weighs 207. He shows good muscle tone, firm midsection and proper thigh and calf development. He’s very poised under pressure, showing great confidence in his ability to kick for distance and in poor weather conditions. He has tunnel vision on the field, blocking out all distractions and demonstrates pretty decent speed and urgency getting down field to help the kickoff coverage unit.

Aguayo has the quickness, balance, agility and leg flexibility to put full force behind his kicks from either hash, as he hits the ball with a quick stride, showing steady acceleration and trajectory on his attempts. He displays excellent mechanics and in a pinch, he can handle the multiple kicking chores, along with connecting with the ball with very good pop on contact during kickoffs, field goals and extra points. He has shown marked improvement getting his kickoffs to sail through the end zone (123-of-287 attempts resulted in touchbacks, 42.86%) and while he’s never been used for punting duties, he has the ability to field snaps with ease and can adjust to the off-target snap.

Aguayo can drive the ball deep on kick-offs, even when making attempts into the wind. He shows very good strength on contact with the ball, driving it deep and with great hang time. He is the type that can consistently get the ball into the end zone on kickoffs and has the range to make field goals from the 50-yard area. Each year, he has developed quicker steps to the ball, as he starts his motion early, giving him good snap-to-toe timing (1.29 second on field goals/1.21 on PATs).

The ball can explode off his foot and he has showed good improvement with his trajectory over the years (hang time was as low as 3.84 seconds earlier in his career, but his kickoffs averaged 4.28-4.54 seconds in 2015). The ball jumps off his foot with good rise on field goals/PATs, as he can generate good lift upon contact. He puts some nice air under his kick-offs and is not prone to kicking line drives. He also demonstrates the ability to kick off towards the corners or let the ball sail out of the end zone.

Aguayo can kick from both hashes effectively and he makes proper adjustments in his approach to the ball, based on field and weather conditions. He’s poised and in control in pressure situations, showing confidence and concentration coming through in the clutch. He’s also a tough open field tackler who will square up, wrap and secure with good pop on contact. He has the loose hips to recover when he’s juked by a returner and is not afraid to stick his hat into the pile.

For what it’s worth, Aguayo seems to be having some hiccups in preseason, but we’re hoping that he’s just getting the rookie jitters out of his system in advance of the regular season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Beat: Troy Renck On The Broncos

August 21st, 2016 at 9:30pm CST by Zachary Links

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Broncos with Troy Renck of Denver7. You can follow Troy on Twitter @TroyRenck (Note: The conversation took place on Friday, prior to the Broncos’ Saturday’s preseason game against the 49ers).

Zach Links: Is Ronnie Hillman in danger of not making the team? Are you surprised by him being on the roster bubble?

Troy Renck: Yes, Hillman is in real danger of not making the cut. He is competing against Kapri Bibbs who has kick return ability and it is hard to see both players making it. Bibbs is a more versatile special teams guy than Hillman is and they are really intrigued by Devontae Booker’s potential.

Zach Links: At what point did you realize that Hillman could be a roster casualty?

Troy Renck: As soon as they drafted Booker. Hillman went out into free agency and, unfortunately for him, he played his worst football in the playoffs. That was everyone’s last view of him and when he found a tepid market, he came back to Denver on a cheap deal. In my opinion, they re-signed Hillman to protect themselves in the draft so that they didn’t have to reach for a running back. Luckily for them, they got Booker.

Zach Links: What does Vance Walker’s absence mean for the Broncos? How might they look to fill the void?

Troy Renck: It hurts. He was already the guy filling in for Malik [Jackson] and he’s a really good run stuffer and a versatile guy. They signed Jared Crick and they’re hopeful that he can be an every down guy. It also puts the onus on Darius Kilgo. They need him to step up and provide real depth. Overall, it’s an area of concern for sure.

Zach Links: Who do you think should start at quarterback for the Broncos in Week 1?

Troy Renck: I don’t know the answer to that yet. It’s just such a huge game for Trevor Siemian on Saturday for me. He is likely to get a quarter and half with the starters and, if he nails it, he has the edge. It’s no longer like Sanchez controls his own destiny. If Siemian nails his performance, he’s the leader. The easy bet would have been Sanchez because of the experience, but obviously there hasn’t been enough distance between the two since April to make that a lock.

Zach Links: Which Broncos rookies do you think could contribute right away?

Troy Renck: Andy Janovich. He’s going to be their starting fullback right off the bat. He’s been impressing on special teams. Booker’s ability in pass protection has surprised me, he’s much more advanced in that area than I expected.

I’m also encouraged by Paxton Lynch’s progress. He’s really taken to the team’s coaching and so far so good with him. I think Lynch is their best athlete at the position and when he has to color outside of the lines, he is the best. He’s not ready yet to run the offense, but he has been impressive.

Zach Links: How do you see this season playing out? Can the Broncos repeat as champs?

Troy Renck: I don’t see a Super Bowl title for Denver but I see a team that can go 11-5 and get back to the playoffs. I don’t know that they can get home field advantage and that hurts. A lot of things fell into place for the Broncos last year. They set a record for games won by seven points or less, which demonstrates that they had some good breaks. They created some of those breaks for themselves, of course, but they won on really close games.

I think their defense is going to be outstanding, but I don’t know if they have enough to get home field advantage to get them though the playoffs. It could be a hard road through the playoffs, but I see a playoff team and a team that can win the division for the sixth-straight year.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

10 Teams That Could Claim RB Karlos Williams

August 21st, 2016 at 6:28pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After waiving him yesterday, the Bills “fully expect” another NFL club to land running back Karlos Williams, and we’ll find out tomorrow if any other team decided to place a claim (the waiver period is typically 24 hours, but rolls over until Monday on weekends). If no one else is interested, Williams will become a free agent. But given that Williams’ (minimal) signing bonus will accelerate onto Buffalo’s cap –meaning that any acquiring team would only be on the hook for minimum salaries for the next three years — it seems likely that Williams will get claimed.

Clearly, there are reasons to be concerned about Williams’ future. He’ll be suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season after violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and he’s struggled with his weight throughout the offseason. At one point, Williams was up 261 pounds, and after losing some of that heft, he’d reportedly begun to balloon once again, leaving the Bills to wonder if he was serious about football.

But Williams also flashed dynamic ability during his rookie season, finishing with 613 yards from scrimmage and nine TDs on just 104 touches while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The 23-year-old also became one of just two players in NFL history to score a touchdown in each of his first six games in the league. All in all, Williams seemingly defines an old adage: high risk, high reward.

Let’s take a look at several teams that could be interested in Williams, listed in order of their waiver priority:

Cleveland Browns — New head coach Hue Jackson is trying to foster a new culture with the Browns, but he’s also shown a willingness to give players a second chance. He’s embraced wide receiver Josh Gordon, who was recently reinstated from a season-long suspension, and he stood by running back Isaiah Crowell after the latter posted a disturbing image online. Crowell and Duke Johnson figure to get most of the run for Cleveland during the upcoming season, but the club should be stockpiling talent during its rebuild, and Williams would be a cheap upgrade.

San Diego Chargers — San Diego had high hopes for its rushing attack after trading up to select Melvin Gordon in the first round of last year’s draft, but offensive line injuries and Gordon’s own poor play led to the Chargers finishing 31st in rushing DVOA. Gordon then had microfracture surgery in January, and while his long-term prognosis is positive, serious knee injuries are always unwelcome news for young running backs. It looks like Gordon is already losing work to Danny Woodhead during the preseason, and if the Chargers think Gordon is in for another sub-par season, they could take a risk on Williams.

Baltimore Ravens — This is only my speculation, but given that he’s on the wrong side of 30, coming off injury, and due a non-guaranteed $3MM base salary, veteran running back Justin Forsett could be a surprise cut as roster cutdowns approach. Such a move would be made much easier if the Ravens were able to acquire a talent like Williams, who could slot in the backfield after his suspension, teaming with Javorius Allen, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, and perhaps Lorenzo Taliaferro. Baltimore has taken chances on character risks in the past, though the club was burned by safety Will Hill, with whom they cut ties after he was handed a 10-game suspension.

Philadelphia Eagles — Like the Browns, the Eagles haven’t been afraid to collect players who are considered character risks, as evidenced by their trade for receiver Dorial Green-Beckham last week. Philadelphia is hoping it can turn around the career of DGB, who struggled with both motivation and learning the Titans’ playbook, and they could place a similar bet on Williams. Like DGB, Williams clearly has talent, and the Eagles could use another option alongside Ryan Mathews, Kenjon Barner, Darren Sproles, and Wendell Smallwood. Turron Davenport of USA Today recently looked at how Williams could succeed in the type of outside zone runs employed by the Eagles.

New York Giants — The Giants have a stable of running backs available, with veteran Rashad Jennings leading the way for a crew that also contains Shane Vereen, Andre Williams, rookie Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa, and Bobby Rainey, not all of whom will make the the final squad. But New York can feature a lot of backs who play specific roles, they don’t have one who looks like a bell-cow (perhaps outside of Jennings, who is 31 years old), nor does the club have a runner with the singular talent of Williams. However, given that Big Blue is dealing with backlash after domestic violence revelations regarding kicker Josh Brown came to light, they may not want to deal with Williams, who was investigated for domestic violence at Florida State (though no charges were filed).

Oakland Raiders — The domestic violence caveat applies in Oakland, as well, as the club’s ownership group has exhibited a zero tolerance policy for such actions. But since Williams was never found guilty, or even charged, perhaps that code wouldn’t apply. The Raiders seemed intent on adding another running back this offseason even though Latavius Murray was one of only seven backs to rush for more than 1,000 yards in 2015, and expressed interest in both Doug Martin and DeMarco Murray before using a fifth-round pick on DeAndre Washington.

Detroit Lions — We’ll mention the domestic violence accusations levied against Williams one final time, as Lions general manager Bob Quinn — who said when hired that he would “not stand for” DV or dangerous weapons — recently drew some ire for signing tight end Andrew Quarless, who had been arrested on a gun charge in 2015. But after finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing yards a year ago, Detroit didn’t do much to address its backfield, adding only Stevan Ridley (free agency) and Dwayne Washington (draft). the Lions were set to work out Arian Foster before he signed with the Dolphins, so they’re clearly still in the market for running back help. Plus, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press tweets, Quinn knows Williams from the duo’s time in the AFC East.

Indianapolis Colts — The Colts spent the offseason adding to their offensive line rather than looking for legitimate backup to play behind veteran running back Frank Gore. Gore is now 33 years old, and though he’s been extremely durable throughout his career, Indianapolis would have to turn to Robert Turbin, Jordan Todman, or Josh Ferguson if Gore went down. Williams wouldn’t need to play right away with the Colts, and he’d give the club a young back to pair with the rest of their youthful offense.

Washington Redskins — Second-year back Matt Jones is locked in as Washington’s starter in 2016, but he sprained an AC joint during Friday’s preseason game. Head coach Jay Gruden doesn’t expect Jones to miss much time, but if that changes, the Redskins don’t have many other options, with third-down back Chris Thompson joined on the roster by Rob Kelley, Keith Marshall, and Mack Brown. General manager Scot McCloughan isn’t big on off-field concerns, and as JP Finlay of CSNMidAtlantic.com writes, the Redskins would probably prefer to add a more experienced back who can play immediately.

New England Patriots — It’s doubtful that Williams fall far enough on the waiver wire to reach the Patriots, but New England could certainly use another running back, especially considering today’s news that Dion Lewis will be out 8-10 weeks after undergoing another knee operation. Even with Lewis sidelined, the Pats still have LeGarrette Blount, Tyler Gaffney, James White, Brandon Bolden, and Donald Brown on the roster, but Williams offers more ability than anyone in that group. If Bill Belichick thinks he can motivate Williams, the former Bill would be a solid add in New England.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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